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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t take
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t taken a hit over the debates saga
Those who were concluding that Dave and the blue team would not be damaged by the debates issue now have an answer. With both Ashcroft and latest showing 4% leads the strong Tory start to March continues.
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Make no mistake, Labour are heading for a hiding in May...
https://sportsiteexweb.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoChartAction.do?marketId=101416473&selectionId=1111885
Figures released by 39 forces under the Freedom of Information Act show 396 sex offenders are currently wanted because their whereabouts are unknown.
Among those recorded were offenders who have been missing for more than a decade.
A Scotland Yard spokeswoman said London's "diverse multicultural population" meant a large percentage of sex offenders were "either known or believed to be living abroad, having returned to their country of origin".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31804999
And just why don't we register people leaving the country as well as entering...anybody?
They've now fallen into Osborne's huge elephant trap of spending cuts. Osborne will say tax cuts and spending and borrowing reductions in the budget that will impact nealy everyone on tax and nearly nobody it will appear on spending.
Contrast that to Labour higher taxes, more spending, more borrowing for no benefit other than Ed Miliband in Number 10.
Why take the risk voter and you're guaranteed to pay more with Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11460214/Defiant-Greece-at-daggers-drawn-with-EU-creditors.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2987252/The-despot-bought-Blair-16million-Cherie-320k-s-deal-shames-Britain-ex-PM-sold-virtual-gangster-linked-torture-money-laundering-bribery-murder.html
A bit of tough negotiation and willingness to walk away from a deal that is not wanted. It leaves the rest looking a bit spineless.
From Ashcroft yesterday:
The groups had noticed the latest frenzy over TV debates, but remained unmoved. In previous rounds people have said they would watch the debates if they happened, but those most apt to criticise David Cameron for his reluctance to take part were those already least inclined to vote for him. This week again we found nothing to suggest Cameron would be seriously damaged if the debates did not go ahead and he was blamed: “he should spend his time running the country rather than standing on stage”. Indeed since the leaders only seem to “act like children” when they get together, the event would probably not be very enlightening anyway.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/09/confidence-fundamentally-insecure-cameron-or-milib/
150 minutes 150 seconds
In other news the BBC 'has learned' that the Pope is a Catholic.
Ed Milliband must be afraid to look too closely, but who can argue with such methodology?
The theory centres on Lord Ashcroft, a former Tory treasurer and billionaire who bankrolled the party’s attack in marginal constituencies against Labour in 2010 but is now apparently performing a public service by commissioning a series of UK-wide and constituency polls.
Many in Labour, particularly Scottish Labour, do not believe the man they wanted ejected as a peer is doing this simply out of the goodness of his own heart or even a fascination in politics. Instead they believe he is “trying to create a pro-Tory narrative”.....
The easiest way to help kill the narrative off is for Labour to rule out a deal with the SNP, put a stop to Cameron’s campaign in England and make Scottish Labour look relevant again. The Scottish Labour MPs who begged Ed Miliband to do just that know that to be true, as does shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, defending a marginal English seat.
The next conspiracy theory might be on why Mr Miliband didn’t rule out an SNP deal if he vacillates much more.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/david-maddox-scottish-labour-conspiracy-theory-1-3713938
Most Miliband coverage this morning is on the tory poster.....
Firstly, those who consistently claim that Cameron is "not very good" at politics are wrong. The critique was that he would not be able to reposition the Tories and pick up as many votes I the centre as he was losing to his right. He has and he is.
Secondly, Ed has almost completely failed to marshal the anti-government vote. After nearly 5 years of hysteria about austerity (which in reality has been a far more modest adjustment than most countries have endured) the protest vote is going all over the place but not to Labour. It has obviously gone to UKIP but also to the SNP, the Greens and NOTA. Labour must now be in serious danger of polling no better than they did in 2010.
Thirdly, the potential upside for the Tories is greater than it is for Labour. If Labour were not able to ingather the disaffected in the dog days of government how are they going to do so now? It has to be accepted that many of UKIP are not coming home but some will, especially in Con/Lab marginals where they have to choose the lesser of two evils.
Labour still has significant advantages. They have the boundary advantage. They have a significant wedge of safe seats (although thanks to Scotland about 45 fewer than they had in 2010). They have the opportunity of the red Liberals in seats where the collapse in Lib Dem support should swing things their way. The distribution of their votes will continue to favour them. But they have completely failed to provide a credible alternative vision of how they would run the country. And it is getting late. Very late.
2 hours 2 minutes 2 seconds
Notwithstanding that, the BBC is full of lefties , as you say the Pope is a catholic.
Agree as well that any further polling shifts are not going to favour Labour. UKIP will come home to the Tories to some extent, not just in Con-Lab marginals, but I am seeing it in Con-LibDem fights too. The notion that the LibDems might switch over and prop up an Ed Miliband government is a great recruiting sergeant to the blue flag.
I think that Labour's election of Ed Milliband as leader is really hitting home now, very late in the day. If Labour were actually to suffer a net loss of seats, (which can't be ruled out, now), it would be their worst result since 1987.
