politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment
Those of us who are old enough remember the great Labour Sheffield rally before the 1992 General Election which came over in the media as a celebration of the victory that the party presumed was going to happen the following Thursday.
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First?
And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.0 -
I'd be very surprised if he does not win in Gordon but I suspect that his arrogance resonates much less well outside Scotland. It could push some wanderers back to the Conservatives.0
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Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.JosiasJessop said:First?
And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.
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Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.0
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But this is hardly the same, is it? 2012 were just 'ordinary' local elections, whilst, the indy ref appears to have totally changed the Scottish political landscape. The question is how long that change will last.MikeSmithson said:
Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.JosiasJessop said:First?
And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.
I'm on the record as saying things will not be as bad for Scottish Labour as the polls currently show (*), but it feels, to me at least, that current events are bigger than any one person's comments can derail.
There are greater forces at work.
(*) AIUI, the majorities are so large in some Scottish Labour constituencies that an unwinding of just a few percent could take many out of the SNP's hands. This has to be what Murphy and co. are working towards. Is there an easily-accessible table / chart anywhere showing the current Scottish majorities for all seats?0 -
More like Dwayne Dibleys Sheffield moment by proxy. He is now playing the price for not ruling out working with Salmond. Sure he ruled out a coalition but nothing about ruling out supply and confidence.
SNP are the new Militant Tendancy worming their way into Labour it seems.0 -
youtu.be/7TOgB3Smvro?t=1m30s0
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FPT
Didn't realise she had lost that power. Which PM did that to her?david_herdson said:
I would agree with that.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Thirty years ago when I was at Croydon college we had a general studies lecturer who was a liberal councillor in Kingston. We had an interesting discussion one day as to whether she could dissolve parliament to stop a perfidious government in its tracks.notme said:
I think the fact that *she* could intervene is enough to make a government think twice. Its something a monarch could only get away with once, and i doubt it would happen. What would happen is that in their weekly chats, she would express her displeasure. By all accounts she is extremely intelligent and astute. No PM would be crazy enough to go to the wire with her, there would be compromise, all done entirely in private.Paul_Mid_Beds said:Actually I jest a little re:
"If I was Major, I would have repealed the Parliament Act in 1996 and replaced it with an act disbarring all life peers and prohibiting any more hereditary peers to be created except when a line dies out and needing an 80% majority in both houses to repeal. That would have stopped Brown opening the spending spigots in 2001."
Do you think if a government actually did that the Monarch would intervene?
He was of the opinion that she could de jure but only de facto if it was a matter of critical importance that the people - and armed forces who are hers not parliaments - would support. The example he gave was if a government attempted to repeal the representation of the people act to avoid submitting themselves for re election.
Would certainly be interesting if she went all Charles II.
Well, almost. Thirty years ago, the better reserve power to use would be to dissolve parliament on her own initiative in that situation. One would assume that the other main parties would oppose the controversial measure and that it was a critical issue in the public's mind. If either wasn't the case, it'd be near-enough impossible to justify an extraordinary use of a reserve power but assuming both were, then it would be better put to the electorate than vetoing outright.
However, now that she doesn't have that power any more, the veto would be the only option.
That said, if she had the army and people on her side she could regain it pretty sharpish.0 -
I think it's likely to go down very badly with English voters - and we can be sure they won't be voting SNP.0
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Paul [6.16 am] I think the relevant precedent is Greece in 1967.0
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Which "English parties" would they be? Scotland doesn't belong to the SNP.Innocent_Abroad said:Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.
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Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :
26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds0 -
There seems to be a misunderstanding in all the commentary in England on Salmond' speech that they are dealing with a Miliband or a Cameron. Someone who will gaffe and say things they don't intend to, someone flustered in a moment where they lose control.
A man who has grown the SNP from a Fringe Party to a natural party of government.
