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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Farage’s comments about race relations legislation

SystemSystem Posts: 12,290
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on Farage’s comments about race relations legislation

The big news this morning that Nigel Farage would axe many of the race laws is leading the bulletins and takes UKIP into an interesting political area.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Starting my day viewing quantum mechanics through the wrong end of a telescope it's nice to have a little earthiness too. Good one Marf.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It seems that there is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to get publicity and nothing that he could say that would not be defended by his devotees.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,131
    Only saw a smidgen on this last night, but it sounded like he was talking about nationality rather than race.

    Labour might be wary, lest Khan's quotas for ethnic minorities get raised as a counterpoint [that might help Labour in London and other areas such as Bradford, but in most of the country it will not go down well].
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,723
    edited March 2015
    Dave has weighed in

    @David_Cameron: Nigel Farage is attention seeking. The laws protect people from racial discrimination. It's deeply concerning he doesn't understand that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,023
    antifrank said:

    It seems that there is nothing that Nigel Farage won't say to get publicity and nothing that he could say that would not be defended by his devotees.

    Correct. I'm off now, but I look forward to delving into this one to see how bad (or not) his comments actually were, as when it comes to UKIP and their rivals, you really cannot rely on anything other than a full transcript to get the proper idea, even more than most topics put through various political slants in the media.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    One of Marf's very best. Pointed in a way that good political cartoons should be.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,353
    Would it be done in his First Hundred Days?
  • Flightpath said:

    As long as people refuse to vote for a clearly racist UKIP party then the tories can get a majority. But the tories getting a majority is increasingly becoming the least important issue. The clear issue is how readily British voters will reward racist sentiment.


    Is the EU and the Test & County Cricket Board racist?

    In 1968 the rules were changed to allow two overseas players at each county; one had to serve a qualification period, but the other could be registered without such a period necessary. This drew an influx of leading Test cricketers into the English game, and served to improve the quality of cricket and boost crowds. The laws were later tightened once again to allow each county only one overseas player, thought that player did not have to serve a qualification period. Foreign-born players could still gain qualification via residency, but thereafter were not considered overseas players. The Kolpak ruling of 2003 dictated that players from those countries with European Union Association Agreements had equal rights to work as European Union (EU) citizens. As a consequence, players from the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States could not be considered overseas players. This resulted in a large number of South African players joining county sides. The EU re-ruled on the agreement in 2008, and stated that the agreement did not allow free movement of labour. Those players who had held a valid work permit for four years were allowed the same rights as EU citizens, but others would have to be registered as overseas players to continue to participate in county cricket.

    Currently, each county is only allowed one overseas player registered at any one time to compete in the County Championship and the Clydesdale Bank 40 competitions, and two at a time in the Friends Life t20.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Harrias/Overseas_players_in_English_county_cricket

    Is Gordon Brown and the British Government racist?

    Brown stands by British jobs for British workers remark

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/jan/30/brown-british-jobs-workers

    Is Greg Dyke and the FA racist?

    FA May Limit Foreign Players in English Premier League

    FA chairman Greg Dyke has proposed that each team should only be allowed to have a maximum of two non-European Union players so that home talent can be bolstered.

    http://sports.ndtv.com/football/news/223959-fa-may-limit-foreign-players-in-english-premier-league
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    Of course farage didn't just come out and say this yesterday for publicity as some gullibly (or want to) believe

    The programme the interview is taken from is on ch 4 next week. 'The things we won't say about race that are true' by Trevor Phillips

    'Phillips said he had got on well with Farage during the interview and they had a good conversation, but he declined to elaborate at this point on what he thought of the Ukip leader’s position. A Ukip aide also said the two men had got on very well.

    In publicity material released before the screening, Channel 4’s head of specialist factual, David Glover, said: “This film contains some very uncomfortable facts about race. Trevor Phillips now strongly believes that it’s important to get them out there, so ultimately we can understand and tackle them.

    “Trevor is arguably the best-qualified person in the country to examine these issues. What’s fascinating is that, having thought so deeply about them, he now has a very different approach to the subject than he used to.” '

    Phillips Seems to me to be someone who was a proponent of multiculturalism and right on laws but has seen the light and now considers them a hindrance. We shall have to watch the programme to see I guess

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/12/nigel-farage-british-muslim-fifth-column-fuels-immigration-fear-ukip?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296
    Next week Nige will be hinting about 'voluntary' repatriation.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    BBC - "UKIP would scrap much of the legislation designed to prevent racial discrimination in work, party leader Nigel Farage has said.

