1. Spurs season could end tomorrow. 2. ICM on Monday. Big deal if tory lead repeated ... or not. 3. Budget on Weds.
Squeaky bum time in scrap towers.
Leicester City's season ended today. If we cannot beat a dire team like Hull down to 10 men, then we are down. For the first time today the players did not seem to be behind the manager. Time to go Nigel.
Had 90 minutes;' phone canvassing, which is in some ways more fun because you don't get the visual cues and can't predict what you'll hear. Had one chap down as "doubtful" - he said the thing that bothers him most is the story about "that Top Gear bloke". What did I think about that, eh?
Er. "I'm not a fan of Mr Clarkson to be honest, and if he really thumped someone..."
"That's right! Got to have rules even for the famous. But you politicians all suck up to people like him."
Tory protesters outside today's Labour conference wearing Alex Salmond masks backing up Cameron's repeated claim at PMQs about Labour and Salmond's coat tails seems to be the only tactic the Tories have left,apart from the daily bullying of Ed Miliband. I can't see this having much if any effect as I guess if you asked most people if they preferred a public NHS without prescription charges,a free public education system without fees and free care of the elderly,they might jump at the chance of emulating Scotland rather than scream in fear as the Tories seem to hope.
Had 90 minutes;' phone canvassing, which is in some ways more fun because you don't get the visual cues and can't predict what you'll hear. Had one chap down as "doubtful" - he said the thing that bothers him most is the story about "that Top Gear bloke". What did I think about that, eh?
Er. "I'm not a fan of Mr Clarkson to be honest, and if he really thumped someone..."
"That's right! Got to have rules even for the famous. But you politicians all suck up to people like him."
"But..."
"No! I'm not voting!" (hangs up)
Can't win 'em all, eh?
But that nice Mr Cameron supports Mr. Clarkson
As do about a million peoples' signatures on a petition.
1. Spurs season could end tomorrow. 2. ICM on Monday. Big deal if tory lead repeated ... or not. 3. Budget on Weds.
Squeaky bum time in scrap towers.
Leicester City's season ended today. If we cannot beat a dire team like Hull down to 10 men, then we are down. For the first time today the players did not seem to be behind the manager. Time to go Nigel.
But you can share my joy at Burnley tonight. Fantastic result against Man C
Had 90 minutes;' phone canvassing, which is in some ways more fun because you don't get the visual cues and can't predict what you'll hear. Had one chap down as "doubtful" - he said the thing that bothers him most is the story about "that Top Gear bloke". What did I think about that, eh?
Er. "I'm not a fan of Mr Clarkson to be honest, and if he really thumped someone..."
"That's right! Got to have rules even for the famous. But you politicians all suck up to people like him."
"But..."
"No! I'm not voting!" (hangs up)
Can't win 'em all, eh?
But that nice Mr Cameron supports Mr. Clarkson
Don't you normally ask people to provide links to contentious claims?
Tory protesters outside today's Labour conference wearing Alex Salmond masks backing up Cameron's repeated claim at PMQs about Labour and Salmond's coat tails seems to be the only tactic the Tories have left,apart from the daily bullying of Ed Miliband. I can't see this having much if any effect as I guess if you asked most people if they preferred a public NHS without prescription charges,a free public education system without fees and free care of the elderly,they might jump at the chance of emulating Scotland rather than scream in fear as the Tories seem to hope.
Sunils ELBOW must be in the balance as to who leads.
Surely Tories can't blow CROSSOVER (again).
I think Sunil said yesterday (before today's 2 polls) that the Tories had something like a 0.6% lead in ELBOW for the week. If Labour lead in YouGov, they might just inch ahead after today's 2-point leads are inputted?
Sunils ELBOW must be in the balance as to who leads.
Surely Tories can't blow CROSSOVER (again).
We're on tenterhooks.
In truth, even if the Tories finish ahead by say 0.2%, you can't say Crossover has taken place when it's down to decimal points. I think the two parties are at parity on 33% each.
The one thing that surprises me is that UKIP are rock-solid on 15%.
Sunils ELBOW must be in the balance as to who leads.
Surely Tories can't blow CROSSOVER (again).
We're on tenterhooks.
In truth, even if the Tories finish ahead by say 0.2%, you can't say Crossover has taken place when it's down to decimal points. I think the two parties are at parity on 33% each.
