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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than seven weeks to go and the Labour Scottish nightma

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than seven weeks to go and the Labour Scottish nightmare ontinues

As has been stated many times the party holds 41 of the 59 Scottish seats and the signs are that it could only be left with a bare handful on the morning of May 8th.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good morning. :smile:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    JackW said:

    Good morning. :smile:

    Seconded!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    I wonder if the BBC computer will break down if the SNP are on 50% of the UK-wide vote after a few early results!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    I wonder if the BBC computer will break down if the SNP are on 50% of the UK-wide vote after a few early results!

    Bring back the wooden swingometer or more importantly put my ARSE on display for the nation on election night..

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    It will certainly give them something to talk about. Would also mean that there would be a nationwide swing from Labour to the Tories after the first fifty-odd seats if most of them are Scottish. That would cause some confusion if they weren't separated out.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    It will not just be Labour crying in their beer. The LDs may well put in their worst ever Scottish performance, in what used to be a heartland.



  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    I wonder if the BBC computer will break down if the SNP are on 50% of the UK-wide vote after a few early results!

    Bring back the wooden swingometer or more importantly put my ARSE on display for the nation on election night..

    I'm sure there is some comment about Dimbleby expertly probing your ARSE.....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2015
    Morning all

    On election night, I predict very few Champagne bottles will be rolling around the studio floor at BBC Scotland. - I also predict that Sunderland South, will not be the 1st constituency to declare at the GE2015.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited March 2015
    Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but.... :)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited March 2015
    2010 was:

    SNP 20%
    SLab 42%
    SLD 19%
    SCon 17%

    So it looks as if the SLDs will be losing 80% of their votes compared to SLab about 30%. The new SNP voters seem to come equally from both parties.

    It looks like the betting still has some value betting against the LDs.



  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Farage will come down on UKIP miscreant like a metric ton (tonne) of bricks.
    "We've got to behave absolutely properly and if we see anything we think is wrong, we will come down on it like a tonne of bricks."
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-31976343
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    JackW said:

    RobD said:

    I wonder if the BBC computer will break down if the SNP are on 50% of the UK-wide vote after a few early results!

    Bring back the wooden swingometer or more importantly put my ARSE on display for the nation on election night..

    I'm sure there is some comment about Dimbleby expertly probing your ARSE.....
    Many have hoped to but none has succeeded .... so far.

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    The surgeon who was to be Tim Farron's UKIP opponent has resigned...

    "Ukip candidate resigns: Jonathan Stanley leaves party citing 'open racism and bullying'"

    http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/11868250.Ukip_candidate_resigns__Jonathan_Stanley_leaves_party__citing__open_racism_and_bullying_/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    I see the Sporting Index on the site has SNP at a buy at 43. Looking at that polling this surely has to be the bottom end of expectations.

    I don't want to sound like a broken clock but the consequences for the efficiency of the Labour vote overall are dramatic. In 2010 42% of the Scottish vote got Labour 70% of the Scottish seats producing 16% of all Labour seats. In 2015 28% of the vote might get them 8 seats (maybe even less) or 13% of the Scottish seats.

    Even more disappointing for Labour is that a national fall of only 1.12% in their vote focussed in Scotland is going to cost them something like 33 seats. It is a catastrophe for them which will require a lot of English gains to get back to zero.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    Scottish Labour is doomed, doomed I tell ya!

    (Cue Private Frazer video)

    As I've said before, I don't think it's going to be as bad for them as the polls currently show: enough people will harken back to their traditional voting patterns on the day. But it's going to be bad.

    It's enough to make me feel sorry for Murphy. The mess isn't his doing, but he's the one who'll be down as leader in the history books when it occurred.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    At least they're not calling it HS3/4/5 etc:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31978631
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Gadfly said:

    The surgeon who was to be Tim Farron's UKIP opponent has resigned...

