politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% b
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New thread: Labour lead at -40
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The Scottish people are independent. As are the people of Wales and England and NI.Luckyguy1983 said:
Independence is a deeply visceral instinct. It has nothing to do with economics -economic arguments are unearthed to fit the conclusion that independence is right, not the other way around.welshowl said:
Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).Dair said:
No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.Alanbrooke said:
Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?Dair said:
What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?welshowl said:
We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.Pulpstar said:
You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !Alanbrooke said:
My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.Dair said:
You mean like we ALREADY have?Flightpath said:
Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.chestnut said:
....Dair said:When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.
That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
And a currency problem.
Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
Everyone of them is represented in Parliament according to their relative size. They, we all, are independent within the UK.
It is absurd to think that the people of Scotland are not independent but that somehow the people of California are.
Peddling lies by SNP apologists will not change that.0 -
What do you mean, he weaponized the NHS...he weaponized legal tax planning...he weaponized the debates...he is now 10 points clear in the polls...oh wait.Tissue_Price said:Ed needs to close down this debate issue sharpish.
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Will this FINALLY serve as a wake-up call to Labour and stop with their utterly anodyne, inoffensive messages? "A plan for working families" is the epitome of "meh". And they're certainly not going to win by default by wailing about how evil the Tories are without saying anything positive about themselves.0
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Probably an outlier... but I wonder what Ed Miliband is thinking tonightTheScreamingEagles said:Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.compouter2 said:Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.0 -
Shhh u'll give Mike S ideas about a thread not on the YG largest tory lead for >2 yrs ;-)chestnut said:These 4 point leads are good news for SLAB.
If anything is going to drive Scots back to Labour, it's big Tory leads across the UK.
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.. with You gov, possibly but swingback looks really like its coming.. Can King Canute Ed stop it..compouter2 said:Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
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You big tease... tried to find the thread to get the first!Tissue_Price said:New thread: Labour lead at -4
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We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.DavidL said:
There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.compouter2 said:Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.0 -
Why Dave can't win with a 4 point lead?Purseybear said:Shhh u'll give Mike S ideas about a thread not on the YG largest tory lead for >2 yrs ;-)
Already written. In triplicate.0 -
We are not worthy, we are not worthy :-)RodCrosby said:
Five weeks out in a forecast made two years ago...SquareRoot said:Wow .. Rod Crosby is a sage.
Must try to do better. ;-)0 -
Where @compouter2 by the way?Smarmeron said:The increase is definitely getting to the upper limits of even optimistic margin of error. Something is shifting.
Still scraping Basil off the road?0 -
Keep calm Labour people, don't ditch Ed.0
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I said on 23rd February that I thought that rogue Ashcroft poll of Labour +4 might be masking the trend.
And lo....
Which isn't a surprise to those of us knocking the doors. There is only one unifying theme on the doorsteps. Ed Miliband Must Never Be Prime Minister.0 -
Stand by for a 'Tories need to be 11 points ahead. Or sumfink.' thread.peter_from_putney said:0 -
There was a story that Nicola is willing to trade away scrapping Trident in return for granting Holyrood the power to call the next referendumSeanT said:If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,
This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.
I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.0 -
As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".0
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The chicken labelling stuff was a pile of crap. Awful student union crap. Whether you agree with Cameron it was brave to go against the broadcasters.
Probably just people seeing spring sunshine, bit more dosh, economy in the pocket sort of stuff. Bit of MoE = small tory lead but a trend.0 -
If you want to have an MP in Scotland that will see you right vote Tory. Look at the attention pandas get over sheep.SeanT said:
Don't see the logic. Devomax protects Scotland from any "nasty Tory laws". All present polls point to a very close election - even if they are now pointing to a Tory "victory" rather than a Labour "victory".chestnut said:These 4 point leads are good news for SLAB.
If anything is going to drive Scots back to Labour, it's big Tory leads across the UK.
If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,
This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.
