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A couple more targetted leaflets from LDs turned up - first was highlighting Green credentials and other touchy feeling stuff, addressed to my wife.
The other was more on promoting SMEs, and business climate in danger from majority Labour government, with a end note that the Tories are out of the race, advising me to vote LD. But can Williams be trusted not to back a minority Lab government....
Shameless stuff - but they do seem to be determined to hang on in Bristol W.
A Green newspaper turned up today, haven't yet read it - but haven't noticed anything from Tories, UKIP or Labour.0 -
Would that be the Mr Balls who would not want to reverse even a single measure in Osbornes recent budget? The one who has a visible rift with Miliband over spending policy?roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.
Or the one who was hand in glove with Brown and did not recognise the economic storm clouds gathering in the noughties?0 -
Jack
"At this rate you'll turn the other cheek to my ARSE and become a fully fledged admirer.
I'm an admirer of your tenacity Jack but I can't help feeling it's holed.0 -
If Ed Balls is that bright and is well aware that he is talking bollocks - then you have to wonder why he perseveres in politics? It must be quite soul destroying.FrancisUrquhart said:
I would have sent Osborne to party leader or whatever, let him play politics day in day out..that seems to be the sort of thing he likes doing.HYUFD said:FU Indeed, it may well have been better to have Hammond as C of E, IDS at Defence, Webb at welfare and Fox at Health,, Estelle Morris found the portfolio a bit too much to handle in the end
As I said below it isn't black and white. What I would say about PE teacher -> education secretary, that is a huge leap. I think you have to respect her for saying actually it is too much of a stretch. Alan Johnson at shadow chancellor, the same. He is by all accounts a nice bloke, heart in the right place and there is certainly a place for him in politics, but not as chancellor / shadow chancellor.
That is quite different from being a bod at IFS, then professor at a top uni, then being asked to look at pensions.
The trolls saying Ed Balls is super bright, and Osborne is an idiot. I don't think anybody doubts Ed Balls is very bright, the issue is (like Osborne) everything is filtered through the prism of politics. Balls knows well he is talking balls with some of the policies and also hence why we get the briefing pointing podgy fingers at its Ed Miliband making me do this.
Although anyone who worked for Gordon Brown probably lost their soul many moons ago.0 -
Well I've bought £5 at 30 and sold £2 at 26 so far tonight. No idea what the bods on the other side think.Purseybear said:labour in from 30 to 26. good poll coming?
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Survation poll in 2 minutes.0
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Seems like she got under your skin?isam said:
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
You don't seem too happy. Just saying?0 -
maybe one of the polls is better news for labour? Soon find out.Pulpstar said:
Well I've bought £5 at 30 and sold £2 at 26 so far tonight. No idea what the bods on the other side think.Purseybear said:labour in from 30 to 26. good poll coming?
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Labour won't be ahead by 6% methinks.0
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Survation
CON 30%+1
LAB 34%+1
LD 10%=
UKIP 17%-2
SNP 4%=
GRE 3%+1
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Our resident troll, as well has getting Balls degree wrong, has got the "feud" wrong too...
http://web.archive.org/web/20110403052914/http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2011/03/30/origins-of-the-cameron-balls-feud/
Must try harder I think.0 -
Tick tock comments due imminently.
NEW Survation/MOS Post Budget Chg vs Feb 24: CON 30%+1 LAB 34%+1 LD 10%nc UKIP 17%-2 SNP 4%nc GRE 3%-1 AP 1%nc Tabs: http://t.co/Iar7zmM3sS
— Survation. (@Survation) March 21, 20150 -
46% haven't a clue what Agincourt was.
24% like their battle commanders pissed. Well, it worked for Churchill I suppose.....0 -
These polls are starting to remind me of the England France game. One way and then the other.0
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Survation out plus the Agincourt question. See header0
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Tories 1 - Labour 1TheScreamingEagles said:Survation
CON 30%+1
LAB 34%+1
LD 10%=
UKIP 17%-2
SNP 4%=
GRE 3%+1
I have to say, I don't think the budget will make any difference one way or the other. By middle of next week, we will probably be back to neck and neck.0 -
Eagles, Have you seen the SNP subsample ?
