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Opinium/Observer: Post #budget bounce for @Conservatives #GE2015
http://t.co/U1yWx1e7iO pic.twitter.com/WUe0L292H5
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ELBOW for polls so far this week: Labour lead was 0.5% an hour ago, now 0.1%0
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Napoleon, Joan of Arc, D'Artagnan, Eric Cantona, Rene Descartes, Alexandre Dumas, Asterix, Coco Chanel, Jacques Clouseau, can you hear me, Jacques Clouseau can you hear me, Jacques Clouseau your boys took one hell of beating0
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Football should be played with the feetTheScreamingEagles said:Napoleon, Joan of Arc, D'Artagnan, Eric Cantona, Rene Descartes, Alexandre Dumas, Asterix, Coco Chanel, Jacques Clouseau, can you hear me, Jacques Clouseau can you hear me, Jacques Clouseau your boys took one hell of beating
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FTPT
Worst decision by a player since Scotland decided to put out a rugby team.TheScreamingEagles said:James Haskell deserves to be slapped around the face with a breeze block.
Although Mike Brown's quick tap and subsequent appalling chip through went on to top it..0 -
So more people think Osborne is a good chancellor than think the economy is in a good state....hmmmm0
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TSE But it was Ireland who still came top!0
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At least your soccer team is doing well.Alistair said:FTPT
Worst decision by a player since Scotland decided to put out a rugby team.TheScreamingEagles said:James Haskell deserves to be slapped around the face with a breeze block.
Although Mike Brown's quick tap and subsequent appalling chip through went on to top it..
I reckon the current Scottish Rugby team is karma for making me very grumpy in 1990.0 -
Probably in spite of/beacause ofFrancisUrquhart said:So more people think Osborne is a good chancellor than think the economy is in a good state....hmmmm
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There's also a poll for the Sun on Sunday (thanks @toadmeister) which is usually, but not always, a separate YouGov poll from the Times one0
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That Opinium poll to me looks a very likely general election outcome, especially now there will now be only 1 debate featuring all the major party leaders, and that including 7 of them, much diminishing the debates' impact. Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply seems likely, UK polling report gives Tory 307, Labour 303, LD 12 on the Opinium numbers, minus 30 Scottish seats Labour would end up with about 273.
O/T Interesting C4 programme now by Will Hutton on foreign takeovers of British companies0 -
I could write you a 10,000 word essay on what and why it has gone so wrong for Scotland since professionalism but it would barely scratch the surface.TheScreamingEagles said:
At least your soccer team is doing well.Alistair said:FTPT
Worst decision by a player since Scotland decided to put out a rugby team.TheScreamingEagles said:James Haskell deserves to be slapped around the face with a breeze block.
Although Mike Brown's quick tap and subsequent appalling chip through went on to top it..
I reckon the current Scottish Rugby team is karma for making me very grumpy in 1990.
Key problem at the moment is Scott Johnson.
He's a fraud and is destroying Scottish Rugby.0 -
Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.0 -
If only James Haskell hadn't made that inexplicable decision. If only Stuart Hogg had managed to ground the ball. If only any one of a number of chances against France, Italy and Scotland had been put away ore cleanly. Still, really can't complain about putting 55 points past France. And definitely can't complain about the standard of entertainment on display today. Proper schoolboy rugby with running and passing, and an average of 9 tries per game. Fantastic stuff. I'm not sure whether this England team is up to the standard of 2003 or 2007 but it's the most entertaining England side I've seen.
Overall, a close second behind Ireland is probably a fair result this year. England are probably the most dangerous attacking side in the 6 nations, but still make far more mistakes than they should. Ireland and Wales looking in really good nick too - can't wait for the World Cup.
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The difference is probably a group of mostly Tories who believe "the mess we inherited" is so bad that Osborne is still fixing it.RobD said:
Probably in spite of/beacause ofFrancisUrquhart said:So more people think Osborne is a good chancellor than think the economy is in a good state....hmmmm
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OK Be prepared for some bad analogy:
Tories (England) convincingly thump Labour (France) but are denied the trophy due to an utterly inept showing by Scottish Labour (Scotland) who are trounced by Ireland (SNP) lifting the title.
