Mr. Eagles, you expect Miliband to launch the most successful ambush in political history on the Conservatives? To win a stunning victory when all the odds are against him? To defeat several Conservative leaders?
On the debates: that's possible, but the reverse could happen. Sniping, squabbling leaders bickering away *could* make Cameron look good simply for not having bothered with it.
Mr. Putney, those spreads are pretty near my predictions in the guessing game.
Mr. Jessop, not sure of the precise Sauber situation (I had heard their line of argument). Van Der Garde waiting until after testing before complaining is a bit peculiar.
Indeed. However as per the Daily Record item linked earlier, the SNP want a weak Tory government, so they are probably not remotely fussed about the poster.
I'm not 100% sure what the SNP want but that line in the Daily Record is being pushed so that the Scots "come home" to Labour.
Mr. Eagles, you expect Miliband to launch the most successful ambush in political history on the Conservatives? To win a stunning victory when all the odds are against him? To defeat several Conservative leaders?
On the debates: that's possible, but the reverse could happen. Sniping, squabbling leaders bickering away *could* make Cameron look good simply for not having bothered with it.
Mr. Putney, those spreads are pretty near my predictions in the guessing game.
Mr. Jessop, not sure of the precise Sauber situation (I had heard their line of argument). Van Der Garde waiting until after testing before complaining is a bit peculiar.
I've said phone hacking was Ed Miliband's Cannae and that 2015 would be his Zama.
Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!
I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.
Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.
I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
I think Nick's currently en route to South Korea, so we shouldn't read too much into his silence.
Fair enough - Nick's usually very prepared to face up to any disappointing news for the Red Team - odd though that he should choose to visit S Korea less than two months before a GE in which he is a candidate. Presumably he's overwhelmingly confident of winning back Broxtowe.
Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!
I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.
A dreadful woman. When does she next make some bitchy sexualised remark? One loss I am looking forward to.
Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .
Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.
Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.
The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
Looks like the only issue is whether the Tories get an overall majority or not. I reckon the odds are against, but Ed's total uselessness may deliver one. At least he will be gone in just a few weeks now.
For Ed, the question is, will he win more seats than Kinnock did in 1987?
Or a vote share better than Michael Foot?
Foot is several time the politician Miliband is as well, he might have what we could charitably call presentation issues, and he might have been rather to the left of this country at the time he was in with a chance, and he was facing Thatcher, not Cameron, but he had a towering intellect and a powerful oratory.... EdM has neither.
It is probably too late for it now (as it would require ditching Balls) but one option for a fightback would be a manifesto red in tooth and claw. Full Syrizia style loss of grip on reality could really fire up the troops.
But Scotland would still be the Achilles heel. English people do not want to be ruled by Scots any more than Scots want to be ruled by England.
If the SNP kept to a policy of only voting on truly national matters such as Defence and promised SF like abstaining on other issues, and did it plausibly, then the Tory poster of Ed in Alex's pocket would be disarmed.
Time the English ( ie Westminster ) stopped doing it then
The route to devomax could be via SNP belligerence at Westminster, wrecking everything possible. Alternatively it could be by unilateralism.
I suspect that the former would strengthen the Tories and would also poison relationships to the point that either devomax or independence would be needlesly acrimonious. We are always going to be neighbours on this island!
I would suggest that SNP unilateralism would lead pretty quickly to an amicable devomax settlement that would be on much stronger foundations.
Labour will surely choose a better leader in the next Parliament
That depends if they have changed the rules sufficiently to prevent Len doing it again.
There is also the chance they swing violently left in a wild (and doomed) attempt to take on the SNP
We talked about Cameron's replacement. If we assume a CON minority or if they are lucky small majority government, who replaces Ed ?
Do they move to the centre and pick Chuka Umunna, cant see UNITE going for that, and the voters would hate him anyway even if the blairite end of the activists might approve.
Or do they do for the full SYRIZA nutjob approach, keep the paymaster's happy, put the Member for Hornchurch in the driving seat maybe.
If they want to return to proper electability pick a moderate with some life experience. Dan Jarvis ?
Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.
I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
I think Nick's currently en route to South Korea, so we shouldn't read too much into his silence.
Fair enough - Nick's usually very prepared to face up to any disappointing news for the Red Team - odd though that he should choose to visit S Korea less than two months before a GE in which he is a candidate. Presumably he's overwhelmingly confident of winning back Broxtowe.
Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!
I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.
I wouldn't be too confident as yet of Anna Soubry holding onto Broxtowe for the Blues. Quite apart from her little local difficulty in the HoC last week, the best bookies' odds show Nick Palmer as the hot 2/5 favourite to regain this seat, with La Soubry out at 9/4. By any normal standards these odds suggest she's pretty much a no-hoper.
For those with European holidays on the near horizon, the GBP is just under Euro 1.40 this morning. With all the Greek problems, where it will go next is anyone's guess.
Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.
I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
I think Nick's currently en route to South Korea, so we shouldn't read too much into his silence.
Fair enough - Nick's usually very prepared to face up to any disappointing news for the Red Team - odd though that he should choose to visit S Korea less than two months before a GE in which he is a candidate. Presumably he's overwhelmingly confident of winning back Broxtowe.
Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!
I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.
A dreadful woman. When does she next make some bitchy sexualised remark? One loss I am looking forward to.
Not as dreadful as Nick Palmer, though. I don't think he'll lose, but I certainly will not celebrate his win. Broxtowe and parliament deserves better.