Still, we need more polls. It's too early to say that the Conservatives are in the lead, but we can say for certain that Labour have lost theirs.
The votes for an EU referendum are also there given UKIP+DUP would support it. No concessions to the LDs would be needed.
The Conservatives would be able to implement almost all of their manifesto. 310+ seats really is the sweet spot for them.
1) Scotland votes shares around SNP 39%; LAB 33%
2) LibDem Incumbents only suffer bleed of around a third as much in seats they hold as seats they don't.
3) In CON/LAB marginals (defined as majority under 4,000), CON and LAB bleed to UKIP is around a quarter of what it is in non-marginal seats.
4) UKIP pick up 3 seats which were safe CON in 2010 (even though the straight maths suggests they should not)
I end up with:
Populus CON 253; LAB 295; LD 29; SNP 36; PC 5; GRN 1; UKIP 3
YouGov CON 321; LAB 239; LD 27; SNP 36; PC 5; GRN 1; UKIP 3
Ashcroft CON 329; LAB 236; LD 22; SNP 36; PC 5; GRN 1; UKIP 3
I have amended my model to allow input of national vote shares while retaining the opportunity to fiddle with each of the moves from one individual Party to another etc. I am going to tidy it up a bit and then post a link in case anyone has interest in it.
The real risk is whether it is going to break the internet again. Kim Kardashian just cannot compete.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Purnell
Firstly, those who consistently claim that Cameron is "not very good" at politics are wrong. The critique was that he would not be able to reposition the Tories and pick up as many votes I the centre as he was losing to his right. He has and he is.
That's simply to misunderstand the critique.
Cameron has picked up centre votes and could have kept his traditional supporters on board,
Stand back from the euphoria of a few polls and he's on track to fail to win a majority against Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband, two of the weakest Labour candidates in living memory.
Cameron could have been looking at a majority if he had been more adept at managing a wider coalition.
Thing is: I'm not sure it was a dream.
As a Scot I think I get a slightly distorted view but I cannot think of any of my Labour friends who have a good word to say about Ed. His polling is, for now, better in England (which is incredible enough when you think about it) but even the English catch on eventually (if not about cricket selections).
I certainly agree it is not a done deal. A misstep in the budget, for example, could still send this election Labour's way. But Labour desperately need a game changer. Hence the hysteria about the debates.
On the other had for some bizarre reason a few of the Cameroons voiced the opinion that they would prefer a coalition because it let them do all the wet liberal things they wanted to do without having to pay attention to the other half of the party.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/torcuil-crichton-labour-caught-pincer-5299474
Lab 39% (+3% on 2010), Con 25% (-1%) , UKIP 14% (+ 12%) Plaid 10% (-1%) Green 6% (+4%) Lib Dem 5% (-15%).
My main thought was on whether UNS has broken down elsewhere other than Scotland. It may well be the case that we see very different swings in different regions of the country.
Would it be possible to incorporate regional swings into the model?
Labour now look like they are in the relegation zone. They need others to lose matches for them to stay up.
If that has actually affected the voting intention then it seems to be in the Tories favour or at least it seems not to had any lasting affect. There is a possibility this has not seeped through yet to the public perceptions but it has been at least a few weeks now and polling surely would have picked this up.
That alone is I feel is very significant
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6362264/Labour-plotting-German-style-alliance-with-the-SNP.html
I suspect Ms Sturgeon will have mixed emotions about her depiction too.....
But the idea that he could have achieved that repositioning without gay marriage, without completely ignoring the fox hunting issue for the entire Parliament, without giving a higher priority to protecting the health budget than the defence budget and without avoiding a fight with the consensus on global warming is for the birds. I may not like his position on some of these points and I am sure that you do not but there is no question that it has got the Tories an audience with a significant segment of the electorate that Blair had put beyond them.
Gtg now
The trick was to do all of the above and still keep traditional supporters on board. Despite the views of the cameron partisans most of the people he has lost are not euro fanatics nor are they diehards nutters who must get their own way on everything. Most voters understand that a government will not give them everything they want can expect some of the things that are important to them. In romancing the centre Cameron has forgotten his traditional supporters and childishly gone out of his way to make that point. That tone was one of the factors which persuaded me to stop voting for him as gratuitously insulting his voters just made me think he wasn't up to the job.
As a result he's lost a chunk of his natural constituncy. So 5+ years of wooing have left him no better off than where he started and he will still never be PM in his own right.
The point isn't about substance anyway, its largely about presentation. He could have done most or all of those things in a low key way, without making a song and dance about it, and rubbing people's noses in it (Yes, I know Dr Nabavi doesn't see it that way, I believe the pope is a catholic as well, the fact is a lot of right wing Tories did see it that way). He could have tossed them a few bits of consolation blue meat (keeping Gove in place and not worrying about the votes of teacher that largely vote Labour would have been a good start), adopted a slightly less emollient, slightly less supine tone of the EU etc.
