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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pics from last night’s gathering
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some pics from last night’s gathering
Maybe because it was mid-week in a new venue but last night’s PB London Gathering didn’t attract the numbers that we have got used to. Still about 20 made the trip to a congenial pub close to Liverpool Street station for what turned out to be a really good evening.
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Sorry does that mean you don't want Labour to win or you do??
@robindbrant
looks like @TheSunNewspaper - unsurprisingly - heading towards endorsing @Conservatives if you're listening to @StigAbell on @SkyNewsBreak
No big changes in the odds on offer, UKIP shortening slightly and that is about it.
From a total of 157 constituency polls (80 Tory seats, 41 LD seats, 35 Labour and one Green), the Tories lose 45 seats and gain 9, Labour gain 52 seats and lose 17 (all of them scottish), the LD lose 20, UKIP gain 3 and the SNP gains 21.
In total the percentage changes of votes since the last election is CON -7%, LAB +0.5%, LD -12.5%, UKIP +13.5%, SNP/GRN +5%, that result is pretty much in line with the national polls with the noticeable exception that the LD retain far more votes at the expense of mostly the Tories.
Further more I broke down the constituency polls into regional swings.
The Tory to Labour swing in Tory held seats is by region and size:
London: 6%
E.Midlands: 6%
S.W. England : 6%
S.E. : 5.5%
N.W. :5.5%
W.Midlands: 4.5%
Yorkshire: 4.5%
East England: 4%
Wales : 3%
Scotland: -5%
N. England: Not enough polls.
The Tory to UKIP swing Tory held seats is by region and size:
London: 7.5%
E.Midlands: 11.5%
S.W. England : 11%
S.E. : 16%
N.W. :11%
W.Midlands: 11%
Yorkshire: 10.5%
East England: 13.5%
Wales :8%
Scotland: 0%
N. England: Not enough polls.
There were not any new constituency polls in LD seats( apart from scotland) so the numbers are the same with the Tories doing exceptionally badly in the S.E against them and Labour doing exceptionally good against the LD with double digit swings almost everywhere except the SE and the W.Midlands.
The new factor has been scotland with the SNP recording swings of 24% against Labour and 21% against the LD.
I also introduced a new element based again solely on the seats that have been polled, a 3.5% error margin in the constituency polls and established a best and worst case for each party using that margin of error.
CON Best case 293 seats.
CON Worst case 242 seats.
LAB Best case 318 seats.
LAB Worst case 246 seats.
SNP Best case 58 seats.
SNP Worst case 21 seats.
LD Best case 41 seats.
LD Worst case 15 seats.
UKIP Best case 17 seats.
UKIP worst case 1 seat.
Also take into account that the Tories and LD cannot be both at the upper range since the are competing in some seats, hence the best case for the Coalition is CON 293, LD 26 seats and the worst case is CON 242, LD 33 seats.
All my illusions are shattered.
It was done by ComRes
Did anything come together for a midlands drinkies the week before Broxtowe's day of decision?
Thanks for the analysis. It seems UNS is not dead (Scotland excluded). How the interparty swings all fit together though!
Another one was getting a bit of earache so took up volunteering in a youth project (i wrote her a reference), she now works thirty hours for the organisation. Another one, out of work for some time, quite capable, likeable person, but he kind of just floated into the role of looking after the young children while his wife worked part time. He got rang up and asked if he wanted to come to an interview, for a company he hadnt even applied for. Again, he now works all the hours god sends.
Welfare reform has truly had a massive positive impact on lives of many people.
I wonder is Chris has read the briefing notes yet
@DavidGauke: On @Channel4News earlier with Chris Leslie. He was asked 9 times how much Labour would cut spending or increase taxes in 2016-18. No answer.
I am the third person, that i know of, out of a relatively small group of friends in just one village (Wingham) that have been polled in the last 3 weeks alone!!
I imagine it will get like how it was in Newark where everyone is sick with being pestered and want the GE to come and go quickly.
The get tough approach, work capability tests, benefits sanctions, workfare were all things that the last government initiated, but have also been the focus of the current oppositions political fire. Its going to be tough to implement tough reforms, when even the mildest changes were opposed.
FFS, they thought that a £26k benefits cap (thats a cap, not a freeze, for the dimwitted on here) was wrong!
Trying to predict seat outcomes is like trying to rebuilt John Harrisons first sea clock.
http://collections.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/79139.html
There are now all kinds of springs and gears which react differently if party X does much better in region A than party Y in region B and Party Z in region C.
A simplified solution is to get the national swing to Labour, add to it about 1.5% and then subtract 40 seats from Labour to compensate for Scotland.
I can only conclude that
1) The Lib Dems are worried they might lose here
2) Lab are confident are winning here.
Have they said who the polling company was?
I imagine it will get like how it was in Newark where everyone is sick with being pestered and want the GE to come and go quickly.
I asked and it was Comres
I have asked my friends to let me know who polls them-they know i am a sad git who spends half my life lurking PB !! Sadly the other 2 didn't know.
I think you are probably right about polling fatigue-it may well explain why it has taken Comres a week to carry out this survey.
Is their optimism justified?
I meant to ask you-you seem very confident that Labour isnt going to make strong gains in Yorkshire-do you still feel that way and if so why??
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/578319599495725056
Mirror Politics @MirrorPolitics 57s58 seconds ago
George Osborne hands out sweeteners to rich and £30BILLION cuts to the poor
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/budget-2015-george-osborne-hands-5360893 …
What I don't understand is how people think labour will be better for the country given the quite amazing record of the coalition on employment creation. In Hampshire I would think we are nearing zero unemployment. Wherever you look there are signs advertising job vacancies . In the construction industry industry anyone who has a skill is working if they want too . If this coalition is voted out by the British people in May they can leave office with their heads held high for a job well done . Who in 2010 with the disgusting mess left by labour would have predicted that the economic situation in 2015 would be as good as it is for the UK. Mr 5 million unemployed Blanchflower?
Another point I forgot to mention: when asking who I voted for they asked by candidate name followed by party in the order of Labour, Liberal , UKIP , Conservative.
That is not alphabetical by either candidates name or Party-is that good practice?
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver · 1h1 hour ago
Tomorrow's @ThurrockGazette front page featuring @Tim_Aker and @Nigel_Farage #Thurrock pic.twitter.com/f6CqrtBRtj
Tim Aker MEP @Tim_Aker · 54m54 minutes ago
The @ThurrockGazette is, as always, essential reading pic.twitter.com/uFSW9azwKx
Yes, I'm confident that the Tories will hold on to most of their West Yorkshire seats.
The Tories have worked the area well, they have good MPs/candidates,
Some of the polling has been very good.
It was no coincidence that George Osborne name checked Yorkshire in the budget.
PS Just be thankful they didn't ask whether people thought that Mackinlay was a UKIP reject or not......
Tim Aker MEP @Tim_Aker
· Mar 17
Great to have had BBC @daily_politics reporting on the UKIP campaign here in #Thurrock. We can win here. http://youtu.be/Bp5JFFcUuW4?a
Nobody came to blows I hope?
If I get a pay rise on the 1st April my gross earnings will exceed what I earnt in 2006 for the time since then. Context-my wife is a nurse and earns MORE than me so I am no fat cat!!
Low pay isnt great but Unemployment is a whole lot worse.
Confirms #CrossbackMarch