politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP moves to its highest ever level with Populus

"Quite what is driving this is hard to see. Most of the Populus fieldwork took place before the latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation though he has been getting more of the spot-light."

If it's not Farage then perhaps it's Clarkson?

I think Ipsos Mori was a reversion to mean, as the last few Ipsos Mori UKIP scores were on the low side for UKIP.

The time-frames of the changes in the UKIP figure for the different pollsters don't match, so I'd be wary of drawing any conclusion.

There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

antifrank said:

There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.

It's not UKIP that gets harmed. He's pursuing electoral gain on the back of some of the weakest and most vulnerable members of society. I'm sure he doesn't give two hoots about that, so long as he's in the headlines.

Really, I think it's just noise. UKIP have been on 14/15% give or take, since the start of the year.

What's remarkable (this morning's poll notwithstanding) is that the Conservatives can be at parity with Labour, perhaps even edging ahead, with UKIP on that number.

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.

It's not UKIP that gets harmed. He's pursuing electoral gain on the back of some of the weakest and most vulnerable members of society. I'm sure he doesn't give two hoots about that, so long as he's in the headlines.

Do your UKIP bets disgust you ?

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.

It's not UKIP that gets harmed. He's pursuing electoral gain on the back of some of the weakest and most vulnerable members of society. I'm sure he doesn't give two hoots about that, so long as he's in the headlines.

Do your UKIP bets disgust you ?

Pecunia non olet.

This latest blow up around Farage wont hurt him. He isn't stupid, he knows how his words will be spun / taken and also knows that there are a significant percentage of the population are responsive to his message (no matter how much the metro elite goes nuttos over what they see as dangerous guy with a racist message).

I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

Sean_F said:

Tissue_Price said:

FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:

Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.

By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.

[...]

For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/03/13/nigel-farage-has-destroyed-himself-and-ukip-he-might-yet-take-the-whole-eurosceptic-movement-down-too/#more-19397

I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.

I don't think you're wrong there. And on the "fifth column" stuff - which has been rather overshadowed - Farage is probably ahead of the curve and in a much more defensible position.

But he went too far on the direct discrimination stuff, and then tried to bare-face-lie his way out of it.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

I'm convinced of it.

CD13 said:

Mr Antifrank,

As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.

On the fourth point that Atul Hatwal makes, UKIP (and Farage) are indeed becoming a very serious danger to the OUT campaign.

It might be an unwinnable referendum anyway but there's a hell of a difference between losing with 32% like Clegg or 45% like Salmond.

Mr Antifrank,

I chuckle tolerantly at democracy. What other option is there?

Incidentally, in 'An ever rolling stream', I consider the effect of a meritocracy a few years hence. My conclusion was mixed.

Tissue_Price said:

Sean_F said:

Really, I think it's just noise. UKIP have been on 14/15% give or take, since the start of the year.

What's remarkable (this morning's poll notwithstanding) is that the Conservatives can be at parity with Labour, perhaps even edging ahead, with UKIP on that number.

Yes it's about as good a 29% poll as they could wish for :-)

LOL. If this poll is accurate, it's going to have to be one hell of a campaign if the tories are to get anywhere near a majority

Sean_F said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

I'm convinced of it.

And you support that? Not judging, just asking.

Todays Populus EICIPM

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

I'm convinced of it.

And you support that? Not judging, just asking.

I think it's an effective strategy for an insurgent party.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus? Must be an outlier

What is ELBOW for the week?

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.

I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

Pulpstar said:

Farage has been able to turn media hostility far more to his advantage than Ed Miliband.
Fwiw I reckon they get about the same amount.

Apart from the Guardian end of the media, Farage has generally got a pretty good press - they've gone along with his 'smiling bloke in the pub' persona and portray him as the cheeky chappie who says things others don't dare say.

Sean_F said:

Tissue_Price said:

FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:

Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.

By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.

[...]

For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/03/13/nigel-farage-has-destroyed-himself-and-ukip-he-might-yet-take-the-whole-eurosceptic-movement-down-too/#more-19397

I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.

Most normal people don't go into these moral outrages that the liberal intelligentsia does whenever Farage says something a bit un-PC.

However, I would say the danger for UKIP is not so much that people are "offended" by them, but more that they see them as a bit "fuddy duddy" and prudish and out of touch. Actually, anecdotally, it's been the "floods were caused by gay marriage" thing and the breastfeeding comments that have damaged UKIP in that sense more than anything that's been said about race/immigration.

antifrank said:

CD13 said:

Mr Antifrank,

As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.

I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.

dr_spyn said:

Carnyx said:

O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

Which of them might be psychotic as a result...

Good job Murphy hasn't resorted to bubbling coal gas through milk.

Bit too young for that perhaps!

TheWatcher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus? Must be an outlier

Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).

Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Inter-City services? Cool!

dr_spyn said:

Carnyx said:

O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

Which of them might be psychotic as a result...

Good job Murphy hasn't resorted to bubbling coal gas through milk.

PS this is so much more original (and upmarket):


David Halliday
‏@DavidJFHalliday BREAKING Jacob Rees-Mogg admits getting his nanny to inject ketamine into his eyeballs whilst at prep.


Edit: on second thoughts, I should say that I suspect that that was satirical!

Tissue_Price said:

Dair said:

Carnyx said:

O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

You can just imagine this being focus grouped by John McTernan.