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I'm guessing an average of all four post budget polls would be close to ..neck and neck0
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Education...education...education....MarqueeMark said:46% haven't a clue what Agincourt was.
24% like their battle commanders pissed. Well, it worked for Churchill I suppose.....0 -
He is one of the most quietly competent ministers in the government. He seems to have quite a large personal following too, judging by his electoral record. I hope he survives the coming LD cull.JackW said:
Quite so.DavidL said:
His reforms on public sector pensions may prove to be even more important and have arguably been the most important single thing that this government has done to address the structural deficit it inherited.JackW said:
At Minister of State level Steve Webb has been the outstanding Coalition minister. The liberalisation of the pension market and other reforms in the sector will be an important legacy of this government.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't think it is by chance that some of the best policies by the Coalition has been pension reform, driven by Steve Webb, who has a background of working for IFS and as a professor in this field.Charles said:
Hammond was too junior and too much of a beancounter to be CoE. IIRC, the original idea was for him to have been Ch. Secretary, which would have been the ideal post for him.FrancisUrquhart said:
I refer the [dis]honourable gentleman to my post below, where I made exactly this point.Smarmeron said:@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.
It's particularly noticeable that IDS is, even within the context of ministerial loyalty, most fulsome in his praise of Webb. One gets the impression IDS would want to keep Webb in post even if the Conservatives had a majority.
Sadly he is not in the running to be leader. It would be a novelty to have a party leader chosen on the basis of competence!0 -
Well, they can't both be right, can they?0
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I'm top price on Labour majority right now - an amazing 26-1
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Which one best resembles Wellington?0
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Even under Survation, the Tories are pulling away from UKIP.0
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Surely "don't know" is the only sensible answer to such a ridiculous question.MikeSmithson said:Survation out plus the Agincourt question. See header
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Cons haven't been above 31% with the Sunday Mirror/ Survation since last May.MarqueeMark said:Even under Survation, the Tories are pulling away from UKIP.
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That's one way to put itMarqueeMark said:Even under Survation, the Tories are pulling away from UKIP.
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SNP vs Greens will be an interesting battle to see who can get most votes.0
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Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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FU Indeed, and to their credit both Morris and Alan Johnson admitted they were not really up to the roles they were given, though Johnson would have made a far better Labour leader than Ed Miliband and Estelle Morris did OK as a schools' minister0
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Anyone running scared of televised debates is not going to make a suitable wartime leader. Hence why all he could achieve is 17% in the poll.MarqueeMark said:46% haven't a clue what Agincourt was.
24% like their battle commanders pissed. Well, it worked for Churchill I suppose.....
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Well it's all about the polling innit? That's what we are here to talk about. A little partisan frivolity is an inevitable spin-off from that process.isam said:You know what the saddest thing is about these pathetic "My Dads bigger than your Dad" style squabbles over opinion polls/when the fieldwork was/why my side isn't doing well excuses? The spin, the trolling, the smart arsery etc...
It will never stop.. the result in May will not be accepted as defeat by anyone on here with good grace. Those who did well will be damned with faint praise, those that did badly will blame everyone but themselves, and most people will say they were right all along by pointing out the good bets they had/points they made, & forgetting all their bets that lost/the things they argued for that they were wrong about
What is needed, actually, is for someone to address the fact that VI polling is fundamentally broken. From an epistemological point of view it is untestable because it asks a counterfactual (except if it's conducted on 6 May) so we never get to find out the answer, we can only calibrate against other polls which themselves can only be calibrated ... etc. Evidentially it's rubbish because it asks questions of two extraordinarily odd subsets of humanity: first those who have a landline and answer it to unrecognised callers and don't then claim to have left something on the stove when they hear the word "poll", and secondly those who are prepared to put in 40 minutes online answering questions as to which brand of catfood they would recommend to their friends, in order to earn 2.3p.
