politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pics from last night’s gathering
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pics from last night’s gathering
Maybe because it was mid-week in a new venue but last night’s PB London Gathering didn’t attract the numbers that we have got used to. Still about 20 made the trip to a congenial pub close to Liverpool Street station for what turned out to be a really good evening.
Comments
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Pulpstar
Sorry does that mean you don't want Labour to win or you do??0 -
Nabavi is not nearly so impressive without his wig.0
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FPT - Populus used to do the Tory private polling but they use Crosby Textor these days (and have done so for a while)0
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In the least surprising news of the day....
@robindbrant
looks like @TheSunNewspaper - unsurprisingly - heading towards endorsing @Conservatives if you're listening to @StigAbell on @SkyNewsBreak0 -
Why is Antifrank wearing a flashers coat?0
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As a rule, Thursday/Friday night PB bashes work well for us Northern Monkeys.0
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Thursdays and Fridays generally good for me too!0
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If I was Labour I would ask for a refund on that polling as it is trash.
No big changes in the odds on offer, UKIP shortening slightly and that is about it.0 -
By the way while I was away for 2 weeks I had the opportunity to airbrush my constituency polls file and crunch some numbers with the new constituency polls:
From a total of 157 constituency polls (80 Tory seats, 41 LD seats, 35 Labour and one Green), the Tories lose 45 seats and gain 9, Labour gain 52 seats and lose 17 (all of them scottish), the LD lose 20, UKIP gain 3 and the SNP gains 21.
In total the percentage changes of votes since the last election is CON -7%, LAB +0.5%, LD -12.5%, UKIP +13.5%, SNP/GRN +5%, that result is pretty much in line with the national polls with the noticeable exception that the LD retain far more votes at the expense of mostly the Tories.
Further more I broke down the constituency polls into regional swings.
The Tory to Labour swing in Tory held seats is by region and size:
London: 6%
E.Midlands: 6%
S.W. England : 6%
S.E. : 5.5%
N.W. :5.5%
W.Midlands: 4.5%
Yorkshire: 4.5%
East England: 4%
Wales : 3%
Scotland: -5%
N. England: Not enough polls.
The Tory to UKIP swing Tory held seats is by region and size:
London: 7.5%
E.Midlands: 11.5%
S.W. England : 11%
S.E. : 16%
N.W. :11%
W.Midlands: 11%
Yorkshire: 10.5%
East England: 13.5%
Wales :8%
Scotland: 0%
N. England: Not enough polls.
There were not any new constituency polls in LD seats( apart from scotland) so the numbers are the same with the Tories doing exceptionally badly in the S.E against them and Labour doing exceptionally good against the LD with double digit swings almost everywhere except the SE and the W.Midlands.
The new factor has been scotland with the SNP recording swings of 24% against Labour and 21% against the LD.
I also introduced a new element based again solely on the seats that have been polled, a 3.5% error margin in the constituency polls and established a best and worst case for each party using that margin of error.
CON Best case 293 seats.
CON Worst case 242 seats.
LAB Best case 318 seats.
LAB Worst case 246 seats.
SNP Best case 58 seats.
SNP Worst case 21 seats.
LD Best case 41 seats.
LD Worst case 15 seats.
UKIP Best case 17 seats.
UKIP worst case 1 seat.
Also take into account that the Tories and LD cannot be both at the upper range since the are competing in some seats, hence the best case for the Coalition is CON 293, LD 26 seats and the worst case is CON 242, LD 33 seats.0 -
What a disappointment, I was expecting those Cheerleaders for the American football team
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Are you suggesting it is not his own?TheScreamingEagles said:Why is Antifrank wearing a flashers coat?
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Shame on you, it'd be Vivienne Westwood. And plaid. Or was it tartan?PClipp said:
Are you suggesting it is not his own?TheScreamingEagles said:Why is Antifrank wearing a flashers coat?
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All my illusions are shattered.
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So much LOL!TheScreamingEagles said:Why is Antifrank wearing a flashers coat?