Great post. I'm surprised too at the Tory leads. At the beginning of parliament I thought this would be a one-term govt only. Times were very tough, I thought they'd become unpopular very quickly and the coalition with the Lib Dems would give all the protest voters back to Labour. Then Labour picked Ed Miliband as leader, and that gave the Tories hope. Ed has singularly failed to create any enthusiasm for his party.
Miliband's big fear now must be the GE approaching with Labour having no chance of governing alone. If that scenario looks nailed-on then voters in Scotland will almost certainly be drawn to the SNP. One, as a F.U. to the Tories and two, because the SNP will be telling their supporters they have a great chance of holding the balance of power.
I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.
All eyes now on the Budget I suppose. George Osborne has proved he can win and fail at these big set-pieces.
Looks like the only issue is whether the Tories get an overall majority or not. I reckon the odds are against, but Ed's total uselessness may deliver one. At least he will be gone in just a few weeks now.
For Ed, the question is, will he win more seats than Kinnock did in 1987?
Or a vote share better than Michael Foot?
Foot is several time the politician Miliband is as well, he might have what we could charitably call presentation issues, and he might have been rather to the left of this country at the time he was in with a chance, and he was facing Thatcher, not Cameron, but he had a towering intellect and a powerful oratory.... EdM has neither.
It is probably too late for it now (as it would require ditching Balls) but one option for a fightback would be a manifesto red in tooth and claw. Full Syrizia style loss of grip on reality could really fire up the troops.
But Scotland would still be the Achilles heel. English people do not want to be ruled by Scots any more than Scots want to be ruled by England.
If the SNP kept to a policy of only voting on truly national matters such as Defence and promised SF like abstaining on other issues, and did it plausibly, then the Tory poster of Ed in Alex's pocket would be disarmed.
Time the English ( ie Westminster ) stopped doing it then
The route to devomax could be via SNP belligerence at Westminster, wrecking everything possible. Alternatively it could be by unilateralism.
I suspect that the former would strengthen the Tories and would also poison relationships to the point that either devomax or independence would be needlesly acrimonious. We are always going to be neighbours on this island!
I would suggest that SNP unilateralism would lead pretty quickly to an amicable devomax settlement that would be on much stronger foundations.
I doubt Westminster will give up powers willingly , it will only be for personal interest and kicking and screaming at that.
Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .
Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.
Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.
The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
I am not sure Farage will regret it, a bunch of lefties yapping around his heels accusing him of things that will actually appeal to a lot of his base while he blithely continues to trot out sound bites about Cameron's failures on immigration and Ed's open door immigration policy for the camera.
Ed cant back out given all the fuss he has made about "any time, any place, any where", and all the minor parties are gagging for the free publicity regardless of who turns up.
Mr. G, to a large extent, I agree. The desire for Westminster to remain as is would explain why so many political clowns there are reluctant to contemplate the essential creation of an English Parliament.
However, if they refuse outright to devolve more powers to Scotland, that would provoke a second vote, sooner or later.
What I continue to find astonishing is that the Tories have such a lead and are within a couple of percent of their 2010 support with UKIP still on 15%. To me this demonstrates at least 3 things.
Firstly, those who consistently claim that Cameron is "not very good" at politics are wrong. The critique was that he would not be able to reposition the Tories and pick up as many votes I the centre as he was losing to his right. He has and he is.
Secondly, Ed has almost completely failed to marshal the anti-government vote. After nearly ........
Thirdly, the potential upside for the Tories is greater than it is for Labour. If Labour were not ................
Labour still has significant advantages. They have the boundary advantage. They have a significant wedge of safe seats (although thanks to Scotland about 45 fewer than they had in 2010). They have the opportunity of the red Liberals in seats where the collapse in Lib Dem support should swing things their way. The distribution
The combined vote share for the Conservatives and UKIP is running at c. 49% now, well above where I expected it to be.
I think that Labour's election of Ed Milliband as leader is really hitting home now, very late in the day. If Labour were actually to suffer a net loss of seats, (which can't be ruled out, now), it would be their worst result since 1987.
Still, we need more polls. It's too early to say that the Conservatives are in the lead, but we can say for certain that Labour have lost theirs.
I had a nightmare last night that Ed Miliband handed back the Falklands to Argentina, divested the UK of all its overseas territories, cashiered the Royal Navy, signed us up to an EU army, increased immigration drastically to the point where there was "camping out" of migrants on my village green, and bankrupted the country. I had to sell my house, and I was in the process of emigrating to Canada when I woke up.
MD ..It was her passionate defence of it that shows she would pursue a bad idea forever..even tho most of her party thought she was bonkers. What happened to all those suckers who paid to become examiners..
Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!
I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.
I wouldn't be too confident as yet of Anna Soubry holding onto Broxtowe for the Blues. Quite apart from her little local difficulty in the HoC last week, the best bookies' odds show Nick Palmer as the hot 2/5 favourite to regain this seat, with La Soubry out at 9/4. By any normal standards these odds suggest she's pretty much a no-hoper.
Yeah those 30% chances never come in do they? A real outsider
She's about the same price to win Broxtowe as Ronaldo is to score first in the Real Madrid match tonight...
Mr. Indigo, Umunna's worse than Miliband. Just as wonkish, but with the greasy slime of Blair.
Yvette Cooper or Jarvis would probably be who I'd vote for, if I had a vote. Cooper's voice must be an octave or two lower than it was in 2010.