I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.0 -
No the Frank Beck case was quite big here.SeanT said:
You think prolonged and historic abuse of kids in Leicester was mainly due to "botched austerity measures"?foxinsoxuk said:
This is the story:FrancisUrquhart said:More examples of high quality local government kiddie care. From what I can gather, seems it has been dysfunctional for many years.
https://twitter.com/Leicester_Merc/status/575047655082082304
http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/Senior-sackings-Leicester-City-Council-left/story-26141171-detail/story.html
It seems that in a botched austerity measure last year 30 Social Workers left, leaving an unsustainable workload for the rest.
Several people have been sacked for mismanagement.
This headline is about a botched review of social services leaving them understaffed.0 -
Yeah it's what everyone says to me too. Not heard 1 single person say they'd vote for him and loads saying same thing. Never never never. Think he's more despised than Kinnock.MarqueeMark said:I said on 23rd February that I thought that rogue Ashcroft poll of Labour +4 might be masking the trend.
And lo....
Which isn't a surprise to those of us knocking the doors. There is only one unifying theme on the doorsteps. Ed Miliband Must Never Be Prime Minister.0 -
....cough cough....now now PB Tories...calm down calm down...0
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Either way Ashcroft polls are untested.. they need to be seen in context to actual results.. There was another pollster who was untested in the UK who got it very wrong.
Stick to the real gold standard.. ICM0 -
Well, quite so, but allowing the debate to be framed in terms of 'independence' as opposed to something like 'separation' was just a very early cock up among many.Flightpath said:
The Scottish people are independent. As are the people of Wales and England and NI.
Everyone of them is represented in Parliament according to their relative size. They, we all, are independent within the UK.
It is absurd to think that the people of Scotland are not independent but that somehow the people of California are.
Peddling lies by SNP apologists will not change that.0 -
Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?0
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If the Tories are perceived to be doing 'too' well, the volatility element diminishes.SeanT said:
Don't see the logic. Devomax protects Scotland from any "nasty Tory laws". All present polls point to a very close election - even if they are now pointing to a Tory "victory" rather than a Labour "victory".
If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,
This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.
I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.
We have three four point leads now.
Imagine your six point lead. That's borderline Tory majority with a couple of dozen Lib Dems and maybe a few Kippers/NI Unionists lending support when it matters.
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Lorralorralaughs.. I wonder how his 7% lead is faring..steve_garner said:As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".
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And Piers Morgan is not going to electrocute himself now. Definitely down on the day.TheScreamingEagles said:
We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.DavidL said:
There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.compouter2 said:Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.0 -
Got on Tory majority before Xmas, but still thinking a Maj of 20-30 is their maximum.Purseybear said:Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
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Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...The very very best the Tories could get is a tiny majority.Purseybear said:Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
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Shame no one was tempted to back the under 43.5 in my aggregate Monday Kipper Poll quote.
MU 44
Not as much as a shame as me laying Nacho Monreal FGS though... don't think I have ever not celebrated the Arse going 1-0 up at OT before0 -
Not how it works me friend in british constitution. 10pt clear can = 40 or 50 seat maj.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...Purseybear said:Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
So just asking if anyones on it?0 -
Tell me about it, only time I was ever cheering for Manchester United.DavidL said:
And Piers Morgan is not going to electrocute himself now. Definitely down on the day.TheScreamingEagles said:
We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.DavidL said:
There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.compouter2 said:Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.0 -
Have some sympathy for Jack W. As his next ARSE poll is only 10 hours away, Mrs Jack will be administering a serious doze of syrup of figs or some other laxative to ensure his arse twitches sufficiently in the morning.0
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The £1000 Blair donation to his campaign must be worth a few per cent.SquareRoot said:
Lorralorralaughs.. I wonder how his 7% lead is faring..steve_garner said:As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".
