The Tory election campaign is a bit of a car crash.
It can't be worse than the 2010 shambles can it?
The Tories gained 97 seats in 2010. Hardly a car crash campaign, indeed it is more than any Tory campaign has gained in decades. The polls 2 months out were indeed pretty accurate for the final result, if you browse the March 2010 threads, so I would see little net movement caused by either campaign or debates. The Cleggasm was a polling rather than electoral phenomenon.
I reckon the same 5 odd % that the Lib Dems were projected to get above what they did are now mostly in the green column.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
The Lib Dems will soon be more like Accrington Stanley as in the advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
No, on fieldwork dates the last Sun/YouGov gets in the way. You do appear to be clutching at straws "5 Labour leads in a row" indeed, back in Dec/Jan that was commonplace. Although it looks like the last time this happened was actually a month ago,
Fair enough...pretty much level pegging the last month anyway..but I dont think clutching at straws is really accurate
If people are starting to see the real Ed and the real Dave as the reduced lead for Cam personal ratings lead show though then it really could be game over for the Tories
The chicken Cameron tag finally having an effect on the voting intentions?
I think there is a very slow movement to the Tories. Poll variation is just natural statistical variation: the direction of travel is towards the Tories. The average Labour lead was 2% at the beginning of January, 1% at the beginning of February and they are now neck and neck as you say with the Tories marginally (points of a percent) ahead. The trend is probably not happening fast enough to deliver a majority by May, but the budget, campaign events etc could easily knock it off course (or reinforce it).
Such a glacial direction of travel isn't good enough to keep Dave in the job though.
Not sure. If real, it seems to be about 1% a month which would deliver a 2-2.5% Tory lead in May, which might be enough to make the Tories largest party in a hung Parliament.
Ed Miliband has been on TV virtually daily for weeks revealing most of his policies with minimal rebuttal from the conservatives or the coalition. Having virtually laid out their manifesto before the budget I would expect George Osborne to produce a budget that will be highly political giving tax cuts paid possibly by the same tax take labour are planning for their tuition fee reduction together with deficit reduction of the 30 billion expressly quoted in terms of welfare and departmental savings plus tax avoidance and that the figures he produces will pass examination by the IFS and then the challenge for labour will be to show how they will meet the 30 billion needed
Has he? Didn't realise. Hardly ever watch TV news now. Get it from online newspapers and blogs like this and have done for some years now. Can't believe I used to spend half an hour an evening watching some guardianista news editor in TV centres view of what is important.
Thing is. I don't think I'm alone in that.
Agree. I haven't watched the BBC at all this year - literally anything. Stunning that people (are forced to) pay for that bollocks and continue to supinely accept that state of affairs. Sky News is trending blatantly left these days so that's relegated to background noise on pub walls for me too. There are so many sources for news online now that old-style television can't compete for detail and analysis any longer.
Burnley will likely be demoted, despite having the best record of any bottom half team against the top three.
Perhaps there is a parallel with the LibDems we can draw here...
I think Everton are the best reference for the Lib Dems. Gone from near the top to the threat of relegation. Obsession with Europe could well lead them to disaster.
I nearly wrote a piece comparing the Lib Dems to Millwall.
Nobody likes them, but they don't care.
But then thought UKIP are more like Millwall
The Lib Dems will soon be more like Accrington Stanley as in the advert with the two milk drinking kids
Liberal Democrats? Who were they?
A big polling night for both the reds and Ed personally so far..if Lab ahead with You Guv is that 5 Labour poll leada in a row?
No, on fieldwork dates the last Sun/YouGov gets in the way. You do appear to be clutching at straws "5 Labour leads in a row" indeed, back in Dec/Jan that was commonplace. Although it looks like the last time this happened was actually a month ago,
Fair enough...pretty much level pegging the last month anyway..but I dont think clutching at straws is really accurate
If people are starting to see the real Ed and the real Dave as the reduced lead for Cam personal ratings lead show though then it really could be game over for the Tories
The chicken Cameron tag finally having an effect on the voting intentions?
