politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Farage’s comments about race relations legislation

Charles said:

@kle4 - Fundamentally, though, the Twickenham voter is deciding that *he* will be represented by someone outside the constituency. Everyone else in his constituency may end up with sub-optimal local representation as a result but doesn't get the "upside" from the 'better' national distribution.

@MarkSenior - no, neither of your examples are comparable. The owner-occupier of two houses has legitimate interests in two constituencies and can select in which one to vote and be represented. The second example is clearly unethical - I don't know whether it is legal - but absolutely against the spirit of the rules.

You do spout a load of rubbish, Charles, though not always of course. But in this case, yes.

We have a broken voting system, which you Tories insisted in keeping when we had the chance to replace it.

It is a characteristic of the English that, when something does not work, we do something practical about it. And finally the law catches up.

Your lot need to change the rules so that people´s votes really do start to count. Mine never does. I always get a stupid Tory MP.

Pulpstar said:

Note that Electionforecast has both Cambridge and Hallam as fairly resolute Lib Dem holds currently too. (21% and 12% chance of going)

Election forecast are currently predicting the LDs to get 13.6% vote share, with a low possibility boundary of 10.7%.

JWisemann said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Plus what about Labour and Blair when they kept Prescott on after he punched a voter.

That must have made Labour unattractive to you as the love child of Quasimodo and Iain Dowie.

Slightly different scenarios - retaliating to a physical assault by a stranger in the street vs physically assaulting an underling for not bringing you dinner on time.

So true...

And despite Prescott's idiosyncrasies, he's not an obnoxious twa*t.

anotherDave said:

Pulpstar said:

Note that Electionforecast has both Cambridge and Hallam as fairly resolute Lib Dem holds currently too. (21% and 12% chance of going)

Election forecast are currently predicting the LDs to get 13.6% vote share, with a low possibility boundary of 10.7%.

If the Lib Dems carry on at 10% or w/e with ICM that lower bound surely has to fall.

I struggle to understand just where UKIP are aiming at the moment. Does Farage want to establish a true libertarian style party, or is it a party representing 'old fashioned' conservatism. My hunch is he'd love to do the former but the vast majority of Kippers are after the latter.

However their model only forecasts 27 Lib Dem deposits lost.

I think it'll be more than that.

Which of course means that the Lib Dem vote share can be alot lower than 13.4% and not affect those 24 seats they hold, or possibly lead to a few more....

Pulpstar said:

anotherDave said:

Pulpstar said:

Note that Electionforecast has both Cambridge and Hallam as fairly resolute Lib Dem holds currently too. (21% and 12% chance of going)

Election forecast are currently predicting the LDs to get 13.6% vote share, with a low possibility boundary of 10.7%.

If the Lib Dems carry on at 10% or w/e with ICM that lower bound surely has to fall.

Well so far this year their highest poll is 11% which they hit once.

In a recent podcast Mr Hanretty from Election Forcast mentioned something about discounting bad LD polls (and shy Tories). I think they've overdone it myself.

http://kpedley.podbean.com

MM

As the husband of a producer you're taking rather a detached view. What's happened to the producers fraternity or is it ok as long as its only the wife that gets it?

Financier said:

The UK trade deficit has narrowed to £616m in January from a five-year high of £2.1bn in December, latest figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.

Imports decreased by £2.5bn from December 2014, the largest monthly decrease since July 2006.

The large decrease in imports was mainly due to a £1.3bn fall in the imports of fuels, specifically oil.

Imports of oil were £2.2bn in January, their lowest level since May 2009.

Excluding the impact of falling oil prices on the trade deficit, which also led to a decline of UK fuel exports, the balance of trade in goods excluding oil also narrowed to a deficit of £7.8bn.

That was the lowest monthly deficit in goods since June 2013.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31849614

Sort of like - we're still sinking into the mud - but not as quickly. Great news!

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Those who despise Farage will be clutching their pearls and reaching for the smelling salts.