    "Ukip candidate resigns: Jonathan Stanley leaves party citing 'open racism and bullying'"

    http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/11868250.Ukip_candidate_resigns__Jonathan_Stanley_leaves_party__citing__open_racism_and_bullying_/

    Just seen that the suspended UKIP woman is the same one that used the phrase 'Ting Tong' to describe on of her supporters. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-29039503
    We also lost the UKIP candidate where I live :
    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-6543949
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited March 2015
    FPT
    EPG said:

    Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

    I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.
    We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.
    And in reality the risk of the Bomb is far more than it was in the 50s and 60's with sundry nutters liable to get hold of it and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks.

    Mind you, I could think of a few places that could do with being nuked thanks to the efforts of governments and town planners in the 50s and 60's
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    FPT

    EPG said:

    Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

    I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.
    We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.
    And in reality the risk of the Bomb is far more than it was in the 50s and 60's with sundry nutters liable to get hold of it and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks.

    In the end thanks to
    It's Uncle Vova, apparently.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.

    I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    FPT

    EPG said:

    Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

    I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.
    We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.
    And in reality the risk of the Bomb is far more than it was in the 50s and 60's with sundry nutters liable to get hold of it and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks.

    Mind you, I could think of a few places that could do with being nuked thanks to the efforts of governments and town planners in the 50s and 60's
    I know Farage admires Putin. Do you think that we, the UK and Europe, are too hard on Russia over Ukraine?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Gadfly said:

    The surgeon who was to be Tim Farron's UKIP opponent has resigned...

    "Ukip candidate resigns: Jonathan Stanley leaves party citing 'open racism and bullying'"

    http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/11868250.Ukip_candidate_resigns__Jonathan_Stanley_leaves_party__citing__open_racism_and_bullying_/

    Just seen that the suspended UKIP woman is the same one that used the phrase 'Ting Tong' to describe on of her supporters. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-29039503
    We also lost the UKIP candidate where I live :
    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-6543949
    Not exactly "Mr Smith goes to Washington" is it?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    dram-fan was Kennedy, surely?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @logical_song
    I am not sure about "too hard on Putin", but the West certainly miscalculated how much Russia wants a warm water port.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Where have all the posters gone who kept telling us there was "nothing to see in Scottish Labour" and "Falkirk was of no consequence"?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Where have all the posters gone who kept telling us there was "nothing to see in Scottish Labour" and "Falkirk was of no consequence"?

    To the SNP ?
  • felix said:

    Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but.... :)

    Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.

    I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.

    Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @CarlottaVance
    Falkirk has very little resonance, but the present polling for the SNP has.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited March 2015
    Patrick said:

    felix said:

    Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but.... :)

    Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.

    I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.

    Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!
    There's the minor issue of how Scotland will pay its bills, you think politics will triumph over cash. I'm less convinced.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,195
    It will be an interesting start to the night with the Kippers coming second in the two Mackem seats followed by a spate of SNP gains. But we'll still be able to describe it as 'a bad night for the Conservatives'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015
    Small "p" political quiz

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31973051

    Apparently my political views are centrist and typical on these measures. (12/25)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Smarmeron said:

    @CarlottaVance
    Falkirk has very little resonance, but the present polling for the SNP has.

    Mind you, Karie Murphy has quite the CV now.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic, Scots seem far more settled in their voting intentions than the English. The main outstanding question is how accurately the polls are assessing this.

    I see no reason to expect any swingback to Labour from here at all. It might happen, but it isn't baked in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015
    Enormous response to the Daily Yougov btw -2293 !
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.

    I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
    The whole point of the Yellow budget was to get attention. It managed it!

    It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morning all and personally I am hoping to see Margaret Curran, Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander all lose their seats on 7th May. For me personally the interest is in seeing if the Scottish Tory vote can push back towards 20%.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

    The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

    Sigh.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    There's a very funny story (which I can't link to right now) showing the Belgian Foreign Minister dressed up as a Black and White minstrel.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @antifrank
    You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
    If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited March 2015

    Morning all and personally I am hoping to see Margaret Curran, Jim Murphy and Douglas Alexander all lose their seats on 7th May. For me personally the interest is in seeing if the Scottish Tory vote can push back towards 20%.

    I don't think it'll push towards 20%, but it may not need to - it is indicated as going away in the Lab/SNP battles - but sticking around particularly in the borders. Three Scottish Tories at the HoC is not an otherworldly prediction.