A man who has taken the desire of the Scottish public for full Independence from around 15% when he first became leader to solidly 48% today.
A man who in the two year Indyref campaign grew the Yes vote from around 25% to 45%.
A man who ran a minority government for four years in the teeth of a hostile Labour Party who only had ONE seat less than the SNP but never dared to try and vote him down.
A man who delivered the utterly unthinkable and won a majority in an AMS D'Hondt PR electoral system - a system specifically designed and chosen so he could NEVER win a majority.
When Salmond does an interview on The Andrew Marr show he knows exactly what he will say. He knows exactly how the London press corps will cover it. He knows exactly how it will play out back home. This is a man who regularly does the unthinkable not because it is impossible but because his opponents haven't ever considered he could.
If you think the answer to the SNP problem is that Salmond will gaffe, the electorate will reject them and Scotland will go back in its box.... you've been asking the wrong question.0 -
They'd be the parties that have their real HQs in London, Jack. Although it's possible that Mr Murphy has a fall-back position of Ulsterizing Glasgow politics with himself as the leader of the Caledonian branch of Sinn Fein...JackW said:
Which "English parties" would they be? Scotland doesn't belong to the SNP.Innocent_Abroad said:Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.
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Will this now be the "If you want the Scotsnats as a neighbour vote Labour" election?
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Well yes, why would he actually want to be propping up a probably extremely unpopular Labour Govt? Much better to have the Conservatives in power with the SNP (despite holding almost all Scottish seats) powerless to stop them doing what they want.PeterC said:
Which is of course exactly what he wants.felix said:I'd be very surprised if he does not win in Gordon but I suspect that his arrogance resonates much less well outside Scotland. It could push some wanderers back to the Conservatives.
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At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.
Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.0 -
I suspect that's exactly what he wants as it gives him a huge chance of winning a thumping majority in Holyrood next year and then winning the independence referendum he demands and gets off the back of it - or declaring UDI with popular support if Cameron refuses it.alex. said:
Well yes, why would he actually want to be propping up a probably extremely unpopular Labour Govt? Much better to have the Conservatives in power with the SNP (despite holding almost all Scottish seats) powerless to stop them doing what they want.PeterC said:
Which is of course exactly what he wants.felix said:I'd be very surprised if he does not win in Gordon but I suspect that his arrogance resonates much less well outside Scotland. It could push some wanderers back to the Conservatives.
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The bigger impact might be South of the Border.0
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Here you go:JosiasJessop said:
But this is hardly the same, is it? 2012 were just 'ordinary' local elections, whilst, the indy ref appears to have totally changed the Scottish political landscape. The question is how long that change will last.MikeSmithson said:
Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.JosiasJessop said:First?
And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.
I'm on the record as saying things will not be as bad for Scottish Labour as the polls currently show (*), but it feels, to me at least, that current events are bigger than any one person's comments can derail.
There are greater forces at work.
(*) AIUI, the majorities are so large in some Scottish Labour constituencies that an unwinding of just a few percent could take many out of the SNP's hands. This has to be what Murphy and co. are working towards. Is there an easily-accessible table / chart anywhere showing the current Scottish majorities for all seats?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1YndxUDVSWjI0d1k/view?usp=sharing0 -
Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.antifrank said:At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.
Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.
Comedy Gold.0 -
The SNP could kill Labour in England and Wales.
If the only way they can legislate is with SNP help, they're done for. Similarly, if Labour rely on Tory help to legislate over Scotland, the same is on the cards there.
The debate format is a terrible one for Labour. Farage and Sturgeon present, and everything potentially turning into England/Wales v Scotland.0 -
I saw Salmond's interview yesterday. He was funny polite and engaging. To stick up the Daily Mail and pretend that it reflects anything close to reality is a new low for Mike.0
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The difference with Sheffield is that I do not see this hurting the SNP. Labour, on the other hand, I would not be so sure about.
