politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates
Yesterday I received the full media briefing on the controversial private LD polling which has attracted a lot of attention. I was able to ask about any seat and have a pretty good picture of how things are looking.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I am still pretty happy with my guess of 28 Lib Dems.
But he`s a racist and played diva once too often.
Also, if the Lib Dems have conducted 120 polls, they have more than one in each constituency, so why haven't we seen the other polls from Hornsey and Wood Green? The answer is pretty obvious.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/mar/10/50-rise-in-long-term-unemployed-youngsters-from-uk-ethnic-minorities
She will have done spectacularly well if this seat is close.
Whilst Lynne Featherstone has built up a decent brand, has 'Gerald Vernon-Jackson' -
11-10 Portsmouth South for the Tories seems decent enough.
"Four and twenty Lib Dems came down from Inverness
And when the votes are counted there'll be four and twenty less"
(I know, it should be fewer, not less!)
My guess is that we will have a minority government. That worked surprisingly well in the first SNP administration here in Scotland. Some of the dafter policies we have seen since the SNP got a majority were put on hold, fairly sensible discussions took place about the budget and a broader consensus was reached on the allocation of priorities. Not much use if you think you need radical change but good enough for steady as she goes.
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
I guess it saves wasting ink on stories about the devastation News International Mirror Group phone hacking did to those affected.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31828900
Mildly surprised. Seems he'll drive for Sauber in Australia. I suspect (just a feeling) Nasr will be the one dropped, albeit temporarily (probably). He's 2.62 Not To Be Classified, if you feel so inclined.
Edited extra bit: and good morning, everyone.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.
OTOH as even the Indy points out Margaret Hodge is perhaps not best placed to do the shouting.
What do PBers think the tory lead would need to be in terms of vote percentage over Labour for the following scenarios.
1) Most Seats
2) Functional Minority or Coalition Government
3) Majority
My guess would be
1) 2-3%
2) 5%
3) 7%
Obviously it depends on how many seats the Nats / Lib Dems / UKIP take. Im working on the basis of something like 45-50/20-25/3-5.
4%
7%
That's my unhelpful prediction.
Somehow just can't imagine EdM doing that. trying not to visualise it as am enjoying breakfast.
Yes, I think he was the council leader and is quite well known locally. His Tory opponent is also quite well known, not least for being thrown off Winchester council a while back for missing 6 months of meetings.
13:30 Nichols Canyon
14.05 Southfield Theatre *
14:40 Aux Ptits Soins *
15:20 Sire De Grugy
16:00 Sire Collonges *
16:40 All Yours
17:15 Pylonthepressure
* will back these as a Patent
lickablelikeable.https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Just look at Prince Philip......
Given the worldwide popularity of top gear, the trio could just start their own rip off show and sell it direct to the networks/amazon/sony/netflix.
The top gear "brand" is nothing without all three of them.
"Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them."
BBC always seemed a bad fit for Top Gear. A laddish programme on the most politically correct channel ever. I'm surprised it lasted so long.
On that basis I said more than 6 months ago that D&G was a good bet. The Labour vote in Scotland is coming down big time from 2010. The Tories just need to stand still and pray that they don't get overtaken by the SNP in the fast lane (as is very likely to happen in Kincardine).
I agree, there's very little to stop Clarkson et al. simply making their millions elsewhere, losing the BBC a vast amount of revenue.
Mr. Wells at Polling Report is none too impressed.
Neither should we.
He is well liked by the global viewers because he is politically incorrect, says what he thinks and is quite unambiguous.
However the BeeB Guardianistas must be holding their noses every time the royalties roll in which pays for a lot of their very large salaries and pensions. Surely they are not that principled that they are prepared to risk all those personal financial benefits for the odd political incorrectness. Perhaps its is that Clarkson is right wing that really gets up their collective noses - tissues all-round when the P45s are issued then.
Edited extra bit: Clarkson-related topics dominate the top 10 on Twitter right now [about half of them are on the subject].
The Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods (WISERD) asked 500 secondary school pupils for their opinions on politics.
The survey also found nearly 90% said it mattered who ran the country after May's general election.
Of the teenagers polled:
23% said politics affected their life "a lot"
47% said "a bit"
30% said "not at all"
Half of those polled had one particular issue they cared passionately about, including school being too stressful, badger culling and dairy prices for farmers.....
Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and the Green Party all support the idea of offering 16 and 17-year-olds a vote in general elections, but the Tories and UKIP favour the current threshold of 18.
42% thought the voting age should be lowered to 16
49% thought it should not
8% said they did not know
A third said they would not vote in the general election, even if they could.
Things like austerity, Europe and electoral reform didn't strike a chord with the vast majority of our respondents."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-31824693
Besides, even the most excellent chaps can be single.
Then there's no hope for me. I voted LD last time despite some reservations about Cleggy. But I decided I'd overlook his deficiencies because he had an attractive Catholic wife.
The pledge on tuition fees was silly but the fuss over it was sillier still. That's the trouble when you let children vote. Fortunately, most of them don't.
Back to work methinks.
Pretty full details of the Clarkson incident in the Rant.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2988412/Top-Gear-s-Jeremy-Clarkson-suspended-BBC-fracas-producer.html
In general the problem is the BBC hate cars because its against the pro-green pro-environment right on view. They hate people who are not politically correct. The would prefer it to be presented by three women, and be much more socially "relevant". In short there isn't much about TG that they like - except the money, and their hatred of all the rest seems to have overshadowed their common sense.
Or will they be too busy covering News International Mirror Group phone hacking?
Cameron at first showed a different face. These right wing hangers on didn't much like him. But yesterday that started to shift. Murdoch and Brooks and then Clarkson and now a petition by Guido Fawkes which tick all the boxes of an attack on the BBC. Next we get a Republican President and suddenly all the ducks are in a row. It's the time for the left to be very afraid. Birds of a feather just can't help sticking together
You voted for your local LD candidate because you fancied the leaders wife? And why does her being catholic matter? Does that make her *more* attractive to you?
Fascinating.
Incidentally the field work for this poll seems to be March 3rd so it is very recent .
Not just Greens but the remaining Labour voters will be flocking to the SNP banner.
The same could happen to Murphy, although there will be tactical voting in all directions there.