politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than seven weeks to go and the Labour Scottish nightma
Comments
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Because she's not standing for Westminster?Ishmael_X said:
I like Sturgeon. It's obvious why the tories are casting Salmond rather than her as the face of the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Anyone who spends virtually all their free time in politics from the age of 16 onwards is going to have a challenge with a sense of humour.DavidL said:
SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.Danny565 said:
On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.DavidL said:
Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.
Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.
What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.
I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.0 -
David Cameron should be making a speech in Birmingham saying that unless the people in Con/Lab Midland marginals promise to vote Conservative, he will turn off the sun.0
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OMG it has started. I knew that gay marriage Act was playing with fire.0
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No, because that would have very little bearing on who was really wielding power over ed m pm. Dim tories out early today.CarlottaVance said:
Because she's not standing for Westminster?Ishmael_X said:
I like Sturgeon. It's obvious why the tories are casting Salmond rather than her as the face of the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Anyone who spends virtually all their free time in politics from the age of 16 onwards is going to have a challenge with a sense of humour.DavidL said:
SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.Danny565 said:
On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.DavidL said:
Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.
Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.
What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.
I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.
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First the floods....now this......!Ishmael_X said:OMG it has started. I knew that gay marriage Act was playing with fire.
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Alanbrooke said:
Smarmy's slipping up ( must have started the whiskey early )RobD said:
Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pickAlanbrooke said:
It's not an eclipse.RobD said:Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?
I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.
Coincidence ?
I think not.
Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)
The BBC reports that the Tory led "savage cuts" result in an 85% reduction of available sunlight.from the same time last year. Ed MIlliband states that families are worse of by 1600 seconds of sunlight as a result0 -
Because, unlike most of England, there are no other major elections taking place in Scotland on May 7th the chances are that many of the early declarations will be from north of the border. In fact it is now being joked that the SNP could be ahead of all parties nationally during the early part of the night.
Sorry am I missing something. Why is this rather interesting point you make a "joke"?0 -
Did anyone catch the transit of Venus a couple of years ago? That was pretty spectacular, but the Sun may not have been up in the UK at the time.0
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Telegraph live coverage of the eclipse:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/science-news/11484521/Solar-eclipse-2015-live.html0 -
Here in the blessed northern realm, we have no need for eclipse glasses!
God has supplied a "16 grade welding glass" cloud cover.0 -
Tonne? Or Ton?logical_song said:Farage will come down on UKIP miscreant like a metric ton (tonne) of bricks.
"We've got to behave absolutely properly and if we see anything we think is wrong, we will come down on it like a tonne of bricks."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-319763430 -
Because it will be a funny thing to see the SNP leading the national vote share even after several seats have declared, given that they will end up with <5% in total at the end.scotslass said:Because, unlike most of England, there are no other major elections taking place in Scotland on May 7th the chances are that many of the early declarations will be from north of the border. In fact it is now being joked that the SNP could be ahead of all parties nationally during the early part of the night.
Sorry am I missing something. Why is this rather interesting point you make a "joke"?0 -
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.CarlottaVance said:
First the floods....now this......!Ishmael_X said:OMG it has started. I knew that gay marriage Act was playing with fire.
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So someone (and her SNP general secretary husband) not even a MP would be wielding power over Ed??Ishmael_X said:
No, because that would have very little bearing on who was really wielding power over ed m pm. Dim tories out early today.CarlottaVance said:
Because she's not standing for Westminster?Ishmael_X said:
I like Sturgeon. It's obvious why the tories are casting Salmond rather than her as the face of the SNP.Casino_Royale said:
Anyone who spends virtually all their free time in politics from the age of 16 onwards is going to have a challenge with a sense of humour.DavidL said:
SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.Danny565 said:
On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.DavidL said:
Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.
Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.
What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.
I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.0 -
I would expect Margaret Curran to insist money is spent in Glasgow East to try and defend it. I reckon she is toast. She is facing Natalie McGarry, the young SNP candidate in Cowdenbeath at the by-election last year. 2 interesting facts about her, she is the niece of Holyrood Presiding Officer Tricia Marwick and her partner is Glasgow's only Tory councillor.
Douglas Alexander's seat would be the one I would expect most effort by SLAB to defend closely followed of course by East Renfrewshire. However don't ignore the Gordon Brown bullying which will go on behind the scenes. If he thinks the SNP could win Kirkcaldy, he would demand all SLAB's efforts be put into holding it.
