politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It can be argued that the flawed polls are those that don’t name candidates
Yesterday I received the full media briefing on the controversial private LD polling which has attracted a lot of attention. I was able to ask about any seat and have a pretty good picture of how things are looking.
Comments
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The Justine stunt was pure desperation0
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I mentioned a week ago that I had had lunch with a former PPC for the Lib Dems and he was indicating that there had been some recovery in Scotland from the abyss in December but whether that recovery is sufficient to save any seats south of Inverness remains to be seen.
I am still pretty happy with my guess of 28 Lib Dems.0 -
Like Jeremy Clarkson`s programs-
But he`s a racist and played diva once too often.
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As a general guide when something is described as a stunt that shows pure desperation it gas been effective.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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The Lib Dems need to know who has the local reputation such that makes saving them feasible. This polling may assist them with that. But I struggle to accept that asking about respondents' favourability towards named candidates then asking about polling intentions is a neutral way of presenting matters.
Also, if the Lib Dems have conducted 120 polls, they have more than one in each constituency, so why haven't we seen the other polls from Hornsey and Wood Green? The answer is pretty obvious.0 -
The Lib Dems may or may not be in a position to be coalition partners after May. They may not want to be. Other potential coalition partners will either be toxic (SNP) or not have enough seats and be toxic (UKIP, DUP, SF). Minority government may also be precluded by the numbers. So what would be the process for forming a grand coalition? Who would lead it? Which ministries would be given to the losing team? Would anyone want to be the junior partner after seeing what happened to the LibDems?DavidL said:I mentioned a week ago that I had had lunch with a former PPC for the Lib Dems and he was indicating that there had been some recovery in Scotland from the abyss in December but whether that recovery is sufficient to save any seats south of Inverness remains to be seen.
I am still pretty happy with my guess of 28 Lib Dems.0 -
Labour playing the race card
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/mar/10/50-rise-in-long-term-unemployed-youngsters-from-uk-ethnic-minorities
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SMukesh said:
Like Jeremy Clarkson`s programs-
But he`s a racist and played diva once too often.
Well ...effective in proving it was pure desperation yes. Why else was she wheeled out?MikeSmithson said:
As a general guide when something is described as a stunt that shows pure desperation it gas been effective.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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Quite simply they don't want to indicate anything to the Tories or Labour.antifrank said:The Lib Dems need to know who has the local reputation such that makes saving them feasible. This polling may assist them with that. But I struggle to accept that asking about respondents' favourability towards named candidates then asking about polling intentions is a neutral way of presenting matters.
Also, if the Lib Dems have conducted 120 polls, they have more than one in each constituency, so why haven't we seen the other polls from Hornsey and Wood Green? The answer is pretty obvious.
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FWIW (and I do have reservations) ElectionForecast show a 96% probability of the Lib Dems losing Hornsey by a margin of 8%.
She will have done spectacularly well if this seat is close.0 -
I'll wait to see the polls on that one. Obviously the stunt isn't pitched at people like me since we " roll our eyes" and think weak. But let's see if this actually changes any votes, the clash with Clarkson probably hasn't helped.MikeSmithson said:
As a general guide when something is described as a stunt that shows pure desperation it gas been effective.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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"She won the seat in 2005 and has built up a powerful personal support base that is directly linked to what she has done on the ground. Effectively she has become the brand not her party. "
Whilst Lynne Featherstone has built up a decent brand, has 'Gerald Vernon-Jackson' -
11-10 Portsmouth South for the Tories seems decent enough.0 -
At last - a chance for a song:DavidL said:I mentioned a week ago that I had had lunch with a former PPC for the Lib Dems and he was indicating that there had been some recovery in Scotland from the abyss in December but whether that recovery is sufficient to save any seats south of Inverness remains to be seen.
I am still pretty happy with my guess of 28 Lib Dems.
"Four and twenty Lib Dems came down from Inverness
And when the votes are counted there'll be four and twenty less"
(I know, it should be fewer, not less!)0 -
I agree that the Lib Dems have probably had enough of government for a while. If they are to survive as a party they need to go back to opposition, regroup, rebrand and get the Short Money for a few years. All this private polling must be costing them a fortune.logical_song said:
The Lib Dems may or may not be in a position to be coalition partners after May. They may not want to be. Other potential coalition partners will either be toxic (SNP) or not have enough seats and be toxic (UKIP, DUP, SF). Minority government may also be precluded by the numbers. So what would be the process for forming a grand coalition? Who would lead it? Which ministries would be given to the losing team? Would anyone want to be the junior partner after seeing what happened to the LibDems?DavidL said:I mentioned a week ago that I had had lunch with a former PPC for the Lib Dems and he was indicating that there had been some recovery in Scotland from the abyss in December but whether that recovery is sufficient to save any seats south of Inverness remains to be seen.
