Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Follow Today's forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher has CON lead down to 6 seats.
Wishful thinking on your part I'm afraid Mike - in fact the Tories' lead of 6 seats is precisely the same as in last week's projection. The only change of possible interest, as I pointed out, is that the Yellows are shown as being at an all time low on a miserable 21 seats.
It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.
I didn't say it was. I said it might be a way of dealing with the situation where they didn't feel the issue of the Union was going away. It seems to me this is why Labour are sunk in Scotland at this election, the 44.7% who voted for Independence are voting for the SNP and there's nothing Labour can say to convince them otherwise.
I am now looking forward to the next one on 12 August 2026, although I suspect that I will miss the one after that, which will occur on the 23 September 2090.
Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff
You mean "entrepreneur who has built FTSE company, employing tens of thousands of people, from a tired and failing mail order catalogue business has a view on labour costs"?
I mean Tory peer thinks £6.70 an hour is enough to live on thats why I typed Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff.
Simple really type what you think like you did?
Why do you tell lies about what he said? He talked about students working part time.
Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but....
Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.
I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.
Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!
There's the minor issue of how Scotland will pay its bills, you think politics will triumph over cash. I'm less convinced.
Lets see how Greece plays out before we can safely make that assumption ...
I am now looking forward to the next one on 12 August 2026, although I suspect that I will miss the one after that, which will occur on the 23 September 2090.
...why? Have you already made other plans?!
Mrs Gadfly is adamant that we will celebrate our 100th wedding anniversary in the Bahamas :-)
That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.
I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.
The whole point of the Yellow budget was to get attention. It managed it!
It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.
I actually have no idea of the content of this yellow budget.
But I am aware that it took place and was a hugely embarrasing turn of events with a pathetic turnout.
I am also aware that Mr Clegg yet again showed himself not to be a fit leader.
Bright, sunny Spring morning here in Penkridge. 13% of the sun provides amazing heat and light. I put this down to being in a Conservative constituency with an excellent MP.
I sincerely hope that the reality proves worse than the nightmare for Labour in Scotland. It's high time that this egregious movement disappeared from the political landscape. It would be fitting that the Scots, who nurtured the monster, should deliver the coup de grace.
DavidL Posts: 5,950 7:34AM "The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible"
An outstanding example of why the unionist parties are all heading for a partial or total eclipse.
A couple of things to note about last night's YouGov.
1) The sample size was 2,293 in recent months they've been polling around 1,700 people or so.
2) The Tories lead on the unweighted numbers, that's something that's not happened much (the odd one or two times in recent months) - Is this a sign of genuine crossover - One to watch.
It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.
I didn't say it was. I said it might be a way of dealing with the situation where they didn't feel the issue of the Union was going away. It seems to me this is why Labour are sunk in Scotland at this election, the 44.7% who voted for Independence are voting for the SNP and there's nothing Labour can say to convince them otherwise.
You suggested the aim should be to move 'Scottish political debate away from the Union'.
Currently the Unionist parties are leaving the 'standing up for Scotland' ground entirely to the SNP. If SLab decouples from London Labour and actually becomes a distinct entity they might at least be able to make a challenge. As things stand Murphy talking about being his own man and not being a Unionist or a Westminster politician just looks like the the dishonest, self-serving crap it is.
Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff
You mean "entrepreneur who has built FTSE company, employing tens of thousands of people, from a tired and failing mail order catalogue business has a view on labour costs"?
I mean Tory peer thinks £6.70 an hour is enough to live on thats why I typed Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff.
Simple really type what you think like you did?
Why do you tell lies about what he said? He talked about students working part time.
Because he is a Socialist and that is what they do.
Good set of borrowing figures. Deficit now £9bn lower year to date against 2013/2014.
Given the sustantial growth over the last year I can't believe people aren't calling this plan B. Osborne wanted borrowing down by about £20-25bn a year.
A couple of things to note about last night's YouGov.
1) The sample size was 2,293 in recent months they've been polling around 1,700 people or so.
2) The Tories lead on the unweighted numbers, that's something that's not happened much (the odd one or two times in recent months) - Is this a sign of genuine crossover - One to watch.
Approval rating just minus 12 too - most positive level I've seen it for a while.
Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff
You mean "entrepreneur who has built FTSE company, employing tens of thousands of people, from a tired and failing mail order catalogue business has a view on labour costs"?
I mean Tory peer thinks £6.70 an hour is enough to live on thats why I typed Tory Multi Millionaire thinks £6.70 is enough for his staff.
Simple really type what you think like you did?
Why do you tell lies about what he said? He talked about students working part time.
The Tory peer boss of fashion giant Next was slammed yesterday for claiming its £6.70-an-hour pay was “enough to live on”.
Lord Wolfson said the salary – just 3% above the minimum wage – was a decent amount for “a lot” of its staff.
"I think there are a lot of people for whom £6.70 is enough to live on.”
Have you lost the ability to read or comprehend.
I put it down to listening to GO.
Have you worked out what the 2015/16 personal allowance is yet or do you still think its gone up a further£200
A couple of things to note about last night's YouGov.
1) The sample size was 2,293 in recent months they've been polling around 1,700 people or so.
2) The Tories lead on the unweighted numbers, that's something that's not happened much (the odd one or two times in recent months) - Is this a sign of genuine crossover - One to watch.
Approval rating just minus 12 too - most positive level I've seen it for a while.
Lots of Ozzy on the telly - No wonder he's the most popular GB wide politician.
Nick Clegg can’t remember name of Lib Dem candidate in seat they’ve held since 1983
In an interview with the Aberdeen-based Press and Journal, the Deputy PM referred to the Lib Dem candidate for Gordon as “Justine” . Her name, as the interviewer helpfully pointed out, is actually Christine Jardine.
“I was speaking to Malcolm, he was right here this morning, and I was speaking to Justine…” Corrected by the Press and Journal, he continued: “Christine, sorry, Jardine, regularly.
I think the Libs would do well to keep Clegg well away from Aberdeen and well away from Salmond.
That said, I do expect today's Populus to have a Lab lead, they've consistently had Lab ahead, and the last one was a pro Tory outlier coming on from a pro Lab outlier.
"The SNP has now recognised that it got its oil sums completely and utterly wrong. "
Well, that made me laugh, but do please tell me what the oil price will be in 2025?
Well, we can be pretty certain it will not be as high as the SNP claims. But the fact is that the SNP has now basically admitted that its economic and fiscal case for independence was totally flawed. Scotland does not have the income the SNP said it did. If a border is the most important issue for the SNP then that will not matter, they will construct more dodgy data to support the case for separation; but if a redistributive, centre-left government is more important then independence will move to the back-burner. We shall see.
@MichaelLCrick: It seems Farage was bundled away from LBC without facing our cameras. Not like him. He must be terrified.
"I spoke to her [Ms Atkinson] after midnight and she said it was all to do with bills and fundraising - I was frankly confused by it all."
Confused...?
I wonder how many other 'dodgy' invoices have been raised?
Did I imagine it, or wasn't a Kipper earlier on this week, telling us something along the lines that UKIP are the most moral party not like those corrupt LibLabCon.
It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.
I didn't say it was. I said it might be a way of dealing with the situation where they didn't feel the issue of the Union was going away. It seems to me this is why Labour are sunk in Scotland at this election, the 44.7% who voted for Independence are voting for the SNP and there's nothing Labour can say to convince them otherwise.
You suggested the aim should be to move 'Scottish political debate away from the Union'.
Currently the Unionist parties are leaving the 'standing up for Scotland' ground entirely to the SNP. If SLab decouples from London Labour and actually becomes a distinct entity they might at least be able to make a challenge. As things stand Murphy talking about being his own man and not being a Unionist or a Westminster politician just looks like the the dishonest, self-serving crap it is.
Rather surprisingly, the Tories don't do much better - a lot of their own voters don't seem to think they represent Scotland well cf the usual 15-18% VI (but one would need to check the primary tables).
With all the discussion around Labour's problems in Scotland, we should spare a thought for the LDs. In 2010 they got 465,000 votes in Scotland: 186,000 of them across the 11 seats they hold. They are consistently now polling at only 4%, which means only 99,000 votes over the whole of Scotland. In 2010 in the 48 seats they did NOT win, they averaged 5,825 votes. Even if this time round they lose 85% of those votes (surely not even the LDs can do worse than that!), that still leaves only 57,000 votes to spread among the 11 seats they hold, or an average of 5,170. Unless they have completely abandoned most of the seats they hold, it looks almost impossible for them to retain more than one or two, if any.
