If that's right, the SNP aren't going below 40% in any plausibly likely circumstance. May2015's conclusion?
"Any which way, nothing seems likely to halt a once-in-a-generation election collapse in 55 days."
It seems fairly clear that the new SNP 45% level is entrenched, higher than even Tory entrenchment.
Effectively this election is about how the "soft half" of the remaining Labour vote plays out. Personally I think the idea that the Tory's can make much gain from them is pretty laughable - it's about Murphy clinging on to them or Sturgeon pulling them away.
This is a single poll, against the current run of play. And by Populus.
Not really. The current run is to show the parties basically tied, with variation a few points either way. It hasn't changed much since October, and it defies precedent to expect dramatic change before election day. Quite happy to pass the time discussing Ed's kitchen - that's IMO not going to shift things either.
The 3% swing from Tory to UKIP is likely linked to the further slashing of the defence budget while overseas aid is ringfenced, something the Telegraph has been pushing hard
Perhaps and / or just that Farage and the party are once again more active and back in the news and the likelihood to vote of Kippers polled has firmed up as a result
I have to say a scandal about a second kitchen/kitchenette seems so petty and trivial. I know some might think it plays into an "Ed is not really like us" narrative, but who ever thought he was just a regular working man? No-one. If Ed really is crap, surely there are better approaches to proving he is than bitching about his kitchen(s)..
'The bloke's got two kitchens'.
It says all that people need to know about just how different and remote his existence is.
Sorry, but after waiting 2 hours and a failed Google search, this is still bugging me – why would you pass coal smoke through milk and what do you do with it, after you have?
If that's right, the SNP aren't going below 40% in any plausibly likely circumstance. May2015's conclusion?
"Any which way, nothing seems likely to halt a once-in-a-generation election collapse in 55 days."
It seems fairly clear that the new SNP 45% level is entrenched, higher than even Tory entrenchment.
Effectively this election is about how the "soft half" of the remaining Labour vote plays out. Personally I think the idea that the Tory's can make much gain from them is pretty laughable - it's about Murphy clinging on to them or Sturgeon pulling them away.
Yes - the other thing is that individual polls will have a higher Margin of Error for the SNP score because it is in the 40s over the other parties. Just the way statistics works
They may look good, but they're going to be a disaster for the travelling public. The entire project has been centrally mismanaged (with both Labour and the coalition to blame), is late, and for trains that are overly expensive and may not be fit for purpose.
See the Public Accounts Committee's findings, and elsewhere.
"The Department for Transport’s decision to buy the new trains for Intercity Express and Thameslink itself has left the taxpayer bearing all the risk."
The madness of rail privatisation, in Private Eye every fortnight. We spend more on subsidising this shower than BR took from the taxpayer. Civil servants now run the railways ... BR had a Board which was set a commercial target and largely left to get on with it.
My MP seems to agree. He admits that a lot of trains he takes on FGW are unpunctual. Unfortunately he won't do anything about it ... the safe Tory seat syndrome.
The brilliance of rail privatisation has been a network that everyone expected to continue to decline, as it had been doing for forty years, has doubled passenger traffic. And before you complain about punctuality, perhaps you should compare your line with typical years on the same line pre-1994?
Your point about the BR board being left to look after itself only occurred under ... Thatcher. She cared little for railways (or the wishes of the railway unions), and therefore let the management do what they wanted within the budget. Hence sectorisation and the start of the turnaround. AIUI, this was dramatically different to the years before, when politicians got highly involved, often mucking things up.
It's unfashionable to say it, but the railways always do better under Conservative governments. Just look at how much railway was electrified between 1979 and 1997, and 1997 and 2010. This is a trend the current government is admirably continuing with the GWML, MML, Northern and freight spine electrifications.
FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:
Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.
By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.
[...]
For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.
I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.
I think you hit the mark on the point about double standards. I was quite surprised how Nigel Farage's naive views on this matter have dragged on in the coverage, given how quickly more extreme views in the other direction from several Labour politicians seem to be quickly forgotten. It is a similar matter on gender issues. Just the other day I read in the paper about how a chef put his wife in charge of a restaurant because restaurant kitchens were excessively masculine environments, and it needed a woman to bring understanding and compassion to the place. I could not help but wonder what the reaction would have been had a man been appointed to run a primary school, on the basis of them usually being excessively feminine environments, and a man being needed to bring confidence and strength to the place.
Sorry, but after waiting 2 hours and a failed Google search, this is still bugging me – why would you pass coal smoke through milk and what do you do with it, after you have?
Coal gas - what you used for gas cooking before North Sea gas. You drank the milk! As coal gas was a complex mixture of methane, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, etc., I'm not quite sure wat the active ingredient was (or rather the desirable one). Dr Spyn will no doubt enlighten us.
That list seems to have been compiled by the journalist.
"Ukip’s official list of targets has not yet been completed or approved by the national executive, a party source told The Independent, but there is likely to be a lot of overlap with the constituencies listed below.
PROBABLE UKIP TARGETS:"
Memory tells me UKIP failed to perform in the 2014 locals in Eastleigh. I think they placed third.
A headline on a heraldscotland.com story earlier today said Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy had "admitted sniffing glue" as a youngster. This was incorrect. Mr Murphy told students "glue sniffing was the thing to do" on the housing estate he grew up in.'