Wales (UKIP) put the Lib Dems (Italy) to the sword 0 -
Why is Hutton held up as some sort of expert? He is wrong about basically everything, and yes I know the current government asked for his advice. The man has basically no real academic background in the stuff he pontificates on.HYUFD said:
O/T Interesting C4 programme now by Will Hutton on foreign takeovers of British companies
There was talk a few weeks ago about all the lefties getting jobs as "principals" at Oxbridge colleges, which used to be jobs for academics with years of service, but now appears to be increasingly placemen jobs...he is yet another. After bankrupting the last organization he was head of, I hope Hertford College have got some deep pockets.0 -
I think to be heading into a World Cup with serious confidence of being anything other than an outside bet, a side really needs to be doing the Grand Slam at this stage.0
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Overblown patriotism is embarrassing enough when people genuinely mean it0
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Consumer-led recoveries are exactly what tends to get governments re-elected.FrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.0 -
Opinium found voters responded positively to individual announcements in the budget, with a clear majority believing that more populist measures were both credible and would make them better off.
Some 75% said plans to raise the tax-free threshold, first to £10,800 and then to £11,000 in 2016, were “believable” while 61% said the measure would make them better off.
Similarly, 64% thought his decision to freeze petrol duty was credible, and 59% said it would have a positive effect on their finances.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/21/budget-bounce-takes-tories-ahead-of-labour-by-three-points-in-the-polls?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
The Saturday night rolling polling thread
If TSE had written this thread, would it have been a Rick Rolling thread? 0 -
I'd love to know which economic 'experts' you believe.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why is Hutton held up as some sort of expert? He is wrong about basically everything, and yes I know the current government asked for his advice. The man has basically no real academic background in the stuff he pontificates on.HYUFD said:
O/T Interesting C4 programme now by Will Hutton on foreign takeovers of British companies
There was talk a few weeks ago about all the lefties getting jobs as "principals" at Oxbridge colleges, which used to be jobs for academics with years of service, but now appears to be increasingly placemen jobs...he is yet another.0 -
Come May the 7th, will the voters tell Dave and the Tories that we're "Never Gonna Give You Up"SimonStClare said:The Saturday night rolling polling thread
If TSE had written this thread, would it have been a Rick Rolling thread?0 -
FrankBooth said:
Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
Oh for the heady days of 2001 to 2007 where it all started to go wrong culminating in the great recession
Jeez we really did not know how lucky we really were
I will give Blair one thing though his timing was perfect and he dumped the architect Brown in the hot seat just as the proverbial hit the fan.0 -
Pulpstar Though the Greens may be inspired by the Ireland win!0
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No one could pretend our economy is where we want it to be but that is an absurd assessment. Consumer spending is being driven by increased employment. There has been no change in the savings ratio or build up of consumer debt. The deficit is nearly half of what it was in 2010. Still too high and that borrowing is inevitably sucking in imports but better than it was.FrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
Recovering from a calamity like Brown takes more than 5 years. But things can only get better as long as the lunatics do not back in charge of the asylum.0 -
I would prefer those heralded as economics experts to have a bit more than a 2:1 in social sciences and a record of failure thanks.FrankBooth said:
I'd love to know which economic 'experts' you believe.FrancisUrquhart said:
Why is Hutton held up as some sort of expert? He is wrong about basically everything, and yes I know the current government asked for his advice. The man has basically no real academic background in the stuff he pontificates on.HYUFD said:
O/T Interesting C4 programme now by Will Hutton on foreign takeovers of British companies
There was talk a few weeks ago about all the lefties getting jobs as "principals" at Oxbridge colleges, which used to be jobs for academics with years of service, but now appears to be increasingly placemen jobs...he is yet another.
Bit like I would prefer CoE to have a bit more than a history degree and no real experience of business and commerce.0 -
Are we expecting anything other than the usual YouGov, other than maybe an extra YouGov in the SoS?0
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Survation and two YouGovs tonightJohnLilburne said:Are we expecting anything other than the usual YouGov, other than maybe an extra YouGov in the SoS?