I assumed that it was Chelsea, City and then 2 from 3 from United, Arsenal and Liverpool and frankly I was getting seriously nervous but the mighty Burnley might just have made it 3 from 4. I like those odds better although things are clearly far from right at OT.
1. Spurs season could end tomorrow. 2. ICM on Monday. Big deal if tory lead repeated ... or not. 3. Budget on Weds.
Squeaky bum time in scrap towers.
Leicester City's season ended today. If we cannot beat a dire team like Hull down to 10 men, then we are down. For the first time today the players did not seem to be behind the manager. Time to go Nigel.
But you can share my joy at Burnley tonight. Fantastic result against Man C
I do actually. Of the teams that I have seen at Leicester, Burnley were the best of the lower half in terms of cohesiveness and hunger. I would be happy for them to stay up. If Vokes and Ings had been fitter at the start of the season then I think a comfortable mid table position would have been possible.
Sunils ELBOW must be in the balance as to who leads.
Surely Tories can't blow CROSSOVER (again).
I think Sunil said yesterday (before today's 2 polls) that the Tories had something like a 0.6% lead in ELBOW for the week. If Labour lead in YouGov, they might just inch ahead after today's 2-point leads are inputted?
This seems to be how the polls have been behaving recently, the Tory/Labour gap narrows and then widens, but not to as much as before. This is following the trend. I reckon the Tories are still very slightly ahead on a 20-poll average but it's not a surprise to see them fall back a bit.
But these are infinitesimal leads, well within MOE.
It's an interesting thought. It does make you wonder though. Only half the British electorate expect Cameron or Miliband to be PM after the election. I hope there were an awful lot of 'don't knows.'
Sunils ELBOW must be in the balance as to who leads.
Surely Tories can't blow CROSSOVER (again).
I think Sunil said yesterday (before today's 2 polls) that the Tories had something like a 0.6% lead in ELBOW for the week. If Labour lead in YouGov, they might just inch ahead after today's 2-point leads are inputted?
This seems to be how the polls have been behaving recently, the Tory/Labour gap narrows and then widens, but not to as much as before. This is following the trend. I reckon the Tories are still very slightly ahead on a 20-poll average but it's not a surprise to see them fall back a bit.
But these are infinitesimal leads, well within MOE.
I assumed that it was Chelsea, City and then 2 from 3 from United, Arsenal and Liverpool and frankly I was getting seriously nervous but the mighty Burnley might just have made it 3 from 4. I like those odds better although things are clearly far from right at OT.
Things are much more interesting at the top of the Championship. Bournemouth are on fire.
They had a very strong finish to last season so I backed them at 20/1 to go up as champions. Fingers crossed.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I assumed that it was Chelsea, City and then 2 from 3 from United, Arsenal and Liverpool and frankly I was getting seriously nervous but the mighty Burnley might just have made it 3 from 4. I like those odds better although things are clearly far from right at OT.
Things are much more interesting at the top of the Championship. Bournemouth are on fire.
They had a very strong finish to last season so I backed them at 20/1 to go up as champions. Fingers crossed.
Wise of a Leicester fan to be keeping a close eye on the Championship!!
For those, like OGH, who believe the betting markets are too optimistic as regards the Tories' prospects, Spreadex's GE Seats spread for the Blue team is currently 3 seats higher than Sporting's, i.e. 285 - 291 seats.
Then again 295 looks a VERY big ask fro Labour when you consider their Scottish issues - it'd have to mean a slightly disappointing night for the SNP and a terrible night for the Tories.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Then again 295 looks a VERY big ask fro Labour when you consider their Scottish issues - it'd have to mean a slightly disappointing night for the SNP and a terrible night for the Tories.
Terrible night for the Tories?
How would you define terrible I think 270 but that is not terrible compared to 1997. 2001 and 2005
I assumed that it was Chelsea, City and then 2 from 3 from United, Arsenal and Liverpool and frankly I was getting seriously nervous but the mighty Burnley might just have made it 3 from 4. I like those odds better although things are clearly far from right at OT.
Things are much more interesting at the top of the Championship. Bournemouth are on fire.
They had a very strong finish to last season so I backed them at 20/1 to go up as champions. Fingers crossed.
Wise of a Leicester fan to be keeping a close eye on the Championship!!
