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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One thing we can now start to say – the Tories haven’t take

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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Mr. Eagles, you expect Miliband to launch the most successful ambush in political history on the Conservatives? To win a stunning victory when all the odds are against him? To defeat several Conservative leaders?

    On the debates: that's possible, but the reverse could happen. Sniping, squabbling leaders bickering away *could* make Cameron look good simply for not having bothered with it.

    Mr. Putney, those spreads are pretty near my predictions in the guessing game.

    Mr. Jessop, not sure of the precise Sauber situation (I had heard their line of argument). Van Der Garde waiting until after testing before complaining is a bit peculiar.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,721
    edited March 2015
    Indigo said:


    Indeed. However as per the Daily Record item linked earlier, the SNP want a weak Tory government, so they are probably not remotely fussed about the poster.

    I'm not 100% sure what the SNP want but that line in the Daily Record is being pushed so that the Scots "come home" to Labour.
  • So Dave's a Puritan (from Rachel Sylvester's column in today's Times)

    There is a ruthless adherence to the message — “We are a New Model Army, we need Cromwellian discipline,” says a close ally of the prime minister.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    Meanwhile...

    CHELTENHAM !!!!!!

    LibDem HOLD

  • Mr. Eagles, you expect Miliband to launch the most successful ambush in political history on the Conservatives? To win a stunning victory when all the odds are against him? To defeat several Conservative leaders?

    On the debates: that's possible, but the reverse could happen. Sniping, squabbling leaders bickering away *could* make Cameron look good simply for not having bothered with it.

    Mr. Putney, those spreads are pretty near my predictions in the guessing game.

    Mr. Jessop, not sure of the precise Sauber situation (I had heard their line of argument). Van Der Garde waiting until after testing before complaining is a bit peculiar.

    I've said phone hacking was Ed Miliband's Cannae and that 2015 would be his Zama.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.

    Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP
    .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!

    I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Mr. Eagles, you signally fail to appreciate the scale of the triumph at Cannae.

    I pity your school teachers.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Mr. Easterross, appalling use of '4', 'u' and 'ur', though.
  • Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.

    I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
    I think Nick's currently en route to South Korea, so we shouldn't read too much into his silence.
    Fair enough - Nick's usually very prepared to face up to any disappointing news for the Red Team - odd though that he should choose to visit S Korea less than two months before a GE in which he is a candidate. Presumably he's overwhelmingly confident of winning back Broxtowe.
  • Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.

    Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP
    .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!

    I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.

    A dreadful woman. When does she next make some bitchy sexualised remark? One loss I am looking forward to.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015

    Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .

    Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.

    Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.

    The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So Dave's a Puritan (from Rachel Sylvester's column in today's Times)

    The column positing that the debates are Cameron's bacon sandwich moment.

    Err, no...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looks like the only issue is whether the Tories get an overall majority or not. I reckon the odds are against, but Ed's total uselessness may deliver one. At least he will be gone in just a few weeks now.

    For Ed, the question is, will he win more seats than Kinnock did in 1987?
    Or a vote share better than Michael Foot?

    Foot is several time the politician Miliband is as well, he might have what we could charitably call presentation issues, and he might have been rather to the left of this country at the time he was in with a chance, and he was facing Thatcher, not Cameron, but he had a towering intellect and a powerful oratory.... EdM has neither.

    It is probably too late for it now (as it would require ditching Balls) but one option for a fightback would be a manifesto red in tooth and claw. Full Syrizia style loss of grip on reality could really fire up the troops.

    But Scotland would still be the Achilles heel. English people do not want to be ruled by Scots any more than Scots want to be ruled by England.

    If the SNP kept to a policy of only voting on truly national matters such as Defence and promised SF like abstaining on other issues, and did it plausibly, then the Tory poster of Ed in Alex's pocket would be disarmed.

    Time the English ( ie Westminster ) stopped doing it then
    The route to devomax could be via SNP belligerence at Westminster, wrecking everything possible. Alternatively it could be by unilateralism.

    I suspect that the former would strengthen the Tories and would also poison relationships to the point that either devomax or independence would be needlesly acrimonious. We are always going to be neighbours on this island!

    I would suggest that SNP unilateralism would lead pretty quickly to an amicable devomax settlement that would be on much stronger foundations.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Labour will surely choose a better leader in the next Parliament

    That depends if they have changed the rules sufficiently to prevent Len doing it again.

    There is also the chance they swing violently left in a wild (and doomed) attempt to take on the SNP
    We talked about Cameron's replacement. If we assume a CON minority or if they are lucky small majority government, who replaces Ed ?

    Do they move to the centre and pick Chuka Umunna, cant see UNITE going for that, and the voters would hate him anyway even if the blairite end of the activists might approve.

    Or do they do for the full SYRIZA nutjob approach, keep the paymaster's happy, put the Member for Hornchurch in the driving seat maybe.

    If they want to return to proper electability pick a moderate with some life experience. Dan Jarvis ?
  • My Cheltenham tips today (Aka this evening's glue)

    13:30 - Sizing John

    14:05 - Sgt Reckless

    14:40 - Ned Stark

    15:20 - Kitten Rock

    16:00 - Swing Bowler

    16:40 - Top Totti and Perfect Candidate

    17:15 - Knock House
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Countdown Projection :

    25 minutes 25 seconds
  • Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.

    I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
    I think Nick's currently en route to South Korea, so we shouldn't read too much into his silence.
    Fair enough - Nick's usually very prepared to face up to any disappointing news for the Red Team - odd though that he should choose to visit S Korea less than two months before a GE in which he is a candidate. Presumably he's overwhelmingly confident of winning back Broxtowe.
    It's for his day job.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Mr. Chestnut, they'd find it hard to drop out now, after the stance they've taken.