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https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-recordFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
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FU Regardless of his background, he has some interesting points, eg we have several times the number of foreign takeovers of Germany and Japan and double those of the US, partly as a result of voting rights also being traded when shares are bought and sold, Cadbury was used as an interesting case study including interviews with some members of the Cadbury family and their views on the original decision for Cadbury to be open to shareholders0
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We just need those 43% who think Osborne has done a good job to show their gratitude by voting Tory....0
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@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?0 -
I refer the [dis]honourable gentleman to my post below, where I made exactly this point.Smarmeron said:@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.0 -
Ok, the poll in the Sun on Sunday isn't a YouGov poll0
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FU Norman Lamont had an economics degree and worked for Rothschilds, Ken Clarke had a Law degree and was a barrister, who was the better chancellor?0
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The Waybak Political Machine:
The Conservatives want to take us back to 1996
Labour want to take us back to 1976
UKIP want to take us back to 1956
The Lib Dems want to take us back to 1906
The SNP want to take us back to 1596
Plaid Cwmru want to take us back to 1276
Islam wants to take us back to 626
And the Greens want to take us back to -560 -
Good evening, everyone.
Have to wait and see how the other polls go.0 -
Political betting is heading back to '86.weejonnie said:The Waybak Political Machine:
The Conservatives want to take us back to 1996
Labour want to take us back to 1976
UKIP want to take us back to 1956
The Lib Dems want to take us back to 1906
The SNP want to take us back to 1596
Plaid Cwmru want to take us back to 1276
Islam wants to take us back to 626
And the Greens want to take us back to -560 -
The atmosphere at Twickers was phenomenal - I always forget how much better rugby is live vs on TVCookie said:If only James Haskell hadn't made that inexplicable decision. If only Stuart Hogg had managed to ground the ball. If only any one of a number of chances against France, Italy and Scotland had been put away ore cleanly. Still, really can't complain about putting 55 points past France. And definitely can't complain about the standard of entertainment on display today. Proper schoolboy rugby with running and passing, and an average of 9 tries per game. Fantastic stuff. I'm not sure whether this England team is up to the standard of 2003 or 2007 but it's the most entertaining England side I've seen.
Overall, a close second behind Ireland is probably a fair result this year. England are probably the most dangerous attacking side in the 6 nations, but still make far more mistakes than they should. Ireland and Wales looking in really good nick too - can't wait for the World Cup.
Shame no one stayed for the women's match afterwards...0 -
No change in the savings ratio? So it's as bad as ever. Levels of investment are abysmal as they always are. We simply do not have the corporate or financial environment necessary to improve the situation. Corporate bosses reward themselves extravagently whilst generally doing nothing of any lasting value. Our banks are hardwired to lend on commercial and residential property rather than any productive purpose. The government has engaged in various irresponsible ways to pump prime the overheated property market. As for borrowing, you would expect it to be coming down as the economy recovers after a huge financial crisis. The government's job there is nothing remarkable.DavidL said:
No one could pretend our economy is where we want it to be but that is an absurd assessment. Consumer spending is being driven by increased employment. There has been no change in the savings ratio or build up of consumer debt. The deficit is nearly half of what it was in 2010. Still too high and that borrowing is inevitably sucking in imports but better than it was.FrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
Recovering from a calamity like Brown takes more than 5 years. But things can only get better as long as the lunatics do not back in charge of the asylum.0 -
Charles That is a pity, my sister is a keen player of womens' rugby, hopefully a few stayed behind to cheer them on, I see Prince Harry was there, I would imagine he would have had a nose!0
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I am an admirer of Osborne as I have made clear but the level of inward investment is simply the mirror image of our appalling current account deficit. Most of this is being funded by selling former airspace in London which is fine but too many of our productive assets are being sold to fund current spending. But that is what happens when you run a huge fiscal deficit giving our people a level of income we are not actually earning.Flightpath said:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-recordFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.0 -
Very good poll for the Conservatives.If it`s repeated in Survation,one can say they have got a budget boost.0
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Hammond was too junior and too much of a beancounter to be CoE. IIRC, the original idea was for him to have been Ch. Secretary, which would have been the ideal post for him.FrancisUrquhart said:
I refer the [dis]honourable gentleman to my post below, where I made exactly this point.Smarmeron said:@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.0 -
Indeed. We're becoming a nation of serfs again. Howevver it is simply ridiculous to try and reduce the UK's economic problems to fiscal policy. Let's just ignore the huge banking and financial crisis/overhang of debt? Ultimately it just comes down to class. You're a snob and want to blame our problems on poor people claiming benefits. Personally I'd suggest the far bigger problem lies with the grotesque balance sheets our banks were allowed to build up. But that would suggest the problem lies with rich men in suits and you wouldn't like that would you?DavidL said:
I am an admirer of Osborne as I have made clear but the level of inward investment is simply the mirror image of our appalling current account deficit. Most of this is being funded by selling former airspace in London which is fine but too many of our productive assets are being sold to fund current spending. But that is what happens when you run a huge fiscal deficit giving our people a level of income we are not actually earning.Flightpath said:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-recordFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.0 -
This reminds me of the hundred years wars: repeated glorious victories over the French, but we didn't quite life the trophy in the end.TheScreamingEagles said:Napoleon, Joan of Arc, D'Artagnan, Eric Cantona, Rene Descartes, Alexandre Dumas, Asterix, Coco Chanel, Jacques Clouseau, can you hear me, Jacques Clouseau can you hear me, Jacques Clouseau your boys took one hell of beating
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Yep. If. In which case I'm wrong about them. Again.SMukesh said:Very good poll for the Conservatives.If it`s repeated in Survation,one can say they have got a budget boost.