It is now inevitable. With 10 games to go we need to win 5. We have won four so far this season.
I would rather play QPR and Sunderland next year than Burnley, Bournemouth or Middlesborough.
1. Spurs season could end tomorrow. 2. ICM on Monday. Big deal if tory lead repeated ... or not. 3. Budget on Weds.
Squeaky bum time in scrap towers.
Leicester City's season ended today. If we cannot beat a dire team like Hull down to 10 men, then we are down. For the first time today the players did not seem to be behind the manager. Time to go Nigel.
But you can share my joy at Burnley tonight. Fantastic result against Man C
Yes, brilliant.
Backed Boyd FGS at 35/1 on BF and a great result for the Arsenal too
1. Spurs season could end tomorrow. 2. ICM on Monday. Big deal if tory lead repeated ... or not. 3. Budget on Weds.
Squeaky bum time in scrap towers.
Leicester City's season ended today. If we cannot beat a dire team like Hull down to 10 men, then we are down. For the first time today the players did not seem to be behind the manager. Time to go Nigel.
But you can share my joy at Burnley tonight. Fantastic result against Man C
Yes, brilliant.
Backed Boyd FGS at 35/1 on BF and a great result for the Arsenal too
Haha who laid him at 35-1, he'd scored 4 goals previously. Even with the expected win for Man City 35-1 is crazy.
Well done to your system for picking it out, and well done
I doubt Falcao would be 35-1 FGS for Man U vs Real Madrid ;p
Mr Cameron has lower numbers than the Conservative Party +27 / -47%
EDIT All the leaders are less well thought of than the parties they lead! (excluding SNP)
Those are horrid numbers for the Lib Dems
Having seen the losses at council elections the last few years and in the Euros, I do wonder whether incumbency and personal votes will be enough to save more than a dozen LDs.
1. Spurs season could end tomorrow. 2. ICM on Monday. Big deal if tory lead repeated ... or not. 3. Budget on Weds.
Squeaky bum time in scrap towers.
Leicester City's season ended today. If we cannot beat a dire team like Hull down to 10 men, then we are down. For the first time today the players did not seem to be behind the manager. Time to go Nigel.
But you can share my joy at Burnley tonight. Fantastic result against Man C
Yes, brilliant.
Backed Boyd FGS at 35/1 on BF and a great result for the Arsenal too
Haha who laid him at 35-1, he'd scored 4 goals previously. Even with the expected win for Man City 35-1 is crazy.
Well done to your system for picking it out, and well done
I doubt Falcao would be 35-1 FGS for Man U vs Real Madrid ;p
Cheers... just checked & actually it was matched at 39/1, even better!
I back more than one per game though I must confess, but a nice winner after a horrid week. Laid Aguero anytime at Evens so got away with that late penalty shout too, phew
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
The Lib Dems will soon be more like Accrington Stanley as in the advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
Mr Cameron has lower numbers than the Conservative Party +27 / -47%
EDIT All the leaders are less well thought of than the parties they lead! (excluding SNP)
Those are horrid numbers for the Lib Dems
Having seen the losses at council elections the last few years and in the Euros, I do wonder whether incumbency and personal votes will be enough to save more than a dozen LDs.
The odd thing about the LD numbers is that their 'would consider voting for' number (with YouGov) was in line with UKIP/Green ~25%. Lab/Con were ~42%.
UKIP heaven. 'liblabcon we told you so we told you so....
Short of war, there will not be a Lab-Con coalition, because it would be manna from heaven for both UKIP and the LibDems.
OK I also think its unlikely this time, but suppose we get the result that the polls are predicting and everybody does what they are expected to do. We get a minority Lab or Con government which rapidly becomes unpopular - maybe for mismanaging the economy (Lab) or cutting too deeply (Con) - they get voted down and there's another election with a very similar result, maybe Lab / Con swap places. At some point someone has to govern, grand coalitions exist elsewhere what's so unique about the UK? I'm glad if politicians are thinking of all the possible scenarios, much better than panicking as the election results come in. As for fixed term parliaments, I'm sure that could be got around if it was necessary.
