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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s inevitable under FPTP that many will vote AGAINST a party not FOR a likely loser
Scotland clearly is a special situation and you can understand why those that voted NO should be worried about the SNP picking up 40+ of the 59 Scottish seats and being able to lever their position in a hung parliament.
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http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/can-the-greens-win-in-bristol-west/
Betting PostBacked Massa at 3.1 for a podium with Betfair. Reasoning and other cunning thoughts here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/australia-pre-race.html
Yousaf himself has wife of white Scottish heritage and like most Asians in Scotland takes part in wider civic society.
A strong economic foundation
Higher living standards for working families
An NHS with the time to care
Controls on immigration
A country where the next generation can do better than the last
---------------------------
Hmmm.....
1) Built on sand like Gordo-nomics*?
2) How you going to achieve that...magic?
3) Like Stafford?
4) Like last time? And of course he can't, because he wants to be even more signed up to EU and the pros / cons of that, which includes free movement of labour.
5) Again, how are you going to achieve that...magic?
* Not Osborne-onomics isn't exactly that much different
There have never been race problems in Scotland. Indeed in large parts of Glasgow, the Asian community members were more acceptable to the locals than those white British who happened to come from the other side of the religious divide (Rangers v Celtic).
The SNP boy Yousaf is one of the most popular and prominent Asian politicians in Scotland and only the other day was filmed larking about with Kazia Dugdale and Ruth Davidson to promote red nose day. The UKIP MEP Coburn is totally out of line and deserves all the criticism being heaped upon him.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/sex/11472374/Belle-de-Jour-author-Brooke-Magnanti-insists-she-was-a-call-girl.html
Most people threatened to sue for any suggestion that they were a prozzie or anything to do with one !!!!
...........goes back to sleep.
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/03/16/where-the-bodies-are-buried
So many questions...
The strong buzz is that Bibi will be out of power while we PBers will be drinking (and eating?) in The Shooting Star, on the evening of 17th March.
.....goes back to sleep again
There are also, I think, many more seats which become three-way marginals because of the rise of UKIP.
I tend to think that this election will see the lowest level of tactical voting for some time, and it will be the election afterwards, when the dust has settled on the upheaval, that will see a resurgence of tactical voting.
As my tutor would have observed 'source'?
In any case, a 5 year coalition is hardly analogous to over three times as long single party rule.
The vast majority of the electorate are not as tuned into politics as we are - insofar as they think about the election, it is likely to be nearer the time and largely based on general impressions...
OT, just caught up with a deeply unimpressive 'The Great European Disaster Movie' - there is an intelligent film to be made about the risks of leaving the EU (a bit like Scotland leaving the Union, probably a bad idea, but they'd muddle through, poorer but wiser) - this wasn't it. If this is the best the pro-EU camp can mount, the game is up.
http://labourlist.org/2015/03/full-text-milibands-speech-to-labours-spring-event/
Reads like the last 20 relaunches, big speeches.
In contrast, here is the 97 one,
http://cache.martintod.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/1997_pledge_card_back.jpg
It is much more direct. Not oh look waffle waffle big picture waffle, no solution. It is cut class size to x, get 250,000 into work, etc.
"With 20,000 more nurses, 8,000 more doctors, 5,000 more care workers, and 3,000 more midwives. Paid for by a mansion tax on properties worth over £2 million to support our time to care fund."
Thought Murphy had laid claim to the cash.
Wasn't the NHS with its wonderful dancing, lovely dancing nurses, the lovely dancing Labour voting nurses the envy of the world then?
"Despite the rise over the past decade Scotland still has a relatively small immigrant population relative to England, especially London.
About 7% of Scots were born outside the UK, whereas the figure for the rest of the UK is almost 14%."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25910947
48. Leeds North West
49. Ceredigion
50. North East Fife
51. Yeovil
52. North Norfolk
53. Westmorland & Lonsdale
54. Bath
55. Sheffield, Hallam
56. Ross, Skye & Lochaber
57. Orkney & Shetland
Has two kitchens for all?
The basics of the story are here, as well as some pointed comment, by no means all from Rev. Campbell:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/scottish-labours-new-policy-vote-tory/
http://wingsoverscotland.com/to-thine-own-self-be-true/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-31887193
Is Field standing in May or not?
52. North Norfolk
53. Westmorland & Lonsdale
Are the safest three I reckon
Less than 10?
I would agree with Pulpstar on Yeovil, North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale, but then what?