    I think the more uncertain question is whether ITV will go for an earlier debate.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Mr. Indigo, Umunna's worse than Miliband. Just as wonkish, but with the greasy slime of Blair.

    Yvette Cooper or Jarvis would probably be who I'd vote for, if I had a vote. Cooper's voice must be an octave or two lower than it was in 2010.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    Seemingly some good news for the yellow peril .... but the sample size is only 403 so a significant degree of caution is warranted.

  • Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.

    Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP
    .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!

    I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.

    I wouldn't be too confident as yet of Anna Soubry holding onto Broxtowe for the Blues.
    Quite apart from her little local difficulty in the HoC last week, the best bookies' odds show Nick Palmer as the hot 2/5 favourite to regain this seat, with La Soubry out at 9/4. By any normal standards these odds suggest she's pretty much a no-hoper.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    O/T

    For those with European holidays on the near horizon, the GBP is just under Euro 1.40 this morning. With all the Greek problems, where it will go next is anyone's guess.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    MD Cooper...HIPS.. a disaster that will come back and bite her..lots a people lost a great deal of money with that dose of stupidity.
  • Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.

    I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
    I think Nick's currently en route to South Korea, so we shouldn't read too much into his silence.
    Fair enough - Nick's usually very prepared to face up to any disappointing news for the Red Team - odd though that he should choose to visit S Korea less than two months before a GE in which he is a candidate. Presumably he's overwhelmingly confident of winning back Broxtowe.
    It's for his day job.
    Ah, that's alright then!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,133

    Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.

    Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP
    .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!

    I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.

    A dreadful woman. When does she next make some bitchy sexualised remark? One loss I am looking forward to.
    Not as dreadful as Nick Palmer, though. I don't think he'll lose, but I certainly will not celebrate his win. Broxtowe and parliament deserves better.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    @ David L.

    Great post. I'm surprised too at the Tory leads. At the beginning of parliament I thought this would be a one-term govt only. Times were very tough, I thought they'd become unpopular very quickly and the coalition with the Lib Dems would give all the protest voters back to Labour. Then Labour picked Ed Miliband as leader, and that gave the Tories hope. Ed has singularly failed to create any enthusiasm for his party.

    Miliband's big fear now must be the GE approaching with Labour having no chance of governing alone. If that scenario looks nailed-on then voters in Scotland will almost certainly be drawn to the SNP. One, as a F.U. to the Tories and two, because the SNP will be telling their supporters they have a great chance of holding the balance of power.

    I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.

    All eyes now on the Budget I suppose. George Osborne has proved he can win and fail at these big set-pieces.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Mr. Dodd, oh, aye, HIPS was bloody ridiculous. Not enough to derail a leadership bid, though.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,475

    malcolmg said:

    Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    Looks like the only issue is whether the Tories get an overall majority or not. I reckon the odds are against, but Ed's total uselessness may deliver one. At least he will be gone in just a few weeks now.

    For Ed, the question is, will he win more seats than Kinnock did in 1987?
    Or a vote share better than Michael Foot?

    Foot is several time the politician Miliband is as well, he might have what we could charitably call presentation issues, and he might have been rather to the left of this country at the time he was in with a chance, and he was facing Thatcher, not Cameron, but he had a towering intellect and a powerful oratory.... EdM has neither.

    It is probably too late for it now (as it would require ditching Balls) but one option for a fightback would be a manifesto red in tooth and claw. Full Syrizia style loss of grip on reality could really fire up the troops.

    But Scotland would still be the Achilles heel. English people do not want to be ruled by Scots any more than Scots want to be ruled by England.

    If the SNP kept to a policy of only voting on truly national matters such as Defence and promised SF like abstaining on other issues, and did it plausibly, then the Tory poster of Ed in Alex's pocket would be disarmed.

    Time the English ( ie Westminster ) stopped doing it then
    The route to devomax could be via SNP belligerence at Westminster, wrecking everything possible. Alternatively it could be by unilateralism.

    I suspect that the former would strengthen the Tories and would also poison relationships to the point that either devomax or independence would be needlesly acrimonious. We are always going to be neighbours on this island!

    I would suggest that SNP unilateralism would lead pretty quickly to an amicable devomax settlement that would be on much stronger foundations.
    I doubt Westminster will give up powers willingly , it will only be for personal interest and kicking and screaming at that.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    chestnut said:

    Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .

    Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.

    Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.

    The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
    I am not sure Farage will regret it, a bunch of lefties yapping around his heels accusing him of things that will actually appeal to a lot of his base while he blithely continues to trot out sound bites about Cameron's failures on immigration and Ed's open door immigration policy for the camera.

    Ed cant back out given all the fuss he has made about "any time, any place, any where", and all the minor parties are gagging for the free publicity regardless of who turns up.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,717
    Mr. G, to a large extent, I agree. The desire for Westminster to remain as is would explain why so many political clowns there are reluctant to contemplate the essential creation of an English Parliament.

    However, if they refuse outright to devolve more powers to Scotland, that would provoke a second vote, sooner or later.

  • Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    What I continue to find astonishing is that the Tories have such a lead and are within a couple of percent of their 2010 support with UKIP still on 15%. To me this demonstrates at least 3 things.

    Firstly, those who consistently claim that Cameron is "not very good" at politics are wrong. The critique was that he would not be able to reposition the Tories and pick up as many votes I the centre as he was losing to his right. He has and he is.