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No English team in the QF of the CL yet again - let Spurs in we've got 100% record of reaching them!0
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If that's what they're using to pump up their troops it sounds a load of BS.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT - Populus used to do the Tory private polling but they use Crosby Textor these days (and have done so for a while)
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I'm fairly certain the Tories didn't carry out that the Thanet South poll.Casino_Royale said:
If that's what they're using to pump up their troops it sounds a load of BS.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT - Populus used to do the Tory private polling but they use Crosby Textor these days (and have done so for a while)
It was done by ComRes0 -
Sorry to have missed it. Midweek drinkies were not possible with on 0800 start on Wednesday.
Did anything come together for a midlands drinkies the week before Broxtowe's day of decision?0 -
When will it be published (if ever?).TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm fairly certain the Tories didn't carry out that the Thanet South poll.Casino_Royale said:
If that's what they're using to pump up their troops it sounds a load of BS.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT - Populus used to do the Tory private polling but they use Crosby Textor these days (and have done so for a while)
It was done by ComRes0 -
If it is a private poll, then it never will be published.Speedy said:
When will it be published (if ever?).TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm fairly certain the Tories didn't carry out that the Thanet South poll.Casino_Royale said:
If that's what they're using to pump up their troops it sounds a load of BS.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT - Populus used to do the Tory private polling but they use Crosby Textor these days (and have done so for a while)
It was done by ComRes0 -
We made the SF last year and won it three years ago, in fact our record is very good.Scrapheap_as_was said:No English team in the QF of the CL yet again - let Spurs in we've got 100% record of reaching them!
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Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag570
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Unless it is used for Lib Dem style bar chart leaflets providing Labour come 2nd in the polling.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is a private poll, then it never will be published.Speedy said:
When will it be published (if ever?).TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm fairly certain the Tories didn't carry out that the Thanet South poll.Casino_Royale said:
If that's what they're using to pump up their troops it sounds a load of BS.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT - Populus used to do the Tory private polling but they use Crosby Textor these days (and have done so for a while)
It was done by ComRes
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Depends on the results and if the one who pays the bill likes it.TheScreamingEagles said:
If it is a private poll, then it never will be published.Speedy said:
When will it be published (if ever?).TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm fairly certain the Tories didn't carry out that the Thanet South poll.Casino_Royale said:
If that's what they're using to pump up their troops it sounds a load of BS.TheScreamingEagles said:FPT - Populus used to do the Tory private polling but they use Crosby Textor these days (and have done so for a while)
It was done by ComRes0 -
I expect that Sheffield Hallam and Thanet South will be the two most polled constituencies in this election.0
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YOUGOV soon
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Yes a bit like when you see radio presenters in the flesh,I will stay behind my Jayfdee image for now,but it may be exposed soon.MarkHopkins said:
All my illusions are shattered.
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Obvious IMO from todays budget response that EIC and the DPM dislike each other massively0
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Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.0
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Hi Ed.....roserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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So Barcelona only able to do as well as Burnley against Man City - a 1-0 victory at home0
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@Speedy
Thanks for the analysis. It seems UNS is not dead (Scotland excluded). How the interparty swings all fit together though!0 -
Well, there may be a couple of pom pom boys..Pulpstar said:What a disappointment, I was expecting those Cheerleaders for the American football team
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It is nothing less than a jobs miracle. I regularly peruse over the monthly labour market survey stats produced within my county. Over the last eighteen months to two years ive seen the most extraordinary drops in unemployment. And within circles of friends i know, people who have been out of work for long before the crash, are now back working. In many cases it just wasnt worth people putting in the genuine effort to look for work, because the payback was minimal compared to benefits. One person specifically went back to work because of the financial implications of the bedroom tax, her son left home for university. She is now a store manager working fifty to sixty hours a week and absolutely loves it.Scott_P said:Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag57
Another one was getting a bit of earache so took up volunteering in a youth project (i wrote her a reference), she now works thirty hours for the organisation. Another one, out of work for some time, quite capable, likeable person, but he kind of just floated into the role of looking after the young children while his wife worked part time. He got rang up and asked if he wanted to come to an interview, for a company he hadnt even applied for. Again, he now works all the hours god sends.