To solve problem 2. I would like to see a consortium of big shopping/banking/gambling etc websites, which demand a login, randomly putting a VI question into the login procedure. Problem 1 is insoluble and simply needs to be recognised as a limitation on polling.
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Excellent, was beginning to doubt the poll for a second thereTheScreamingEagles said:Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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Survation questions:
Which parties would you consider voting for? (Would/ Would not)
Con 48/52
Lab 54/47
LD 34/66
UKIP 33/67
Grn 30/700 -
It is for the Mirror....TheScreamingEagles said:Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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Hurrah for Survation, determined to be the Angus Reid of the 2015 GE. It couldn't even correctly report the change on last month's numbers! Where do they do their sampling, the Sedgefield Labour Club!!0
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Thread header says Mail.TGOHF said:
It is for the Mirror....TheScreamingEagles said:Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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Post of the evening so far "untestable because it asks a counterfactual (except if it's conducted on 6 May) so we never get to find out the answer, we can only calibrate against other polls which themselves can only be calibrated ... etc"Ishmael_X said:
Well it's all about the polling innit? That's what we are here to talk about. A little partisan frivolity is an inevitable spin-off from that process.isam said:You know what the saddest thing is about these pathetic "My Dads bigger than your Dad" style squabbles over opinion polls/when the fieldwork was/why my side isn't doing well excuses? The spin, the trolling, the smart arsery etc...
It will never stop.. the result in May will not be accepted as defeat by anyone on here with good grace. Those who did well will be damned with faint praise, those that did badly will blame everyone but themselves, and most people will say they were right all along by pointing out the good bets they had/points they made, & forgetting all their bets that lost/the things they argued for that they were wrong about
What is needed, actually, is for someone to address the fact that VI polling is fundamentally broken. From an epistemological point of view it is untestable because it asks a counterfactual (except if it's conducted on 6 May) so we never get to find out the answer, we can only calibrate against other polls which themselves can only be calibrated ... etc. Evidentially it's rubbish because it asks questions of two extraordinarily odd subsets of humanity: first those who have a landline and answer it to unrecognised callers and don't then claim to have left something on the stove when they hear the word "poll", and secondly those who are prepared to put in 40 minutes online answering questions as to which brand of catfood they would recommend to their friends, in order to earn 2.3p.
To solve problem 2. I would like to see a consortium of big shopping/banking/gambling etc websites, which demand a login, randomly putting a VI question into the login procedure. Problem 1 is insoluble and simply needs to be recognised as a limitation on polling.0 -
Yeah, but Dave would win the equivalent question on Waterloo.
I mean, we all know, how good an Eton Educated Tory Prime Minister is giving the French a lesson.0 -
Mr. SE, could equally argue that refusing battle on weak terrain is good sense.0
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Bloody brilliant post. Should be cut and pasted at the top of every thread header 'twixt now and the election.Ishmael_X said:
Well it's all about the polling innit? That's what we are here to talk about. A little partisan frivolity is an inevitable spin-off from that process.isam said:You know what the saddest thing is about these pathetic "My Dads bigger than your Dad" style squabbles over opinion polls/when the fieldwork was/why my side isn't doing well excuses? The spin, the trolling, the smart arsery etc...
It will never stop.. the result in May will not be accepted as defeat by anyone on here with good grace. Those who did well will be damned with faint praise, those that did badly will blame everyone but themselves, and most people will say they were right all along by pointing out the good bets they had/points they made, & forgetting all their bets that lost/the things they argued for that they were wrong about
What is needed, actually, is for someone to address the fact that VI polling is fundamentally broken. From an epistemological point of view it is untestable because it asks a counterfactual (except if it's conducted on 6 May) so we never get to find out the answer, we can only calibrate against other polls which themselves can only be calibrated ... etc. Evidentially it's rubbish because it asks questions of two extraordinarily odd subsets of humanity: first those who have a landline and answer it to unrecognised callers and don't then claim to have left something on the stove when they hear the word "poll", and secondly those who are prepared to put in 40 minutes online answering questions as to which brand of catfood they would recommend to their friends, in order to earn 2.3p.
