politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Less than seven weeks to go and the Labour Scottish nightma

Good morning.

I wonder if the BBC computer will break down if the SNP are on 50% of the UK-wide vote after a few early results!

It will certainly give them something to talk about. Would also mean that there would be a nationwide swing from Labour to the Tories after the first fifty-odd seats if most of them are Scottish. That would cause some confusion if they weren't separated out.

JackW said:

RobD said:

I wonder if the BBC computer will break down if the SNP are on 50% of the UK-wide vote after a few early results!

Bring back the wooden swingometer or more importantly put my ARSE on display for the nation on election night..

I'm sure there is some comment about Dimbleby expertly probing your ARSE.....

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

Farage will come down on UKIP miscreant like a metric ton (tonne) of bricks.
"We've got to behave absolutely properly and if we see anything we think is wrong, we will come down on it like a tonne of bricks."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-31976343

The surgeon who was to be Tim Farron's UKIP opponent has resigned...

"Ukip candidate resigns: Jonathan Stanley leaves party citing 'open racism and bullying'"

http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/11868250.Ukip_candidate_resigns__Jonathan_Stanley_leaves_party__citing__open_racism_and_bullying_/

Scottish Labour is doomed, doomed I tell ya!

(Cue Private Frazer video)

As I've said before, I don't think it's going to be as bad for them as the polls currently show: enough people will harken back to their traditional voting patterns on the day. But it's going to be bad.

It's enough to make me feel sorry for Murphy. The mess isn't his doing, but he's the one who'll be down as leader in the history books when it occurred.

Gadfly said:

The surgeon who was to be Tim Farron's UKIP opponent has resigned...

"Ukip candidate resigns: Jonathan Stanley leaves party citing 'open racism and bullying'"

http://www.thewestmorlandgazette.co.uk/news/11868250.Ukip_candidate_resigns__Jonathan_Stanley_leaves_party__citing__open_racism_and_bullying_/

Just seen that the suspended UKIP woman is the same one that used the phrase 'Ting Tong' to describe on of her supporters. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-29039503
We also lost the UKIP candidate where I live :
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-rows-see-fareham-parliamentary-candidate-suspended-and-then-quit-1-6543949

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

FPT

EPG said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.

We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.

And in reality the risk of the Bomb is far more than it was in the 50s and 60's with sundry nutters liable to get hold of it and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks.

In the end thanks to

It's Uncle Vova, apparently.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

FPT

EPG said:

NickPalmer said:

SquareRoot said:

Ignoring posts like Roger's meal with his mate.. and Rosaree's ridiculous posts what actual vibes are you getting re Budget 2015???. I've met lots of people but not a soul has mentioned it in any way whatsoever.

I phone-canvassed 30-odd this evening who had doorstep-canvassed as undecided. A few said they would vote Labour, a couple said they were Tory, the rest sounded not very interested at all. Nobody mentioned the Budget, either positively or negatively. The one who engaged most interestingly was a woman in her 70s, who compared the current Middle East with Wolf Hall Britain ("we did plenty of beheading, and even demolished holy relics, just like ISIS") and expressed puzzlement that young people didn't seem as scared of the future as most people did when she grew up.

We young people aren't living under the shadow of THE BOMB. Rightly or wrongly, it doesn't feature in our thoughts.

And in reality the risk of the Bomb is far more than it was in the 50s and 60's with sundry nutters liable to get hold of it and the west continuing to poke Uncle Vlad and his bear with sharp sticks.

Mind you, I could think of a few places that could do with being nuked thanks to the efforts of governments and town planners in the 50s and 60's

I know Farage admires Putin. Do you think that we, the UK and Europe, are too hard on Russia over Ukraine?

Where have all the posters gone who kept telling us there was "nothing to see in Scottish Labour" and "Falkirk was of no consequence"?

felix said:

Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but....

Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.

I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.

Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!

Patrick said:

felix said:

Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but....

Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.

I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.

Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!

There's the minor issue of how Scotland will pay its bills, you think politics will triumph over cash. I'm less convinced.

Small "p" political quiz

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31973051

Apparently my political views are centrist and typical on these measures. (12/25)

On topic, Scots seem far more settled in their voting intentions than the English. The main outstanding question is how accurately the polls are assessing this.

I see no reason to expect any swingback to Labour from here at all. It might happen, but it isn't baked in.

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Liberal Democrats are getting farcical. He looks like a bad street magician:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3003148/Don-t-day-job-Nick-dram-fan-Clegg-hams-filming-Lib-Dem-election-broadcast.html

That is pretty embarrassing but not as embarrassing as leaving poor Danny looking ridiculous in the HoC with even his leader not willing to be seen in shot. That struck me as a man who had given up any pretensions of leadership of his party.

I think in any future Coalition it may be necessary to find the Chief Secretary a role, however modest, on Budget day itself. I also think, to be frank, that there should have been an understanding that there would be a decent Tory turnout for Danny in the same way the Lib Dems were there for Osbo. Poor tactics all round by the Lib Dems and Osborne takes no prisoners whatsoever.

