politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are nearly twice as likely to be switching to LAB
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2010 LDs are nearly twice as likely to be switching to LAB in the battlegrounds as they are in Ashcroft’s national polls
I was on a train heading to London to speak at a conference when Lord Ashcroft’s latest CON-LAB battleground polling was published yesterday and have only now got round to looking at the detail.
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*cough*....base size?.......*cough*
It is funny how PB Tories are ready to accept all the undoubtedly bad news for Labour from Lord A's Scottish polling but then are in denial about his surveys in England.
If you don't know the answer, say so - no need to launch into a diatribe.....
Sky News' Economics Editor Ed Conway and Political Editor Faisal Islam give their predictions on Budget Bingo. – I’m sure PB's finest can add many more to the list.
http://news.sky.com/story/1446992/budget-bingo-predicting-osbornes-key-words
PBers should look to my humble ARSE - the greatest election predicator in the history of mankind and never knowingly undersold.
You predicting Ukip to lose their two seats and Thanet South not to have a Faragasm.
Electing Ed would be a dark day for the UK but in every cloud, etc etc.
@Alanbrooke - that's the ticket, keep em coming
If it's only higher for Labour then that would be the opposite of the increase in efficiency that DavidL is hoping for.
Tax relief on hard working second kitchens.
The clue lies with the 22% who voted Lib Dem last time. However much credit they get for instigating popular and even socially equitable policies their stock just keeps falling
The only available explanation is that the compassionate left have decided that having spent the last five years sleeping with dogs they are now so infected with flees there is only one party that can represent their values.
So Ed or George don't really matter. The big hearted British have no other choice.
The Ashcroft poll showed 14% of Labour voters were both satisfied with DC and preferred him to Ed Miliband.
On a constituency poll where Labour leads by 5% (say 40 to 35%) if the Tories can win over just half of the Labour voters who want and prefer Cameron, that should shift the result to about 37.8%-37.2% in the Tories favour. The same could be done with UKIP voters too.
So I'd only really panic where constituency polls Ashcroft show Labour ahead by 5% or more. But the Tories are still behind, and have a lot of work to do to turn it around.
"Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls."
The confusing word is 'moving'. Not since Steve Hilton coined 'compassionate conservatism' have I seen anything less moving
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/internet/entries/b2c6502f-7b54-4fde-9695-9ce0b304a7ba
"I think the Tories only real hope is to make this election ultra-presidential: stick leaflets through the door with big pictures saying; "Who do you want as Prime Minister? Ed Miliband or David Cameron? Your vote counts.""
I don't think that by election day there will be anyone unaware of that choice. I also don't think Cameron is sufficiently loved for that to be very effective. I think they would be better off trying to make Cameron seem interesting.Something I have to admit I struggle with
It's 3am.
President Obama is calling.
Who do you want to answer the phone?
(Can't remember who that was done to, or whether it worked - but it stuck in my mind!)
Edit -- it was Hillary:
http://www.salon.com/2008/03/06/commander_in_chief_2/
May work better for an incumbent.....
Excitement is akin to Spurs sitting 4th with 1 game left to go ... George like us, is in control of his destiny...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/tottenham-hotspur/10804881/2006-remembered-The-food-poisoning-bug-that-cost-Tottenham-Hotspur-their-Champions-League-dream.html
Today is a very important day in the election and unfortunately I am stuck in Court. Today Osborne needs to win over a significant part of the unusually large number of those yet to make up their minds. If he doesn't I fear it is all over for the Tories.
At the time of the debate furore it seemed as if Labour was desperate for a game changer. I didn't understand that then (since they were winning) and I don't now. It is the Tories that need a game changer and today is probably their best shot.
He needs not only to demonstrate the consequences of his excellent stewardship and promise some goodies but to make this election about the management of the economy front and central. So expect several references to risks and dark clouds as well as boasting. It is not going to be an easy task. It is by far the most important speech of Osbo's political career.
http://m.bbc.com/news/health-31925449
Tony Blair was interesting. He was the politician I liked best and from three years before he became leader. In all respects-not least the contrast with Thatcher-he was the ideal.
I thought it with minor reservations up until the time he left. Now I'd put him in the worst half dozen ever.
A useful object lesson. It never pays to be too definitive. You never know. One day I might find something to admire about Cameron as you might about Osborne
'For others like me not au fait with the latest:"
http://m.bbc.com/news/health-31925449
Jesus! Do you think it's too late?
Liberal Democrats who completed negotiations on the budget measures on Friday do not believe the budget itself contains measure big enough to transform the political landscape, and have insisted there is no giveaway flavour to the statement.
However, with relations between the coalition parties turning toward a war footing even inside the Treasury, and the Liberal Democrats have no veto over what the chancellor says in his budget speech, as opposed to the specific measures that are announced.
It is worth remembering that they will have had a redline on any measures, so much of GO's speech is likely to be jam tomorrow, rather than today. That will take careful framing, though he can be confident that initially he will get very good headlines - unless he makes a very obvious mistake.
To be noted that Conservative defence against Labour in 20 seats is less than a thousand votes or just over.
But Iraq did it for me.
Now tell me Grant Shapps is your favourite politician :-)
The election starts here.