To solve problem 2. I would like to see a consortium of big shopping/banking/gambling etc websites, which demand a login, randomly putting a VI question into the login procedure. Problem 1 is insoluble and simply needs to be recognised as a limitation on polling.0 -
The whole Scottish Sub-sample is a hoot.Pulpstar said:Eagles, Have you seen the SNP subsample ?
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Half that Labour 54% muttered under their breath "...but not until they get rid of that Ed Miliband...."Artist said:Survation questions:
Which parties would you consider voting for? (Would/ Would not)
Con 48/52
Lab 54/47
LD 34/66
UKIP 33/67
Grn 30/70
Probably.
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Last MoS poll was last year.TheScreamingEagles said:Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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Polls, Schmolls. Follow the ARSE!Ishmael_X said:
Well it's all about the polling innit? That's what we are here to talk about. A little partisan frivolity is an inevitable spin-off from that process.isam said:You know what the saddest thing is about these pathetic "My Dads bigger than your Dad" style squabbles over opinion polls/when the fieldwork was/why my side isn't doing well excuses? The spin, the trolling, the smart arsery etc...
It will never stop.. the result in May will not be accepted as defeat by anyone on here with good grace. Those who did well will be damned with faint praise, those that did badly will blame everyone but themselves, and most people will say they were right all along by pointing out the good bets they had/points they made, & forgetting all their bets that lost/the things they argued for that they were wrong about
What is needed, actually, is for someone to address the fact that VI polling is fundamentally broken. From an epistemological point of view it is untestable because it asks a counterfactual (except if it's conducted on 6 May) so we never get to find out the answer, we can only calibrate against other polls which themselves can only be calibrated ... etc. Evidentially it's rubbish because it asks questions of two extraordinarily odd subsets of humanity: first those who have a landline and answer it to unrecognised callers and don't then claim to have left something on the stove when they hear the word "poll", and secondly those who are prepared to put in 40 minutes online answering questions as to which brand of catfood they would recommend to their friends, in order to earn 2.3p.
To solve problem 2. I would like to see a consortium of big shopping/banking/gambling etc websites, which demand a login, randomly putting a VI question into the login procedure. Problem 1 is insoluble and simply needs to be recognised as a limitation on polling.0 -
But I'm comparing to the last Survation poll which was for the Mirror last month.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Last MoS poll was last year.TheScreamingEagles said:Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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Different clients different agendas.TheScreamingEagles said:
But I'm comparing to the last Survation poll which was for the Mirror last month.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Last MoS poll was last year.TheScreamingEagles said:Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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True. True.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. SE, could equally argue that refusing battle on weak terrain is good sense.
But as a Kipper I want to see Farage give Dave a grilling.
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He's done the sensible thing. you can get in a situation with a rabble rouser thats a no win. Doesn't mean he's wrong to avoid it. the opposite.MP_SE said:
True. True.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. SE, could equally argue that refusing battle on weak terrain is good sense.
But as a Kipper I want to see Farage give Dave a grilling.
If you like farage that's up to you but you're in a minority.0 -
Survation have not seen Con above 31 since last May. Never mind Thursday to Saturday.MikeSmithson said:0 -
Anybody seen the ComRes poll that they undertook in Thanet South that I had the dubious pleasure to be a part of?!0
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Budget unbounce already?MikeSmithson said:0 -
Confusing polls. As someone else said below, they can't both be right.
They could both be wrong though...0 -
Nope, probably a private poll.RepublicanTory said:Anybody seen the ComRes poll that they undertook in Thanet South that I had the dubious pleasure to be a part of?!