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FrancisUrquhart said:
Why is Hutton held up as some sort of expert? He is wrong about basically everything, and yes I know the current government asked for his advice. The man has basically no real academic background in the stuff he pontificates on.HYUFD said:
O/T Interesting C4 programme now by Will Hutton on foreign takeovers of British companies
There was talk a few weeks ago about all the lefties getting jobs as "principals" at Oxbridge colleges, which used to be jobs for academics with years of service, but now appears to be increasingly placemen jobs...he is yet another. After bankrupting the last organization he was head of, I hope Hertford College have got some deep pockets.
I had the pleasure of seeing Hutton give an economics lecturer. He is simply one of those stratospherically intelligent people who has an insight and wisdom that is beyond mere mortals. I very much doubt that anyone with this kind of intelligence could live within the constraints of a political party where you are required to mumble "long term economic plan" every ten seconds.
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Ridiculous how many 'experts' (for which, read journalists with English degrees who happened to get put on the finance desk early in their careers) have been puzzled by consumer spending rising so far ahead of earnings growth. 1.5% per annum growth in jobs for the last 2 years might just have something to do with it...DavidL said:
No one could pretend our economy is where we want it to be but that is an absurd assessment. Consumer spending is being driven by increased employment. There has been no change in the savings ratio or build up of consumer debt. The deficit is nearly half of what it was in 2010. Still too high and that borrowing is inevitably sucking in imports but better than it was.FrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
Recovering from a calamity like Brown takes more than 5 years. But things can only get better as long as the lunatics do not back in charge of the asylum.0 -
On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.0 -
Cool! The last time that happened was January 15-16thPulpstar said:There's also a poll for the Sun on Sunday (thanks @toadmeister) which is usually, but not always, a separate YouGov poll from the Times one
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Do you know whose doing it for the sun? why have yougov not done their normal weekly?TheScreamingEagles said:Ok, the poll in the Sun on Sunday isn't a YouGov poll
oh dearFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy.
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Politically maybe "too junior", but in terms of his background, he could do the job. Instead they gave him cone counting at transport. But it is politics and also politics of a coalition. Putting all the politics gamery aside, my preference would have had Hammond and Sajid Javid. running the operation.Charles said:
Hammond was too junior and too much of a beancounter to be CoE. IIRC, the original idea was for him to have been Ch. Secretary, which would have been the ideal post for him.FrancisUrquhart said:
I refer the [dis]honourable gentleman to my post below, where I made exactly this point.Smarmeron said:@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.
I don't think it is by chance that some of the best policies by the Coalition has been pension reform, driven by Steve Webb, who has a background of working for IFS and as a professor in this field.
It obviously isn't black and white, who will be good in such and such a role, but I certainly think we have far too many politicians in prominent positions who have no idea about the field they are covering.0 -
The weekly YouGov is typically for the Sunday Time. I think this one is going ahead.Purseybear said:
Do you know whose doing it for the sun? why have yougov not done their normal weekly?TheScreamingEagles said:Ok, the poll in the Sun on Sunday isn't a YouGov poll
oh dearFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy.
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Mr. Tyson, isn't that Hutton chap the same fellow who managed to bankrupt an economic think tank that had existed for over a century before finally being tainted beyond repair by his 'expertise'?0
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Rachel Stevens trending on twitter.0
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Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.0
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Their Scottish weighting is 50 shades of wrong so I wouldn't pay too much attention to the subsample.roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.
