When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.
.... That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
You mean like we ALREADY have?
My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.
And a currency problem.
You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey ! Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.
The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).
Independence is a deeply visceral instinct. It has nothing to do with economics -economic arguments are unearthed to fit the conclusion that independence is right, not the other way around.
The Scottish people are independent. As are the people of Wales and England and NI. Everyone of them is represented in Parliament according to their relative size. They, we all, are independent within the UK. It is absurd to think that the people of Scotland are not independent but that somehow the people of California are. Peddling lies by SNP apologists will not change that.
Ed needs to close down this debate issue sharpish.
What do you mean, he weaponized the NHS...he weaponized legal tax planning...he weaponized the debates...he is now 10 points clear in the polls...oh wait.
Will this FINALLY serve as a wake-up call to Labour and stop with their utterly anodyne, inoffensive messages? "A plan for working families" is the epitome of "meh". And they're certainly not going to win by default by wailing about how evil the Tories are without saying anything positive about themselves.
Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.
If anything is going to drive Scots back to Labour, it's big Tory leads across the UK.
Don't see the logic. Devomax protects Scotland from any "nasty Tory laws". All present polls point to a very close election - even if they are now pointing to a Tory "victory" rather than a Labour "victory".
If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,
This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.
I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.
If you want to have an MP in Scotland that will see you right vote Tory. Look at the attention pandas get over sheep.
I said on 23rd February that I thought that rogue Ashcroft poll of Labour +4 might be masking the trend.
And lo....
Which isn't a surprise to those of us knocking the doors. There is only one unifying theme on the doorsteps. Ed Miliband Must Never Be Prime Minister.
Yeah it's what everyone says to me too. Not heard 1 single person say they'd vote for him and loads saying same thing. Never never never. Think he's more despised than Kinnock.
Either way Ashcroft polls are untested.. they need to be seen in context to actual results.. There was another pollster who was untested in the UK who got it very wrong. Stick to the real gold standard.. ICM
The Scottish people are independent. As are the people of Wales and England and NI. Everyone of them is represented in Parliament according to their relative size. They, we all, are independent within the UK. It is absurd to think that the people of Scotland are not independent but that somehow the people of California are. Peddling lies by SNP apologists will not change that.
Well, quite so, but allowing the debate to be framed in terms of 'independence' as opposed to something like 'separation' was just a very early cock up among many.
Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
Don't see the logic. Devomax protects Scotland from any "nasty Tory laws". All present polls point to a very close election - even if they are now pointing to a Tory "victory" rather than a Labour "victory".
If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,
This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.
I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.
If the Tories are perceived to be doing 'too' well, the volatility element diminishes.
We have three four point leads now.
Imagine your six point lead. That's borderline Tory majority with a couple of dozen Lib Dems and maybe a few Kippers/NI Unionists lending support when it matters.
Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.
And Piers Morgan is not going to electrocute himself now. Definitely down on the day.
Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
Got on Tory majority before Xmas, but still thinking a Maj of 20-30 is their maximum.
Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...The very very best the Tories could get is a tiny majority.
Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...
Not how it works me friend in british constitution. 10pt clear can = 40 or 50 seat maj.
Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.
And Piers Morgan is not going to electrocute himself now. Definitely down on the day.
Tell me about it, only time I was ever cheering for Manchester United.
Have some sympathy for Jack W. As his next ARSE poll is only 10 hours away, Mrs Jack will be administering a serious doze of syrup of figs or some other laxative to ensure his arse twitches sufficiently in the morning.
Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...
Not how it works me friend in british constitution. 10pt clear can = 40 or 50 seat maj.
Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
Got on Tory majority before Xmas, but still thinking a Maj of 20-30 is their maximum.
There are some not too difficuld Tory gains from LD, but not easy to find Labour seats that will turn blue. The figures would have to be 40 odd gains from Labour. I cannot see it myself.