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.0 -
roserees64 said:
Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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I know, bless.Ave_it said:roserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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Cons are "due" a lead in Yougov, #gamblersfallacy0
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It wasn't the speech he wanted to deliver.roserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance.
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I must have missed that bit. The excerpt I heard at lunchtime was a rather lame string of cliches. Maybe that was why you liked it....roserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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Why is Stodge at an angle?0
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I was shocked how good Ed wasroserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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Fat Steve is half the man I expected.
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Ed same old same old crap.. The Tories let us down.. NHS NHS NHS devoid of anything positive to say.. expect more of the same till polling day.foxinsoxuk said:
I must have missed that bit. The excerpt I heard at lunchtime was a rather lame string of cliches. Maybe that was why you liked it....roserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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There are certainly signs of this. Such a shame that our broadcasting media focus on those folk who cannot cope or refuse to work. We would have a better society if the reforms that Labour started and IDS put a rocket behind are carried on. Maybe Rachel Reeves means what she says in that Labour are changing into the party for the working? For my children's future I hope so.notme said:
It is nothing less than a jobs miracle. I regularly peruse over the monthly labour market survey stats produced within my county. Over the last eighteen months to two years ive seen the most extraordinary drops in unemployment. And within circles of friends i know, people who have been out of work for long before the crash, are now back working. In many cases it just wasnt worth people putting in the genuine effort to look for work, because the payback was minimal compared to benefits. One person specifically went back to work because of the financial implications of the bedroom tax, her son left home for university. She is now a store manager working fifty to sixty hours a week and absolutely loves it.....Scott_P said:Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag57
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.
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@BBCNewsnight: Coming up on Newsnight's #Budget2015 special: @EvanHD grills @DavidGauke and @ChrisLeslieMP on their plans for the economy...
I wonder is Chris has read the briefing notes yet
@DavidGauke: On @Channel4News earlier with Chris Leslie. He was asked 9 times how much Labour would cut spending or increase taxes in 2016-18. No answer.0 -
TSETheScreamingEagles said:I expect that Sheffield Hallam and Thanet South will be the two most polled constituencies in this election.
I am the third person, that i know of, out of a relatively small group of friends in just one village (Wingham) that have been polled in the last 3 weeks alone!!0 -
Evan Davis "grills" = asks a question, then constantly interrupts with his opinion, before we get chance to hear the answer.Scott_P said:@BBCNewsnight: Coming up on Newsnight's #Budget2015 special: @EvanHD grills @DavidGauke and @ChrisLeslieMP on their plans for the economy...
I wonder is Chris has read the briefing notes yet
@DavidGauke: On @Channel4News earlier with Chris Leslie. He was asked 9 times how much Labour would cut spending or increase taxes in 2016-18. No answer.0 -
Have they said who the polling company was?RepublicanTory said:
TSETheScreamingEagles said:I expect that Sheffield Hallam and Thanet South will be the two most polled constituencies in this election.
I am the third person, that i know of, out of a relatively small group of friends in just one village (Wingham) that have been polled in the last 3 weeks alone!!
I imagine it will get like how it was in Newark where everyone is sick with being pestered and want the GE to come and go quickly.
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Hi, saw your post re quietness from Carswell... he is back on the tweets in the last hour but they are pro UKIP and anti Tory so I guess Farage must have nicked his phone againScrapheap_as_was said:No English team in the QF of the CL yet again - let Spurs in we've got 100% record of reaching them!