I cant see much effort being put in to Dumfries and Galloway. Russell Brown has already defied gravity twice in a seat which has historically been a Tory v SNP marginal since the 1974 elections. Similarly next year at Holyrood, I cant see Elaine Murray holding if she chooses to fight again.0 -
Yes, indisputably looks grim in Scotland.
To try to reply honestly to notme on the last thread, who was finding Tory votes very solid but couldn't tell what was happening on the left - I'm basically finding the Labour vote very solid plus a large chunk of Red Liberals (there weren't many Greens to start with, and still aren't in this marginal, but there were 17% LibDems and they don't have a candidate yet), and can't tell what's happening on the right, though my impression is also that the Tories are solid too.
There are a few Con<->Lab switchers but they are very rare both ways. UKIP is a minor nuisance for us and I suspect the same for the Tories - the constituency is mostly prosperous with well-integrated Nottingham next door, so you don't get immigration as a big issue. I'm not encountering much reluctance to vote and maybe half the voters are actually quite excited by the marginal and personal "duel" factors (both Lab/Lib and Con) - loads of requests for PVs from voters who might be away and don't want to miss it. I expect high turnout and a gain, unless the national scene changes sharply.
On that, Populus today should show another Tory lead; I'd think we need to wait for Monday to see if the Budget bounce wears off, as I suspect it will.0 -
Ed Balls refuses to state he will lengthen days but says Labour will fit a dimmer switch to the sun to avoid sudden darkness.Moses_ said:Alanbrooke said:
Smarmy's slipping up ( must have started the whiskey early )RobD said:
Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pickAlanbrooke said:
It's not an eclipse.RobD said:Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?
I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.
Coincidence ?
I think not.
Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)
The BBC reports that the Tory led "savage cuts" result in an 85% reduction of available sunlight.from the same time last year. Ed MIlliband states that families are worse of by 1600 seconds of sunlight as a result0 -
He's talking about UK seats as a whole.scotslass said:[quote] in fact it is now being joked that the SNP could be ahead of all parties nationally during the early part of the night. [quote]
Sorry am I missing something. Why is this rather interesting point you make a "joke"?
If the SNP wins the first 50 seats declared in the UK (all in Scotland obviously) then they will be 50-0 ahead of every other party in UK. But it doesn't mean they will win a majority in the HoC.0 -
I think they are talking about vote totals, rather than seat totals. Although it applies both ways I suppose.Charles said:
He's talking about UK seats as a whole.scotslass said:[quote] in fact it is now being joked that the SNP could be ahead of all parties nationally during the early part of the night. [quote]
Sorry am I missing something. Why is this rather interesting point you make a "joke"?
If the SNP wins the first 50 seats declared in the UK (all in Scotland obviously) then they will be 50-0 ahead of every other party in UK. But it doesn't mean they will win a majority in the HoC.0 -
Who cares if she is down to earth. She is an unreconstructed loopy leftie. She would go down well in the European Union.Casino_Royale said:
Anyone who spends virtually all their free time in politics from the age of 16 onwards is going to have a challenge with a sense of humour.DavidL said:
SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.Danny565 said:
On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.DavidL said:
Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.
Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.
What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.
I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.0 -
And if that doesn't work, free Orbs of White Light for all???Alanbrooke said:
Ed Balls refuses to state he will lengthen days but says Labour will fit a dimmer switch to the sun to avoid sudden darkness.Moses_ said:Alanbrooke said:
Smarmy's slipping up ( must have started the whiskey early )RobD said:
Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pickAlanbrooke said:
It's not an eclipse.RobD said:Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?
I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.
Coincidence ?
I think not.
Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)
The BBC reports that the Tory led "savage cuts" result in an 85% reduction of available sunlight.from the same time last year. Ed MIlliband states that families are worse of by 1600 seconds of sunlight as a result0 -
@Flightpath
For the most part, the "loony Left" has been reconstructed.
Now the difficult part is sorting out the "raving Right"0 -
A coastline for a start and if the DNA is to be believed there is no distinct celtic heritage ton separate us. I cannot believe its not the vikings that make Boycott so different from Statham. Maybe its the water.DavidL said:
It was the latter I was not aware of and seemed to be the basis of your original comment that there would be regional differences. Despite the SNP wave at the moment I still think Brits have far, far more in common than they do to differentiate them.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
Link to the study of relative wealth, or different social attitudes to it?