Have you taken into account turnout? I'd be surprised if it isn't up considerably in Scotland. Having said that the numbers would still be pretty awful for the Lib Dems!
DavidL Posts: 5,950 7:34AM "The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible"
An outstanding example of why the unionist parties are all heading for a partial or total eclipse.
But a statement of fact nevertheless.
The SNP lied about oil income. The SNP lied about a currency union. The SNP lied about automatic EU membership. They did it knowing that in the event of a Yes vote the lies would not matter. The border would go up. And as nationalists that is all they cared about. It was very cynical, very rational and, thanks to the ineptitude of the Westminster parties, almost successful.
If a border is the most important issue for the SNP then that will not matter, they will construct more dodgy data to support the case for separation; but if a redistributive, centre-left government is more important then independence will move to the back-burner. We shall see.
The SNP like all nationalist parties will come up with some BS to justify their continuing monomania. If they were interested in rational politics they wouldn't be nationalists.
It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.
I didn't say it was. I said it might be a way of dealing with the situation where they didn't feel the issue of the Union was going away. It seems to me this is why Labour are sunk in Scotland at this election, the 44.7% who voted for Independence are voting for the SNP and there's nothing Labour can say to convince them otherwise.
You suggested the aim should be to move 'Scottish political debate away from the Union'.
Currently the Unionist parties are leaving the 'standing up for Scotland' ground entirely to the SNP. If SLab decouples from London Labour and actually becomes a distinct entity they might at least be able to make a challenge. As things stand Murphy talking about being his own man and not being a Unionist or a Westminster politician just looks like the the dishonest, self-serving crap it is.
The SNP is essentially a Unionist Party as a fierce defender of the British pound and the British monarchy, the only quibble was with Westminster but I see great enthusiasm from the SNP to get its people into the Mother of Parliaments.
It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.
I didn't say it was. I said it might be a way of dealing with the situation where they didn't feel the issue of the Union was going away. It seems to me this is why Labour are sunk in Scotland at this election, the 44.7% who voted for Independence are voting for the SNP and there's nothing Labour can say to convince them otherwise.
You suggested the aim should be to move 'Scottish political debate away from the Union'.
Currently the Unionist parties are leaving the 'standing up for Scotland' ground entirely to the SNP. If SLab decouples from London Labour and actually becomes a distinct entity they might at least be able to make a challenge. As things stand Murphy talking about being his own man and not being a Unionist or a Westminster politician just looks like the the dishonest, self-serving crap it is.
Rather surprisingly, the Tories don't do much better - a lot of their own voters don't seem to think they represent Scotland well cf the usual 15-18% VI (but one would need to check the primary tables).
Has the National polled the biggest immigrant block in Scotland (English) ? How does their vote break ?
It looks like Scottish politics is firmly polarised on the issue of the Union, but the votes for Independence are concentrated on one party*, the SNP, while the votes for the Union are split between Labour and Conservative. The question for the Unionist parties is whether this polarisation is now a permanent feature of Scottish politics, as it has been in Northern Ireland, or whether this will be a temporary phenomenon.
If it is likely to be permanent, then might Unionist electoral pacts be considered at some point? To move Scottish political debate away from the Union the Opposition parties will need to attack the competence of the SNP government at Holyrood, while resisting the temptation to add "and this is why Independence would be a disaster".
* I'm ignoring the Greens and the SSP on the side of Independence and UKIP and Lib Dems on the side of the Union.
Not sure that Unionist pacts would be the best method of moving the electorate's attention away from the issue of the Union. It would also cement in place the Red Tory meme, imo possibly a stronger motivating force in Scotland than independence, the constitution etc.
I didn't say it was. I said it might be a way of dealing with the situation where they didn't feel the issue of the Union was going away. It seems to me this is why Labour are sunk in Scotland at this election, the 44.7% who voted for Independence are voting for the SNP and there's nothing Labour can say to convince them otherwise.
You suggested the aim should be to move 'Scottish political debate away from the Union'.