So we're never going to see it.0 -
so just one more poll tonight? you gov for sun times?0
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Survation an outlier....non-gold standard......not what I am hearing in the Duck and Snail.....not what I am hearing on the doorstep........not being reflected in the betting markets....completely wrong(take your pick).
Rob, told you, that you wouldn't have to wait long for a poll showing different ;-)0 -
After Opinium, Lab were 0.1% ahead in ELBOW this week so far, now with Survation they are 0.3% ahead...TheScreamingEagles said:
But I'm comparing to the last Survation poll which was for the Mirror last month.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Last MoS poll was last year.TheScreamingEagles said:Hang on a cotton picking moment. Survation have messed up. It is con +2 and Lab no change on their last poll.
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You got luckycompouter2 said:Survation an outlier....non-gold standard......not what I am hearing in the Duck and Snail.....not what I am hearing on the doorstep........not being reflected in the betting markets....completely wrong(take your pick).
Rob, told you, that you wouldn't have to wait long for a poll showing different ;-) 0 -
Don't worry there is another one following soon ;-)RobD said:
You got luckycompouter2 said:Survation an outlier....non-gold standard......not what I am hearing in the Duck and Snail.....not what I am hearing on the doorstep........not being reflected in the betting markets....completely wrong(take your pick).
Rob, told you, that you wouldn't have to wait long for a poll showing different ;-)0 -
There seems to be a real disconnect between the generally encouraging ratings for Cameron and Osborne on their record, and the bare voting intention figures.
But then if it wasn't for UKIP, I think the Tories would be on c40% and we'd be talking about a Dave majority. (Of course, if the Tories had been getting those numbers, then Ed would have been ditched in favour of someone else by now)
I suspect a large number of people in this country are very comfortable with a Cameron Government continuing, and may well assume that will happen - but the problem is a good proportion of those folk are telling the pollsters they'd vote UKIP.
I wonder how many of them will actually vote for the Purple Peril in May - and put EdM into No 10?0 -
Talking of our French friends, Ed M. reminds me of the Dauphin, as played by Kenneth Williams.0
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Survation. The stylish pollster
Labour ahead. Post budget chic0 -
Swingback unbouncing with crossover dismissives?bigjohnowls said:
Budget unbounce already?MikeSmithson said:0 -
The victory at Agincourt was because of appalling French tactics, combined with a British choice of battlefield not suitable for cavalry.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. SE, could equally argue that refusing battle on weak terrain is good sense.
Not sure that any of our leaders is as astute enough for that, but Dave seems best at not interrupting an enemy while he is making a mistake.
Farage would give a rousing speech while in his cups. Falstaff rather than Harry.
Ed would be good at dispatching the wounded with a knife in the back while ransoming the captured nobles back to their mansions.
Its horses for courses really!0 -
Nick Clegg thought the same but the polls after the debates said otherwise.Purseybear said:
He's done the sensible thing. you can get in a situation with a rabble rouser thats a no win. Doesn't mean he's wrong to avoid it. the opposite.MP_SE said:
True. True.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. SE, could equally argue that refusing battle on weak terrain is good sense.
But as a Kipper I want to see Farage give Dave a grilling.
If you like farage that's up to you but you're in a minority.
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On the interminable debates issue, I don't subscribe to the view that this is victory for Dave.
It's a humiliation for him. And I'm embarrassed to be a Conservative and Cameron supporter.
I cannot see why he is running away from a head to head with a someone he should be easily capable of demolishing in a one on one encounter, where he's not outnumbered by lefties.
He looks pathetic, to be frank. And no wonder EdM is going to beat him up about it all the way to May 7th. I don't blame him.0 -
We're definitely seeing a bit of reverse double un-crossover swingback, that's for sure:compouter2 said:
Swingback unbouncing with crossover dismissives?bigjohnowls said:
Budget unbounce already?MikeSmithson said:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf0 -
If it is a good result for Labour we might. Labour odds on Thanet South have shortened over the last few days. Could be due to Mike's article generating interest or a closer than previously thought poll.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, probably a private poll.RepublicanTory said:Anybody seen the ComRes poll that they undertook in Thanet South that I had the dubious pleasure to be a part of?!