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Absolutely give labour credit for starting reform towards the end of their term of office. But could you imagine how successful it would have been if it was done during that long sustained boom we had. We had people sitting on the couch doing nothing, while employers couldnt get people to work, so recruited them en masse from overseas.TCPoliticalBetting said:
There are certainly signs of this. Such a shame that our broadcasting media focus on those folk who cannot cope or refuse to work. We would have a better society if the reforms that Labour started and IDS put a rocket behind are carried on. Maybe Rachel Reeves means what she says in that Labour are changing into the party for the working? For my children's future I hope so.notme said:
It is nothing less than a jobs miracle. I regularly peruse over the monthly labour market survey stats produced within my county. Over the last eighteen months to two years ive seen the most extraordinary drops in unemployment. And within circles of friends i know, people who have been out of work for long before the crash, are now back working. In many cases it just wasnt worth people putting in the genuine effort to look for work, because the payback was minimal compared to benefits. One person specifically went back to work because of the financial implications of the bedroom tax, her son left home for university. She is now a store manager working fifty to sixty hours a week and absolutely loves it.....Scott_P said:Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag57
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.
The get tough approach, work capability tests, benefits sanctions, workfare were all things that the last government initiated, but have also been the focus of the current oppositions political fire. Its going to be tough to implement tough reforms, when even the mildest changes were opposed.
FFS, they thought that a £26k benefits cap (thats a cap, not a freeze, for the dimwitted on here) was wrong!
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The mechanics of UNS still apply to the vast majority of seats, but you need to adjust it because of strong regional factors if parts of the country behave radically different (example the S.W in 1997 and the strong anti-Tory tactical vote there).foxinsoxuk said:@Speedy
Thanks for the analysis. It seems UNS is not dead (Scotland excluded). How the interparty swings all fit together though!
Trying to predict seat outcomes is like trying to rebuilt John Harrisons first sea clock.
http://collections.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/79139.html
There are now all kinds of springs and gears which react differently if party X does much better in region A than party Y in region B and Party Z in region C.
A simplified solution is to get the national swing to Labour, add to it about 1.5% and then subtract 40 seats from Labour to compensate for Scotland.0 -
Don't tell me and then you woke up? I'm no Tory but that certainly wasn 't what I saw today. Osborne was on form. Perhaps overly so considering the state of the economy. Miliband well I hear he has done worse but let's face it he's just not really much cop at this speaking larkroserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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Guardian readers will choke on their fair trade organic GM free museli and almond milk, when they first catch a glimpse of the front page...once they get past that, they will be ok though.0
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I don't think there's been a week since the start of Jan that we or people near us haven't been phone polled.RepublicanTory said:
TSETheScreamingEagles said:I expect that Sheffield Hallam and Thanet South will be the two most polled constituencies in this election.
I am the third person, that i know of, out of a relatively small group of friends in just one village (Wingham) that have been polled in the last 3 weeks alone!!
I can only conclude that
1) The Lib Dems are worried they might lose here
2) Lab are confident are winning here.0 -
Have they said who the polling company was?
I imagine it will get like how it was in Newark where everyone is sick with being pestered and want the GE to come and go quickly.
I asked and it was Comres
I have asked my friends to let me know who polls them-they know i am a sad git who spends half my life lurking PB !! Sadly the other 2 didn't know.
I think you are probably right about polling fatigue-it may well explain why it has taken Comres a week to carry out this survey.0 -
If you want to see how an opposition leader should respond to a budget, you should have seen Dave's last two. Totally astonishingly good parliamentary performances. Each budget was ripped apart, by the time he sat down, you could see the grim uncomfortable faces on the government benches.Hengists_Gift said:
Don't tell me and then you woke up? I'm no Tory but that certainly wasn 't what I saw today. Osborne was on form. Perhaps overly so considering the state of the economy. Miliband well I hear he has done worse but let's face it he's just not really much cop at this speaking larkroserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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ooh Almond Milk! I have just started on that its lovely!FrancisUrquhart said:Guardian readers will choke on their fair trade organic GM free museli and almond milk, when they first catch a glimpse of the front page...once they get past that, they will be ok though.