Jarvis at least has experience outside parliament, command experience, proven courage and and academic background in international affairs, security and conflict resolution. Be nice to see someone non-wonkish and experienced in life at the top of politics.
Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.
I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
I think Nicky's confidence was a bit of an act, Anna is up for this no doubt and get your money on Nicky suffering the embarrassment of a second defeat. If this election goes the way I expect Labour can't afford a third dud in a row as leader, they need to get the next one right.
Somebody wrote earlier they can't choose a leader as bad as Ed again, Burnham would be worse, for the good of UK Politics Labour need to avoid that trap.
Personally I think Cooper or Umunna would do good jobs as Labour leader, both come over well and have enough about them to put together a stronger front line team and put proper distance between leadership and the big unions.
That is really my first point. Cameron has widened the Tory tent so that it once again gets its fair share of the middle ground. No tory has managed that since Major in 1992.
Well Clegg gets a lot of credit for that in two ways. Firstly he did a deal with Cameron, a deal that will look mostly reasonable for many people in the centre of British politics. Secondly, by destroying his own electoral coalition, he has encouraged centrist voters to look elsewhere.
In the Ashcroft Polls about 5% of the entire electorate who voted Lib Dem in 2010 now say they will vote Conservative in 2015. If he hadn't lost about the same number of voters to UKIP then he would be looking at a vote share close to John Major's 42% in 1992.
They prompt for perceptions of the LD/Labour candidates before the VI question. (Or they only included the LD/Labour candidate details.)
"I want to put a series of names to you. In each instance can you tell me whether you think favourably or unfavourably of them, or if you have never heard of them?"
"If the general election was tomorrow, how would you vote in the Hornsey and Wood Green constituency knowing who is standing?"
The US has just suffered its third serious passenger rail accident in the last few weeks, along with several freight train crashes. A fair few people have been injured in the latest incident, but thankfully there have been no fatalities.
Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .
Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.
Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.
The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
If farage could write the script it would have them all ganging up to vilify him
The media talking about itself is about as interesting as Israel vs Palestine in my book - lots of pointless shouting at each other as no side is giving an inch and isn't interested in finding an answer yet as the fuss is more fun.
It's like the *proximity talks* of Northern Ireland. And Dr No.
Interesting thought: I'm just wondering if people's perception of Cameron has already been factored in his Flashman attitude as the cowardly cad and his behaviour in the TV debate argument as expected of him?
More than that, the polling swing to the Tories may not just be in spite of Camerons debate veto but because of it.
A bit of tough negotiation and willingness to walk away from a deal that is not wanted. It leaves the rest looking a bit spineless.
Is this really big news in the UK? I'm not there so I don't know. But it seems surprising to me that many people would give two hoots about whether a tv debate went on or not?
Media loves talking about itself, so the debates has dominated the news over the last week. If it has had any effect at all on the polling it seems to be in favour of the Tories. In the real world there still seems to be a massive lack of interest in the election.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 7th March Projection) :
Con 314 (+4) .. Lab 248 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 7 Mar - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold. Warwickshire North moves from Likely Lab Gain to TCTC. Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.
Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human
At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
Personally I think Cooper or Umunna would do good jobs as Labour leader, both come over well and have enough about them to put together a stronger front line team and put proper distance between leadership and the big unions.
Cooper's father was General Secretary of Prospect Union seems unlikely she is going to be tough on unions and tough on the causes of unions, she also a Scot
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 7th March Projection) :
Con 314 (+4) .. Lab 248 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 7 Mar - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold. Warwickshire North moves from Likely Lab Gain to TCTC. Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
By my reckoning, on those figures, you're assuming hardly any Labour pickups from Conservative at all. What? 4-5 Labour gains from Con max?
I rarely agree with Scott P on anything but he is quite correct that Cheltenham is here and far more important than politics. Though I'm a Flat fan and Ascot is my meeting, I can appreciate the joy with which jumps fans approach this week.
My Day One thoughts as follows:
1.30: L'AMI SERGE - DOUVAN is no price and good though he is, like so many this week, he will have to prove he can cope with quicker ground and a faster run race which will put pressure on his jumping. He may win but he's no value and I'll go with the Henderson horse.
2.05: VIBRATO VALTAT - there are fools, damn fools and people who bet odds-on in novice chases. UN DE SCEAUX fell on his chase outing and his jumping will be put to the test here. He's absolutely no value and the more experienced Nicholls runner will do for me.
2.40: THE DRUID'S NEPHEW - potentially well handicapped and worth an e/w bet if you can get 10s or bigger.
3.20: THE NEW ONE - was he unlucky last year when hampered early on ? He didn't impress everyone at Haydock but the ground and track will suit. FAUGHEEN could win this easily but 6/4 is very short and I can't have either JEZKI or HURRICANE FLY.
4.00: ANNIE POWER - she's miles ahead of these on the numbers and while I just question if 2 and a half is really her trip these days, she should have too much for these but she won't carry my money.
4.40 & 5.15: No idea - the 5.15 looks a tough a race as you'll find.
Enjoy the day and hope somebody (other than the bookies) makes some money.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 7th March Projection) :
Con 314 (+4) .. Lab 248 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority ......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - TCTC Warwickshire North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold Watford - Likely LibDem Gain Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - TCTC Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 7 Mar - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold. Warwickshire North moves from Likely Lab Gain to TCTC. Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
By my reckoning, on those figures, you're assuming hardly any Labour pickups from Conservative at all. What? 4-5 Labour gains from Con max?
