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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    This Hammond comment struck a chord:

    We are in familiar territory for anyone over the age of about 50, with Russia’s behaviour a stark reminder that it has the potential to pose the single greatest threat to our security.

    Potential is one thing actuality is another. In reality between 1970 and 1997 the IRA posed a far greater threat to people of this country than the USSR!
    I think you missed Hammond's point.

    Can you think of two leading politicians in positions of great responsibility below the age of 50?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    Unfortunately its for show. It needs a treaty change, which Poland have said it will veto, and in any case Merkel has blocked any treaty changes for British renegotiations.

    Really?

    Amazing that you know this, given that the negotiations haven't started.
    It's wasn't hard, he's already told everyone.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/11266917/Poland-will-block-bid-to-slash-EU-migrant-benefits-minister-warns.html

    Poland would block David Cameron's plans to clampdown on European Union migrants claiming benefits unless he applies the measures to Britons as well, one of its ministers has said.

    Rafal Trzaskowski said it was an ''absolute red line'' for his government that there is no discrimination in the welfare system on grounds of nationality.
    as has she

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/550791/Angela-Merkel-rejects-Cameron-s-attempts-curb-benefit-tourism
    But she declined to support the idea of any change in EU treaties to give national governments more power to restrict benefits to European citizens.
    So, let's get this straight, when you start a negotiation you give up before the start and simply accept the other side's indications of the opening position as final?

    In any case Angela Merkel hasn't said what you think she has said. It may well be that changing the treaties is not the best way of restricting benefits for EU migrants. The EU has a very distinguished record of finding creative ways of getting round problems like that.

    If you think there is some ambiguity in the term ''absolute red line'' I would be fascinated to hear it.

    If its not a treaty change it can be overturned in the ECJ, strangely enough Poland have already pre-emptively filed such a case to get the ECJ to declare that paying benefits on different terms to nationals and immigrants would be unlawful.

    But I understand. Dave-Right, Dave-Right, Dave-Right, yes, fair enough, if it makes you comfortable.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Scott_P said:

    I doubt that'll work well - not many people will have any idea who the man in the picture is

    Why have UKIP put a picture of Johnny Morris on a poster?
    Well the man has a pretty obvious EU tie on him - maybe some people might recognise that.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. Urquhart, quite despicable, that was mentioned yesterday.

    Glad to see Hammond having a go at apologists for murderers today.

    A speech is a start. It's not sufficient. There needs to be action. I have suggested a range of actions which could be taken. Is it too much to expect someone in government to come up with some ideas, some practical steps and some timings?

    A very close look at the charitable status of the IHRC, for instance, is needed. Given that sharia law has been deemed by the ECHR to be incompatible with the European Convention I find it hard to see how it can properly be described as a charity.

    It will be interesting to see the Labour reaction. I do worry that they lack the willingness to take the tough decisions needed to really challenge the ideology of extremism and terrorism, even if they are clear on being against it.
    I find it extraordinary that an organisation like the Islamic Human Rights Commission Trust can be granted charitable status, when that status is denied to bodies like the British Union for the Abolition of Vivisection, or the National Secular Society.

    In each case, these are political campaigning organisations, and should be treated the same way.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548

    Cyclefree said:

    A new low: Charlie Hebdo's murdered staff receive an 'Islamophobe of the Year' award

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/the-islamophobe-of-the-year-event-reached-a-new-low-this-year/

    That was mentioned yesterday. Despicable but not surprising, given that the Islamic Human Rights Commission defines human rights as only those rights permitted under sharia law. So not human rights at all, in fact.

    It should properly be named the Islamic Theocracy Commission.

    More depressing than this entirely predictable but rancid gesture are those morally vacuous twits who have sent it messages of congratulation. The list can be found here - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/03/10/just-a-short-post-on-the-islamic-human-rights-commission/.
    Some unsurprising names in that list e.g Lord Ahmed...the man who claimed a Jewish conspiracy was behind his own conviction and sentencing for dangerous driving shortly before being involved in a fatal car crash.
    This article by Mehdi Hasan after that conviction was quite blunt about the anti-Semitism to be found amongst Muslims in Britain - http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/anti-semitism-british-muslim-community_b_2922013.html.

    "It is sheer hypocrisy for Muslims to complain of Islamophobia in every nook and cranny of British public life, to denounce the newspapers for running Muslim-baiting headlines, and yet ignore the rampant anti-Semitism in our own backyard. We cannot credibly fight Islamophobia while making excuses for Judaeophobia."

    Perhaps if people had paid more attention we wouldn't now be surprised when Jews are spat at on the streets of Bradford or at Jews worrying about whether they have a future.

    Lord Ahmed is also the person who threatened to have loads of people descend on Parliament if Geert Wilders was allowed into the country. Lovely man: threatening violence in the Mother of Parliaments

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
    I think strictly speaking he will be voting Labour* (just a very strong hunch!) in Bedford while his mate votes LibDem in Twickenham. Then both can salve their consciences.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,529

    Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    If 1999 is recent.
  • Andrew Sparrow: Guardian's seat projection has been updated - big shift - Tories 279, Lab 266, SNP 52, LDs 27, Ukip 4, Greens 1

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/10/philip-hammonds-speech-defending-mi5-and-mi6-politics-live-blog#block-54fec890e4b0511e8bf1a3de

    Hard to form a stable government out of that lot. Con+LD would be short. Lab+SNP would be short. Lab+SNP+LD would give a majority of about 22 (discounting Sinn Fein). Even if you can get all 3 parties to agree, it wouldn't take many by-elections or defections to wipe that out. Major had a majority of 21 in 1992 and barely hung on for 5 years with a single party government. Keeping 3 parties happy for 5 years would be very tough.

