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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP moves to its highest ever level with Populus

SystemSystem Posts: 12,290
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP moves to its highest ever level with Populus

It is always said that one of the best signs of a polling trend is when several pollsters report the same direction of movement if not the scale. If that is the case then UKIP must be absolutely delighted with the three polls that have been published in the past 24 hours.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:

    Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.

    By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.

    [...]

    For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/03/13/nigel-farage-has-destroyed-himself-and-ukip-he-might-yet-take-the-whole-eurosceptic-movement-down-too/#more-19397
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    "Quite what is driving this is hard to see. Most of the Populus fieldwork took place before the latest Farage story on workplace race-legislation though he has been getting more of the spot-light."

    If it's not Farage then perhaps it's Clarkson?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Third.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    I think Ipsos Mori was a reversion to mean, as the last few Ipsos Mori UKIP scores were on the low side for UKIP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    @Tissue_Price In a first past the post system Marmite can work quite well.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The time-frames of the changes in the UKIP figure for the different pollsters don't match, so I'd be wary of drawing any conclusion.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Dair said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Dair said:


    Perhaps you missed Vine's assassination on This Week, which was very good and very to the point. She was on playing the victim card until it was pointed out that she was the bully. Her sputtering non-responses were a sight to behold.

    Portillo really went to town on her which was good to see. Portillo is the best part of this week, although Johnson is an improvement on Abbott. Just wish they'd get rid of the fluffy segment at the end.
    What they need to drop is the irrelevant Miranda Green, her Norwegian Blue Party don't really deserve the coverage they get.

    The final string on This Week varies, it worked pretty well last night with Drew-Honey as he's pretty well spoken and knows his stuff. His documentaries on BBC3 were probably the only time the channel has had decent documentary output.
    I would say bring back Charlie Kennedy, although on the basis of his QT performance maybe not?! And yes the lad was pretty good last night, very articulate, made a pleasant change.
    I think Chuckles needs a long rest out of the media spotlight.

    Drew-Honey seems a very smart cookie, a real shame that he's likely to be relatively limited in career options.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Dangerous, disturbing Farage...

    Dangerously vote winning, disturbingly popular...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    I'm expecting The Sunday Times/YouGov poll to have polling on it.

    A friend said so, and Max on the other thread confirmed he had been polled on it last night.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    It's not UKIP that gets harmed. He's pursuing electoral gain on the back of some of the weakest and most vulnerable members of society. I'm sure he doesn't give two hoots about that, so long as he's in the headlines.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    Mr Antifrank,

    "The adults are horrified and the children think it's hilarious."

    A nice analogy. But in politics, there are no adults and children - they all have one vote. You may be sure that you're the adult but the 'children' may not agree with you.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872

    Really, I think it's just noise. UKIP have been on 14/15% give or take, since the start of the year.

    What's remarkable (this morning's poll notwithstanding) is that the Conservatives can be at parity with Labour, perhaps even edging ahead, with UKIP on that number.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    Tissue_Price said:

    FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:

    Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.

    By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.

    [...]

    For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/03/13/nigel-farage-has-destroyed-himself-and-ukip-he-might-yet-take-the-whole-eurosceptic-movement-down-too/#more-19397

    I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    It's not UKIP that gets harmed. He's pursuing electoral gain on the back of some of the weakest and most vulnerable members of society. I'm sure he doesn't give two hoots about that, so long as he's in the headlines.
    Do your UKIP bets disgust you ;) ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    Sean_F said:


    Really, I think it's just noise. UKIP have been on 14/15% give or take, since the start of the year.

    What's remarkable (this morning's poll notwithstanding) is that the Conservatives can be at parity with Labour, perhaps even edging ahead, with UKIP on that number.

