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My initial thoughts were that Ed Milband is in every event/debate, and all publicity is good, however, the more I think about it, Ed’s appearance on the debate of the 16th of April could be a mistake.
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Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.
Expect the DUP etc. to be onto their lawyers about not being in the 3rd debate.
Expect the SNP to be onto their lawyers in any case as all these will be on the TV in Scotland.
I don't imagine Dave is going to be that happy about it either, given the BBC Question Time renowned "balanced audience". Will be interesting to see which way Clegg jumps, does he play Mr Coalition and gang up with Dave to duff up Miliband, or does he play Mr Differentiation and do the reverse, probably depends if he feels a CON/LD Coalition on the cards after the election.
Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive.
One things clear. The Labour market prices are absurd compared to the polls.
The telephone polls are self selected down to people who don't have their phone set up to ignore numbers without a caller-id, and don't immediately hang up when someone says "poll", and don't then hang up when someone says "politics" or "vote". The on-line polls are people that are prepared to answer questions about their preferences on cat food or toothpaste for 20 minutes after they are asked about VI. Both highly self selected audiences in my opinion.
Despite the size of the YG on-line polling pool, we have people on this site who are been polled by them 2 or 3 weeks in a row, which suggests the pool of people prepared to answer political polls with added consumer tedium is actually rather small.
1) Because it applies to almost everyone its incredibly expensive. Every 1% cut in the basic rate costs around £5bn.
2) He would be slaughtered by his opponents for giving away money when we still have a massive deficit, and commentators would say with complete justification that he had throw away all the saving from his years of austerity on an election bribe.
3) The new money he had coming in was one off payments from sales of bank shares and the like, not something on basis of which you can responsibly make a change to a recurring payment. The reason we are in the mess we are in now is because Brown did just that, uses windfall taxes to employ public sector workers, quietly glossing over the fact that they would need paying the following year when there was no windfall tax to foot the bill.
Disgusting.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3005558/Terrifying-moment-crew-rushed-save-life-Oscar-winner-William-Hurt-speeding-train-lay-tracks-filming-incident-killed-camerawoman-director-acknowledges-death-fault.html
I'm staggered that he has polarised people so much ... ;-)
Not sure how it'll be fair though - the person going last will have a serious advantage because they will be able to see the reaction of the audience to those who went before (unless they're going to be locked in a room!).
2) Don't agree. The newspapers would've loved it
Anyway, they blew it and won't now win the election.
It actually works out very well for him, he gets some nice safe exposure on the middle shows, and can play the victim card extensively on the QT invite, he won't actually want one because the QT audiences are notoriously liberal and would give him a hard time.
but you're basically saying all the polls have got this completely wrong? thats a brave call. Any evidence anywhere for this? I suppose they misfired in the Israel elections last week.
The message over the last 5 years has been consistent, that times are tough and hard choices need to be made. A tax cut now would scream "job done, you don't need us any more".
The tory message needs to be dark and highlight dangers in the world
If I wanted to go out on a limb, given the size of the SNP membership, and the online activism of the cybernats, one might expect a significant overstatement of the Nats polling position if we have the like of our Malcolm and Dair clicking SNP as hard as they can on any VI questionnaire coming to them irrespective of the amount of toothpaste preferences they have to wade through to submit the survey
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3005845/Exposed-Star-Tory-candidate-plotted-race-thugs-stage-fake-EDL-demo-cynical-bid-win-votes.html
I don't believe this sort of media coverage changes anyone's vote, least of all the sort of WVM and shire Tory demographics who are renowned for being bloody-minded. The consistent media vilification of Fatcha didn't change many Tory minds, and don't expect putting the boot into the Kippers will change many minds there either.
There have however been quite enough stories of people being refused for fostering, or forced out of school governorships, to make people cautious about admitting their preference for voting UKIP to anyone outside their close friends.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/20/voters-think-media-more-biased-against-UKIP/
Farage moaning all the time hardly does him any good if latest reports from Thanet South are an indication.
50 hours
A tax cut would've won them the election. As it is, I think there's little chance of that now.
You cannot blame Dave for not wanting to debate with him.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11488175/The-baroness-Islamic-extremists-and-a-question-of-free-speech.html
So, turning it on its head, suppose the polls are right? There was no budget bounce. The tories are on around 33%, Labour 34% and the rest we know.
One message - the markets are hopelessly, and I mean hopelessly, out of tune with the polls. Which means there's value to be had.
Cheers for that Telegraph link.