The former was reported widely this past week, the latter has not been done.0 -
The BBC have it as HS3 on their map. Sounds a bit like the UKIP plan in their 2010 manifesto, but they've done an about turn on high-speed rail now.JosiasJessop said:At least they're not calling it HS3/4/5 etc:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-319786310 -
Yes, exactly. I think that Nige's been in Brussels too long.DavidBrackenbury said:
Tonne? Or Ton?logical_song said:Farage will come down on UKIP miscreant like a metric ton (tonne) of bricks.
"We've got to behave absolutely properly and if we see anything we think is wrong, we will come down on it like a tonne of bricks."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-31976343
Since a metric tonne is about 10% bigger than an English ton it looks like UKIP is going to REALLY flatten Janice Atkinsion.0 -
In my experience, door to door canvassing is excellent as a means of identifying one's own voters, but quite useless as a means of gauging opposition support.NickPalmer said:Yes, indisputably looks grim in Scotland.
To try to reply honestly to notme on the last thread, who was finding Tory votes very solid but couldn't tell what was happening on the left - I'm basically finding the Labour vote very solid plus a large chunk of Red Liberals (there weren't many Greens to start with, and still aren't in this marginal, but there were 17% LibDems and they don't have a candidate yet), and can't tell what's happening on the right, though my impression is also that the Tories are solid too.
There are a few Con<->Lab switchers but they are very rare both ways. UKIP is a minor nuisance for us and I suspect the same for the Tories - the constituency is mostly prosperous with well-integrated Nottingham next door, so you don't get immigration as a big issue. I'm not encountering much reluctance to vote and maybe half the voters are actually quite excited by the marginal and personal "duel" factors (both Lab/Lib and Con) - loads of requests for PVs from voters who might be away and don't want to miss it. I expect high turnout and a gain, unless the national scene changes sharply.
On that, Populus today should show another Tory lead; I'd think we need to wait for Monday to see if the Budget bounce wears off, as I suspect it will.
If you have years of canvass data, you can tell if your support is rising or falling, but you can't tell if one set of opposition supporters is switching behind anothe opposition candidate.
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So, I was correct, the other day, in pointing out that LibDems have still not selected in Broxtowe. Several PBers pointed me to a database list of all the PPCs in UK which had a selection marked in it.NickPalmer said:Yes, indisputably looks grim in Scotland.
To try to reply honestly to notme on the last thread, who was finding Tory votes very solid but couldn't tell what was happening on the left - I'm basically finding the Labour vote very solid plus a large chunk of Red Liberals (there weren't many Greens to start with, and still aren't in this marginal, but there were 17% LibDems and they don't have a candidate yet), and can't tell what's happening on the right, though my impression is also that the Tories are solid too.
There are a few Con<->Lab switchers but they are very rare both ways. UKIP is a minor nuisance for us and I suspect the same for the Tories - the constituency is mostly prosperous with well-integrated Nottingham next door, so you don't get immigration as a big issue. I'm not encountering much reluctance to vote and maybe half the voters are actually quite excited by the marginal and personal "duel" factors (both Lab/Lib and Con) - loads of requests for PVs from voters who might be away and don't want to miss it. I expect high turnout and a gain, unless the national scene changes sharply.
On that, Populus today should show another Tory lead; I'd think we need to wait for Monday to see if the Budget bounce wears off, as I suspect it will.
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So who gets to deliver a budget speech today then? I'd like to hear a double act by Lucas and Galloway - let's see what they've got to offer.
In all honesty, Danny delivered the biggest wtf moment of this parliament yesterday, stood there with his yellow box. He'll be packing a few more bags soon.0 -
Mr. Rentool, quite. It was bizarre, and should not have been permitted.0
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Looking pretty grim for Labour in Scotland
Wonder when the Welsh will cotton on that Labour have been crap for them too.
Can I just whisper that those figures are beyond dire for the Lib Dems.