    If Dave could get back the around one in five 2010 Tories who have defected UKIP, he'd have a majority winning platform.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    It's not UKIP that gets harmed. He's pursuing electoral gain on the back of some of the weakest and most vulnerable members of society. I'm sure he doesn't give two hoots about that, so long as he's in the headlines.
    Do your UKIP bets disgust you ;) ?
    Pecunia non olet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    edited March 2015
    @TheScreamingEagles

    If Ed could get back the around one in ten 2010 Labourites who have defected UKIP, he'd definitely be PM.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    This latest blow up around Farage wont hurt him. He isn't stupid, he knows how his words will be spun / taken and also knows that there are a significant percentage of the population are responsive to his message (no matter how much the metro elite goes nuttos over what they see as dangerous guy with a racist message).

    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,100
    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:

    Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.

    By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.

    [...]

    For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/03/13/nigel-farage-has-destroyed-himself-and-ukip-he-might-yet-take-the-whole-eurosceptic-movement-down-too/#more-19397

    I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.
    I don't think you're wrong there. And on the "fifth column" stuff - which has been rather overshadowed - Farage is probably ahead of the curve and in a much more defensible position.

    But he went too far on the direct discrimination stuff, and then tried to bare-face-lie his way out of it.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

    I'm convinced of it.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:


    Really, I think it's just noise. UKIP have been on 14/15% give or take, since the start of the year.

    What's remarkable (this morning's poll notwithstanding) is that the Conservatives can be at parity with Labour, perhaps even edging ahead, with UKIP on that number.

    Yes it's about as good a 29% poll as they could wish for :-)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    CD13 said:

    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

    It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015
    Recent averages

    Tory - UKIP switchers (phone)

    16.0% Comres
    14.7% Ashcroft
    14.5% ICM
    13.8% Ipsos

    Tory - UKIP switchers (online)

    20.7% Comres
    19.7% Populus
    15.6% Yougov


    The divide with LD-UKIP switchers is even more stark between phone and web. Not so noticeable with Lab-UKIP.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    On the fourth point that Atul Hatwal makes, UKIP (and Farage) are indeed becoming a very serious danger to the OUT campaign.

    It might be an unwinnable referendum anyway but there's a hell of a difference between losing with 32% like Clegg or 45% like Salmond.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Carnyx said:

    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

    You can just imagine this being focus grouped by John McTernan.

    "Jim, all the other leaders will tell students they've dabbled in cannabis but we need you to be a real working class hero. What could be more working class than glue sniffing, that's our line"
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    Mr Antifrank,

    I chuckle tolerantly at democracy. What other option is there?

    Incidentally, in 'An ever rolling stream', I consider the effect of a meritocracy a few years hence. My conclusion was mixed.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Dair said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

    You can just imagine this being focus grouped by John McTernan.

    "Jim, all the other leaders will tell students they've dabbled in cannabis but we need you to be a real working class hero. What could be more working class than glue sniffing, that's our line"
    It'll probably turn out he was sniffing Araldite. Jim "Two Glues" Murphy.

    http://www.allhomespares.co.uk/856-large_default/epoxy-adhesive.jpg
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Tissue_Price said:

    Sean_F said:


    Really, I think it's just noise. UKIP have been on 14/15% give or take, since the start of the year.

    What's remarkable (this morning's poll notwithstanding) is that the Conservatives can be at parity with Labour, perhaps even edging ahead, with UKIP on that number.

    Yes it's about as good a 29% poll as they could wish for :-)
    LOL. If this poll is accurate, it's going to have to be one hell of a campaign if the tories are to get anywhere near a majority
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

    I'm convinced of it.
    Farage has been able to turn media hostility far more to his advantage than Ed Miliband.
    Fwiw I reckon they get about the same amount.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

    I'm convinced of it.
    And you support that? Not judging, just asking.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,626
    Populus? Must be an outlier :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,772
    Todays Populus EICIPM
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Fair play to the leaders for admitting that lot - @Dair's line on it has cracked me up though.