We spend more on subsidizing trains because there are far more passengers using them. This is a combination of a rapidly rising population and greater propensity to use the rail networks due to road congestion. The transport networks around London are stretched to their limit at the moment, meaning any small thing going wrong causes severe disruption. The dangerous crushing that is happening at London Bridge is making the most news, but several other events have happened in just the last few weeks. Oxford Circus faced crisis some days ago, and that is part of the publicly managed TfL network, which shows that nationalization is not the magic bullet many hope for. There was also the tragic case of the woman that got dragged under an underground train in Clapham Junction yesterday, after she got pushed off an overcrowded platform. I know several people that commute through that station daily, and they all say it's long been an accident waiting to happen.
I do not know what the solution is. The status quo is not acceptable, and nationalization would likely mean limiting fare rises, which would mean less funds for investment. Yet new building work often means line and station closures, which then push the rest of the network over the limit - this is part of the reasons for the problems at London Bridge and Oxford Circus. It also seems like as soon as one project is completed another one is required. I struggle to see how London will cope with the 10 million population it is projected to have in a few years. Perhaps there needs to be strong government action to encourage home working or different work hours, because the rush hour period will not be able to deal with many more passengers.
You are asking the wrong question.
It's not about trains and overcrowding. It's about concentrating 40% of the economy in a few dozen square miles of London. There is no reason, no excuse for most of the public sector jobs currently in London to be in London. Decentralisation will instantly resolve significant problems related to London and it's trains. Problems which are not apparent in the rest of the country.
There are no doubt significant benefits to living in London and it's concentration of social life, entertainment, facilities and culture. But it is damaging for the wider country and very expensive for the average citizen to be a part of.
Of course Politicians are completely isolated from this. The cost of living in London is not borne by them but by the public, they can enjoy all the upside with none of the downside, completely undermining their need to make changes.
A headline on a heraldscotland.com story earlier today said Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy had "admitted sniffing glue" as a youngster. This was incorrect. Mr Murphy told students "glue sniffing was the thing to do" on the housing estate he grew up in.'
@PCollinsTimes: I've always measured class by number of bathrooms. My history is: outside, inside, two, three. I didn't know you could do it with kitchens.
Until two years ago the house next door (the owners were 98 and had lived there for years) still had its outside lavatory - though they had an indoor one as well. Jolly useful it was for tem too as they did not need to use stairs to go to the loo when they were downstairs.
When I'm in the garden, I've often felt that an outside loo near the shed would be jolly useful.
Sorry, but after waiting 2 hours and a failed Google search, this is still bugging me – why would you pass coal smoke through milk and what do you do with it, after you have?
Coal gas - what you used for gas cooking before North Sea gas. You drank the milk! As coal gas was a complex mixture of methane, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, etc., I'm not quite sure wat the active ingredient was (or rather the desirable one). Dr Spyn will no doubt enlighten us.
Many thanks Mr Carnyx - a cheap, legal high no doubt and presumably as coal 'gas' was used, this practice has long since died out.
At the same point in March 2010 three polls gave the Tories leads of 4% – 7% – 3% respectively – an average of 4.7%. Eight weeks later the result was a Con lead of 7.3% – a swing to the Opposition of 1.3%.In other words swingback was pretty well at its peak. Going back further to the June 1987 election. Eight weeks before polling day NOP put the Tories 15% ahead – the actual result was a Tory lead of 11.8% – ie a swing to the Opposition of 1.6%.Again swingback had peaked!
For swingback considerations you should compare the polls x weeks out with the final polls, not the result. Otherwise you risk building systemic poll error into your model.
2010 is interesting but may have been affected by the debates.
1. A Nespresso coffee machine: unless George Clooney promises to turn up in my kitchen, make the bloody coffee and bring it to me in bed, not a must have at all. A small espresso machine of the type found in every Italian household is all that's needed. 2. One blender: have that. 3. A mini-chopper: I have some sharp knives. 4. What the hell is a Kenwood Chef Titanium?
My must haves: a cheese grater and a potato masher. A good vegetable peeler and good quality knives. A kettle. A steamer. Good quality pans. That's about it.
I keep meaning to buy good quality pans. My inner-cheapskate never lets me do it. :-(
Sorry, but after waiting 2 hours and a failed Google search, this is still bugging me – why would you pass coal smoke through milk and what do you do with it, after you have?
Coal gas - what you used for gas cooking before North Sea gas. You drank the milk! As coal gas was a complex mixture of methane, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, etc., I'm not quite sure wat the active ingredient was (or rather the desirable one). Dr Spyn will no doubt enlighten us.
Many thanks Mr Carnyx - a cheap, legal high no doubt and presumably as coal 'gas' was used, this practice has long since died out.
Sorry, but after waiting 2 hours and a failed Google search, this is still bugging me – why would you pass coal smoke through milk and what do you do with it, after you have?
Coal gas - what you used for gas cooking before North Sea gas. You drank the milk! As coal gas was a complex mixture of methane, hydrogen, carbon monoxide, etc., I'm not quite sure wat the active ingredient was (or rather the desirable one). Dr Spyn will no doubt enlighten us.
Many thanks Mr Carnyx - a cheap, legal high no doubt and presumably as coal 'gas' was used, this practice has long since died out.
I am seriously beginning to wonder if the polling companies are all going to get a bloody nose.. They weight by newspaper readership when newspaper readership is dropping like a stone.... are they weighting UKIP correctly??
At the same point in March 2010 three polls gave the Tories leads of 4% – 7% – 3% respectively – an average of 4.7%. Eight weeks later the result was a Con lead of 7.3% – a swing to the Opposition of 1.3%.In other words swingback was pretty well at its peak. Going back further to the June 1987 election. Eight weeks before polling day NOP put the Tories 15% ahead – the actual result was a Tory lead of 11.8% – ie a swing to the Opposition of 1.6%.Again swingback had peaked!