I heard a snippet over the weekend of Salmond saying he had checked his top pocket and as far as he could see Ed wasn't there. He didn't seem to regard it as much of a loss but the line that if you want a real left wing government you should vote SNP is consistent with SNP tactics to date and an effective line for the SNP to take in Scotland. Sturgeon has quipped before being more left wing than Labour was so easy even John Swinney (her Finance Minister) could manage it.
The Tory poster was one of the more effective of recent times. This can hurt Labour in England. I got a Tory e-mail about it over the weekend as well. It is a point that they are pushing hard and it plays into the Ed is weak meme very effectively. Since the SNP priority is to destroy SLAB Labour will get hit from both ends with this. There is a mutuality of interest between the SNP and the Tories that will keep this running.
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The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.0
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Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.Dair said:
Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.antifrank said:At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.
Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.
Comedy Gold.0 -
Cold northern bits of larger countries (Alaska, Hokkaido etc) often seem to elect MPs who are semi-detached from the larger political disputes and concentrate on bringing in pork for their constituents. Their constituents generally seem to be happy with this, even to the point where they don't mind if their MP goes to prison for a bit, as long as they resume bringing home the bacon once they get out. I don't know much about Scotand but I don't see why voters there would be upset about Salmond preemptively chortling about how much leverage he'll be exercising on their behalf.0
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It's bound to come up in the debates, methinks. There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...PeterC said:The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.
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Thanks, that's very useful.antifrank said:
Here you go:JosiasJessop said:
But this is hardly the same, is it? 2012 were just 'ordinary' local elections, whilst, the indy ref appears to have totally changed the Scottish political landscape. The question is how long that change will last.MikeSmithson said:
Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.JosiasJessop said:First?
And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.
I'm on the record as saying things will not be as bad for Scottish Labour as the polls currently show (*), but it feels, to me at least, that current events are bigger than any one person's comments can derail.
There are greater forces at work.
(*) AIUI, the majorities are so large in some Scottish Labour constituencies that an unwinding of just a few percent could take many out of the SNP's hands. This has to be what Murphy and co. are working towards. Is there an easily-accessible table / chart anywhere showing the current Scottish majorities for all seats?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1YndxUDVSWjI0d1k/view?usp=sharing0 -
@TimGatt: Ed is out of his depth: poll shows Miliband is not trusted to lead UK abroad or keep us safe http://t.co/9JZsdfp9SS http://t.co/WNyUpbWPtp0
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Ask the Scottish Lib Dems (assuming you can still find one) how that is likely to go. Even Ed is not that stupid.Innocent_Abroad said:
It's bound to come up in the debates, methinks. There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...PeterC said:The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.
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Eh?Innocent_Abroad said:There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...
The chancellor sets the budget. If a 20% cut to the DWP budget is then implemented by the minister, was that idealogical or not?0 -
Ah the grand coalition. That will go down a bomb in Scotland. I still think any self respecting site should not as a matter of principle present the Daily Hate as a subject for discussion and pretend that it reflects anything other than the concocted prejudices of people that none of us would invite around for diner.0
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It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.0
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Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.antifrank said:
Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.Dair said:
Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.antifrank said:At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.
Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.
Comedy Gold.0 -
The Guardian election live blog is up from today
@Claire_Phipps: The @guardian #election2015 live blog starts today, right now – come and read our essential morning briefing http://t.co/lg80CTT4LC
This bit is very useful
Diary
Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy are speaking in Clydebank at 9am. The Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, Severin Carrell, will be there: keep an eye on his tweets @severincarrell.
At 10.30am, home secretary Theresa May will make a speech on tackling extremism.
Nigel Farage, along with Ukip deputy leader Paul Nuttall and economics spokesman Patrick O’Flynn, will be lifting the lid on the party’s economy policy in Heywood and Middleton at 11.15am.