I am still pretty happy with my guess of 28 Lib Dems.
My guess is that we will have a minority government. That worked surprisingly well in the first SNP administration here in Scotland. Some of the dafter policies we have seen since the SNP got a majority were put on hold, fairly sensible discussions took place about the budget and a broader consensus was reached on the allocation of priorities. Not much use if you think you need radical change but good enough for steady as she goes.0 -
So where the LD incumbent is retiring, the chances are they'll give up on the seat. So in my patch that means Redcar goes Red and Berwick goes Blue. The Tory candidate in Berwick has been high profile for several years (often on the Sunday Politics, for example)- unlike the new LD candidate.0
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Clearly you don't know your Portsmouth politic. I think he is or was the council leader. rPulpstar said:"She won the seat in 2005 and has built up a powerful personal support base that is directly linked to what she has done on the ground. Effectively she has become the brand not her party. "
Whilst Lynne Featherstone has built up a decent brand, has 'Gerald Vernon-Jackson' -
11-10 Portsmouth South for the Tories seems decent enough.
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@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?0 -
You might want to think about leaving the song references to TSE.SandyRentool said:
At last - a chance for a song:DavidL said:I mentioned a week ago that I had had lunch with a former PPC for the Lib Dems and he was indicating that there had been some recovery in Scotland from the abyss in December but whether that recovery is sufficient to save any seats south of Inverness remains to be seen.
I am still pretty happy with my guess of 28 Lib Dems.
"Four and twenty Lib Dems came down from Inverness
And when the votes are counted there'll be four and twenty less"
(I know, it should be fewer, not less!)0 -
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them. Or using their children as props in carefully staged trips to the park.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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Margaret Hodge may be wise to be careful castigating others for what they didn't know:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it0 -
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.0 -
Of course it's a complete coincidence that the same day the Guardian has a story about Samantha Cameron profiting from her employment a decade ago.....no stunts here - no siree!Alanbrooke said:
I'll wait to see the polls on that one. Obviously the stunt isn't pitched at people like me since we " roll our eyes" and think weak. But let's see if this actually changes any votes, the clash with Clarkson probably hasn't helped.MikeSmithson said:
As a general guide when something is described as a stunt that shows pure desperation it gas been effective.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
I guess it saves wasting ink on stories about the devastation News International Mirror Group phone hacking did to those affected.....0 -
Do you think Mrs Putin took the Putin name ?TheWatcher said:
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them. Or using their children as props in carefully staged trips to the park.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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Some leaders' wives may be of passing electoral benefit to their husbands - depending on how MILFy they are. (PC lefties can avert their gaze now). I'd gently suggest that Cherie and Justine add precisely nothing to their men's allure whereas Samantha and Miriam are a bit phwoar and at least don't detract. As someone once quipped of Clinton: 'At least we can know he is sexually competent'. !!!TheWatcher said:
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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F1: Van Der Garde wins his case:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31828900
Mildly surprised. Seems he'll drive for Sauber in Australia. I suspect (just a feeling) Nasr will be the one dropped, albeit temporarily (probably). He's 2.62 Not To Be Classified, if you feel so inclined.
Edited extra bit: and good morning, everyone.0 -
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.0 -
Can you imagine Eck wheeling out his wife ?...TheWatcher said:
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them. Or using their children as props in carefully staged trips to the park.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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I find this a tricky one. On the one hand smug Banker types sitting there espousing corporate mea culpas for which no one should bear personal responsibility drives me a lot closer to violence than most things. If we can't lock them up for what they did to this country having someone shouting abuse at them is at least something.CarlottaVance said:Margaret Hodge may be wise to be careful castigating others for what they didn't know:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it
OTOH as even the Indy points out Margaret Hodge is perhaps not best placed to do the shouting.0 -
It's probable now with the Scotland situation and recent polling trends that the Tories are the only party that could possibly win the election with an overall majority (unknown events between now and the election not withstanding)
What do PBers think the tory lead would need to be in terms of vote percentage over Labour for the following scenarios.