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not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?0 -
You are losing it. I am one of the few that has constantly bemoaned the fact that the banksters are not in jail; that has argued that an essential part of reducing the fiscal deficit is increasing the minimum wage and expressed concern about the level of sanctions imposed on those on benefits.FrankBooth said:
Indeed. We're becoming a nation of serfs again. Howevver it is simply ridiculous to try and reduce the UK's economic problems to fiscal policy. Let's just ignore the huge banking and financial crisis/overhang of debt? Ultimately it just comes down to class. You're a snob and want to blame our problems on poor people claiming benefits. Personally I'd suggest the far bigger problem lies with the grotesque balance sheets our banks were allowed to build up. But that would suggest the problem lies with rich men in suits and you wouldn't like that would you?DavidL said:
I am an admirer of Osborne as I have made clear but the level of inward investment is simply the mirror image of our appalling current account deficit. Most of this is being funded by selling former airspace in London which is fine but too many of our productive assets are being sold to fund current spending. But that is what happens when you run a huge fiscal deficit giving our people a level of income we are not actually earning.Flightpath said:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-recordFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
But ignoring the fiscal deficit is the road to ruin for all of us and Labour are in la-la land about it.
You are right that the systems that Brown put in place to regulate our banks were completely unfit for any purpose though.0 -
No he didn't.....he got a first in PPE, not the same thing.roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford
Its a bit like saying those who got a biological science degrees are doctors. Nothing wrong with that course, but you need to go back to uni for another 3+ years before they will let you near patients unaccompanied.
These new troll accounts are rather poor.
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There's various videos of him on youtube giving lectures. He can be a very good speaker if a bit manic at times. What's curious about learning more about economics is how much the Tory approach to the subject is a fringe view nowadays. There's the odd person like Andrew Senteance former member of the MPC, but in amongst serious economists the Keynesians seem to have won the debate.tyson said:FrancisUrquhart said:
Why is Hutton held up as some sort of expert? He is wrong about basically everything, and yes I know the current government asked for his advice. The man has basically no real academic background in the stuff he pontificates on.HYUFD said:
O/T Interesting C4 programme now by Will Hutton on foreign takeovers of British companies
There was talk a few weeks ago about all the lefties getting jobs as "principals" at Oxbridge colleges, which used to be jobs for academics with years of service, but now appears to be increasingly placemen jobs...he is yet another. After bankrupting the last organization he was head of, I hope Hertford College have got some deep pockets.
I had the pleasure of seeing Hutton give an economics lecturer. He is simply one of those stratospherically intelligent people who has an insight and wisdom that is beyond mere mortals. I very much doubt that anyone with this kind of intelligence could live within the constraints of a political party where you are required to mumble "long term economic plan" every ten seconds.0 -
Horseshit.roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.
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Assuming these results are repeated by the two other pollsters-which I suspect they will be-then the game will have changed. So close to the election polls coming out now are unlikely to be three day wonders.
The only thing keeping my spirits up is that I'm usually wrong.0 -
Oxford does not offer bachelors degrees in Economics, and Balls was 4th in his year, so not ' one of the top firsts of all times (sic).roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.
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FU Indeed, it may well have been better to have Hammond as C of E, IDS at Defence, Webb at welfare and Fox at Health, while Ken Clarke should have stayed a Justice Secretary or perhaps been replaced by Simon Hughes, Osborne would also make a better Foreign Secretary than Hammond and be better at smoothing diplomats and foreign ministers. However, having experience in your portfolio can be a mixed blessing, Gillian Shepherd was an ex teacher and did a good job as education secretary, Estelle Morris found the portfolio a bit too much to handle in the end0
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Mr Morris- I do not doubt in any way that genius leads to all sorts of issues- narcissism, most notably. I can cite figures from the right- Enoch Powell was just too intelligent for his own good. Michael Gove is much too clever for mainstream politics, as too is Andrew Lansley.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Tyson, isn't that Hutton chap the same fellow who managed to bankrupt an economic think tank that had existed for over a century before finally being tainted beyond repair by his 'expertise'?
Politics is made for people who are slightly average but fiercely ambitious. Plodders with big egos0 -
The fieldwork for the Opinium poll was near identical to the YouGov poll, which had the Tories ahead by 2%roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.