Looks like its going to be one hell of an election, will we end up with a stable government?0 -
I think a number of remaining Lib Dems could drift away from the party now - after Charlie's Question Time performance and Nick Clegg walking out on Danny's lunch box budget... these aren't media/partisan attacks the likes of which UKIP & Miliband are facing - this is class A1 self created implosion.SandyRentool said:So who gets to deliver a budget speech today then? I'd like to hear a double act by Lucas and Galloway - let's see what they've got to offer.
In all honesty, Danny delivered the biggest wtf moment of this parliament yesterday, stood there with his yellow box. He'll be packing a few more bags soon.0 -
The SNP = The Visigoths
Ed Miliband = Emperor Honorius0 -
Frankie Boyle @frankieboyle 52m52 minutes ago
Nigel Farage has a German wife – surely the ultimate proof that the British just get immigrants to do the jobs no one here can face doing.
1,469 retweets 1,405 favorites0 -
Mr. Eagles, are you saying Jim Murphy is a chicken called Rome?0
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If you don't want to be a laughing stock don't turn up with a yellow box and pretend you didn't nod and cheer all the way through the actual budget you put together with the Tories.foxinsoxuk said:
The whole point of the Yellow budget was to get attention. It managed it!DavidL said:
That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.Casino_Royale said:The Liberal Democrats are getting farcical. He looks like a bad street magician:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3003148/Don-t-day-job-Nick-dram-fan-Clegg-hams-filming-Lib-Dem-election-broadcast.html
I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.
Danny 2 budgets is toast in 42 days.
Good riddance0 -
It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.0 -
Yes.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, are you saying Jim Murphy is a chicken called Rome?
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Looking at the subsamples, the Tories lead Labour among AB in Scotland and are the main challenger to the SNP in Southern Scotland.
Not far off Labour in the NE, plus Highlands and Islands.
SNP 17 points ahead in Glasgow.0 -
To all our Scottish Conservatives - do any of you know a single Scot Con person who will be lending Labour/Lib Dem a vote on the night ?0
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Stephen Fisher's latest weekly updated projection this morning as regards GE 2015 seats is once again based on VI polling figures of 33% for both the Tories and Labour, with the LibDems remaining on 8%. This has the Tories winning 284 seats (-1 on last week), Labour on 278 (-1 on last week) and the LibDems on just 21 seats (also -1 on last week and a new all time low for them).
Elsewhere the SNP are shown as winning 41 seats, UKIP and Plaid winning 3 seats apiece, with the Greens retaining their one seat.
A hung Parliament is shown as being an 87% probability.0 -
I don't know why people are getting excited by a partial eclipse.
Bonnie Tyler never sang about "Partial Eclipse of the heart"0 -
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.OblitusSumMe said:It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
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Is he called Jim or Rome I am easily confused.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, are you saying Jim Murphy is a chicken called Rome?
What has Rome ever done for us apart from the NHS. the minimum wage and saving the Union?
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With all the discussion around Labour's problems in Scotland, we should spare a thought for the LDs.
In 2010 they got 465,000 votes in Scotland: 186,000 of them across the 11 seats they hold.
They are consistently now polling at only 4%, which means only 99,000 votes over the whole of Scotland.
In 2010 in the 48 seats they did NOT win, they averaged 5,825 votes. Even if this time round they lose 85% of those votes (surely not even the LDs can do worse than that!), that still leaves only 57,000 votes to spread among the 11 seats they hold, or an average of 5,170.
Unless they have completely abandoned most of the seats they hold, it looks almost impossible for them to retain more than one or two, if any.0 -
Prof Fisher EICIPMpeter_from_putney said:Stephen Fisher's latest weekly updated projection this morning as regards GE 2015 seats is once again based on VI polling figures of 33% for both the Tories and Labour, with the LibDems remaining on 8%. This has the Tories winning 284 seats (-1 on last week), Labour on 278 (-1 on last week) and the LibDems on just 21 seats (also -1 on last week and a new all time low for them).
Elsewhere the SNP are shown as winning 41 seats, UKIP and Plaid winning 3 seats apiece, with the Greens retaining their one seat.
A hung Parliament is shown as being an 87% probability.0 -
There must be a point even under FPTP where tactical voting is worthless. Where a party is pushing 50% across a region for example.Pulpstar said:To all our Scottish Conservatives - do any of you know a single Scot Con person who will be lending Labour/Lib Dem a vote on the night ?