For swingback considerations you should compare the polls x weeks out with the final polls, not the result. Otherwise you risk building systemic poll error into your model.
2010 is interesting but may have been affected by the debates.
Also, the next three polls after the ones you quote were 9%, 11% and 5% = average of 8.3% - so swingback to Labour.
The lesson here is surely that 3 polls do not make a weighted average!
At the same point in March 2010 three polls gave the Tories leads of 4% – 7% – 3% respectively – an average of 4.7%. Eight weeks later the result was a Con lead of 7.3% – a swing to the Opposition of 1.3%.In other words swingback was pretty well at its peak. Going back further to the June 1987 election. Eight weeks before polling day NOP put the Tories 15% ahead – the actual result was a Tory lead of 11.8% – ie a swing to the Opposition of 1.6%.Again swingback had peaked!
For swingback considerations you should compare the polls x weeks out with the final polls, not the result. Otherwise you risk building systemic poll error into your model.
2010 is interesting but may have been affected by the debates.
One could equally interpret those outcomes as suggesting that either the Conservatives were being understated by the polls or there was a late swing to the Conservatives. (In fact, in 1987, right up till about midnight on election night, everyone thought Labour would do better than winning 31%. I can remember earnest discussion about the possibility of a hung Parliament).
I am seriously beginning to wonder if the polling companies are all going to get a bloody nose.. They weight by newspaper readership when newspaper readership is dropping like a stone.... are they weighting UKIP correctly??
I have doubted they are weighting Ukip correctly since 2012 and have bet accordingly.. Though I'm guessing you probably think the weightings are boosting Ukip??
Lawdy, even Mullins big outsiders being banged in. Wicklow Brave @25-1. Wonder if you could make a profit at Chelters just backing every Mullins horse.
The problem with rail vehicle procurement is the same problem with power station procurement and any other expensive chunk of infrastructure where the industry has been privatised.
None of the private companies will bear the risk. The state cannot not have the equipment, so it buys it on behalf of the private company. The risk is nationalised.
This train is a financial basket case designed by a committee of accountants which will offer an inferior passenger experience at massively inflated cost. Despite Virgin publicly claiming they are to introduce the trains in a few years they lobbied hard against them before being awarded the contract.
FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:
Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.
By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.
[...]
For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.
I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.
I think you hit the mark on the point about double standards. I was quite surprised how Nigel Farage's naive views on this matter have dragged on in the coverage, given how quickly more extreme views in the other direction from several Labour politicians seem to be quickly forgotten. It is a similar matter on gender issues. Just the other day I read in the paper about how a chef put his wife in charge of a restaurant because restaurant kitchens were excessively masculine environments, and it needed a woman to bring understanding and compassion to the place. I could not help but wonder what the reaction would have been had a man been appointed to run a primary school, on the basis of them usually being excessively feminine environments, and a man being needed to bring confidence and strength to the place.
Er, there is actually a campaign to get more men to train a primary teachers. Idea, in part, is to ensure that boys in particular have a male role model, especially given the increasing number of one (female) parent families.
@PCollinsTimes: I've always measured class by number of bathrooms. My history is: outside, inside, two, three. I didn't know you could do it with kitchens.
When I'm in the garden, I've often felt that an outside loo near the shed would be jolly useful.
I've got one of those - it's called a tree, but then I'm a boy, and I live in the middle of nowhere.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
You seem to be imagining a situation where the economy automatically generates a fixed amount of output, and that output is then distributed accordingly. Yet that is not how economies function. Boosting the local economies in Tyneside and Cornwall would be much desirable, but it will not reduce the amount of transport congestion in London. On the flip side, the success of the economy of London does not restrict that of the regions, and restricting it will not help them. If you undermine London's competitiveness, it will not be Manchester that benefits, but Frankfurt or Singapore.
At the same point in March 2010 three polls gave the Tories leads of 4% – 7% – 3% respectively – an average of 4.7%. Eight weeks later the result was a Con lead of 7.3% – a swing to the Opposition of 1.3%.In other words swingback was pretty well at its peak. Going back further to the June 1987 election. Eight weeks before polling day NOP put the Tories 15% ahead – the actual result was a Tory lead of 11.8% – ie a swing to the Opposition of 1.6%.Again swingback had peaked!
For swingback considerations you should compare the polls x weeks out with the final polls, not the result. Otherwise you risk building systemic poll error into your model.
2010 is interesting but may have been affected by the debates.
Also, the next three polls after the ones you quote were 9%, 11% and 5% = average of 8.3% - so swingback to Labour.
The lesson here is surely that 3 polls do not make a weighted average!
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
1. A Nespresso coffee machine: unless George Clooney promises to turn up in my kitchen, make the bloody coffee and bring it to me in bed, not a must have at all. A small espresso machine of the type found in every Italian household is all that's needed. 2. One blender: have that. 3. A mini-chopper: I have some sharp knives. 4. What the hell is a Kenwood Chef Titanium?
My must haves: a cheese grater and a potato masher. A good vegetable peeler and good quality knives. A kettle. A steamer. Good quality pans. That's about it.
I'd add measuring cups, a set of scales and a baking tray
I am seriously beginning to wonder if the polling companies are all going to get a bloody nose.. They weight by newspaper readership when newspaper readership is dropping like a stone.... are they weighting UKIP correctly??
I have doubted they are weighting Ukip correctly since 2012 and have bet accordingly.. Though I'm guessing you probably think the weightings are boosting Ukip??