    He was speaking in a Channel 4 documentary to be shown next week.

    Downing Street said his comments were "deeply concerning", while Labour branded them "shocking".

    Mr Farage told the BBC his remarks, recorded last autumn, had been "wilfully misinterpreted", saying he was talking about nationality not race."
  • JohnO said:

    Next week Nige will be hinting about 'voluntary' repatriation.

    Reckless already got there

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/nov/19/mark-reckless-immigration-row-rochester-byelection
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496
    Surprised Carswell would be happy with this?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496
    Is MORI happening today?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,353
    Reports that a certain Mr Carswell of Clacton is sitting just a little bit more uncomfortably today....
  • Does this really count as "dog whistle" politics? It's more like "whistle" politics, or possibly "fog horn" politics.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    Has Marf drawn a picture of UKIP's campaign office?
  • Does this really count as "dog whistle" politics? It's more like "whistle" politics, or possibly "fog horn" politics.

    More Foghorn Leghorn
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,368
    edited March 2015
    For Ukip? I suspect it wasn't intended as anything, but a certain group will make it a small win for Ukip.

    If Farage were to say that today was Thursday, this group would scream 'racist bigot' at him.

    One of Ukip's selling points is that they are unfairly derided. I well remember when Ken Livingstone was just beginning in national politics. His enemies made him out to be the devil incarnate. Yet when interviewed, he came across as a charming man with well-argued belief's. OK, he kept his real views well hidden but it meant that the Tories lost all credibility.

    I'm not suggesting Nigel is hiding anything; the point is he can point to the demented utterances of his enemies and that will do the job for him. It's almost as if they have an allergic reaction to anything Ukip says or does. No wonder many of the real criticisms can be ignored.

    Mr Dancer, I regularly get Amazon suggestions for e-books to read. Last week, among the three recommendations was "An ever rolling stream" - the book wot I wrote. Very odd. Does this happen to you?
  • Farage was on Today and was very clear that he was referring to Nationality and not race. However, he also said that the interview was last September - is it possible that he thinks he was talking not about race but when its played back it sounds worse than he remembers?

    Because "lets protect the rights of British workers of all creeds" sounds like a positive. But I imagine he didn't make it that clear....
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?
  • Farage has replied to Dave's tweet

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_4-0bUW8AAWPHC.png
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    It seems like this is one of those situations where Nigel Farage says something misguided, but the overreaction makes him seem like the sympathetic figure. When you watch the actual video of Nigel Farage being interviewed, he makes a point of saying UKIP are colour blind and concedes there was racism 40 years ago, so it does not ring true when people are saying this makes him a shocking racist.

    It gladdens me as a Conservative that our party seems to now get how this dynamic works. David Cameron has struck exactly the right tone: Farage's naivety causes concern, but it is nothing to get into a flap over. As another poster said further below, Labour are playing a dangerous game given they back race quotas themselves.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Farage is securing his base amongst his coalition of elderly Express readers and mopping up any far right fascists who would have gone to the BNP not so long ago.A core vote strategy worthy of any Establishment party.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
  • I'm trying to work out exactly how his British Born Policy would work with regards to the likes of Boris Johnson and Nadim Zahawai?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Farage has replied to Dave's tweet

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_4-0bUW8AAWPHC.png

    Dreadful use of "u" instead of "you" - I thought Nige was of good stock ?

    Nige can see the writing on the wall - 3 MPs is not a good result - this is not waving...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,146
    Sean_F said:

    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.

    Does this mean I'll be able to specifically ask only for immigrants - you know "Native Brits need not apply?"
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Reports that a certain Mr Carswell of Clacton is sitting just a little bit more uncomfortably today....

    GIN1138 said:

    Surprised Carswell would be happy with this?


    Must be feeling like a lobster in a pot.

    Farage has confused the issue though. He says "I didn't mention race at all. There was no part of that interview which I ever said it at all." Even the 1965 Act dealt with them together, because many people of different nationalities would simply argue that their racial background was to blame. If you have a bar that says you cannot be Indian, for example, it will disproportionately affect people who are not white.

    In any case, "when asked if he would retain a ban on discrimination on the grounds of race or colour, he said: "No... because we take the view, we are colour-blind. We as a party are colour-blind." Those are comments clearly directed at race.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,447
    Sean_F said:

    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.