I suggest Scotland is beyond that point.0 -
Mr. Owls, the Emperor Honorius was distressed to learn Rome had fallen. When it transpired the frantic messenger meant the city, not his favourite chicken, he was greatly relieved.
[At this point the emperors lived in the more defensible city of Ravenna].0 -
Why should tories support a yellow budget? If this is a mistake by the LDs then they have reaped what they have sown.foxinsoxuk said:
The whole point of the Yellow budget was to get attention. It managed it!DavidL said:
That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.Casino_Royale said:The Liberal Democrats are getting farcical. He looks like a bad street magician:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3003148/Don-t-day-job-Nick-dram-fan-Clegg-hams-filming-Lib-Dem-election-broadcast.html
I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.0 -
Overcast here, alas.0
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Fisher saw Con lead down before the budget - old news then.0
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Can someone call God and ask him if he could put another quid in the 'leccy meter?
Ta.0 -
An anecdote which touches on NickP's point and Sean_F's reply.
I went to see the folks in Manchester last weekend. They are WWC pensioners and live on a council estate in Lucy Powell's seat. I asked them who they would vote for and they said "Conservative". If anyone is interested, the reasons they gave were (1) Tory economic plan working (2) "Labour are rubbish" (3) Immigration - they felt neither party could do anything but Labour had "let them all in" and (4) the international situation - they saw the world as getting more dangerous and did not trust Labour to protect the country.
I then asked them what they would tell a canvasser or a pollster; they chucked and said "we would tell them we will be voting Labour".
I suspect that they are not the only traditional WWC Labour voters who say one thing to a pollster and then do something else.
On UKIP, they were not keen on Farage but think it will pick up many people in the area. They also said that, if people thought Labour could be beaten, that more would get out and vote UKIP.
Separately, I saw a old schoolfriend who lives in Manchester Withington - NHS consultant, always voted Labour. She is very disillusioned about Ed and is voting Green. She was also the fourth or fifth person in a row who works in the NHS and is sick of the political interference - nothing about Tory cuts, Hunt is a ...etc, just that and that PFI causes the hospitals a load of gried (they cannot change lightbulbs without calling in the contractors apparently, which means an inflated bill).0 -
No.logical_song said:
I know Farage admires Putin. Do you think that we, the UK and Europe, are too hard on Russia over Ukraine?Paul_Mid_Beds said:FPT
And in reality the risk of the Bomb is far more than it was in the 50s and 60's with sundry nutters liable to get hold of it and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks.EPG said:
We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.NickPalmer said:
I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.SquareRoot said:Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.
Mind you, I could think of a few places that could do with being nuked thanks to the efforts of governments and town planners in the 50s and 60's
Are we being too hard on Putin executing his closest opposition rival?0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsgWUq0fdKkTheScreamingEagles said:I don't know why people are getting excited by a partial eclipse.
Bonnie Tyler never sang about "Partial Eclipse of the heart"
:-)0 -
Mr. Cabinet, welcome to pb.com.0
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Ditto S'th Wilts - having difficulty spotting where the sun should be, let alone seeing an eclipse.Morris_Dancer said:Overcast here, alas.
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Thank you Morris0
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Which is why I recommended last year that Labour needed to shift a massive amount of people and money from England to save SLAB. Instead Labour have spread themselves too thin and chased marginal seats in England which will never be the heartlands that they are giving up on in Scotland. Also Labour's membership levels in its formerly safe SLAB seats are pitifully low and do not provide the base for a quick recovery once defeated. It has the signs of being the scale of defeat that could last for a generation.NickPalmer said:Yes, indisputably looks grim in Scotland.
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A gap in the clouds just at the right time in Newcastle. The sunlit uplands aren't far away!0
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Did Clegg really walk out of the Lib Dem's pantomime - errr alternative budget?Casino_Royale said:The Liberal Democrats are getting farcical. He looks like a bad street magician:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3003148/Don-t-day-job-Nick-dram-fan-Clegg-hams-filming-Lib-Dem-election-broadcast.html
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Got some good photos of the eclipse. Camera adjusted to 1/1250 - 1/4000 (Midpoint 1/2000) which shows just how bright the sun is still !