I can't really say, it just feels all wrong to me.. I Its just a sixth sense sort of feeling that its not quite right. of course I could be utterly wrong ! Never mind the wobbling about in the polls. I do wonder if people are being truthful to the pollsters.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
An interesting question. I could see the sense of going private in boroughs where the State schools are poor, but I can't see the point of beggaring yourself where the schools are good.
But one barrister friend put it to me (and rather shocked me) by saying "I don't want my children mixing with scum."
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
The sad fact is all over the world (and all over the UK) one lot of people don't get along or like another lot; divides are tribal, racial or religious; sometimes just pure prejudice. You can't use the law to force people to get along and like each other and laws that try and do that just stir up more resentment.
As much as people of the left love to admire the view from their moral mountains, the real world always appears to ruin it.
Given it is a friday, this always sticks in the memory; everyone is a little bit racist.
FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:
Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.
By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.
[...]
For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.
I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.
I think you hit the mark on the point about double standards. I was quite surprised how Nigel Farage's naive views on this matter have dragged on in the coverage, given how quickly more extreme views in the other direction from several Labour politicians seem to be quickly forgotten. It is a similar matter on gender issues. Just the other day I read in the paper about how a chef put his wife in charge of a restaurant because restaurant kitchens were excessively masculine environments, and it needed a woman to bring understanding and compassion to the place. I could not help but wonder what the reaction would have been had a man been appointed to run a primary school, on the basis of them usually being excessively feminine environments, and a man being needed to bring confidence and strength to the place.
Er, there is actually a campaign to get more men to train a primary teachers. Idea, in part, is to ensure that boys in particular have a male role model, especially given the increasing number of one (female) parent families.
Getting more men into primary schools and more women into restaurants is perfectly legitimate. The element of the argument that stood out to me was the association of certain negative 'masculine' traits with men, and the association of certain positive 'feminine' traits with women, and claiming that the way to address the negative traits was to have less men and more women. I do not imagine the men into education campaign would be very positively received had it tried the same sort of arguments.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
Because they are constantly told that state schools are appalling, I guess.
Ukip are polling low single figures in London, Scotland and some big cities, a big % of the electorate. I've said it on here a dozen times, in the target seats they are very confident.
At the same point in March 2010 three polls gave the Tories leads of 4% – 7% – 3% respectively – an average of 4.7%. Eight weeks later the result was a Con lead of 7.3% – a swing to the Opposition of 1.3%.In other words swingback was pretty well at its peak. Going back further to the June 1987 election. Eight weeks before polling day NOP put the Tories 15% ahead – the actual result was a Tory lead of 11.8% – ie a swing to the Opposition of 1.6%.Again swingback had peaked!
For swingback considerations you should compare the polls x weeks out with the final polls, not the result. Otherwise you risk building systemic poll error into your model.
2010 is interesting but may have been affected by the debates.
Also, the next three polls after the ones you quote were 9%, 11% and 5% = average of 8.3% - so swingback to Labour.
The lesson here is surely that 3 polls do not make a weighted average!
18 polls in the last week of the 1987 campaign put the Conservatives 9% ahead on average, whereas the outcome was a lead of 12%.
Yes - I think there are no hard & fast rules in the campaign itself and especially not now with UKIP sitting there on 15% or so.
Fwiw, I think that the overall judgement of the media on the various parties & leaders is worth taking into account as it informs the whole presentation of the campaign.
But you have to be careful that you take into account the whole media and not restrict yourself to the media that you personally consume!
Ukip are polling low single figures in London, Scotland and some big cities, a big % of the electorate. I've said it on here a dozen times, in the target seats they are very confident.
In London UKIP have been ~10% since mid 2013. Very little movement.
Ukip are polling low single figures in London, Scotland and some big cities, a big % of the electorate. I've said it on here a dozen times, in the target seats they are very confident.
In London UKIP have been ~10% since mid 2013. Very little movement.
Ukip are polling low single figures in London, Scotland and some big cities, a big % of the electorate. I've said it on here a dozen times, in the target seats they are very confident.
Similarly in Wales only polls, UKIP have been doing pretty well overall but will likely garner few votes in the Welsh-speaking areas, meaning they must be doing better in the English-speaking areas.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
An interesting question. I could see the sense of going private in boroughs where the State schools are poor, but I can't see the point of beggaring yourself where the schools are good.
But one barrister friend put it to me (and rather shocked me) by saying "I don't want my children mixing with scum."
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
Delighted about your mother, but the NHS is pretty good at cancer - you'd need to see the evidence that they would have provided a worse outcome
Ukip are polling low single figures in London, Scotland and some big cities, a big % of the electorate. I've said it on here a dozen times, in the target seats they are very confident.
In London UKIP have been ~10% since mid 2013. Very little movement.
Yes but it still contributes significantly to the overcrowding.
And more importantly, it's the most important public sector employment - the politicians, the departmental head offices, the civil service, the ones that have an ancilliary private sector attached.
Many commenters on this website seem to have better understandings of psephology than I do, but might I venture a guess at what is causing this movement in the polls? There has been a lot of news recently about the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, and particularly three girls from the East End venturing out to join them. This might cause the sort of cultural panic that can lead people to voice support for a very right-wing party, to signify their dislike for this sort of thing. It is not necessarily very rational, as it is hard to see how a UKIP Home Secretary would stop such a thing any more than a Conservative one, but then political support is often more an expression of values than anything else.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
An interesting question. I could see the sense of going private in boroughs where the State schools are poor, but I can't see the point of beggaring yourself where the schools are good.
But one barrister friend put it to me (and rather shocked me) by saying "I don't want my children mixing with scum."