Would be nice to see the numbers on how each party fared in the weeks polls compared to the previous poll with that company.. so there would be 5 YouGovs, one IPSOS etc
It would be interesting to know exactly what the public's problem with the Lib Dems is. The most obvious thing is the idea that they have sold their principles for power. Yougov had a good spot recently showing where the ublic put politicians on the political spectrum. Cameron is well to the right and Miliband slightly less to the left. Blair was seen as marginally right of centre. The strange thing with Cleggis that he has zig-zagged about. From slightly to the left to slightly to the right and now back marginally on the left.
So either the public think Clegg is to the right and deceived them in 2010 or they think he's slightly to the left and been completely ineffectual at getting his way in the government. Neither looks very good.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
The Lib Dems will soon be more like Accrington Stanley as in the advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
No, on fieldwork dates the last Sun/YouGov gets in the way. You do appear to be clutching at straws "5 Labour leads in a row" indeed, back in Dec/Jan that was commonplace. Although it looks like the last time this happened was actually a month ago,
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 12m12 minutes ago CON & LAB level pegging in ENGLAND in Opinium Observer poll CON 35 LAB 35 LD 7 UKIP 15 GN 7 A 5.7% CON to LAB swing in England
After an excellent interview from Nick Clegg in last night's Evening Standard, another strong contribution from the LDs today on mental health.
In 2010, we got a lot of votes with some poor policies - it now seems we may get very few votes on what is, in my view, an increasingly credible manifesto. Such is life - many thought the Liberals were right on most things in the 50s but no one voted against Butskellism.
My view remains, as it has been for some time, that the LDs will play no part in the formation of the next Government - if the Party has lost half its strength or more, it seems unlikely we would want to be in Coalition or even support through S&C, a minority Conservative or Labour Government especially given the likely strength of the SNP.
I can see where Nick is going - 300 Conservatives, 30 LDs and 8 DUP MPs would be a solid enough administration. Even if that happened, I'd be wary of Coalition 2.0.
Whoever forms the next government the rest of the year should see Chilcot, Child Abuse, ISIS, Greece, and Russia dominate the headlines and maybe more stories on phone hacking. A depressing thought
Isn`t the Tories problem that if Labour are polling 32 in the UK and 27 in Scotland(down from 41 in 2010),then they must be doing rather better in England and Wales.
It would be interesting to know exactly what the public's problem with the Lib Dems is. The most obvious thing is the idea that they have sold their principles for power. Yougov had a good spot recently showing where the ublic put politicians on the political spectrum. Cameron is well to the right and Miliband slightly less to the left. Blair was seen as marginally right of centre. The strange thing with Cleggis that he has zig-zagged about. From slightly to the left to slightly to the right and now back marginally on the left.
So either the public think Clegg is to the right and deceived them in 2010 or they think he's slightly to the left and been completely ineffectual at getting his way in the government. Neither looks very good.
Anecdotally, my mates (people in East London/Essex generally maybe?) think of LibDems as a kind of irrelevance.. the party people who cant make up their minds voted for.
Generally harmless, but now they've shown themselves to be hypocrites, people have a negative view rather than no view at all.
A bit like an Everton as someone said earlier.. never go down, never win anything, wouldn't realise they were there until they did something crap when in the spotlight
I'd agree UKIP were a bit like Millwall. the haters really hate them, but the Kippers are a handful and get noticed.. and feared... hence, more hate
Mr Cameron has lower numbers than the Conservative Party +27 / -47%
EDIT All the leaders are less well thought of than the parties they lead! (excluding SNP)
Those are horrid numbers for the Lib Dems
Having seen the losses at council elections the last few years and in the Euros, I do wonder whether incumbency and personal votes will be enough to save more than a dozen LDs.
The odd thing about the LD numbers is that their 'would consider voting for' number (with YouGov) was in line with UKIP/Green ~25%. Lab/Con were ~42%.
That is quite interesting; toxicity may be less of an issue than defeatism.
I did my own analysis looking at all the LD held seats, allocating 2010 votes to the parties in line with yougov tables, then adding in an incumbency factor on a seat by seat basis. I cannot claim any real scientific method.
I came up with 28 LD holds, so not far from the spread indexes, Shadsys over/under line and Jacks ARSE (currently 32).