    Secondly, Ed has almost completely failed to marshal the anti-government vote. After nearly ........

    Thirdly, the potential upside for the Tories is greater than it is for Labour. If Labour were not ................

    Labour still has significant advantages. They have the boundary advantage. They have a significant wedge of safe seats (although thanks to Scotland about 45 fewer than they had in 2010). They have the opportunity of the red Liberals in seats where the collapse in Lib Dem support should swing things their way. The distribution

    The combined vote share for the Conservatives and UKIP is running at c. 49% now, well above where I expected it to be.

    I think that Labour's election of Ed Milliband as leader is really hitting home now, very late in the day. If Labour were actually to suffer a net loss of seats, (which can't be ruled out, now), it would be their worst result since 1987.

    Still, we need more polls. It's too early to say that the Conservatives are in the lead, but we can say for certain that Labour have lost theirs.

    I had a nightmare last night that Ed Miliband handed back the Falklands to Argentina, divested the UK of all its overseas territories, cashiered the Royal Navy, signed us up to an EU army, increased immigration drastically to the point where there was "camping out" of migrants on my village green, and bankrupted the country. I had to sell my house, and I was in the process of emigrating to Canada when I woke up.

    Thing is: I'm not sure it was a dream.
    http://www.psywww.com/books/interp/toc.htm
    Thanks. My waking mind has interpreted it as.. perhaps I should go and help in Southampton Itchen.
    Royston is a real hero. Problem is he is too modest to use it in the literature so they are likely to get the fragrant carpet bagger.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    MD ..It was her passionate defence of it that shows she would pursue a bad idea forever..even tho most of her party thought she was bonkers.
    What happened to all those suckers who paid to become examiners..
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    edited March 2015

    Morning all and good to see Anna Soubry kicking NPXMP's ass on Twitter.

    Anna Soubry MP @Anna_SoubryMP
    .@Nick4Broxtowe u served in Blairs Govt til 08 voted 4 invasion of Iraq (I was against) when not #sittingonthefence ur flip flopping!

    I wonder if she can get her majority up to 2500 this time? Broxtowe is remaining blue for all Nick's bluster.

    I wouldn't be too confident as yet of Anna Soubry holding onto Broxtowe for the Blues.
    Quite apart from her little local difficulty in the HoC last week, the best bookies' odds show Nick Palmer as the hot 2/5 favourite to regain this seat, with La Soubry out at 9/4. By any normal standards these odds suggest she's pretty much a no-hoper.
    Yeah those 30% chances never come in do they? A real outsider

    She's about the same price to win Broxtowe as Ronaldo is to score first in the Real Madrid match tonight...
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Mr. Indigo, Umunna's worse than Miliband. Just as wonkish, but with the greasy slime of Blair.

    Yvette Cooper or Jarvis would probably be who I'd vote for, if I had a vote. Cooper's voice must be an octave or two lower than it was in 2010.

    Jarvis at least has experience outside parliament, command experience, proven courage and and academic background in international affairs, security and conflict resolution. Be nice to see someone non-wonkish and experienced in life at the top of politics.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382

    Lefties on here seem to have thrown in the towel already .A party with no fire in its belly does not deserve to rule the country.

    I feel sure that Nick Palmer still expects Labour to win, although he too has been conspicuously silent since last night's polling numbers were released.
    I think Nicky's confidence was a bit of an act, Anna is up for this no doubt and get your money on Nicky suffering the embarrassment of a second defeat. If this election goes the way I expect Labour can't afford a third dud in a row as leader, they need to get the next one right.

    Somebody wrote earlier they can't choose a leader as bad as Ed again, Burnham would be worse, for the good of UK Politics Labour need to avoid that trap.

    Personally I think Cooper or Umunna would do good jobs as Labour leader, both come over well and have enough about them to put together a stronger front line team and put proper distance between leadership and the big unions.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    That is really my first point. Cameron has widened the Tory tent so that it once again gets its fair share of the middle ground. No tory has managed that since Major in 1992.

    Well Clegg gets a lot of credit for that in two ways. Firstly he did a deal with Cameron, a deal that will look mostly reasonable for many people in the centre of British politics. Secondly, by destroying his own electoral coalition, he has encouraged centrist voters to look elsewhere.

    In the Ashcroft Polls about 5% of the entire electorate who voted Lib Dem in 2010 now say they will vote Conservative in 2015. If he hadn't lost about the same number of voters to UKIP then he would be looking at a vote share close to John Major's 42% in 1992.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    They prompt for perceptions of the LD/Labour candidates before the VI question. (Or they only included the LD/Labour candidate details.)

    "I want to put a series of names to you. In each instance can you tell me whether you think favourably or unfavourably of them, or if you have never heard of them?"

    "If the general election was tomorrow, how would you vote in the Hornsey and Wood Green constituency knowing who is standing?"

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/files/2015/03/Hornsey-Wood-Green-Lib-Dem-poll.pdf
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,475
    My Cheltenham horses for today

    13:30 - Douvan
    14:05 - Un De Sceaux
    14:40 - The Druids Nephew
    15:20 - Jezki
    16:00 - Annie Power
    16:40 - Sego Success
    17:15 - Keltus
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,133
    Off-topic:

    The US has just suffered its third serious passenger rail accident in the last few weeks, along with several freight train crashes. A fair few people have been injured in the latest incident, but thankfully there have been no fatalities.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31810792

    Can you imagine the furore in UK politics if either Network Rail, Railtrack or BR had/had had this sort of sequence?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    chestnut said:

    Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .

    Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.

    Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.