Those who support him will either think 'maybe he expressed it a bit clumsily, but his heart is in the right place', at the very worst, or more likely, 'whats the fuss about?'

Comments that reinforce existing beliefs or prejudices rarely move polls.

Sometimes they do.

After breastfeeding and Kerry Smith Farage saw a substantial drop in his leader ratings which fed into the UKIP polling in subsequent months.

Unknowable, but couldn't that simply have been gravity catching up with Farage rather than those specific events?

This is for the model railway enthusiasts.

http://metro.co.uk/2015/03/11/steamy-enthusiasts-are-buying-little-naked-figures-in-compromising-positions-for-their-model-railways-5098087/

The topic was also in The Sun, but not the Sunil on Sunday...

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Those who despise Farage will be clutching their pearls and reaching for the smelling salts.

Those who support him will either think 'maybe he expressed it a bit clumsily, but his heart is in the right place', at the very worst, or more likely, 'whats the fuss about?'

Comments that reinforce existing beliefs or prejudices rarely move polls.

Sometimes they do.

After breastfeeding and Kerry Smith Farage saw a substantial drop in his leader ratings which fed into the UKIP polling in subsequent months.

Unknowable, but couldn't that simply have been gravity catching up with Farage rather than those specific events?

If I remember correctly Farage saw the second largest monthly drop in leader ratings of any leader this parliament.

Pulpstar said:

However their model only forecasts 27 Lib Dem deposits lost.

I think it'll be more than that.

Which of course means that the Lib Dem vote share can be alot lower than 13.4% and not affect those 24 seats they hold, or possibly lead to a few more....

On current trends I would be fairly confident that they will lose more than 27 deposits in Scotland and quite possibly 10x that number nationwide.

Roger said:

Eagle

Had Jeremy smacked someone who threw an egg at him for no reason then I too would offer him my support

In what sense was the egg thrown at Prescott for no reason?

He's a fat ugly troughing inarticulate philandering warmongering oik. Eggs are the least he deserves.

So Farage has gone for "British Jobs For British Workers"....I have heard that one somewhere before, but I can't quite remember.

Morning all

Best to ignore Farage and the election and concentrate on the important matter that is Day 3 at Cheltenham. The STrategic Objective Decision Great Events (or STODGE) analytical apparatus has been at work so here goes:

1.30: PTIT ZIG for the home team. Yes, he tipped up at Ascot last time but his previous over course and distance and his defeat of JOSSES HILL read well and I'm not convinced VAUTOUR has done that much to be honest.

2.05: No idea.

2.40: My idea of the race of the week. WISHFULL THINKING has to come back from his King George shocker and while I've plenty of time for DON COSSACK, I think BALDER SUCCES will love the quicker ground and he'll do for me.

3.20: A sub standard renewal for this. SAPHIR DU RHEU didn't take to fences and could be the rising star but I much prefer the lighhtly-raced WHISPER who is another who will relsih the sound surface and won the Coral Cup last year.

4.00: Very tough - I quite like RAWNAQ each way at 25s and have had a few pounds on.

4.40: No idea.

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

Those who despise Farage will be clutching their pearls and reaching for the smelling salts.

Those who support him will either think 'maybe he expressed it a bit clumsily, but his heart is in the right place', at the very worst, or more likely, 'whats the fuss about?'

Comments that reinforce existing beliefs or prejudices rarely move polls.

Sometimes they do.

After breastfeeding and Kerry Smith Farage saw a substantial drop in his leader ratings which fed into the UKIP polling in subsequent months.

Unknowable, but couldn't that simply have been gravity catching up with Farage rather than those specific events?

If I remember correctly Farage saw the second largest monthly drop in leader ratings of any leader this parliament.

PB Kippers think these sort of trivialities only impact Ed Miliband.

A river in Egypt.

I don't think negative numbers matter. The positive numbers (for various questions) do seem to be linked to VI.

eg. Positive views on YouGov's 'government record to date' seem to track Conservative VI.