    I reckon 15% when all is said and done for the Scot Cons and 2 seats. That'd be my par prediction now.

    Murphy losing his seat is a big enough dream that the Greens aren't standing in his seat against the Nats.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Sean_F said:

    There's a very funny story (which I can't link to right now) showing the Belgian Foreign Minister dressed up as a Black and White minstrel.

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31962154
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    DavidL said:

    That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.

    I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
    The whole point of the Yellow budget was to get attention. It managed it!

    It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.
    Every time I think it cannot get worse for the Lib Dems it does. My estimates have edged down from the low 30s to the mid 20s. I used to think that their 3 northernmost seats in Scotland were secure but now I think that they will do well to hold onto 2 of them. Charlie is starting to look vulnerable.

    Politics is a tough old game.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nice to see that a 2 point Tory lead in YouGov is no longer unusual enough to warrant an "interesting poll" teaser from TN-D...

    :lol:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Smarmeron said:

    @CarlottaVance
    Falkirk has very little resonance, but the present polling for the SNP has.

    Another one who thinks if it doesn't affect polls in England it doesn't matter......
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    2010 was:

    SNP 20%
    SLab 42%
    SLD 19%
    SCon 17%

    So it looks as if the SLDs will be losing 80% of their votes compared to SLab about 30%. The new SNP voters seem to come equally from both parties.

    It looks like the betting still has some value betting against the LDs.



    @MikeSmithson

    Mike - can I ask if you put a list of polls like you have in the main thread you include the 2010 figures as a baseline? Not all of us are complete obsessives ;)
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited March 2015

    Patrick said:

    felix said:

    Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but.... :)

    Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.

    I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.

    Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!
    There's the minor issue of how Scotland will pay its bills, you think politics will triumph over cash. I'm less convinced.
    You're dead right and it's going to be horrible. Westminster craven machine politicians will pander to the Scots and English voters will get very het up about it. I think the best solution would be for a brave PM to say: 'Everyone in the UK must be treated equally. We'll harmonise public spending per capita across the UK and make it illegal for some UK citizens (English) to be discriminated against anywhere in the UK (Scottish universities?). We will end Barnett. What Scotland gets, England gets.'

    A 'no more mollycoddling' message would effectively force Scotland to stay on equal terms or to go - but either way to shut the fuck up. Sure, an exit would be an unmitigated financial catastrophe for Scotland and render them poorer and more diminshed than Quebec has become in Canada. But the rest of the UK should not play the SNP game. Their position is ridiculous and unsustainable. It diminishes any UK politician who dances to their tune.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    No harm in the masses voting SNP in May, it's not like they will get another referendum for many years
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Pulpstar said:

    Enormous response to the Daily Yougov btw -2293 !

    Yes some 600 more than recent polling. Is this just an increased response or did YG go out for a larger sample?

    Notice that Gov approval up to -12 - the best for a long time, but it has improved markedly this month by ~2.5 points.

    On the T Phillips programme last night, notice how T Blair was still in denial about doing anything wrong during his premiership - his successful pursuit of money must have warped his mind.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Smarmeron said:

    @antifrank
    You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
    If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.

    Scottish Labour have a hard decision to make now: how many seats do they really try to salvage? If they're too ambitious, they'll end up losing more than they need to, as they did in 2011. But if they are hard-headed, there are going to be some very upset MPs.

    If I were Jim Murphy, I'd be aiming for 12 to 15, I think. The next still harder question is: which 15?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Why on earth did the LibDems expose Danny Alexander to ridicule with his orange "red" box yesterday. The comment I heard most frequently about it was "who gives a damn as they are all going to lose their seats anyway". Entering the short campaign having to constantly deny virtual wipeout will do a lot for the much depleted LibDem ground troops.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    DavidL said:

    The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

    The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

    Sigh.

    It's what happens when voters feel they are completely excluded from the decision-making process. The political establishment in England is fortunate that only UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens are ranged against them. The fact is that we are only a few months into the aftermath of a two year process that ended up electrifying and engaging the vast majority of Scottish voters. It's going to take a long while - and probably at least one more Assembly election - for that to begin to wear off. At some stage, though, it will. Who is left standing at that stage will be fascinating to see.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    There are frequent 'health' problems across Offa's Dyke, as well as people going to England for better and often faster treatment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

    Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

    What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

    I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Time to obligatorily wonder just what on earth people were thinking when they tipped Jim Murphy as the party's saviour.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

    The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

    Sigh.