    I do wonder with the fixed term parliaments act, whether we could see a mid term government switch.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Anthony Wells on 'leaked' private polls - in this case the Lib Dem ones:

    note the question order. They ask approval of local MP *before* asking how people will vote

    +publication bias. They have done 100 polls. MoE is +/-5%. Random error gives some good results. They publish those

    Lol. Talk about Comfort Polling.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. Urquhart, quite despicable, that was mentioned yesterday.

    Glad to see Hammond having a go at apologists for murderers today.

    A speech is a start. It's not sufficient. There needs to be action. I have suggested a range of actions which could be taken. Is it too much to expect someone in government to come up with some ideas, some practical steps and some timings?

    A very close look at the charitable status of the IHRC, for instance, is needed. Given that sharia law has been deemed by the ECHR to be incompatible with the European Convention I find it hard to see how it can properly be described as a charity.

    It will be interesting to see the Labour reaction. I do worry that they lack the willingness to take the tough decisions needed to really challenge the ideology of extremism and terrorism, even if they are clear on being against it.
    Once someone takes a line on something it is v rare to see a complete and honest admission that they were wrong. Labour have promoted the multiculturalism that fostered the division between factions of society and resulted in British jihad. I agree with you that try are wrong, but an honest admission is too much to ask, it's v rare in human nature to do that
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited March 2015
    A couple of days ago I asked for the collective view on key seats but got no response. No-one with an opinion to share?

    The holding of which seat would signal the Tories are on course to be the biggest party at Westminster?

    The winning of which seat would signal that a Tory majority is possible?

    The loss of which seat would signal that Labour could end up with fewer seats than in 2010?

    The holding of which seat would signal the LibDems have defied gravity and could end up with 30+ seats?

    The failure to win/hold which seat indicates lots of votes but few, if any seats for UKIP?

    The winning of which seat really does establish a game changer for the SNP at Westminster?
    If you want a quick result then you won't have to wait long. The three Sunderland Seats (which declare before Midnight) will give a very good indication whether the WWC are going to desert Labour for UKIP.

    Currently Labour have about 50% of the vote and UNS (before the recent polls) suggested that they would get 55% or so and UKIP 17%. There is also quite a reasonable Conservative presence in the seats. i.e. they are not quite Labour heartlands.

    If Labour do get 55% then EICIPM. If they get <50% and Conservative vote holds up then CICIPM. If they get <40% and UKIP > 20% then FICIKM (Farage is Crap - is King Maker)

  • This Hammond comment struck a chord:

    We are in familiar territory for anyone over the age of about 50, with Russia’s behaviour a stark reminder that it has the potential to pose the single greatest threat to our security.

    Potential is one thing actuality is another. In reality between 1970 and 1997 the IRA posed a far greater threat to people of this country than the USSR!
    I think you missed Hammond's point.

    Can you think of two leading politicians in positions of great responsibility below the age of 50?
    That quote mentions nothing about leaders or responsibility.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A new low: Charlie Hebdo's murdered staff receive an 'Islamophobe of the Year' award

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/the-islamophobe-of-the-year-event-reached-a-new-low-this-year/

    That was mentioned yesterday. Despicable but not surprising, given that the Islamic Human Rights Commission defines human rights as only those rights permitted under sharia law. So not human rights at all, in fact.

    It should properly be named the Islamic Theocracy Commission.

    More depressing than this entirely predictable but rancid gesture are those morally vacuous twits who have sent it messages of congratulation. The list can be found here - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/03/10/just-a-short-post-on-the-islamic-human-rights-commission/.
    Some unsurprising names in that list e.g Lord Ahmed...the man who claimed a Jewish conspiracy was behind his own conviction and sentencing for dangerous driving shortly before being involved in a fatal car crash.
    This article by Mehdi Hasan after that conviction was quite blunt about the anti-Semitism to be found amongst Muslims in Britain - http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/anti-semitism-british-muslim-community_b_2922013.html.

    "It is sheer hypocrisy for Muslims to complain of Islamophobia in every nook and cranny of British public life, to denounce the newspapers for running Muslim-baiting headlines, and yet ignore the rampant anti-Semitism in our own backyard. We cannot credibly fight Islamophobia while making excuses for Judaeophobia."

    Perhaps if people had paid more attention we wouldn't now be surprised when Jews are spat at on the streets of Bradford or at Jews worrying about whether they have a future.

    Lord Ahmed is also the person who threatened to have loads of people descend on Parliament if Geert Wilders was allowed into the country. Lovely man: threatening violence in the Mother of Parliaments

    It's not the IHRC that disgusts me, particularly. Their behaviour is what you'd expect from a bigoted, sectarian organisation.

    It's their useful idiots like Rowan Williams, Peter Oborne, Lord Avebury,, Sarah Teather et al that disgust me.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Are you in a marginal ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,133
    Miss Cyclefree, the same Mehdi Hasan described non-Muslims as 'living like animals'.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,350
    Reasonable and timely speech by Hammond this morning. But not as punchy as Cyclefree's comments last night.

    I think she is right. We must be less tolerant of this intolerance. In fact we must find it intolerable!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015

    Miss Cyclefree, the same Mehdi Hasan described non-Muslims as 'living like animals'.

    And still invited on to the likes of QT and other politics shows totally unchallenged over those comments....imagine if a Jew made similar comments about Muslims, it would be the Nick Griffin lynch mob appearance and then banished from our screens, and if you use the word golly off air, well you will never work at the BBC again.