Mortimer said:

Charles said:

MikeSmithson said:

Patrick said:

You will, of course, be voting blue in Bedford Mike! Can't risk an Ed premiership.

I am voting in Twickenham. I've swapped my vote and will do what the other party to the swap wants.

Have you ever considered that what you are doing is unfair and unethical?

The people of Twickenham have the right to choose they want to represent their interests in Parliament.

You are taking that away from them because you believe that your personal desire to maximise the number of LibDem MPs is more important than their rights.

How unbelievably selfish.

FPT

Charles, as ever, elucidates my own view better than I could have written it myself.

Agreed

Ishmael_X said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Hengists_Gift said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Do any kippers here want the law changed so they can discriminate against British citizens who happen to have been born abroad?

Or are they prepared to accept that St Nige might have made a mistake here?

Now it depends by which definition of British you wish to base the debate. Now does 'British born' mean 'born on British soil' or 'born of parents who are British citizens'.

Whichever way I think Farage might have been rather clumsy with his language.

Doesn't that now create four categories of British citizen?

1) born & bred British
2) born abroad, bred British
3) born in Britain to foreign parents
4) born abroad to foreign parents

What advantages/disadvantages do kippers think each group should get in employment law?

What advantages/disadvantages do you think each group should get in connection with the law on child rape, FGM and forced marriage?

Its pretty obvious no groupm should get any advantage on that.

Why do you want to avoid the clear and obvious racist dog whistle from the barsteward Farage.

stodge said:

Morning all

Best to ignore Farage and the election and concentrate on the important matter that is Day 3 at Cheltenham. The STrategic Objective Decision Great Events (or STODGE) analytical apparatus has been at work so here goes:

1.30: PTIT ZIG for the home team. Yes, he tipped up at Ascot last time but his previous over course and distance and his defeat of JOSSES HILL read well and I'm not convinced VAUTOUR has done that much to be honest.

2.05: No idea.

2.40: My idea of the race of the week. WISHFULL THINKING has to come back from his King George shocker and while I've plenty of time for DON COSSACK, I think BALDER SUCCES will love the quicker ground and he'll do for me.

3.20: A sub standard renewal for this. SAPHIR DU RHEU didn't take to fences and could be the rising star but I much prefer the lighhtly-raced WHISPER who is another who will relsih the sound surface and won the Coral Cup last year.

4.00: Very tough - I quite like RAWNAQ each way at 25s and have had a few pounds on.

4.40: No idea.

"No idea" must be a very fit horse, if it's running in two races on the same day :-)

weejonnie said:

Financier said:

The UK trade deficit has narrowed to £616m in January from a five-year high of £2.1bn in December, latest figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.

Imports decreased by £2.5bn from December 2014, the largest monthly decrease since July 2006.

The large decrease in imports was mainly due to a £1.3bn fall in the imports of fuels, specifically oil.

Imports of oil were £2.2bn in January, their lowest level since May 2009.

Excluding the impact of falling oil prices on the trade deficit, which also led to a decline of UK fuel exports, the balance of trade in goods excluding oil also narrowed to a deficit of £7.8bn.

That was the lowest monthly deficit in goods since June 2013.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31849614

Sort of like - we're still sinking into the mud - but not as quickly. Great news!

the balance of payments can include things like returns on overseas investments etc. So if the rest of the world is doing badly but we are doing well then our investments are poor and others investments here do well. So if we are relatively economically well off our balance of payments can look bad.

@tom_ComRes: I'll be on @daily_politics at around 12.30 talking about polls vs bettings markets!

Ishmael_X said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Hengists_Gift said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Do any kippers here want the law changed so they can discriminate against British citizens who happen to have been born abroad?

Or are they prepared to accept that St Nige might have made a mistake here?

Now it depends by which definition of British you wish to base the debate. Now does 'British born' mean 'born on British soil' or 'born of parents who are British citizens'.

Whichever way I think Farage might have been rather clumsy with his language.

Doesn't that now create four categories of British citizen?

1) born & bred British
2) born abroad, bred British
3) born in Britain to foreign parents
4) born abroad to foreign parents

What advantages/disadvantages do kippers think each group should get in employment law?

Farage has already described my kids as 'hidden foreigners' - what is 'bred British?' - my daughter has an English dad and a mum born in the USSR who's escaped to Denmark aged 10 - my little Bulka is being raised as a Russian speaking Anglo-Dane mash-up; what 'British job' might she steal from a 'pure' Briton in years to come and would it be ok to discriminate on the basis of her racial origins (Jewish, Russian, White English)?

Hengists_Gift said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

I struggle to understand just where UKIP are aiming at the moment. Does Farage want to establish a true libertarian style party, or is it a party representing 'old fashioned' conservatism. My hunch is he'd love to do the former but the vast majority of Kippers are after the latter.

I don't think he wants to create either. Its not about adhering to one particular ideology or another but finding solutions to the nations difficulties and reversing a trend of managed decline and all that has gone with it that has persisted in this country pretty much since 1945.

I'd suggest it's a lot simpler than that: there's a gap in the electoral market for a franchise like UKIP, therefore UKIP exists. UKIP didn't spring spontaneously into being first and then convert a few people into UKIPpers. UKIP came into being because there are people who'll support it.

It's no different from there being a market niche for The Daily Mirror and another for The Sun. You do not need to support the views or attitudes espoused by either paper in order to see the business case for them. If you think like a Mirror reader, you will make a better fist of producing a newspaper for Mirror readers, perhaps.

At bottom I doubt there are that many pols who are that deeply wedded to their proclaimed views. You'd think it would be close to 100% of them, if they can be bothered to stand for Parliament. Based on the defection rate between them I suspect something in the 30% would in fact be closer. The other 70% could swap parties without much trouble.

This seem especially likely in the case of no-mark pols who've homed in on jobs where a record of total non-achievement is acceptable, such as all MEPs of all parties.

As such UKIP is a wholly Establishment party and Farage in particular is a very traditional Establishment figure.

Sean_F said:

Ipsos Mori Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%.

Link?

Bond_James_Bond said:

Hengists_Gift said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

I struggle to understand just where UKIP are aiming at the moment. Does Farage want to establish a true libertarian style party, or is it a party representing 'old fashioned' conservatism. My hunch is he'd love to do the former but the vast majority of Kippers are after the latter.

I don't think he wants to create either. Its not about adhering to one particular ideology or another but finding solutions to the nations difficulties and reversing a trend of managed decline and all that has gone with it that has persisted in this country pretty much since 1945.

I'd suggest it's a lot simpler than that: there's a gap in the electoral market for a franchise like UKIP, therefore UKIP exists. UKIP didn't spring spontaneously into being first and then convert a few people into UKIPpers. UKIP came into being because there are people who'll support it.

It's no different from there being a market niche for The Daily Mirror and another for The Sun. You do not need to support the views or attitudes espoused by either paper in order to see the business case for them. If you think like a Mirror reader, you will make a better fist of producing a newspaper for Mirror readers, perhaps.

At bottom I doubt there are that many pols who are that deeply wedded to their proclaimed views. You'd think it would be close to 100% of them, if they can be bothered to stand for Parliament. Based on the defection rate between them I suspect something in the 30% would in fact be closer. The other 70% could swap parties without much trouble.

This seem especially likely in the case of no-mark pols who've homed in on jobs where a record of total non-achievement is acceptable, such as all MEPs of all parties.

As such UKIP is a wholly Establishment party and Farage in particular is a very traditional Establishment figure.

Who knew?

'Huge numbers of Britons would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party if it was not associated with violence and fascist imagery, according to the largest survey into identity and extremism conducted in the UK.

A Populus poll found that 48% of the population would consider supporting a new anti-immigration party committed to challenging Islamist extremism, and would support policies to make it statutory for all public buildings to fly the flag of St George or the union flag.'

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right

But despite the support for the Coalition’s economic record, there is no sign of it translating into more votes for the Tories.

Labour is in first place on 34 per cent, with the Conservatives at 33. Ukip have jumped four points to 13 per cent in the last month, while the Liberal Democrats are up two to eight. The Greens have slipped to fifth place on six.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

Kingbongo. Are you the poster who used to post here some years ago and who went back to academia? If so great to see you back

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Ipsos Mori Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%.

Link?

From Evening Standard

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

UKIP up 4, George near perfect Chancellor.

Changes since last month

Con 33 (-1) Lab 34 (-2) LD 8 (+2) UKIP 13 (+4) Greens 6 (-1)

JonnyJimmy said:

kingbongo said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Hengists_Gift said:

JonnyJimmy said:

Do any kippers here want the law changed so they can discriminate against British citizens who happen to have been born abroad?

Or are they prepared to accept that St Nige might have made a mistake here?

Now it depends by which definition of British you wish to base the debate. Now does 'British born' mean 'born on British soil' or 'born of parents who are British citizens'.

Whichever way I think Farage might have been rather clumsy with his language.

Doesn't that now create four categories of British citizen?

1) born & bred British
2) born abroad, bred British
3) born in Britain to foreign parents
4) born abroad to foreign parents

What advantages/disadvantages do kippers think each group should get in employment law?

Farage has already described my kids as 'hidden foreigners' - what is 'bred British?' - my daughter has an English dad and a mum born in the USSR who's escaped to Denmark aged 10 - my little Bulka is being raised as a Russian speaking Anglo-Dane mash-up; what 'British job' might she steal from a 'pure' Briton in years to come and would it be ok to discriminate on the basis of her racial origins (Jewish, Russian, White English)?

Hadn't thought of people with only one British parent.. Does that mean we need some new categories? We ought to probably consider whether it's better to have a British father or a British mother..

Could just implement the rules that applied in South Africa. I think they covered most options.

isam said:

'Huge numbers of Britons would support an anti-immigration English nationalist party if it was not associated with violence and fascist imagery

There's the rub. An "anti-immigration English nationalist party" not "associated with violence and fascist imagery" would be like a Dalek not associated with extermination.

Any such party would instantly be a magnet to fascists.

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Ipsos Mori Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%.

Link?

From Evening Standard

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

UKIP up 4, George near perfect Chancellor.

So the public position is:

Thanks very much for sorting the economy out now p*ss off!!!!

TheScreamingEagles said:

But despite the support for the Coalition’s economic record, there is no sign of it translating into more votes for the Tories.

Labour is in first place on 34 per cent, with the Conservatives at 33. Ukip have jumped four points to 13 per cent in the last month, while the Liberal Democrats are up two to eight. The Greens have slipped to fifth place on six.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

The polling data on supplementary questions are just so contradictory. Tories great on the economy and best for the long term and people feeling better about their finances, but loads of people want a change and very few a Tory government.

I am glad my companies don't have brands like that...

PClipp said:

Charles said:

@kle4 - Fundamentally, though, the Twickenham voter is deciding that *he* will be represented by someone outside the constituency. Everyone else in his constituency may end up with sub-optimal local representation as a result but doesn't get the "upside" from the 'better' national distribution.

@MarkSenior - no, neither of your examples are comparable. The owner-occupier of two houses has legitimate interests in two constituencies and can select in which one to vote and be represented. The second example is clearly unethical - I don't know whether it is legal - but absolutely against the spirit of the rules.

You do spout a load of rubbish, Charles, though not always of course. But in this case, yes.

We have a broken voting system, which you Tories insisted in keeping when we had the chance to replace it.

It is a characteristic of the English that, when something does not work, we do something practical about it. And finally the law catches up.

Your lot need to change the rules so that people´s votes really do start to count. Mine never does. I always get a stupid Tory MP.

And with a voting system which never gave a clear majority you would then complain about parties in coalitions always breaking with their manifestos and making backroom deals. There is no perfect democracy - if you push the system in another direction then you get another set of anomalies.

