politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So the debates are happening

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So the debates are happening

My initial thoughts were that Ed Milband is in every event/debate, and all publicity is good, however, the more I think about it, Ed’s appearance on the debate of the 16th of April could be a mistake.

Read the full story here

Indigo

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

Expect the DUP etc. to be onto their lawyers about not being in the 3rd debate.

Expect the SNP to be onto their lawyers in any case as all these will be on the TV in Scotland.

anotherDave

Indigo said:

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

That's the BBC Question Time one. I don't think the BBC are covered by OfCom's major/minor party ruling.

anotherDave

What date are postal voting packs sent out?

OblitusSumMe

anotherDave said:

Indigo said:

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

That's the BBC Question Time one. I don't think the BBC are covered by OfCom's major/minor party ruling.

The BBC are covered by OFCOM rules. OFCOM's rules do not mean that all four major parties have to be given equal airtime - the broadcasters are still allowed to discriminate. I have sympathy with the view that the final debate is an establishment stitch-up.

Indigo

anotherDave said:

What date are postal voting packs sent out?

Postal ballots can only be sent out once the deadline to become a candidate has passed (4pm, 9 April) and the ballot papers have subsequently been produced and printed. Contact your local electoral registration office for further information on when your postal ballot papers will be issued.

Indigo

OblitusSumMe said:

I have sympathy with the view that the final debate is an establishment stitch-up.

I can't imagine campaigning on this is going to do Farage much harm considering his target audience. Looking like a victim to the establishment will probably be worth a percent or two at the ballot box on its own.

I don't imagine Dave is going to be that happy about it either, given the BBC Question Time renowned "balanced audience". Will be interesting to see which way Clegg jumps, does he play Mr Coalition and gang up with Dave to duff up Miliband, or does he play Mr Differentiation and do the reverse, probably depends if he feels a CON/LD Coalition on the cards after the election.

Purseybear

Indigo said:

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

Expect the DUP etc. to be onto their lawyers about not being in the 3rd debate.

Expect the SNP to be onto their lawyers in any case as all these will be on the TV in Scotland.

Think we're past all that. This is it now. Cannot see any further changes.

Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive.

One things clear. The Labour market prices are absurd compared to the polls.

Indigo

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

Expect the DUP etc. to be onto their lawyers about not being in the 3rd debate.

Expect the SNP to be onto their lawyers in any case as all these will be on the TV in Scotland.

Think we're past all that. This is it now. Cannot see any further changes.

Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive.

One things clear. The Labour market prices are absurd compared to the polls.

I think the polls didn't move because the polls increasing are only polling activists and the politically engaged, all of whom made their mind up months if not years ago. All the polls have been pretty much MoE changes since before Christmas.

The telephone polls are self selected down to people who don't have their phone set up to ignore numbers without a caller-id, and don't immediately hang up when someone says "poll", and don't then hang up when someone says "politics" or "vote". The on-line polls are people that are prepared to answer questions about their preferences on cat food or toothpaste for 20 minutes after they are asked about VI. Both highly self selected audiences in my opinion.

Despite the size of the YG on-line polling pool, we have people on this site who are been polled by them 2 or 3 weeks in a row, which suggests the pool of people prepared to answer political polls with added consumer tedium is actually rather small.

Indigo

Purseybear said:

Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive..

If Osborne had trimmed the basic rate of income tax:

1) Because it applies to almost everyone its incredibly expensive. Every 1% cut in the basic rate costs around £5bn.

2) He would be slaughtered by his opponents for giving away money when we still have a massive deficit, and commentators would say with complete justification that he had throw away all the saving from his years of austerity on an election bribe.

3) The new money he had coming in was one off payments from sales of bank shares and the like, not something on basis of which you can responsibly make a change to a recurring payment. The reason we are in the mess we are in now is because Brown did just that, uses windfall taxes to employ public sector workers, quietly glossing over the fact that they would need paying the following year when there was no windfall tax to foot the bill.

JosiasJessop

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct, then he should have no part in politics, today or in the future.

Disgusting.

JosiasJessop

The director should have got more than two years in jail:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3005558/Terrifying-moment-crew-rushed-save-life-Oscar-winner-William-Hurt-speeding-train-lay-tracks-filming-incident-killed-camerawoman-director-acknowledges-death-fault.html

JosiasJessop

On-topic: I'm confused about people's reaction to the debates on here. Either Cameron is a strategic genius who has played the media to get what he wanted, or he is a cowardly custard that is unwilling to be seen in public.

I'm staggered that he has polarised people so much ... ;-)

alex.

The last one isn't a "debate". It's a QT with Clegg, followed by a QT with Miliband, followed by a QT with Cameron (or some other order). It's not a new format - this has happened in the past (although on different days with different audiences).

Not sure how it'll be fair though - the person going last will have a serious advantage because they will be able to see the reaction of the audience to those who went before (unless they're going to be locked in a room!).

Purseybear

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive..

If Osborne had trimmed the basic rate of income tax:

1) Because it applies to almost everyone its incredibly expensive. Every 1% cut in the basic rate costs around £5bn.

2) He would be slaughtered by his opponents for giving away money when we still have a massive deficit, and commentators would say with complete justification that he had throw away all the saving from his years of austerity on an election bribe.

3) The new money he had coming in was one off payments from sales of bank shares and the like, not something on basis of which you can responsibly make a change to a recurring payment. The reason we are in the mess we are in now is because Brown did just that, uses windfall taxes to employ public sector workers, quietly glossing over the fact that they would need paying the following year when there was no windfall tax to foot the bill.

1) 5 bn is chicken feed in the context. He should have gone for a 2% cut in the basic rate. Election winner.

2) Don't agree. The newspapers would've loved it

Anyway, they blew it and won't now win the election.

Indigo

alex. said:

The last one isn't a "debate". It's a QT with Clegg, followed by a QT with Miliband, followed by a QT with Cameron. It's not a new format - this has happened in the past (although on different days with different audiences).

The format itself is beside the point to some extent. Farage is going to either litigate, or more like run around complaining to anyone that will listen, that his party is being unfairly disadvantaged as the only "major party" not being invited to a QT.

It actually works out very well for him, he gets some nice safe exposure on the middle shows, and can play the victim card extensively on the QT invite, he won't actually want one because the QT audiences are notoriously liberal and would give him a hard time.

Purseybear

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

Expect the DUP etc. to be onto their lawyers about not being in the 3rd debate.

Expect the SNP to be onto their lawyers in any case as all these will be on the TV in Scotland.

Think we're past all that. This is it now. Cannot see any further changes.

Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive.

One things clear. The Labour market prices are absurd compared to the polls.

I think the polls didn't move because the polls increasing are only polling activists and the politically engaged, all of whom made their mind up months if not years ago. All the polls have been pretty much MoE changes since before Christmas.

The telephone polls are self selected down to people who don't have their phone set up to ignore numbers without a caller-id, and don't immediately hang up when someone says "poll", and don't then hang up when someone says "politics" or "vote". The on-line polls are people that are prepared to answer questions about their preferences on cat food or toothpaste for 20 minutes after they are asked about VI. Both highly self selected audiences in my opinion.