    I am sure there is some consistency there somewhere, but hey as Adrain Chiles said the other week, well it was only a few minutes of anti-Semitic abuse and weren't you inviting trouble by walking around looking like that?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,956
    JohnO said:

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
    I think strictly speaking he will be voting Labour* (just a very strong hunch!) in Bedford while his mate votes LibDem in Twickenham. Then both can salve their consciences.
    In a very small way this allows you to mitigate the unfairness caused by FPTP. Tactical voting is a much more important way of doing that.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2015
    Indigo said:

    If you think there is some ambiguity in the term ''absolute red line'' I would be fascinated to hear it.

    If its not a treaty change it can be overturned in the ECJ, strangely enough Poland have already pre-emptively filed such a case to get the ECJ to declare that paying benefits on different terms to nationals and immigrants would be unlawful.

    But I understand. Dave-Right, Dave-Right, Dave-Right, yes, fair enough, if it makes you comfortable.

    Yes, the principle of free movement of labour is sacrosanct, so in that sense it is true that whilst we remain in the EU there's little that can be done in respect of EU migration (and indeed not much if we leave, but that's another matter). However, as regards benefits, Cameron is knocking on an open door. If there's one thing which you can be absolutely certain will be achievable in the renegotiation, it is that. It's a no-brainer, to be honest - a concession from our EU friends which costs them nothing and which many of them - including Germany - would themselves like. Of course the Poles might need to be bought off with some bauble, but so what?

    Of course, it won't make make very much difference to the total migration numbers, but as a concession which can be touted by Cameron as an achievement of the renegotiation it's probably the easiest one of all.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates.

    Not that it matters but I very much hope that the 2% GDP commtment on defence will be in the manifesto for the next Parliament.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    JohnO said:

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
    I think strictly speaking he will be voting Labour* (just a very strong hunch!) in Bedford while his mate votes LibDem in Twickenham. Then both can salve their consciences.
    It wouldn't happen if we had a fair voting system, i.e. PR. It's an offence to vote twice but to me the rest is a legally grey area and I'm not a lawyer.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Hilarious PB Tory excitability syndrome strikes again, a few MOE leads and suddenly Labour are mysteriously going to drop to 1.2% and the Conservatives are headed for a thousand year reich on 98% of the vote. Realistically, it does look like we are now talking about a dead heat in the polls, which would not be enough for Dave to stay given his complete lack of fellow travellers. Labour could definitely be performing a lot more effectively right now, but I think a modest revival for them in the last few weeks as the ABTs wake up is as likely as the opposite scenario to be honest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,133
    Mr. Urquhart, Starkey challenged Hasan [whose name he also forgot], but Hasan's rejection of the correct claim was as far as it went.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A new low: Charlie Hebdo's murdered staff receive an 'Islamophobe of the Year' award

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/the-islamophobe-of-the-year-event-reached-a-new-low-this-year/

    That was mentioned yesterday. Despicable but not surprising, given that the Islamic Human Rights Commission defines human rights as only those rights permitted under sharia law. So not human rights at all, in fact.

    It should properly be named the Islamic Theocracy Commission.

    More depressing than this entirely predictable but rancid gesture are those morally vacuous twits who have sent it messages of congratulation. The list can be found here - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/03/10/just-a-short-post-on-the-islamic-human-rights-commission/.
    Some unsurprising names in that list e.g Lord Ahmed...the man who claimed a Jewish conspiracy was behind his own conviction and sentencing for dangerous driving shortly before being involved in a fatal car crash.
    This article by Mehdi Hasan after that conviction was quite blunt about the anti-Semitism to be found amongst Muslims in Britain - http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/anti-semitism-british-muslim-community_b_2922013.html.

    "It is sheer hypocrisy for Muslims to complain of Islamophobia in every nook and cranny of British public life, to denounce the newspapers for running Muslim-baiting headlines, and yet ignore the rampant anti-Semitism in our own backyard. We cannot credibly fight Islamophobia while making excuses for Judaeophobia."

    Perhaps if people had paid more attention we wouldn't now be surprised when Jews are spat at on the streets of Bradford or at Jews worrying about whether they have a future.

    Lord Ahmed is also the person who threatened to have loads of people descend on Parliament if Geert Wilders was allowed into the country. Lovely man: threatening violence in the Mother of Parliaments

    It's not the IHRC that disgusts me, particularly. Their behaviour is what you'd expect from a bigoted, sectarian organisation.

    It's their useful idiots like Rowan Williams, Peter Oborne, Lord Avebury,, Sarah Teather et al that disgust me.

    Hear, Hear!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    JWisemann said:

    Hilarious PB Tory excitability syndrome strikes again, a few MOE leads and suddenly Labour are mysteriously going to drop to 1.2% and the Conservatives are headed for a thousand year reich on 98% of the vote. Realistically, it does look like we are now talking about a dead heat in the polls, which would not be enough for Dave to stay given his complete lack of fellow travellers. Labour could definitely be performing a lot more effectively right now, but I think a modest revival for them in the last few weeks as the ABTs wake up is as likely as the opposite scenario to be honest.

    The trend is your friend.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Shadsy has updated o/u seats markets too now

    Con 283.5 from 281.5
    Lab 267.5 from 269.5

    Think the others are unchanged
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    There needs to be a difference understood being governing as a coalition as to governing in coalition as the 2 are very different,the first is open to all and sundry inclusively without tribalism,the second is the kind of exclusion we have with the current straightjacket CON-LD now.Which leader,Dave or Ed,is more likely to achieve consensus to build a coalition as evidenced by the Climate Change Act?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740

    JohnO said:

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
    I think strictly speaking he will be voting Labour* (just a very strong hunch!) in Bedford while his mate votes LibDem in Twickenham. Then both can salve their consciences.
    It wouldn't happen if we had a fair voting system, i.e. PR. It's an offence to vote twice but to me the rest is a legally grey area and I'm not a lawyer.
    " It's an offence to vote twice" Is it ? I think I could have done so in 2000, once in Bath and once in Coventry South. As could many others. The logistics weren't worth it and neither would have either vote made any difference though.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    South Thanet.
    "Al Murray’s party use an upside-down version of Ukip’s logo for the FUKP motif."