    The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
    If farage could write the script it would have them all ganging up to vilify him
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Third Labour PPC declines Blair money:

    http://labourlist.org/2015/03/third-ppc-publicly-declines-blair-donation/

    I do love it when (Labour) politicians put principles ahead of election winning.....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The media talking about itself is about as interesting as Israel vs Palestine in my book - lots of pointless shouting at each other as no side is giving an inch and isn't interested in finding an answer yet as the fuss is more fun.

    It's like the *proximity talks* of Northern Ireland. And Dr No.

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Interesting thought: I'm just wondering if people's perception of Cameron has already been factored in his Flashman attitude as the cowardly cad and his behaviour in the TV debate argument as expected of him?

    More than that, the polling swing to the Tories may not just be in spite of Camerons debate veto but because of it.

    A bit of tough negotiation and willingness to walk away from a deal that is not wanted. It leaves the rest looking a bit spineless.
    Is this really big news in the UK? I'm not there so I don't know. But it seems surprising to me that many people would give two hoots about whether a tv debate went on or not?
    Media loves talking about itself, so the debates has dominated the news over the last week. If it has had any effect at all on the polling it seems to be in favour of the Tories. In the real world there still seems to be a massive lack of interest in the election.



  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 7th March Projection) :

    Con 314 (+4) .. Lab 248 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
    Broxtowe - TCTC
    Warwickshire North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
    Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
    Croydon Central - Con Hold
    Enfield North - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

    Changes From 7 Mar - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold. Warwickshire North moves from Likely Lab Gain to TCTC. Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    edited March 2015
    Plato said:

    Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.

    Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human

    At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    macisback said:

    Personally I think Cooper or Umunna would do good jobs as Labour leader, both come over well and have enough about them to put together a stronger front line team and put proper distance between leadership and the big unions.

    Cooper's father was General Secretary of Prospect Union seems unlikely she is going to be tough on unions and tough on the causes of unions, she also a Scot ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
    Were there any such polls?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 7th March Projection) :

    Con 314 (+4) .. Lab 248 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
    Broxtowe - TCTC
    Warwickshire North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
    Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
    Croydon Central - Con Hold
    Enfield North - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

    Changes From 7 Mar - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold. Warwickshire North moves from Likely Lab Gain to TCTC. Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    By my reckoning, on those figures, you're assuming hardly any Labour pickups from Conservative at all. What? 4-5 Labour gains from Con max?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,839
    Morning all :)

    I rarely agree with Scott P on anything but he is quite correct that Cheltenham is here and far more important than politics. Though I'm a Flat fan and Ascot is my meeting, I can appreciate the joy with which jumps fans approach this week.

    My Day One thoughts as follows:

    1.30: L'AMI SERGE - DOUVAN is no price and good though he is, like so many this week, he will have to prove he can cope with quicker ground and a faster run race which will put pressure on his jumping. He may win but he's no value and I'll go with the Henderson horse.

    2.05: VIBRATO VALTAT - there are fools, damn fools and people who bet odds-on in novice chases. UN DE SCEAUX fell on his chase outing and his jumping will be put to the test here. He's absolutely no value and the more experienced Nicholls runner will do for me.

    2.40: THE DRUID'S NEPHEW - potentially well handicapped and worth an e/w bet if you can get 10s or bigger.

    3.20: THE NEW ONE - was he unlucky last year when hampered early on ? He didn't impress everyone at Haydock but the ground and track will suit. FAUGHEEN could win this easily but 6/4 is very short and I can't have either JEZKI or HURRICANE FLY.

    4.00: ANNIE POWER - she's miles ahead of these on the numbers and while I just question if 2 and a half is really her trip these days, she should have too much for these but she won't carry my money.

    4.40 & 5.15: No idea - the 5.15 looks a tough a race as you'll find.

    Enjoy the day and hope somebody (other than the bookies) makes some money.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 7th March Projection) :

    Con 314 (+4) .. Lab 248 (-2) .. LibDem 30 (-2) .. SNP 32 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 12 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
    Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
    Broxtowe - TCTC
    Warwickshire North - TCTC from Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - Con Hold from Likely Con Hold
    Watford - Likely LibDem Gain
    Croydon Central - Con Hold
    Enfield North - TCTC
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
    Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

    Changes From 7 Mar - Bury North moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold. Warwickshire North moves from Likely Lab Gain to TCTC. Ipswich moves from Likely Con Hold to Con Hold.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
    APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain

    By my reckoning, on those figures, you're assuming hardly any Labour pickups from Conservative at all. What? 4-5 Labour gains from Con max?
    Fewer than ten. :smile:

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Indigo said:

    Mr. Indigo, Umunna's worse than Miliband. Just as wonkish, but with the greasy slime of Blair.

    Yvette Cooper or Jarvis would probably be who I'd vote for, if I had a vote. Cooper's voice must be an octave or two lower than it was in 2010.

    Jarvis at least has experience outside parliament, command experience, proven courage and and academic background in international affairs, security and conflict resolution. Be nice to see someone non-wonkish and experienced in life at the top of politics.

    Jarvis is the only MP I follow on Twitter. It's interesting to see the work he is doing in various constituencies. It's almost as if he is looking to build up base of support. He has looked a likely prospect since he entered Parliament and would be a very difficult politician to build a negative picture of. Even the Tory papers would struggle. He has two big problems: he has not been an MP for too long; and, more importantly, he does not seem to have strong union connections.
  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Not sure about Tory leads with Ashcroft and You Gov maybe if other pollsters reflected this trend we could believe in it.Budget week advanced boost was called for by LC, well done boys.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.

    Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human

    At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong

    Well said. The issue though, in any form of trading, is ruthless objectivity. I do not bet on politics but I do trade FX. Never fall in love with your position is a cast iron rule. One can read OGH's politics like a book - but I expect his bottom line reflects realpolitik rather than mere politics.
  • Not sure about Tory leads with Ashcroft and You Gov maybe if other pollsters reflected this trend we could believe in it.Budget week advanced boost was called for by LC, well done boys.

    ICM and ComRes (p) also have the Tories ahead.
  • Flockers_pbFlockers_pb Posts: 204
    Fenster said:



    I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.


    Fenster, possibly the most intriguing outcome of the general election is a modest Tory lead in votes and seats, falling short of a credible minority government, followed by the SNP effectively daring Labour to stake a claim to form the government with SNP (and potentially other) support. In that scenario there would certainly be a lot of support on the intellectual left (ie Guardian) for an "anti-Tory" government. Depending on the size of the gap to be overcome, Labour could either be eased into No. 10 or left in an impossible position - having to choose between forming a government that would be perceived as undemocratic and instantly unpopular, particularly in England, or playing into an SNP narrative about Labour putting the Union ahead of the interests of Scots, even to the extent of tacitly supporting the Conservatives. The SNP have an incredibly strong hand.

    The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
  • Looking at this YouGov.

    3% of 2010 Tories are voting Labour now, but 8% (yes eight per cent) of 2010 Labour are voting Tory now.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited March 2015
    My bet of the week results from fishing around the smaller betting markets for some semblance of value which resulted in my landing on seat betting for Plaid Cymru.
    Here the fulcrum point for a number of bookies is +/-3.5 seats (i.e. 3 or fewer, or more than 4 seats in normal parlance), compared with the three seats they hold at present.
    The election models http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and http://electionsetc.com/ show them winning one seat and three seats respectively, whilst Sporting Index have them at 3.0 - 3.6 (with some defence as ever protecting the upside). So far as I can see therefore, the consensus view is that Plaid will win three or fewer seats, with only a slimish, say 30% chance of them winning four seats or more ..... at least that's my gut feeling.
    I was pleasantly surprised therefore to discover that those nice folk at Ladbrokes are currently offering even money odds on the party winning fewer than 3.5 seats and surprisingly skinnier odds of 8/11 on them winning more than 3.5 seats, thereby providing the Magic Sign with a very fair 7.9% margin on this market.
    Definitely NOT one to bet the house on, but possibly worth a couple of pints of Old Speckled Hen should you agree with me.
    As ever DYOR.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited March 2015

    Fenster said:



    I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.


    Fenster, possibly the most intriguing outcome of the general election is a modest Tory lead in votes and seats, falling short of a credible minority government, followed by the SNP effectively daring Labour to stake a claim to form the government with SNP (and potentially other) support. In that scenario there would certainly be a lot of support on the intellectual left (ie Guardian) for an "anti-Tory" government. Depending on the size of the gap to be overcome, Labour could either be eased into No. 10 or left in an impossible position - having to choose between forming a government that would be perceived as undemocratic and instantly unpopular, particularly in England, or playing into an SNP narrative about Labour putting the Union ahead of the interests of Scots, even to the extent of tacitly supporting the Conservatives. The SNP have an incredibly strong hand.

    The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
    Cameron would meet parliament regardless if he's ahead. We would then discover just how much substance there was behind the 'rainbow' coalition.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,839
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.

    Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human

    At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
    To my knowledge, OGH has never discouraged anyone from putting up a pro-Conservative thread. David Herdson regularly contributes and he's a staunch Conservative.

    If the two of you stopped whingeing and contributed some articles of your own you might see a different balance on here. OGH doesn't have to be balanced and you don;t have to come on here every day and post hundreds of contributions complaining about ow unbalanced this forum is.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,147

    My bet of the week results from fishing around the smaller betting markets for some semblance of value which resulted in my landing on seat betting for Plaid Cymru.
    Here the fulcrum point for a number of bookies is +/-3.5 seats (i.e. 3 or fewer, or more than 4 seats in normal parlance), compared with the three seats they hold at present.
    The election models http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and http://electionsetc.com/ show them winning one seat and three seats respectively, whilst Sporting Index have them at 3.0 - 3.6 (with some defence as ever protecting the upside). So far as I can see therefore, the consensus view is that Plaid will win three or fewer seats, with only a slimish, say 30% chance of them winning four seats or more ..... at least that's my gut feeling.
    I was pleasantly surprised therefore to discover that those nice folk at Ladbrokes are currently offering even money odds on the party winning fewer than 3.5 seats and surprisingly skinnier odds of 8/11 on them winning more than 3.5 seats, thereby providing the Magic Sign with a very fair 7.9% margin on this market.
    Definitely NOT one to bet the house on, but possibly worth a couple of pints of Old Speckled Hen should you agree with me.
    As ever DYOR.

    It's 3 or fewer and 4 or more, not 'more than 4'
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    PeterC said:

    Fenster said:



    I think Ed is devious enough to try striking up a coalition with the Greens, the SNP and the Lib Dems even if he ends up 5% and 30 seats behind in the vote. The SNP will play on that.


    Fenster, possibly the most intriguing outcome of the general election is a modest Tory lead in votes and seats, falling short of a credible minority government, followed by the SNP effectively daring Labour to stake a claim to form the government with SNP (and potentially other) support. In that scenario there would certainly be a lot of support on the intellectual left (ie Guardian) for an "anti-Tory" government. Depending on the size of the gap to be overcome, Labour could either be eased into No. 10 or left in an impossible position - having to choose between forming a government that would be perceived as undemocratic and instantly unpopular, particularly in England, or playing into an SNP narrative about Labour putting the Union ahead of the interests of Scots, even to the extent of tacitly supporting the Conservatives. The SNP have an incredibly strong hand.