    Perhaps but boy oh boy was Farage careless with his wording. Many people will read it as him advocating making it legal to discriminate based on skin colour again.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496
    edited March 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Farage has replied to Dave's tweet

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_4-0bUW8AAWPHC.png

    Dreadful use of "u" instead of "you" - I thought Nige was of good stock ?

    Nige can see the writing on the wall - 3 MPs is not a good result - this is not waving...
    Sometimes you have to shorten words on Twitter because of the 140 character limit.

    What he should have done though instead of writing "unsurprising that U don't care" he should have wrote "unsurprising you don't care"

    You have to know which words are important and which aren't on Twitter. In this sentence "that" was expandable but "you" was vital.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    This reminds me of this article someone linked to yesterday. Farage has [possibly] said one thing, or another, and assumption creep is now kicking in to accuse him of a whole bunch of other stuff. I might disagree strongly with what Farage said - I normally do - but it's hard to tell when what he said is buried under a heap of obfuscation and innuendo.

    It's a deeply lame way to conduct political debate and it's one of the reasons why I'll be quite pleased to see UKIP do well in May, even though I disagree with most of what they stand for.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,146
    As an aside, sorry @Socrates isn't around anymore, because his contention was that employers were prejudiced against British workers.
  • As for what Farage has said I agree that British employers should be allowed to choose British workers over overseas workers. If there should be a perk to being a British citizen it should be that they can expect to be provided work before overseas workers.It is no different to other countries or indeed EU nations.Farage is only really targetting the EU and free movemment of Labour once again in reality.

    I would not necessarily advocate changes in equality laws without knowing exactly what they were. There are still pockets of legacy racism and also new forms of racism springing up as a result of the open immigration policies that the Government has indulged in over recent decades and until such matters are addressed it could be risky changing certain equality laws. However, that said Farage is right that it is no longer the 1950's things have moved on and there may be a requirement to revise the rules.

    However I believe we should aspire towards a colour blind society and at some point the 'equality zealots' are going to have to stop clinging to race as some sort of comfort blanket. By persisting to discriminate between British citizens on the basis of their race as many equality zealots do they are being just as divisive and damaging in their persistence in their discriminations as those who harbour ill feeling towards any race.

    As to whether Farage will benefit or suffer as a result of this I think it much depends on the response. If it continues along the lines of the weak and insubstantial Downing Street response or the hysterical Sadiq Khan response then he will benefit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.

    Does this mean I'll be able to specifically ask only for immigrants - you know "Native Brits need not apply?"
    I don't think I'd go as far as repealing everything, but I'd want to end curbs on speech, whether directly through legislation, or indirectly through things like university speech codes; scrap ethnic monitoring and targets; end the public sector equality duty.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,224
    Sean_F said:

    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.

    You would think that, fifties boy.

    If Farage did say 'British born', then it's fairly indefensible.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    'Great use of the number 2 and letters U & R there, showing he can think on his feet and move with the times... Modern Britain etc etc'
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Note how young voters have different priorities.

    Which of the following do you think should be the biggest priorities for the government at the present time?
    Choose three.Options 18 to 24-years-olds Great British Public

    Managing the NHS 42% 50%
    Keeping down the cost of everyday items, such as food, energy and travel 33% 23%
    Controlling immigration 28% 49%
    Improving the education system 24% 9%
    Improving housing affordability 23% 11%
    Promoting UK economic growth 20% 20%
    Making the welfare system fairer 18% 17%
    Making sure that the benefits of economic growth are felt by all 15% 22%
    Reducing crime and anti-social behaviour 15% 10%
    Reducing the Government's budget deficit 11% 21%
    Redefining Britain's relationship with the EU 8% 18%
    Providing adequate care for the elderly 8% 14%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/31822531
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    LOL

    Clarkson suspension just had nearly 10 minutes on CNN international and is also on the CNN breaking news ticker

    On CNN live !!!! FFS

    BBc fecked


    Haha

    #edsnothuman

  • Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    @Pulpstar
    Sorry I replied to your earlier comment and discovered that we have now moved forward not one but two threads!

    I would not vote Labour because of Ed Balls but I respect his intellect and knowledge. I want leadership smarter and better informed than me. Not a high bar by any means but many politicians seem to struggle (at least in my subjective judgement). Balls is certainly not one of them. A Labour party led by him would at least not have had any of this blank sheet of paper nonsense and just might have produced something like a coherent alternative.

    On thread I thought Farage was ok about this on Today this morning. His jibe about Gordon Brown saying "British jobs for British workers" but him actually meaning it was well placed. I don't see this doing him any harm in his target market.