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/03/nigel-farage-calls-for-electoral-commission-to-be-closed/

    That is almost certainly going to confuse voters.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Looking forward to the number of PB Tory duffers managing to sound simultaneously immensely arrogant and pathetically cowardly as a Tory government looks increasingly unlikely, as they say they are 'arranging their affairs' in case of Ed. Maybe we could make it a drinking game.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Are you in a marginal ?
    No. Very safe Tory seat.

    There's absolutely no reason for anyone to care about my vote. Except me, and I take it very seriously. Even if that's illogical.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    JWisemann said:

    Hilarious PB Tory excitability syndrome strikes again, a few MOE leads and suddenly Labour are mysteriously going to drop to 1.2% and the Conservatives are headed for a thousand year reich on 98% of the vote. Realistically, it does look like we are now talking about a dead heat in the polls, which would not be enough for Dave to stay given his complete lack of fellow travellers. Labour could definitely be performing a lot more effectively right now, but I think a modest revival for them in the last few weeks as the ABTs wake up is as likely as the opposite scenario to be honest.

    Anyone not expecting a swing in England from Labour to Tory in the final weeks of the campaign is a fool. History shows this as almost always inevitable.

    What is significant here is that it appears to be starting earlier than normal. Perhaps this is an effect on a much longer Campaign period than usual. Or maybe Ed is just so Toxic he needs to go now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740

    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Are you in a marginal ?
    No. Very safe Tory seat.

    There's absolutely no reason for anyone to care about my vote. Except me, and I take it very seriously. Even if that's illogical.
    Well it certainly shouldn't be a "negative" vote. If the Conservatives match your philosophy go with them, if UKIP - likewise. Ed's not getting in off the back of your vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour MPs disowning Ed (again) on the doorstep

    @LabourList: Scottish Labour MPs are ruling out a deal with the SNP on the doorstep http://labli.st/1E2FiQP
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Scott_P said:

    Labour MPs disowning Ed (again) on the doorstep

    @LabourList: Scottish Labour MPs are ruling out a deal with the SNP on the doorstep http://labli.st/1E2FiQP

    Ferrets and sacks spring to mind.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates.

    Not that it matters but I very much hope that the 2% GDP commtment on defence will be in the manifesto for the next Parliament.
    Thanks John. To be honest, the most basic issue is respect.

    The biggest thing that turns me off coming back is my belief that the ultra-modernisers would arrogantly cry out about how it was all a giant strop, I've come back to mummy because people like me have no real alternative and nowhere else to go, that I shouldn't be indulged in future, and that I can be safely ignored, ridiculed and sidelined going forwards.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2015
    BBC - The pound has reached a more-than seven year high against the euro, a day after the European Central Bank (ECB) began its government bond buying programme. - Sterling rose 0.45% to hit €1.40 for the first time since December 2007.

    City analysts said continued fears over a Greek exit from the eurozone helped push the pound higher. - It came after the head of the eurozone finance ministers' group called on Greece to "stop wasting time" and engage in serious talks on reform.

    Should we buy our summer holiday Euros now – or wait for the whole shabang to collapse?


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31811791
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
    I think strictly speaking he will be voting Labour* (just a very strong hunch!) in Bedford while his mate votes LibDem in Twickenham. Then both can salve their consciences.
    It wouldn't happen if we had a fair voting system, i.e. PR. It's an offence to vote twice but to me the rest is a legally grey area and I'm not a lawyer.
    " It's an offence to vote twice" Is it ? I think I could have done so in 2000, once in Bath and once in Coventry South. As could many others. The logistics weren't worth it and neither would have either vote made any difference though.
    Representation of the People Act 1983 s.61(2)
    A person shall be guilty of an offence if—
    (a)he votes as elector otherwise than by proxy either—
    (i)more than once in the same constituency at any parliamentary election, or more than once in the same electoral area at any local government election; or
    (ii)in more than one constituency at a general election, or in more than one electoral area at an ordinary election of councillors for a local government area which is not a single electoral area; or
    (iii)in any constituency at a general election, or in any electoral area at such an ordinary election as mentioned above, when there is in force an appointment of a person to vote as his proxy at the election in some other constituency or electoral area;
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    Dair said:

    JWisemann said:

    History shows this as almost always inevitable.

    Past performance is not a guide to future performance. As lunatics like Rod Crosby with his 99% predictions of a Tory majority are soon to find out. The details of this election are very unique in case you hadn't noticed. (And what you are describing is the opposite of what happened in 2010).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited March 2015
    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Sean_F said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    A new low: Charlie Hebdo's murdered staff receive an 'Islamophobe of the Year' award

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/the-islamophobe-of-the-year-event-reached-a-new-low-this-year/

    That was mentioned yesterday. Despicable but not surprising, given that the Islamic Human Rights Commission defines human rights as only those rights permitted under sharia law. So not human rights at all, in fact.

    It should properly be named the Islamic Theocracy Commission.