    It's what happens when voters feel they are completely excluded from the decision-making process. The political establishment in England is fortunate that only UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens are ranged against them. The fact is that we are only a few months into the aftermath of a two year process that ended up electrifying and engaging the vast majority of Scottish voters. It's going to take a long while - and probably at least one more Assembly election - for that to begin to wear off. At some stage, though, it will. Who is left standing at that stage will be fascinating to see.
    You're right. Looking forward to, say, 2025, what does SLAB offer that the SNP doesn't? Both broadly left of centre machine politics. Might we see a Tory surge... ;)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Financier
    You appear to have missed the factors of geography, and "rationalization" of hospital services.
    If you need specialized treatment, Liverpool is closer and easier to get to for large parts of Wales, than Cardiff.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    DavidL said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

    Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

    What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

    I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
    On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.

    Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    DavidL said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

    Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

    What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

    I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.

    But the simple fact is that given the economics Sturgeon cannot do what she wants with Scottish independence, if what she wants to do is to create a Scandinavian-style social democracy. In the end what nationalists want is a nation state. Everything else is secondary. That's why there is nothing left-wing about it.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @antifrank
    You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
    If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.

    Scottish Labour have a hard decision to make now: how many seats do they really try to salvage? If they're too ambitious, they'll end up losing more than they need to, as they did in 2011. But if they are hard-headed, there are going to be some very upset MPs.

    If I were Jim Murphy, I'd be aiming for 12 to 15, I think. The next still harder question is: which 15?
    Which 14.

    East Renfrewshire is a given.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited March 2015
    Och aye tha noo, everyone.

    I was amused to see Sturgeon bitching about being picked on because of her appearance [suggesting it was only because she was a woman].

    Has she been asleep for the whole of Miliband's leadership?

    Edited extra bit: there is a case to say politics should be less superficial [a rather attractive one], but the notion that any unkind comments were just because she's a woman is ridiculous.

    Remember when people said Clegg looked like he'd been crying after the European Election results?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @DavidL
    Link to the study of relative wealth, or different social attitudes to it?
    The former was reported widely this past week, the latter has not been done.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    On topic, Scots seem far more settled in their voting intentions than the English. The main outstanding question is how accurately the polls are assessing this.

    I see no reason to expect any swingback to Labour from here at all. It might happen, but it isn't baked in.

    Deffo still some value in SNP odds.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

    The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

    Sigh.

    It's what happens when voters feel they are completely excluded from the decision-making process. The political establishment in England is fortunate that only UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens are ranged against them. The fact is that we are only a few months into the aftermath of a two year process that ended up electrifying and engaging the vast majority of Scottish voters. It's going to take a long while - and probably at least one more Assembly election - for that to begin to wear off. At some stage, though, it will. Who is left standing at that stage will be fascinating to see.
    You're right. Looking forward to, say, 2025, what does SLAB offer that the SNP doesn't? Both broadly left of centre machine politics. Might we see a Tory surge... ;)

    That is actually a fair point. The SNP has now recognised that it got its oil sums completely and utterly wrong. From that comes the acceptance that an independent Scotland would run a deficit of around 8%, and from that comes the reality of not being able to do anything remotely left wing. There is only one direction that yesterday's recognition takes the SNP. And it may not be very good news for Labour at all.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @antifrank
    You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
    If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.

    Scottish Labour have a hard decision to make now: how many seats do they really try to salvage? If they're too ambitious, they'll end up losing more than they need to, as they did in 2011. But if they are hard-headed, there are going to be some very upset MPs.

    If I were Jim Murphy, I'd be aiming for 12 to 15, I think. The next still harder question is: which 15?
    Wee Dougie's seat will be #1 priority I reckon. Curran wants hers to be too but ...