The Quintet is an opportunity for Miliband. He could play the Septet pretending to be an 'insurgent', and the Quintet trying to look responsible. Of course, he could bugger one or both up.
The evidence is :-
1 The continuing loss of votes and seats by UKIP in council by elections showing their support is lower now than in 2013 and 2014 local elections
2 The continual defections to Independents of UKIP councillors elected in 2013 and 2014 over 15% of County councillors elected in 2013 are no longer in place as UKIP councillors .
3 The rush of UKIP councillors in the last few weeks to resign their seats after just 1 or 2 years of their 4 year term of office .
ComRes/@daily_politics poll—Ukip councillors prefer Cameron to Mili by 69% to 6%. 44% wld support Tories in confidence & supply (2% say Lab)
More evidence Ukip are more Tory than the Tories.
IMHO The only people on such online panels will be political neds, people short of money who will do it for the pence and people with plenty of time on their hands. Similarly, like many now, I am Ex Directory have Telephone Preference Service and the few pollsters I get ringing (always with surveys on consumer crap) get informed of this pronto before the phone goes down. The Ex Directory and TPS is to deter telephone sales muppets. It appears pollsters have some sort of TPS exemption but the ex directory filters most of them out.
Therefore all the pollsters are going to suffer
(a) From Political Neds being disproportionate members of online polls
(b) From any poll getting a distorted profile of the electorate and having to massively weight.
They have all finely honed their weighting over the years, unfortunately we have in three years gone from a 2.5 to a six party system with the new parties cutting across all sorts of previous voting patterns.
The only thing I will safely predict about the election is that the pollsters will *all* get it wrong. I suspect the sector they will get most wrong is lower paid people either self employed or in the private sector who voted labour/lib in 2010 and will vote UKIP in 2015 (or won't vote at all) as such people will have no interest in online polls, would tell telephone pollsters where to stick their poll, and even if they did a poll wouldn't admit supporting UKIP as they wouldn't want to admit to supporting a party being monstered as "racist"
All that proves is that the councillors who took part in this poll prefer Mr Cameron to Mr Miliband.
Mr Miliband is not popular with Labour voters, why should UKIP councillors be different?
Farage has to be careful to not starting coming across as some old whino. Whilst the victim mentality might appeal to a smallish slice of the electorate, most are looking for a more positive message about how their politicians are going to govern them for the next five years. UKIP is the party of sucking air through teeth and muttering "oh, I wouldn't do that..."
Seeing no evidence on the ground that the polls are understating UKIP. If anything, quite the reverse. Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.
Maybe that should be Dis-Faraging.....
The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.
http://torbaytimes.co.uk/torbay-welcomes-ukips-south-west-spring-conference/
"How disappointed the Mail must be that he wasn't a UKIP candidate."
:-)
"In the local by-elections of 2014, UKIP made a net gain of five seats ... They made three gains from the Conservatives, two from the Independents, three from Labour, one from the Lib Dems and one from the Social Democrats for a total of 10 which means that UKIP managed to lose five seats (two to the Conservatives and three to Labour) and both the Conservative gains were in seats that UKIP managed to win in 2013 (on Cornwall and Essex)."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/harry-hayfields-local-election-preview/
In a different way, it is the same today, that they they are saying there is no chance of Ed Millband becoming PM.
At even money as next PM, that seems a bold prediction.
I wonder if they are putting all their worldly goods on such an outcome.
New party comes along resulting in people who have felt disenfranchised since the 1990s having someone to vote for again results in them not voting, hmm
The relative danger for UKIP is that supporters think in terms of who becomes PM, and desert to the Conservatives. They may retain more ex-Labour voters, who, I suspect, are less worried about Cameron remaining PM than ex-Conservatives are about Miliband becoming PM [possibly propped up by the SNP].
Seems they prefer Tory fanboys going by comments on here.
PS: I also have a life and don't give a toss what polls say, so waste no time contributing to them
"UKIP is picking up support from those who distrust politicians, but crucially, this support is significantly higher among those distrusting of MPs and who tend to vote in general elections.
The lesson we can take away from the BES internet panel is therefore that UKIP’s support is coming from those people who are politically engaged but disillusioned, much more than from those people who are politically disengaged and disillusioned. "
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/is-nigel-farage-the-heineken-politician-is-ukip-reaching-the-parts-of-the-electorate-other-parties-cannot-reach/
https://archive.today/Kjcyc
There are two reasons why UKIP might be understated.
1. There are shy UKIP supporters, who support the party, but don't wish to admit it. (Perhaps because of the "vilification" talked about by @Indigo.)