1) Most Seats
2) Functional Minority or Coalition Government
3) Majority
My guess would be
1) 2-3%
2) 5%
3) 7%
Obviously it depends on how many seats the Nats / Lib Dems / UKIP take. Im working on the basis of something like 45-50/20-25/3-5.0 -
Which is part of the problem. Osborne has done nothing on smug bankers, it's one of the reasons I'm not voting blue this time round. As I've said before the Conservatives have "detoxed" on the wrong issues.DavidL said:
I find this a tricky one. On the one hand smug Banker types sitting there espousing corporate mea culpas for which no one should bear personal responsibility drives me a lot closer to violence than most things. If we can't lock them up for what they did to this country having someone shouting abuse at them is at least something.CarlottaVance said:Margaret Hodge may be wise to be careful castigating others for what they didn't know:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it
OTOH as even the Indy points out Margaret Hodge is perhaps not best placed to do the shouting.0 -
Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...
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1%Greenwich_Floater said:It's probable now with the Scotland situation and recent polling trends that the Tories are the only party that could possibly win the election with an overall majority (unknown events between now and the election not withstanding)
What do PBers think the tory lead would need to be in terms of vote percentage over Labour for the following scenarios.
1) Most Seats
2) Functional Minority or Coalition Government
3) Majority
My guess would be
1) 2-3%
2) 5%
3) 7%
Obviously it depends on how many seats the Nats / Lib Dems / UKIP take. Im working on the basis of something like 45-50/20-25/3-5.
4%
7%0 -
Gordon with Elvis was highly effective in the last campaign I recall.MikeSmithson said:
As a general guide when something is described as a stunt that shows pure desperation it gas been effective.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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I think we're going to learn a lot about the effectiveness (and predictive value) of individual constituency polling in may.
That's my unhelpful prediction.0 -
No, Putin is photographed bare (and barrel) chested whilst riding (and in control of ) a horse.TGOHF said:
Can you imagine Eck wheeling out his wife ?...TheWatcher said:
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them. Or using their children as props in carefully staged trips to the park.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
Somehow just can't imagine EdM doing that. trying not to visualise it as am enjoying breakfast.0 -
Wise words to look at the local base and how much 'work' the local MP has put in with the community..... one obvious reason Bercow was never going to lose to Farage last time around.0
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Sympathise or admire? Is it not more that, "well you might think X is a bit of a dork but look at this beautiful, clever and extremely successful woman who thought otherwise. Maybe you have misjudged him?"Alanbrooke said:
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.0 -
Well if looking as weak as dishwater , whilst getting your wife to say nice things about you was the intention then you are correct.MikeSmithson said:
As a general guide when something is described as a stunt that shows pure desperation it gas been effective.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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Another seat just down the road from where I live.MikeSmithson said:
Clearly you don't know your Portsmouth politic. I think he is or was the council leader. rPulpstar said:"She won the seat in 2005 and has built up a powerful personal support base that is directly linked to what she has done on the ground. Effectively she has become the brand not her party. "
Whilst Lynne Featherstone has built up a decent brand, has 'Gerald Vernon-Jackson' -
11-10 Portsmouth South for the Tories seems decent enough.
Yes, I think he was the council leader and is quite well known locally. His Tory opponent is also quite well known, not least for being thrown off Winchester council a while back for missing 6 months of meetings.0 -
Cleggy has certainly done well for himself. No matter how badly the coming election goes for him I won't feel to sorry for him with Miriam to go home to.Patrick said:
Some leaders' wives may be of passing electoral benefit to their husbands - depending on how MILFy they are. (PC lefties can avert their gaze now). I'd gently suggest that Cherie and Justine add precisely nothing to their men's allure whereas Samantha and Miriam are a bit phwoar and at least don't detract. As someone once quipped of Clinton: 'At least we can know he is sexually competent'. !!!TheWatcher said:
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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Correct it is just patheticTheWatcher said:
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them. Or using their children as props in carefully staged trips to the park.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
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It could equally be argued that the flawed opinion polls are the ones that DO name the candidate0
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Looks like a tough day at Cheltenham today. My horses for all races but only backing a few today , going for a Paul Nicholls day today.