Mr. Indigo, Umunna's worse than Miliband. Just as wonkish, but with the greasy slime of Blair.
Yvette Cooper or Jarvis would probably be who I'd vote for, if I had a vote. Cooper's voice must be an octave or two lower than it was in 2010.
Jarvis at least has experience outside parliament, command experience, proven courage and and academic background in international affairs, security and conflict resolution. Be nice to see someone non-wonkish and experienced in life at the top of politics.
Jarvis is the only MP I follow on Twitter. It's interesting to see the work he is doing in various constituencies. It's almost as if he is looking to build up base of support. He has looked a likely prospect since he entered Parliament and would be a very difficult politician to build a negative picture of. Even the Tory papers would struggle. He has two big problems: he has not been an MP for too long; and, more importantly, he does not seem to have strong union connections.
Not sure about Tory leads with Ashcroft and You Gov maybe if other pollsters reflected this trend we could believe in it.Budget week advanced boost was called for by LC, well done boys.
Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.
Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human
At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
Well said. The issue though, in any form of trading, is ruthless objectivity. I do not bet on politics but I do trade FX. Never fall in love with your position is a cast iron rule. One can read OGH's politics like a book - but I expect his bottom line reflects realpolitik rather than mere politics.
Not sure about Tory leads with Ashcroft and You Gov maybe if other pollsters reflected this trend we could believe in it.Budget week advanced boost was called for by LC, well done boys.
I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.
Fenster, possibly the most intriguing outcome of the general election is a modest Tory lead in votes and seats, falling short of a credible minority government, followed by the SNP effectively daring Labour to stake a claim to form the government with SNP (and potentially other) support. In that scenario there would certainly be a lot of support on the intellectual left (ie Guardian) for an "anti-Tory" government. Depending on the size of the gap to be overcome, Labour could either be eased into No. 10 or left in an impossible position - having to choose between forming a government that would be perceived as undemocratic and instantly unpopular, particularly in England, or playing into an SNP narrative about Labour putting the Union ahead of the interests of Scots, even to the extent of tacitly supporting the Conservatives. The SNP have an incredibly strong hand.
The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
My bet of the week results from fishing around the smaller betting markets for some semblance of value which resulted in my landing on seat betting for Plaid Cymru. Here the fulcrum point for a number of bookies is +/-3.5 seats (i.e. 3 or fewer, or more than 4 seats in normal parlance), compared with the three seats they hold at present. The election models http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and http://electionsetc.com/ show them winning one seat and three seats respectively, whilst Sporting Index have them at 3.0 - 3.6 (with some defence as ever protecting the upside). So far as I can see therefore, the consensus view is that Plaid will win three or fewer seats, with only a slimish, say 30% chance of them winning four seats or more ..... at least that's my gut feeling. I was pleasantly surprised therefore to discover that those nice folk at Ladbrokes are currently offering even money odds on the party winning fewer than 3.5 seats and surprisingly skinnier odds of 8/11 on them winning more than 3.5 seats, thereby providing the Magic Sign with a very fair 7.9% margin on this market. Definitely NOT one to bet the house on, but possibly worth a couple of pints of Old Speckled Hen should you agree with me. As ever DYOR.
I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.
Fenster, possibly the most intriguing outcome of the general election is a modest Tory lead in votes and seats, falling short of a credible minority government, followed by the SNP effectively daring Labour to stake a claim to form the government with SNP (and potentially other) support. In that scenario there would certainly be a lot of support on the intellectual left (ie Guardian) for an "anti-Tory" government. Depending on the size of the gap to be overcome, Labour could either be eased into No. 10 or left in an impossible position - having to choose between forming a government that would be perceived as undemocratic and instantly unpopular, particularly in England, or playing into an SNP narrative about Labour putting the Union ahead of the interests of Scots, even to the extent of tacitly supporting the Conservatives. The SNP have an incredibly strong hand.
The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
Cameron would meet parliament regardless if he's ahead. We would then discover just how much substance there was behind the 'rainbow' coalition.
Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.
Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human
At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
To my knowledge, OGH has never discouraged anyone from putting up a pro-Conservative thread. David Herdson regularly contributes and he's a staunch Conservative.
If the two of you stopped whingeing and contributed some articles of your own you might see a different balance on here. OGH doesn't have to be balanced and you don;t have to come on here every day and post hundreds of contributions complaining about ow unbalanced this forum is.
My bet of the week results from fishing around the smaller betting markets for some semblance of value which resulted in my landing on seat betting for Plaid Cymru. Here the fulcrum point for a number of bookies is +/-3.5 seats (i.e. 3 or fewer, or more than 4 seats in normal parlance), compared with the three seats they hold at present. The election models http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and http://electionsetc.com/ show them winning one seat and three seats respectively, whilst Sporting Index have them at 3.0 - 3.6 (with some defence as ever protecting the upside). So far as I can see therefore, the consensus view is that Plaid will win three or fewer seats, with only a slimish, say 30% chance of them winning four seats or more ..... at least that's my gut feeling. I was pleasantly surprised therefore to discover that those nice folk at Ladbrokes are currently offering even money odds on the party winning fewer than 3.5 seats and surprisingly skinnier odds of 8/11 on them winning more than 3.5 seats, thereby providing the Magic Sign with a very fair 7.9% margin on this market. Definitely NOT one to bet the house on, but possibly worth a couple of pints of Old Speckled Hen should you agree with me. As ever DYOR.