So we're never going to see it.
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Mr. Foxinsox, indeed. The French were as foolish as Antiochus III at Magnesia, or Varro at Cannae. Buggering up the form book is something best left to rare genius (such as Quintus Fabius Maximus).0
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Thats actually untrue. they could both be right within margin of error so tories around 33%ish and labour around the same, both giving the result for these two polls so far.frpenkridge said:Well, they can't both be right, can they?
if you want to go by trend then the tories have most heart from them: up in both. but then they should be after the budget.0 -
Mike's article.MP_SE said:
If it is a good result for Labour we might. Labour odds on Thanet South have shortened over the last few days. Could be due to Mike's article generating interest or a closer than previously thought poll.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, probably a private poll.RepublicanTory said:Anybody seen the ComRes poll that they undertook in Thanet South that I had the dubious pleasure to be a part of?!
So we're never going to see it.0 -
Perfectly happyPurseybear said:
Seems like she got under your skin?isam said:
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
You don't seem too happy. Just saying?
I think you are an absolute tool, but that's of little importance
Just sayin'0 -
One decent thing to come of the Muslim terrorist murders in Paris is that those on here that used to call French people 'frogs' have learned their lesson
Maybe an atrocity in Ireland will see the end of 'bog trotter'?0 -
I've been right, within a margin of error, in many an argument.Purseybear said:
Thats actually untrue. they could both be right within margin of error so tories around 33%ish and labour around the same, both giving the result for these two polls so far.frpenkridge said:Well, they can't both be right, can they?
if you want to go by trend then the tories have most heart from them: up in both. but then they should be after the budget.
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Roller CoasterRobD said:
We're definitely seeing a bit of reverse double un-crossover swingback, that's for sure:compouter2 said:
Swingback unbouncing with crossover dismissives?bigjohnowls said:
Budget unbounce already?MikeSmithson said:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf0 -
The term is "PollerCoaster"bigjohnowls said:
Roller CoasterRobD said:
We're definitely seeing a bit of reverse double un-crossover swingback, that's for sure:compouter2 said:
Swingback unbouncing with crossover dismissives?bigjohnowls said:
Budget unbounce already?MikeSmithson said:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
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Pretty sure you haven't clicked the link.. I don't see an 'anonymous owl' reading it!bigjohnowls said:
Roller CoasterRobD said:
We're definitely seeing a bit of reverse double un-crossover swingback, that's for sure:compouter2 said:
Swingback unbouncing with crossover dismissives?bigjohnowls said:
Budget unbounce already?MikeSmithson said:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf 0 -
Gee thanks. Charming. If you go around flaming people like that you're not likely to win many friends. From what I've seen this is a decent enough site and you seem a bit out of odds with comments like that.isam said:Purseybear said:
Seems like she got under your skin?isam said:
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
You don't seem too happy. Just saying?
I think you are an absolute tool, but that's of little importance
Just sayin'0 -
Equally within the margin of error with one poll wrong the Tories could be as high as 38% or as low as 28%.Purseybear said:
Thats actually untrue. they could both be right within margin of error so tories around 33%ish and labour around the same, both giving the result for these two polls so far.frpenkridge said:Well, they can't both be right, can they?
if you want to go by trend then the tories have most heart from them: up in both. but then they should be after the budget.
So I am not sure they tell us much more than we knew already.0 -
ELBOW is your friend.foxinsoxuk said:
Equally within the margin of error with one poll wrong the Tories could be as high as 38% or as low as 28%.Purseybear said:
Thats actually untrue. they could both be right within margin of error so tories around 33%ish and labour around the same, both giving the result for these two polls so far.frpenkridge said:Well, they can't both be right, can they?
if you want to go by trend then the tories have most heart from them: up in both. but then they should be after the budget.