I think there is a very slow movement to the Tories. Poll variation is just natural statistical variation: the direction of travel is towards the Tories. The average Labour lead was 2% at the beginning of January, 1% at the beginning of February and they are now neck and neck as you say with the Tories marginally (points of a percent) ahead. The trend is probably not happening fast enough to deliver a majority by May, but the budget, campaign events etc could easily knock it off course (or reinforce it).
Such a glacial direction of travel isn't good enough to keep Dave in the job though.
Not sure. If real, it seems to be about 1% a month which would deliver a 2-2.5% Tory lead in May, which might be enough to make the Tories largest party in a hung Parliament.
There's about a 20 seat swing difference between largest party and still in power though.
This is getting beyond ridiculous and a joke. Whats worse the whole headline is bloody lie as the stupid Keith Waterman killed his own pups, admittedly by accident. How can a newspaper get away with this sort of garbage?
That is a huge difference. I cant help thinking that because online polls require people to decide to engage with the polling company rather than be eandomly phoned up they are more vulnerable to confirmation bias at a time like this when party loyalties have undergone almost unprecedented rapid shifts.
Whats the uk party headline figure in an average of 2015 phone polls?
This is getting beyond ridiculous and a joke. Whats worse the whole headline is bloody lie as the stupid Keith Waterman killed his own pups, admittedly by accident. How can a newspaper get away with this sort of garbage?
Mr Cameron has lower numbers than the Conservative Party +27 / -47%
EDIT All the leaders are less well thought of than the parties they lead! (excluding SNP)
Those are horrid numbers for the Lib Dems
Having seen the losses at council elections the last few years and in the Euros, I do wonder whether incumbency and personal votes will be enough to save more than a dozen LDs.
The odd thing about the LD numbers is that their 'would consider voting for' number (with YouGov) was in line with UKIP/Green ~25%. Lab/Con were ~42%.
That is quite interesting; toxicity may be less of an issue than defeatism.
I did my own analysis looking at all the LD held seats, allocating 2010 votes to the parties in line with yougov tables, then adding in an incumbency factor on a seat by seat basis. I cannot claim any real scientific method.
I came up with 28 LD holds, so not far from the spread indexes, Shadsys over/under line and Jacks ARSE (currently 32).
It might be interesting to apply the same churn analysis to the Lab/Con marginals, though probably have to incorporate a kipper churn figure too. If I get a quiet weekend next week then I may give it a whirl.
I'm working on a similar analysis myself, at the moment.
Do be a darling and post it once you have placed your stakes!
The problem with churn analysis is that it is reliant on self reported 2010 voting, so very subject to recall bias. I suspect that it works better for LDs than kippers. Kippers often claim to have voted kipper in previous elections to a degree that doesn't match GE patterns. It is also near impossible to find someone who admits to voting BNP in 2010, yet there were quite a lot of them.
This is getting beyond ridiculous and a joke. Whats worse the whole headline is bloody lie as the stupid Keith Waterman killed his own pups, admittedly by accident. How can a newspaper get away with this sort of garbage?
Has the 109 bus been recovered from the miob yet?
Hasn't it been moved to that museum on Mars with the Halifax bomber (that used to be on the moon)?
My favourite was the story of that guys brother who turned into a frog and they kept him in their bath!
Comments
Sky News is trending blatantly left these days so that's relegated to background noise on pub walls for me too.
There are so many sources for news online now that old-style television can't compete for detail and analysis any longer.
Whats the uk party headline figure in an average of 2015 phone polls?
Very similar to the story of how Ralph Miliband killed poor Eunice's cat Winston.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQWYnU9wqQQ
Because some people find satire funny. The Sunday Sport is our press writ large and with a red nose.
When it first came out the office prank was to leave a copy on someone's desk, especially if they were on leave.
Premature enjubilation, is seldom satisfactory, and almost always disappointing.
The problem with churn analysis is that it is reliant on self reported 2010 voting, so very subject to recall bias. I suspect that it works better for LDs than kippers. Kippers often claim to have voted kipper in previous elections to a degree that doesn't match GE patterns. It is also near impossible to find someone who admits to voting BNP in 2010, yet there were quite a lot of them.
ICM: Con 33 Lab 32.5
Ipsos: Lab 34.7 Con 33.3
LAsh: Con 32.2 Lab 30.9
My favourite was the story of that guys brother who turned into a frog and they kept him in their bath!