Despite the size of the YG on-line polling pool, we have people on this site who are been polled by them 2 or 3 weeks in a row, which suggests the pool of people prepared to answer political polls with added consumer tedium is actually rather small.

yeah I've been polled 3 times by YG VI since registering a few weeks back.

but you're basically saying all the polls have got this completely wrong? thats a brave call. Any evidence anywhere for this? I suppose they misfired in the Israel elections last week.

asjohnstone

Purseybear said:

1) 5 bn is chicken feed in the context. He should have gone for a 2% cut in the basic rate. Election winner.

No, it'd be political suicide, because would send the message that things are ok, people vote Labour when they think times are good and its safe to do so.

The message over the last 5 years has been consistent, that times are tough and hard choices need to be made. A tax cut now would scream "job done, you don't need us any more".

The tory message needs to be dark and highlight dangers in the world

Indigo

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

Expect the DUP etc. to be onto their lawyers about not being in the 3rd debate.

Expect the SNP to be onto their lawyers in any case as all these will be on the TV in Scotland.

Think we're past all that. This is it now. Cannot see any further changes.

Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive.

One things clear. The Labour market prices are absurd compared to the polls.

I think the polls didn't move because the polls increasing are only polling activists and the politically engaged, all of whom made their mind up months if not years ago. All the polls have been pretty much MoE changes since before Christmas.

The telephone polls are self selected down to people who don't have their phone set up to ignore numbers without a caller-id, and don't immediately hang up when someone says "poll", and don't then hang up when someone says "politics" or "vote". The on-line polls are people that are prepared to answer questions about their preferences on cat food or toothpaste for 20 minutes after they are asked about VI. Both highly self selected audiences in my opinion.

Despite the size of the YG on-line polling pool, we have people on this site who are been polled by them 2 or 3 weeks in a row, which suggests the pool of people prepared to answer political polls with added consumer tedium is actually rather small.

yeah I've been polled 3 times by YG VI since registering a few weeks back.

but you're basically saying all the polls have got this completely wrong? that's a brave call. Any evidence anywhere for this? I suppose they misfired in the Israel elections last week.

Not quite. I think its reasonable to suggest that number of committed voters for the parties are in some sort of relationship to their national popularity, but by their nature are much less susceptible to the every day media fuss, and will tend to have far greater confirmation bias than the average voter. I don't have any evidence for it but my expectation would be in effect the sampling error is rather higher than you might expect from the sample size.

If I wanted to go out on a limb, given the size of the SNP membership, and the online activism of the cybernats, one might expect a significant overstatement of the Nats polling position if we have the like of our Malcolm and Dair clicking SNP as hard as they can on any VI questionnaire coming to them irrespective of the amount of toothpaste preferences they have to wade through to submit the survey

Gadfly

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

anotherDave

JosiasJessop said:

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct, then he should have no part in politics, today or in the future.

Disgusting.

From the recording, it seems Mr Robinson was the source of this story.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3005845/Exposed-Star-Tory-candidate-plotted-race-thugs-stage-fake-EDL-demo-cynical-bid-win-votes.html

Indigo

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. I can't remember a more sustained campaign of vilification against a political party for many years, more than just the usual sort of "don't vote for the dangerous idiots opposite" banter you usually get especially at election times. The liberal press hate them because they are social conservatives and are at least superficially a right-wing party, and right-wing press hate them because they are seen as stealing votes that "belong" to the Conservatives.

I don't believe this sort of media coverage changes anyone's vote, least of all the sort of WVM and shire Tory demographics who are renowned for being bloody-minded. The consistent media vilification of Fatcha didn't change many Tory minds, and don't expect putting the boot into the Kippers will change many minds there either.

There have however been quite enough stories of people being refused for fostering, or forced out of school governorships, to make people cautious about admitting their preference for voting UKIP to anyone outside their close friends.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/20/voters-think-media-more-biased-against-UKIP/

British voters agree with Mr Farage’s general view. In fact, by 47-13% voters say the news media is biased against UKIP rather than in favour of them. Another 20% say news coverage of UKIP is basically fair and balanced, but the strong overall tilt towards a negative bias is unique to UKIP among the major parties.

MikeSmithson

Indigo said:

alex. said:

The last one isn't a "debate". It's a QT with Clegg, followed by a QT with Miliband, followed by a QT with Cameron. It's not a new format - this has happened in the past (although on different days with different audiences).

The format itself is beside the point to some extent. Farage is going to either litigate, or more like run around complaining to anyone that will listen, that his party is being unfairly disadvantaged as the only "major party" not being invited to a QT.

It actually works out very well for him, he gets some nice safe exposure on the middle shows, and can play the victim card extensively on the QT invite, he won't actually want one because the QT audiences are notoriously liberal and would give him a hard time.

Wrong. Farage is at the BBC debate while Clegg isn't so they have to feature the latter elsewhere to make up the overall balance.

Farage moaning all the time hardly does him any good if latest reports from Thanet South are an indication.

Indigo

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct, then he should have no part in politics, today or in the future.

Disgusting.

From the recording, it seems Mr Robinson was the source of this story.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3005845/Exposed-Star-Tory-candidate-plotted-race-thugs-stage-fake-EDL-demo-cynical-bid-win-votes.html

Mr Robinson isn't many people's cup of tea, however the video is pretty damning on its own. One shouldn't reject the message because its delivered by the wrong messenger.

JackW

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

50 hours

Purseybear

asjohnstone said:

Purseybear said:

1) 5 bn is chicken feed in the context. He should have gone for a 2% cut in the basic rate. Election winner.

The tory message needs to be dark and highlight dangers in the world

But it wasn't. The message was 'Britain's walking tall again'. A rosier picture could hardly have been painted. Which is another reason people may turn to Labour.

A tax cut would've won them the election. As it is, I think there's little chance of that now.

Indigo

MikeSmithson said:

Indigo said:

alex. said:

The last one isn't a "debate". It's a QT with Clegg, followed by a QT with Miliband, followed by a QT with Cameron. It's not a new format - this has happened in the past (although on different days with different audiences).

The format itself is beside the point to some extent. Farage is going to either litigate, or more like run around complaining to anyone that will listen, that his party is being unfairly disadvantaged as the only "major party" not being invited to a QT.

It actually works out very well for him, he gets some nice safe exposure on the middle shows, and can play the victim card extensively on the QT invite, he won't actually want one because the QT audiences are notoriously liberal and would give him a hard time.

Wrong. Farage is at the BBC debate while Clegg isn't so they have to feature the latter elsewhere to make up the overall balance.

Miliband is in all of them.

MikeSmithson said:

Farage moaning all the time hardly does him any good if latest reports from Thanet South are an indication.

One wonders which Farage would consider the greater success, the kippers getting 10 seats and losing Thanet S, or getting 3 seats and winning Thanet S

Purseybear

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

anotherDave

Indigo said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct, then he should have no part in politics, today or in the future.

Disgusting.

From the recording, it seems Mr Robinson was the source of this story.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3005845/Exposed-Star-Tory-candidate-plotted-race-thugs-stage-fake-EDL-demo-cynical-bid-win-votes.html

Mr Robinson isn't many people's cup of tea, however the video is pretty damning on its own. One shouldn't reject the message because its delivered by the wrong messenger.

Sure. I just meant that the telephone recording seems to have been done by Mr Robinson, which suggests he/EDL took the story to the Mail and worked with them to get the recordings.

Indigo

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. You cant say anything about any projection until you can compare it to the actual result. Statistically you can't measure the bias in your sample until you get to compare it to the population, that happens on May 8th. People are free to accept, reject or develop my propositions as they see fit.