Gap in the clouds was at just the right point !0 -
Mr. Floater, oh no, he didn't!0
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For the nth time, student fees are applied on a residence qualification - not nationality or place of birth (as indeed England, Wales and NI did and in a sense still do). It diminishes your views to keep claiming the reverse.Patrick said:
You're dead right and it's going to be horrible. Westminster craven machine politicians will pander to the Scots and English voters will get very het up about it. I think the best solution would be for a brave PM to say: 'Everyone in the UK must be treated equally. We'll harmonise public spending per capita across the UK and make it illegal for some UK citizens (English) to be discriminated against anywhere in the UK (Scottish universities?). We will end Barnett. What Scotland gets, England gets.'Alanbrooke said:
There's the minor issue of how Scotland will pay its bills, you think politics will triumph over cash. I'm less convinced.Patrick said:
Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.felix said:Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but....
I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.
Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!
A 'no more mollycoddling' message would effectively force Scotland to stay on equal terms or to go - but either way to shut the fuck up. Sure, an exit would be an unmitigated financial catastrophe for Scotland and render them poorer and more diminshed than Quebec has become in Canada. But the rest of the UK should not play the SNP game. Their position is ridiculous and unsustainable. It diminishes any UK politician who dances to their tune.
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Just checked, best shot is 1/40000
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Mr. Carnyx, and yet the French don't pay fees in Scotland.0
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Tory confirmation bias alert.TheKitchenCabinet said:An anecdote which touches on NickP's point and Sean_F's reply.
I went to see the folks in Manchester last weekend. They are WWC pensioners and live on a council estate in Lucy Powell's seat. I asked them who they would vote for and they said "Conservative". If anyone is interested, the reasons they gave were (1) Tory economic plan working (2) "Labour are rubbish" (3) Immigration - they felt neither party could do anything but Labour had "let them all in" and (4) the international situation - they saw the world as getting more dangerous and did not trust Labour to protect the country.
I then asked them what they would tell a canvasser or a pollster; they chucked and said "we would tell them we will be voting Labour".
I suspect that they are not the only traditional WWC Labour voters who say one thing to a pollster and then do something else.
On UKIP, they were not keen on Farage but think it will pick up many people in the area. They also said that, if people thought Labour could be beaten, that more would get out and vote UKIP.
Separately, I saw a old schoolfriend who lives in Manchester Withington - NHS consultant, always voted Labour. She is very disillusioned about Ed and is voting Green. She was also the fourth or fifth person in a row who works in the NHS and is sick of the political interference - nothing about Tory cuts, Hunt is a ...etc, just that and that PFI causes the hospitals a load of gried (they cannot change lightbulbs without calling in the contractors apparently, which means an inflated bill).0 -
I was hoping that Paul_mid_Beds would reply, since he posted:Flightpath said:
No.logical_song said:
I know Farage admires Putin. Do you think that we, the UK and Europe, are too hard on Russia over Ukraine?Paul_Mid_Beds said:FPT
And in reality the risk of the Bomb is far more than it was in the 50s and 60's with sundry nutters liable to get hold of it and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks.EPG said:
We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.NickPalmer said:
I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.SquareRoot said:Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.
Mind you, I could think of a few places that could do with being nuked thanks to the efforts of governments and town planners in the 50s and 60's
Are we being too hard on Putin executing his closest opposition rival?
".. and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks".
I know that Farage admires Putin and was wondering what UKIPs policy towards him and Russia was.0 -
At the start of the Coalition they planned on giving those accused of sexual offences the anonymity afforded to accusers [until conviction, I think]. The suggestion, albeit to charging, has been raised by a Select Committee:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-319700340 -
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lord-wolfson-next-living-wage-5367964
Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff0 -
There are some great photos of what he did instead in the daily mail.Floater said:
Did Clegg really walk out of the Lib Dem's pantomime - errr alternative budget?Casino_Royale said:The Liberal Democrats are getting farcical. He looks like a bad street magician:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3003148/Don-t-day-job-Nick-dram-fan-Clegg-hams-filming-Lib-Dem-election-broadcast.html
I know stills from a video are unfair, but still
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Mr. Owls, don't many Labour MPs have interns paid nothing?