It might be interesting to apply the same churn analysis to the Lab/Con marginals, though probably have to incorporate a kipper churn figure too. If I get a quiet weekend next week then I may give it a whirl.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
The Lib Dems will soon be more like Accrington Stanley as in the advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
No, on fieldwork dates the last Sun/YouGov gets in the way. You do appear to be clutching at straws "5 Labour leads in a row" indeed, back in Dec/Jan that was commonplace. Although it looks like the last time this happened was actually a month ago,
Fair enough...pretty much level pegging the last month anyway..but I dont think clutching at straws is really accurate
If people are starting to see the real Ed and the real Dave as the reduced lead for Cam personal ratings lead show though then it really could be game over for the Tories
The chicken Cameron tag finally having an effect on the voting intentions?
It would be interesting to know exactly what the public's problem with the Lib Dems is. The most obvious thing is the idea that they have sold their principles for power. Yougov had a good spot recently showing where the ublic put politicians on the political spectrum. Cameron is well to the right and Miliband slightly less to the left. Blair was seen as marginally right of centre. The strange thing with Cleggis that he has zig-zagged about. From slightly to the left to slightly to the right and now back marginally on the left.
So either the public think Clegg is to the right and deceived them in 2010 or they think he's slightly to the left and been completely ineffectual at getting his way in the government. Neither looks very good.
Anecdotally, my mates (people in East London/Essex generally maybe?) think of LibDems as a kind of irrelevance.. the party people who cant make up their minds voted for.
Generally harmless, but now they've shown themselves to be hypocrites, people have a negative view rather than no view at all.
In what way hypocrites? They did exactly what Clegg said they would in the event of a hung parliament - be prepared to form a coalition with whichever party did best in the elections. He didn't spell out whether he meant seats or votes, but luckily the Tories came out on top in both.
It would be interesting to know exactly what the public's problem with the Lib Dems is. The most obvious thing is the idea that they have sold their principles for power. Yougov had a good spot recently showing where the ublic put politicians on the political spectrum. Cameron is well to the right and Miliband slightly less to the left. Blair was seen as marginally right of centre. The strange thing with Cleggis that he has zig-zagged about. From slightly to the left to slightly to the right and now back marginally on the left.
So either the public think Clegg is to the right and deceived them in 2010 or they think he's slightly to the left and been completely ineffectual at getting his way in the government. Neither looks very good.
Anecdotally, my mates (people in East London/Essex generally maybe?) think of LibDems as a kind of irrelevance.. the party people who cant make up their minds voted for.
Generally harmless, but now they've shown themselves to be hypocrites, people have a negative view rather than no view at all.
In what way hypocrites? They did exactly what Clegg said they would in the event of a hung parliament - be prepared to form a coalition with whichever party did best in the elections. He didn't spell out whether he meant seats or votes, but luckily the Tories came out on top in both.
The Tory election campaign is a bit of a car crash.
Everything about it seemingly pivots on Osborne's budget on Wednesday.
But his fiscal shenanigans may already be priced in.
Meanwhile Tory supporters at a loss to sell anything remotely approaching a popular policy prattle on endlessly about kitchens...
I fail to see how the voters can "price in" a Budget that hasn't happened yet and which they are only vaguely aware is going to happen some time soon (is it this week or next week?)
Mr Cameron has lower numbers than the Conservative Party +27 / -47%
EDIT All the leaders are less well thought of than the parties they lead! (excluding SNP)
Those are horrid numbers for the Lib Dems
Having seen the losses at council elections the last few years and in the Euros, I do wonder whether incumbency and personal votes will be enough to save more than a dozen LDs.
The odd thing about the LD numbers is that their 'would consider voting for' number (with YouGov) was in line with UKIP/Green ~25%. Lab/Con were ~42%.
That is quite interesting; toxicity may be less of an issue than defeatism.
I did my own analysis looking at all the LD held seats, allocating 2010 votes to the parties in line with yougov tables, then adding in an incumbency factor on a seat by seat basis. I cannot claim any real scientific method.
I came up with 28 LD holds, so not far from the spread indexes, Shadsys over/under line and Jacks ARSE (currently 32).
It might be interesting to apply the same churn analysis to the Lab/Con marginals, though probably have to incorporate a kipper churn figure too. If I get a quiet weekend next week then I may give it a whirl.
The detail of that YouGov consider question is less comforting.
As I recall LDs 2nd preference was for the Greens. I thought that for a minor party's supporters 2nd preference to be another minor party rather than Lab/Con might be indicative of them being about to move.