Indigo

anotherDave said:

Indigo said:

anotherDave said:

JosiasJessop said:

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct, then he should have no part in politics, today or in the future.

Disgusting.

From the recording, it seems Mr Robinson was the source of this story.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3005845/Exposed-Star-Tory-candidate-plotted-race-thugs-stage-fake-EDL-demo-cynical-bid-win-votes.html

Mr Robinson isn't many people's cup of tea, however the video is pretty damning on its own. One shouldn't reject the message because its delivered by the wrong messenger.

Sure. I just meant that the telephone recording seems to have been done by Mr Robinson, which suggests he/EDL took the story to the Mail and worked with them to get the recordings.

Indeed. I did wonder what was in it for the EDL.

Big_G_NorthWales

Purseybear said:

asjohnstone said:

Purseybear said:

1) 5 bn is chicken feed in the context. He should have gone for a 2% cut in the basic rate. Election winner.

The tory message needs to be dark and highlight dangers in the world

But it wasn't. The message was 'Britain's walking tall again'. A rosier picture could hardly have been painted. Which is another reason people may turn to Labour.

A tax cut would've won them the election. As it is, I think there's little chance of that now.

The nature of the coalition would not have permitted a game changer and it was a responsible budget in the circumstances - the manifesto is a very different matter and it would be expected to gave several eye catching commitments that could yet see the the voters respond positively to the conservatives

Peter_the_Punter

Farage makes the point simply and effectively, as is his wont.

You cannot blame Dave for not wanting to debate with him.

TGOHF

Following up from the montie/Warsi spat on Dudley...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11488175/The-baroness-Islamic-extremists-and-a-question-of-free-speech.html

Indigo

TGOHF said:

Following up from the montie/Warsi spat on Dudley...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11488175/The-baroness-Islamic-extremists-and-a-question-of-free-speech.html

What a depressing article.

Purseybear

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. .

Well we can look at history in both previous parliaments and this parliament. If I make a claim that the tories will poll 50% and then come out with your line that you can't prove me wrong it's only a step from primary school debating, no? I was really just wanting to know what evidence you've got that the polls are underestimating ukip? If you haven't got any thats fine - it's just a wild stab in the dark then.

So, turning it on its head, suppose the polls are right? There was no budget bounce. The tories are on around 33%, Labour 34% and the rest we know.

One message - the markets are hopelessly, and I mean hopelessly, out of tune with the polls. Which means there's value to be had.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Cheers for that Telegraph link.

The Quintet is an opportunity for Miliband. He could play the Septet pretending to be an 'insurgent', and the Quintet trying to look responsible. Of course, he could bugger one or both up.

MarkSenior

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. You cant say anything about any projection until you can compare it to the actual result. Statistically you can't measure the bias in your sample until you get to compare it to the population, that happens on May 8th. People are free to accept, reject or develop my propositions as they see fit.

Of course there is evidence for those who want to look for it and not go LaLaLa and act as the 3 monkeys .
The evidence is :-
1 The continuing loss of votes and seats by UKIP in council by elections showing their support is lower now than in 2013 and 2014 local elections
2 The continual defections to Independents of UKIP councillors elected in 2013 and 2014 over 15% of County councillors elected in 2013 are no longer in place as UKIP councillors .
3 The rush of UKIP councillors in the last few weeks to resign their seats after just 1 or 2 years of their 4 year term of office .

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. You cant say anything about any projection until you can compare it to the actual result. Statistically you can't measure the bias in your sample until you get to compare it to the population, that happens on May 8th. People are free to accept, reject or develop my propositions as they see fit.

Of course there is evidence for those who want to look for it and not go LaLaLa and act as the 3 monkeys .
The evidence is :-
1 The continuing loss of votes and seats by UKIP in council by elections showing their support is lower now than in 2013 and 2014 local elections
2 The continual defections to Independents of UKIP councillors elected in 2013 and 2014 over 15% of County councillors elected in 2013 are no longer in place as UKIP councillors .
3 The rush of UKIP councillors in the last few weeks to resign their seats after just 1 or 2 years of their 4 year term of office .

UKIP have won more seats than they've lost. No evidence of declining support there.

volcanopete

May2015 ‏@May2015NS
ComRes/@daily_politics poll—Ukip councillors prefer Cameron to Mili by 69% to 6%. 44% wld support Tories in confidence & supply (2% say Lab)

More evidence Ukip are more Tory than the Tories.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Indigo said:

I think the polls didn't move because the polls increasing are only polling activists and the politically engaged, all of whom made their mind up months if not years ago. All the polls have been pretty much MoE changes since before Christmas.

The telephone polls are self selected down to people who don't have their phone set up to ignore numbers without a caller-id, and don't immediately hang up when someone says "poll", and don't then hang up when someone says "politics" or "vote". The on-line polls are people that are prepared to answer questions about their preferences on cat food or toothpaste for 20 minutes after they are asked about VI. Both highly self selected audiences in my opinion.

Despite the size of the YG on-line polling pool, we have people on this site who are been polled by them 2 or 3 weeks in a row, which suggests the pool of people prepared to answer political polls with added consumer tedium is actually rather small.

I very much agree. I joined a a well known online voting panel but after receiving several surveys asking for my opinion on all sorts of boring consumer matters left it again. I've got a full time job and a family and have got better things to do than waste my evenings answering polls about crap for the sake of a few pence and the chance of getting a political poll one day.

IMHO The only people on such online panels will be political neds, people short of money who will do it for the pence and people with plenty of time on their hands. Similarly, like many now, I am Ex Directory have Telephone Preference Service and the few pollsters I get ringing (always with surveys on consumer crap) get informed of this pronto before the phone goes down. The Ex Directory and TPS is to deter telephone sales muppets. It appears pollsters have some sort of TPS exemption but the ex directory filters most of them out.

Therefore all the pollsters are going to suffer

(a) From Political Neds being disproportionate members of online polls
(b) From any poll getting a distorted profile of the electorate and having to massively weight.

They have all finely honed their weighting over the years, unfortunately we have in three years gone from a 2.5 to a six party system with the new parties cutting across all sorts of previous voting patterns.

The only thing I will safely predict about the election is that the pollsters will *all* get it wrong. I suspect the sector they will get most wrong is lower paid people either self employed or in the private sector who voted labour/lib in 2010 and will vote UKIP in 2015 (or won't vote at all) as such people will have no interest in online polls, would tell telephone pollsters where to stick their poll, and even if they did a poll wouldn't admit supporting UKIP as they wouldn't want to admit to supporting a party being monstered as "racist"

anotherDave

volcanopete said:

May2015 ‏@May2015NS
ComRes/@daily_politics poll—Ukip councillors prefer Cameron to Mili by 69% to 6%. 44% wld support Tories in confidence & supply (2% say Lab)

More evidence Ukip are more Tory than the Tories.

?

All that proves is that the councillors who took part in this poll prefer Mr Cameron to Mr Miliband.

Mr Miliband is not popular with Labour voters, why should UKIP councillors be different?

MarqueeMark

Greetings all.

Farage has to be careful to not starting coming across as some old whino. Whilst the victim mentality might appeal to a smallish slice of the electorate, most are looking for a more positive message about how their politicians are going to govern them for the next five years. UKIP is the party of sucking air through teeth and muttering "oh, I wouldn't do that..."

Seeing no evidence on the ground that the polls are understating UKIP. If anything, quite the reverse. Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

Maybe that should be Dis-Faraging.....