Separately, a Ukip disciplinary hearing is due to take place into Janice Atkinson, an MEP and the party’s candidate in Folkestone & Hythe, suspended over allegations that a member of her staff attempted to obtain an inflated receipt to claim EU expenses.
From 2.30 to 4.30 Sky News hosts its “ask the chancellors” debate. George Osborne is first up, followed by Ed Balls, each questioned separately for 30 minutes followed by 15 minutes of questions via Facebook.
At 3.30pm, David Cameron will make a statement on the EU summit.
At 4pm, Lord Ashcroft will tweet the results of his latest national poll.
At 4.15pm, the IFS and OBR are up before the Treasury select committee to be quizzed on the budget. Keep an eye on our business live blog for more on this one.0 -
Personally I would love this. Labour lose any chance of ever recovering in Scotland. The SNP would probably reshuffle their Westminster hierarchy so Salmond becomes Leader of Her Majesties Loyal Opposition (that's the only circumstance they will switch Westminster hierarchy).PeterC said:The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.
Just think of the damage Salmond would do to Miliwonk or Cameron at a PMQs. Ratings would go through the roof.0 -
Oh lord, Ed has come to Scotland again? What is Murphy thinking?0
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No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.Dair said:
Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.antifrank said:
Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.Dair said:
Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.antifrank said:At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.
Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.
Comedy Gold.0 -
It wouldn't work quite that way. The Chancellor would have to get the Cabinet to agree to his (or even her) Budget, and where the cuts would fall. In practical terms, a Grand Coalition wouldn't make any further tax cuts (and would prioritize turning avoidance into evasion). This of course is why Tory activists would hate it. Labour activists would hate it for other reasons.Scott_P said:
Eh?Innocent_Abroad said:There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...
The chancellor sets the budget. If a 20% cut to the DWP budget is then implemented by the minister, was that idealogical or not?
Many voters will like the idea of a government that both red and blue activists hate.
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Daiir
And my point is that nothing in the Daily Hate/Mike presentation reflects the reality of Salmond's interview. It reflects a combination of the Mail's prejudices and Mike's fears that the Lib/Dems are about to lose all their seats!0 -
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
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Good morning all and fascinating how the Eck interventions are being portrayed on both sides of Hadrian's Wall. North of the Border it is being seen that the English want the Scots to remain in the Union but not to have any part in running it. South of Hadrian's Wall we are seeing Eck as Miliband's puppet master pulling Miliband's strings. If it drives English voters back to the Tories it will achieve its aim. Salmond's aim of course is to drive even more Scots Labour voters to the SNP.0
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You should perhaps scroll back to my first post in this thread.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.Dair said:
Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.antifrank said:
Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.Dair said:
Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.antifrank said:At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.
Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.
Comedy Gold.
If you believe anything Salmond says or does is "unwitting", you haven't been paying attention.0 -
Tories on 36% with Opinium:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3006958/Conservatives-enjoy-biggest-poll-lead-2010-Party-enjoys-three-point-advantage-36-cent-wake-budget.html
Is the budget starting to influence the numbers? I think if they get 36% on the day then likely Dave stays in No.10.0 -
No, lets ignore the front page of the most widely read online newspaper in the world, that's a much better idea. The SNP don't like it, who cares what the other 60m people in the country think.scotslass said:Ah the grand coalition. That will go down a bomb in Scotland. I still think any self respecting site should not as a matter of principle present the Daily Hate as a subject for discussion and pretend that it reflects anything other than the concocted prejudices of people that none of us would invite around for diner.
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Fox etc
Ah yes FPP. What a dreadful system. Which parties support it again? Wasn't Salmond lucky that they didn't have PR in the Scottish Parly when he swept to an overall majority in 2015.0 -
I disagree. Its not about Salmond at all, its taken as read he will have most of Scotland, its about Miliband and the damage appearing to be beholden to the SNP will do to Labour in the rest of the UK. This matters to the SNP to the extent that Labour is damaged enough by weakness stories that there is a CON/LD coalition which then ignores the SNP for 5 years.Dair said:
Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.antifrank said:Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.