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If this Thanet South poll is Comres I wonder if its the Mail trying to rattle some cages?0
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OT Anyone watching The Flash? Blimey - that was a great episode last night. The use of Marvel and DC Comic characters has taken the industry by storm in recent years.0
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Tomorrow's Times editorial opines that it did not sound like the budget of a chancellor who expected it to be his last.0
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I probably did watch them but any memories of Cameron's oratory prowess have long since faded. Far too much water under the bridge.....notme said:
If you want to see how an opposition leader should respond to a budget, you should have seen Dave's last two. Totally astonishingly good parliamentary performances. Each budget was ripped apart, by the time he sat down, you could see the grim uncomfortable faces on the government benches.Hengists_Gift said:
Don't tell me and then you woke up? I'm no Tory but that certainly wasn 't what I saw today. Osborne was on form. Perhaps overly so considering the state of the economy. Miliband well I hear he has done worse but let's face it he's just not really much cop at this speaking larkroserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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Which constituency?TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think there's been a week since the start of Jan that we or people near us haven't been phone polled.RepublicanTory said:
TSETheScreamingEagles said:I expect that Sheffield Hallam and Thanet South will be the two most polled constituencies in this election.
I am the third person, that i know of, out of a relatively small group of friends in just one village (Wingham) that have been polled in the last 3 weeks alone!!
I can only conclude that
1) The Lib Dems are worried they might lose here
2) Lab are confident are winning here.
Is their optimism justified?
I meant to ask you-you seem very confident that Labour isnt going to make strong gains in Yorkshire-do you still feel that way and if so why??0 -
May I mention who was the first to suggest that Clegg was in trouble?TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think there's been a week since the start of Jan that we or people near us haven't been phone polled.RepublicanTory said:
TSETheScreamingEagles said:I expect that Sheffield Hallam and Thanet South will be the two most polled constituencies in this election.
I am the third person, that i know of, out of a relatively small group of friends in just one village (Wingham) that have been polled in the last 3 weeks alone!!
I can only conclude that
1) The Lib Dems are worried they might lose here
2) Lab are confident are winning here.0 -
Mirror with a measured response to the budget....
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/5783195994957250560 -
You aren't on the coconut water as well are you?isam said:
ooh Almond Milk! I have just started on that its lovely!FrancisUrquhart said:Guardian readers will choke on their fair trade organic GM free museli and almond milk, when they first catch a glimpse of the front page...once they get past that, they will be ok though.
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The Times is a Tory rag though.steve_garner said:Tomorrow's Times editorial opines that it did not sound like the budget of a chancellor who expected it to be his last.
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Left wing rag
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 57s58 seconds ago
George Osborne hands out sweeteners to rich and £30BILLION cuts to the poor
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/budget-2015-george-osborne-hands-5360893 …0 -
YES!!!!FrancisUrquhart said:
You aren't on the coconut water as well are you?isam said:
ooh Almond Milk! I have just started on that its lovely!FrancisUrquhart said:Guardian readers will choke on their fair trade organic GM free museli and almond milk, when they first catch a glimpse of the front page...once they get past that, they will be ok though.
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Superb postnotme said:
It is nothing less than a jobs miracle. I regularly peruse over the monthly labour market survey stats produced within my county. Over the last eighteen months to two years ive seen the most extraordinary drops in unemployment. And within circles of friends i know, people who have been out of work for long before the crash, are now back working. In many cases it just wasnt worth people putting in the genuine effort to look for work, because the payback was minimal compared to benefits. One person specifically went back to work because of the financial implications of the bedroom tax, her son left home for university. She is now a store manager working fifty to sixty hours a week and absolutely loves it.Scott_P said:Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag57
Another one was getting a bit of earache so took up volunteering in a youth project (i wrote her a reference), she now works thirty hours for the organisation. Another one, out of work for some time, quite capable, likeable person, but he kind of just floated into the role of looking after the young children while his wife worked part time. He got rang up and asked if he wanted to come to an interview, for a company he hadnt even applied for. Again, he now works all the hours god sends.
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.
What I don't understand is how people think labour will be better for the country given the quite amazing record of the coalition on employment creation. In Hampshire I would think we are nearing zero unemployment. Wherever you look there are signs advertising job vacancies . In the construction industry industry anyone who has a skill is working if they want too . If this coalition is voted out by the British people in May they can leave office with their heads held high for a job well done . Who in 2010 with the disgusting mess left by labour would have predicted that the economic situation in 2015 would be as good as it is for the UK. Mr 5 million unemployed Blanchflower?