Ed Miliband has been on TV virtually daily for weeks revealing most of his policies with minimal rebuttal from the conservatives or the coalition. Having virtually laid out their manifesto before the budget I would expect George Osborne to produce a budget that will be highly political giving tax cuts paid possibly by the same tax take labour are planning for their tuition fee reduction together with deficit reduction of the 30 billion expressly quoted in terms of welfare and departmental savings plus tax avoidance and that the figures he produces will pass examination by the IFS and then the challenge for labour will be to show how they will meet the 30 billion needed
Has he? Didn't realise. Hardly ever watch TV news now. Get it from online newspapers and blogs like this and have done for some years now. Can't believe I used to spend half an hour an evening watching some guardianista news editor in TV centres view of what is important.
@Bigjohnowls If Labour are at 295 then Conservatives around 260 by my reckoning or so.
Labour currently have 257 seats, but are expected to lose 30 or so to the SNP, meaning that 70 net gains are needed in England and Wales. It is not too hard to identify half the number, but beyond that it starts to get rather more implausible.
If you really believe 295 is realistic then there is gold in them thar constituency markets.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
The Lib Dems will soon be more like Accrington Stanley as in the advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
No, on fieldwork dates the last Sun/YouGov gets in the way. You do appear to be clutching at straws "5 Labour leads in a row" indeed, back in Dec/Jan that was commonplace. Although it looks like the last time this happened was actually a month ago,
Fair enough...pretty much level pegging the last month anyway..but I dont think clutching at straws is really accurate
If people are starting to see the real Ed and the real Dave as the reduced lead for Cam personal ratings lead show though then it really could be game over for the Tories
The chicken Cameron tag finally having an effect on the voting intentions?
I think there is a very slow movement to the Tories. Poll variation is just natural statistical variation: the direction of travel is towards the Tories. The average Labour lead was 2% at the beginning of January, 1% at the beginning of February and they are now neck and neck as you say with the Tories marginally (points of a percent) ahead. The trend is probably not happening fast enough to deliver a majority by May, but the budget, campaign events etc could easily knock it off course (or reinforce it).
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 3m3 minutes ago Latest computation based on latest polls from Electoral Calculus has CON 256 seats LAB 308 - 18 short of majority
@johnLiburne Tories are still very slightly ahead on a 20-poll average.
You found any 20 consecutive polls where the Tories achieved a lead on average yet?
Yes. The last 20, for a start.
By my calculation the last 7 polls all had the Tories between 0.1% and 0.4% ahead on an average of the last 20 polls. If you call that "neck and neck" then it holds for the last 9 polls, and also the period 2-5 March (3 polls)
@Bigjohnowls If Labour are at 295 then Conservatives around 260 by my reckoning or so.
Labour currently have 257 seats, but are expected to lose 30 or so to the SNP, meaning that 70 net gains are needed in England and Wales. It is not too hard to identify half the number, but beyond that it starts to get rather more implausible.
If you really believe 295 is realistic then there is gold in them thar constituency markets.
The Tory election campaign is a bit of a car crash.
It can't be worse than the 2010 shambles can it?
The Tories gained 97 seats in 2010. Hardly a car crash campaign, indeed it is more than any Tory campaign has gained in decades. The polls 2 months out were indeed pretty accurate for the final result, if you browse the March 2010 threads, so I would see little net movement caused by either campaign or debates. The Cleggasm was a polling rather than electoral phenomenon.
The minuta of Opinium's poll tonight has got some PBers on edge. I wonder why? It's not so very different from what we've been seeing for the past month.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
The Lib Dems will soon be more like Accrington Stanley as in the advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
No, on fieldwork dates the last Sun/YouGov gets in the way. You do appear to be clutching at straws "5 Labour leads in a row" indeed, back in Dec/Jan that was commonplace. Although it looks like the last time this happened was actually a month ago,
Fair enough...pretty much level pegging the last month anyway..but I dont think clutching at straws is really accurate
If people are starting to see the real Ed and the real Dave as the reduced lead for Cam personal ratings lead show though then it really could be game over for the Tories
The chicken Cameron tag finally having an effect on the voting intentions?