    More depressing than this entirely predictable but rancid gesture are those morally vacuous twits who have sent it messages of congratulation. The list can be found here - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/03/10/just-a-short-post-on-the-islamic-human-rights-commission/.
    Some unsurprising names in that list e.g Lord Ahmed...the man who claimed a Jewish conspiracy was behind his own conviction and sentencing for dangerous driving shortly before being involved in a fatal car crash.
    This article by Mehdi Hasan after that conviction was quite blunt about the anti-Semitism to be found amongst Muslims in Britain - http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/mehdi-hasan/anti-semitism-british-muslim-community_b_2922013.html.

    "It is sheer hypocrisy for Muslims to complain of Islamophobia in every nook and cranny of British public life, to denounce the newspapers for running Muslim-baiting headlines, and yet ignore the rampant anti-Semitism in our own backyard. We cannot credibly fight Islamophobia while making excuses for Judaeophobia."

    Perhaps if people had paid more attention we wouldn't now be surprised when Jews are spat at on the streets of Bradford or at Jews worrying about whether they have a future.

    Lord Ahmed is also the person who threatened to have loads of people descend on Parliament if Geert Wilders was allowed into the country. Lovely man: threatening violence in the Mother of Parliaments

    It's not the IHRC that disgusts me, particularly. Their behaviour is what you'd expect from a bigoted, sectarian organisation.

    It's their useful idiots like Rowan Williams, Peter Oborne, Lord Avebury,, Sarah Teather et al that disgust me.

    I think Rowan Williams was the most irritating non-politician in public life of the last 15 years. And that is up against some pretty stiff competition.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,628
    Broken sleazy Labour on the slide?

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/574994996128014336
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates.

    Not that it matters but I very much hope that the 2% GDP commtment on defence will be in the manifesto for the next Parliament.
    You can admire someone and yet detest them. Putin has obtained and is retaining political power in Russia and promoting Russia's interests abroad with great panache and aplomb. Yet it is exactly because of that that many people in the UK detest him.

    You can admire Hitler's political skills at obtaining power in Germany for his political party - but detest him vigorously.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    This Hammond comment struck a chord:

    We are in familiar territory for anyone over the age of about 50, with Russia’s behaviour a stark reminder that it has the potential to pose the single greatest threat to our security.

    Potential is one thing actuality is another. In reality between 1970 and 1997 the IRA posed a far greater threat to people of this country than the USSR!
    I think you missed Hammond's point.

    Can you think of two leading politicians in positions of great responsibility below the age of 50?
    That quote mentions nothing about leaders or responsibility.
    Quite, if it did the point conveyed would much different to the scaremongering that it was otherwise. I am aware of what old cold warriors like James Matlock, Henry Kissinger and Lord Heseltine think of the purported threat. Hammond lacks that maturity and experience.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @SimonStClare
    Yummy! Think of all those lovely imports we can buy.
    I am sure there is a downside though?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740

    The biggest thing that turns me off coming back is my belief that the ultra-modernisers would arrogantly cry out about how it was all a giant strop, I've come back to mummy because people like me have no real alternative and nowhere else to go, that I shouldn't be indulged in future, and that I can be safely ignored, ridiculed and sidelined going forwards.

    I wonder how many Indy "No" voters who were wavering feel this way with the frankly disgraceful attitude shown towards Scotland after the Indyref by a fair few.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    JWisemann said:

    Looking forward to the number of PB Tory duffers managing to sound simultaneously immensely arrogant and pathetically cowardly as a Tory government looks increasingly unlikely, as they say they are 'arranging their affairs' in case of Ed. Maybe we could make it a drinking game.

    People like you though Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock would make good PMs. We will know in a few weeks time whether the voters agree with the PB Tories or you as regards Ed Bland.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,872
    weejonnie said:

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates.

    Not that it matters but I very much hope that the 2% GDP commtment on defence will be in the manifesto for the next Parliament.
    You can admire someone and yet detest them. Putin has obtained and is retaining political power in Russia and promoting Russia's interests abroad with great panache and aplomb. Yet it is exactly because of that that many people in the UK detest him.

    You can admire Hitler's political skills at obtaining power in Germany for his political party - but detest him vigorously.
    I would take the view that, as a statesman, Putin far outclasses any Western head of government. That doesn't mean I don't see him as a threat.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    I think Hendon, Lincoln, North Warwickshire and Carlisle are seats to watch. Tories hold them all and Dave is going nowhere. Pbers may not like her but the rather combative attitude of Anna Soubry does her no harm in my opinion. She is alleged to have said what most voters appear to think, namely that Ed is a sanctimonious c**t. No doubt he will propose a law to outlaw such suggestions.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.

    To be honest, and I don't want to be rude, I take your predictions with a bit of a pinch of salt given your exuberant forecasts for Tory performance in Scotland in GE2010. The flipside of that was the way you gave up all hope just a few weeks out from the indyref, whilst DavidL was out fighting and campaigning every day. You were all negativity in your posts on here.

    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Are you in a marginal ?
    No. Very safe Tory seat.

    There's absolutely no reason for anyone to care about my vote. Except me, and I take it very seriously. Even if that's illogical.
    Well it certainly shouldn't be a "negative" vote. If the Conservatives match your philosophy go with them, if UKIP - likewise. Ed's not getting in off the back of your vote.
    Neither do. But I probably sympathise most with the sensible Tory right, but not the ones who are still obsessed by Thatcher or ConWayForward who want to relive the 1980s again and contain a few less than pleasant individuals.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    JWisemann said:

    Past performance is not a guide to future performance. As lunatics like Rod Crosby with his 99% predictions of a Tory majority are soon to find out. The details of this election are very unique in case you hadn't noticed. (And what you are describing is the opposite of what happened in 2010).

    Rod Crosby hasn't made "99% predictions" and isn't a lunatic. He has just reported on what a particular (previously successful) model shows when poll findings/by election results are entered.