    Murphy & Glasgow NE

    Kirkcaldy, Coatsbridge, P&RS, P&RN, H&RG, Glasgow Central, SW, NW, Dumfries & Galloway, Edinburgh South, North & Leith (Not SW - no continuing incumbency) and a couple of others
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    edited March 2015
    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

    Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

    What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

    I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
    On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.

    Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
    SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    RobD said:

    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

    A touch, are you in a desert right now ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    felix said:

    Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but.... :)

    Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.

    I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.

    Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!
    There's the minor issue of how Scotland will pay its bills, you think politics will triumph over cash. I'm less convinced.
    You're dead right and it's going to be horrible. Westminster craven machine politicians will pander to the Scots and English voters will get very het up about it. I think the best solution would be for a brave PM to say: 'Everyone in the UK must be treated equally. We'll harmonise public spending per capita across the UK and make it illegal for some UK citizens (English) to be discriminated against anywhere in the UK (Scottish universities?). We will end Barnett. What Scotland gets, England gets.'

    A 'no more mollycoddling' message would effectively force Scotland to stay on equal terms or to go - but either way to shut the fuck up. Sure, an exit would be an unmitigated financial catastrophe for Scotland and render them poorer and more diminshed than Quebec has become in Canada. But the rest of the UK should not play the SNP game. Their position is ridiculous and unsustainable. It diminishes any UK politician who dances to their tune.
    If you want to see why Irish Unity looks a little unlikely read this.


    http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/03/13/inattention-to-the-deficit-syndrome-how-northern-ireland-spends-more-than-it-earns/

    while the first graph in this article shows why "peak oil" is something of a chimera created by the finance sector

    http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/03/01/shale-of-the-century-the-future-for-fracking-in-ireland/
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    One hopes that the possibility of a Tory government will concentrate the Scottish minds enough that by election day,Lab are polling in the low 30`s and SNP in the high 30`s.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

    A touch, are you in a desert right now ?
    Nope, San Fran, although it was sunny yesterday!
  • DavidL said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

    Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

    What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

    I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.

    That's why there is nothing left-wing about it.
    Yup. An independent Scotland could not afford to be a lefty bankruptopia. A socialist administration would see the journey from Yes to Greece was very short.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    I have mine, and a bottle of Bowmore at the ready.
    Like a true Scot, I refuse to pass bye a drinking opportunity after sunset.
    :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Smarmeron said:

    @RobD
    I have mine, and a bottle of Bowmore at the ready.
    Like a true Scot, I refuse to pass bye a drinking opportunity after sunset.
    :)

    There are several minutes of near totality. Can you finish the bottle? ;)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706

    DavidL said:

    That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.

    I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
    The whole point of the Yellow budget was to get attention. It managed it!

    It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.
    That's precisely it.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @RobD
    Like the old Scottish armies.....the odds mean nothing, the attempt must be made!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    Link to the study of relative wealth, or different social attitudes to it?
    The former was reported widely this past week, the latter has not been done.

    It was the latter I was not aware of and seemed to be the basis of your original comment that there would be regional differences. Despite the SNP wave at the moment I still think Brits have far, far more in common than they do to differentiate them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

    Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

    What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

    I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
    On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.

    Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
    SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.
    Anyone who spends virtually all their free time in politics from the age of 16 onwards is going to have a challenge with a sense of humour.

    Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    SMukesh said:

    One hopes that the possibility of a Tory government will concentrate the Scottish minds enough that by election day,Lab are polling in the low 30`s and SNP in the high 30`s.

    Labour is going to get blown away in Scotland. And deservedly so. It took the country for granted for far too long and is now going to pay the price.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    RobD said:

    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

    It's not an eclipse.

    I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.

    Coincidence ?

    I think not.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Smarmeron said:

    @Financier
    You appear to have missed the factors of geography, and "rationalization" of hospital services.
    If you need specialized treatment, Liverpool is closer and easier to get to for large parts of Wales, than Cardiff.

    I am quite aware of that simple fact - but that does not stop all the rows about quality and speed of treatment in Wales being compared with that in England by the people who live near the Welsh border. In general, the Labour Welsh government is mainly interested in what happens in S Wales and the Valleys where mostly its voters live. People in north and mid-Wales continually complain about being neglected by the devolved government.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Interesting, - Nick Clegg will tell the party's Scottish conference that it can confound opinion polls and hold all 11 seats north of the Border, including Gordon which Alex Salmond is the clear favourite to win.