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Well the way the way the questions were worded it wasnt pro-tory!!Hengists_Gift said:If this Thanet South poll is Comres I wonder if its the Mail trying to rattle some cages?
Another point I forgot to mention: when asking who I voted for they asked by candidate name followed by party in the order of Labour, Liberal , UKIP , Conservative.
That is not alphabetical by either candidates name or Party-is that good practice?0 -
It was touted about on here that Tim Aker might not get much support from UKIP HQ in his quest to be MP for Thurrock...
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver · 1h1 hour ago
Tomorrow's @ThurrockGazette front page featuring @Tim_Aker and @Nigel_Farage #Thurrock pic.twitter.com/f6CqrtBRtj
Tim Aker MEP @Tim_Aker · 54m54 minutes ago
The @ThurrockGazette is, as always, essential reading pic.twitter.com/uFSW9azwKx
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You are my wife and I claim £5 !!isam said:
YES!!!!FrancisUrquhart said:
You aren't on the coconut water as well are you?isam said:
ooh Almond Milk! I have just started on that its lovely!FrancisUrquhart said:Guardian readers will choke on their fair trade organic GM free museli and almond milk, when they first catch a glimpse of the front page...once they get past that, they will be ok though.
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5 million is the number of low paid workers in poverty isn't it?currystar said:
Superb postnotme said:
It is nothing less than a jobs miracle. I regularly peruse over the monthly labour market survey stats produced within my county. Over the last eighteen months to two years ive seen the most extraordinary drops in unemployment. And within circles of friends i know, people who have been out of work for long before the crash, are now back working. In many cases it just wasnt worth people putting in the genuine effort to look for work, because the payback was minimal compared to benefits. One person specifically went back to work because of the financial implications of the bedroom tax, her son left home for university. She is now a store manager working fifty to sixty hours a week and absolutely loves it.Scott_P said:Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag57
Another one was getting a bit of earache so took up volunteering in a youth project (i wrote her a reference), she now works thirty hours for the organisation. Another one, out of work for some time, quite capable, likeable person, but he kind of just floated into the role of looking after the young children while his wife worked part time. He got rang up and asked if he wanted to come to an interview, for a company he hadnt even applied for. Again, he now works all the hours god sends.
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.
What I don't understand is how people think labour will be better for the country given the quite amazing record of the coalition on employment creation. In Hampshire I would think we are nearing zero unemployment. Wherever you look there are signs advertising job vacancies . In the construction industry industry anyone who has a skill is working if they want too . If this coalition is voted out by the British people in May they can leave office with their heads held high for a job well done . Who in 2010 with the disgusting mess left by labour would have predicted that the economic situation in 2015 would be as good as it is for the UK. Mr 5 million unemployed Blanchflower?0 -
He stood up without soiling himself?bigjohnowls said:
I was shocked how good Ed wasroserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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Not sure on this page whether roserees or the Mirror headline better illustrates the sheer desperation of the left. I think the Mirror edges it, though, and I'll leave them a message on my voicemail to congratulate them.bigjohnowls said:
The Times is a Tory rag though.steve_garner said:Tomorrow's Times editorial opines that it did not sound like the budget of a chancellor who expected it to be his last.
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Sheffield Hallam.RepublicanTory said:
Which constituency?TheScreamingEagles said:
I don't think there's been a week since the start of Jan that we or people near us haven't been phone polled.RepublicanTory said:
TSETheScreamingEagles said:I expect that Sheffield Hallam and Thanet South will be the two most polled constituencies in this election.
I am the third person, that i know of, out of a relatively small group of friends in just one village (Wingham) that have been polled in the last 3 weeks alone!!
I can only conclude that
1) The Lib Dems are worried they might lose here
2) Lab are confident are winning here.
Is their optimism justified?
I meant to ask you-you seem very confident that Labour isnt going to make strong gains in Yorkshire-do you still feel that way and if so why??
Yes, I'm confident that the Tories will hold on to most of their West Yorkshire seats.