    The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.
    Cameron would meet parliament regardless if he's ahead. We would then discover just how much substance there was behind the 'rainbow' coalition.

    Cameron remains PM until either he decides to quit or he loses the confidence of the house - and no number of Guardian editorials will change that. There is even talk of ministers who lose seats continuing to serve in the short term.....
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    edited March 2015
    stodge said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.

    Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human

    At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
    To my knowledge, OGH has never discouraged anyone from putting up a pro-Conservative thread. David Herdson regularly contributes and he's a staunch Conservative.

    If the two of you stopped whingeing and contributed some articles of your own you might see a different balance on here. OGH doesn't have to be balanced and you don;t have to come on here every day and post hundreds of contributions complaining about ow unbalanced this forum is.

    I'm defending him you idiot

    I have offered several articles, they obviously didn't cut the mustard
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,839
    Morning all :)

    The anti-Labour majority (in terms of posts if not posters) mob in full hue and cry this morning and getting the champagne ready for a Party on May 8th.

    I don't buy a sudden 4% swing from Labour to Conservative over the weekend - I put it down to nothing more than people feeling positive with a nice sunny day on Saturday. We'll see how much of an outlier ICM was on the Tory number in due course and as OGH said ysterday it was turnout filtering which supported the Conservative lead on the Ashcroft numbers.

    We know the Conservative vote is more likely to turn out (or be turned out) but that's not to say as we get nearer the battle, the Labour and other votes won't be motivated to come out as well.

    The next big event is the Budget next week and I expect it to be as political as Osborne can get way with.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Yougov Sample : 1745
    Labour 2010 Vote:427
    Labour 2015 Vote:418
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015

    The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.

    Its going to get very messy if the nett effect is 35ish seats have moved from the LDs to the SNP with LAB and CON seats staying roughly as they are.

    With 304 seats the CONs are going so struggle to form a credible government, if the got into coalition with the LDs (with 22 LDs led by Farron that seems unlikely) and with C&S from the DUP they will get a Majority of 8 and its going to be as unstable as hell.

    258 LAB + 52 SNP plus greens/PC wont be quite enough to cross the line either.
  • isam said:

    My bet of the week results from fishing around the smaller betting markets for some semblance of value which resulted in my landing on seat betting for Plaid Cymru.
    Here the fulcrum point for a number of bookies is +/-3.5 seats (i.e. 3 or fewer, or more than 4 seats in normal parlance), compared with the three seats they hold at present.
    The election models http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ and http://electionsetc.com/ show them winning one seat and three seats respectively, whilst Sporting Index have them at 3.0 - 3.6 (with some defence as ever protecting the upside). So far as I can see therefore, the consensus view is that Plaid will win three or fewer seats, with only a slimish, say 30% chance of them winning four seats or more ..... at least that's my gut feeling.
    I was pleasantly surprised therefore to discover that those nice folk at Ladbrokes are currently offering even money odds on the party winning fewer than 3.5 seats and surprisingly skinnier odds of 8/11 on them winning more than 3.5 seats, thereby providing the Magic Sign with a very fair 7.9% margin on this market.
    Definitely NOT one to bet the house on, but possibly worth a couple of pints of Old Speckled Hen should you agree with me.
    As ever DYOR.

    It's 3 or fewer and 4 or more, not 'more than 4'
    Yes, indeed - quite correct. Sorry for any confusion.
  • Millsy said:

    The Tory position relative to Labour has been improving steadily for months. Anyone who cares to look at the numbers can see this.

    And just look at Lord Ashcroft's reports on his focus groups to see how badly Miliband comes across.

    Poor Labour people should prepare themselves psychologically for another 5 years of powerlessness.

    More than 5, I would think. In the next Parliament, we will get to hear all about Labour's institutional protection of paedophiles, for example; its broadcasting arm, the BBC, is likely to get its wings clipped; and we can count on them to continue to call the economy completely wrong.

    Then there is the problem of Blair. Blair increasingly looks like not the net asset he was perceived as when in office, but as just another form of Labour debt with the repayments dumped on hapless future generations. The more we hear of and from him, the worse he looks. You hear Tories wishing they had Maggie back but when did you ever hear a Labouroid wishing they had Tony back?

    The electoral benefit he provided has yet to be repaid. I had dinner with friends of my parents on Saturday, not political people at all. One commented that he would not be particularly surprised if Blair did time one day. Didn't think it was likely, but given all the lying, not in any way out of the question.

    Straws in the wind, but interesting.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    isam said:

    chestnut said:

    Re Cameron taking a hit on the debates, or a lack thereof, I wonder if Cameron/The Tories will take a hit when the debates happen, and he's not there, rather than now when it is all so theoretical .

    Squabble for the silver and bronze medals between the support card.

    Clegg will regret it, because he will take all the flak of government, Farage will regret it because they will all gang up to vilify him and Miliband will regret it because all the non-Tory alternatives are vying for attention.

    The question in my mind is, "who is going to be the first one to follow Cameron's lead and find a justification to drop out?"
    If farage could write the script it would have them all ganging up to vilify him
    Personally I think that the odds against Mr Farage (5 vs 1 ) are unfair.