13:30 Nichols Canyon
14.05 Southfield Theatre *
14:40 Aux Ptits Soins *
15:20 Sire De Grugy
16:00 Sire Collonges *
16:40 All Yours
17:15 Pylonthepressure
* will back these as a Patent0 -
Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge. An affront to the very notion of democracy © The English Press0
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Maybe they should leave candidates' names off the ballot paper?Paul_Mid_Beds said:It could equally be argued that the flawed opinion polls are the ones that DO name the candidate
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If we are not having a leaders' debate, why not one for the spouses so that they can go in to bat for their other halves?0
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Miriam Clegg is indeed highly
lickablelikeable.0 -
FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.0 -
I may not vote blue mainly because I think Lynton Crosby should have no place in British politics, but the tactics seem to be working on some level. I can't discount that as a punter.Alanbrooke said:
Which is part of the problem. Osborne has done nothing on smug bankers, it's one of the reasons I'm not voting blue this time round. As I've said before the Conservatives have "detoxed" on the wrong issues.DavidL said:
I find this a tricky one. On the one hand smug Banker types sitting there espousing corporate mea culpas for which no one should bear personal responsibility drives me a lot closer to violence than most things. If we can't lock them up for what they did to this country having someone shouting abuse at them is at least something.CarlottaVance said:Margaret Hodge may be wise to be careful castigating others for what they didn't know:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it
OTOH as even the Indy points out Margaret Hodge is perhaps not best placed to do the shouting.0 -
I have extended the benefit of the doubt more than once on the basis of someone's wife....DavidL said:
Sympathise or admire? Is it not more that, "well you might think X is a bit of a dork but look at this beautiful, clever and extremely successful woman who thought otherwise. Maybe you have misjudged him?"Alanbrooke said:
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.
Just look at Prince Philip......
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I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
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Especially if trying to scoff a bacon buttie at same timeFinancier said:
No, Putin is photographed bare (and barrel) chested whilst riding (and in control of ) a horse.TGOHF said:
Can you imagine Eck wheeling out his wife ?...TheWatcher said:
It shows weakness. Imagine Putin or any other leader wheeling out their wives or mummies to fight their corner for them. Or using their children as props in carefully staged trips to the park.Alanbrooke said:The Justine stunt was pure desperation
Somehow just can't imagine EdM doing that. trying not to visualise it as am enjoying breakfast.0 -
Then Clarkson will become ITV's problem. Clarkson punching a producer does brand Clarkson no damage. It does do the BBC damage though - it would also do ITV damage.Indigo said:FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Given the worldwide popularity of top gear, the trio could just start their own rip off show and sell it direct to the networks/amazon/sony/netflix.
The top gear "brand" is nothing without all three of them.0 -
Yes, they deserve forensic dissection, but parliament deserves better than pantomime barracking from a pound shop RobespiereDavidL said:
I find this a tricky one. On the one hand smug Banker types sitting there espousing corporate mea culpas for which no one should bear personal responsibility drives me a lot closer to violence than most things. If we can't lock them up for what they did to this country having someone shouting abuse at them is at least something.CarlottaVance said:Margaret Hodge may be wise to be careful castigating others for what they didn't know:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/with-a-past-like-hers-margaret-hodge-might-show-a-bit-more-humility-10098871.html
With a past like hers, Margaret Hodge might show a bit more humility
In the Eighties Hodge was aware of previous child sex abuse in the care homes for which she was responsible, and did nothing about it
OTOH as even the Indy points out Margaret Hodge is perhaps not best placed to do the shouting.0 -
Does it work in reverse too? If a leader's wife is more at the, ahem, 'pulchritudinously challenged' end of the spectrum is it human nature to think less of them a bit?CarlottaVance said:
I have extended the benefit of the doubt more than once on the basis of someone's wife....DavidL said:
Sympathise or admire? Is it not more that, "well you might think X is a bit of a dork but look at this beautiful, clever and extremely successful woman who thought otherwise. Maybe you have misjudged him?"Alanbrooke said:
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.
Just look at Prince Philip......0 -
Indigo,
"Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them."
BBC always seemed a bad fit for Top Gear. A laddish programme on the most politically correct channel ever. I'm surprised it lasted so long.0 -
The key for spotting potential Tory gains in Scotland (and we are of course talking about an extremely small pool here) is to try and identify the seats that can fall to them by standing still.Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
On that basis I said more than 6 months ago that D&G was a good bet. The Labour vote in Scotland is coming down big time from 2010. The Tories just need to stand still and pray that they don't get overtaken by the SNP in the fast lane (as is very likely to happen in Kincardine).0 -
David , I doubt it you either think she felt sorry for him or " she must have relied heavily on her looks as she cannot be very bright picking that loser"DavidL said:
Sympathise or admire? Is it not more that, "well you might think X is a bit of a dork but look at this beautiful, clever and extremely successful woman who thought otherwise. Maybe you have misjudged him?"Alanbrooke said:
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.0 -
Mr. Pong, until a few years ago it was, I think, made by a firm Clarkson and Wilman owned.