    Fwiw I think glue sniffing is seen as less socially acceptable than pot. Probably more working class though :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

    I'm convinced of it.
    And you support that? Not judging, just asking.
    I think it's an effective strategy for an insurgent party.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Outlier or not it'll need to go into the ELBOW.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    What is ELBOW for the week?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).
  • Marcus01Marcus01 Posts: 42
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    Carnyx said:

    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

    Which of them might be psychotic as a result...

    Good job Murphy hasn't resorted to bubbling coal gas through milk.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Farage has been able to turn media hostility far more to his advantage than Ed Miliband.
    Fwiw I reckon they get about the same amount.

    Apart from the Guardian end of the media, Farage has generally got a pretty good press - they've gone along with his 'smiling bloke in the pub' persona and portray him as the cheeky chappie who says things others don't dare say.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

    I'm convinced of it.
    Farage has been able to turn media hostility far more to his advantage than Ed Miliband.
    Fwiw I reckon they get about the same amount.
    Probably because they broadly agree with Farage's unpleasant right wing opinions, but have to try and halfheartedly attack him because of the threat he represents to their Tory friends. There is no such cognitive dissonance in the case of Miliband.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    FPT: Labour Uncut interesting - perhaps overdoing it? - on Farage, and the opportunity for the Tories, but also the media:

    Third, there’s the reaction of the journalists.

    By pretending he hadn’t said that Britain’s anti-racism legislation should be abolished, Nigel Farage was effectively saying that the journalists reporting the story were liars.

    [...]

    For several journalists, yesterday was the final straw. Farage’s ludicrous denials and the tide of bile from his online followers were the point he stepped out of the mainstream and into the Palinverse.

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/03/13/nigel-farage-has-destroyed-himself-and-ukip-he-might-yet-take-the-whole-eurosceptic-movement-down-too/#more-19397

    I think there are very few voters who want to stick up posters saying "No blacks, no Irish, no dogs" in their windows. I think there are rather of lot of voters who are fed up with the endless hectoring and double standards in the name of equality.
    Most normal people don't go into these moral outrages that the liberal intelligentsia does whenever Farage says something a bit un-PC.

    However, I would say the danger for UKIP is not so much that people are "offended" by them, but more that they see them as a bit "fuddy duddy" and prudish and out of touch. Actually, anecdotally, it's been the "floods were caused by gay marriage" thing and the breastfeeding comments that have damaged UKIP in that sense more than anything that's been said about race/immigration.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

    It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
    bet Carswell feels queasy
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

    It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
    I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Fair play to the leaders for admitting that lot - @Dair's line on it has cracked me up though.

    Fwiw I think glue sniffing is seen as less socially acceptable than pot. Probably more working class though :D

    Their willingness to admit it openly is a good demonstration of the far more consensual political culture in Holyrood. I don't know how much of if you see down there but if you watch First Minister's Questions (on iPlayer as "Politics Scotland") you can see the vast cultural gulf between Westminster and Holyrood.

    And how Labour at Holyrood are trying to play a weak Westminster game despite the consensus amongst the other parties, further undermining their chance of any success or even relevance over the coming years.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,100
    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

    Which of them might be psychotic as a result...

    Good job Murphy hasn't resorted to bubbling coal gas through milk.
    Bit too young for that perhaps!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,353
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

    I'm convinced of it.
    Farage has been able to turn media hostility far more to his advantage than Ed Miliband.
    Fwiw I reckon they get about the same amount.
    When can we expect the photo-shoot in Farage's third kitchen?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,626
    edited March 2015
    TheWatcher said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).
    Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Inter-City services? Cool!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,131
    Mr. 01, welcome to pb.com.

    Racism's an axe that swings both ways (cf Rotherham).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,100
    edited March 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

    Which of them might be psychotic as a result...

    Good job Murphy hasn't resorted to bubbling coal gas through milk.
    PS this is so much more original (and upmarket):


    David Halliday
    ‏@DavidJFHalliday BREAKING Jacob Rees-Mogg admits getting his nanny to inject ketamine into his eyeballs whilst at prep.