So I am not sure they tell us much more than we knew already.0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/21/cameron-blocked-clegg-tv-debate-general-election?CMP=share_btn_tw
Cowardly Cameron set to run and run0 -
AnytimePurseybear said:
Gee thanks. Charming. If you go around flaming people like that you're not likely to win many friends. From what I've seen this is a decent enough site and you seem a bit out of odds with comments like that.isam said:Purseybear said:
Seems like she got under your skin?isam said:
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
You don't seem too happy. Just saying?
I think you are an absolute tool, but that's of little importance
Just sayin'
Don't worry yourself too much about it0 -
yeah do you see the point though? Both polls could be right if 3 or 3.5% is the margin of error.frpenkridge said:
I've been right, within a margin of error, in many an argument.Purseybear said:
Thats actually untrue. they could both be right within margin of error so tories around 33%ish and labour around the same, both giving the result for these two polls so far.frpenkridge said:Well, they can't both be right, can they?
if you want to go by trend then the tories have most heart from them: up in both. but then they should be after the budget.0 -
Mr. Isam, don't be such a censorious puritan. Besides, the frogs would be offended if we forsook our freedom of expression.0
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I think isam has a vendetta against people with multiple accounts. He's been on a roll ever since outing a (quite obvious) previous offender.Purseybear said:
Gee thanks. Charming. If you go around flaming people like that you're not likely to win many friends. From what I've seen this is a decent enough site and you seem a bit out of odds with comments like that.isam said:Purseybear said:
Seems like she got under your skin?isam said:
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
You don't seem too happy. Just saying?
I think you are an absolute tool, but that's of little importance
Just sayin'0 -
Am I the only one that's noted - Miliband is in all FOUR TV events ?0
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NoPulpstar said:Am I the only one that's noted - Miliband is in all FOUR TV events ?
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Rolling polling trolling, laughoutlouding.0
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Coming after the isam fridge contents scandal, I sense your inner LD breaking out of its chains!isam said:One decent thing to come of the Muslim terrorist murders in Paris is that those on here that used to call French people 'frogs' have learned their lesson
Maybe an atrocity in Ireland will see the end of 'bog trotter'?
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It's not Ed he's bothered about, Bob. It's Farage.Bob__Sykes said:On the interminable debates issue, I don't subscribe to the view that this is victory for Dave.
It's a humiliation for him. And I'm embarrassed to be a Conservative and Cameron supporter.
I cannot see why he is running away from a head to head with a someone he should be easily capable of demolishing in a one on one encounter, where he's not outnumbered by lefties.
He looks pathetic, to be frank. And no wonder EdM is going to beat him up about it all the way to May 7th. I don't blame him.
He can easily out debate Miliband, but Farage has him over immigration, so his strategy from the outset been to minimise the potential damage from this source. He's been fairly successful so far. I'm not sure he will be able to emerge entirely unscathed. It rather depends how the 'debates' play out, but so far so good for him.0 -
What I don't get is that Cameron's personal advantage over Miliband is huge. The Tories need to make this election as Presidential as possible. What could be more presidential than a head to head?Bob__Sykes said:On the interminable debates issue, I don't subscribe to the view that this is victory for Dave.
It's a humiliation for him. And I'm embarrassed to be a Conservative and Cameron supporter.
I cannot see why he is running away from a head to head with a someone he should be easily capable of demolishing in a one on one encounter, where he's not outnumbered by lefties.
He looks pathetic, to be frank. And no wonder EdM is going to beat him up about it all the way to May 7th. I don't blame him.
It is possible that Ed might have a good day. It is also possible that Man Utd might win the league this season. It is just not very likely is it?0 -
I stand correctedTheScreamingEagles said:
The term is "PollerCoaster"bigjohnowls said:
Roller CoasterRobD said:
We're definitely seeing a bit of reverse double un-crossover swingback, that's for sure:compouter2 said:
Swingback unbouncing with crossover dismissives?bigjohnowls said:
Budget unbounce already?MikeSmithson said:
http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
Poller Coaster
Did you tell the OBR that public expenditure in next 4 yrs is one of those poller coaster thingys
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As a Labour strategist put it to me, almost delighted in saying about the debates.DavidL said:
What I don't get is that Cameron's personal advantage over Miliband is huge. The Tories need to make this election as Presidential as possible. What could be more presidential than a head to head?Bob__Sykes said:On the interminable debates issue, I don't subscribe to the view that this is victory for Dave.