    You're showing yourself up as a total fool by revealing that you don't understand this.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2015
    for those wanting to follow ptp's tip;

    For the next 15 mins, William Hill are offering 6/1 on Jezki in the 3.20.

    Take it each way.

    Edit - and BFSB are still going 5/2 on Un de Sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths. Decent odds imo.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    This is reaching a new level of fatuousness even for you. Does admiration for someone imply approval of all or indeed any of their acts ?

    One could admire Chuck Berry as being a great musician and the father of rock and roll, whilst not being over impressed by his convictions for armed robbery and transporting a minor across state lines for immoral purposes.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    I doubt that. The Reform Party of Canada, and the UK Lib Dems are the parties UKIP speaks of learning from.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496
    edited March 2015
    Down, down. Down, down. Way On Down....

    :smiley::smiley::smiley:

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    I doubt that. The Reform Party of Canada, and the UK Lib Dems are the parties UKIP speaks of learning from.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/31/farage-i-admire-putin
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
    I think strictly speaking he will be voting Labour* (just a very strong hunch!) in Bedford while his mate votes LibDem in Twickenham. Then both can salve their consciences.
    It wouldn't happen if we had a fair voting system, i.e. PR. It's an offence to vote twice but to me the rest is a legally grey area and I'm not a lawyer.
    " It's an offence to vote twice" Is it ? I think I could have done so in 2000, once in Bath and once in Coventry South. As could many others. The logistics weren't worth it and neither would have either vote made any difference though.

    Yup, you can be legally registered to vote in two locations but it is illegal to vote twice in the same election.

    So if you are registered in two different council areas you can vote in both of those but you couldn't vote in both locations in a general election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    edited March 2015
    Pong said:

    for those wanting to follow ptp's tip;

    For the next 15 mins, William Hill are offering 6/1 on Jezki in the 3.20.

    Take it each way.

    Edit - and BFSB are still going 5/2 on Un de Sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths. Decent odds imo.

    Where is this 5-2, can't find it anywhere.

    Edit: Found it, £10 max bet.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited March 2015
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    For me on 7th/8th May the "Portillo revenge" moment would be if around 2am we have a 1st recount in Morley and Outwood and then around 3am a 1st recount in Twickenham followed at breakfast time by confirmation both Ed and Vince had lost by fewer than 500 votes.

    OGH is voting for Vince even though he lives about 100 miles away.

    I think it's corrupt, anti democratic and bordering on electoral fraud.
    I think strictly speaking he will be voting Labour* (just a very strong hunch!) in Bedford while his mate votes LibDem in Twickenham. Then both can salve their consciences.
    It wouldn't happen if we had a fair voting system, i.e. PR. It's an offence to vote twice but to me the rest is a legally grey area and I'm not a lawyer.
    " It's an offence to vote twice" Is it ? I think I could have done so in 2000, once in Bath and once in Coventry South. As could many others. The logistics weren't worth it and neither would have either vote made any difference though.

    Yup, you can be legally registered to vote in two locations but it is illegal to vote twice in the same election.

    So if you are registered in two different council areas you can vote in both of those but you couldn't vote in both locations in a general election.
    Of course, 70ish years ago we still had some University constituencies which would legally allow "one man more than one vote" at the general election.

    EDIT: The University Constituencies were elected under STV in the main a well.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,105
    Scott_P said:

    Labour MPs disowning Ed (again) on the doorstep

    @LabourList: Scottish Labour MPs are ruling out a deal with the SNP on the doorstep http://labli.st/1E2FiQP

    Just as the Conservatives ruled out a deal with the Liberal Democrats until the afternoon after the election when David "no deals" Cameron suddenly wanted to do a deal.

    Risible spinning once again from the Tory side.

    No doubt Cameron will make the same offer to the SNP the day after the next election.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    Indigo said:

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    Does admiration for someone imply approval of all or indeed any of their acts ?

    I've never suggested it does. Nor have I ever mentioned anything about 'fondness', as implied in a post above.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/31/farage-i-admire-putin

    Kippers seem overly touchy about this interview for GQ. Why might that be?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496

    JWisemann said:

    Past performance is not a guide to future performance. As lunatics like Rod Crosby with his 99% predictions of a Tory majority are soon to find out. The details of this election are very unique in case you hadn't noticed. (And what you are describing is the opposite of what happened in 2010).

    Rod Crosby hasn't made "99% predictions" and isn't a lunatic. He has just reported on what a particular (previously successful) model shows when poll findings/by election results are entered.

    You're showing yourself up as a total fool by revealing that you don't understand this.
    Lefties getting desperate already I see...

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,296
    edited March 2015

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    Jack, in Scotland I see Ochil as being pretty much low hanging fruit for the SNP. They already hold the Holyrood seat with Annabel Ewing in post. It only needs a 5% swing. Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    She is too aggressive. I don't like Nick Palmer's politics, but I don't like her either.



    I'm sure I'm not the only Conservative who was disappointed in you. I'm afraid I now heavily discount your analysis.
    You wrote Conservative (capital C)...are you now planning to vote that way in May?
    Don't know. I might. I have serious doubts on immmigration, defence and europe. But I worry about the direction UKIP is moving in - to the economic left - and am absolutely terrified at the idea of Ed Miliband being in power.
    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates.

    Not that it matters but I very much hope that the 2% GDP commtment on defence will be in the manifesto for the next Parliament.
    Thanks John. To be honest, the most basic issue is respect.