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The average voter wouldn't understand or be interested in this - the narrative does appear to be changing in favour of the conservatives, especially in the press, and I cannot understand why Ed Miliband agreed to the debates - interviews as I cannot see him improving when he is being attacked from the left and right. Also still moaning about them on TV tonight having agreed them seems strangeFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.0 -
Roger said:
Assuming these results are repeated by the two other pollsters-which I suspect they will be-then the game will have changed. So close to the election polls coming out now are unlikely to be three day wonders.
The only thing keeping my spirits up is that I'm usually wrong.
Arf - Roger, if you can make comments like that, then there is hope for you yet.
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I don't know what Labour's position on the deficit is nowadays but I thought their plan to have the deficit in 2010 far more sensible than the Tory one to eliminate it. There were plenty of Keynesians who pointed out that the Tory plan would likely be self-defeating and it has been. As Adam Posen former MPC member pointed out the Keynesian analysis of the crisis has been proven correct at every stage - be it the impact of austerity on growth, the lack of inflation or the low yields on gilts. I suspect even Osborne realises this now although he was almost beond parody with his anti-Keynesian attitue in 2010. But then it's all about politics with him isn't it?DavidL said:
You are losing it. I am one of the few that has constantly bemoaned the fact that the banksters are not in jail; that has argued that an essential part of reducing the fiscal deficit is increasing the minimum wage and expressed concern about the level of sanctions imposed on those on benefits.FrankBooth said:
Indeed. We're becoming a nation of serfs again. Howevver it is simply ridiculous to try and reduce the UK's economic problems to fiscal policy. Let's just ignore the huge banking and financial crisis/overhang of debt? Ultimately it just comes down to class. You're a snob and want to blame our problems on poor people claiming benefits. Personally I'd suggest the far bigger problem lies with the grotesque balance sheets our banks were allowed to build up. But that would suggest the problem lies with rich men in suits and you wouldn't like that would you?DavidL said:Flightpath said:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-attracts-highest-levels-of-inward-investment-on-recordFrankBooth said:Simply astonishing figures on the economy. Labour and Ukip should be hanging their heads in shame at their inability to hammer the coalition's poor record.
A consumer lead recovery underpinned by cheap money and a massive trade deficit. Levels of saving and investment typically abysmal. The usual warning signs of the British economy about to faulter are all present and correct. None of the long term structural weaknesses in the economy being dealt with. I despair.
But ignoring the fiscal deficit is the road to ruin for all of us and Labour are in la-la land about it.
You are right that the systems that Brown put in place to regulate our banks were completely unfit for any purpose though.0 -
Is that what he told you, Yvette?roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford
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I was YouGov'd last week and there were questions about the economy. They started asking about my experiences in the last 3 months then they asked about my expectations for the next 3 months.
If Labour is elected I expect the Pound to fall, confidence to disappear and fear return to much of the economy. If a Conservative govt I expect to retain the confidence of the markets and the current gentle uptick to continue.
So how do I answer those questions? In the end I answered pessimistically in expectation of a Lab victory and the resulting doom. But if everyone took that tack the published poll results would be spun as anti-Budget, yes? And I am in favour of the Budget measures.
Genuinely, what should one do in such polling circumstances?0 -
At Minister of State level Steve Webb has been the outstanding Coalition minister. The liberalisation of the pension market and other reforms in the sector will be an important legacy of this government.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't think it is by chance that some of the best policies by the Coalition has been pension reform, driven by Steve Webb, who has a background of working for IFS and as a professor in this field.Charles said:
Hammond was too junior and too much of a beancounter to be CoE. IIRC, the original idea was for him to have been Ch. Secretary, which would have been the ideal post for him.FrancisUrquhart said:
I refer the [dis]honourable gentleman to my post below, where I made exactly this point.Smarmeron said:@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.
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FrancisUrquhart said:
No he didn't.....he got a first in PPE, not the same thing.roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford
Its a bit like saying those who got a biological science degrees are doctors. Nothing wrong with that course, but you need to go back to uni for another 3+ years before they will let you near patients unaccompanied.
These new troll accounts are rather poor.
A degree in PPE can be up to 2/3rds economics at finals, to be fair; but it hardly proves much.maaarsh said:
Oxford does not offer bachelors degrees in Economics, and Balls was 4th in his year, so not ' one of the top firsts of all times (sic).roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.