The whole point of the Yellow budget was to get attention. It managed it!

It is possible to recover from being disliked as Osborne has, but near impossible to recover from pity and being a laughing stock.

The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

Sigh.

@antifrank
You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.

Sean_F said:

There's a very funny story (which I can't link to right now) showing the Belgian Foreign Minister dressed up as a Black and White minstrel.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31962154

Nice to see that a 2 point Tory lead in YouGov is no longer unusual enough to warrant an "interesting poll" teaser from TN-D...

Smarmeron said:

@CarlottaVance
Falkirk has very little resonance, but the present polling for the SNP has.

Another one who thinks if it doesn't affect polls in England it doesn't matter......

Alanbrooke said:

Patrick said:

felix said:

Good to see the Scottish Tory vote holding while the rest of the non-SNP vote is so far down. There is the tiniest chance that the Tories could get more seats than SLAB. Now that would be funny. I know it won't happen but....

Tories in middling to high teens in Scotland! That's not bad all things considered.

I think this polling tells us that the UK has a shelf life now. The Scottish heart has gone and the political/electoral/constitutional realities just need to catch up with that. A near clean sweep for the SNP in Westminster will only serve to accelerate it. The Sindy referendum was a very Pyrrhic battle won by unionists in a war that they re going to lose.

Which is jolly sad for the UK - but potetnially top news for England! Go Alex!

There's the minor issue of how Scotland will pay its bills, you think politics will triumph over cash. I'm less convinced.

You're dead right and it's going to be horrible. Westminster craven machine politicians will pander to the Scots and English voters will get very het up about it. I think the best solution would be for a brave PM to say: 'Everyone in the UK must be treated equally. We'll harmonise public spending per capita across the UK and make it illegal for some UK citizens (English) to be discriminated against anywhere in the UK (Scottish universities?). We will end Barnett. What Scotland gets, England gets.'

A 'no more mollycoddling' message would effectively force Scotland to stay on equal terms or to go - but either way to shut the fuck up. Sure, an exit would be an unmitigated financial catastrophe for Scotland and render them poorer and more diminshed than Quebec has become in Canada. But the rest of the UK should not play the SNP game. Their position is ridiculous and unsustainable. It diminishes any UK politician who dances to their tune.

@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

Smarmeron said:

@antifrank
You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.

Scottish Labour have a hard decision to make now: how many seats do they really try to salvage? If they're too ambitious, they'll end up losing more than they need to, as they did in 2011. But if they are hard-headed, there are going to be some very upset MPs.

If I were Jim Murphy, I'd be aiming for 12 to 15, I think. The next still harder question is: which 15?

DavidL said:

The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

Sigh.

It's what happens when voters feel they are completely excluded from the decision-making process. The political establishment in England is fortunate that only UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens are ranged against them. The fact is that we are only a few months into the aftermath of a two year process that ended up electrifying and engaging the vast majority of Scottish voters. It's going to take a long while - and probably at least one more Assembly election - for that to begin to wear off. At some stage, though, it will. Who is left standing at that stage will be fascinating to see.

Smarmeron said:

@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

Sigh.

It's what happens when voters feel they are completely excluded from the decision-making process. The political establishment in England is fortunate that only UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens are ranged against them. The fact is that we are only a few months into the aftermath of a two year process that ended up electrifying and engaging the vast majority of Scottish voters. It's going to take a long while - and probably at least one more Assembly election - for that to begin to wear off. At some stage, though, it will. Who is left standing at that stage will be fascinating to see.

You're right. Looking forward to, say, 2025, what does SLAB offer that the SNP doesn't? Both broadly left of centre machine politics. Might we see a Tory surge...

DavidL said:

Smarmeron said:

@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.

On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.

Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.

antifrank said:

Smarmeron said:

@antifrank
You can calculate the amount of "swingback" in Scotland by looking at the nationwide polls in the last fortnight before the election.
If the Tories are clearly ahead, SLab can kiss it's nether regions goodbye.

Scottish Labour have a hard decision to make now: how many seats do they really try to salvage? If they're too ambitious, they'll end up losing more than they need to, as they did in 2011. But if they are hard-headed, there are going to be some very upset MPs.

If I were Jim Murphy, I'd be aiming for 12 to 15, I think. The next still harder question is: which 15?

Which 14.

East Renfrewshire is a given.

@DavidL
Link to the study of relative wealth, or different social attitudes to it?
The former was reported widely this past week, the latter has not been done.

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

The Scottish situation shows the limitations of economics as the determining factor of politics. It is not always "the economy, stupid".

The SNP platform in the Indy ref was ludicrous and fundamentally dishonest at the time. It made the policies of Syriza look careful, well thought through and vaguely credible. Events since the referendum have conspired to highlight that dishonesty, fantasy and incompetence to a degree that was not even imaginable at the time. And....Scots don't care. They just don't.

Sigh.