The Tories have worked the area well, they have good MPs/candidates,
Some of the polling has been very good.
It was no coincidence that George Osborne name checked Yorkshire in the budget.0 -
I beiieve its normal (best) practice to rotate the order of the parties for each respondent so that none of the parties get preferential positioning.RepublicanTory said:
Well the way the way the questions were worded it wasnt pro-tory!!Hengists_Gift said:If this Thanet South poll is Comres I wonder if its the Mail trying to rattle some cages?
Another point I forgot to mention: when asking who I voted for they asked by candidate name followed by party in the order of Labour, Liberal , UKIP , Conservative.
That is not alphabetical by either candidates name or Party-is that good practice?
PS Just be thankful they didn't ask whether people thought that Mackinlay was a UKIP reject or not......0 -
I expect Con to gain Halifax and maybe Wakefield0
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Complete bollocks...there are not 5 million people in poverty in the UK, let alone 5 million low paid workers in poverty.bigjohnowls said:
5 million is the number of low paid workers in poverty isn't it?currystar said:
Superb postnotme said:
It is nothing less than a jobs miracle. I regularly peruse over the monthly labour market survey stats produced within my county. Over the last eighteen months to two years ive seen the most extraordinary drops in unemployment. And within circles of friends i know, people who have been out of work for long before the crash, are now back working. In many cases it just wasnt worth people putting in the genuine effort to look for work, because the payback was minimal compared to benefits. One person specifically went back to work because of the financial implications of the bedroom tax, her son left home for university. She is now a store manager working fifty to sixty hours a week and absolutely loves it.Scott_P said:Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag57
Another one was getting a bit of earache so took up volunteering in a youth project (i wrote her a reference), she now works thirty hours for the organisation. Another one, out of work for some time, quite capable, likeable person, but he kind of just floated into the role of looking after the young children while his wife worked part time. He got rang up and asked if he wanted to come to an interview, for a company he hadnt even applied for. Again, he now works all the hours god sends.
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.
What I don't understand is how people think labour will be better for the country given the quite amazing record of the coalition on employment creation. In Hampshire I would think we are nearing zero unemployment. Wherever you look there are signs advertising job vacancies . In the construction industry industry anyone who has a skill is working if they want too . If this coalition is voted out by the British people in May they can leave office with their heads held high for a job well done . Who in 2010 with the disgusting mess left by labour would have predicted that the economic situation in 2015 would be as good as it is for the UK. Mr 5 million unemployed Blanchflower?0 -
Where have all the people who were so concerned about the deficit and national debt under Labour gone?0
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Apparently no activists were going to go and help Aker
Tim Aker MEP @Tim_Aker
· Mar 17
Great to have had BBC @daily_politics reporting on the UKIP campaign here in #Thurrock. We can win here. http://youtu.be/Bp5JFFcUuW4?a
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Tonights YG EICIPM0
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Well that's how Labour are spinning it...TheWatcher said:
He stood up without soiling himself?bigjohnowls said:
I was shocked how good Ed wasroserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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I don't know how he finds the time, as he surely wouldn't trust an underling with such pickpocketing duties.isam said:
Hi, saw your post re quietness from Carswell... he is back on the tweets in the last hour but they are pro UKIP and anti Tory so I guess Farage must have nicked his phone againScrapheap_as_was said:No English team in the QF of the CL yet again - let Spurs in we've got 100% record of reaching them!
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Of course he will get support, Thurrock is probably No.3 on the list of potential UKIP wins in May.isam said:It was touted about on here that Tim Aker might not get much support from UKIP HQ in his quest to be MP for Thurrock...
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver · 1h1 hour ago
Tomorrow's @ThurrockGazette front page featuring @Tim_Aker and @Nigel_Farage #Thurrock pic.twitter.com/f6CqrtBRtj
Tim Aker MEP @Tim_Aker · 54m54 minutes ago
The @ThurrockGazette is, as always, essential reading pic.twitter.com/uFSW9azwKx0 -
Looks like a good time was had by all.