JohnLilburne

Three polls - Opinium, YouGov, Survation. Did we ever get one for the Sun on Sunday?

MarkSenior

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. You cant say anything about any projection until you can compare it to the actual result. Statistically you can't measure the bias in your sample until you get to compare it to the population, that happens on May 8th. People are free to accept, reject or develop my propositions as they see fit.

Of course there is evidence for those who want to look for it and not go LaLaLa and act as the 3 monkeys .
The evidence is :-
1 The continuing loss of votes and seats by UKIP in council by elections showing their support is lower now than in 2013 and 2014 local elections
2 The continual defections to Independents of UKIP councillors elected in 2013 and 2014 over 15% of County councillors elected in 2013 are no longer in place as UKIP councillors .
3 The rush of UKIP councillors in the last few weeks to resign their seats after just 1 or 2 years of their 4 year term of office .

UKIP have won more seats than they've lost. No evidence of declining support there.

Since June 2014 , UKIP have defended 7 seats in council by elections and held just 2 of them and lost 5 . The novelty factor would appear to work in their favour in getting a councillor elected but the reality of having a UKIP councillor creates a rush to not repeat it .

anotherDave

MarqueeMark said:

Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

I believe you're a Conservative Party activist in Tor Bay.

The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.

http://torbaytimes.co.uk/torbay-welcomes-ukips-south-west-spring-conference/

Paul_Mid_Beds

Top rated comment out of 1000 in the Mail EDL Dudley story: (+2000 green arrows)

"How disappointed the Mail must be that he wasn't a UKIP candidate."

:-)

foxinsoxuk

MarqueeMark said:

Greetings all.

Farage has to be careful to not starting coming across as some old whino. Whilst the victim mentality might appeal to a smallish slice of the electorate, most are looking for a more positive message about how their politicians are going to govern them for the next five years. UKIP is the party of sucking air through teeth and muttering "oh, I wouldn't do that..."

Seeing no evidence on the ground that the polls are understating UKIP. If anything, quite the reverse. Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

Maybe that should be Dis-Faraging.....

People who did not vote in the past are likely not to do so this time either. This is going to be a low turnout apathy/CBA election for most people.

MarqueeMark

anotherDave said:

MarqueeMark said:

Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

I believe you're a Conservative Party activist in Tor Bay.

The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.

Just telling you what I am experiencing on the ground. Sorry if it isn't what you expected...

Indigo

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. .

Well we can look at history in both previous parliaments and this parliament. If I make a claim that the tories will poll 50% and then come out with your line that you can't prove me wrong it's only a step from primary school debating, no? I was really just wanting to know what evidence you've got that the polls are underestimating ukip? If you haven't got any thats fine - it's just a wild stab in the dark then.

So, turning it on its head, suppose the polls are right? There was no budget bounce. The tories are on around 33%, Labour 34% and the rest we know.

One message - the markets are hopelessly, and I mean hopelessly, out of tune with the polls. Which means there's value to be had.

If you were to say the Tories were going to get 50% I would say they would not because they haven't got that percentage in living memory with far more charismatic leaders and in far more easy to sell times. I would also to be fair say because they are polling 20% less than that in the polls and no poll is going to be that wrong. However if you were to say that Tories are going to get 36% when the polls are showing 32%, maybe, maybe not, I don't think the polls are remotely sensitive enough especially given the likely sample bias for us to tell. If you get selected for YG VI three times in a handful of weeks I think we case safely say the actual pool being sampled is pretty small, and hence the actual margin of error is quite large.

anotherDave

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. You cant say anything about any projection until you can compare it to the actual result. Statistically you can't measure the bias in your sample until you get to compare it to the population, that happens on May 8th. People are free to accept, reject or develop my propositions as they see fit.

Of course there is evidence for those who want to look for it and not go LaLaLa and act as the 3 monkeys .
The evidence is :-
1 The continuing loss of votes and seats by UKIP in council by elections showing their support is lower now than in 2013 and 2014 local elections
2 The continual defections to Independents of UKIP councillors elected in 2013 and 2014 over 15% of County councillors elected in 2013 are no longer in place as UKIP councillors .
3 The rush of UKIP councillors in the last few weeks to resign their seats after just 1 or 2 years of their 4 year term of office .

UKIP have won more seats than they've lost. No evidence of declining support there.

Since June 2014 , UKIP have defended 7 seats in council by elections and held just 2 of them and lost 5 . The novelty factor would appear to work in their favour in getting a councillor elected but the reality of having a UKIP councillor creates a rush to not repeat it .

They have won more seats than they have lost.

"In the local by-elections of 2014, UKIP made a net gain of five seats ... They made three gains from the Conservatives, two from the Independents, three from Labour, one from the Lib Dems and one from the Social Democrats for a total of 10 which means that UKIP managed to lose five seats (two to the Conservatives and three to Labour) and both the Conservative gains were in seats that UKIP managed to win in 2013 (on Cornwall and Essex)."

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/harry-hayfields-local-election-preview/

Yorkcity

I remember some political commentators in 97 saying that the polls were wrong, and there was no way Labour would have the final outcome a 179 majority.

In a different way, it is the same today, that they they are saying there is no chance of Ed Millband becoming PM.

At even money as next PM, that seems a bold prediction.
I wonder if they are putting all their worldly goods on such an outcome.

Paul_Mid_Beds

MarqueeMark said:

anotherDave said:

MarqueeMark said:

Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

I believe you're a Conservative Party activist in Tor Bay.

The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.

Just telling you what I am experiencing on the ground. Sorry if it isn't what you expected...

Yeah but Torbay is also infested with Lib Dems (propably metropolitan types who have retired there) who are the most anti UKIP of all the party supporters I know so your findings don't greatly surprise me. Not expecting UKIP to win Torbay but dosent mean that you lot will get if off the Libdems either.

Paul_Mid_Beds

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Greetings all.

Farage has to be careful to not starting coming across as some old whino. Whilst the victim mentality might appeal to a smallish slice of the electorate, most are looking for a more positive message about how their politicians are going to govern them for the next five years. UKIP is the party of sucking air through teeth and muttering "oh, I wouldn't do that..."

Seeing no evidence on the ground that the polls are understating UKIP. If anything, quite the reverse. Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

Maybe that should be Dis-Faraging.....

People who did not vote in the past are likely not to do so this time either. This is going to be a low turnout apathy/CBA election for most people.

LOL

New party comes along resulting in people who have felt disenfranchised since the 1990s having someone to vote for again results in them not voting, hmm

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Beds, I reckon UKIP's vote will hold up well. As you say, those who disagree with the Westminster consensus on foreign aid, climate change and immigration (and for whom those issues are the most critical) have had no party representing them for some time now, and only one in tune with their thinking now.

The relative danger for UKIP is that supporters think in terms of who becomes PM, and desert to the Conservatives. They may retain more ex-Labour voters, who, I suspect, are less worried about Cameron remaining PM than ex-Conservatives are about Miliband becoming PM [possibly propped up by the SNP].

isam

TGOHF said:

Following up from the montie/Warsi spat on Dudley...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11488175/The-baroness-Islamic-extremists-and-a-question-of-free-speech.html

Warsi only has any clout because of tokenism and she is using her clout to get Muslims who hate England access to the establishment. Dangerous individual

isam

MarqueeMark said:

anotherDave said:

MarqueeMark said:

Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

I believe you're a Conservative Party activist in Tor Bay.

The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.