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No it doesn't.Purseybear said:
Not how it works me friend in british constitution. 10pt clear can = 40 or 50 seat maj.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...Purseybear said:Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
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Rob - you've got Con and Lab scores wrong way round on Populus.RobD said:Graphs updated - http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
Be sure to check out the second tab with a zoom in of 2015!0 -
There are some not too difficuld Tory gains from LD, but not easy to find Labour seats that will turn blue. The figures would have to be 40 odd gains from Labour. I cannot see it myself.Danny565 said:
Got on Tory majority before Xmas, but still thinking a Maj of 20-30 is their maximum.Purseybear said:Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
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Pauline MacNeil the soon to be ex Labour MP for Kilmarnock not keen on tactical voting.0
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Its all going terribly wrong for EdM. his Lib Dem crutch has broken, his Scottish safety net has a huge hole in it and the old "we need judge lead enquiry, make everything illegal" soundbite is wearing very thin. His Bandwagon is losing wheels every day. One wheel on my wagon and i'm still rolling along ....just
POEWAS0 -
Sean T
The NAT gains in Scotland make no difference whatsoever to Cameron's hopes of a majority save the last, sole, lonely, isolated, Mundell who could well lose his seat as well. Not a poltical point just arithmetic.0 -
Ed Balls?foxinsoxuk said:not easy to find Labour seats that will turn blue.
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The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.
Scotland Tonight
First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them.
Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.
This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.0 -
And I would agree with him. Megan Ward was great in that film.steve_garner said:As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".
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Interestingly I think Populus, YouGov in both the Mon Times and Sun Times, Opinium and Ashcroft are all +1 towards the Tories compared with this time last week. So only a small movement but seems to be reflected across a range of pollsters0
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We seem to be missing the L word again...
I have no idea which party Sir Peter Soulsby and Vi Dempster belong to.
Leicester children's services 'fell apart' under review
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-317944800 -
Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?TheScreamingEagles said:
We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitchDaemonBarber said:so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
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Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?0
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To be fair on Jacks ARSE with added APLOMB, on Saturday he put the Tories on over 300 and gaining seats.Easterross said:Have some sympathy for Jack W. As his next ARSE poll is only 10 hours away, Mrs Jack will be administering a serious doze of syrup of figs or some other laxative to ensure his arse twitches sufficiently in the morning.
Jacks ARSE leads where others fear not to tread. You may recall that he has the SNP on 35 too, considerably fewer than some other forecasts.
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I believe PtP gave the nod to Jezki in the 3:20 but Pricewise have apparently tipped Vaniteux (33/1 now into 28/1)Richard_Nabavi said:Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?
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@JohnLilburne
It certainly looks like it, I wonder if the shift will be more pronounced in some section of the voters compared to others (age, certainty to vote, etc,)?0 -
I'm not sure. Probably.DaemonBarber said:
Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?TheScreamingEagles said:
We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitchDaemonBarber said:so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budget. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.0 -
Not intentional, honest guvner! (I wish people were consistent in reporting the blues first).MikeL said:
Rob - you've got Con and Lab scores wrong way round on Populus.RobD said:Graphs updated - http://goo.gl/9RfFdf
Be sure to check out the second tab with a zoom in of 2015!0 -
Is there a horse race on?Richard_Nabavi said:Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?
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@TheScreamingEagles
Nakedly political? Never!
"Conservatives have denied taxpayer-backed bonds with ‘market-leading rates’ are election bribe for older voters"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/09/george-osborne-pensioner-bonds-tory-campaign-letters0 -
Don't know why but that reminds me of a joke that only really works with a Scots accent...SeanT said:
No, it's RAPE, SODOMY and non-consensual TROMBONING.Dair said:The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.
Scotland Tonight
First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them.
Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.
This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.
What do you do if you find a trombone in your garden?
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It may be an outlier but as far as I can see the last few YouGovs have had tories on 34 36 35 34. before that there was a 31 but before that there were 34 33 33 35 33 33.Charles said:
Probably an outlier... but I wonder what Ed Miliband is thinking tonightTheScreamingEagles said:Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
The average rounds up to 34.