Nobody came to blows I hope?0 -
Or perhaps it was private polling for the Pub Landlord (aka that Fat Barsteward)?RepublicanTory said:
Well the way the way the questions were worded it wasnt pro-tory!!Hengists_Gift said:If this Thanet South poll is Comres I wonder if its the Mail trying to rattle some cages?
Another point I forgot to mention: when asking who I voted for they asked by candidate name followed by party in the order of Labour, Liberal , UKIP , Conservative.
That is not alphabetical by either candidates name or Party-is that good practice?0 -
With his knowledge of the shhhh secret Tory plan....sounded a bit David Ickle or Alex Jones.Ishmael_X said:
Well that's how Labour are spinning it...TheWatcher said:
He stood up without soiling himself?bigjohnowls said:
I was shocked how good Ed wasroserees64 said:Osborne looked very tired and strained today, must have been revising his speech over and over again. It was a lack-lustre performance. Miliband seem to grow in stature today, a bravura performance which was widely praised.He has been underestimated by all and sundry.
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Where's the poll?0
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@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%0
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Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%0
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Having been unemployed for over a year after the "crash" I can honestly say that I would rather be Low paid and employed than Unemployed.bigjohnowls said:
5 million is the number of low paid workers in poverty isn't it?currystar said:
Superb postnotme said:
It is nothing less than a jobs miracle. I regularly peruse over the monthly labour market survey stats produced within my county. Over the last eighteen months to two years ive seen the most extraordinary drops in unemployment. And within circles of friends i know, people who have been out of work for long before the crash, are now back working. In many cases it just wasnt worth people putting in the genuine effort to look for work, because the payback was minimal compared to benefits. One person specifically went back to work because of the financial implications of the bedroom tax, her son left home for university. She is now a store manager working fifty to sixty hours a week and absolutely loves it.Scott_P said:Spectator front page: Britain Is Working http://t.co/YajJQGag57
Another one was getting a bit of earache so took up volunteering in a youth project (i wrote her a reference), she now works thirty hours for the organisation. Another one, out of work for some time, quite capable, likeable person, but he kind of just floated into the role of looking after the young children while his wife worked part time. He got rang up and asked if he wanted to come to an interview, for a company he hadnt even applied for. Again, he now works all the hours god sends.
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.
What I don't understand is how people think labour will be better for the country given the quite amazing record of the coalition on employment creation. In Hampshire I would think we are nearing zero unemployment. Wherever you look there are signs advertising job vacancies . In the construction industry industry anyone who has a skill is working if they want too . If this coalition is voted out by the British people in May they can leave office with their heads held high for a job well done . Who in 2010 with the disgusting mess left by labour would have predicted that the economic situation in 2015 would be as good as it is for the UK. Mr 5 million unemployed Blanchflower?
If I get a pay rise on the 1st April my gross earnings will exceed what I earnt in 2006 for the time since then. Context-my wife is a nurse and earns MORE than me so I am no fat cat!!
Low pay isnt great but Unemployment is a whole lot worse.0 -
LOLIshmael_X said:
Not sure on this page whether roserees or the Mirror headline better illustrates the sheer desperation of the left. I think the Mirror edges it, though, and I'll leave them a message on my voicemail to congratulate them.bigjohnowls said:
The Times is a Tory rag though.steve_garner said:Tomorrow's Times editorial opines that it did not sound like the budget of a chancellor who expected it to be his last.
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3% swing back by May CON 36 LAB 31!!!!!!!0
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Three Lab leads on the bounce with YouGov...
Confirms #CrossbackMarch0 -
Who called it earlier? Somebody did....TheScreamingEagles said:Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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Good Lord! Next we will find out that you are a Guardian reader. I sense your inner LibDem trying to get out...isam said:
YES!!!!FrancisUrquhart said:
You aren't on the coconut water as well are you?isam said:
ooh Almond Milk! I have just started on that its lovely!FrancisUrquhart said:Guardian readers will choke on their fair trade organic GM free museli and almond milk, when they first catch a glimpse of the front page...once they get past that, they will be ok though.
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