"Jim, all the other leaders will tell students they've dabbled in cannabis but we need you to be a real working class hero. What could be more working class than glue sniffing, that's our line"

It'll probably turn out he was sniffing Araldite. Jim "Two Glues" Murphy.

http://www.allhomespares.co.uk/856-large_default/epoxy-adhesive.jpg

Jessy probably stuck to Pritt Stick....

antifrank said:

CD13 said:

Mr Antifrank,

As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.

I haven't looked in detail at what Farage said (I'm not planning to vote UKIP after all) but he seems to think you can draw a distinction between race and nationality. He seems to think that business should be able to discriminate against non-British people but not on skin colour. Not sure why they would want to do this as surely you appoint the best person for the job. However race discrimination legislation includes nationality as one of the determinants of race. If I were to discriminate against New Zealanders I would be guilty of race discrimination.

Having said that, it is surely legitimate to challenge the race discrimination laws in detail, personally I would remove the requirement for public bodies to publish Schemes of Equality as they are excessive, unnecessary and have lead to huge costs.

Mr. Carnyx, it's rather brilliant.

On Farage: he's not chasing voters he's never, ever going to get. Indeed, to recall To Play The King, he knows he won't get that 55% and is ignoring or actively goading them.

Disregarding what he said, the general strategy is rather obviously intelligent (and different to Cameron's Guardian-chasing idiocy which has seen a whole slew of formerly natural Conservatives turn purple).

isam said:

All the cretins saying farage has said the race relations stuff as a publicity stunt are overlooking the fact that it was said in the context of an interview for a television programme about race filmed four months ago by a race relations expert

Set up a focus group at work to cry about it, you can call it ' I feel so isolated in the real world' or 'walking into the crowd at the train station'

If you don't think Farage knew that the program was going to be aired during the election campaign then you are being a cretin yourself.

Regardless, it's not about it being a publicity stunt, it's about it revealing Farage's true views. Which may yet prove positive for UKIP, I concede.

Marcus01 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.

I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

Welcome Marcus. A nice gentle opinion to start with, I see :-)

TheWatcher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheWatcher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus? Must be an outlier

Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).

Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Itner-City services? Cool!

That's the one - looked impressive. I'm guessing it was heading north to Derby or Durham.

Wont be a patch on the 125's they're replacing. And the engines are under the carriages which doesn't make for a comfy ride

dugarbandier said:

antifrank said:

CD13 said:

Mr Antifrank,

As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.

bet Carswell feels queasy

I didn't know much about Carswell, but he came out well in Martin Bell's book. Looks like a decent man in the wrong party.

Why doesn't Miliband use his bigger kitchen? Perhaps they also have a lovely ensuite that they don't use [it came with the house!], preferring to pull out a sofabed instead?

Sooner or later someone is going to photograph that bigger kitchen. There'd better not be so much as a salt shaker in there :-D

Trivial but telling.

http://order-order.com/2015/03/13/miliband-speaks-out-on-kitchen-row/

ELBOW fans and deniers!

Despite the obvious outlier figs for Con and UKIP in todays's Populus, the renewed Tory lead in last night's YG helps maintain a Blue lead in ELBOW for the week so far - with just Sunday's YG and a possible ComRes online poll yet to come!

Con 33.1
Lab 32.5
UKIP 15.0
LD 7.7
Green 5.9

Lab lead -0.6 (was 0.3 last week!)

dr_spyn said:

Via link on Guido.

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/ed-miliband-insists-theres-nothing-8834143

Justine Two Kitchens Thornton.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLjS3gzHetA

Looking at the internals of the Populus poll for the 2010 voters (page 2 of the pdf) what is noticeable is very low (compared with average over the last year) 2010C retentions (60%) with a shift to UKIP and even lower (relative reductions from mean) of 2010L retentions(66%) with an increase in don't knows.

Neither party is keeping their core voters?

This could be debategate finally seeping into the public consciousness...

The lag on an issue becoming salient to us lot and being reflected in VI can be ... enourmous.

Party conferences spring to mind.

Also Nigel on the box more.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SimonStClare said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheWatcher said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Populus? Must be an outlier

Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).

Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Itner-City services? Cool!

The train really does look 'cool'.

http://www.railwaygazette.com/uploads/pics/tn_gb-class_800_unveiling.jpg

It does indeed, this is my favourite pic of the original Class 395. Er, taken by yours truly
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Unit_395008_at_Ebbsfleet_International.JPG

Cheers for that Mr Blue, it's been awhile since you regaled us all with your numerous 'spotting' adventures. - the good old days.

Clarkson himself approached the BBC about the fracas, it seems:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31869967

Charles said:

antifrank said:

CD13 said:

Mr Antifrank,

As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.

I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.

On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:

http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisainfocus/48482894.pdf

Ok.this poll gives Lab a majority,that's the only thing of significance to note here

CD13 said:

Mr Eagles,

"Because Farage can't do subtle or nuance."

The media doesn't do subtle or nuance where Ukip is involved, so even if Farage tried, it would still come out as black and white.

The fact Farage lied about it doesn't help him or his cause.

The reason I chose black or white was, his tweet yesterday, a Kipper said to me, he's left himself in a hole here.

What about the Brown Britons?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_5NxGdWsAAOy_R.png:large

TheWatcher said:

Slackbladder said:

Reports of a plane crash in Surrey

Whereabouts?

Brendan ‏@Brendan_Surrey 15m15 minutes ago
Huge fire in my road. Did one of the chinooks crash?? #afghanservive #weybridge

A lot of black smoke in the photo.

https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/576367927978414080