I think there is a very slow movement to the Tories. Poll variation is just natural statistical variation: the direction of travel is towards the Tories. The average Labour lead was 2% at the beginning of January, 1% at the beginning of February and they are now neck and neck as you say with the Tories marginally (points of a percent) ahead. The trend is probably not happening fast enough to deliver a majority by May, but the budget, campaign events etc could easily knock it off course (or reinforce it).
Such a glacial direction of travel isn't good enough to keep Dave in the job though.
Mr Cameron has lower numbers than the Conservative Party +27 / -47%
EDIT All the leaders are less well thought of than the parties they lead! (excluding SNP)
Those are horrid numbers for the Lib Dems
Having seen the losses at council elections the last few years and in the Euros, I do wonder whether incumbency and personal votes will be enough to save more than a dozen LDs.
The odd thing about the LD numbers is that their 'would consider voting for' number (with YouGov) was in line with UKIP/Green ~25%. Lab/Con were ~42%.
That is quite interesting; toxicity may be less of an issue than defeatism.
I did my own analysis looking at all the LD held seats, allocating 2010 votes to the parties in line with yougov tables, then adding in an incumbency factor on a seat by seat basis. I cannot claim any real scientific method.
I came up with 28 LD holds, so not far from the spread indexes, Shadsys over/under line and Jacks ARSE (currently 32).
It might be interesting to apply the same churn analysis to the Lab/Con marginals, though probably have to incorporate a kipper churn figure too. If I get a quiet weekend next week then I may give it a whirl.
I'm working on a similar analysis myself, at the moment.
The Tory election campaign is a bit of a car crash.
It can't be worse than the 2010 shambles can it?
The Tories gained 97 seats in 2010. Hardly a car crash campaign, indeed it is more than any Tory campaign has gained in decades. The polls 2 months out were indeed pretty accurate for the final result, if you browse the March 2010 threads, so I would see little net movement caused by either campaign or debates. The Cleggasm was a polling rather than electoral phenomenon.
Yes you are spot on....as a Labour supporter on Duffygate day though I felt the Tories would now get a majority....the red army of foot soldiers and door knockers did remarkably well to get Labour up above the 250 seat mark
Comments
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/australia-pre-race.html
Mr. Urquhart, you're right there. I've lost about over a stone in the last 18 months or so. I resemble an escaped convict.
I can't see this having much if any effect as I guess if you asked most people if they preferred a public NHS without prescription charges,a free public education system without fees and free care of the elderly,they might jump at the chance of emulating Scotland rather than scream in fear as the Tories seem to hope.
UNCROSSOVER is possible
Sunils ELBOW must be in the balance as to who leads.
Surely Tories can't blow CROSSOVER (again).
In truth, even if the Tories finish ahead by say 0.2%, you can't say Crossover has taken place when it's down to decimal points. I think the two parties are at parity on 33% each.
The one thing that surprises me is that UKIP are rock-solid on 15%.
But these are infinitesimal leads, well within MOE.
The bad smell you can't eliminate.
You pick 20 consecutive ones.
They had a very strong finish to last season so I backed them at 20/1 to go up as champions. Fingers crossed.
Excellant game btw, the second half was a cracker...
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
How would you define terrible I think 270 but that is not terrible compared to 1997. 2001 and 2005
I would rather play QPR and Sunderland next year than Burnley, Bournemouth or Middlesborough.
I have just spent £600 nearly backing Lab most seats. I feel slightly nauseous doing so.
On the flip side I win £10 if Labour does indeed win the most seats. If the blues do then it's nearly £800!
Being a spurs fan, I'm expecting a tie and then presumably I've lost a fair few thousand.
Labour +29% / - 45%
Conservatives +28% / - 46%
Green +24% / -31%
UKIP +24% / - 49%
LD +14% / -51%
Mr Cameron has lower numbers than the Conservative Party +27 / -47%
EDIT
All the leaders are less well thought of than the parties they lead! (excluding SNP)
CROSSBACK
Backed Boyd FGS at 35/1 on BF and a great result for the Arsenal too
Well done to your system for picking it out, and well done
I doubt Falcao would be 35-1 FGS for Man U vs Real Madrid ;p
I back more than one per game though I must confess, but a nice winner after a horrid week. Laid Aguero anytime at Evens so got away with that late penalty shout too, phew
That truly is atrocious for them indeed.
advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if
Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
I'm glad if politicians are thinking of all the possible scenarios, much better than panicking as the election results come in.