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
Delighted about your mother, but the NHS is pretty good at cancer - you'd need to see the evidence that they would have provided a worse outcome
I'm sure the NHS surgery would have been fine, but I don't doubt she'd have had to have waited longer for an operation.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
As far as Scotland goes, independent schools have always been seen as an alternative to the Apartheid system.
This is a single poll, against the current run of play. And by Populus.
Not really. The current run is to show the parties basically tied, with variation a few points either way. It hasn't changed much since October, and it defies precedent to expect dramatic change before election day. Quite happy to pass the time discussing Ed's kitchen - that's IMO not going to shift things either.
The trend has been against Labour for about 18 months now, they have lost 20% of their support in the average polls and their chance of an overall majority has gone with the meltdown in Scotland.
Now it is pretty level with the Tories maybe a smidge ahead, with the long term direction of travel added to the low rating of your leader it is fair to expect the Tories to lead by 2 to 4% come polling day.
Quite how that maps out in terms of seats is open to debate but the Conservatives are increasingly looking more likely to win most seats.
Miliband's kitchens won't shape the election other than reinforce he is no more man of the people than Cameron. I certainly wouldn't be complacent in your position at national or local level, both could go either way but both sliding slowly away from you.
Yes but it still contributes significantly to the overcrowding.
And more importantly, it's the most important public sector employment - the politicians, the departmental head offices, the civil service, the ones that have an ancilliary private sector attached.
We've spent roughly a generation cajoling, blackmailing and bribing public and private sector employers to outsource jobs from London to other parts of the UK. In that time, London has grown steadily more dominant.
Other parts of the country will do better when they stop trying to compete against London and start trying to leverage off its international strengths.
You seem to be imagining a situation where the economy automatically generates a fixed amount of output, and that output is then distributed accordingly. Yet that is not how economies function. Boosting the local economies in Tyneside and Cornwall would be much desirable, but it will not reduce the amount of transport congestion in London. On the flip side, the success of the economy of London does not restrict that of the regions, and restricting it will not help them. If you undermine London's competitiveness, it will not be Manchester that benefits, but Frankfurt or Singapore.
Because Frankfurt and Singapore are good examples of a similarly lopsided economy to that of the UK? except they aren't, Frankfurt is Germany's 5th largest city and Singapore is a City State.
1. A Nespresso coffee machine: unless George Clooney promises to turn up in my kitchen, make the bloody coffee and bring it to me in bed, not a must have at all. A small espresso machine of the type found in every Italian household is all that's needed. 2. One blender: have that. 3. A mini-chopper: I have some sharp knives. 4. What the hell is a Kenwood Chef Titanium?
My must haves: a cheese grater and a potato masher. A good vegetable peeler and good quality knives. A kettle. A steamer. Good quality pans. That's about it.
I'd add measuring cups, a set of scales and a baking tray
My one luxury is a set of copper saucepans.
No strainer/sieve?
(And as a Scot I'd add a girdle for drop scones and oatcakes.)
An interesting question. I could see the sense of going private in boroughs where the State schools are poor, but I can't see the point of beggaring yourself where the schools are good.
But one barrister friend put it to me (and rather shocked me) by saying "I don't want my children mixing with scum."
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
Errant nonsense. The NHS provides the same level of care. In my own mother's case after her cancer diagnosis she was treated within 6 days.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
As far as Scotland goes, independent schools have always been seen as an alternative to the Apartheid system.
Scottish Independent schools were and still are very successful... see Tony Blair - Fettes.. and of course Tony Blair was a reactionary landowning aristocrat.
"latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation" - Mr Smithson showing his bias, again. Not race based as N Farage and UKIP emphasized but nationality based. Very large difference, as he well knows.
"latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation" - Mr Smithson showing his bias, again. Not race based as N Farage and UKIP emphasized but nationality based. Very large difference, as he well knows.
Just getting my welcome in quick, in case you go the way of audreyanne when OGH sees that.
Hmm. Ladbrokes' F1 markets are up, though the qualifying top 10, which was the one that interested me most, appears to be missing. Anyway, I'll see about getting the pre-qualifying piece done fairly soon.
As far as Scotland goes, independent schools have always been seen as an alternative to the Apartheid system.
Scottish Independent schools were and still are very successful... see Tony Blair - Fettes.. and of course Tony Blair was a reactionary landowning aristocrat.
They are no longer as accessible as they once were, there is no way that I would have gone to a private school given similar circumstances today. To go to Dollar Academy today costs the same for one child as three children cost (in real terms) 30 years ago. This seems to be linked to the compunction to increase assisted places which has effectively squeezed the middle class out of private schooling.
An interesting question. I could see the sense of going private in boroughs where the State schools are poor, but I can't see the point of beggaring yourself where the schools are good.
But one barrister friend put it to me (and rather shocked me) by saying "I don't want my children mixing with scum."
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
Errant nonsense. The NHS provides the same level of care. In my own mother's case after her cancer diagnosis she was treated within 6 days.
The standard of healthcare varies markedly across the country. I and my parents pay £6,000 p.a. health insurance. It would have been most unwise not to take advantage of it, in the hope that the local NHS would operate as quickly. Maybe they would, but probably they wouldn't.
Everyone's experiences are different, but a work colleague of mine has just died of cancer, after her GP and the local hospital spent weeks faffing around, trying to arrange tests for her. By the time the tests were arranged, the cancer was inoperable.
1. A Nespresso coffee machine: unless George Clooney promises to turn up in my kitchen, make the bloody coffee and bring it to me in bed, not a must have at all. A small espresso machine of the type found in every Italian household is all that's needed. 2. One blender: have that. 3. A mini-chopper: I have some sharp knives. 4. What the hell is a Kenwood Chef Titanium?