There seems to have been a certain obsession with trying to gain the votes of people who would never vote Conservative in a million years (the Guardianista) because they were the sort of people in his social group who he meets at dinner parties, and ignoring whole swathes of natural Conservatives voters (WVM, patriots, armed forces etc) because he didn't understand them, or dine with them.
And just look at Lord Ashcroft's reports on his focus groups to see how badly Miliband comes across.
Poor Labour people should prepare themselves psychologically for another 5 years of powerlessness.
even under the most favourable projection he's not on track to improve his number of seats.
It only counts double if he;s building on constituency totals and since he's lost votes elsewhere it's a zero sum game.
If you have that weight, then an opposing good or bad news story does little; it's like there is inertia in the system; but once the move starts, it is relatively easy to continue and/or speed it up until you reach the maximum potential base of your vote.
If this is the case, then one slow bad news story will not particularly harm the Conservatives - they have the inertia at the moment. Likewise, one good news story will not particularly help Labour - the inertia is against them.
Therefore what Labour need are a series of good news stories between now and the election, or the Conservatives to suffer a series of bad news stories - e.g. another defection combined with a poorly-received budget and Cameron being accused of molesting Mr Dancer's enormo-haddock in a secret Soho club that was also attended by the ghosts of Gadaffi and Linda Lovelace.
I can't see Miliband or his team being able to deliver the first, which is why they've immediately gone so heavily negative, and the second is largely out of their hands.
It also means that those who read the entrails of every poll, and ascribe significant changes in the polls to individual measures, are doing little more than observing coincidences - the real cause of the change is cumulative and very hard to discern.
I think I've used a materials-science parallel in the past - plastic versus elastic bending.
Labour will surely choose a better leader in the next Parliament, and UKIP will be riding high, having received the backing of 4-5m voters.
Lab 39% (+2), Con 25% (+2) , UKIP 14% (-2) Plaid 10% (=) Green 6% (-2) Lib Dem 5% (-1).
A 2% swing from Con-Lab is equivalent to a 3% Con lead nationally on UNS.
More evidence of a drift back to the mainstream.
Do you think that's a turnip she's swinging on?
According to Lord Ascroft's recent presentation perceptions of the Conservatives have got worse since 2010.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/MAA-4-March-presentation-for-website.pdf
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/z7017puitf/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-050315.pdf
Was it Nicola Sturgeon?
But Scotland would still be the Achilles heel. English people do not want to be ruled by Scots any more than Scots want to be ruled by England.
If the SNP kept to a policy of only voting on truly national matters such as Defence and promised SF like abstaining on other issues, and did it plausibly, then the Tory poster of Ed in Alex's pocket would be disarmed.
There is also the chance they swing violently left in a wild (and doomed) attempt to take on the SNP
They don't do it now. They would have no reason to do it while holding Ed's reins
CHELTENHAM !!!!!!
Mr. Bear, social media might be more noise than insight. People often form self-contained social circles with others who mirror their own views.
Mr. F, those Welsh figures are interesting. Tiny changes for the big two parties, heftier ones for the smaller parties.
A lot can still happen before May, but we've had a steady drip, drip, drip of reasonably good economic news and they are facing an incoherent opposition. "The Tories will lay waste to the country like they've been doing for five years but we only do nice cuts."
As for the debates ... politician does something for political advantage. I'm shocked, I tell ee, shocked.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/31808243
Sounds like he may be replaced later in the season.
If Salmond wants devo-max (and that was he seemed to be arguing for in the indy ref with currency union etc) then to do it unilaterally is the way to get the rest of Westminster to agree.
Frankly, it's laughable to say that had Cameron not passed gay marriage into law or held a free vote on fox hunting that the voters would now be abstaining or turning to Ed Miliband. No one cares that much except those who would never vote Tory anyway. You have more of a point with the NHS but even there the voters distrust the Tories but are still voting for them.
Antifrank put it best IMHO. It's not policy. The Cameron government has in some areas (and I emphasise 'some') managed to look centrist whilst pursuing some pretty radical reforms in education, welfare, and to a lesser extent health.
Which makes Sauber's argument in court against Giedo van der Garde seem even more odd, and which might have serious implications: if Sauber wins, does that mean that it's been seen in court that it's dangerous for drivers to drive a car they haven't tested? Will Mehri be allowed to drive?
I like Sauber, but they're bang out of order on this.
The genie was let out the bottle with the creation of the Holyrood parliament, England too needs a parliament - or scrap Holyrood. Since the latter would lead to howls of anguish and would be politically impossible... an English parliament is probably needed.
Scrap the Lords or there will simply be too many parliamentarians though.
Since then, the averaged party shares have changed as follows...
Labour have fallen 9.1 points from 42.4 to 33.3
Tories have gained 2.3 points from 31.7 to 34
LibDem have fallen 1.5 points from 8.9 to 7.4
UKIP have gained 6.1 points from 8.3 to 14.4
I don't have full data for the Greens, but they have essentially come from nowhere to 6 points.
On the face of this, it does appear to be the case that Labour are losing the battle for support, as opposed to the Tories winning it.
Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .
Tory government = strong case for independence. The trick is to make it look like it isn't their fault.