Precisely.Paul_Mid_Beds said:No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.
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Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!0
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I am sure I saw a poll reported somewhat second hand indicating that the SNP were down to 41, 10% ahead of Labour. I think it was a Yougov and in the ST but I didn't have much time to read it yesterday. Only 1 poll but it did suggest something of a recovery for SLAB and I really don't see how having Ed speak in Scotland will help that.
My guess for a while is that the SNP will have about 30 gains getting them up to about 36. Quite a number of these are from the Lib Dems (Kincardine, Inverness, Argyll, NE Fife and probably a couple of others) so the damage to Labour is more like the mid 20s than some of the frothier claims. Trying to argue this "disappointing" result was a consequence of hubris is an advocacy task I would not wish on my worst enemy.
Never is a strong word but Scottish politics will not be the same for a very long time.0 -
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
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Easterross said:
Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!
It would be refreshing if just once a pollster tweeted: "New poll coming out at 4pm. Don't expect too much in the way of movement."
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Labour , Tories and Lib Dems which are all English parties with pretendy regional offices ran by sockpuppetsJackW said:
Which "English parties" would they be? Scotland doesn't belong to the SNP.Innocent_Abroad said:Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.
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So that one prediction about a local election outweighs everything else in his career? Why?MikeSmithson said:
Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.JosiasJessop said:First?
And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.
I thought Salmond looked frightening yesterday. I did not think Kinnock looked frightening on 1 4 92, I thought he looked a twat. Big difference. And I also strongly disagree that Sheffield actually swung it, I think the reality was always that Neil Kinnock Would Never Be Prime Minister. The thesis of this post is like a crime wave in a multi storey car park - wrong on so many different levels.
I expect Soubry's performance will have rattled the competition in Broxtowe , mind.0 -
Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.0 -
Only fools and dullards take that toilet paper seriously , and americans do not have a vote in the electionIndigo said:
No, lets ignore the front page of the most widely read online newspaper in the world, that's a much better idea. The SNP don't like it, who cares what the other 60m people in the country think.scotslass said:Ah the grand coalition. That will go down a bomb in Scotland. I still think any self respecting site should not as a matter of principle present the Daily Hate as a subject for discussion and pretend that it reflects anything other than the concocted prejudices of people that none of us would invite around for diner.
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Indigo
The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.0 -
And in other news Paddy Ashdown finally says that the LibDems believe the Pope is Catholic..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11488848/Lib-Dems-throw-weak-MPs-to-the-wolves.html0 -
Don't panic. This is a Monday. Things are usually better for the Tories on Mondays. A quick bill to bring the election date forward 3 days might be the most useful thing the Coalition could do in its dying days.Easterross said:Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!
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Unless you mean a subsample you didn't see a 41% since the discredited TNS leading question poll back in JanuaryDavidL said:I am sure I saw a poll reported somewhat second hand indicating that the SNP were down to 41, 10% ahead of Labour. I think it was a Yougov and in the ST but I didn't have much time to read it yesterday. Only 1 poll but it did suggest something of a recovery for SLAB and I really don't see how having Ed speak in Scotland will help that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
I think almost all the people of England don't actually care who runs Scotland, its rapidly becoming another country, and the number of English that wish the Scots would just "go away" is escalating every day. They care to some extent about who will be running the next UK government, they were already concerned about EdM's weakness, and Salmond strutting around on the TV is just going to alarm them more. It wont damage Salmond at all, it might be fatal for Miliband.JPJ2 said:Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.
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Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.Dair said:
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
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Is the Daily Mail's circulation in Scotland higher or lower than that of The National?scotslass said:Indigo
The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.0 -
Ho Ho Ho , so desperate the unionists need to gang up on SNP at home now , they really are doing well, under siege in Westminster and flapping like the jessies they are.Innocent_Abroad said:
It's bound to come up in the debates, methinks. There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...PeterC said:The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.
