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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Saturday night rolling polling thread
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Opinium/Observer: Post #budget bounce for @Conservatives #GE2015
http://t.co/U1yWx1e7iO pic.twitter.com/WUe0L292H5
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Although Mike Brown's quick tap and subsequent appalling chip through went on to top it..
I reckon the current Scottish Rugby team is karma for making me very grumpy in 1990.
O/T Interesting C4 programme now by Will Hutton on foreign takeovers of British companies
Key problem at the moment is Scott Johnson.
He's a fraud and is destroying Scottish Rugby.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
Overall, a close second behind Ireland is probably a fair result this year. England are probably the most dangerous attacking side in the 6 nations, but still make far more mistakes than they should. Ireland and Wales looking in really good nick too - can't wait for the World Cup.
Tories (England) convincingly thump Labour (France) but are denied the trophy due to an utterly inept showing by Scottish Labour (Scotland) who are trounced by Ireland (SNP) lifting the title.
Wales (UKIP) put the Lib Dems (Italy) to the sword
There was talk a few weeks ago about all the lefties getting jobs as "principals" at Oxbridge colleges, which used to be jobs for academics with years of service, but now appears to be increasingly placemen jobs...he is yet another. After bankrupting the last organization he was head of, I hope Hertford College have got some deep pockets.
Some 75% said plans to raise the tax-free threshold, first to £10,800 and then to £11,000 in 2016, were “believable” while 61% said the measure would make them better off.
Similarly, 64% thought his decision to freeze petrol duty was credible, and 59% said it would have a positive effect on their finances.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/21/budget-bounce-takes-tories-ahead-of-labour-by-three-points-in-the-polls?CMP=share_btn_tw
If TSE had written this thread, would it have been a Rick Rolling thread?
Oh for the heady days of 2001 to 2007 where it all started to go wrong culminating in the great recession
Jeez we really did not know how lucky we really were
I will give Blair one thing though his timing was perfect and he dumped the architect Brown in the hot seat just as the proverbial hit the fan.
Recovering from a calamity like Brown takes more than 5 years. But things can only get better as long as the lunatics do not back in charge of the asylum.
Bit like I would prefer CoE to have a bit more than a history degree and no real experience of business and commerce.
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.
The Conservatives want to take us back to 1996
Labour want to take us back to 1976
UKIP want to take us back to 1956
The Lib Dems want to take us back to 1906
The SNP want to take us back to 1596
Plaid Cwmru want to take us back to 1276
Islam wants to take us back to 626
And the Greens want to take us back to -56
Have to wait and see how the other polls go.
Shame no one stayed for the women's match afterwards...
I had the pleasure of seeing Hutton give an economics lecturer. He is simply one of those stratospherically intelligent people who has an insight and wisdom that is beyond mere mortals. I very much doubt that anyone with this kind of intelligence could live within the constraints of a political party where you are required to mumble "long term economic plan" every ten seconds.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
I don't think it is by chance that some of the best policies by the Coalition has been pension reform, driven by Steve Webb, who has a background of working for IFS and as a professor in this field.
It obviously isn't black and white, who will be good in such and such a role, but I certainly think we have far too many politicians in prominent positions who have no idea about the field they are covering.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
But ignoring the fiscal deficit is the road to ruin for all of us and Labour are in la-la land about it.
You are right that the systems that Brown put in place to regulate our banks were completely unfit for any purpose though.
Its a bit like saying those who got a biological science degrees are doctors. Nothing wrong with that course, but you need to go back to uni for another 3+ years before they will let you near patients unaccompanied.
These new troll accounts are rather poor.
The only thing keeping my spirits up is that I'm usually wrong.
Politics is made for people who are slightly average but fiercely ambitious. Plodders with big egos
Arf - Roger, if you can make comments like that, then there is hope for you yet.
If Labour is elected I expect the Pound to fall, confidence to disappear and fear return to much of the economy. If a Conservative govt I expect to retain the confidence of the markets and the current gentle uptick to continue.
So how do I answer those questions? In the end I answered pessimistically in expectation of a Lab victory and the resulting doom. But if everyone took that tack the published poll results would be spun as anti-Budget, yes? And I am in favour of the Budget measures.
Genuinely, what should one do in such polling circumstances?
As I said below it isn't black and white. What I would say about PE teacher -> education secretary, that is a huge leap. I think you have to respect her for saying actually it is too much of a stretch. Alan Johnson at shadow chancellor, the same. He is by all accounts a nice bloke, heart in the right place and there is certainly a place for him in politics, but not as chancellor / shadow chancellor.
That is quite different from being a bod at IFS, then professor at a top uni, then being asked to look at pensions.
The trolls saying Ed Balls is super bright, and Osborne is an idiot. I don't think anybody doubts Ed Balls is very bright, the issue is (like Osborne) everything is filtered through the prism of politics. Balls knows well he is talking balls with some of the policies and also hence why we get the briefing pointing podgy fingers at its Ed Miliband making me do this.
Mr. Tyson, my suggestion isn't that Hutton's a narcissist, but that he's not worth listening to.
At this rate you'll turn the other cheek to my ARSE and become a fully fledged admirer.
Politics is for these purposes a 46 day game, if you call that long. Oh and Balls has lost it.
It's particularly noticeable that IDS is, even within the context of ministerial loyalty, most fulsome in his praise of Webb. One gets the impression IDS would want to keep Webb in post even if the Conservatives had a majority.
It will never stop.. the result in May will not be accepted as defeat by anyone on here with good grace. Those who did well will be damned with faint praise, those that did badly will blame everyone but themselves, and most people will say they were right all along by pointing out the good bets they had/points they made, & forgetting all their bets that lost/the things they argued for that they were wrong about
He is clever though.
Must dash..