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Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?0 -
I would have sent Osborne to party leader or whatever, let him play politics day in day out..that seems to be the sort of thing he likes doing.HYUFD said:FU Indeed, it may well have been better to have Hammond as C of E, IDS at Defence, Webb at welfare and Fox at Health, while Ken Clarke should have stayed a Justice Secretary or perhaps been replaced by Simon Hughes, Osborne would also make a better Foreign Secretary than Hammond and be better at smoothing diplomats and foreign ministers. However, having experience in your portfolio can be a mixed blessing, Gillian Shepherd was an ex teacher and did a good job as education secretary, Estelle Morris found the portfolio a bit too much to handle in the end
As I said below it isn't black and white. What I would say about PE teacher -> education secretary, that is a huge leap. I think you have to respect her for saying actually it is too much of a stretch. Alan Johnson at shadow chancellor, the same. He is by all accounts a nice bloke, heart in the right place and there is certainly a place for him in politics, but not as chancellor / shadow chancellor.
That is quite different from being a bod at IFS, then professor at a top uni, then being asked to look at pensions.
The trolls saying Ed Balls is super bright, and Osborne is an idiot. I don't think anybody doubts Ed Balls is very bright, the issue is (like Osborne) everything is filtered through the prism of politics. Balls knows well he is talking balls with some of the policies and also hence why we get the briefing pointing podgy fingers at its Ed Miliband making me do this.0 -
His reforms on public sector pensions may prove to be even more important and have arguably been the most important single thing that this government has done to address the structural deficit it inherited.JackW said:
At Minister of State level Steve Webb has been the outstanding Coalition minister. The liberalisation of the pension market and other reforms in the sector will be an important legacy of this government.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't think it is by chance that some of the best policies by the Coalition has been pension reform, driven by Steve Webb, who has a background of working for IFS and as a professor in this field.Charles said:
Hammond was too junior and too much of a beancounter to be CoE. IIRC, the original idea was for him to have been Ch. Secretary, which would have been the ideal post for him.FrancisUrquhart said:
I refer the [dis]honourable gentleman to my post below, where I made exactly this point.Smarmeron said:@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.0 -
Mr. Booth, didn't Keynes advocate extremely low spending during a boom, balanced by rip-roaring spending in a downturn?
Mr. Tyson, my suggestion isn't that Hutton's a narcissist, but that he's not worth listening to.0 -
Steady on Roger ....Roger said:Assuming these results are repeated by the two other pollsters-which I suspect they will be-then the game will have changed. So close to the election polls coming out now are unlikely to be three day wonders.
The only thing keeping my spirits up is that I'm usually wrong.
At this rate you'll turn the other cheek to my ARSE and become a fully fledged admirer.
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Now, now. Let's not let logic get in the way.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, didn't Keynes advocate extremely low spending during a boom, balanced by rip-roaring spending in a downturn?
Mr. Tyson, my suggestion isn't that Hutton's a narcissist, but that he's not worth listening to.0 -
That was Gordon Brown's mantra 'til he decided to ditch it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, didn't Keynes advocate extremely low spending during a boom, balanced by rip-roaring spending in a downturn?
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Keynesism, certainly. Understanding the views of Keynes himself is a more challenging proposition.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, didn't Keynes advocate extremely low spending during a boom, balanced by rip-roaring spending in a downturn?
Mr. Tyson, my suggestion isn't that Hutton's a narcissist, but that he's not worth listening to.0 -
Like a crime wave in a multi-storey car park.roserees64 said:Ed Balls got one of the top firsts of all times in Economics from Oxford,George Osborne got a two one in History,politics is a long game and class will out. A very strange Opinium poll showing Tories ahead in Wales and Labour ahead in Scotland, also fieldwork at the same time as Populus which shows a very different result.I would say that this Opinium is the most blatant outlier we have seen this year-all wrong on so many different levels.
Politics is for these purposes a 46 day game, if you call that long. Oh and Balls has lost it.