It's curious to see no movement since October, given that Ashcroft polls generally have swung to the Conservatives since then.
I'm hoping the former!!
That is astonishing really.
It's one poll, amongst dozens. There's margin for error, and the vote is some time away still. It should be considered, but not treated as The Truth, or some sort of Delphic utterance.
"Now tell me Grant Shapps is your favourite politician :-)"
Everytime I see him I'm reminded of this....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZgwNutwK0Y
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11478759/When-George-Osborne-stands-up-to-deliver-his-Budget-this-is-what-he-should-say.html
The BBC is dumbing down its web content to use the same layout for tablet, phone and computer. It started with the appalling changes to i-player and was only a matter of time till they started rolling it out to the main news site.
Absolutely disgrace if you ask me and I doubt I was the only one feeding this back. I'm also not surprised such feedback has been ignored. Web designers have always been about style over usability since the first extended codes started letting them make sites which were unusable in the late 90s.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/snp-councillors-suspended-burning-copies-5352635
Shocking 1992 type errors for them.
They returned weeks ago.
I flicked through last night's thread briefly and it appears that some posters were wondering why so few Rotherham families were claiming compensation. This must mean it was all exaggerated.
Middle class logic in trumps.
A month ago, I listened to a Rotherham mother of an abused girl on Radio 5 Live. She was trying to explain to a bemused interviewer that the families do not trust the "authorities" even now. Trust has to be earned, and those who watched Roger Stone (the former leader of Rotherham Council) giving evidence to the parliamentary committee a couple of weeks ago will know why.
He was still in denial (as the Casey report showed).
If you were a mother, who'd called the police, provided them with the evidence in a sealed plastic bag, been fobbed off and told later that the bag of evidence had been 'lost', would you have any confidence?
These aren't all articulate, middle class families with sharp elbows. These are families who have seen first hand how "authority' treats them.
Roger, I can understand. For him, real life comes out of a lens or from a party political broadcast. Fox, I can understand, as doctors are trusted and he'd be shocked by how much distrust many people have for their 'betters'.
This is one reason for the Tories' problem with toxicity. It's a tribal thing I'm still guilty of, despite moving 'up' in life. You'll find this distrust in the historical paedophile investigations of the police and Westminster too, even though the middle-class 'opinion-formers' in the media are more sympathetic to this.
Rotherham though?
Last night's thread shows they are right to be wary.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nicola-sturgeon-lashes-out-councillors-who-burned-smith-commission-report-1477877
Also Berwick isn't fully in there as I can't remember what stake my Dad has on for me on the Lib Dems (2-1). It's green anyhow.
You can't hold feet to the fire and not expect anything to get burnt.
I'm a Tory & take some fairly practical steps to help in the limited way that I can.
Well the polls were wrong in Israel. More than likely wrong here too.
A very small PB gathering at the Shooting Star last night, and left early.
I think the Conservatives need to be ahead by c.3% in the UK, for Cameron to remain in office.
In what way does that meet your (new) definition of consensual?
The last polls had:
Netanyahu bloc (Con) 56
Herzog bloc (Lab) 42
Kulanu (LibDeb) 9 NB Swings both ways
Joint Arab (SNP) 13 NB Won't support Netanyahu but might provide S&C to Herzog
The exit polls showed:
Netanyahu bloc (Con) 54
Herzog bloc (Lab) 43
Kulanu (LibDeb) 10 NB Swings both ways
Joint Arab (SNP) 13 NB Won't support Netanyahu but might provide S&C to Herzog
So Con where a bit worse and Lab and LibDem slightly better.
The actual results this morning with 97% counted show:
Netanyahu bloc (Con) 57-58
Herzog bloc (Lab) 40
Kulanu (LibDeb) 9 NB Swings both ways
Joint Arab (SNP) 14 NB Won't support Netanyahu but might provide S&C to Herzog
So Con where a lot better and Lab a lot worse (and SNP a bit better)
LibDem will almost certainly support Con to give majority coalition.
Draw your own conclusions. But it looks to me as if there were many shy Netanhayu voters who lied to the pollsters and even lied in the exit polls. There were three exit polls for three TV channels and they all showed similar results.
IF the same happens here and there are still shy Tories in the polls then
a) we should add 1-2% to the Con share and subtract 2% from the Lab share
b) we should ignore the exit polls on the night
c) we should perhaps expect the SNP to do a little better than the polls show.
I corrected your misinterpretation, you now know clearly what I meant.
Why do you want a pedantic argument over a resolved issue?
Pointless.
He talks about broken promises and concludes " That's why everyone knows the only way the Tories can make their sums add up is by breaking their promises again — raising VAT and putting our NHS at risk."
The interesting word there is VAT. I wonder if Labour will rule out a VAT increase (not progressive) and then press the Tories to give a similar commitment with no weasel words like "we do not plan etc etc"?
But no, as usability is such a low consideration, other aspects of tech become infected and eventually it will all come tumbling down like the death of PC Gaming.
Comes out on the 31st, if you pre-order you get the e-book version for free. [Disclaimer: I do know the author. And the publisher].
Rotherham has 260,000 people. The idea that 0.5% of that population have been sexually abused over the course of 15 years is not at all far-fetched.