Currently the Unionist parties are leaving the 'standing up for Scotland' ground entirely to the SNP. If SLab decouples from London Labour and actually becomes a distinct entity they might at least be able to make a challenge. As things stand Murphy talking about being his own man and not being a Unionist or a Westminster politician just looks like the the dishonest, self-serving crap it is.
FFS, no. I said "If it is likely to be permanent.." ie I examined the two scenarios - how they might change the debate away from the Independence question, and what else they might do if they decide they can't do that.
If a border is the most important issue for the SNP then that will not matter, they will construct more dodgy data to support the case for separation; but if a redistributive, centre-left government is more important then independence will move to the back-burner. We shall see.
The SNP like all nationalist parties will come up with some BS to justify their continuing monomania. If they were interested in rational politics they wouldn't be nationalists.
But the Unionist parties are British Nationalists. So where does that leave your argument? Vide the Agincourt nonsense ...
"The SNP has now recognised that it got its oil sums completely and utterly wrong. "
Well, that made me laugh, but do please tell me what the oil price will be in 2025?
More importantly how much oil will be produced in Scottish waters 10 more years into a relentless decline?
Which is actually the killer point. If Oil declines by say half because the price makes the NS uneconomic then Scotland needs to replace 10% of its GDP just to stand still.
NS decline is bad news for the UK, it's horrendous news for Scotland.
Timing when that one was done would be nice to know.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
Timing when that one was done would be nice to know.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
Stephen Fisher's latest weekly updated projection this morning as regards GE 2015 seats is once again based on VI polling figures of 33% for both the Tories and Labour, with the LibDems remaining on 8%. This has the Tories winning 284 seats (-1 on last week), Labour on 278 (-1 on last week) and the LibDems on just 21 seats (also -1 on last week and a new all time low for them). Elsewhere the SNP are shown as winning 41 seats, UKIP and Plaid winning 3 seats apiece, with the Greens retaining their one seat. A hung Parliament is shown as being an 87% probability.
The Lib Dems might easily fall off the cliff and only retain seats in the teens. The events of the last couple of days have made them a laughing stock:
Timing when that one was done would be nice to know.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday.
That's 36% of 2010 Lib Dem switching in the Con/Lab marginals.
They are very different beasts in the Lib Dem held seats.
Timing when that one was done would be nice to know.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
Rather surprisingly, the Tories don't do much better - a lot of their own voters don't seem to think they represent Scotland well cf the usual 15-18% VI (but one would need to check the primary tables).
Has the National polled the biggest immigrant block in Scotland (English) ? How does their vote break ?
It's a Survation poll as you will find if you read the article. You can find out for yourself no doubt and let us know (I have to do some work). Many of the Englihs incomers are pro-indy anyway. And many others are retiree homeowners so more prone to be Tory voters etc anyway.
Stephen Fisher's latest weekly updated projection this morning as regards GE 2015 seats is once again based on VI polling figures of 33% for both the Tories and Labour, with the LibDems remaining on 8%. This has the Tories winning 284 seats (-1 on last week), Labour on 278 (-1 on last week) and the LibDems on just 21 seats (also -1 on last week and a new all time low for them). Elsewhere the SNP are shown as winning 41 seats, UKIP and Plaid winning 3 seats apiece, with the Greens retaining their one seat. A hung Parliament is shown as being an 87% probability.
The Lib Dems might easily fall off the cliff and only retain seats in the teens. The events of the last couple of days have made them a laughing stock:
Timing when that one was done would be nice to know.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday.
Same as the Yougov ?
Not quite, as I understand it The Populus polls begin at 9am Wednesday and end around 6pm on Thursday.
Last night's YouGov began around 5pm Wednesday, and ended at around 4pm Thursday.
@MichaelLCrick: It seems Farage was bundled away from LBC without facing our cameras. Not like him. He must be terrified.
"I spoke to her [Ms Atkinson] after midnight and she said it was all to do with bills and fundraising - I was frankly confused by it all."
Confused...?
I wonder how many other 'dodgy' invoices have been raised?
Did I imagine it, or wasn't a Kipper earlier on this week, telling us something along the lines that UKIP are the most moral party not like those corrupt LibLabCon.
Twas MikeK, skilfully the ignoring the antics of Roger 'Happy Finish' Helmer, and the bent Kipper MEP's who've done time.