I agree, there's very little to stop Clarkson et al. simply making their millions elsewhere, losing the BBC a vast amount of revenue.0 -
Hard to see them getting the 3Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
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Sample size of just 400 for that poll, voting intention asked after view of Ms Featherstone etc etc.
Mr. Wells at Polling Report is none too impressed.
Neither should we.0 -
Am just amazed as to why the BeeB had to publicise it and make a fuss (unless the producer has been just waiting to get one over on Clarkson).Indigo said:FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
He is well liked by the global viewers because he is politically incorrect, says what he thinks and is quite unambiguous.
However the BeeB Guardianistas must be holding their noses every time the royalties roll in which pays for a lot of their very large salaries and pensions. Surely they are not that principled that they are prepared to risk all those personal financial benefits for the odd political incorrectness. Perhaps its is that Clarkson is right wing that really gets up their collective noses - tissues all-round when the P45s are issued then.0 -
Only by the foolish. Mrs Thatcher was the last person to underestimate Elspeth Howe.....Patrick said:
Does it work in reverse too? If a leader's wife is more at the, ahem, 'pulchritudinously challenged' end of the spectrum is it human nature to think less of them a bit?CarlottaVance said:
I have extended the benefit of the doubt more than once on the basis of someone's wife....DavidL said:
Sympathise or admire? Is it not more that, "well you might think X is a bit of a dork but look at this beautiful, clever and extremely successful woman who thought otherwise. Maybe you have misjudged him?"Alanbrooke said:
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.
Just look at Prince Philip......0 -
On this by proxy with the pandas, but I reckon the SNP may well steam through them all except DCT.Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
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Mr. G, how do you see the Conservatives performing in Scotland?
Edited extra bit: Clarkson-related topics dominate the top 10 on Twitter right now [about half of them are on the subject].0 -
But Malcolm these women are all manifestly bright. And they picked their husbands long before they became leader of anything. It does reflect well on them. Whether using their wives in this way does or not is of course a matter of taste. Personally, I am rather with Alan and, I think, yourself on that one.malcolmg said:
David , I doubt it you either think she felt sorry for him or " she must have relied heavily on her looks as she cannot be very bright picking that loser"DavidL said:
Sympathise or admire? Is it not more that, "well you might think X is a bit of a dork but look at this beautiful, clever and extremely successful woman who thought otherwise. Maybe you have misjudged him?"Alanbrooke said:
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.0 -
I know someone who is switching their vote from greens to SNP in dumfriesshire now that they know it is a contest. The idea of getting Mundell out pleases them.malcolmg said:
Hard to see them getting the 3Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
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As much damage as sacking/sidelining the BBC Saville journalists and promoting those who suppressed the story, even to the extent of running the disastrous Newsnight McAlpine story?Pong said:
Then Clarkson will become ITV's problem. Clarkson punching a producer does brand Clarkson no damage. It does do the BBC damage though - it would also do ITV damage.Indigo said:FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
.0 -
Agree but for the benefit of Sandy is 2 out of 3 not bad?malcolmg said:
Hard to see them getting the 3Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
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The BBC will showcase all the leaders and their families over the next few weeks, Sturgeon is next. Those who think it was a Labour stunt need to get their facts right. Sexist comments about physical appearance, positive or negative are childish. I feel sorry for the person making such comments, are they insecure in their own attributes?0
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Less than a quarter of Wales' 16 and 17-year-olds think politicians have a big impact on their lives, a poll says.
The Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods (WISERD) asked 500 secondary school pupils for their opinions on politics.
The survey also found nearly 90% said it mattered who ran the country after May's general election.
Of the teenagers polled:
23% said politics affected their life "a lot"
47% said "a bit"
30% said "not at all"
Half of those polled had one particular issue they cared passionately about, including school being too stressful, badger culling and dairy prices for farmers.....
Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, the SNP and the Green Party all support the idea of offering 16 and 17-year-olds a vote in general elections, but the Tories and UKIP favour the current threshold of 18.
42% thought the voting age should be lowered to 16
49% thought it should not
8% said they did not know
A third said they would not vote in the general election, even if they could.