Just telling you what I am experiencing on the ground. Sorry if it isn't what you expected...

I am not disbelieving, but you do realise no one on PB has ever reported bad news for their party after canvassing?

malcolmg

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

First.

Expect the kippers to be onto their lawyers about the last debate, major party etc.

Expect the DUP etc. to be onto their lawyers about not being in the 3rd debate.

Expect the SNP to be onto their lawyers in any case as all these will be on the TV in Scotland.

Think we're past all that. This is it now. Cannot see any further changes.

Been thinking some more re the budget & the reason there's been no tory bounce is because the budget did next to nothing for ordinary people. It was neutral at a time the tories badly needed a positive.

One things clear. The Labour market prices are absurd compared to the polls.

I think the polls didn't move because the polls increasing are only polling activists and the politically engaged, all of whom made their mind up months if not years ago. All the polls have been pretty much MoE changes since before Christmas.

The telephone polls are self selected down to people who don't have their phone set up to ignore numbers without a caller-id, and don't immediately hang up when someone says "poll", and don't then hang up when someone says "politics" or "vote". The on-line polls are people that are prepared to answer questions about their preferences on cat food or toothpaste for 20 minutes after they are asked about VI. Both highly self selected audiences in my opinion.

Despite the size of the YG on-line polling pool, we have people on this site who are been polled by them 2 or 3 weeks in a row, which suggests the pool of people prepared to answer political polls with added consumer tedium is actually rather small.

yeah I've been polled 3 times by YG VI since registering a few weeks back.

but you're basically saying all the polls have got this completely wrong? that's a brave call. Any evidence anywhere for this? I suppose they misfired in the Israel elections last week.

If I wanted to go out on a limb, given the size of the SNP membership, and the online activism of the cybernats, one might expect a significant overstatement of the Nats polling position if we have the like of our Malcolm and Dair clicking SNP as hard as they can on any VI questionnaire coming to them irrespective of the amount of toothpaste preferences they have to wade through to submit the survey

Been on Yougov for years and get plenty of crap polls but never political ones , I stated I was SNP so am ignored.
Seems they prefer Tory fanboys going by comments on here.

PS: I also have a life and don't give a toss what polls say, so waste no time contributing to them

JohnLilburne

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Greetings all.

Farage has to be careful to not starting coming across as some old whino. Whilst the victim mentality might appeal to a smallish slice of the electorate, most are looking for a more positive message about how their politicians are going to govern them for the next five years. UKIP is the party of sucking air through teeth and muttering "oh, I wouldn't do that..."

Seeing no evidence on the ground that the polls are understating UKIP. If anything, quite the reverse. Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

Maybe that should be Dis-Faraging.....

People who did not vote in the past are likely not to do so this time either. This is going to be a low turnout apathy/CBA election for most people.

LOL

New party comes along resulting in people who have felt disenfranchised since the 1990s having someone to vote for again results in them not voting, hmm

Really? As a libertarian I'm fairly disenfranchised myself, but I have always found someone to vote for in the General Election. Whereas UKIP seems to be drawing a lot of its support from people not in the habit of voting.

rogerh

Agree with Mike comments re Nick Clegg.He will appear in athethe 7 way debate on April 2nd.The 16th debate in which he does not appear falls when postal voting will be starting.By the time Clegg appears again on 30th April as much as half the GE votes could have taken place via post and there is then only a week left before polling.

OldKingCole

Can’t see the point of “debates” before Easter, especially in Easter week itself. People will forget.

anotherDave

JohnLilburne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Greetings all.

Farage has to be careful to not starting coming across as some old whino. Whilst the victim mentality might appeal to a smallish slice of the electorate, most are looking for a more positive message about how their politicians are going to govern them for the next five years. UKIP is the party of sucking air through teeth and muttering "oh, I wouldn't do that..."

Seeing no evidence on the ground that the polls are understating UKIP. If anything, quite the reverse. Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

Maybe that should be Dis-Faraging.....

People who did not vote in the past are likely not to do so this time either. This is going to be a low turnout apathy/CBA election for most people.

LOL

New party comes along resulting in people who have felt disenfranchised since the 1990s having someone to vote for again results in them not voting, hmm

Whereas UKIP seems to be drawing a lot of its support from people not in the habit of voting.

The BES say UKIP supporters vote.

"UKIP is picking up support from those who distrust politicians, but crucially, this support is significantly higher among those distrusting of MPs and who tend to vote in general elections.

The lesson we can take away from the BES internet panel is therefore that UKIP’s support is coming from those people who are politically engaged but disillusioned, much more than from those people who are politically disengaged and disillusioned. "

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/is-nigel-farage-the-heineken-politician-is-ukip-reaching-the-parts-of-the-electorate-other-parties-cannot-reach/

JohnLilburne

OldKingCole said:

Can’t see the point of “debates” before Easter, especially in Easter week itself. People will forget.

Probably Cammo's reason for wanting them held early, if at all

JohnLilburne

anotherDave said:

JohnLilburne said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MarqueeMark said:

Greetings all.

Farage has to be careful to not starting coming across as some old whino. Whilst the victim mentality might appeal to a smallish slice of the electorate, most are looking for a more positive message about how their politicians are going to govern them for the next five years. UKIP is the party of sucking air through teeth and muttering "oh, I wouldn't do that..."

Seeing no evidence on the ground that the polls are understating UKIP. If anything, quite the reverse. Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

Maybe that should be Dis-Faraging.....

People who did not vote in the past are likely not to do so this time either. This is going to be a low turnout apathy/CBA election for most people.

LOL

New party comes along resulting in people who have felt disenfranchised since the 1990s having someone to vote for again results in them not voting, hmm

Whereas UKIP seems to be drawing a lot of its support from people not in the habit of voting.

The BES say UKIP supporters vote.

"UKIP is picking up support from those who distrust politicians, but crucially, this support is significantly higher among those distrusting of MPs and who tend to vote in general elections.

The lesson we can take away from the BES internet panel is therefore that UKIP’s support is coming from those people who are politically engaged but disillusioned, much more than from those people who are politically disengaged and disillusioned. "

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/is-nigel-farage-the-heineken-politician-is-ukip-reaching-the-parts-of-the-electorate-other-parties-cannot-reach/

I stand corrected.

malcolmg

English newspapers have totally lost the plot............pathetic cretins
https://archive.today/Kjcyc

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

Can’t see the point of “debates” before Easter, especially in Easter week itself. People will forget.

Plus any sensible person knows they are a bunch of lying toerags who will do a Clegg the minute they get offered something better.

rcs1000

Re UKIP and the polls.

There are two reasons why UKIP might be understated.

1. There are shy UKIP supporters, who support the party, but don't wish to admit it. (Perhaps because of the "vilification" talked about by @Indigo.)
2. Because the way the pollsters works tends to systematically their share.

I don't believe in (1). I know a lot of UKIP supporters, and - like Scots nats - they are not in the least bit shy about their voting intentions.

I do believe in (2). I think UKIP is going to collect a lot of votes from people who didn't vote in 2010, and that that these people will see their votes down-waited. I also think that many people "remember" voting UKIP in 2010 (when actually they mean the Euro elections), which will also cause down-weighting.

For this reason, I suspect the final result could see the 'kippers a couple of points ahead of most pollsters.

JohnLilburne

malcolmg said:

English newspapers have totally lost the plot............pathetic cretins
https://archive.today/Kjcyc

Tee hee.