    Good cartoon though. One of Marf's best.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872

    Sean_F said:

    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.

    You would think that, fifties boy.

    If Farage did say 'British born', then it's fairly indefensible.
    Certainly, plenty of PB Tories have expressed unhappiness with much of equalities law and practice from time to time.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656

    I'm trying to work out exactly how his British Born Policy would work with regards to the likes of Boris Johnson and Nadim Zahawai?

    As Boris Johnson was born a British citizen, I imagine he would be protected. Nadim Zahawi was not, so would be allowed to be discriminated against.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @IanDunt: 'BNP in blazers': Race rows risk Ukip's return to the fringes http://t.co/F1yr0rEtHk via @politics_co_uk
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Great that people on here, and David Cameron, said it was Farage 'attention seeking' when it was from an interview last autumn with a leading race relations expert for a TV programme
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    The UK trade deficit has narrowed to £616m in January from a five-year high of £2.1bn in December, latest figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.

    Imports decreased by £2.5bn from December 2014, the largest monthly decrease since July 2006.

    The large decrease in imports was mainly due to a £1.3bn fall in the imports of fuels, specifically oil.

    Imports of oil were £2.2bn in January, their lowest level since May 2009.

    Excluding the impact of falling oil prices on the trade deficit, which also led to a decline of UK fuel exports, the balance of trade in goods excluding oil also narrowed to a deficit of £7.8bn.

    That was the lowest monthly deficit in goods since June 2013.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31849614
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.

    It won't have a big impact on polling. But it will marginalise UKIP in terms of makign it mroe difficult to move to the mainstream at Westminster.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @kle4 - Fundamentally, though, the Twickenham voter is deciding that *he* will be represented by someone outside the constituency. Everyone else in his constituency may end up with sub-optimal local representation as a result but doesn't get the "upside" from the 'better' national distribution.

    @MarkSenior - no, neither of your examples are comparable. The owner-occupier of two houses has legitimate interests in two constituencies and can select in which one to vote and be represented. The second example is clearly unethical - I don't know whether it is legal - but absolutely against the spirit of the rules.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    isam said:

    Great that people on here, and David Cameron, said it was Farage 'attention seeking' when it was from an interview last autumn with a leading race relations expert for a TV programme

    A fair point although, somewhat ironically, it has given him attention after a fairly long period of being largely ignored.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Do any kippers here want the law changed so they can discriminate against British citizens who happen to have been born abroad?

    Or are they prepared to accept that St Nige might have made a mistake here?
  • JEO said:

    I'm trying to work out exactly how his British Born Policy would work with regards to the likes of Boris Johnson and Nadim Zahawai?

    As Boris Johnson was born a British citizen, I imagine he would be protected. Nadim Zahawi was not, so would be allowed to be discriminated against.
    That's what I was thinking but it would also discriminate against Mo Farrah.

    These are the sort of examples the media will use to support/attack the policy.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,224
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.

    You would think that, fifties boy.

    If Farage did say 'British born', then it's fairly indefensible.
    Certainly, plenty of PB Tories have expressed unhappiness with much of equalities law and practice from time to time.
    There's a big difference between expressing unhappiness with 'much of' (surely 'aspects of') the laws and axing those laws.

    Besides, the group 'PB Tories' is now so broad as to be fairly meaningless. I mean, even the excellent Polruan is now one of us. ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Marmite politician goes for marmite.

    Daily Mail crowd love it, twitter crowd hate it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    Is the EU and the Test & County Cricket Board racist?

    O/T I was listening to Today this morning & they do a segment on 'this day in history'

    They noted that 'this day X years ago' Andy Cooke scored a century against Bangladesh on the opening day of the test...

    I think they were just being mean...

    ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    Financier said:

    The UK trade deficit has narrowed to £616m in January from a five-year high of £2.1bn in December, latest figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.

    Imports decreased by £2.5bn from December 2014, the largest monthly decrease since July 2006.

    The large decrease in imports was mainly due to a £1.3bn fall in the imports of fuels, specifically oil.

    Imports of oil were £2.2bn in January, their lowest level since May 2009.

    Excluding the impact of falling oil prices on the trade deficit, which also led to a decline of UK fuel exports, the balance of trade in goods excluding oil also narrowed to a deficit of £7.8bn.

    That was the lowest monthly deficit in goods since June 2013.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31849614

    Did we all end our Christmas presents back or something?