BBC News -Birkenhead MP Frank Field in hospital after collapse http://bbc.in/1DkheOx sad to hear, hope he soon recovers - man of integrity
One of the decent ones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birkenhead_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
Hope he gets well soon; the HofC needs more MPs who speak their mind.
"And we will never sacrifice our tolerance, our openness, who we are as a country."
Ed should sack his speechwriter. I'm still trying to work this one out.
HoC would be a much better place with all parties having people like him, rather than yet another "placeman".
I really need to visit Scotland at some point as I am ashamed to admit I have never been...
2011 Conservatives won North Norfolk district council.
2013 three way tie in the county council elections.
2014 LDs placed third locally in the EU election .(LD 4000 vs Green 2000)
The local greens fought almost every ward in 2011, so they should be well placed to benefit from the surge shown in the national polls.
1. Experience. There is clearly a large group of voters who felt conned in 2010, having voted Lib Dem in order to keep the Tories out, only to then see the Lib Dems usher the Conservatives in. Why do it again this time?
2. Polling. This is ambiguous as constituency-level voting suggests the Lib Dems are holding up ok in many seats but there are clearly some where they aren't and the national vote shares are not picking up either any recovery or the kind of levels consistent with a decent performance in their strongest seats; if anything, they're still heading south.
3. The rise of UKIP, the SNP and Greens. None of these parties would be experiencing any rise if voters were voting tactically based on the 2010 outcome, and rather than second-guess how the land might lie now, if the figures are contentious, I'd expect most voters to go with their first choice.
4. "They're all the same". If they're all the same, it doesn't really matter which one wins, so why not express support for your favoured party? After all, the party approval ratings are poor and Clegg and Miliband - potentially the biggest beneficiaries of tactical voting - have relatively poor scores with their own voters, never mind those of the other party.
I simply don't think there's the level of interest or motivation among most voters to care enough to vote X in order to stop Y when what they really would like is Z, and Z has a candidate.
EDIT
I'm expecting the LDs to have a worse election result than their worst fears, so I would prefer to bet against LDs rather than for them.
I would not bet against them in Eastleigh.
The numbers for 2011/12 were
Scotland
5,389 reported incidents for a population of 3.1 million. That is 1.7 incidents per 1000 people.
England and Wales
51,187 reported incidents for a population of 55.7 million. That is 0.92 incidents per 1000 people.
So the rate of racist incidents as a proportion of the population in Scotland is nearly twice that of England and Wales.
Or that the data in fact it include race as a surrogate for religion in specific terms of the Irish dimension which you do mention in a different context. So, for instance, one woiuld get a spike every time Rangers play Celtic.
Or some combination.
Yet the political narrative is very different north and south: vide UKIP, vide SNP - very different levels of support.
PS how did you do at Cheltenham this year, I actually came out just ahead so not bad at all.
Higher living standards for working families - is the same as point one. They are inextricably linked. Unless Labour want to tax families where people aren't working?
An NHS with time to care - probably just means a new clock on every ward...
Controls on immigration - well, that will make a fecking change guys! There is a reason why your workers aren't to talk about immigration on the doorstep. Or in their leader's conference speech.
A country where the next generation can do better than the last. Hmmm...that is going to require a Labour government to take on globalisation. And win. Ain't going to happen without a drastic change - a drastic reduction in the role of the state, with more falling through the cracks. And Labour doesn't have the stomach to do that.
So yeah - it's bollocks, Ed.
What stopped the Tories winning a Majoresque majority in the last election was Libdems winning in historically safe Tory seats across the south due to the left uniting behind them. The reds & trots didn't vote tactically for the Libdems to put the Tories in power and won't be back, and no pointing out that the electoral arithmetic gave the Libdems little choice will make any difference, as far as such people are concerned Libdem = Yellow Tories.
And that within 15 minutes of announcement @FalseFlag and @luckyguy are speculating that he was poisoned by the Americans or the Ukranians or both
In 2012/13 this fell to 4,628 or 0.87 per 1000.
It is not this figure which matters. A higher number could indicate a more serious attitude to racist incidents and a lower number mean the problem is being ignored.
I'm not Asian so I can't comment on the experience for a Scottish Asian person, racism needs to be dealt with, it may or may not be. However, the higher level of integration and lack of ghettos is quite significant and easily apparent even to a non-Asian Scot.
But if you want a dead cert banker cert with the yellow peril, that would be it.