    It should be at least 10.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    stodge said:

    We'll see how much of an outlier ICM was on the Tory number in due course

    ICM: 36
    YG: 35
    Ashcroft 34
    Opinium 34 (35 on certain to vote)
    Comres 34
    Ipsos 34 (35 on certain to vote)


    Survation 28
    Populus 32
    TNS 28
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:


    Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

    Can't see how Ochil and South Perthshire is an SNP gain on on 32 seats. If Ochil goes then around 45 seats are going to go SNP.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,147
    edited March 2015

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    It has to be based on truth or it doesn't work
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Alistair said:

    JackW said:


    Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain

    Can't see how Ochil and South Perthshire is an SNP gain on on 32 seats. If Ochil goes then around 45 seats are going to go SNP.
    O&SP is unlike many other SNP/Labour targets and the demographics somewhat different from central belt and other urban seats.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    Ofcourse, because a right-wing eurosceptic is bound to be in the pocket of a leftie eurofederalist.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited March 2015
    Indigo said:

    The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.

    Its going to get very messy if the nett effect is 35ish seats have moved from the LDs to the SNP with LAB and CON seats staying roughly as they are.

    With 304 seats the CONs are going so struggle to form a credible government, if the got into coalition with the LDs (with 22 LDs led by Farron that seems unlikely) and with C&S from the DUP they will get a Majority of 8 and its going to be as unstable as hell.

    258 LAB + 52 SNP plus greens/PC wont be quite enough to cross the line either.
    A new LIBDEM leader is not going to emerge on 8th May. Clegg will probably hold his seat IMO; even if he didn't there would be the matter of a party election. The formation of a governement would however be of the essence. I expect Cameron would just say to the Libs "It makes sense to continue the coalition. Take it or leave it". A bit like the debates really!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Almost two-thirds of Scots think immigration should be reduced, a poll commissioned by the BBC has suggested.

    It suggests that Scots are almost as negative about immigration as the population in the rest of Britain.
    The poll found that 49% wanted to see less immigration, exactly the same proportion as across Britain, and 15% said it should be stopped altogether.

    This is in contrast to politicians at Holyrood who tend to agree that Scotland needs more skilled migrants.


    http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-31800374
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Cheltenham - Day 1

    1:30 Qewy
    2:05 Court Minstrel
    2:40 Gallant Oscar
    3:20 Jezki
    4:00 Polly Peachum
    4:40 Very Wood
    5:15 Keltus
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,683
    Indigo said:
    That is quite funny.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,721

    Looking at this YouGov.

    3% of 2010 Tories are voting Labour now, but 8% (yes eight per cent) of 2010 Labour are voting Tory now.

    Shocking internals for Labour in that poll - rare indeed and possibly a sign of actual crossover that they are behind on the unweighted.

    Gov't Approval at -14 is the highest for quite some time too.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Gadfly said:

    To my mind, the current polling trend began following the May 2012 local elections. Click chart to enlarge...

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire

    Since then, the averaged party shares have changed as follows...

    Labour have fallen 9.1 points from 42.4 to 33.3
    Tories have gained 2.3 points from 31.7 to 34
    LibDem have fallen 1.5 points from 8.9 to 7.4
    UKIP have gained 6.1 points from 8.3 to 14.4
    I don't have full data for the Greens, but they have essentially come from nowhere to 6 points.

    On the face of this, it does appear to be the case that Labour are losing the battle for support, as opposed to the Tories winning it.

    Anyone offering a bet that UKIP will take more seats off Labour than the Tories?
    That's complicated by the fact that the Tories currently hold the marginal seats that in normal elections move between the two big parties - such as Cannock Chase, South Thanet, Thurrock, South Basildon and East Thurrock, which were all Conservative gains from Labour in 2010, but are now UKIP targets.

    On a bad night for the Tories, and a good one for UKIP, seats like those would be declared as UKIP gains from the Conservatives, but they are seats that would go Labour in UKIP's absence. So this makes it hard for Labour to lose more seats than the Tories, as most of the Lab/Con marginals at risk are already blue.

    Incidentally, this seems to me quite different from the experience of the Lib Dems, who mainly made inroads in previously safe Tory, or safe Labour seats, with only a small number of seats that would be marginal in their absence. I think this changes the electoral dynamic in a way that hasn't been remarked upon.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    Ofcourse, because a right-wing eurosceptic is bound to be in the pocket of a leftie eurofederalist.
    Said it yesterday - Putin with Nige in his pocket is the zinger.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    It has to be based on truth or it doesn't work
    How many non Euro fanatics will recognise the bloke in the glasses?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JackW said:

    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
    Were there any such polls?

    Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015

    Almost two-thirds of Scots think immigration should be reduced, a poll commissioned by the BBC has suggested.

    It suggests that Scots are almost as negative about immigration as the population in the rest of Britain.
    The poll found that 49% wanted to see less immigration, exactly the same proportion as across Britain, and 15% said it should be stopped altogether.

    This is in contrast to politicians at Holyrood who tend to agree that Scotland needs more skilled migrants.


    http://m.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-31800374

    Typical BBC, misrepresenting British attitudes, 56% of Brits said "reduce by a lot":
    2013 British Social Attitudes survey endorsed reducing immigration. Indeed, over 56% chose 'reduced a lot', while 77% chose either 'reduced a lot' or 'reduced a little'. The same question yielded similar results on the British Social Attitudes survey in 2008, adding confidence that these are reliable estimates.
    http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/uk-public-opinion-toward-immigration-overall-attitudes-and-level-concern
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,721

    JackW said:

    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
    Were there any such polls?

    Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
    The sample size, selective releasing and the fact that VI is about the third question asked are all quite telling.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    isam said:

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    It has to be based on truth or it doesn't work
    How many non Euro fanatics will recognise the bloke in the glasses?
    I believe your point was something about Ed just now, stop shifting your ground.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,839
    isam said:

    stodge said:

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Is there ever a thread that's positive for the Blue Team? I pop in and it's always doom and gloom. It doesn't feel like that except at The Mirror.

    Mike has constantly called the GE for labour so it is only natural it would stick in the craw to write enthusiastically about positive conservative polls. He is only human

    At least he writes them. When most people on here are on the wrong side of an argument they just pretend it didn't happen and stop posting for a while or just ignore calls to fess up to being wrong
    To my knowledge, OGH has never discouraged anyone from putting up a pro-Conservative thread. David Herdson regularly contributes and he's a staunch Conservative.

    If the two of you stopped whingeing and contributed some articles of your own you might see a different balance on here. OGH doesn't have to be balanced and you don;t have to come on here every day and post hundreds of contributions complaining about ow unbalanced this forum is.

    I'm defending him you idiot

    I have offered several articles, they obviously didn't cut the mustard
    I wrote one - it got published and you need to tone down your temper. It's too early in the day. Now what did you put in the articles - if it was betting-related, I don't know whay it's not been included - some good odds on constituencies are alweays welcome.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
    Were there any such polls?

    Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
    Perhaps so but it's a trifle tricky to draw inferences from polls that we don't know exist. :smile:

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    I have not made any call on the election and will not do so. I simply look for value bets.

    So please no statements from anybody suggesting I have. Betting is all about perceptions of value..

    I take a dim view of people trying to put words in my mouth
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    It may of course be the debate furore has been marginally damaging for the Tories in polling terms but this has been massively offset by the realisation at least south of the border that a Lab/SNP hookup is the likely alternative government after the GE. This has concentrated voters minds and is a disaster in the making for EdM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,721
    PeterC said:

    Indigo said:

    The first task for Labour on the night of the general election will be to try to establish a consensus that the Conservatives have lost the mandate to govern. Of course, that won't be credible unless the Conservative lead in votes and/or seats has appreciably reduced, which is by no means clear, but if it does we should expect to hear Labour people say repeatedly throughout the night "We have not made the progress we would have liked, but the message from this election is clear: the Conservatives have lost the support of the British people/the right to govern". They'll hope the Conservatives will defenestrate Cameron, and worry about May 8 on May 8.

    Its going to get very messy if the nett effect is 35ish seats have moved from the LDs to the SNP with LAB and CON seats staying roughly as they are.

    With 304 seats the CONs are going so struggle to form a credible government, if the got into coalition with the LDs (with 22 LDs led by Farron that seems unlikely) and with C&S from the DUP they will get a Majority of 8 and its going to be as unstable as hell.

    258 LAB + 52 SNP plus greens/PC wont be quite enough to cross the line either.
    A new LIBDEM leader is not going to emerge on 8th May. Clegg will probably hold his seat IMO; even if he didn't there would be the matter of a party election. The formation of a governement would however be of the essence. I expect Cameron would just say to the Libs "It makes sense to continue the coalition. Take it or leave it". A bit like the debates really!

    The problem for the Lib Dems in this scenario is that if Labour get a credible leader and Farron is seen to prevaricate about sticking the knife in... they really will head for oblivion by 2020.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2015

    I have not made any call on the election and will not do so. I simply look for value bets.

    So please no statements from anybody suggesting I have. Betting is all about perceptions of value..

    I take a dim view of people trying to put words in my mouth

    Mike, are these words likely to fall from your mouth before polling day?

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    :naughty:

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Indigo said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    It has to be based on truth or it doesn't work
    How many non Euro fanatics will recognise the bloke in the glasses?
    I believe your point was something about Ed just now, stop shifting your ground.
    'Vote Nigel, Get Ed'. There you go.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Quincel said:

    The LDs have released a private poll (with data tables) of Lynne Featherstone's seat. It shows her neck and neck with Labour 38/37%. However:

    Candidates are named in the VI question
    The VI question follows questions about Lynne's and the Labour candidates favourability

    Even with that the Lib Dems are still 1% behind. #ComfortPolling

    http://www.markpack.org.uk/129651/exclusive-new-poll-shows-featherstone-in-dead-heat-with-labour-in-hornsey-wood-green/

    I note they haven't released a poll in Bermondsey or Twickenham.
    Were there any such polls?

    Who knows? But we know that the LDs have been privately polling their own seats. I was just making a point about selective release of polls; we can draw inferences about data not released, and we can also conclude that the polls which are released are disproportionately likely to have been 'lucky' ones with a favourable sample.
    Perhaps so but it's a trifle tricky to draw inferences from polls that we don't know exist. :smile:

    That's the art of it.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    isam said:

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    It has to be based on truth or it doesn't work
    How many non Euro fanatics will recognise the bloke in the glasses?
    I believe your point was something about Ed just now, stop shifting your ground.
    'Vote Nigel, Get Ed'. There you go.
    As they nearly discovered in Heywood and Middleton.... oh, wait!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    Indigo said:
    I'm looking forward to Nigel in Ed's pocket.
    It has to be based on truth or it doesn't work
    One reason why the kipper version is rather lame!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    I have not made any call on the election and will not do so. I simply look for value bets.

    So please no statements from anybody suggesting I have. Betting is all about perceptions of value..

    I take a dim view of people trying to put words in my mouth

    You've been suggesting people back Labour Most Seats for ages (since it was dead-level, at least). Should they cut their losses?
This discussion has been closed.