    The biggest thing that turns me off coming back is my belief that the ultra-modernisers would arrogantly cry out about how it was all a giant strop, I've come back to mummy because people like me have no real alternative and nowhere else to go, that I shouldn't be indulged in future, and that I can be safely ignored, ridiculed and sidelined going forwards.
    PB is a little world of its own, but I can't think of many (if any) of the Tory 'modernisers' on this site (among whose ranks I belong....albeit my description of choice is 'traditional moderate') who would think that way.

    Cliched as it is, the Conservatives must be a broad church and those with trenchant views on immigration, defence and the EU are hardly inimical to such a coalition. It's the balance that matters and in my view UKIP, and particularly its leadership, are simply too distant from the Tory mainstream.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    I doubt that. The Reform Party of Canada, and the UK Lib Dems are the parties UKIP speaks of learning from.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/31/farage-i-admire-putin
    "Asked which current world leader he most admired, Farage replied: "As an operator, but not as a human being, I would say Putin.

    "The way he played the whole Syria thing. Brilliant. Not that I approve of him politically. How many journalists in jail now?""

    That's not 'fondness for Vladamir Putin.'
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    stodge said:

    Risible spinning once again from the Tory side.

    Labourlist.

    the clue is in the name...
  • JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    Well who else is there to admire?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2015
    Pong said:

    for those wanting to follow ptp's tip;

    For the next 15 mins, William Hill are offering 6/1 on Jezki in the 3.20.

    Take it each way.

    Edit - and BFSB are still going 5/2 on Un de Sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths. Decent odds imo.

    Ladbrokes currently 8/1 on Jezki.

    Maybe he's got a gammy leg or something?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    stodge said:

    Just as the Conservatives ruled out a deal with the Liberal Democrats until the afternoon after the election when David "no deals" Cameron suddenly wanted to do a deal.

    I don't think they ever ruled out any deals, did they? They used the standard 'we are working for a majority' line, if memory serves me correctly.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Casino Royal, I am not a member of any political party though I have been a life long Tory voter. Had Gordon Brown not intervened (and in the long term done more harm than good as is always the case) the YES vote would have won in September. In May we may very well see the SNP move to complete the job. I don't give the UK more than another 5-10 years as a single political entity.

    Interesting that the BBC Daily Politics still has Labour ahead 34-33. Peter Kellner has confirmed to his mind the Tories are slightly ahead.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    Does admiration for someone imply approval of all or indeed any of their acts ?

    I've never suggested it does.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/31/farage-i-admire-putin

    Kippers seem very touchy about this interview.
    I think they are getting touchy about your (and others) disingenuous reporting and charactering of Farage's views.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    JohnO said:

    Cliched as it is, the Conservatives must be a broad church and those with trenchant views on immigration, defence and the EU are hardly inimical to such a coalition. It's the balance that matters and in my view UKIP, and particularly its leadership, are simply too distant from the Tory mainstream.

    Which is odd if you think about it, since at least half of UKIP is made from people who less than five years ago *were* the Tory mainstream, and a lot of them were activists as well. Seems to be rather less retirees going around pushing pamphlets through the door these days for some reason.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    Does admiration for someone imply approval of all or indeed any of their acts ?

    I've never suggested it does.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/31/farage-i-admire-putin

    Kippers seem very touchy about this interview.
    I think they are getting touchy about your (and others) disingenuous reporting and charactering of Farage's views.
    Take your argument up with GQ and The Guardian.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    Does admiration for someone imply approval of all or indeed any of their acts ?

    I've never suggested it does.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/31/farage-i-admire-putin

    Kippers seem very touchy about this interview.
    I think they are getting touchy about your (and others) disingenuous reporting and charactering of Farage's views.
    Take your argument up with GQ and The Guardian.
    Conservative's it seems only believe The Guardian when its rubbishing UKIP, funny that ;)

  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    JohnO said:

    Sure. If I were a former Con but now inclined to UKIP, I'd be mighty alarmed about that party's stance on defence spending compounded by Farage's apparent fondness for Vladamir Putin, which, to his credit, was deplored by Socrates..

    I don't accept that Mr Farage is fond of Mr Putin.

    The only UKIP defence statement I'm aware of is:

    "Honouring the Military Covenant

    – We will resource fully our military assets and personnel.

    – UKIP will guarantee those who have served in the Armed Forces for a minimum of 12 years a job in the police force, prison service or border force

    – UKIP will change the points system for social housing to give priority to ex-service men and women and those returning from active service.

    – A Veterans Department will bring together all veterans services to ensure servicemen and women get the after-service care they deserve.

    – Veterans are to receive a Veterans’ Service Card to ensure they are fast tracked for mental health care and services, if needed.

    – All entitlements will be extended to servicemen recruited from overseas.

    – UKIP supports a National Service Medal for all those who have served in the armed forces."

    http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people


    Putin is the world leader that Farage most admires.
    Does admiration for someone imply approval of all or indeed any of their acts ?

    I've never suggested it does.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/31/farage-i-admire-putin

    Kippers seem very touchy about this interview.
    I think they are getting touchy about your (and others) disingenuous reporting and charactering of Farage's views.
    Indeed lets look at what Farage actually said.

    Farage was questioned for GQ by Labour's former director of communications Alistair Campbell, in his first interview in his new role as the glossy monthly's "arch-interrogator".

    Asked which current world leader he most admired, Farage replied: "As an operator, but not as a human being, I would say Putin.

    "The way he played the whole Syria thing. Brilliant. Not that I approve of him politically. How many journalists in jail now?"


    That is hardly the wholehearted backing that many on here would seem to want to associate with Farage's comments.

    So there it is Farage thinks Putin is an accomplished political operator.