That's 36% of 2010 Lib Dem switching in the Con/Lab marginals.
They are very different beasts in the Lib Dem held seats.
That implies bad news for the Tories does it not ?
Yes and No.
Some of the seats the Lib Dems were holding on to were indicated very small majorities, so it only needed a minor swing for the Cons to gain a few seats.
Stephen Fisher's latest weekly updated projection this morning as regards GE 2015 seats is once again based on VI polling figures of 33% for both the Tories and Labour, with the LibDems remaining on 8%. This has the Tories winning 284 seats (-1 on last week), Labour on 278 (-1 on last week) and the LibDems on just 21 seats (also -1 on last week and a new all time low for them). Elsewhere the SNP are shown as winning 41 seats, UKIP and Plaid winning 3 seats apiece, with the Greens retaining their one seat. A hung Parliament is shown as being an 87% probability.
The Lib Dems might easily fall off the cliff and only retain seats in the teens. The events of the last couple of days have made them a laughing stock:
We have quite serious discussions on here about the Lib Dems losing their four safest seats by current percentage majority. I still think there's a decent chance they will hold on to more than 30 seats, but there's only about eight seats that I would be surprised if they lost.
@MichaelLCrick: It seems Farage was bundled away from LBC without facing our cameras. Not like him. He must be terrified.
"I spoke to her [Ms Atkinson] after midnight and she said it was all to do with bills and fundraising - I was frankly confused by it all."
Confused...?
I wonder how many other 'dodgy' invoices have been raised?
Did I imagine it, or wasn't a Kipper earlier on this week, telling us something along the lines that UKIP are the most moral party not like those corrupt LibLabCon.
Twas MikeK, skilfully the ignoring the antics of Roger 'Happy Finish' Helmer, and the bent Kipper MEP's who've done time.
After his defence of David Coburn on Saturday, MikeK has the touch of the Rogerdamus about him this week.
Timing when that one was done would be nice to know.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday.
That's 36% of 2010 Lib Dem switching in the Con/Lab marginals.
They are very different beasts in the Lib Dem held seats.
I'd assume they are doing more work in defending their own seats. However the biggest reason their own seats are different is surely because of tactical voting. But if the Tories cannot win Hallam and they can't I'd think, why should a Labour supporter not vote for who they want? Different scenario to the south west.
Is it plausible that the powers that pull the Tory party strings might not mind losing this election? A narrow Tory win means a new (potentially) competent Labour leader and even a tiny swing towards Labour in 2010 would put the Tories out of power. A Miliband led government could be chaotic and suspectible to collapsing within a couple of years leading to a potential Tory landslide and 10 years of coalition free government. All ifs and buts of course but certain backroom figures and the likes of Mr Johnson might be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on a weak PM Miliband.
That's 36% of 2010 Lib Dem switching in the Con/Lab marginals.
They are very different beasts in the Lib Dem held seats.
That implies bad news for the Tories does it not ?
2010 LD switchers are generally breaking 2:1 in favour of Labour in the marginals. So, yes.
Assuming no UKIP house effect, similar turnout to 2010GE, incumbency, no differential turnout and negligible Con-Lab switchers etc. a Tory incumbent in a Con/Lab marginal would be in trouble wherever his/her majority was <18% of the 2010LD vote share.
Is it plausible that the powers that pull the Tory party strings might not mind losing this election? A narrow Tory win means a new (potentially) competent Labour leader and even a tiny swing towards Labour in 2010 would put the Tories out of power. A Miliband led government could be chaotic and suspectible to collapsing within a couple of years leading to a potential Tory landslide and 10 years of coalition free government. All ifs and buts of course but certain backroom figures and the likes of Mr Johnson might be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on a weak PM Miliband.
Nonsense, of course they want to win.
@Southamobserver has suggested the SNP don't want to win too big. All parties want and, are playing to win.
It is the Tory air war vs the Labour ground game. The SNP meanwhile have 100,000 strong army to target just 59 seats.
"Does anyone else here head straight to the Scottish crosstab when a poll comes out btw ? Or is that just me."
And the scotes on the boards today is 46% SNP, 28% Lab and 11% Tory!