The basis for the aggrevated crime stats collection is very different Scotland and RoUK and the Scottish figures since the advent of Police Scotland and Croiwn Office reporting on a national basis generally regarded as more comprehensive by a factor of three or more. Another project I worked on recently.
http://gawker.com/cia-source-putin-has-the-flu-1691376175
That said...out canvassing in Torbay today and found a former LibDem activist who is now viscerally against them.
So rather than the Nats "getting" to Humza first, it is most likely he just found his natural political home.
Incidentally, how are the emigration plans progressing ?
1. Doesn't say who they are
2. Is pretty amateurish - so if it is an astroturf it's pretty miserable growth
3. Still 'under construction' getting on a month later ...
I have them holding both seats, but by under 5,000 votes each.
A strong economic foundation.
Even if it wasn't Labour with £100 billion pa deficit and £1.5trillion debt such a claim is hard to justify
Improve living standards for working families.
A foolish commitment given we currently have abnormally low oil prices and at some point interest rates will have to rise. Both will fuel inflation WIth uncontrolled immigrant labour still flooding the employment market there will be little pressure for earnings to rise.
Using a "mansion tax" to add 20,000 nurses, 8,000 doctors, 5,000 care workers and 3,000 midwives to NHS staff.
They do say Labour are economically innumerate and here's the proof
Immigration control.
A brazen lie. They propose welfare control in the guise of immigration control. As many have pointed out cutting benefits will not deter the vast majority of immigrants. They are coming here looking for work not just handouts
Reducing university tuition fees from £9,000 to £6,000.
Presumably Labour want to see the reduction in the number of university places for British kids?
However your link itself points out
''In another (2004) article, Michael Lind also wrote [45]
Neoconservatism... originated in the 1970s as a movement of anti-Soviet liberals and social democrats in the tradition of Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Humphrey and Henry ('Scoop') Jackson, many of whom preferred to call themselves 'paleoliberals.' [After the end of the Cold War]... many 'paleoliberals' drifted back to the Democratic center... Today's neocons are a shrunken remnant of the original broad neocon coalition. Nevertheless, the origins of their ideology on the left are still apparent. The fact that most of the younger neocons were never on the left is irrelevant; they are the intellectual (and, in the case of William Kristol and John Podhoretz, the literal) heirs of older ex-leftists.''
In terms of for instance Bush, well all the Bushes, they are not particularly on the right of the GOP when it comes to social issues. Thats why Bush Snr lost the nomination to Reagan.
If they don't hold Westmorland it means there is no personal vote for anyone anywhere and the related contingency is big enough that they won't hold ANY seats.
Just a question, and don't take it personally, but why would anyone so committed to an independent Scotland want to emigrate?
I was there when I was a student. It's not Brighton Pavilion, and the students of Bristol University are not as left-wing.
It's a demographically diverse seat, with plenty of professionals and wealthy homeowners, and I expect that whilst the Greens will do will, enough Tories will vote Lib Dem to keep Williams ahead. He'll probably hold by around 1,000 (over Labour) on 32-34% of the vote.
I like that....
We have had no Westmorland constituency polls to my knowledge. Just because Tim Farron has a high-profile, and is locally popular, doesn't make him a dead cert.
This constituency was Conservative up until 2005. It could become so again. Winchester was just as "safe" for the Lib Dems from 1997-2005, and they still lost it heavily in the 2010GE. And that was with the Cleggasm. Oxford West & Abingdon, Newbury, Montgomeryshire, Guildford.. they almost lost St. Ives. Plenty more have reverted back to the blues.
Don't get me wrong: I think he will hold by 4,000-5,000. Maybe even 6,000. But I wouldn't dream of putting the mortgage on it. I just don't know (for sure) how the Lib Dems will perform this year.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/vladimir-putin/11471579/Vladimir-Putins-girlfriend-has-given-birth.html
(edit) story seems to be a couple of days old, so maybe already discredited.
The point of my posting was to counter Eastersoss's claims that there 'have never been race problems in Scotland'. This is clearly untrue as the numbers - even when you quite rightly corrected them - are still comparable with England and Wales.
Racism is a problem equally in all parts of the UK. Trying to claim that one nation doesn't have a problem seems to me to be entirely the wrong way to handle it.
Your call, but you said it yourself: you "think". But we just don't know.
(P.S. That's not to say I wouldn't bet some on the LDs retaining this seat. Just not at 1/12 on)
Sorry... have to head out. Catch you later.