Its all going terribly wrong for EdM. his Lib Dem crutch has broken, his Scottish safety net has a huge hole in it and the old "we need judge lead enquiry, make everything illegal" soundbite is wearing very thin. His Bandwagon is losing wheels every day. One wheel on my wagon and i'm still rolling along ....just
The NAT gains in Scotland make no difference whatsoever to Cameron's hopes of a majority save the last, sole, lonely, isolated, Mundell who could well lose his seat as well. Not a poltical point just arithmetic.
The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.
Scotland Tonight First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them. Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.
This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.
Interestingly I think Populus, YouGov in both the Mon Times and Sun Times, Opinium and Ashcroft are all +1 towards the Tories compared with this time last week. So only a small movement but seems to be reflected across a range of pollsters
Have some sympathy for Jack W. As his next ARSE poll is only 10 hours away, Mrs Jack will be administering a serious doze of syrup of figs or some other laxative to ensure his arse twitches sufficiently in the morning.
To be fair on Jacks ARSE with added APLOMB, on Saturday he put the Tories on over 300 and gaining seats.
Jacks ARSE leads where others fear not to tread. You may recall that he has the SNP on 35 too, considerably fewer than some other forecasts.
@JohnLilburne It certainly looks like it, I wonder if the shift will be more pronounced in some section of the voters compared to others (age, certainty to vote, etc,)?
so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?
I'm not sure. Probably.
Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budget. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.
Scotland Tonight First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them. Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.
This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.
No, it's RAPE, SODOMY and non-consensual TROMBONING.
Don't know why but that reminds me of a joke that only really works with a Scots accent...
What do you do if you find a trombone in your garden?
Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Probably an outlier... but I wonder what Ed Miliband is thinking tonight
It may be an outlier but as far as I can see the last few YouGovs have had tories on 34 36 35 34. before that there was a 31 but before that there were 34 33 33 35 33 33. The average rounds up to 34. If we include the current and treat the Tory Party like an ice skater (ie deduct the lowest and highest and forget all about the Russian judge voting low) we get even closer to 34 on rounding. So if its an outlier then surely its not by much. Sorry to call you Shirley...
so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?
I'm not sure. Probably.
Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budgets. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
if osborne gets this budget right the tories could add another 2 -3% on their lead, some kippers will be coming home too, on the other hand if osborne blows it (i dont think he will) then who knows
Should the trend to the Blue Team continue, coupled with Labour's massive impending losses in Scotland, that 226 - 250 seats band may not be wholly unrealistic. Skybet's 8/1 is currently the best price ...... still an unlikely winner, but more like a 5/1 shot in my opinion, based on the current polls. DYOR.
What is the most obviously over done example of trying to hide your identity by affecting a certain style of talking... or writing... that you have ever seen?
There does seem to have been a shift over the last couple of weeks towards the Cons. If this is sustained I could see 36 Con Lab 29 on election day and a lead of around 10 points in England and Labour being wiped out in Scotland, but making up some ground in Wales.
At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
Both !
Ed's ratings north of the border are utterly appalling and brand Labour has contaminated itself with "Better together Tory freshener". The only brand that is immune from Tory toxification in Scotland is errm the Tories
At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.
But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.
Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
@PeterMannionMP: A strange sort of symmetry to my day. It started with Ed Balls' press conference. Ended with fecal transplants on #Newsnight. Night all.
At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.
But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.
Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
Nope. Opposition, done properly, is a difficult business. Your party has to confront why it lost, and change. Wittering on about food banks and the alleged privatisation of the NHS for 4 years is no substitute.
At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.
But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.
Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
labour are heading for sub 250 and irrelevance for the SNP beckons again.
You shouldn't keep ruling out deals with the winning party..
The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.
Scotland Tonight First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them. Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.
This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.
Well, get your wee pretendy government to do something about it. "They'll rue the day" is a phrase that comes unbidden to mind.