My must haves: a cheese grater and a potato masher. A good vegetable peeler and good quality knives. A kettle. A steamer. Good quality pans. That's about it.
I'd add measuring cups, a set of scales and a baking tray
My one luxury is a set of copper saucepans.
No strainer/sieve?
(And as a Scot I'd add a girdle for drop scones and oatcakes.)
You seem to be imagining a situation where the economy automatically generates a fixed amount of output, and that output is then distributed accordingly. Yet that is not how economies function. Boosting the local economies in Tyneside and Cornwall would be much desirable, but it will not reduce the amount of transport congestion in London. On the flip side, the success of the economy of London does not restrict that of the regions, and restricting it will not help them. If you undermine London's competitiveness, it will not be Manchester that benefits, but Frankfurt or Singapore.
Because Frankfurt and Singapore are good examples of a similarly lopsided economy to that of the UK? except they aren't, Frankfurt is Germany's 5th largest city and Singapore is a City State.
No, because Frankfurt and Singapore are already established as major financial hubs. The existence of other cities in the states they are part of are irrelevant.
As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:
And yet demand for private schools continues to grow. I don't believe that, outside of a small group of schools (and individuals) there is much 'snob' value in a private education.
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
I have recently undergone some major vascular surgery. Following a previous rough NHS experience I decided that I would have this done privately, but my GP persuaded me otherwise. He explained that within the NHS best practice is constantly shared and I was guaranteed the best operation and outcome that was available in the UK. My alternative would be to hunt down a vascular surgeon and see how his record stacked up. I would then have to consider whether that record translated to his private work, and then do separate research regarding hospitals etc. So, I went with the NHS, and was happy with both process and the outcome.
"After extensive repairs by Network Rail engineers the line has now re-opened, allowing a normal train service to resume between Leamington Spa and Banbury today, Friday 13 March."
An interesting question. I could see the sense of going private in boroughs where the State schools are poor, but I can't see the point of beggaring yourself where the schools are good.
But one barrister friend put it to me (and rather shocked me) by saying "I don't want my children mixing with scum."
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
Errant nonsense. The NHS provides the same level of care. In my own mother's case after her cancer diagnosis she was treated within 6 days.
The standard of healthcare varies markedly across the country. I and my parents pay £6,000 p.a. health insurance. It would have been most unwise not to take advantage of it, in the hope that the local NHS would operate as quickly. Maybe they would, but probably they wouldn't.
Everyone's experiences are different, but a work colleague of mine has just died of cancer, after her GP and the local hospital spent weeks faffing around, trying to arrange tests for her. By the time the tests were arranged, the cancer was inoperable.
The problem is that there is a view that critical illness is better dealt with through private insurance. It is not. Critical illness is treated with the exact same urgency in the NHS as it is by private providers who are not immune to cases of negligent administration.
The only argument for private cover would be for non-critical illness because this is where you will find the NHS has significant waits. I had to wait 8 months to get my braces in for jaw realignment but that's acceptable compared to a £12k+ bill for private treatment.
"After extensive repairs by Network Rail engineers the line has now re-opened, allowing a normal train service to resume between Leamington Spa and Banbury today, Friday 13 March."
If Warwick and Leamington goes, going to be carnage for Dave on the night.
Anyone betting (properly) in this one, had a whole £1 on Coneygree and laid off the Corals offer on Conti, but have no clue honestly. Don't think Conti should be 10-3 at any rate.
1. A Nespresso coffee machine: unless George Clooney promises to turn up in my kitchen, make the bloody coffee and bring it to me in bed, not a must have at all. A small espresso machine of the type found in every Italian household is all that's needed. 2. One blender: have that. 3. A mini-chopper: I have some sharp knives. 4. What the hell is a Kenwood Chef Titanium?
My must haves: a cheese grater and a potato masher. A good vegetable peeler and good quality knives. A kettle. A steamer. Good quality pans. That's about it.
I'd add measuring cups, a set of scales and a baking tray
My one luxury is a set of copper saucepans.
No strainer/sieve?
(And as a Scot I'd add a girdle for drop scones and oatcakes.)
"Barr's Gordon-Bru. Made in Scotland from girdles."
If that's right, the SNP aren't going below 40% in any plausibly likely circumstance. May2015's conclusion?
"Any which way, nothing seems likely to halt a once-in-a-generation election collapse in 55 days."
So the key question in my mind is: will the Conservatives lose their majority in England?
At GE2010 the Conservatives won 297 of the 533 English seats, a majority of 61. Assuming ten gains from the Lib Dems, they would have to lose more than 40 seats to Labour and UKIP to lose their majority in England.
There has been a lot of news recently about the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, and particularly three girls from the East End venturing out to join them. This might cause the sort of cultural panic that can lead people to voice support for a very right-wing party, to signify their dislike for this sort of thing. It is not necessarily very rational, as it is hard to see how a UKIP Home Secretary would stop such a thing any more than a Conservative one, but then political support is often more an expression of values than anything else.
I think you're right insofar as the dominant news narrative late this week is driving people to UKIP in the most up to date polls.
I don't think it's the three girls leaving that is the key part. It's probably a combination of Clarkson and Farage.
A lot of people see UKIP as sticking two fingers up to the establishment and the Britain that's been created in the last generation.
One of the reasons Cameron wants just one early debate is the desire to keep Farage off telly.
There always seem to be clear spikes towards UKIP when we get stories about PC/paedophilia/muslims/race relations.
"latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation" - Mr Smithson showing his bias, again. Not race based as N Farage and UKIP emphasized but nationality based. Very large difference, as he well knows.