I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.
Fenster, possibly the most intriguing outcome of the general election is a modest Tory lead in votes and seats, falling short of a credible minority government, followed by the SNP effectively daring Labour to stake a claim to form the government with SNP (and potentially other) support. In that scenario there would certainly be a lot of support on the intellectual left (ie Guardian) for an "anti-Tory" government. Depending on the size of the gap to be overcome, Labour could either be eased into No. 10 or left in an impossible position - having to choose between forming a government that would be perceived as undemocratic and instantly unpopular, particularly in England, or playing into an SNP narrative about Labour putting the Union ahead of the interests of Scots, even to the extent of tacitly supporting the Conservatives. The SNP have an incredibly strong hand.
The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
Cameron would meet parliament regardless if he's ahead. We would then discover just how much substance there was behind the 'rainbow' coalition.
Cameron remains PM until either he decides to quit or he loses the confidence of the house - and no number of Guardian editorials will change that. There is even talk of ministers who lose seats continuing to serve in the short term.....
Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.
Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human
At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
To my knowledge, OGH has never discouraged anyone from putting up a pro-Conservative thread. David Herdson regularly contributes and he's a staunch Conservative.
If the two of you stopped whingeing and contributed some articles of your own you might see a different balance on here. OGH doesn't have to be balanced and you don;t have to come on here every day and post hundreds of contributions complaining about ow unbalanced this forum is.
I'm defending him you idiot
I have offered several articles, they obviously didn't cut the mustard
The anti-Labour majority (in terms of posts if not posters) mob in full hue and cry this morning and getting the champagne ready for a Party on May 8th.
I don't buy a sudden 4% swing from Labour to Conservative over the weekend - I put it down to nothing more than people feeling positive with a nice sunny day on Saturday. We'll see how much of an outlier ICM was on the Tory number in due course and as OGH said ysterday it was turnout filtering which supported the Conservative lead on the Ashcroft numbers.
We know the Conservative vote is more likely to turn out (or be turned out) but that's not to say as we get nearer the battle, the Labour and other votes won't be motivated to come out as well.
The next big event is the Budget next week and I expect it to be as political as Osborne can get way with.
The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
Its going to get very messy if the nett effect is 35ish seats have moved from the LDs to the SNP with LAB and CON seats staying roughly as they are.
With 304 seats the CONs are going so struggle to form a credible government, if the got into coalition with the LDs (with 22 LDs led by Farron that seems unlikely) and with C&S from the DUP they will get a Majority of 8 and its going to be as unstable as hell.
258 LAB + 52 SNP plus greens/PC wont be quite enough to cross the line either.
My bet of the week results from fishing around the smaller betting markets for some semblance of value which resulted in my landing on seat betting for Plaid Cymru. Here the fulcrum point for a number of bookies is +/-3.5 seats (i.e. 3 or fewer, or more than 4 seats in normal parlance), compared with the three seats they hold at present. The election models http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and http://electionsetc.com/ show them winning one seat and three seats respectively, whilst Sporting Index have them at 3.0 - 3.6 (with some defence as ever protecting the upside). So far as I can see therefore, the consensus view is that Plaid will win three or fewer seats, with only a slimish, say 30% chance of them winning four seats or more ..... at least that's my gut feeling. I was pleasantly surprised therefore to discover that those nice folk at Ladbrokes are currently offering even money odds on the party winning fewer than 3.5 seats and surprisingly skinnier odds of 8/11 on them winning more than 3.5 seats, thereby providing the Magic Sign with a very fair 7.9% margin on this market. Definitely NOT one to bet the house on, but possibly worth a couple of pints of Old Speckled Hen should you agree with me. As ever DYOR.
It's 3 or fewer and 4 or more, not 'more than 4'
Yes, indeed - quite correct. Sorry for any confusion.
The Tory position relative to Labour has been improving steadily for months. Anyone who cares to look at the numbers can see this.
And just look at Lord Ashcroft's reports on his focus groups to see how badly Miliband comes across.
Poor Labour people should prepare themselves psychologically for another 5 years of powerlessness.
More than 5, I would think. In the next Parliament, we will get to hear all about Labour's institutional protection of paedophiles, for example; its broadcasting arm, the BBC, is likely to get its wings clipped; and we can count on them to continue to call the economy completely wrong.
Then there is the problem of Blair. Blair increasingly looks like not the net asset he was perceived as when in office, but as just another form of Labour debt with the repayments dumped on hapless future generations. The more we hear of and from him, the worse he looks. You hear Tories wishing they had Maggie back but when did you ever hear a Labouroid wishing they had Tony back?
The electoral benefit he provided has yet to be repaid. I had dinner with friends of my parents on Saturday, not political people at all. One commented that he would not be particularly surprised if Blair did time one day. Didn't think it was likely, but given all the lying, not in any way out of the question.
Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .
Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.
Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.
The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
If farage could write the script it would have them all ganging up to vilify him
Personally I think that the odds against Mr Farage (5 vs 1 ) are unfair.
The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
Its going to get very messy if the nett effect is 35ish seats have moved from the LDs to the SNP with LAB and CON seats staying roughly as they are.
With 304 seats the CONs are going so struggle to form a credible government, if the got into coalition with the LDs (with 22 LDs led by Farron that seems unlikely) and with C&S from the DUP they will get a Majority of 8 and its going to be as unstable as hell.