Things like austerity, Europe and electoral reform didn't strike a chord with the vast majority of our respondents."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-318246930 -
I imagine the Cornish would feel the same way, as would most the other south under a Labour government... the idiotic attempts of some politicians to balkanize England would just exacerbate those feelings.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge. An affront to the very notion of democracy © The English Press
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Why are pretty girls who show quite a bit of skin used to sell cars?roserees64 said:The BBC will showcase all the leaders and their families over the next few weeks, Sturgeon is next. Those who think it was a Labour stunt need to get their facts right. Sexist comments about physical appearance, positive or negative are childish. I feel sorry for the person making such comments, are they insecure in their own attributes?
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Mr. L, I disagree. It's worth recalling many people, both men and women, have rubbish taste in men (or women).
Besides, even the most excellent chaps can be single.0 -
Disagree. Many (myself included) thought the same about Vicky Henderson and Tiff Needell. The success of Clarkson without them demonstrates that the others are more or less backing performers.Pong said:
Then Clarkson will become ITV's problem. Clarkson punching a producer does brand Clarkson no damage. It does do the BBC damage though - it would also do ITV damage.Indigo said:FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Given the worldwide popularity of top gear, the trio could just start their own rip off show and sell it direct to the networks/amazon/sony/netflix.
The top gear "brand" is nothing without all three of them.
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Its going up by about a thousand a minute and currently stands at 203,000Indigo said:FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.0 -
Mr. Indigo, I quite agree.0
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MD , I reckon they will be lucky to be in the 0-2 range and personally the lower. However there may be an odd chance where the votes split and they get a chance but not likely other than in borders area. They are not popular and seen as London sock puppets.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, how do you see the Conservatives performing in Scotland?
Edited extra bit: Clarkson-related topics dominate the top 10 on Twitter right now [about half of them are on the subject].0 -
David, 2 would be momentous for ToriesDavidL said:
Agree but for the benefit of Sandy is 2 out of 3 not bad?malcolmg said:
Hard to see them getting the 3Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
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"Sexist comments about physical appearance, positive or negative are childish."
Then there's no hope for me. I voted LD last time despite some reservations about Cleggy. But I decided I'd overlook his deficiencies because he had an attractive Catholic wife.
The pledge on tuition fees was silly but the fuss over it was sillier still. That's the trouble when you let children vote. Fortunately, most of them don't.0 -
We could talk all night about it.DavidL said:
Agree but for the benefit of Sandy is 2 out of 3 not bad?malcolmg said:
Hard to see them getting the 3Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
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Stupid men are easily taken in by it, lots of dumplings out there.Financier said:
Why are pretty girls who show quite a bit of skin used to sell cars?roserees64 said:The BBC will showcase all the leaders and their families over the next few weeks, Sturgeon is next. Those who think it was a Labour stunt need to get their facts right. Sexist comments about physical appearance, positive or negative are childish. I feel sorry for the person making such comments, are they insecure in their own attributes?
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But this ain't get us nowhere.weejonnie said:
We could talk all night about it.DavidL said:
Agree but for the benefit of Sandy is 2 out of 3 not bad?malcolmg said:
Hard to see them getting the 3Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
Back to work methinks.0 -
You can't damage the BBC in any meaningful sense of the word, it doesn't need our money. It has no shareholders, its basically accountable to no one except a bunch of retired politicians on the Trust that want to let sleeping dogs lie.CarlottaVance said:
As much damage as sacking/sidelining the BBC Saville journalists and promoting those who suppressed the story, even to the extent of running the disastrous Newsnight McAlpine story?Pong said:
Then Clarkson will become ITV's problem. Clarkson punching a producer does brand Clarkson no damage. It does do the BBC damage though - it would also do ITV damage.Indigo said:FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
.
Pretty full details of the Clarkson incident in the Rant.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2988412/Top-Gear-s-Jeremy-Clarkson-suspended-BBC-fracas-producer.html
In general the problem is the BBC hate cars because its against the pro-green pro-environment right on view. They hate people who are not politically correct. The would prefer it to be presented by three women, and be much more socially "relevant". In short there isn't much about TG that they like - except the money, and their hatred of all the rest seems to have overshadowed their common sense.