And for an explanation for this continuing surge look no further than the prejudices and bile flowing from the regular posters to this site . They claim, and perhaps even believe, they are mounting penetrating attacks on the SNP. They come across as purile assaults on an entire country, which are reflected to a greater or lesser extent by the Westminster parties struggling in the SNP's wake.
Timing when that one was done would be nice to know.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
Populus on the 12/3 had tories on 29. Before that 31 to 32. Each batch of weekly YGs seem to show a tread of tory vote share edging upwards. With UKIP Greens and SNP the movement between parties must be much more confused than before. There must be plenty scope for the polls to become as Farage calls it 'confused'.
Is it plausible that the powers that pull the Tory party strings might not mind losing this election? A narrow Tory win means a new (potentially) competent Labour leader and even a tiny swing towards Labour in 2010 would put the Tories out of power. A Miliband led government could be chaotic and suspectible to collapsing within a couple of years leading to a potential Tory landslide and 10 years of coalition free government. All ifs and buts of course but certain backroom figures and the likes of Mr Johnson might be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on a weak PM Miliband.
Nonsense, of course they want to win.
@Southamobserver has suggested the SNP don't want to win too big. All parties want and, are playing to win.
It is the Tory air war vs the Labour ground game. The SNP meanwhile have 100,000 strong army to target just 59 seats.
That depends I suppose on what you count as 'winning'. If the end game is running the country then surely engineering 10 years in sole power from 2020 is better than 5 years in co-power from tomorrow. All hypothetical of course, but looking at the long game I don't view this as a bad election for the Tories to lose (unlike 97' of course!)
Does Labour write the BBC articles... today's good debt numbers..
"February's government borrowing totalled £6.9bn, a fall of £3.5bn.
The government's latest target to borrow £90.2bn in the current fiscal year looks likely but it has failed in its plans to eliminate the deficit by 2015. "
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Today's forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher has CON lead down to 6 seats.
Wishful thinking on your part I'm afraid Mike - in fact the Tories' lead of 6 seats is precisely the same as in last week's projection.
The only change of possible interest, as I pointed out, is that the Yellows are shown as being at an all time low on a miserable 21 seats.
Was merely reporting what I was told...
https://www.dropbox.com/s/59zqwka80fzp2gy/Screenshot 2015-03-20 09.59.59.png?dl=0
Sow. Whirlwind. Reap.
Tail (Opposite direction) and all that risk, but the expected SNP return must be higher than it's price, the expected UKIP return lower.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31970118
But I am aware that it took place and was a hugely embarrasing turn of events with a pathetic turnout.
I am also aware that Mr Clegg yet again showed himself not to be a fit leader.
Mark it down as one of those *buy just before the exit poll comes out* bets.
Confused...?
7:34AM
"The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible"
An outstanding example of why the unionist parties are all heading for a partial or total eclipse.
1) The sample size was 2,293 in recent months they've been polling around 1,700 people or so.
2) The Tories lead on the unweighted numbers, that's something that's not happened much (the odd one or two times in recent months) - Is this a sign of genuine crossover - One to watch.
"The SNP has now recognised that it got its oil sums completely and utterly wrong. "
Well, that made me laugh, but do please tell me what the oil price will be in 2025?
Currently the Unionist parties are leaving the 'standing up for Scotland' ground entirely to the SNP. If SLab decouples from London Labour and actually becomes a distinct entity they might at least be able to make a challenge. As things stand Murphy talking about being his own man and not being a Unionist or a Westminster politician just looks like the the dishonest, self-serving crap it is.
Lord Wolfson said the salary – just 3% above the minimum wage – was a decent amount for “a lot” of its staff.
"I think there are a lot of people for whom £6.70 is enough to live on.”
Have you lost the ability to read or comprehend.
I put it down to listening to GO.
Have you worked out what the 2015/16 personal allowance is yet or do you still think its gone up a further£200
Nick Clegg can’t remember name of Lib Dem candidate in seat they’ve held since 1983
In an interview with the Aberdeen-based Press and Journal, the Deputy PM referred to the Lib Dem candidate for Gordon as “Justine” . Her name, as the interviewer helpfully pointed out, is actually Christine Jardine.