    Edit: on second thoughts, I should say that I suspect that that was satirical!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    All the cretins saying farage has said the race relations stuff as a publicity stunt are overlooking the fact that it was said in the context of an interview for a television programme about race filmed four months ago by a race relations expert

    Set up a focus group at work to cry about it, you can call it ' I feel so isolated in the real world' or 'walking into the crowd at the train station'
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all and what seems very clear is that come 8th May, one set of pollsters is going to look as relevant as Angus Reid proved to be and one set is going to shine as brightly as ICM has traditionally done. The currently unknown question is whether it will be Populus/TNS/Survation or ICM/YouGov/Ipsos Mori.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    Marcus01 said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

    I disagree, I think we're a country that can be proud of its attitudes on race.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,788
    Tissue_Price said:

    Dair said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

    You can just imagine this being focus grouped by John McTernan.

    "Jim, all the other leaders will tell students they've dabbled in cannabis but we need you to be a real working class hero. What could be more working class than glue sniffing, that's our line"
    It'll probably turn out he was sniffing Araldite. Jim "Two Glues" Murphy.

    http://www.allhomespares.co.uk/856-large_default/epoxy-adhesive.jpg
    Jessy probably stuck to Pritt Stick....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    TheWatcher said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).
    Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Itner-City services? Cool!
    The train really does look 'cool'.

    http://www.railwaygazette.com/uploads/pics/tn_gb-class_800_unveiling.jpg
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,372
    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

    It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
    I haven't looked in detail at what Farage said (I'm not planning to vote UKIP after all) but he seems to think you can draw a distinction between race and nationality. He seems to think that business should be able to discriminate against non-British people but not on skin colour. Not sure why they would want to do this as surely you appoint the best person for the job. However race discrimination legislation includes nationality as one of the determinants of race. If I were to discriminate against New Zealanders I would be guilty of race discrimination.

    Having said that, it is surely legitimate to challenge the race discrimination laws in detail, personally I would remove the requirement for public bodies to publish Schemes of Equality as they are excessive, unnecessary and have lead to huge costs.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    TheWatcher said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).
    Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Itner-City services? Cool!
    That's the one - looked impressive. I'm guessing it was heading north to Derby or Durham.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,131
    Mr. Carnyx, it's rather brilliant.

    On Farage: he's not chasing voters he's never, ever going to get. Indeed, to recall To Play The King, he knows he won't get that 55% and is ignoring or actively goading them.

    Disregarding what he said, the general strategy is rather obviously intelligent (and different to Cameron's Guardian-chasing idiocy which has seen a whole slew of formerly natural Conservatives turn purple).
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    MarqueeMark said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:



    I am actually coming to the conclusion that Farage deliberately engineers (maybe too strong a word) some of these stories / situations.

    I'm convinced of it.
    Farage has been able to turn media hostility far more to his advantage than Ed Miliband.
    Fwiw I reckon they get about the same amount.
    When can we expect the photo-shoot in Farage's third kitchen?
    Farage would never be photographed in a kitchen. That's a lady's territory, in Kipperworld.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    All the cretins saying farage has said the race relations stuff as a publicity stunt are overlooking the fact that it was said in the context of an interview for a television programme about race filmed four months ago by a race relations expert

    Set up a focus group at work to cry about it, you can call it ' I feel so isolated in the real world' or 'walking into the crowd at the train station'

    If you don't think Farage knew that the program was going to be aired during the election campaign then you are being a cretin yourself.

    Regardless, it's not about it being a publicity stunt, it's about it revealing Farage's true views. Which may yet prove positive for UKIP, I concede.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Marcus01 said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

    Rotherham certainly highlighted it as an issue. Disgusting these people were investigated at all.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Marcus01 said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

    Welcome Marcus. A nice gentle opinion to start with, I see :-)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    edited March 2015
    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    O/T but I will I hope be forgiven for not commenting -

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/jim-murphy-talks-of-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-other-leaders-.120589878

    Which of them might be psychotic as a result...