    A reduction in the trade deficit (which is still not good of course) will have a positive effect on the GDP figure.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.
    UKIPs rise has followed a pattern of surges, followed by a gentle drift down, but each time the gentle drift down has been to a higher level than the previous one. This is rather like waves rolling in and out as the tide comes in.

    We have yet to see the UKIP tide turn.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Marf's cartoon is very blunt today and slightly uncomforting.

    An excellent effort.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    JohnO said:

    Next week Nige will be hinting about 'voluntary' repatriation.

    That's already HMG policy.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/oct/22/go-home-billboards-pulled
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.

    You really are clueless aren't you. My post was a joke because Nadhim Zahawi was one of the founders of Yougov.

    As for you 'analysis' as I have repeatedly pointed out UKIP has over the past three years had peak support during election times when they have high levels of press coverage. The last of these was during the period of the two by election victories in August to October (which also coincided with its first televised conference). After each peak support fall ways to a certain level and then stabilises at a higher level than previously. After the county council elections inn 2013 it settled in the range of 9-11 points, last July/ August after the Euros it settled at 11-13 points. Now it has settled in the range of 13-15 points.

    You can kid yourself that the UKIP threat is over but there nothing yet that suggests their support is not continuing the same trend that it has followed for the last two years.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    PS It is hysterical responses like yours that make UKIPs future look assured.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I heard that Newsnight put out some seat projections last night, any idea of the polling company they used?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.
    UKIPs rise has followed a pattern of surges, followed by a gentle drift down, but each time the gentle drift down has been to a higher level than the previous one. This is rather like waves rolling in and out as the tide comes in.

    We have yet to see the UKIP tide turn.
    He is an after timer, he won't understand
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    I'm not sure Farage should be seeking to defend his policy position in packets of 140 characters or fewer.

    "@Nigel_Farage tweets: .@Ed_Miliband The laws don't represent these values, Ed. The British people do. We believe in Britain. You believe in bureaucracy."

    So the race discrimination laws have to go because they're bureaucratic? hm...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Alistair said:

    I heard that Newsnight put out some seat projections last night, any idea of the polling company they used?

    What were they ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.

    You really are clueless aren't you. My post was a joke because Nadhim Zahawi was one of the founders of Yougov.

    As for you 'analysis' as I have repeatedly pointed out UKIP has over the past three years had peak support during election times when they have high levels of press coverage. The last of these was during the period of the two by election victories in August to October (which also coincided with its first televised conference). After each peak support fall ways to a certain level and then stabilises at a higher level than previously. After the county council elections inn 2013 it settled in the range of 9-11 points, last July/ August after the Euros it settled at 11-13 points. Now it has settled in the range of 13-15 points.

    You can kid yourself that the UKIP threat is over but there nothing yet that suggests their support is not continuing the same trend that it has followed for the last two years.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    PS It is hysterical responses like yours that make UKIPs future look assured.
    Great idea to ignore the negative party and leader polling ratings that Nige is racking up. It worked so well for Ed Miliband.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    I don't know whether I find Farage pandering to racists in the guise of removing PC more or less unattractive than our Bullingdon Boy PM voicing his support for a fellow Chipping Norton Setter after he smacked an underling for not supplying a hot dinner.
  • @Ed_Miliband: I think Nigel Farage's comments today are wrong, divisive and dangerous. The laws we have on equality represent our values as a country.

    @Nigel_Farage: .@Ed_Miliband The laws don't represent these values, Ed. The British people do. We believe in Britain. You believe in bureaucracy.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,176
    edited March 2015

    UKIPs rise has followed a pattern of surges, followed by a gentle drift down, but each time the gentle drift down has been to a higher level than the previous one. This is rather like waves rolling in and out as the tide comes in.

    We have yet to see the UKIP tide turn.

    And with the short campaign looming on the horizon we're about to see a large uplift in coverage of UKIP and specifically Farage. I'm of the view that when its campaign time and Farage gets airtime, their vote goes up. When its not and the only coverage they get is of the batshit crazy elements of their membership, their vote goes down.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015

    Do any kippers here want the law changed so they can discriminate against British citizens who happen to have been born abroad?

    Or are they prepared to accept that St Nige might have made a mistake here?

    Now it depends by which definition of British you wish to base the debate. Now does 'British born' mean 'born on British soil' or 'born of parents who are British citizens'.

    Whichever way I think Farage might have been rather clumsy with his language.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,131
    Saw a snippet of Sky News just now.