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Imagine the SNP are in government without a single English, Welsh or Irish MP. The democratic deficit of 92% of the people of the UK being ruled by a regional (8% UK) party would be huge.......Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge. An affront to the very notion of democracy © The English Press
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Hey I think Nicola's a sock puppet of Fatboy Slim and she's hugely unpopular in rural Warwickshire, but that's democracy innit ?malcolmg said:
MD , I reckon they will be lucky to be in the 0-2 range and personally the lower. However there may be an odd chance where the votes split and they get a chance but not likely other than in borders area. They are not popular and seen as London sock puppets.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, how do you see the Conservatives performing in Scotland?
Edited extra bit: Clarkson-related topics dominate the top 10 on Twitter right now [about half of them are on the subject].0 -
It looks to me as if Clarkson vs Auntie has become a proxy war for the whole normal people vs PC leftyism debate. (of which Frage vs political elite is just another theatre of war). FWIW I think the developed world is well past 'peak lefty' now and seriously PC attiutudes are no longer cool at all - especially among the young. I signed the 'Je suis Jezza' petititon because I too find the BBC to be a swamp of anti-market, anti-freedom, anti-anything that Russell Brand doesn't masturbate to awfulness. I really hope Clarkson gets a huge public bandwagon behind him, leaves the Beeb behind and takes ITV or Sky's shilling as a big FU2 to his droning right-on masters. In the end I think Clarkson represents freedom of thought and expression, however disasteful his free thoughts and expressions may be to some, and that is worth fighting for.0
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Pulchritude is such a marvellously ugly sounding word to describe great beauty!Patrick said:
Does it work in reverse too? If a leader's wife is more at the, ahem, 'pulchritudinously challenged' end of the spectrum is it human nature to think less of them a bit?CarlottaVance said:
I have extended the benefit of the doubt more than once on the basis of someone's wife....DavidL said:
Sympathise or admire? Is it not more that, "well you might think X is a bit of a dork but look at this beautiful, clever and extremely successful woman who thought otherwise. Maybe you have misjudged him?"Alanbrooke said:
Indeed I never quite get the wife bit, why are we meant to sympathise with a woman ( all 3 leaders ) who earns a 6 figure sum, is an alpha female and doesn't "work" in the conventional sense.DavidL said:
It's another piece of Americanisation. Like those dreadful debates. Thank goodness that is over.Alanbrooke said:@ Mike Smithson
just coming back to the stunt, it does strike me as notable that this is the second GE in a row where Labour have had to wheel out the candidate's wife to vouch for his human qualities. Is this because their chosing the wrong candidates or is it simply now becoming part of the electoral furniture like " dirtiest election ever" ?
Although it has to be said that all 3 of our main party leaders did very well in the marriage stakes.
It's all a bit Eva Peron to me.
Just look at Prince Philip......0 -
Will the Guardian? And when they do Samantha Cameron will they run a story about Justine's earnings?roserees64 said:The BBC will showcase all the leaders and their families over the next few weeks
Or will they be too busy covering News International Mirror Group phone hacking?
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One of the reasons Thatcher got her marmite status was as much because of the right wing clique of people who surrounded her as anything she herself did. Through left wing liberal eyes this amorphous crowd all became Thatcher and it's the reason that after all this time the name is still loathed. There were the right wing republicans propping up every fascist regime in Central America and of course the ultras in this country which stretched as far as Paisley in Northern Ireland.
Cameron at first showed a different face. These right wing hangers on didn't much like him. But yesterday that started to shift. Murdoch and Brooks and then Clarkson and now a petition by Guido Fawkes which tick all the boxes of an attack on the BBC. Next we get a Republican President and suddenly all the ducks are in a row. It's the time for the left to be very afraid. Birds of a feather just can't help sticking together0 -
The great thing about the internet is it tends to bring out an emotional honesty in people that would be completely inappropriate in any other context.CD13 said:"Sexist comments about physical appearance, positive or negative are childish."
Then there's no hope for me. I voted LD last time despite some reservations about Cleggy. But I decided I'd overlook his deficiencies because he had an attractive Catholic wife.
The pledge on tuition fees was silly but the fuss over it was sillier still. That's the trouble when you let children vote. Fortunately, most of them don't.
You voted for your local LD candidate because you fancied the leaders wife? And why does her being catholic matter? Does that make her *more* attractive to you?