2. Because the way the pollsters works tends to systematically their share.
I don't believe in (1). I know a lot of UKIP supporters, and - like Scots nats - they are not in the least bit shy about their voting intentions.
I do believe in (2). I think UKIP is going to collect a lot of votes from people who didn't vote in 2010, and that that these people will see their votes down-waited. I also think that many people "remember" voting UKIP in 2010 (when actually they mean the Euro elections), which will also cause down-weighting.
For this reason, I suspect the final result could see the 'kippers a couple of points ahead of most pollsters.
Although a federal UK is my preferred options.
Also: people who vote early by post are people who've already made up their minds.
As I've said before, there is no love for any party out there. In Torbay there is a well-regarded, well-entrenched LibDem MP, but who has nevertheless (by report and observation) lost a fair bit of their support. The Tories have an energetic local candidate who has been working the seat for nearly two years. The amount of literature delivered by the Tories is way, way ahead of any of the other parties.
UKIP appears to date to have been concentrating their efforts on the better LibDem areas. That tells me they are having more joy peeling away LibDems than they are Tories. Which feels instinctively right for the South West.
But many are still not very engaged. If ever there was a "meh...." election, this is it. The one unifying theme though, when talking to voters, is that Ed Miliband is not up to the job of being Prime Minister. That is the most powerful message I can report back. I'm not going to "do a Marcus" and suggest the Tories will romp home in Torbay. But we are trying damn hard to get it off the LibDems. It looks our best chance in many a year.
Sunday Trading
Law and Order (corporal and capital punishment etc.)
Support for mothers to stay at home and not dump their kids in day orphanages
Buy to letters excluding young people from the housing market.
Sanctity of Marriage
Positive discrimination
Equalities mongering
Teaching of sex education in school/ Section 28
Membership of the EU
Membership of the UN
Lack of membership of the Commonwealth meaning anything
Enthusiasm for the Monarchy and British Traditions
Spending billions on new railways
Abortion
Divorce Laws
Protectionism in the workplace
Police Priorities
Hate Laws
Speed limits and attitude to motorist
Bring back pre decimal currency (sorry I've been reading Peter Hitchens this morning)
Obviously UKIP don't have differing views on all of these (and on some e.g. opposing HS2 I think they are plain wrong), but there are a whole raft of policies that the big three broadly agree on that in many cases they would not win a referendum on if they put the issue to the electorate and on some they would lose such a referendum heavily
A new party offering an alternative on just a few of them will attract people (who will suspect that they would, in power, implement many of the others - but dare not say so other than through dog whistles as it would give a media opportunity to their enemies)
Up to now the only new parties offering such an alternative were card carrying nazis/fascists which repelled people and stopped them in their tracks. Hence the desperation to smear UKIP as such.
"Following up from the montie/Warsi spat on Dudley...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11488175/The-baroness-Islamic-extremists-and-a-question-of-free-speech.html"
I despise articles like that though these days they seem to be Gilligan's stock in trade. 'Billy is a Scotsman Billy is mean therefore all Scotsmen are mean' The article is tripe and establishes nothing except for gilligan's prejudices.
Ed will play the 'you're more Tory than the Tories' card to safeguard lefty votes and Farage will get his chance to rail against the liberal elite in the other parties, perhaps getting a bump from the Right.
Result, net loss for the Coalition
UKIP supporters who work in the public sector or for large private sector corporations would I imagine be far more circumspect. The only UKIP supporters you know about are the ones who have admitted to you that they are UKIP supporters!
I would expect ex Tory UKIP supporters to generally be much less shy than ex Labour UKIP supporters living and working in Labour supporting areas.
Dudley North was on my list of likeliest Ukip victories long ago... The really fancy prices have gone, but 7/2 could still be worth a flutter if the Tory vote deserts and regroups round Ukip after this nonsense
(from what I've heard from my grandmother) from a disliked party, I'd think the chances of tory core vote win in 2015 must be high - on the same numbers/% as 2010...
"What about your own prejudices, which are laid bare every day for all to see."
My criticism was more directed to the Telegraph. There are plenty of journalists with the lack of scuples of Gilligan but why does a quality paper like the Telegraph employ them?
How can someone who as a journalist did everything he could to get Boris elected then accept the position of 'Cycling Commissioner for London" at public expense? Wouldn't a journalist with integrity be investigating himself and Boris for cronyism?
The debates...hmm. Sometimes these things can be over-analysed and thought about too much. The definition of compromise can be "an arrangement which is equally unsatisfactory to everybody" and this is pretty close to it.