258 LAB + 52 SNP plus greens/PC wont be quite enough to cross the line either.
A new LIBDEM leader is not going to emerge on 8th May. Clegg will probably hold his seat IMO; even if he didn't there would be the matter of a party election. The formation of a governement would however be of the essence. I expect Cameron would just say to the Libs "It makes sense to continue the coalition. Take it or leave it". A bit like the debates really!
Almost two-thirds of Scots think immigration should be reduced, a poll commissioned by the BBC has suggested.
It suggests that Scots are almost as negative about immigration as the population in the rest of Britain. The poll found that 49% wanted to see less immigration, exactly the same proportion as across Britain, and 15% said it should be stopped altogether.
This is in contrast to politicians at Holyrood who tend to agree that Scotland needs more skilled migrants.
To my mind, the current polling trend began following the May 2012 local elections. Click chart to enlarge...
Since then, the averaged party shares have changed as follows...
Labour have fallen 9.1 points from 42.4 to 33.3 Tories have gained 2.3 points from 31.7 to 34 LibDem have fallen 1.5 points from 8.9 to 7.4 UKIP have gained 6.1 points from 8.3 to 14.4 I don't have full data for the Greens, but they have essentially come from nowhere to 6 points.
On the face of this, it does appear to be the case that Labour are losing the battle for support, as opposed to the Tories winning it.
Anyone offering a bet that UKIP will take more seats off Labour than the Tories?
That's complicated by the fact that the Tories currently hold the marginal seats that in normal elections move between the two big parties - such as Cannock Chase, South Thanet, Thurrock, South Basildon and East Thurrock, which were all Conservative gains from Labour in 2010, but are now UKIP targets.
On a bad night for the Tories, and a good one for UKIP, seats like those would be declared as UKIP gains from the Conservatives, but they are seats that would go Labour in UKIP's absence. So this makes it hard for Labour to lose more seats than the Tories, as most of the Lab/Con marginals at risk are already blue.
Incidentally, this seems to me quite different from the experience of the Lib Dems, who mainly made inroads in previously safe Tory, or safe Labour seats, with only a small number of seats that would be marginal in their absence. I think this changes the electoral dynamic in a way that hasn't been remarked upon.
I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
Were there any such polls?
Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
Almost two-thirds of Scots think immigration should be reduced, a poll commissioned by the BBC has suggested.
It suggests that Scots are almost as negative about immigration as the population in the rest of Britain. The poll found that 49% wanted to see less immigration, exactly the same proportion as across Britain, and 15% said it should be stopped altogether.
This is in contrast to politicians at Holyrood who tend to agree that Scotland needs more skilled migrants.
Typical BBC, misrepresenting British attitudes, 56% of Brits said "reduce by a lot":
2013 British Social Attitudes survey endorsed reducing immigration. Indeed, over 56% chose 'reduced a lot', while 77% chose either 'reduced a lot' or 'reduced a little'. The same question yielded similar results on the British Social Attitudes survey in 2008, adding confidence that these are reliable estimates.
I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
Were there any such polls?
Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
The sample size, selective releasing and the fact that VI is about the third question asked are all quite telling.
Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.
Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human
At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
To my knowledge, OGH has never discouraged anyone from putting up a pro-Conservative thread. David Herdson regularly contributes and he's a staunch Conservative.
If the two of you stopped whingeing and contributed some articles of your own you might see a different balance on here. OGH doesn't have to be balanced and you don;t have to come on here every day and post hundreds of contributions complaining about ow unbalanced this forum is.
I'm defending him you idiot
I have offered several articles, they obviously didn't cut the mustard
I wrote one - it got published and you need to tone down your temper. It's too early in the day. Now what did you put in the articles - if it was betting-related, I don't know whay it's not been included - some good odds on constituencies are alweays welcome.
I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
Were there any such polls?
Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
Perhaps so but it's a trifle tricky to draw inferences from polls that we don't know exist.
It may of course be the debate furore has been marginally damaging for the Tories in polling terms but this has been massively offset by the realisation at least south of the border that a Lab/SNP hookup is the likely alternative government after the GE. This has concentrated voters minds and is a disaster in the making for EdM.
The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
Its going to get very messy if the nett effect is 35ish seats have moved from the LDs to the SNP with LAB and CON seats staying roughly as they are.
With 304 seats the CONs are going so struggle to form a credible government, if the got into coalition with the LDs (with 22 LDs led by Farron that seems unlikely) and with C&S from the DUP they will get a Majority of 8 and its going to be as unstable as hell.
258 LAB + 52 SNP plus greens/PC wont be quite enough to cross the line either.
A new LIBDEM leader is not going to emerge on 8th May. Clegg will probably hold his seat IMO; even if he didn't there would be the matter of a party election. The formation of a governement would however be of the essence. I expect Cameron would just say to the Libs "It makes sense to continue the coalition. Take it or leave it". A bit like the debates really!
The problem for the Lib Dems in this scenario is that if Labour get a credible leader and Farron is seen to prevaricate about sticking the knife in... they really will head for oblivion by 2020.
I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
Were there any such polls?
Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
Perhaps so but it's a trifle tricky to draw inferences from polls that we don't know exist.
Comments
On the debates: that's possible, but the reverse could happen. Sniping, squabbling leaders bickering away *could* make Cameron look good simply for not having bothered with it.
Mr. Putney, those spreads are pretty near my predictions in the guessing game.