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yeah he screwed up the by election polls didn't he?Casino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?0 -
Of course Balls is clever. Didn't he come up with ""Post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory" ?0
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Quite so.DavidL said:
His reforms on public sector pensions may prove to be even more important and have arguably been the most important single thing that this government has done to address the structural deficit it inherited.JackW said:
At Minister of State level Steve Webb has been the outstanding Coalition minister. The liberalisation of the pension market and other reforms in the sector will be an important legacy of this government.FrancisUrquhart said:
I don't think it is by chance that some of the best policies by the Coalition has been pension reform, driven by Steve Webb, who has a background of working for IFS and as a professor in this field.Charles said:
Hammond was too junior and too much of a beancounter to be CoE. IIRC, the original idea was for him to have been Ch. Secretary, which would have been the ideal post for him.FrancisUrquhart said:
I refer the [dis]honourable gentleman to my post below, where I made exactly this point.Smarmeron said:@FrancisUrquhart
"He was given a demyship to Magdalen College, University of Oxford,[3] where he received a 2:1 bachelor's degree in Modern History.[6] He also attended Davidson College in North Carolina for a semester as a Dean Rusk Scholar.[10]"
Like this you mean?
I think I made it pretty clear for a long time that of the current mob in power, Hammond is the best qualified of the likely candidates and should have had the job from day one. A guy who has run several successful companies, consulted for the World Bank, etc.
It's particularly noticeable that IDS is, even within the context of ministerial loyalty, most fulsome in his praise of Webb. One gets the impression IDS would want to keep Webb in post even if the Conservatives had a majority.
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What logical problem do you see? Unless you think I was a supporter of Gordon Brown and his deficit at the top of the cycle which I wasn't. However the national debt and the interest we were paying on it in 2010 were both historically quite low. Given the financial crisis borrowing could be financed cheaply. All that should have been borne in mind beofre embracing a kamikaze fiscal plan. Whilst I thought Labour's plan to halve the deficit more sensible, they should have boosted investment and been more stingey with current spending than they planned.RobD said:
Now, now. Let's not let logic get in the way.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Booth, didn't Keynes advocate extremely low spending during a boom, balanced by rip-roaring spending in a downturn?
Mr. Tyson, my suggestion isn't that Hutton's a narcissist, but that he's not worth listening to.0 -
You know what the saddest thing is about these pathetic "My Dads bigger than your Dad" style squabbles over opinion polls/when the fieldwork was/why my side isn't doing well excuses? The spin, the trolling, the smart arsery etc...
It will never stop.. the result in May will not be accepted as defeat by anyone on here with good grace. Those who did well will be damned with faint praise, those that did badly will blame everyone but themselves, and most people will say they were right all along by pointing out the good bets they had/points they made, & forgetting all their bets that lost/the things they argued for that they were wrong about
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Mr. Grandiose, then they're just picking and choosing whatever bit of theory supports spending more than we can afford.0
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It's the entire p&l that mattersisam said:You know what the saddest thing is about these pathetic "My Dads bigger than your Dad" style squabbles over opinion polls/when the fieldwork was/why my side isn't doing well excuses? The spin, the trolling, the smart arsery etc...
It will never stop.. the result in May will not be accepted as defeat by anyone on here with good grace. Those who did well will be damned with faint praise, those that did badly will blame everyone but themselves, and most people will say they were right all along by pointing out the good bets they had/points they made, & forgetting all their bets that lost/the things they argued for that they were wrong about 0 -
snigger.frpenkridge said:Of course Balls is clever. Didn't he come up with ""Post-neoclassical endogenous growth theory" ?
He is clever though.0 -
Save time and space on here by looking at Audrey Annes old postsCasino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?0 -
Survation poll due at 8.30. I would expect still to show a Labour lead since they have only had one Tory lead of 1% on 26th January. Will be interesting to see what has happened to Labour's 6% lead last month.0
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Vaguely, I'd have to remind myself.Purseybear said:
yeah he screwed up the by election polls didn't he?Casino_Royale said:
Disastrous?Purseybear said:
not sure. it'd be better if ashcroft polled same places every week to iron out moe esp given his disastrous polling last year.Casino_Royale said:On topic: a good start.
But not only would I want to see a similar position in other polls tonight; I'd want to see more positive news from Ashcroft's marginals polls over the coming weeks before I believe it.
Labour out to 30 on betfair. Cons 5.6. have the markets gone crazy?
Must dash..0 -
labour in from 30 to 26. good poll coming?0
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Looks like Stevie Mcrorie is going to hoover up the Scottish housewife vote...0