0 -
The level of smugness and general hubris of the Nats is approaching suffocating. It's almost, almost, worth putting up with a Labour Majority government just to get that warm feeling of teeth being ground north of the border for another five years as no one cares what they think once more.0
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I think there is a genuine consensus on this site that Lord Ashcroft's Monday efforts represent a Christmas 1914 opportunity to set aside our differences and laugh till our ribs come adrift. I really wouldn't worry too much about it.Easterross said:Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!
Any polls today from named BPC pollsters?0 -
It's not just the people in Scotland that believe Nicola Sturgeon is the UK's best leader.JPJ2 said:AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.
The Yougov Poll for the Sunday Times included Sturgeon in the leadership approval question
Sturgeon +7
Cameron -5
Milliband -39
Clegg -47
Clearly the hard graft she is putting in with the London media is paying off. While Salmond plays the bogeyman (a role he plays very well) she plays Good Cop and the public take a shine to her.0 -
One day when you grow up Monica you will understand these thingsMonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
0 -
Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.JPJ2 said:Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.0 -
The key point about the SNP and Salmond is this. He understands better than anyone that the party has been squeezed in Westminster elections because they were seen to be marginal to the campaign. They seem to have solved that problem!0
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Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.JPJ2 said:Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.0 -
Folks from the Midlands south are canny enough to know that a Labour-SNP arrangement means they can say cheerio to any chance of major infrastructure funding.
Actually, I'm not sure how well it will it play in Lancashire or Yorkshire either. There is only one party talking about a Northern Powerhouse that extends beyond the Central Belt.0 -
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.foxinsoxuk said:
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.Dair said:
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.0 -
That it will give one of them the chance to look like a future leader?DavidL said:Oh lord, Ed has come to Scotland again? What is Murphy thinking?
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Wishful thinkingDair said:
Unless you mean a subsample you didn't see a 41% since the discredited TNS leading question poll back in JanuaryDavidL said:I am sure I saw a poll reported somewhat second hand indicating that the SNP were down to 41, 10% ahead of Labour. I think it was a Yougov and in the ST but I didn't have much time to read it yesterday. Only 1 poll but it did suggest something of a recovery for SLAB and I really don't see how having Ed speak in Scotland will help that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
You clowns are not really here for the politics are you.TheWatcher said:
Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.JPJ2 said:Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.0 -
Doesn't every one realise that the SNP wants a tory administration, but can never say it.
Hence Salmond plays up stuff like this which will go down well in Scotland, but like a cup of cold sick in England
It's entirely by design.0 -
The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..0
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This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?Dair said:
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.foxinsoxuk said:
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.Dair said:
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
Interesting.....
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I thought you had won saddo, yet you seem a bit glum.Indigo said:The level of smugness and general hubris of the Nats is approaching suffocating. It's almost, almost, worth putting up with a Labour Majority government just to get that warm feeling of teeth being ground north of the border for another five years as no one cares what they think once more.
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@SophyRidgeSky: Here's the Times' take on the Tory attack ad showing Miliband in Salmond's pocket... http://t.co/s9cFSUBJKK0
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Salmond is the decoy. It's working very well. While all the commentators concentrate on berating him, Sturgeon is quietly building her reputation with people outside Scotland and is already the most popular party leader UK wide.TheWatcher said:
Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.JPJ2 said:Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.0 -
Massive self awareness failure from Malky, king of the Turnips.malcolmg said:
You clowns are not really here for the politics are you.TheWatcher said:
Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.JPJ2 said:Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.0 -
The results from the 1st round of French Local elections, show a firm rejection for the Left - especially their economic madness - , but people do not yet have faith in the extreme right. A future return for Sarkozy?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-320062680 -
Dair
Great post. Salmond and Sturgeon have been the most successful double act bar none. They still are. Salmond will not give a stuff about the Daily Hate or Mike for that matter. His aim will be to ensure that the SNP are front and centre of this campaign and it is working.0 -
Thinking Westminster can block another referendum indicates a complete lack of understanding of just how useful the UK's unwritten constitution can be.MarqueeMark said:
This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?Dair said:
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.foxinsoxuk said:
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.Dair said:
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
Interesting.....0 -
They prefer to think he is stupid and pretend it is really not happeningasjohnstone said:Doesn't every one realise that the SNP wants a tory administration, but can never say it.