    Bravado or bluster?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11483968/Nick-Clegg-We-can-wipe-smile-off-Alex-Salmonds-face.html
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    RobD said:

    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

    It's not an eclipse.

    I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.

    Coincidence ?

    I think not.
    Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pick :)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @DavidL
    We are talking about averages.
    Does the original research annoy you moderately, or massively on a one to ten scale?
    (anyone else can join in if they wish, I have a dog needing walked)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

    The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

    Sigh.

    But even despite the hype, there was only a 45/43 split for independence. It is not at all clear that another YES campaign would win.

    The prospect of Ed Miliband dancing to Salmonds tune is not something that will go down well in England.



  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    Interesting, - Nick Clegg will tell the party's Scottish conference that it can confound opinion polls and hold all 11 seats north of the Border, including Gordon which Alex Salmond is the clear favourite to win.

    Bravado or bluster?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11483968/Nick-Clegg-We-can-wipe-smile-off-Alex-Salmonds-face.html

    If they can hold one seat, I hope it is Gordon!!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Interesting, - Nick Clegg will tell the party's Scottish conference that it can confound opinion polls and hold all 11 seats north of the Border, including Gordon which Alex Salmond is the clear favourite to win.

    Bravado or bluster?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11483968/Nick-Clegg-We-can-wipe-smile-off-Alex-Salmonds-face.html

    It shows that the Lib Dem policy on decriminalisation of drugs is evidence-led.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    DavidL said:

    Danny565 said:

    DavidL said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @DavidL
    There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

    Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

    Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

    What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

    I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.
    On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.

    Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.
    SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.
    Anyone who spends virtually all their free time in politics from the age of 16 onwards is going to have a challenge with a sense of humour.

    Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.
    You sure? They played his stuff in the Commons about Blair becoming President of Europe on r4 yesterday. Distinctly lame.

    I like Sturgeon. It's obvious why the tories are casting Salmond rather than her as the face of the SNP.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

    It's not an eclipse.

    I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.

    Coincidence ?

    I think not.
    Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pick :)
    Smarmy's slipping up ( must have started the whiskey early )

    Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Gadfly said:

    Sean_F said:

    There's a very funny story (which I can't link to right now) showing the Belgian Foreign Minister dressed up as a Black and White minstrel.

    http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31962154
    Papalazarou.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Clegg should ask Shadsy for an 11 hold Lib Dem Scottish special. I suspect he'll be able to offer nice odds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

    It's not an eclipse.

    I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.

    Coincidence ?

    I think not.
    Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pick :)
    Smarmy's slipping up ( must have started the whiskey early )

    Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)
    Pretty sure that should be "Tory boost to eclipse glass manufacturers". Long-term Economic Plan, don't you know.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

    It's not an eclipse.

    I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.

    Coincidence ?

    I think not.
    Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pick :)
    Smarmy's slipping up ( must have started the whiskey early )

    Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)
    Pretty sure that should be "Tory boost to eclipse glass manufacturers". Long-term Economic Plan, don't you know.
    No need for glasses in Brum, I'll be watching the eclipse through a welding mask. :-)
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    The eclipse has started in Newquay.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Last night at Rotary we had a chat about the forthcoming election in the Highlands. There was a view expressed Alastair Carmichael may be last man standing.

    People were horrified that last week on BBCQT he was allowed to go on when he was clearly pissed. The consensus was that he is in trouble and will struggle to hold on, something I would never have contemplated.

    I know hardly anyone who thinks John Thurso will hold our seat but the SNP campaign doesn't appear to have started yet and we have now had 5 communications from John Thurso.

    The tide seems to be turning against Danny Alexander's survival prospects. Some of my Liberal friends are starting to sound quite pessimistic. I still think he could sneak back in like Russell Johnston did in 1992 on an almost evenly split vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    The eclipse has started in Newquay.

    As Newquay goes, so does the country!
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Just for the record I am talking about Charles Kennedy in the 2nd paragraph below, not Alastair Carmichael!
This discussion has been closed.