Mr. Jessop, not sure of the precise Sauber situation (I had heard their line of argument). Van Der Garde waiting until after testing before complaining is a bit peculiar.
There is a ruthless adherence to the message — “We are a New Model Army, we need Cromwellian discipline,” says a close ally of the prime minister.
Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP
.@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!
I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.
I pity your school teachers.
Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.
The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
Err, no...
I suspect that the former would strengthen the Tories and would also poison relationships to the point that either devomax or independence would be needlesly acrimonious. We are always going to be neighbours on this island!
I would suggest that SNP unilateralism would lead pretty quickly to an amicable devomax settlement that would be on much stronger foundations.
Candidates are named in the VI question
The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability
Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling
http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/
Do they move to the centre and pick Chuka Umunna, cant see UNITE going for that, and the voters would hate him anyway even if the blairite end of the activists might approve.
Or do they do for the full SYRIZA nutjob approach, keep the paymaster's happy, put the Member for Hornchurch in the driving seat maybe.
If they want to return to proper electability pick a moderate with some life experience. Dan Jarvis ?
13:30 - Sizing John
14:05 - Sgt Reckless
14:40 - Ned Stark
15:20 - Kitten Rock
16:00 - Swing Bowler
16:40 - Top Totti and Perfect Candidate
17:15 - Knock House
25 minutes 25 seconds
I think the more uncertain question is whether ITV will go for an earlier debate.
Yvette Cooper or Jarvis would probably be who I'd vote for, if I had a vote. Cooper's voice must be an octave or two lower than it was in 2010.
Quite apart from her little local difficulty in the HoC last week, the best bookies' odds show Nick Palmer as the hot 2/5 favourite to regain this seat, with La Soubry out at 9/4. By any normal standards these odds suggest she's pretty much a no-hoper.
For those with European holidays on the near horizon, the GBP is just under Euro 1.40 this morning. With all the Greek problems, where it will go next is anyone's guess.
Great post. I'm surprised too at the Tory leads. At the beginning of parliament I thought this would be a one-term govt only. Times were very tough, I thought they'd become unpopular very quickly and the coalition with the Lib Dems would give all the protest voters back to Labour. Then Labour picked Ed Miliband as leader, and that gave the Tories hope. Ed has singularly failed to create any enthusiasm for his party.
Miliband's big fear now must be the GE approaching with Labour having no chance of governing alone. If that scenario looks nailed-on then voters in Scotland will almost certainly be drawn to the SNP. One, as a F.U. to the Tories and two, because the SNP will be telling their supporters they have a great chance of holding the balance of power.
I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.
All eyes now on the Budget I suppose. George Osborne has proved he can win and fail at these big set-pieces.
Ed cant back out given all the fuss he has made about "any time, any place, any where", and all the minor parties are gagging for the free publicity regardless of who turns up.
However, if they refuse outright to devolve more powers to Scotland, that would provoke a second vote, sooner or later.
What happened to all those suckers who paid to become examiners..
She's about the same price to win Broxtowe as Ronaldo is to score first in the Real Madrid match tonight...
Somebody wrote earlier they can't choose a leader as bad as Ed again, Burnham would be worse, for the good of UK Politics Labour need to avoid that trap.
Personally I think Cooper or Umunna would do good jobs as Labour leader, both come over well and have enough about them to put together a stronger front line team and put proper distance between leadership and the big unions.
In the Ashcroft Polls about 5% of the entire electorate who voted Lib Dem in 2010 now say they will vote Conservative in 2015. If he hadn't lost about the same number of voters to UKIP then he would be looking at a vote share close to John Major's 42% in 1992.
"I want to put a series of names to you. In each instance can you tell me whether you think favourably or unfavourably of them, or if you have never heard of them?"
"If the general election was tomorrow, how would you vote in the Hornsey and Wood Green constituency knowing who is standing?"
http://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/03/Hornsey-Wood-Green-Lib-Dem-poll.pdf
13:30 - Douvan
14:05 - Un De Sceaux
14:40 - The Druids Nephew
15:20 - Jezki
16:00 - Annie Power
16:40 - Sego Success
17:15 - Keltus
The US has just suffered its third serious passenger rail accident in the last few weeks, along with several freight train crashes. A fair few people have been injured in the latest incident, but thankfully there have been no fatalities.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31810792
Can you imagine the furore in UK politics if either Network Rail, Railtrack or BR had/had had this sort of sequence?
http://labourlist.org/2015/03/third-ppc-publicly-declines-blair-donation/
I do love it when (Labour) politicians put principles ahead of election winning.....
It's like the *proximity talks* of Northern Ireland. And Dr No.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 7th March Projection) :
Con 314 (+4) .. Lab 248 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - TCTC
Warwickshire North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 7 Mar - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold. Warwickshire North moves from Likely Lab Gain to TCTC. Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
I rarely agree with Scott P on anything but he is quite correct that Cheltenham is here and far more important than politics. Though I'm a Flat fan and Ascot is my meeting, I can appreciate the joy with which jumps fans approach this week.
My Day One thoughts as follows:
1.30: L'AMI SERGE - DOUVAN is no price and good though he is, like so many this week, he will have to prove he can cope with quicker ground and a faster run race which will put pressure on his jumping. He may win but he's no value and I'll go with the Henderson horse.
2.05: VIBRATO VALTAT - there are fools, damn fools and people who bet odds-on in novice chases. UN DE SCEAUX fell on his chase outing and his jumping will be put to the test here. He's absolutely no value and the more experienced Nicholls runner will do for me.