    Just a guess, but I don't think this'll harm Farage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Labour is caught in a complete bind between it's Northern voters who fancy a bit of Farage, it's London metropoles who find him utterly disgusting and Scotland where the SNP can utterly hammer Labour from the left.

    Quite aside from any Conservative worries.
  • Roger said:

    I don't know whether I find Farage pandering to racists in the guise of removing PC more or less unattractive than our Bullingdon Boy PM voicing his support for a fellow Chipping Norton Setter after he smacked an underling for not supplying a hot dinner.

    Allegedly smacked.

    Plus what about Labour and Blair when they kept Prescott on after he punched a voter.

    That must have made Labour unattractive to you as the love child of Quasimodo and Iain Dowie.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.

    You really are clueless aren't you. My post was a joke because Nadhim Zahawi was one of the founders of Yougov.

    As for you 'analysis' as I have repeatedly pointed out UKIP has over the past three years had peak support during election times when they have high levels of press coverage. The last of these was during the period of the two by election victories in August to October (which also coincided with its first televised conference). After each peak support fall ways to a certain level and then stabilises at a higher level than previously. After the county council elections inn 2013 it settled in the range of 9-11 points, last July/ August after the Euros it settled at 11-13 points. Now it has settled in the range of 13-15 points.

    You can kid yourself that the UKIP threat is over but there nothing yet that suggests their support is not continuing the same trend that it has followed for the last two years.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    PS It is hysterical responses like yours that make UKIPs future look assured.
    Great idea to ignore the negative party and leader polling ratings that Nige is racking up. It worked so well for Ed Miliband.


    You can kid yourself that the UKIP threat is over but there is nothing yet that suggests their support is not continuing the same trend that it has followed for the last two years.

    It only matters if it effects the topline figures.

    PS And until UKIP and Farage's positive ratings start slipping below his vote share there is always going to be potential for the party to advance. UKIP is not going to takeover the country tomorrow but it just might take another couple of steps forward.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    I heard that Newsnight put out some seat projections last night, any idea of the polling company they used?

    What were they ?
    Con 295
    Lab 267
    LD 24
    UKIP 1
    Grn. 1
    SNP. 42
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    UKIPs rise has followed a pattern of surges, followed by a gentle drift down, but each time the gentle drift down has been to a higher level than the previous one. This is rather like waves rolling in and out as the tide comes in.

    We have yet to see the UKIP tide turn.

    And with the short campaign looming on the horizon we're about to see a large uplift in coverage of UKIP and specifically Farage. I'm of the view that when its campaign time and Farage gets airtime, their vote goes up. When its not and the only coverage they get is of the batshit crazy elements of their membership, their vote goes down.
    Possibly - but the party ratings polling evidence is there to suggest that Nige has built a ceiling for the Kippers and is busy fitting new layers of plasterboard to continue to lower it.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    On topic: UKIP most definitely out of hibernation.
  • Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    I heard that Newsnight put out some seat projections last night, any idea of the polling company they used?

    What were they ?
    Con 295
    Lab 267
    LD 24
    UKIP 1
    Grn. 1
    SNP. 42
    That's close to election forecasts prediction.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Saw a snippet of Sky News just now.

    Just a guess, but I don't think this'll harm Farage.

    Of course not.... We have seen it all before, breast feeding, rough diamonds etc... normal people agree, party fanatics don't, and also get excited because they think they're onto something.

    Someone they don't like does something that reinforces their dislike and they wrongly assume the whole country agrees with them
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015

    Roger said:

    I don't know whether I find Farage pandering to racists in the guise of removing PC more or less unattractive than our Bullingdon Boy PM voicing his support for a fellow Chipping Norton Setter after he smacked an underling for not supplying a hot dinner.

    Allegedly smacked.

    Plus what about Labour and Blair when they kept Prescott on after he punched a voter.

    That must have made Labour unattractive to you as the love child of Quasimodo and Iain Dowie.
    Yes, but to a Labour supporter, Prescott's punch was a 'good' slap.

    It helps to view it in the same way as phone hacking - industrial levels by The Mirror, barely gets a murmur versus smaller scale by the NOTW, screams of 'Shut the entire company down!'
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082



    Plus what about Labour and Blair when they kept Prescott on after he punched a voter.

    That must have made Labour unattractive to you as the love child of Quasimodo and Iain Dowie.

    Slightly different scenarios - retaliating to a physical assault by a stranger in the street vs physically assaulting an underling for not bringing you dinner on time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    TGOHF said:

    UKIPs rise has followed a pattern of surges, followed by a gentle drift down, but each time the gentle drift down has been to a higher level than the previous one. This is rather like waves rolling in and out as the tide comes in.

    We have yet to see the UKIP tide turn.

    And with the short campaign looming on the horizon we're about to see a large uplift in coverage of UKIP and specifically Farage. I'm of the view that when its campaign time and Farage gets airtime, their vote goes up. When its not and the only coverage they get is of the batshit crazy elements of their membership, their vote goes down.
    Possibly - but the party ratings polling evidence is there to suggest that Nige has built a ceiling for the Kippers and is busy fitting new layers of plasterboard to continue to lower it.

    The current ceiling is 25%-30%. Those who would "seriously consider" voting UKIP. That's fine for a party that's coming from 3% in 2010.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,131
    Mr. Isam, I think most people believe that their own perspective is common sense and more widely held than it actually is.

    I'm given to understand that some people don't actually read classical history, baffling and bizarre as that is.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    Heard Nige on R4 this morning and he seems particularly in favour of British born workers. Is his proposal really to discriminate between them and British passport holders born abroad?

    @nadhimzahawi: I'm not British Born Mr @Nigel_Farage I am as British as u r. Yr comments r offensive&racist. I wld b frightened 2live in country run by U.
    A sudden drop in UKIPs vote share on Yougov may be on the cards?
    No.

    Look back to the conference and all the bad news stories - Kippers were adamant that this would not impact their polling. Well a drift down since Sept suggests otherwise.

    The Kipper brand may have reached a level of toxicity above which it doesn't matter as vote identifiers don't care how rancid the brand is.

    So if there is an accelerated drift it wont be rapid - check back in 4-6 weeks.

    You really are clueless aren't you. My post was a joke because Nadhim Zahawi was one of the founders of Yougov.

    As for you 'analysis' as I have repeatedly pointed out UKIP has over the past three years had peak support during election times when they have high levels of press coverage. The last of these was during the period of the two by election victories in August to October (which also coincided with its first televised conference). After each peak support fall ways to a certain level and then stabilises at a higher level than previously. After the county council elections inn 2013 it settled in the range of 9-11 points, last July/ August after the Euros it settled at 11-13 points. Now it has settled in the range of 13-15 points.

    You can kid yourself that the UKIP threat is over but there nothing yet that suggests their support is not continuing the same trend that it has followed for the last two years.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

    PS It is hysterical responses like yours that make UKIPs future look assured.
    Great idea to ignore the negative party and leader polling ratings that Nige is racking up. It worked so well for Ed Miliband.


    You can kid yourself that the UKIP threat is over but there nothing yet that suggests their support is not continuing the same trend that it has followed for the last two years.
    Look typing it in bold may make you feel better but it's not my polling data.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/category/leader-approval-ratings/

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Eagle

    Had Jeremy smacked someone who threw an egg at him for no reason then I too would offer him my support
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JWisemann said:



    Plus what about Labour and Blair when they kept Prescott on after he punched a voter.

    That must have made Labour unattractive to you as the love child of Quasimodo and Iain Dowie.

    Slightly different scenarios - retaliating to a physical assault by a stranger in the street vs physically assaulting an underling for not bringing you dinner on time.
    You can't even get the allegation right.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2015
    I agree with Mike that this is potentially quite an explosive comment by Farage, although the attacks on Farage over it are rather disingenuous. There's nothing racist about what he said, it's more that he is taking a libertarian view of minimising state interference. As it happens, I personally have a lot of sympathy with that view, but I think it's not at all a popular view, and it will easily be portrayed by those who dislike Farage as approval for discrimination on race grounds.

    All in all, a significant mis-step by Farage in a very sensitive area, I'd say.

    Edit: Great cartoon, BTW!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour is caught in a complete bind between it's Northern voters who fancy a bit of Farage, it's London metropoles who find him utterly disgusting and Scotland where the SNP can utterly hammer Labour from the left.

    Quite aside from any Conservative worries.

    Long-term, possibly, but short-term, which are the northern seats we reckon this kind of stuff is going to lose them? From what I can make out we're not really seeing the kind of numbers needed for substantial Lab-UKIP losses, Lib have gone away and in Lab-Con seats UKIP damage Con just as much or more.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    I heard that Newsnight put out some seat projections last night, any idea of the polling company they used?

    What were they ?
    Con 295
    Lab 267
    LD 24
    UKIP 1
    Grn. 1
    SNP. 42
    Election Forecast.

    Note this Lib Dem score on their model assumes they will get 13.4% of the vote.