Although a federal UK is my preferred options.

initforthemoney

Can see why Dave didn't want to get involved in most of these debates. They all clash with the Premier League darts.

rcs1000

rogerh said:

Agree with Mike comments re Nick Clegg.He will appear in athethe 7 way debate on April 2nd.The 16th debate in which he does not appear falls when postal voting will be starting.By the time Clegg appears again on 30th April as much as half the GE votes could have taken place via post and there is then only a week left before polling.

Are you genuinely predicting 50% of the vote will have have happened by post?

Also: people who vote early by post are people who've already made up their minds.

MarqueeMark

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

MarqueeMark said:

anotherDave said:

MarqueeMark said:

Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

I believe you're a Conservative Party activist in Tor Bay.

The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.

Just telling you what I am experiencing on the ground. Sorry if it isn't what you expected...

Yeah but Torbay is also infested with Lib Dems (propably metropolitan types who have retired there) who are the most anti UKIP of all the party supporters I know so your findings don't greatly surprise me. Not expecting UKIP to win Torbay but dosent mean that you lot will get if off the Libdems either.

I reckon my view on the ground is better than yours from Mid-Beds!

As I've said before, there is no love for any party out there. In Torbay there is a well-regarded, well-entrenched LibDem MP, but who has nevertheless (by report and observation) lost a fair bit of their support. The Tories have an energetic local candidate who has been working the seat for nearly two years. The amount of literature delivered by the Tories is way, way ahead of any of the other parties.

UKIP appears to date to have been concentrating their efforts on the better LibDem areas. That tells me they are having more joy peeling away LibDems than they are Tories. Which feels instinctively right for the South West.

But many are still not very engaged. If ever there was a "meh...." election, this is it. The one unifying theme though, when talking to voters, is that Ed Miliband is not up to the job of being Prime Minister. That is the most powerful message I can report back. I'm not going to "do a Marcus" and suggest the Tories will romp home in Torbay. But we are trying damn hard to get it off the LibDems. It looks our best chance in many a year.

Paul_Mid_Beds

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Beds, I reckon UKIP's vote will hold up well. As you say, those who disagree with the Westminster consensus on foreign aid, climate change and immigration (and for whom those issues are the most critical) have had no party representing them for some time now, and only one in tune with their thinking now.

The relative danger for UKIP is that supporters think in terms of who becomes PM, and desert to the Conservatives. They may retain more ex-Labour voters, who, I suspect, are less worried about Cameron remaining PM than ex-Conservatives are about Miliband becoming PM [possibly propped up by the SNP].

The list is a lot longer than that. e.g.

Sunday Trading
Law and Order (corporal and capital punishment etc.)
Support for mothers to stay at home and not dump their kids in day orphanages
Buy to letters excluding young people from the housing market.
Sanctity of Marriage
Positive discrimination
Equalities mongering
Teaching of sex education in school/ Section 28
Membership of the EU
Membership of the UN
Lack of membership of the Commonwealth meaning anything
Enthusiasm for the Monarchy and British Traditions
Spending billions on new railways
Abortion
Divorce Laws
Protectionism in the workplace
Police Priorities
Hate Laws
Speed limits and attitude to motorist
Bring back pre decimal currency (sorry I've been reading Peter Hitchens this morning)

Obviously UKIP don't have differing views on all of these (and on some e.g. opposing HS2 I think they are plain wrong), but there are a whole raft of policies that the big three broadly agree on that in many cases they would not win a referendum on if they put the issue to the electorate and on some they would lose such a referendum heavily

A new party offering an alternative on just a few of them will attract people (who will suspect that they would, in power, implement many of the others - but dare not say so other than through dog whistles as it would give a media opportunity to their enemies)

Up to now the only new parties offering such an alternative were card carrying nazis/fascists which repelled people and stopped them in their tracks. Hence the desperation to smear UKIP as such.

Roger

TGOHF

"Following up from the montie/Warsi spat on Dudley...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11488175/The-baroness-Islamic-extremists-and-a-question-of-free-speech.html"

I despise articles like that though these days they seem to be Gilligan's stock in trade. 'Billy is a Scotsman Billy is mean therefore all Scotsmen are mean' The article is tripe and establishes nothing except for gilligan's prejudices.

nigel4england

Roger said:

TGOHF

"Following up from the montie/Warsi spat on Dudley...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11488175/The-baroness-Islamic-extremists-and-a-question-of-free-speech.html"

I despise articles like that though these days they seem to be Gilligan's stock in trade. 'Billy is a Scotsman Billy is mean therefore all Scotsmen are mean' The article is tripe and establishes nothing except for gilligan's prejudices.

What about your own prejudices, which are laid bare every day for all to see.

Freggles

The 16th April debate will for English people depict the debate as between Labour and UKIP.
Ed will play the 'you're more Tory than the Tories' card to safeguard lefty votes and Farage will get his chance to rail against the liberal elite in the other parties, perhaps getting a bump from the Right.
Result, net loss for the Coalition

Paul_Mid_Beds

rcs1000 said:

Re UKIP and the polls.

There are two reasons why UKIP might be understated.

1. There are shy UKIP supporters, who support the party, but don't wish to admit it. (Perhaps because of the "vilification" talked about by @Indigo.)
2. Because the way the pollsters works tends to systematically their share.

I don't believe in (1). I know a lot of UKIP supporters, and - like Scots nats - they are not in the least bit shy about their voting intentions.

Retired UKIP supporters, UKIP supporters who don't care about what people think and activists, yes.

UKIP supporters who work in the public sector or for large private sector corporations would I imagine be far more circumspect. The only UKIP supporters you know about are the ones who have admitted to you that they are UKIP supporters!

I would expect ex Tory UKIP supporters to generally be much less shy than ex Labour UKIP supporters living and working in Labour supporting areas.

isam

Re the Tory EDL story

Dudley North was on my list of likeliest Ukip victories long ago... The really fancy prices have gone, but 7/2 could still be worth a flutter if the Tory vote deserts and regroups round Ukip after this nonsense

Mortimer

MarqueeMark said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

MarqueeMark said:

anotherDave said:

MarqueeMark said:

Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

I believe you're a Conservative Party activist in Tor Bay.

The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.

Just telling you what I am experiencing on the ground. Sorry if it isn't what you expected...

Yeah but Torbay is also infested with Lib Dems (propably metropolitan types who have retired there) who are the most anti UKIP of all the party supporters I know so your findings don't greatly surprise me. Not expecting UKIP to win Torbay but dosent mean that you lot will get if off the Libdems either.

I reckon my view on the ground is better than yours from Mid-Beds!

As I've said before, there is no love for any party out there. In Torbay there is a well-regarded, well-entrenched LibDem MP, but who has nevertheless (by report and observation) lost a fair bit of their support. The Tories have an energetic local candidate who has been working the seat for nearly two years. The amount of literature delivered by the Tories is way, way ahead of any of the other parties.

UKIP appears to date to have been concentrating their efforts on the better LibDem areas. That tells me they are having more joy peeling away LibDems than they are Tories. Which feels instinctively right for the South West.

But many are still not very engaged. If ever there was a "meh...." election, this is it. The one unifying theme though, when talking to voters, is that Ed Miliband is not up to the job of being Prime Minister. That is the most powerful message I can report back. I'm not going to "do a Marcus" and suggest the Tories will romp home in Torbay. But we are trying damn hard to get it off the LibDems. It looks our best chance in many a year.