Good news, should stop us failing to 'save the planet' again...
"Nations are desperate for the Paris meeting to avoid a repeat of the shambolic gathering in Copenhagen in 2009 that failed in its billing as the summit to save the planet."
Mr. Song, those comparisons are madder than a box of frogs.
We know the Earth can (and has) warm and cool naturally. Saying 'the Earth is warming' proves nothing (even if true, temperatures appear to have plateaued, though it's worth noting revisions almost always seem upward).
The case has not been proven.
I'm amused at the way it's transformed from 'global warming' to 'climate change', as if the climate would otherwise naturally be in some kind of steady state, a perpetual stasis that has been wrecked by man's industrial activity.
The climate has never, ever been like that. We've had ice ages and hot periods and all manner of tumult and change throughout the planet's history.
A changing climate isn't some catastrophe - it's the normal state of affairs.
"latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation" - Mr Smithson showing his bias, again. Not race based as N Farage and UKIP emphasized but nationality based. Very large difference, as he well knows.
Condemned in his own words:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m3JyEQBtZY
Mr Farage said he wanted employers to be able to discriminate by nationality. To favour british applicants over EU/other nationals.
"latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation" - Mr Smithson showing his bias, again. Not race based as N Farage and UKIP emphasized but nationality based. Very large difference, as he well knows.
"latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation" - Mr Smithson showing his bias, again. Not race based as N Farage and UKIP emphasized but nationality based. Very large difference, as he well knows.
An interesting question. I could see the sense of going private in boroughs where the State schools are poor, but I can't see the point of beggaring yourself where the schools are good.
Completely agree - we are weighing up state vs. private at the moment.
But the point was that SO's sweeping assertion that state schools, like for like, outperform private schools is not borne out by the fact that people are prepared to beggar themselves for private education: on the assumption they are rational, then they must perceive advantage in the investment
Comments
Effectively this election is about how the "soft half" of the remaining Labour vote plays out. Personally I think the idea that the Tory's can make much gain from them is pretty laughable - it's about Murphy clinging on to them or Sturgeon pulling them away.
It says all that people need to know about just how different and remote his existence is.
Just like Emily Thornberry's Van and Flags tweet.
Was Salmond's resignation of the leadership a masterclass in electoral timing/action ?
I reckon the SNP could have been slipping back by now if he was still at the helm. Passing the baton to Sturgeon was a very very smart move.
My MP seems to agree. He admits that a lot of trains he takes on FGW are unpunctual. Unfortunately he won't do anything about it ... the safe Tory seat syndrome.
The brilliance of rail privatisation has been a network that everyone expected to continue to decline, as it had been doing for forty years, has doubled passenger traffic. And before you complain about punctuality, perhaps you should compare your line with typical years on the same line pre-1994?
Your point about the BR board being left to look after itself only occurred under ... Thatcher. She cared little for railways (or the wishes of the railway unions), and therefore let the management do what they wanted within the budget. Hence sectorisation and the start of the turnaround. AIUI, this was dramatically different to the years before, when politicians got highly involved, often mucking things up.
It's unfashionable to say it, but the railways always do better under Conservative governments. Just look at how much railway was electrified between 1979 and 1997, and 1997 and 2010. This is a trend the current government is admirably continuing with the GWML, MML, Northern and freight spine electrifications.
Don't trust Labour with the railways. ;-)
"Ukip’s official list of targets has not yet been completed or approved by the national executive, a party source told The Independent, but there is likely to be a lot of overlap with the constituencies listed below.
PROBABLE UKIP TARGETS:"
Memory tells me UKIP failed to perform in the 2014 locals in Eastleigh. I think they placed third.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-31867574
It's not about trains and overcrowding. It's about concentrating 40% of the economy in a few dozen square miles of London. There is no reason, no excuse for most of the public sector jobs currently in London to be in London. Decentralisation will instantly resolve significant problems related to London and it's trains. Problems which are not apparent in the rest of the country.
There are no doubt significant benefits to living in London and it's concentration of social life, entertainment, facilities and culture. But it is damaging for the wider country and very expensive for the average citizen to be a part of.
Of course Politicians are completely isolated from this. The cost of living in London is not borne by them but by the public, they can enjoy all the upside with none of the downside, completely undermining their need to make changes.
When I'm in the garden, I've often felt that an outside loo near the shed would be jolly useful.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/129679/this-video-will-make-you-angry-4/
2010 is interesting but may have been affected by the debates.
books.google.co.uk/books?id=Ak6cBQAAQBAJ&pg=RA1-PA1911&lpg=RA1-PA1911&dq=%22corporation+cocktail%22&source=bl&ots=a4OY5i7x6J&sig=x13Iw0iAYFj27kE6CaPaGa0EJxU&hl=en&sa=X&ei=cfMCVa3UHMXB7gbPyYGgDQ&ved=0CEUQ6AEwBw#v=onepage&q=%22corporation%20cocktail%22&f=false
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_387993.pdf
See page 12.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Electric+Soup
Love the associated words.
'17 Words related to Electric Soup
derve
screech
alcohol
booze
clear
drink
el d
eldorado
fleein'
greenock
gubbed
jahalered
jaiked up
muntit
old tawney
troattered
wine city'
The lesson here is surely that 3 polls do not make a weighted average!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
None of the private companies will bear the risk. The state cannot not have the equipment, so it buys it on behalf of the private company. The risk is nationalised.