“I was speaking to Malcolm, he was right here this morning, and I was speaking to Justine…”
Corrected by the Press and Journal, he continued: “Christine, sorry, Jardine, regularly.
I think the Libs would do well to keep Clegg well away from Aberdeen and well away from Salmond.
http://www.thenational.scot/politics/only-half-of-2010-labour-voters-feel-party-best-represents-scots-today.1273
Rather surprisingly, the Tories don't do much better - a lot of their own voters don't seem to think they represent Scotland well cf the usual 15-18% VI (but one would need to check the primary tables).
Call it intuition.
Play our brilliant zombie shoot ‘em up: The Walking Ed!
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/the-walking-ed/?CMP=spklr-158592339-Editorial-TWITTER-TheSunNewspaper-20150320-SunNation
The SNP lied about oil income. The SNP lied about a currency union. The SNP lied about automatic EU membership. They did it knowing that in the event of a Yes vote the lies would not matter. The border would go up. And as nationalists that is all they cared about. It was very cynical, very rational and, thanks to the ineptitude of the Westminster parties, almost successful.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/uxxnsopoojc1igq/Screenshot 2015-03-20 10.20.44.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3dzg2xj8cvsklfu/Screenshot 2015-03-20 10.23.42.png?dl=0
It'll certainly be an interesting election night.
Last time it was this high was December 2010 ...
Con 31 (-3) Lab 34 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 17 (+2) Greens 5 (nc)
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_20-03-2015_BPC.pdf
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8ccc56c2-cd8e-11e4-8760-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Uv91oQ7j
NS decline is bad news for the UK, it's horrendous news for Scotland.
Following on from OGH's drawing to our attention of the 36% of 2010 Lib Dems switching to Labour in the marginals. That kin of swing would probably see them take Sheffield Hallam, though it would be close.
https://royaleleseaux.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/libdemgeddon-you-dont-want-to-miss-a-thing/
Their best hope is to hope no-one noticed.
They are very different beasts in the Lib Dem held seats.
But see my previous post also.
Last night's YouGov began around 5pm Wednesday, and ended at around 4pm Thursday.
Some of the seats the Lib Dems were holding on to were indicated very small majorities, so it only needed a minor swing for the Cons to gain a few seats.
This I'm sure is a surprise to no-one..
Very likely they started shortly after george sat down.
Labour 404 Con 368
Populus (voters who actually voted last time)
Labour 326 Con 329
Same thing is evident in a number of Ashcroft's marginals.
All ifs and buts of course but certain backroom figures and the likes of Mr Johnson might be licking their lips at the prospect of taking on a weak PM Miliband.
Best picture
You need to look at table 3 for the correct figures.
SNP 46, Lab 23
Assuming no UKIP house effect, similar turnout to 2010GE, incumbency, no differential turnout and negligible Con-Lab switchers etc. a Tory incumbent in a Con/Lab marginal would be in trouble wherever his/her majority was <18% of the 2010LD vote share.
If I've got my maths right.
Budget unbounce?
EICIPM still 2.64 on Betfair
@Southamobserver has suggested the SNP don't want to win too big. All parties want and, are playing to win.
It is the Tory air war vs the Labour ground game. The SNP meanwhile have 100,000 strong army to target just 59 seats.
Thanks, I just noticed that too...
"Does anyone else here head straight to the Scottish crosstab when a poll comes out btw ? Or is that just me."
And the scotes on the boards today is 46% SNP, 28% Lab and 11% Tory!
And for an explanation for this continuing surge look no further than the prejudices and bile flowing from the regular posters to this site . They claim, and perhaps even believe, they are mounting penetrating attacks on the SNP. They come across as purile assaults on an entire country, which are reflected to a greater or lesser extent by the Westminster parties struggling in the SNP's wake.
Bravo - after a very grey sky during the eclipse, we now annoyingly have blue sky & sunshine.
Each batch of weekly YGs seem to show a tread of tory vote share edging upwards. With UKIP Greens and SNP the movement between parties must be much more confused than before. There must be plenty scope for the polls to become as Farage calls it 'confused'.
"February's government borrowing totalled £6.9bn, a fall of £3.5bn.
The government's latest target to borrow £90.2bn in the current fiscal year looks likely but it has failed in its plans to eliminate the deficit by 2015. "
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31980802