Also: that's the point of minimum wage. You could have easily written: "Successful businessman obeys employment law."0 -
@MichaelLCrick: It seems Farage was bundled away from LBC without facing our cameras. Not like him. He must be terrified.0
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ignore - messed up the hierarchy
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Et Voila !0
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The position is slightly confusing - everyone in local politics knows who they are going to pick, a nice chap who I've known for 20 years. But he has good personal reasons not to want to make it public before the 30th. (The webaite leaked it but has been hastily told to un-leak it.) Broxtowe politics is pretty friendly for the most part, so we're all respecting his wishes and letting him announce it when he wants to rather than spoil his moment. Objectively, though, it means that the LibDems don't have a public face in the campaign at the moment.rottenborough said:
So, I was correct, the other day, in pointing out that LibDems have still not selected in Broxtowe. Several PBers pointed me to a database list of all the PPCs in UK which had a selection marked in it.
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Quite. Look how well alliance with the Tories worked out for the LDs (in the Coalition) and Labour (in indyref). And what strikes me abut the polling is the lack of any clear revival above the 1 in 6 hardcore minority of Tories. Which does surprise me.Theuniondivvie said:
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.OblitusSumMe said:It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
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Good set of borrowing figures. Deficit now £9bn lower year to date against 2013/2014.0
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This week the LDs finally got round to selecting their PPC for Corby and East Northants. Why bother? I have said this before, but it is ridiculous that major parties are still selecting their Parliamentary Candidates so soon before a General Election. I appreciate that many parties have no real prospect of winning in the seat, but it frankly it shows very little respect for the electorate, or the hapless PPC!
Surely with the fixed Parliament all the major Parties have long had the Election in their diaries and should have completed their selections by now!0 -
Ah well, that was interesting.
I am now looking forward to the next one on 12 August 2026, although I suspect that I will miss the one after that, which will occur on the 23 September 2090.0 -
Eclipse: just a reminder that for those of you disappointed with it, a short eclipse-themed story, by me, will be posted late this evening at kraxon.com
[I probably won't be on the computer then, or I would've just mentioned it as and when it's up].
Edited extra bit: nice photo, Mr. Pulpstar.0 -
You mean "entrepreneur who has built FTSE company, employing tens of thousands of people, from a tired and failing mail order catalogue business has a view on labour costs"?bigjohnowls said:http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lord-wolfson-next-living-wage-5367964
Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff0 -
But Scots residents pay fees in England; and the UK Gmt deducted the money anyway from the Scottish budget, so nobody can complain.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Carnyx, and yet the French don't pay fees in Scotland.
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Meanwhile ....
Disturbing reports are reaching me via the JNN that certain PBers of a lefty and kipper disposition are in a state of utter shock after they attempted to stare boldly at my ARSE during its partial eclipse over the past half hour.
Against advice these ARSE deniers tossed away their rose tinted spectacles in a vain attempt to see directly the inner workings of this, the brightest wonder in the skies of electoral forecasting.0 -
@Richard_Nabavi Saw this and thought deja vu and you
The Rural Payments Agency has frozen part of its new "digital" £154m Common Agricultural Payments IT system to provide EU subsidies to farmers and told them to go back to pen and paper.
theregister.co.uk/2015/03/20/rural_payments_agency_cans_154m_it_system_gds/?mt=14268450715840 -
View was great from SheffieldSmarmeron said:@Morris_Dancer
What eclipse?
It is so grey up here, no one has noticed. 0 -
I mean Tory peer thinks £6.70 an hour is enough to live on thats why I typed Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff.Charles said:
You mean "entrepreneur who has built FTSE company, employing tens of thousands of people, from a tired and failing mail order catalogue business has a view on labour costs"?bigjohnowls said:http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/lord-wolfson-next-living-wage-5367964
Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff
Simple really type what you think like you did?
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This morning reminds me that pollsters and pundits can be grateful we live in more forgiving times. Two astronomers, Hsi and Ho, were executed for failing to predict an eclipse in 2137 BC.0
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OGH does himself a disservice by making inaccurate statements. Stephen Fisher is not showing the CON lead down to 6 seats. He is showing that CON is maintaining a 6 seat lead.
Just witnessed an almost total eclipse out over the Moray Firth from my conservatory. Absolutely amazing sight.0 -
You smug git.Pulpstar said:
View was great from SheffieldSmarmeron said:@Morris_Dancer
What eclipse?
It is so grey up here, no one has noticed.0