    Good job Murphy hasn't resorted to bubbling coal gas through milk.
    Bit too young for that perhaps!
    Hidden Glasgow forum has details.

    I heard about this practice from my chemistry teacher. North Sea Gas may not cause the same effects.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    TheWatcher said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    TheWatcher said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).
    Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Itner-City services? Cool!
    That's the one - looked impressive. I'm guessing it was heading north to Derby or Durham.
    Wont be a patch on the 125's they're replacing. And the engines are under the carriages which doesn't make for a comfy ride :/
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,626
    SimonStClare said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    TheWatcher said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).
    Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Itner-City services? Cool!
    The train really does look 'cool'.

    http://www.railwaygazette.com/uploads/pics/tn_gb-class_800_unveiling.jpg
    It does indeed, this is my favourite pic of the original Class 395. Er, taken by yours truly :)
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Unit_395008_at_Ebbsfleet_International.JPG
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,956
    dugarbandier said:

    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

    It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
    bet Carswell feels queasy
    I didn't know much about Carswell, but he came out well in Martin Bell's book. Looks like a decent man in the wrong party.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeWatts_: MILIBAND FESSES UP to 2 kitchens, but says he didn't pose in small 1 to appear as a man of ppl http://t.co/mjYjYkNB2O top job @jonwalker121
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Why doesn't Miliband use his bigger kitchen? Perhaps they also have a lovely ensuite that they don't use [it came with the house!], preferring to pull out a sofabed instead?

    Sooner or later someone is going to photograph that bigger kitchen. There'd better not be so much as a salt shaker in there :-D

    Trivial but telling.

    http://order-order.com/2015/03/13/miliband-speaks-out-on-kitchen-row/
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    Via link on Guido.

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/ed-miliband-insists-theres-nothing-8834143

    Justine Two Kitchens Thornton.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,626
    edited March 2015
    ELBOW fans and deniers!

    Despite the obvious outlier figs for Con and UKIP in todays's Populus, the renewed Tory lead in last night's YG helps maintain a Blue lead in ELBOW for the week so far - with just Sunday's YG and a possible ComRes online poll yet to come!

    Con 33.1
    Lab 32.5
    UKIP 15.0
    LD 7.7
    Green 5.9

    Lab lead -0.6 (was 0.3 last week!)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Would it have been possible for Ed to come up with a worse soundbite on the 2 kitchens saga than this?

    @TelePolitics: Ed Miliband: I have two kitchens but only use the small one http://t.co/w22Vge8Fnf
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    dr_spyn said:

    Via link on Guido.

    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/ed-miliband-insists-theres-nothing-8834143

    Justine Two Kitchens Thornton.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLjS3gzHetA
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ELBOW fans and deniers!

    Despite the obvious outlier figs for Con and UKIP in todays's Populus, the renewed Tory lead in last night's YG helps maintain a Blue lead in ELBOW for the week so far - with just Sunday's YG and a possible ComRes online poll yet to come!

    Con 33.1
    Lab 32.5
    UKIP 15.0
    LD 7.7
    Green 5.9

    Lab lead -0.6 (was 0.3 last week!)

    YouGov and Opinium tomorrow night for definite, fairly confident we'll see the ComRes online as well.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,554
    Looking at the internals of the Populus poll for the 2010 voters (page 2 of the pdf) what is noticeable is very low (compared with average over the last year) 2010C retentions (60%) with a shift to UKIP and even lower (relative reductions from mean) of 2010L retentions(66%) with an increase in don't knows.