It's a humiliation for him. And I'm embarrassed to be a Conservative and Cameron supporter.
I cannot see why he is running away from a head to head with a someone he should be easily capable of demolishing in a one on one encounter, where he's not outnumbered by lefties.
He looks pathetic, to be frank. And no wonder EdM is going to beat him up about it all the way to May 7th. I don't blame him.
It is possible that Ed might have a good day. It is also possible that Man Utd might win the league this season. It is just not very likely is it?
Think of Cameron as Liverpool last season.
Ed Miliband as Man City
And Farage as Chelsea.
Liverpool beat City, but came a cropper against Chelsea, which ultimately handed the title to City.0 -
I see that Priti Patel is out and about in Broxtowe on Thursday.
Does Jack's ARSE still have it as TCTC?0 -
oh i see,. well no excuse for rudeness especially against relative newcomers and newbies. not unless this place is just a clique?RobD said:
I think isam has a vendetta against people with multiple accounts. He's been on a roll ever since outing a (quite obvious) previous offender.Purseybear said:
Gee thanks. Charming. If you go around flaming people like that you're not likely to win many friends. From what I've seen this is a decent enough site and you seem a bit out of odds with comments like that.isam said:Purseybear said:
Seems like she got under your skin?isam said:
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
You don't seem too happy. Just saying?
I think you are an absolute tool, but that's of little importance
Just sayin'0 -
Even if Ed has a decent debate the "analysis" will 'reveal' a thumping victory for Dave in the next day's papers.DavidL said:
What I don't get is that Cameron's personal advantage over Miliband is huge. The Tories need to make this election as Presidential as possible. What could be more presidential than a head to head?Bob__Sykes said:On the interminable debates issue, I don't subscribe to the view that this is victory for Dave.
It's a humiliation for him. And I'm embarrassed to be a Conservative and Cameron supporter.
I cannot see why he is running away from a head to head with a someone he should be easily capable of demolishing in a one on one encounter, where he's not outnumbered by lefties.
He looks pathetic, to be frank. And no wonder EdM is going to beat him up about it all the way to May 7th. I don't blame him.
It is possible that Ed might have a good day. It is also possible that Man Utd might win the league this season. It is just not very likely is it?0 -
While there is some validity in meta-analysis it does require a bit more than a weighted average.Pulpstar said:
ELBOW is your friend.foxinsoxuk said:
Equally within the margin of error with one poll wrong the Tories could be as high as 38% or as low as 28%.Purseybear said:
Thats actually untrue. they could both be right within margin of error so tories around 33%ish and labour around the same, both giving the result for these two polls so far.frpenkridge said:Well, they can't both be right, can they?
if you want to go by trend then the tories have most heart from them: up in both. but then they should be after the budget.
So I am not sure they tell us much more than we knew already.
I favour the ARSE over the ELBOW!0 -
All the cool kids are PB Tories.. just so you knowPurseybear said:
oh i see,. well no excuse for rudeness especially against relative newcomers and newbies. not unless this place is just a clique?RobD said:
I think isam has a vendetta against people with multiple accounts. He's been on a roll ever since outing a (quite obvious) previous offender.Purseybear said:
Gee thanks. Charming. If you go around flaming people like that you're not likely to win many friends. From what I've seen this is a decent enough site and you seem a bit out of odds with comments like that.isam said:Purseybear said:
Seems like she got under your skin?isam said:
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
You don't seem too happy. Just saying?
I think you are an absolute tool, but that's of little importance
Just sayin' 0