Hence Salmond plays up stuff like this which will go down well in Scotland, but like a cup of cold sick in England
It's entirely by design.0 -
Higher. There is only one paper that counts in Scotland though tbh.antifrank said:
Is the Daily Mail's circulation in Scotland higher or lower than that of The National?scotslass said:Indigo
The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.0 -
Better than being just a Turnip, or a swede in your case , don't you thinkTheWatcher said:
Massive self awareness failure from Malky, king of the Turnips.malcolmg said:
You clowns are not really here for the politics are you.TheWatcher said:
Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.JPJ2 said:Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.
I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)
I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.
AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.0 -
For once I find myself agreeing with Mr Smithson's comments. Has Salmond blown it?
Only a fool would vote Labour in England knowing that with their collapse in Scotland the Labour Party, the English, would be dictated to by the minority and far leftish SNP. Its probably worth separating out the SNP from Scotland here.
But equally will this boasting and plain divisiveness help the SNP in Scotland?
How can the Tories finesse this to their advantage north and south of the border?
The point I would make is that even with a significant number of seats in Scotland then Labour are always going to be running scared.0 -
I'm trying to work out what you mean by this.Pulpstar said:
Higher. There is only one paper that counts in Scotland though tbh.antifrank said:
Is the Daily Mail's circulation in Scotland higher or lower than that of The National?scotslass said:Indigo
The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.
The Sunday Post? Not any more.
The Daylate Record? Not any more.
The Super Soaraway Scottish Sun? Possibly?
Even if you mean in regional concentration, then both the P&J and Courier are very popular still (ridiculously so in the current market).0 -
There will not be a second referendum.MarqueeMark said:
This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?Dair said:
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.foxinsoxuk said:
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.Dair said:
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
Interesting.....0 -
Only glum because Scotland is clearly another country, clearly doesn't want to be part of the UK, and yet couldn't get its act together and leave at the Indy Ref, and now we have to put up with the Nats mithering for another decade until you get another referendum and hopefully do it right next time.malcolmg said:
I thought you had won saddo, yet you seem a bit glum.Indigo said:The level of smugness and general hubris of the Nats is approaching suffocating. It's almost, almost, worth putting up with a Labour Majority government just to get that warm feeling of teeth being ground north of the border for another five years as no one cares what they think once more.
0 -
I'd be surprised if it went down well in Scotland.asjohnstone said:Doesn't every one realise that the SNP wants a tory administration, but can never say it.
Hence Salmond plays up stuff like this which will go down well in Scotland, but like a cup of cold sick in England
It's entirely by design.0 -
Better have some better answers to the currency question and a few others prepared by then.Dair said:
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.foxinsoxuk said:
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.Dair said:
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
To lose one referendum is unfortunate, to lose a second could be fatal for the SNP.
Far better to work constructively for a workable devo-max, which appears to be what Scots actually want. I think that Sturgeon will find that easier to negotiate with the Conservatives.0 -
There is no mechanism and no method by which you can stop it.Flightpath said:
There will not be a second referendum.MarqueeMark said:
This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?Dair said:
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.foxinsoxuk said:
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.Dair said:
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.foxinsoxuk said:
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.MonikerDiCanio said:It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
Interesting.....
The precedent has already been set. And in the UK, with an unwritten constitution, precedent is everything.0
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