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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than seven weeks to go and the Labour Scottish nightma
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than seven weeks to go and the Labour Scottish nightmare ontinues
As has been stated many times the party holds 41 of the 59 Scottish seats and the signs are that it could only be left with a bare handful on the morning of May 8th.
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On election night, I predict very few Champagne bottles will be rolling around the studio floor at BBC Scotland. - I also predict that Sunderland South, will not be the 1st constituency to declare at the GE2015.
SNP 20%
SLab 42%
SLD 19%
SCon 17%
So it looks as if the SLDs will be losing 80% of their votes compared to SLab about 30%. The new SNP voters seem to come equally from both parties.
It looks like the betting still has some value betting against the LDs.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3003148/Don-t-day-job-Nick-dram-fan-Clegg-hams-filming-Lib-Dem-election-broadcast.html
"We've got to behave absolutely properly and if we see anything we think is wrong, we will come down on it like a tonne of bricks."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-31976343
"Ukip candidate resigns: Jonathan Stanley leaves party citing 'open racism and bullying'"
http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/11868250.Ukip_candidate_resigns__Jonathan_Stanley_leaves_party__citing__open_racism_and_bullying_/
I don't want to sound like a broken clock but the consequences for the efficiency of the Labour vote overall are dramatic. In 2010 42% of the Scottish vote got Labour 70% of the Scottish seats producing 16% of all Labour seats. In 2015 28% of the vote might get them 8 seats (maybe even less) or 13% of the Scottish seats.
Even more disappointing for Labour is that a national fall of only 1.12% in their vote focussed in Scotland is going to cost them something like 33 seats. It is a catastrophe for them which will require a lot of English gains to get back to zero.
(Cue Private Frazer video)
As I've said before, I don't think it's going to be as bad for them as the polls currently show: enough people will harken back to their traditional voting patterns on the day. But it's going to be bad.
It's enough to make me feel sorry for Murphy. The mess isn't his doing, but he's the one who'll be down as leader in the history books when it occurred.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31978631
We also lost the UKIP candidate where I live :
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-6543949
Mind you, I could think of a few places that could do with being nuked thanks to the efforts of governments and town planners in the 50s and 60's
I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
I am not sure about "too hard on Putin", but the West certainly miscalculated how much Russia wants a warm water port.
I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.
Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!
Falkirk has very little resonance, but the present polling for the SNP has.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31973051
Apparently my political views are centrist and typical on these measures. (12/25)
I see no reason to expect any swingback to Labour from here at all. It might happen, but it isn't baked in.
It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.
The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.
Sigh.
You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.
I reckon 15% when all is said and done for the Scot Cons and 2 seats. That'd be my par prediction now.
Murphy losing his seat is a big enough dream that the Greens aren't standing in his seat against the Nats.
Politics is a tough old game.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/nhs/11482515/Welshman-charged-for-treatment-in-English-hospital-as-he-was-classed-as-foreigner.html
Mike - can I ask if you put a list of polls like you have in the main thread you include the 2010 figures as a baseline? Not all of us are complete obsessives
A 'no more mollycoddling' message would effectively force Scotland to stay on equal terms or to go - but either way to shut the fuck up. Sure, an exit would be an unmitigated financial catastrophe for Scotland and render them poorer and more diminshed than Quebec has become in Canada. But the rest of the UK should not play the SNP game. Their position is ridiculous and unsustainable. It diminishes any UK politician who dances to their tune.
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.
Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.
Notice that Gov approval up to -12 - the best for a long time, but it has improved markedly this month by ~2.5 points.
On the T Phillips programme last night, notice how T Blair was still in denial about doing anything wrong during his premiership - his successful pursuit of money must have warped his mind.
If I were Jim Murphy, I'd be aiming for 12 to 15, I think. The next still harder question is: which 15?
What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.
I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
You appear to have missed the factors of geography, and "rationalization" of hospital services.
If you need specialized treatment, Liverpool is closer and easier to get to for large parts of Wales, than Cardiff.
Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
East Renfrewshire is a given.
I was amused to see Sturgeon bitching about being picked on because of her appearance [suggesting it was only because she was a woman].
Has she been asleep for the whole of Miliband's leadership?
Edited extra bit: there is a case to say politics should be less superficial [a rather attractive one], but the notion that any unkind comments were just because she's a woman is ridiculous.
Remember when people said Clegg looked like he'd been crying after the European Election results?
Link to the study of relative wealth, or different social attitudes to it?
The former was reported widely this past week, the latter has not been done.
Murphy & Glasgow NE
Kirkcaldy, Coatsbridge, P&RS, P&RN, H&RG, Glasgow Central, SW, NW, Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh South, North & Leith (Not SW - no continuing incumbency) and a couple of others
http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/03/13/inattention-to-the-deficit-syndrome-how-northern-ireland-spends-more-than-it-earns/
while the first graph in this article shows why "peak oil" is something of a chimera created by the finance sector
http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/03/01/shale-of-the-century-the-future-for-fracking-in-ireland/
I have mine, and a bottle of Bowmore at the ready.
Like a true Scot, I refuse to pass bye a drinking opportunity after sunset.
Like the old Scottish armies.....the odds mean nothing, the attempt must be made!
Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.
I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.
Coincidence ?
I think not.
Bravado or bluster?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11483968/Nick-Clegg-We-can-wipe-smile-off-Alex-Salmonds-face.html
We are talking about averages.
Does the original research annoy you moderately, or massively on a one to ten scale?
(anyone else can join in if they wish, I have a dog needing walked)
The prospect of Ed Miliband dancing to Salmonds tune is not something that will go down well in England.
I like Sturgeon. It's obvious why the tories are casting Salmond rather than her as the face of the SNP.
Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)
People were horrified that last week on BBCQT he was allowed to go on when he was clearly pissed. The consensus was that he is in trouble and will struggle to hold on, something I would never have contemplated.
I know hardly anyone who thinks John Thurso will hold our seat but the SNP campaign doesn't appear to have started yet and we have now had 5 communications from John Thurso.
The tide seems to be turning against Danny Alexander's survival prospects. Some of my Liberal friends are starting to sound quite pessimistic. I still think he could sneak back in like Russell Johnston did in 1992 on an almost evenly split vote.