    Well Putin certainly made a muppet of Cameron over Syria didn't he and he's not doing a bad job of making the EU and NATO look like muppets in the Ukraine either.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,105

    stodge said:

    Just as the Conservatives ruled out a deal with the Liberal Democrats until the afternoon after the election when David "no deals" Cameron suddenly wanted to do a deal.

    I don't think they ever ruled out any deals, did they? They used the standard 'we are working for a majority' line, if memory serves me correctly.
    That is of course what Labour are saying now but what candidates say "on the doorstep" - well, that can be something else, can't it ?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    There is nothing to prevent OGH deciding to vote Labour in Bedford and trusting that in return one of his Labour chums in Twickenham will vote LibDem. It is called tactical voting. If neither casts more than one vote, they do nothing wrong.

    At a previous election Billy Bragg tried to operate similar arrangements on a formal basis to try and "keep the Tories out". The problem for Labour now is that people obsessed with trying to "keep the Tories out" now have 3 or 4 options without voting either Labour or LibDem.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Can't say I am aware of any journalists imprisoned in Russia. Some who investigate organised crime, like Paul Klebnikov who was likely killed on the orders of Boris Berezovsky, do end up being murdered.
  • Indigo said:

    JohnO said:

    Cliched as it is, the Conservatives must be a broad church and those with trenchant views on immigration, defence and the EU are hardly inimical to such a coalition. It's the balance that matters and in my view UKIP, and particularly its leadership, are simply too distant from the Tory mainstream.

    Which is odd if you think about it, since at least half of UKIP is made from people who less than five years ago *were* the Tory mainstream, and a lot of them were activists as well. Seems to be rather less retirees going around pushing pamphlets through the door these days for some reason.
    The simple reality is the 'Tory mainstream' as is now is not really conservative anymore having moved a great distance towards the centralist statist left and in Thatcher's day for example would have been considered more akin to Social Democracy or in today's parlance urban liberal. Therefore those with conservative views are slowly losing faith with the party and drifting away.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,754

    malcolmg said:

    I doubt Westminster will give up powers willingly , it will only be for personal interest and kicking and screaming at that.

    Westminster ALREADY has given up devolved powers.
    Retained powers are not giving away anything, they control everything and can change it any time they wish
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Casino Royal, I am not a member of any political party though I have been a life long Tory voter. Had Gordon Brown not intervened (and in the long term done more harm than good as is always the case) the YES vote would have won in September. In May we may very well see the SNP move to complete the job. I don't give the UK more than another 5-10 years as a single political entity.

    Interesting that the BBC Daily Politics still has Labour ahead 34-33. Peter Kellner has confirmed to his mind the Tories are slightly ahead.

    SNP mythology: nearly every poll for about 2 years prior to the referendum had the No's in front. Brown's intervention, like anything else which ran/runs contrary to the SNP propaganda story can be blamed for keeping Scotland under the Westminster yoke.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Hugh Grant and 30 other "Celebs" suing Trinity Mirror Group for hacking..yer gorra larf..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,754

    Ironically the SNP candidate was until recently a Tory candidate in Glasgow.

    If 1999 is recent.
    The age of most Tories they do have trouble deciding
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,754
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    for those wanting to follow ptp's tip;

    For the next 15 mins, William Hill are offering 6/1 on Jezki in the 3.20.

    Take it each way.

    Edit - and BFSB are still going 5/2 on Un de Sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths. Decent odds imo.

    Ladbrokes currently 8/1 on Jezki.

    Maybe he's got a gammy leg or something?
    Eh, I had it at 4-1 the other day
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,548
    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Mr. Urquhart, quite despicable, that was mentioned yesterday.

    Glad to see Hammond having a go at apologists for murderers today.

    A speech is a start. It's not sufficient. There needs to be action. I have suggested a range of actions which could be taken. Is it too much to expect someone in government to come up with some ideas, some practical steps and some timings?

    A very close look at the charitable status of the IHRC, for instance, is needed. Given that sharia law has been deemed by the ECHR to be incompatible with the European Convention I find it hard to see how it can properly be described as a charity.

    It will be interesting to see the Labour reaction. I do worry that they lack the willingness to take the tough decisions needed to really challenge the ideology of extremism and terrorism, even if they are clear on being against it.
    Once someone takes a line on something it is v rare to see a complete and honest admission that they were wrong. Labour have promoted the multiculturalism that fostered the division between factions of society and resulted in British jihad. I agree with you that try are wrong, but an honest admission is too much to ask, it's v rare in human nature to do that
    Well, I am a Catholic - and what with confession and all that - I do rather think it a good thing for people to reflect on what they have done and admit when they are wrong. And I admire people who do that. It speaks really well of them because it takes maturity and self-knowledge and courage to admit a mistake. And we could do with more of those qualities in public and professional life.

    Or to take the secularist, Keynesian view: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"

    This weekend's Sunday Times reported Trevor Phillips as saying that he had completely changed his mind on the whole issue of not saying bad things about groups of people in case they felt offended. I don't have the link but if anyone has access beyond the paywall it's worth reading what he had to say.

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2015
    .
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    There is nothing to prevent OGH deciding to vote Labour in Bedford and trusting that in return one of his Labour chums in Twickenham will vote LibDem. It is called tactical voting. If neither casts more than one vote, they do nothing wrong.

    At a previous election Billy Bragg tried to operate similar arrangements on a formal basis to try and "keep the Tories out". The problem for Labour now is that people obsessed with trying to "keep the Tories out" now have 3 or 4 options without voting either Labour or LibDem.

    I have an instinct that a contract (i.e. legally binding agreement) to vote a particular way would be invalid (what with the secret ballot and all), but I cannot for the moment recall under what authority.
This discussion has been closed.