Didn't we see polling showing that a good deal of 2010 lib dem voters were indeed flipping to UKIP. With that in mind, an engaged Tory campaign, and a middling incumbent MP
(from what I've heard from my grandmother) from a disliked party, I'd think the chances of tory core vote win in 2015 must be high - on the same numbers/% as 2010...

Roger

Nigel

"What about your own prejudices, which are laid bare every day for all to see."

My criticism was more directed to the Telegraph. There are plenty of journalists with the lack of scuples of Gilligan but why does a quality paper like the Telegraph employ them?

How can someone who as a journalist did everything he could to get Boris elected then accept the position of 'Cycling Commissioner for London" at public expense? Wouldn't a journalist with integrity be investigating himself and Boris for cronyism?

stodge

Morning all

The debates...hmm. Sometimes these things can be over-analysed and thought about too much. The definition of compromise can be "an arrangement which is equally unsatisfactory to everybody" and this is pretty close to it.

Yes, those of a partisan disposition will claim their man or woman has played a blinder and is a strategic genius but I don't see much evidence of that. All we can say with confidence is the format of the 2020 election debates will be different again.

The Budget or Spring Statement as it should be called...underwhelming but sensible was my initial thought at the time. It won't shift many if any votes but is undoubtedly the right thing to do in most regard. To be fair, Osborne could have read extracts from the Skelmersdale phone book last Wednesday and papers like the Sun and Mail would have hailed it as brilliant.

I thought the rhetoric and cheap jibes from both Osborne and Miliband on Wednesday were awful and Danny Alexander's embarrassing effort on the Thursday just sad (and I say that as an LD just to show it is possible to criticise your own side - a skill some on here have yet to learn it would seem). Nonetheless, the Press coverage was so absurd and OTT as to neutralise much of the political impact.

Locally, we've had a leaflet from the poor sap who is the Conservative candidate here in East Ham who should spend the next five or six weeks praying to St Jude methinks. The leaflet is frankly anodyne dross - apparently Gravesend is similar to East Ham and he wants to reduce parking charges (most locals get free parking anyway).

He's also offering to hold public meetings - the Conservative Mayoral candidate (who is now a PPC somewhere in north London) did the same and held one just 100 yards from where I live in the local Church. Strange no one locally got an invite - the cynic might wonder if the only invites went to Conservative members and their friends. In any case, he should be offering to hold debates with all the candidates not just talking to and for himself. It won't matter - I doubt Stephen Timms has much to worry about.

NickPalmer

Today's YouGov surveys extensively on the Budget and confirms its "meh" status. There's a 1% rise in people who think the Government is handling the economy well (46% say yes, 45% say no). There's no change in preference for Cameron/Osborne vs Miliband/Balls on the economy. 22% think it'll make them better off, 17% worse off. Asked about the individual changes, people mildly approve, with lots of don't knows. The only non-MOE change is a bounce in Osborne's personal rating (+7 net: Miliband is +3, Cameron +1). Perhaps that's what he primarily had in mind?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ao7qcdoada/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-200315.pdf

edmundintokyo

JosiasJessop said:

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct

That's a monster "if" - in general when people are accused of something by the Daily Mail the working assumption shouldn't be that it's true.

surbiton

Shall we declare Cameron the victor of the debates already ?

Why is Clegg not in the middle debate ? How could a great party be allowed to be finished by one man and his dog called Alexander ?

The Liberals will be LUCKY to get 20 seats. I wouldn't be surprised the party crumbles after the elections and a rump is left behind like the old Liberal Party. No one is actually sure what this once great party stands for anymore. The Greens might be barmy but the public knows their heart is in the right place.

What do the LD's stand for ? Licking any party's arse to be in government. At least, the Park Ranger will not be there.

Purseybear

stodge said:

Morning all


I thought the rhetoric and cheap jibes from both Osborne and Miliband on Wednesday were awful and Danny Alexander's embarrassing effort on the Thursday just sad (and I say that as an LD just to show it is possible to criticise your own side - a skill some on here have yet to learn it would seem). Nonetheless, the Press coverage was so absurd and OTT as to neutralise much of the political impact.

I agree. I listened to the whole thing and the jokes whilst quite funny put me off. I felt like I was back in the student union debating chamber. Some of the micro-managing to make political points [eg Agincourt] really turned me off.

The budget was probably the last chance the tories had to win outright. They blew it.

notme

MarkSenior said:

anotherDave said:

MarkSenior said:

Indigo said:

Purseybear said:

Indigo said:

Further to my comment below for different reasons I suspect the UKIP votes is being understated by at least a couple of percent. .

That's fair enough but again do you have any evidence for that please?

No one has any evidence for anything until May 8th. You cant say anything about any projection until you can compare it to the actual result. Statistically you can't measure the bias in your sample until you get to compare it to the population, that happens on May 8th. People are free to accept, reject or develop my propositions as they see fit.

Of course there is evidence for those who want to look for it and not go LaLaLa and act as the 3 monkeys .
The evidence is :-
1 The continuing loss of votes and seats by UKIP in council by elections showing their support is lower now than in 2013 and 2014 local elections
2 The continual defections to Independents of UKIP councillors elected in 2013 and 2014 over 15% of County councillors elected in 2013 are no longer in place as UKIP councillors .
3 The rush of UKIP councillors in the last few weeks to resign their seats after just 1 or 2 years of their 4 year term of office .

UKIP have won more seats than they've lost. No evidence of declining support there.

Since June 2014 , UKIP have defended 7 seats in council by elections and held just 2 of them and lost 5 . The novelty factor would appear to work in their favour in getting a councillor elected but the reality of having a UKIP councillor creates a rush to not repeat it .

Or a political party took a seat for granted, and UKIP ran it hard, but following the (shock) loss, the party that lost started to do some work to get it back?

Purseybear

NickPalmer said:

Today's YouGov surveys extensively on the Budget and confirms its "meh" status. There's a 1% rise in people who think the Government is handling the economy well (46% say yes, 45% say no). There's no change in preference for Cameron/Osborne vs Miliband/Balls on the economy. 22% think it'll make them better off, 17% worse off.

Agreed Nick.

initforthemoney

rcs1000 said:

Re UKIP and the polls.

1. There are shy UKIP supporters, who support the party, but don't wish to admit it. (Perhaps because of the "vilification" talked about by @Indigo.)
......

I don't believe in (1). I know a lot of UKIP supporters, and - like Scots nats - they are not in the least bit shy about their voting intentions.

That does not contradict 1.

nigel4england

Roger said:

Nigel

"What about your own prejudices, which are laid bare every day for all to see."

My criticism was more directed to the Telegraph. There are plenty of journalists with the lack of scuples of Gilligan but why does a quality paper like the Telegraph employ them?

How can someone who as a journalist did everything he could to get Boris elected then accept the position of 'Cycling Commissioner for London" at public expense? Wouldn't a journalist with integrity be investigating himself and Boris for cronyism?

If the story is untrue then surely the Telegraph will have a problem?

The fact is that the story does not coincide with the way you see things, as for getting Boris elected he was a journo on the London newspaper and surely entitled to his editorial opinion?

Given the choice between Boris and the anti-English bigot Livingstone then I would say he did London a huge favour. And Cycling Commissioner for London? About as influential as a linesman in a house match

david_herdson

malcolmg said:

English newspapers have totally lost the plot............pathetic cretins
https://archive.today/Kjcyc

I had been thinking of doing a piece on whether Salmond will prove to be a Charles Parnell for the 21st century but decided it would get sidetracked to easily and in any case, the answer's obvious.

anotherDave

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct

That's a monster "if" - in general when people are accused of something by the Daily Mail the working assumption shouldn't be that it's true.

The Conservatives have suspended him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11488185/Tory-candidate-suspended-over-race-hate-vote-plot.html

surbiton

There is one massive opportunity for Miliband in the debate of the 16th. The problem is he might not take it.

Portray Labour as the party that will stay in the EU and let Farage bang on about how bad the EU is . UKIP will then have a field day with the anti EU lot - no other similar comments. All others one way or the other are pro EU.

Miliband could just summarize thus: If you want to stay in the EU, Labour will fight for Britain's interest but we will stay in the EU. If you do want to stay in the EU, you can always vote for UKIP

anotherDave

isam said:

Re the Tory EDL story

Dudley North was on my list of likeliest Ukip victories long ago... The really fancy prices have gone, but 7/2 could still be worth a flutter if the Tory vote deserts and regroups round Ukip after this nonsense

But will it compensate for Ms Atkinson's inconsiderate endangering of my Folkestone bet? Self, self, self these politicos!

Purseybear

Okay here goes with my views then ;-)

Sunday Trading YES PLEASE, FULLY DEREGULATE
Corporal and capital punishment NO and NO
Support for mothers to stay at home and 'place' their kids in day orphanages NO. GIVE THEM CHANCE TO GET BACK TO WORK.
Buy to letters excluding young people from the housing market DUNNO
Sanctity of Marriage NO
Positive discrimination YES
Equalities LOTS OF IT PLEASE
Teaching of sex education in school/ Section 28 YES
Membership of the EU YES
Membership of the UN YES
Lack of membership of the Commonwealth meaning anything DON'T CARE re COMMONWEALTH
Enthusiasm for the Monarchy and British Traditions NOT V INTERESTED IN MONARCHY
Spending billions on new railways YES PLEASE
Abortion NEUTRAL
Divorce Laws WHAT ABOUT THEM?
Protectionism in the workplace YES if this means safety?
Police Priorities WHAT ABOUT THEM?
Hate Laws WHAT ARE THEY?
Speed limits and attitude to motorist YES MORE PLEASE IN BUILT UP AREAS
Bring back pre decimal currency (sorry I've been reading Peter Hitchens this morning) NO



Wonder what that makes me? And don't say 'confused' :-)

notme

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Purseybear said:

asjohnstone said:

Purseybear said:

1) 5 bn is chicken feed in the context. He should have gone for a 2% cut in the basic rate. Election winner.

The tory message needs to be dark and highlight dangers in the world

But it wasn't. The message was 'Britain's walking tall again'. A rosier picture could hardly have been painted. Which is another reason people may turn to Labour.

A tax cut would've won them the election. As it is, I think there's little chance of that now.

The nature of the coalition would not have permitted a game changer and it was a responsible budget in the circumstances - the manifesto is a very different matter and it would be expected to gave several eye catching commitments that could yet see the the voters respond positively to the conservatives

I can understand them being upbeat, but there are some massively difficult decisions to come next parliament. If we imagine the scenario of someone losing weight. They have five stone to lose. This parliament they've managed to lose about ten pounds. But next parliament they've planned to lose another sixty.

Having announced their intention to do so, they are congratulating themselves on their weightloss and putting into place plans to eat large amounts of chocolate cake and biscuits at the end of the next parliament.

But they havent actually lost the weight yet.

edmundintokyo

anotherDave said:

edmundintokyo said:

JosiasJessop said:

If the Mail's story on Afzal Amin is correct

That's a monster "if" - in general when people are accused of something by the Daily Mail the working assumption shouldn't be that it's true.

The Conservatives have suspended him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11488185/Tory-candidate-suspended-over-race-hate-vote-plot.html

Sure, there's an election campaign on and he's getting horrible headlines, but that doesn't tell us anything either way about whether the allegations are true.

Scott_P

@KayBurley: Farage says if one of his members was caught doing a deal with EDL their feet wouldn't touch the ground #marr #UKIP

@BBCNormanS: I think we are very good at weeding out people" - @Nigel_Farage @MarrShow

Cliff Dixon, Ukip’s chairman in Uxbridge, has admitted taking part in a march held by the far-Right English Defence League in east London

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10481892/How-Nigel-Farages-Ukip-chairman-marched-with-the-English-Defence-League.html

MarkSenior

MarqueeMark said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

MarqueeMark said:

anotherDave said:

MarqueeMark said:

Voters mentioning UKIP on the doorstep have generally done so in quite violently disparaging terms.

I believe you're a Conservative Party activist in Tor Bay.

The recent UKIP conference there said it was in the top four UKIP results in the country at the EU Parliament elections, so I find your assertion unconvincing.

Just telling you what I am experiencing on the ground. Sorry if it isn't what you expected...

The Tories have an energetic local candidate who has been working the seat for nearly two years. The amount of literature delivered by the Tories is way, way ahead of any of the other parties.

An energetic local candidate from Coventry as opposed to Marcus Wood an energetic local candidate who had worked the seat for almost 10 years .?

notme

Purseybear said:

Okay here goes with my views then ;-)

Sunday Trading YES PLEASE, FULLY DEREGULATE
Corporal and capital punishment NO and NO
Support for mothers to stay at home and 'place' their kids in day orphanages NO. GIVE THEM CHANCE TO GET BACK TO WORK.
Buy to letters excluding young people from the housing market DUNNO
Sanctity of Marriage NO
Positive discrimination YES
Equalities LOTS OF IT PLEASE
Teaching of sex education in school/ Section 28 YES
Membership of the EU YES
Membership of the UN YES
Lack of membership of the Commonwealth meaning anything DON'T CARE re COMMONWEALTH
Enthusiasm for the Monarchy and British Traditions NOT V INTERESTED IN MONARCHY
Spending billions on new railways YES PLEASE
Abortion NEUTRAL
Divorce Laws WHAT ABOUT THEM?
Protectionism in the workplace YES
Police Priorities WHAT ABOUT THEM?
Hate Laws WHAT ARE THEY?
Speed limits and attitude to motorist YES MORE PLEASE IN BUILT UP AREAS
Bring back pre decimal currency (sorry I've been reading Peter Hitchens this morning) NO



Wonder what that makes me? And don't say 'confused' :-)

Someone who needs put up against the wall?

anotherDave

surbiton said:

There is one massive opportunity for Miliband in the debate of the 16th. The problem is he might not take it.

Portray Labour as the party that will stay in the EU and let Farage bang on about how bad the EU is . UKIP will then have a field day with the anti EU lot - no other similar comments. All others one way or the other are pro EU.

Miliband could just summarize thus: If you want to stay in the EU, Labour will fight for Britain's interest but we will stay in the EU. If you do want to stay in the EU, you can always vote for UKIP

"The Party of In" was not a big winner for Mr Clegg. The LDs went on to lose 10 of 11 MEPs.

NickPalmer

RedBox vividly lays into everyone:

http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/da8ce53cf0240070ce6c69c48cd588ee.html

peterelectionfollo

Yes it will be difficult to cancel TV debates in future general elections but I firmly believe we will usually NOT see head to head debate with 2 major parties.

I am inclined to think that debates in this general election will not be as influential as they probably were in 2010.