As for fixed term parliaments, I'm sure that could be got around if it was necessary.
So either the public think Clegg is to the right and deceived them in 2010 or they think he's slightly to the left and been completely ineffectual at getting his way in the government. Neither looks very good.
CON & LAB level pegging in ENGLAND in Opinium Observer poll
CON 35
LAB 35
LD 7
UKIP 15
GN 7
A 5.7% CON to LAB swing in England
After an excellent interview from Nick Clegg in last night's Evening Standard, another strong contribution from the LDs today on mental health.
In 2010, we got a lot of votes with some poor policies - it now seems we may get very few votes on what is, in my view, an increasingly credible manifesto. Such is life - many thought the Liberals were right on most things in the 50s but no one voted against Butskellism.
My view remains, as it has been for some time, that the LDs will play no part in the formation of the next Government - if the Party has lost half its strength or more, it seems unlikely we would want to be in Coalition or even support through S&C, a minority Conservative or Labour Government especially given the likely strength of the SNP.
I can see where Nick is going - 300 Conservatives, 30 LDs and 8 DUP MPs would be a solid enough administration. Even if that happened, I'd be wary of Coalition 2.0.
The Green and Labour supporters look very similar.
http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/opinium-blog/local-vs-national-issues
Isn`t the Tories problem that if Labour are polling 32 in the UK and 27 in Scotland(down from 41 in 2010),then they must be doing rather better in England and Wales.
Generally harmless, but now they've shown themselves to be hypocrites, people have a negative view rather than no view at all.
A bit like an Everton as someone said earlier.. never go down, never win anything, wouldn't realise they were there until they did something crap when in the spotlight
I'd agree UKIP were a bit like Millwall. the haters really hate them, but the Kippers are a handful and get noticed.. and feared... hence, more hate
Everything about it seemingly pivots on Osborne's budget on Wednesday.
But his fiscal shenanigans may already be priced in.
Meanwhile Tory supporters at a loss to sell anything remotely approaching a popular policy prattle on endlessly about kitchens...
I did my own analysis looking at all the LD held seats, allocating 2010 votes to the parties in line with yougov tables, then adding in an incumbency factor on a seat by seat basis. I cannot claim any real scientific method.
I came up with 28 LD holds, so not far from the spread indexes, Shadsys over/under line and Jacks ARSE (currently 32).
It might be interesting to apply the same churn analysis to the Lab/Con marginals, though probably have to incorporate a kipper churn figure too. If I get a quiet weekend next week then I may give it a whirl.
I dont think clutching at straws is really accurate
If people are starting to see the real Ed and the real Dave as the
reduced lead for Cam personal ratings lead show though then it really
could be game over for the Tories
The chicken Cameron tag finally having an effect on the voting
intentions?
As I recall LDs 2nd preference was for the Greens. I thought that for a minor party's supporters 2nd preference to be another minor party rather than Lab/Con might be indicative of them being about to move.
p.4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/42tha4tjwo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-270215.pdf
You found any 20 consecutive polls where the Tories achieved a lead on average yet?
Thing is. I don't think I'm alone in that.
If you really believe 295 is realistic then there is gold in them thar constituency markets.
Tomorrow is mothering sunday.
Latest computation based on latest polls from Electoral Calculus has
CON 256 seats
LAB 308 - 18 short of majority
BJESUS maybe factoring in a bit of Swingback!!
By my calculation the last 7 polls all had the Tories between 0.1% and 0.4% ahead on an average of the last 20 polls. If you call that "neck and neck" then it holds for the last 9 polls, and also the period 2-5 March (3 polls)
Clarkson killed three puppies called Rusbridger, Toynbee and Greenslade, says Sunday Sport
Bottas decision seems likely around 1am UK time. He hurt his back during qualifying and may not race.
From the same company:
LD - Lab switchers : 32% online, 19% phone - (average 3 polls)
SNP - Lab lead: 31% online, 19% phone
Tory-Lab gap Wales/SW Tory +10 phone, Lab +3 online.
Etc.
The Sunday sport? Did he fly the moon bomber into them?
though I felt the Tories would now get a majority....the red
army of foot soldiers and door knockers did remarkably well
to get Labour up above the 250 seat mark