2.40: THE DRUID'S NEPHEW - potentially well handicapped and worth an e/w bet if you can get 10s or bigger.
3.20: THE NEW ONE - was he unlucky last year when hampered early on ? He didn't impress everyone at Haydock but the ground and track will suit. FAUGHEEN could win this easily but 6/4 is very short and I can't have either JEZKI or HURRICANE FLY.
4.00: ANNIE POWER - she's miles ahead of these on the numbers and while I just question if 2 and a half is really her trip these days, she should have too much for these but she won't carry my money.
4.40 & 5.15: No idea - the 5.15 looks a tough a race as you'll find.
Enjoy the day and hope somebody (other than the bookies) makes some money.
Well said. The issue though, in any form of trading, is ruthless objectivity. I do not bet on politics but I do trade FX. Never fall in love with your position is a cast iron rule. One can read OGH's politics like a book - but I expect his bottom line reflects realpolitik rather than mere politics.
The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
3% of 2010 Tories are voting Labour now, but 8% (yes eight per cent) of 2010 Labour are voting Tory now.
Here the fulcrum point for a number of bookies is +/-3.5 seats (i.e. 3 or fewer, or more than 4 seats in normal parlance), compared with the three seats they hold at present.
The election models http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and http://electionsetc.com/ show them winning one seat and three seats respectively, whilst Sporting Index have them at 3.0 - 3.6 (with some defence as ever protecting the upside). So far as I can see therefore, the consensus view is that Plaid will win three or fewer seats, with only a slimish, say 30% chance of them winning four seats or more ..... at least that's my gut feeling.
I was pleasantly surprised therefore to discover that those nice folk at Ladbrokes are currently offering even money odds on the party winning fewer than 3.5 seats and surprisingly skinnier odds of 8/11 on them winning more than 3.5 seats, thereby providing the Magic Sign with a very fair 7.9% margin on this market.
Definitely NOT one to bet the house on, but possibly worth a couple of pints of Old Speckled Hen should you agree with me.
As ever DYOR.
If the two of you stopped whingeing and contributed some articles of your own you might see a different balance on here. OGH doesn't have to be balanced and you don;t have to come on here every day and post hundreds of contributions complaining about ow unbalanced this forum is.
I have offered several articles, they obviously didn't cut the mustard
The anti-Labour majority (in terms of posts if not posters) mob in full hue and cry this morning and getting the champagne ready for a Party on May 8th.
I don't buy a sudden 4% swing from Labour to Conservative over the weekend - I put it down to nothing more than people feeling positive with a nice sunny day on Saturday. We'll see how much of an outlier ICM was on the Tory number in due course and as OGH said ysterday it was turnout filtering which supported the Conservative lead on the Ashcroft numbers.
We know the Conservative vote is more likely to turn out (or be turned out) but that's not to say as we get nearer the battle, the Labour and other votes won't be motivated to come out as well.
The next big event is the Budget next week and I expect it to be as political as Osborne can get way with.
Labour 2010 Vote:427
Labour 2015 Vote:418
With 304 seats the CONs are going so struggle to form a credible government, if the got into coalition with the LDs (with 22 LDs led by Farron that seems unlikely) and with C&S from the DUP they will get a Majority of 8 and its going to be as unstable as hell.
258 LAB + 52 SNP plus greens/PC wont be quite enough to cross the line either.
Then there is the problem of Blair. Blair increasingly looks like not the net asset he was perceived as when in office, but as just another form of Labour debt with the repayments dumped on hapless future generations. The more we hear of and from him, the worse he looks. You hear Tories wishing they had Maggie back but when did you ever hear a Labouroid wishing they had Tony back?
The electoral benefit he provided has yet to be repaid. I had dinner with friends of my parents on Saturday, not political people at all. One commented that he would not be particularly surprised if Blair did time one day. Didn't think it was likely, but given all the lying, not in any way out of the question.
Straws in the wind, but interesting.
It should be at least 10.
YG: 35
Ashcroft 34
Opinium 34 (35 on certain to vote)
Comres 34
Ipsos 34 (35 on certain to vote)
Survation 28
Populus 32
TNS 28
https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/574907498987143168
It suggests that Scots are almost as negative about immigration as the population in the rest of Britain.
The poll found that 49% wanted to see less immigration, exactly the same proportion as across Britain, and 15% said it should be stopped altogether.
This is in contrast to politicians at Holyrood who tend to agree that Scotland needs more skilled migrants.
http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-31800374
1:30 Qewy
2:05 Court Minstrel
2:40 Gallant Oscar
3:20 Jezki
4:00 Polly Peachum
4:40 Very Wood
5:15 Keltus
Gov't Approval at -14 is the highest for quite some time too.
On a bad night for the Tories, and a good one for UKIP, seats like those would be declared as UKIP gains from the Conservatives, but they are seats that would go Labour in UKIP's absence. So this makes it hard for Labour to lose more seats than the Tories, as most of the Lab/Con marginals at risk are already blue.
Incidentally, this seems to me quite different from the experience of the Lib Dems, who mainly made inroads in previously safe Tory, or safe Labour seats, with only a small number of seats that would be marginal in their absence. I think this changes the electoral dynamic in a way that hasn't been remarked upon.
So please no statements from anybody suggesting I have. Betting is all about perceptions of value..
I take a dim view of people trying to put words in my mouth
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister