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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank guest slot: How the monarchy might suffer in the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Antifrank guest slot: How the monarchy might suffer in the post-election scramble
It is fast becoming received wisdom that the general election in May will produce an inconclusive result, and all the parties are setting out their stalls in advance, marking their red lines.
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I think that would be the constitutionally correct thing to do.
JEZKI.
"STJOHN"s Cheltenham daily special.
Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/574994996128014336
Ultimately since its the voters that would have got us there then I fail to see why its so difficult to put the blame if any where it belongs.
Until a new PM is appointed the existing PM stays on.
Lab 260
LD 30
SNP 50
Appeals to my anarchist tendencies
Of course it may still be an unholy mess, but I don't see the monarchy getting the blame for that.
I think the SNP least likely of the lot to abstein of the leftish parties personally. Though I wouldn't 100% rule it out.
Then we'll have the much-vaunted referendum, the result of which is likely to please one side much more than the other and we'll either have a lame-duck PM with his credibility and reputation in tatters or a PM having to govern a fractious Party.
Great prospect, eh ? Makes the idea of Ed M and Balls look passably attractive.
Any party which isn't yet ready to pull the plug can always dress it up with some cant about stability.
More to the point the Kippers probably will have just for 100 or so second places in northern Labour seats, the sitting MPs there are not going to be in a hurry to call a new election and risk losing the seat they just won.
In the meantime, David Cameron remains Prime Minister.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11461163/Britain-may-broadcast-Putins-financial-secrets-to-Russian-people.html
Labour is completely screwed no matter how you view the post parliament arithmetic in many many scenarios and many, many ways.
"But what happens if the politicians simply cannot decide who has the strongest claim to become prime minister?"
The BBC article nonchalantly states:
"The fervent wish within Buckingham Palace will be that the political leaders can determine amongst themselves who is in the best position to command the support of the House of Commons.
It may take some days, and the Palace will not seek unduly to hasten the process.
There are other, to some extent intangible, factors which should help the party leaders to come to an agreement amongst themselves.
They are all familiar with the principles upon which the British constitution rests. They are aware of the high importance of having a House of Commons which is independent from the Crown.
Equally, they will be aware of the high public regard for the way in which this particular monarch has carried out her public responsibilities from a time before virtually all of them were born. None of them, I suspect, would wish to place such a widely respected constitutional monarch in a difficult position. "
Except this time round, at least one of them will be quite keen to put the widely respected constitutional monarch in a difficult position. Indeed, that might be the SNP's main objective of this particular hung Parliament.
Con 33.6
Lab 31.7
UKIP 14.3
LD 7.9
Green 6.2
LabCon lead 1.9%!We've been here before sort of, but this is by far the biggest "early in the week" Tory lead in ELBOW!
"Although I serve the interests of all citizens of the United Kingdom, I cannot forget that I was crowned under a Conservative government."
What do you think about my proposition though.
Of course, the IndyRef showed the degree to which one side will create a sense of irrational fear and panic to make people vote their way. I'm sure the anti-EU side will make all sorts of wild threats about the future of the country if we stay within the EU.
The pro-EU side will of course do exactly the same claiming the world will end if we leave.
That's not to deride democracy or the referendum process - just we all know what's going to happen so how do we conduct a free and fair process without both sides resorting to threat, innuendo and intimidation to make their point ?
Lib Dems coalition agreement
Labour "Better Together"
All have a toxifying theme of (effectively) working with a certain party...
This is why I think the SNP least likely to abstain from a Conservative confidence motion. Labour will probably vote against, and pray the Lib Dems abstain
He will walk and advise the Queen to ask the leader of the second largest Party to form an administration.
Brown waited in 2010 because there was a chance that IF negotiations between the Conservatives and the LDs failed, a Labour-LD minority Government (which had more votes in the Commons than the Conservatives) could be formed and he perhaps thought he could continue as Prime Minister.
It was only when it became apparent that negotiations were proceeding and an agreement was going to be reached that he resigned.
Unless Cameron is able to reach out to the SNP, DUP or whoever and tries to form a Government on that basis, he won't prolong the uncertainty but give Ed M a chance to form his own Government.
The problem is without at least some semblance of a renegotiation we will never be able to demonstrate how un-reformable the EU is in practise. If Dave goes to Brussels and is basically told to piss off, or given some obvious bit of flim-flam which is called out by the sceptics for being such, its obvious that the EU is what it is and we have to decide it we want to be part of it.
If we don't ask the question the europhiles will whine for ever more that we could have stayed in because we would have got concessions if we had asked for them (in the face of all experience and evidence!).
He might actually want to get involved in the coalition negotiations Himself.
It really is sad to see a bunch of people so insecure that they believe the only way the country can thrive is to be subjugated to a bloated power bloc rather than standing on our own two feet.
I can't remember if it's a cast iron or a copper bottomed or a "No ifs, no buts" one though.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3539/A-third-of-young-people-think-social-media-will-influence-their-vote.aspx
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/kings-social-media-2015-charts.pdf
*(apart from the guest thread contributor that is)
It is interesting how his firmest commitments have been on europe and immigration. Never in the field of UK politics have so many promises been made to so many by a Prime Minister who's delivered so few.
Of the 7 YG polls published this month, the LD2010 VI show that the LD retention on 4 of those polls is greater than their loss to Labour.
Heath did not resign immediately as Prime Minister. Assuming that Northern Ireland's Unionist MPs could be persuaded to support a Conservative government on confidence matters over one led by Wilson, he entered into negotiations with Thorpe to form a coalition government. Thorpe, never enthusiastic about supporting the Conservatives, demanded major electoral reforms in exchange for such an agreement. Unwilling to accept such terms, Heath resigned and Wilson returned for his second spell as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.
The Liberals did not have enough seats to combine with another party to achieve an overall majority. This made the formation of a stable government in this parliament a practical impossibility. Wilson called another election in October of the same year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974
In any case a minority government would only continue if it maintained the confidence of the House. Once that is gone then the Queen with the guidance Prime Minister would name the date of the next election. The big difference thanks to the Fixed Term Parliament Act is that the Government could no longer do what Wilson did in 1974 and call a second election. It would be solely up to opposition parties as to when an election would take place by passing a motion of no confidence and therefore likely to be when the Government least wants it.
Of course the government theoretically might be able to do a deal at some point with opposition parties for a vote of no confidence if it proved advantageous for all of them to stitch up the main opposition party. Perhaps the one thing that might unite the Tories and SNP is a vote of no confidence against a Tory Government that harms the Labour Party?
This is likely to be a good election to lose and definitely 'interesting times'.......
FPTA
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/14/section/2/enacted
Interestingly, Parliament will not meet for 12 days after the GE polling date, if the manual is to be believed.
The PM stays in office until they resign, even if a hung parliament and they are entitled to wait until the new parliament first meets to be sure whether they can command the confidence.
Also, the convention is that a PM should not resign until they are in a position where there is "a situation in which clear advice could be given to the Sovereign on who should be asked
to form a government."
So, to my reading, if it is hung, then Cameron could remain PM for at least 12 days while negotiations are undertaken.
A big week coming up!
Matthew D'Ancona says as much in his book.
If Cameron's PM now [which he is] and his party has most seats (and likely most votes by a margin too) and no other coalition is cobbled together, it's common sense for him to be PM.
As for Eurosceptics the desire for freedom from something once entrenched rarely goes away and given the circumstances it will likely just grow (in terms of numbers) and get louder the more we are suffocated by the despotism of Brussels (and its abusive supporters).
For the Conservatives they can continue to look and act as the ruling party, Cameron would further enhance his status as PM and they can try and convince voters to give them the full reigns next time.
For Labour, they would need time to rebuild under a new leader, as well as getting the funds together for a second election. It'd be easier to do this in opposition and they could engineer the timing of the second election when it best suited them.
Casino - your reply to John O on the previous thread is the best news I've heard all day!
Its a Victory for Eck Nicola!
http://ericjoyce.co.uk/2015/03/a-real-scottish-labour-party/