Yes, those of a partisan disposition will claim their man or woman has played a blinder and is a strategic genius but I don't see much evidence of that. All we can say with confidence is the format of the 2020 election debates will be different again.
The Budget or Spring Statement as it should be called...underwhelming but sensible was my initial thought at the time. It won't shift many if any votes but is undoubtedly the right thing to do in most regard. To be fair, Osborne could have read extracts from the Skelmersdale phone book last Wednesday and papers like the Sun and Mail would have hailed it as brilliant.
I thought the rhetoric and cheap jibes from both Osborne and Miliband on Wednesday were awful and Danny Alexander's embarrassing effort on the Thursday just sad (and I say that as an LD just to show it is possible to criticise your own side - a skill some on here have yet to learn it would seem). Nonetheless, the Press coverage was so absurd and OTT as to neutralise much of the political impact.
Locally, we've had a leaflet from the poor sap who is the Conservative candidate here in East Ham who should spend the next five or six weeks praying to St Jude methinks. The leaflet is frankly anodyne dross - apparently Gravesend is similar to East Ham and he wants to reduce parking charges (most locals get free parking anyway).
He's also offering to hold public meetings - the Conservative Mayoral candidate (who is now a PPC somewhere in north London) did the same and held one just 100 yards from where I live in the local Church. Strange no one locally got an invite - the cynic might wonder if the only invites went to Conservative members and their friends. In any case, he should be offering to hold debates with all the candidates not just talking to and for himself. It won't matter - I doubt Stephen Timms has much to worry about.
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ao7qcdoada/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-200315.pdf
Why is Clegg not in the middle debate ? How could a great party be allowed to be finished by one man and his dog called Alexander ?
The Liberals will be LUCKY to get 20 seats. I wouldn't be surprised the party crumbles after the elections and a rump is left behind like the old Liberal Party. No one is actually sure what this once great party stands for anymore. The Greens might be barmy but the public knows their heart is in the right place.
What do the LD's stand for ? Licking any party's arse to be in government. At least, the Park Ranger will not be there.
The budget was probably the last chance the tories had to win outright. They blew it.
The fact is that the story does not coincide with the way you see things, as for getting Boris elected he was a journo on the London newspaper and surely entitled to his editorial opinion?
Given the choice between Boris and the anti-English bigot Livingstone then I would say he did London a huge favour. And Cycling Commissioner for London? About as influential as a linesman in a house match
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11488185/Tory-candidate-suspended-over-race-hate-vote-plot.html
Portray Labour as the party that will stay in the EU and let Farage bang on about how bad the EU is . UKIP will then have a field day with the anti EU lot - no other similar comments. All others one way or the other are pro EU.
Miliband could just summarize thus: If you want to stay in the EU, Labour will fight for Britain's interest but we will stay in the EU. If you do want to stay in the EU, you can always vote for UKIP
Sunday Trading YES PLEASE, FULLY DEREGULATE
Corporal and capital punishment NO and NO
Support for mothers to stay at home and 'place' their kids in day orphanages NO. GIVE THEM CHANCE TO GET BACK TO WORK.
Buy to letters excluding young people from the housing market DUNNO
Sanctity of Marriage NO
Positive discrimination YES
Equalities LOTS OF IT PLEASE
Teaching of sex education in school/ Section 28 YES
Membership of the EU YES
Membership of the UN YES
Lack of membership of the Commonwealth meaning anything DON'T CARE re COMMONWEALTH
Enthusiasm for the Monarchy and British Traditions NOT V INTERESTED IN MONARCHY
Spending billions on new railways YES PLEASE
Abortion NEUTRAL
Divorce Laws WHAT ABOUT THEM?
Protectionism in the workplace YES if this means safety?
Police Priorities WHAT ABOUT THEM?
Hate Laws WHAT ARE THEY?
Speed limits and attitude to motorist YES MORE PLEASE IN BUILT UP AREAS
Bring back pre decimal currency (sorry I've been reading Peter Hitchens this morning) NO
Wonder what that makes me? And don't say 'confused' :-)
Having announced their intention to do so, they are congratulating themselves on their weightloss and putting into place plans to eat large amounts of chocolate cake and biscuits at the end of the next parliament.
But they havent actually lost the weight yet.
@BBCNormanS: I think we are very good at weeding out people" - @Nigel_Farage @MarrShow http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10481892/How-Nigel-Farages-Ukip-chairman-marched-with-the-English-Defence-League.html
http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/da8ce53cf0240070ce6c69c48cd588ee.html
I am inclined to think that debates in this general election will not be as influential as they probably were in 2010.