If we include the current and treat the Tory Party like an ice skater (ie deduct the lowest and highest and forget all about the Russian judge voting low) we get even closer to 34 on rounding.
So if its an outlier then surely its not by much.
Sorry to call you Shirley...0 -
@politicshome: Tomorrow's Financial Times front page: Osborne eyes breathing space over austerity push http://t.co/KuGfYGjTnlTheScreamingEagles said:we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
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if osborne gets this budget right the tories could add another 2 -3% on their lead, some kippers will be coming home too, on the other hand if osborne blows it (i dont think he will) then who knowsTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not sure. Probably.DaemonBarber said:
Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?TheScreamingEagles said:
We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitchDaemonBarber said:so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budgets. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.0 -
Should the trend to the Blue Team continue, coupled with Labour's massive impending losses in Scotland, that 226 - 250 seats band may not be wholly unrealistic. Skybet's 8/1 is currently the best price ...... still an unlikely winner, but more like a 5/1 shot in my opinion, based on the current polls.
DYOR.0 -
What is the most obviously over done example of trying to hide your identity by affecting a certain style of talking... or writing... that you have ever seen?0
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Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.1202602310 -
How long does it take for a tactical vote to become a swing vote or a vote for the party one voted for as a tactic?Easterross said:Pauline MacNeil the soon to be ex Labour MP for Kilmarnock not keen on tactical voting.
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28-point swing, at any rate.Tissue_Price said:Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.1202602310 -
Labour brand is toxic in Scotland due to standing with the Conservatives in the "Better Together" campaign.Tissue_Price said:Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.1202602310 -
Glasgow NE could go lolTissue_Price said:
28-point swing, at any rate.Tissue_Price said:Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.1202602310 -
Where's PtP when you need him - don't fret, I feel sure he'll be making regular appearances this week, starting tomorrow morning.Pong said:
Is there a horse race on?Richard_Nabavi said:Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?
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Populus confirmed they were subsamples lumped together. Not properly weighted.Tissue_Price said:Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.1202602310 -
It's page 55 here, figures for lots of cities - but on a "living nearest to" basis:
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_February_2015-BPC.pdf0 -
There does seem to have been a shift over the last couple of weeks towards the Cons. If this is sustained I could see 36 Con Lab 29 on election day and a lead of around 10 points in England and Labour being wiped out in Scotland, but making up some ground in Wales.0
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The UK wide Populus poll was carried out in February, across the major cities of around 14,000 people with more than 600 in Glasgow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus confirmed they were subsamples lumped together. Not properly weighted.Tissue_Price said:Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231
It showed the rise in SNP support in the city at 9.8% while Labour dropped 9.5% since November last year.
The change since the 2010 election is even greater with the SNP up 28.5% dan Labour down 27.7%.
Where is this Populus ?0 -
See Mr Price's comment below.Pulpstar said:
The UK wide Populus poll was carried out in February, across the major cities of around 14,000 people with more than 600 in Glasgow.TheScreamingEagles said:
Populus confirmed they were subsamples lumped together. Not properly weighted.Tissue_Price said:Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231
It showed the rise in SNP support in the city at 9.8% while Labour dropped 9.5% since November last year.
The change since the 2010 election is even greater with the SNP up 28.5% dan Labour down 27.7%.
Where is this Populus ?0 -
Night of the Long Polls for Ed.
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The Conservatives lead by 0.7% on average, in March's 12 polls.0
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Ed's Scottish ratings are atrocious, thankfully.0
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lol.peter_from_putney said:
Where's PtP when you need him - don't fret, I feel sure he'll be making regular appearances this week, starting tomorrow morning.Pong said:
Is there a horse race on?Richard_Nabavi said:Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?
My single, not very exciting tip for the Arkle is to take the 5/2 from Betfair Sportsbook on un de sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths.
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At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.0 -
There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
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Can't find this.Pong said:
lol.peter_from_putney said:
Where's PtP when you need him - don't fret, I feel sure he'll be making regular appearances this week, starting tomorrow morning.Pong said:
Is there a horse race on?Richard_Nabavi said:Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?