It's what happens when voters feel they are completely excluded from the decision-making process. The political establishment in England is fortunate that only UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens are ranged against them. The fact is that we are only a few months into the aftermath of a two year process that ended up electrifying and engaging the vast majority of Scottish voters. It's going to take a long while - and probably at least one more Assembly election - for that to begin to wear off. At some stage, though, it will. Who is left standing at that stage will be fascinating to see.

You're right. Looking forward to, say, 2025, what does SLAB offer that the SNP doesn't? Both broadly left of centre machine politics. Might we see a Tory surge...

That is actually a fair point. The SNP has now recognised that it got its oil sums completely and utterly wrong. From that comes the acceptance that an independent Scotland would run a deficit of around 8%, and from that comes the reality of not being able to do anything remotely left wing. There is only one direction that yesterday's recognition takes the SNP. And it may not be very good news for Labour at all.

Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

RobD said:

Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

A touch, are you in a desert right now ?

One hopes that the possibility of a Tory government will concentrate the Scottish minds enough that by election day,Lab are polling in the low 30`s and SNP in the high 30`s.

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:

Smarmeron said:

@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.

That's why there is nothing left-wing about it.

Yup. An independent Scotland could not afford to be a lefty bankruptopia. A socialist administration would see the journey from Yes to Greece was very short.

Smarmeron said:

@RobD
I have mine, and a bottle of Bowmore at the ready.
Like a true Scot, I refuse to pass bye a drinking opportunity after sunset.

There are several minutes of near totality. Can you finish the bottle?

@RobD
Like the old Scottish armies.....the odds mean nothing, the attempt must be made!

DavidL said:

Danny565 said:

DavidL said:

Smarmeron said:

@DavidL
There is a fairly simple test you can do if you want to understand regional differences.

Ask people how they view the fact that 26 of the richest people in the world "own" more wealth than half of the rest.

Do you have a link. I really doubt that there would be significant differences of view on that (assuming it is true of course) across the entire country. Attempts to differentiate the social attitudes of Scots as more socialist or collectivist have, in my recollection, found nothing outside the margin of error.

What I do agree with is an observation I read last night (can't remember who made it). For Salmond Scottish independence was an end in itself. Sturgeon seems to have much clearer ideas of what she would do with it.

I think Salmond was deliberately ambiguous to keep the tent as large as possible but Sturgeon has gone for the jugular of the SLAB vote by much more clearly identifying what the SNP believe in. She seems to have gained 4 or 5 SLAB voters for every tartan tory she might have lost. She is not to be underestimated.

On top of that, she also actually seems LIKEABLE. In her piece on the BBC News last night, she came across genuine, managed to actually say what she meant in clear English, but without seeming arrogant - all very rare qualities for a politician.

Can't help but feel that, if in another universe she was the UK Labour leader, we'd be coasting to a win this year.

SNP activists that I know says she has a fairly serious humour deficit or at least she did when she was younger. She may have relaxed a bit. She does come across well, very down to earth and modest. Still talks absolute nonsense of course and has very centralising and bureaucratic instincts as First Minister but you can't have everything.

Anyone who spends virtually all their free time in politics from the age of 16 onwards is going to have a challenge with a sense of humour.

Actually, scrap that. That might not be true: see Hague, William.

RobD said:

Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

It's not an eclipse.

I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.

Coincidence ?

I think not.

Interesting, - Nick Clegg will tell the party's Scottish conference that it can confound opinion polls and hold all 11 seats north of the Border, including Gordon which Alex Salmond is the clear favourite to win.

Bravado or bluster?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11483968/Nick-Clegg-We-can-wipe-smile-off-Alex-Salmonds-face.html

@DavidL
We are talking about averages.
Does the original research annoy you moderately, or massively on a one to ten scale?
(anyone else can join in if they wish, I have a dog needing walked)

SimonStClare said:

Interesting, - Nick Clegg will tell the party's Scottish conference that it can confound opinion polls and hold all 11 seats north of the Border, including Gordon which Alex Salmond is the clear favourite to win.

Bravado or bluster?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11483968/Nick-Clegg-We-can-wipe-smile-off-Alex-Salmonds-face.html

If they can hold one seat, I hope it is Gordon!!

Gadfly said:

Sean_F said:

There's a very funny story (which I can't link to right now) showing the Belgian Foreign Minister dressed up as a Black and White minstrel.

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31962154

Papalazarou.

Alanbrooke said:

RobD said:

Alanbrooke said:

RobD said:

Hope everyone has their glasses ready for the eclipse! Is it cloudy over there?

It's not an eclipse.

I simply note that Osborne is coming to Birmingham today and the news says the sun will disappear and we will be cast in to darkness about the time of his arrival.

Coincidence ?

I think not.

Or, things are so good the Sun is rising twice in one day (hat tip, Smarmeron)? Take your pick

Smarmy's slipping up ( must have started the whiskey early )

Surely it should have been TORY CUTS MAKE DAYS SHORTER :-)

Pretty sure that should be "Tory boost to eclipse glass manufacturers". Long-term Economic Plan, don't you know.

The eclipse has started in Newquay.

frpenkridge said:

The eclipse has started in Newquay.

As Newquay goes, so does the country!