The Tories are leaving the big push a little late aren't they? Have they accounted for an eleventh hour immigrant crisis boost for Farage or Labour's very late ad campaign or the Libs turning on them with a ferocity that would make a tyrannosaurus blush?

A simple average of this week's 8 polls gives Conservative 33.6%, to Labour 32.7%.

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

But despite the support for the Coalition’s economic record, there is no sign of it translating into more votes for the Tories.

Labour is in first place on 34 per cent, with the Conservatives at 33. Ukip have jumped four points to 13 per cent in the last month, while the Liberal Democrats are up two to eight. The Greens have slipped to fifth place on six.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

It's all too late to have a big impact on voting intention. But it may be worth the couple of voting points needed to change the balance of power.

I seem to recall a YouGov question earlier in this parliament where people thought government (of whichever party) did more harm than good to the economy.

This might just be measuring 'could have been worse', rather than 'good'.

Day 3 Cheltenham "STJOHN" selection

Whisper to win the World Hurdle at 3.20pm

Sean_F said:

A simple average of this week's 8 polls gives Conservative 33.6%, to Labour 32.7%.

But if Labour has a lead in tonight;s YouGov and tomorrow's Populus poll it will be virtually "neck and neck" still.

Must admit I did think the Tories had finally pulled away this week but looks like nothing has changed really.

Tick. Tock.

GIN1138 said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Ipsos Mori Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%.

Link?

From Evening Standard

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

UKIP up 4, George near perfect Chancellor.

So the public position is:

Thanks very much for sorting the economy out now p*ss off!!!!

That's pretty much Labour's view of the Tories.

A key difference between Labour on the one hand and the Tories on the other is that the former recognise that periods of Tory government are necessary to Labour, to create the wealth that Labour exists and intends to tax away and squander. Labour therefore needs occasional terms of Tory rule.

The Tories have no such reciprocal need for terms of Labour rule. Labour does nothing in power that the Tories need to be done and that they can benefit from when they themselves are back in power.

If the Tories didn't exist Labour would have to invent them but the opposite is in no way true. All Labour governments lose power amid total crisis, whereas Conservative ones have tended to lose power when the electorate has forgotten what Labour actually means.

No official tweet yet:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI

Richard_Nabavi said:

roserees64 said:

I have to say that the Prime Minister has plunged downwards yesterday in the opinion of many people.It was distinctly un-prime minesterial of him to refer to the leader of the opposition as 'despicable.' This may suit him and his friends but it certainly won't do for anyone who values honour and decency.

Anyone who values honour and decency will agree that calling innocent and principled people 'dodgy' is indeed despicable.

Of the PM and the Leader of the Opposition, there is only one who is decent, and it's not Ed Miliband.

Do you actually really believe that?

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sean_F said:

Ipsos Mori Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%.

Link?

From Evening Standard

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

UKIP up 4, George near perfect Chancellor.

Avery, is that you?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Sean_F said:

Ipsos Mori Lab 34%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%.

But...but... we were supposed to have Crossover this week!

Anyway, part-ELBOW figures for the week so far to follow.

I don't think Crossover means the Conservatives leading in every poll. It means leading on average.

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

But despite the support for the Coalition’s economic record, there is no sign of it translating into more votes for the Tories.

Labour is in first place on 34 per cent, with the Conservatives at 33. Ukip have jumped four points to 13 per cent in the last month, while the Liberal Democrats are up two to eight. The Greens have slipped to fifth place on six.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boost-for-george-osbornes-election-budget-as-more-than-half-say-he-is-doing-a-good-job-10103294.html

The polling data on supplementary questions are just so contradictory. Tories great on the economy and best for the long term and people feeling better about their finances, but loads of people want a change and very few a Tory government.

I am glad my companies don't have brands like that...

Economy is the top issue in Scotland (according to Scottish subsamples) but they're choosing the SNP rather than the Conservatives.