    Neither party is keeping their core voters?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,302
    When did Sturegon, Davison, Rennie last stop smoking cannabis?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/u/murphy-admits-sniffing-glue-out-of-a-crisp-packet-as-sturgeon-davidson-and-rennie-say-theyve-.1426248047

    It is always spun as a youthful indiscretion or tried once at University, but is that really the case? Odd how some habits don't last into political maturity.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Marcus01 said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

    I suspect that differences in culture are a bigger issue than skin colour, but it is certainly something that was kept unsaid for a long while.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:

    Would it have been possible for Ed to come up with a worse soundbite on the 2 kitchens saga than this?

    @TelePolitics: Ed Miliband: I have two kitchens but only use the small one http://t.co/w22Vge8Fnf

    If he has a room he doesn't use perhaps he could offer it to local residents affected by the Bedroom Tax?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    edited March 2015
    This could be debategate finally seeping into the public consciousness...

    The lag on an issue becoming salient to us lot and being reflected in VI can be ... enourmous.

    Party conferences spring to mind.

    Also Nigel on the box more.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,446
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Marcus01 said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

    I disagree, I think we're a country that can be proud of its attitudes on race.
    I agree. What i don't understand is why Farage can't sensitively criticise the more dogmatic aspects of equality legislation, and the absurd perversions of box-ticking priorities and warped outcomes it can cause, particularly in the lefty heavy public sector, without the easily misrepresented subtle-as-a-hand-grenade dog whistle?

    It annoys me because it prevents any chance of any real reform.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    TheWatcher said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Populus? Must be an outlier :)

    Sunil, I drove past the new Class 800 earlier today. It does seem a bit slow. (It was only doing 50 mph in a convoy of heavy haulers on the M25).
    Class 800 as in the new version of the Hitachi Javelin (London to Kent) train intended for long-distance Itner-City services? Cool!
    The train really does look 'cool'.

    http://www.railwaygazette.com/uploads/pics/tn_gb-class_800_unveiling.jpg
    It does indeed, this is my favourite pic of the original Class 395. Er, taken by yours truly :)
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Unit_395008_at_Ebbsfleet_International.JPG
    Cheers for that Mr Blue, it's been awhile since you regaled us all with your numerous 'spotting' adventures. - the good old days. :)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Oddly enough, the soubriquet "two kitchens" has already been used about David and Samantha Cameron:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-1390676/A-glimpse-modern-home-David-Samantha-kitchens-Cameron.html
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

    It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
    I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.
    Race/Religion legislation that curtails free speech is an atrocious idea. How will we know if someone holds unsavoury views if we don't permit them to express them. How will we challenge those views, and possibly lead them to reassess them if they cannot be engaged in debate and reason. All that happens is people internalise their nasty views and nurse their grievances until its erupts, potentially with a violent outcome. It's absurd, the Racial and Religious Hatred Act 2006 is a disgrace to any free country.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    Tissue_Price said:

    Why doesn't Miliband use his bigger kitchen? Perhaps they also have a lovely ensuite that they don't use [it came with the house!], preferring to pull out a sofabed instead?

    Sooner or later someone is going to photograph that bigger kitchen. There'd better not be so much as a salt shaker in there :-D

    Trivial but telling.

    http://order-order.com/2015/03/13/miliband-speaks-out-on-kitchen-row/

    A family of four, and they don't use the large family kitchen in the basement, preferring to squeeze into the 'tea and snacks kitchenette'.

    He's digging himself a bigger hole, and heading deep into 'lying politician' territory.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,131
    Clarkson himself approached the BBC about the fracas, it seems:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31869967
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Marcus01 said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

    I disagree, I think we're a country that can be proud of its attitudes on race.
    I agree. What i don't understand is why Farage can't sensitively criticise the more dogmatic aspects of equality legislation, and the absurd perversions of box-ticking priorities and warped outcomes it can cause, particularly in the lefty heavy public sector, without the easily misrepresented subtle-as-a-hand-grenade dog whistle?

    It annoys me because it prevents any chance of any real reform.
    Because Farage can't do subtle or nuance.