My single, not very exciting tip for the Arkle is to take the 5/2 from Betfair Sportsbook on un de sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths.0 -
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.0 -
Both !SimonStClare said:
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
Ed's ratings north of the border are utterly appalling and brand Labour has contaminated itself with "Better together Tory freshener". The only brand that is immune from Tory toxification in Scotland is errm the Tories0 -
It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.SimonStClare said:
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.
Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.0 -
If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.RodCrosby said:
There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.0 -
@PeterMannionMP: A strange sort of symmetry to my day. It started with Ed Balls' press conference. Ended with fecal transplants on #Newsnight. Night all.0
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Nope. Opposition, done properly, is a difficult business. Your party has to confront why it lost, and change. Wittering on about food banks and the alleged privatisation of the NHS for 4 years is no substitute.Dair said:
It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.SimonStClare said:
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.
Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.0 -
labour are heading for sub 250 and irrelevance for the SNP beckons again.Dair said:
It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.SimonStClare said:
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.
Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
You shouldn't keep ruling out deals with the winning party..0 -
Well, get your wee pretendy government to do something about it. "They'll rue the day" is a phrase that comes unbidden to mind.Dair said:The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.
Scotland Tonight
First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them.
Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.
This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.
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Less than two months out from the election? Literally suicide. Anyway, anyone who wants to lead the party will want to do so with a clean slate not after winning a very bloody battle just weeks before an election. October was the time to do it, after Ed turned up the volume but Labour are too happy in their comfort zone. The Tories would have decapitated a leader that gave a speech like that but for Labour it hit all of their comfort zone notes so he survived.Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.0 -
What would matter more than pensioner bonds and another £200 on the tax allowance is the tax take not tax giveaways and the control of spending which taken together would show the deficit target being met. The rabbit out of any hat would not be giveaways but the deficit target being met and by more than predicted. It a moot point if we will get it.kjohnw said:
if osborne gets this budget right the tories could add another 2 -3% on their lead, some kippers will be coming home too, on the other hand if osborne blows it (i dont think he will) then who knowsTheScreamingEagles said:
I'm not sure. Probably.DaemonBarber said:
Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?TheScreamingEagles said:
We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitchDaemonBarber said:so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budgets. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
The most nakedly political budget of all time was in 2010.
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As in, not literally.MaxPB said:
Less than two months out from the election? Literally suicide.Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
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Step forward, Harriet Harman.SimonStClare said:
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.0 -
That would go down like a lead balloon with the electorate.Dair said:
If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.RodCrosby said:
There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.0 -
Calling @antifrank
If you have a particular name in mind for your non-Ed Labour PM then there is probably £2 @ 200.0 and £5 @ 100.0 waiting on betfair for you.0 -
Purely a hypothetical question, and he wouldn't "have" to go, in any case. Politics being what it is, they would never be united in that aim. Half of them will be calculating their own ambitions would be better served by him carrying on, losing, and the knives coming out after the election...Dair said:
If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.RodCrosby said:
There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
But he said he's carrying on, regardless, IIRC. Labour has a big problem.0 -
Just like Ed is currently going down with the electorate.RobD said:
That would go down like a lead balloon with the electorate.Dair said:
If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.RodCrosby said:
There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
Labour. Fecked if they do and fecked if they don't.0 -
Who do you think is keeping the tissues going for this premature polling ejaculation. This is the biggest PBHODGEGASM yet. Shares in keyboard cleaners have rocketed in the last half hour.Charles said:
Where @compouter2 by the way?Smarmeron said:The increase is definitely getting to the upper limits of even optimistic margin of error. Something is shifting.
Still scraping Basil off the road?0 -
Lest we forget, Labour polled higher under her tenure in 2010 than they are currently...Pong said:
Step forward, Harriet Harman.SimonStClare said:
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?Dair said:At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.0