This train is a financial basket case designed by a committee of accountants which will offer an inferior passenger experience at massively inflated cost. Despite Virgin publicly claiming they are to introduce the trains in a few years they lobbied hard against them before being awarded the contract.
http://t.co/cUava0ipYS http://t.co/ZpokjTlAwF
So why are parents prepared to pay through the nose for it?
You seem to be imagining a situation where the economy automatically generates a fixed amount of output, and that output is then distributed accordingly. Yet that is not how economies function. Boosting the local economies in Tyneside and Cornwall would be much desirable, but it will not reduce the amount of transport congestion in London. On the flip side, the success of the economy of London does not restrict that of the regions, and restricting it will not help them. If you undermine London's competitiveness, it will not be Manchester that benefits, but Frankfurt or Singapore.
Complete bookies race this one.
My one luxury is a set of copper saucepans.
Never mind the wobbling about in the polls. I do wonder if people are being truthful to the pollsters.
But one barrister friend put it to me (and rather shocked me) by saying "I don't want my children mixing with scum."
Private healthcare, on the other hand, is worth its weight in gold. It saved my mother's life when she was diagnosed with cancer, and got operated on within 12 days of the diagnosis.
Given it is a friday, this always sticks in the memory; everyone is a little bit racist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RovF1zsDoeM
https://www.facebook.com/notes/jojo-binay/speech-of-vice-president-jejomar-c-binay-for-the-marubeni-corporation-cocktail-r/682402838451217
Fwiw, I think that the overall judgement of the media on the various parties & leaders is worth taking into account as it informs the whole presentation of the campaign.
But you have to be careful that you take into account the whole media and not restrict yourself to the media that you personally consume!
"I've got one of those - it's called a tree, but then I'm a boy, and I live in the middle of nowhere"
The benefit of being male; the whole world is your toilet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#London
And more importantly, it's the most important public sector employment - the politicians, the departmental head offices, the civil service, the ones that have an ancilliary private sector attached.
Now it is pretty level with the Tories maybe a smidge ahead, with the long term direction of travel added to the low rating of your leader it is fair to expect the Tories to lead by 2 to 4% come polling day.
Quite how that maps out in terms of seats is open to debate but the Conservatives are increasingly looking more likely to win most seats.
Miliband's kitchens won't shape the election other than reinforce he is no more man of the people than Cameron. I certainly wouldn't be complacent in your position at national or local level, both could go either way but both sliding slowly away from you.
Other parts of the country will do better when they stop trying to compete against London and start trying to leverage off its international strengths.
(And as a Scot I'd add a girdle for drop scones and oatcakes.)
Maybe he should lay of the crisps?
Welcome to PB!
Hmm. Ladbrokes' F1 markets are up, though the qualifying top 10, which was the one that interested me most, appears to be missing. Anyway, I'll see about getting the pre-qualifying piece done fairly soon.
Welcome to the site, Mr. Negra.
Everyone's experiences are different, but a work colleague of mine has just died of cancer, after her GP and the local hospital spent weeks faffing around, trying to arrange tests for her. By the time the tests were arranged, the cancer was inoperable.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31864218
http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/90845.aspx
The only argument for private cover would be for non-critical illness because this is where you will find the NHS has significant waits. I had to wait 8 months to get my braces in for jaw realignment but that's acceptable compared to a £12k+ bill for private treatment.
Anyone betting (properly) in this one, had a whole £1 on Coneygree and laid off the Corals offer on Conti, but have no clue honestly. Don't think Conti should be 10-3 at any rate.
At GE2010 the Conservatives won 297 of the 533 English seats, a majority of 61. Assuming ten gains from the Lib Dems, they would have to lose more than 40 seats to Labour and UKIP to lose their majority in England.
I don't think it's the three girls leaving that is the key part. It's probably a combination of Clarkson and Farage.
A lot of people see UKIP as sticking two fingers up to the establishment and the Britain that's been created in the last generation.
One of the reasons Cameron wants just one early debate is the desire to keep Farage off telly.
There always seem to be clear spikes towards UKIP when we get stories about PC/paedophilia/muslims/race relations.
From reports he did, to denial he ever tried it.
The latest? He "can't remember" if he did or not.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/313732-murphy-recalls-sniffing-glue-was-a-working-class-thing-to-do/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9m3JyEQBtZY
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31855535
Good news, should stop us failing to 'save the planet' again...
"Nations are desperate for the Paris meeting to avoid a repeat of the shambolic gathering in Copenhagen in 2009 that failed in its billing as the summit to save the planet."
Measles - tick.
Smoking - tick.
Climate Change - awaited.
Anyone care to guess which police force this scandal took place in, before they follow the link?
Amazing stuff.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-31869161
We know the Earth can (and has) warm and cool naturally. Saying 'the Earth is warming' proves nothing (even if true, temperatures appear to have plateaued, though it's worth noting revisions almost always seem upward).
The case has not been proven.
I'm amused at the way it's transformed from 'global warming' to 'climate change', as if the climate would otherwise naturally be in some kind of steady state, a perpetual stasis that has been wrecked by man's industrial activity.
The climate has never, ever been like that. We've had ice ages and hot periods and all manner of tumult and change throughout the planet's history.
A changing climate isn't some catastrophe - it's the normal state of affairs.
www.channel4.com/info/press/news/farage-ukip-government-could-scrap-race-discrimination-laws
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/its-not-me-whos-ignorant--its-everyone-who-took-against-what-i-said-about-racial-discrimination-10104043.html
But the UKIP devotees won't believe the evidence of their own ears, it seems.
But the point was that SO's sweeping assertion that state schools, like for like, outperform private schools is not borne out by the fact that people are prepared to beggar themselves for private education: on the assumption they are rational, then they must perceive advantage in the investment