    He lives in a binary world (or should I say one that's either black or white)
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,842
    Charles said:

    antifrank said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Antifrank,

    As a cultured man, I'm sure you'll have read 'Wind in the Willows'. If I may refine your analogy of adults and children (or vulnerable adults if you like) ... I'd call it Ratty and Mole vs the Weasels and Stoats in the Wild wood. Not sure who Badger is though.

    It's disappointing that you chuckle tolerantly at a man who advocates dismantling the race discrimination legislation and then directly lies about it when challenged.
    I wish we didn't need race discrimination legislation. In the same way that I wish state schools were good enough that there was no demand for private education. I fear we have some way to travel until we reach Utopia.

    On a like for like basis, our state schools significantly outperform private ones:

    http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisainfocus/48482894.pdf



  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,788
    Reports of a plane crash in Surrey :(
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Ok.this poll gives Lab a majority,that's the only thing of significance to note here
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    Mr Eagles,

    "Because Farage can't do subtle or nuance."

    The media doesn't do subtle or nuance where Ukip is involved, so even if Farage tried, it would still come out as black and white.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Slackbladder said:

    Reports of a plane crash in Surrey :(

    Whereabouts?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    "Because Farage can't do subtle or nuance."

    The media doesn't do subtle or nuance where Ukip is involved, so even if Farage tried, it would still come out as black and white.


    True, but it's the same for others.

    Consider Miliband: he's trying to say that he doesn't really have two kitchens, as they are in a quantum state and only exist when he actually uses them.

    However this subtlety is not accepted by the media who point out the black&white fact that he has in fact got two kitchens.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    CD13 said:

    Mr Eagles,

    "Because Farage can't do subtle or nuance."

    The media doesn't do subtle or nuance where Ukip is involved, so even if Farage tried, it would still come out as black and white.

    The fact Farage lied about it doesn't help him or his cause.

    The reason I chose black or white was, his tweet yesterday, a Kipper said to me, he's left himself in a hole here.

    What about the Brown Britons?

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_5NxGdWsAAOy_R.png:large
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Marcus01 said:



    TheScreamingEagles said:

    antifrank said:

    There is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to be in the spotlight and there is nothing that he can say that his devotees won't defend. Sadly, that includes direct lying and enabling racism.

    Nearly half the public think UKIP are racist, he probably thinks well it hasn't done us any harm in the past.
    I have felt for years that we are in collective denial about how endemic racism actually is. One of the reasons that "playing the race card" has been deemed to be outside the rules of British politics is that deep in their souls most politicians know it, too.

    I disagree, I think we're a country that can be proud of its attitudes on race.
    I agree. What i don't understand is why Farage can't sensitively criticise the more dogmatic aspects of equality legislation, and the absurd perversions of box-ticking priorities and warped outcomes it can cause, particularly in the lefty heavy public sector, without the easily misrepresented subtle-as-a-hand-grenade dog whistle?

    It annoys me because it prevents any chance of any real reform.
    You can't have a sensible debate with a rabid snarling lynch mob. You have to tame them first and discredit the unreasonable irrational elements. Lobbing grenades their way exposes those elements.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,527
    edited March 2015
    TheWatcher said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Reports of a plane crash in Surrey :(

    Whereabouts?
    Brendan ‏@Brendan_Surrey 15m15 minutes ago
    Huge fire in my road. Did one of the chinooks crash?? #afghanservive #weybridge

    A lot of black smoke in the photo.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Easterross said:

    Afternoon all and what seems very clear is that come 8th May, one set of pollsters is going to look as relevant as Angus Reid proved to be and one set is going to shine as brightly as ICM has traditionally done. The currently unknown question is whether it will be Populus/TNS/Survation or ICM/YouGov/Ipsos Mori.

    I think you will find that none of the pollsters are au fait with the polling in this GE.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/576367927978414080
This discussion has been closed.