Fascinating.0 -
Hold on a sec. Clarkson was suspended for thumping an assistant producer whom he blamed for there being no dinner for him. Now he his being portrayed as some kind of champion for the ordinary bloke. Oh what the heck, let's go and beat the missus.Patrick said:It looks to me as if Clarkson vs Auntie has become a proxy war for the whole normal people vs PC leftyism debate. (of which Frage vs political elite is just another theatre of war). FWIW I think the developed world is well past 'peak lefty' now and seriously PC attiutudes are no longer cool at all - especially among the young. I signed the 'Je suis Jezza' petititon because I too find the BBC to be a swamp of anti-market, anti-freedom, anti-anything that Russell Brand doesn't masturbate to awfulness. I really hope Clarkson gets a huge public bandwagon behind him, leaves the Beeb behind and takes ITV or Sky's shilling as a big FU2 to his droning right-on masters. In the end I think Clarkson represents freedom of thought and expression, however disasteful his free thoughts and expressions may be to some, and that is worth fighting for.
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The idea of an opinion poll is to find out how people will vote in the polling booth , They will not go into the polling booth , vote , come out and then discuss their favourability for the named candidates and/or parties . That is what they will do before they go and vote so the Lib Dem approach in this poll seems to be correct .antifrank said:The Lib Dems need to know who has the local reputation such that makes saving them feasible. This polling may assist them with that. But I struggle to accept that asking about respondents' favourability towards named candidates then asking about polling intentions is a neutral way of presenting matters.
Incidentally the field work for this poll seems to be March 3rd so it is very recent .0 -
Top Ghia?Pong said:
Given the worldwide popularity of top gear, the trio could just start their own rip off show and sell it direct to the networks/amazon/sony/netflix.Indigo said:FPT:
https://www.change.org/p/bbc-reinstate-jeremy-clarkson
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
0 -
Yeah this was clear from the Ashcroft poll. As soon as it became clear the SNP could actually boot the Tories out despite all speculation before the poll was published there was going to be a huge tactical vote for the SNP.Alistair said:
I know someone who is switching their vote from greens to SNP in dumfriesshire now that they know it is a contest. The idea of getting Mundell out pleases them.malcolmg said:
Hard to see them getting the 3Alistair said:
I have a tenner on them taking The Borders and wouldn't be that surprised if they took all 3. Actually D&G might be a bit surprising I suppose.DavidL said:
ElectionForecast now has them up to 3, all in the borders.Alistair said:Imagine if the Tories win the election without a single Scottish MP. The democratic deficit of the people of Scotland being ruled by a regional party would be huge.
Not just Greens but the remaining Labour voters will be flocking to the SNP banner.
The same could happen to Murphy, although there will be tactical voting in all directions there.0 -
It's the most commented story in The Times, their readers are definitely using it as such.Patrick said:
It looks to me as if Clarkson vs Auntie has become a proxy war for the whole normal people vs PC leftyism debate. (of which Frage vs political elite is just another theatre of war). FWIW I think the developed world is well past 'peak lefty' now and seriously PC attiutudes are no longer cool at all - especially among the young. I signed the 'Je suis Jezza' petititon because I too find the BBC to be a swamp of anti-market, anti-freedom, anti-anything that Russell Brand doesn't masturbate to awfulness. I really hope Clarkson gets a huge public bandwagon behind him, leaves the Beeb behind and takes ITV or Sky's shilling as a big FU2 to his droning right-on masters. In the end I think Clarkson represents freedom of thought and expression, however disasteful his free thoughts and expressions may be to some, and that is worth fighting for.
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Who knew he was such a diva? Wouldn't a proper bloke just order a takeaway, instead of putting on the full Naomi?JohnO said:
Hold on a sec. Clarkson was suspended for thumping an assistant producer whom he blamed for there being no dinner for him. Now he his being portrayed as some kind of champion for the ordinary bloke. Oh what the heck, let's go and beat the missus.Patrick said:It looks to me as if Clarkson vs Auntie has become a proxy war for the whole normal people vs PC leftyism debate. (of which Frage vs political elite is just another theatre of war). FWIW I think the developed world is well past 'peak lefty' now and seriously PC attiutudes are no longer cool at all - especially among the young. I signed the 'Je suis Jezza' petititon because I too find the BBC to be a swamp of anti-market, anti-freedom, anti-anything that Russell Brand doesn't masturbate to awfulness. I really hope Clarkson gets a huge public bandwagon behind him, leaves the Beeb behind and takes ITV or Sky's shilling as a big FU2 to his droning right-on masters. In the end I think Clarkson represents freedom of thought and expression, however disasteful his free thoughts and expressions may be to some, and that is worth fighting for.
0
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