    Their current scores for Bath are Con 33 Lib Dem 35....

    No incumbency, split Lib Dem vote there.....

    If you believe in their model then 7-2 Conservative is worth a punt, however I won't add to my £5 at 6-1, but I won't arb it at 1-5 either ;)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Those who despise Farage will be clutching their pearls and reaching for the smelling salts.

    Those who support him will either think 'maybe he expressed it a bit clumsily, but his heart is in the right place', at the very worst, or more likely, 'whats the fuss about?'

    Comments that reinforce existing beliefs or prejudices rarely move polls.
  • Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    UKIPs rise has followed a pattern of surges, followed by a gentle drift down, but each time the gentle drift down has been to a higher level than the previous one. This is rather like waves rolling in and out as the tide comes in.

    We have yet to see the UKIP tide turn.

    And with the short campaign looming on the horizon we're about to see a large uplift in coverage of UKIP and specifically Farage. I'm of the view that when its campaign time and Farage gets airtime, their vote goes up. When its not and the only coverage they get is of the batshit crazy elements of their membership, their vote goes down.
    Possibly - but the party ratings polling evidence is there to suggest that Nige has built a ceiling for the Kippers and is busy fitting new layers of plasterboard to continue to lower it.

    The current ceiling is 25%-30%. Those who would "seriously consider" voting UKIP. That's fine for a party that's coming from 3% in 2010.
    Just imagine if they polled 25%? It would be a massive achievement and with it how many seats would they take 20? 30?. It would be phenomenal.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour is caught in a complete bind between it's Northern voters who fancy a bit of Farage, it's London metropoles who find him utterly disgusting and Scotland where the SNP can utterly hammer Labour from the left.

    Quite aside from any Conservative worries.

    Labour's Woolas dilemma.
    It's worth remembering that Phil's strategy was electorally successful and he was rewarded for it with a promotion by EdM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738
    Note that Electionforecast has both Cambridge and Hallam as fairly resolute Lib Dem holds currently too. (21% and 12% chance of going)

  • Those who despise Farage will be clutching their pearls and reaching for the smelling salts.

    Those who support him will either think 'maybe he expressed it a bit clumsily, but his heart is in the right place', at the very worst, or more likely, 'whats the fuss about?'

    Comments that reinforce existing beliefs or prejudices rarely move polls.

    Sometimes they do.

    After breastfeeding and Kerry Smith Farage saw a substantial drop in his leader ratings which fed into the UKIP polling in subsequent months.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    I think there is sufficient public unhappiness with much of the law and practice around equal opportunities in this country to make this a positive for UKIP.

    Does this mean I'll be able to specifically ask only for immigrants - you know "Native Brits need not apply?"
    I don't think I'd go as far as repealing everything, but I'd want to end curbs on speech, whether directly through legislation, or indirectly through things like university speech codes; scrap ethnic monitoring and targets; end the public sector equality duty.

    I sent an email via my council's website the other day (I was notifying them of a broken link). Their contact form had a stage 2 asking me to classify myself by race.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,131
    Miss Vance, I agree on polls being unmoved but it could alter certainty to vote and perhaps encourage some tactical voting against UKIP/Farage [and, in some areas, for the party].
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Note that Electionforecast has both Cambridge and Hallam as fairly resolute Lib Dem holds currently too. (21% and 12% chance of going)

    Huppert still available at 5/6 - free money territory ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,738

    Those who despise Farage will be clutching their pearls and reaching for the smelling salts.

    Those who support him will either think 'maybe he expressed it a bit clumsily, but his heart is in the right place', at the very worst, or more likely, 'whats the fuss about?'

    Comments that reinforce existing beliefs or prejudices rarely move polls.

    Sometimes they do.

    After breastfeeding and Kerry Smith Farage saw a substantial drop in his leader ratings which fed into the UKIP polling in subsequent months.
    That one was a bit of a boob.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Those who despise Farage will be clutching their pearls and reaching for the smelling salts.

    Those who support him will either think 'maybe he expressed it a bit clumsily, but his heart is in the right place', at the very worst, or more likely, 'whats the fuss about?'

    Comments that reinforce existing beliefs or prejudices rarely move polls.

    Sometimes they do.

    After breastfeeding and Kerry Smith Farage saw a substantial drop in his leader ratings which fed into the UKIP polling in subsequent months.
    That one was a bit of a boob.
    I was tempted to headline that piece "Has Farage made a tit of himself"
This discussion has been closed.