At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
Less than two months out from the election? Literally suicide. Anyway, anyone who wants to lead the party will want to do so with a clean slate not after winning a very bloody battle just weeks before an election. October was the time to do it, after Ed turned up the volume but Labour are too happy in their comfort zone. The Tories would have decapitated a leader that gave a speech like that but for Labour it hit all of their comfort zone notes so he survived.
so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?
I'm not sure. Probably.
Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budgets. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
if osborne gets this budget right the tories could add another 2 -3% on their lead, some kippers will be coming home too, on the other hand if osborne blows it (i dont think he will) then who knows
What would matter more than pensioner bonds and another £200 on the tax allowance is the tax take not tax giveaways and the control of spending which taken together would show the deficit target being met. The rabbit out of any hat would not be giveaways but the deficit target being met and by more than predicted. It a moot point if we will get it. The most nakedly political budget of all time was in 2010.
At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.
If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.
Purely a hypothetical question, and he wouldn't "have" to go, in any case. Politics being what it is, they would never be united in that aim. Half of them will be calculating their own ambitions would be better served by him carrying on, losing, and the knives coming out after the election...
But he said he's carrying on, regardless, IIRC. Labour has a big problem.
Who do you think is keeping the tissues going for this premature polling ejaculation. This is the biggest PBHODGEGASM yet. Shares in keyboard cleaners have rocketed in the last half hour.
Comments
Everyone of them is represented in Parliament according to their relative size. They, we all, are independent within the UK.
It is absurd to think that the people of Scotland are not independent but that somehow the people of California are.
Peddling lies by SNP apologists will not change that.
Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
Yes, but the Torygraph managed to make an article out of one throwaway sentence in the Statesman (possibly)
Are we not entertained?
Already written. In triplicate.
Still scraping Basil off the road?
And lo....
Which isn't a surprise to those of us knocking the doors. There is only one unifying theme on the doorsteps. Ed Miliband Must Never Be Prime Minister.
Probably just people seeing spring sunshine, bit more dosh, economy in the pocket sort of stuff. Bit of MoE = small tory lead but a trend.
This headline is about a botched review of social services leaving them understaffed.
Stick to the real gold standard.. ICM
We have three four point leads now.
Imagine your six point lead. That's borderline Tory majority with a couple of dozen Lib Dems and maybe a few Kippers/NI Unionists lending support when it matters.
MU 44
Not as much as a shame as me laying Nacho Monreal FGS though... don't think I have ever not celebrated the Arse going 1-0 up at OT before
So just asking if anyones on it?
POEWAS
The NAT gains in Scotland make no difference whatsoever to Cameron's hopes of a majority save the last, sole, lonely, isolated, Mundell who could well lose his seat as well. Not a poltical point just arithmetic.
Scotland Tonight
First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them.
Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.
This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.
I have no idea which party Sir Peter Soulsby and Vi Dempster belong to.
Leicester children's services 'fell apart' under review
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-31794480
Jacks ARSE leads where others fear not to tread. You may recall that he has the SNP on 35 too, considerably fewer than some other forecasts.
It certainly looks like it, I wonder if the shift will be more pronounced in some section of the voters compared to others (age, certainty to vote, etc,)?
Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budget. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
One of my personal favourites, "You'll have had your teabagging"
Nakedly political? Never!
"Conservatives have denied taxpayer-backed bonds with ‘market-leading rates’ are election bribe for older voters"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/09/george-osborne-pensioner-bonds-tory-campaign-letters
What do you do if you find a trombone in your garden?
The average rounds up to 34.
If we include the current and treat the Tory Party like an ice skater (ie deduct the lowest and highest and forget all about the Russian judge voting low) we get even closer to 34 on rounding.
So if its an outlier then surely its not by much.
Sorry to call you Shirley...
DYOR.
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_February_2015-BPC.pdf
It showed the rise in SNP support in the city at 9.8% while Labour dropped 9.5% since November last year.
The change since the 2010 election is even greater with the SNP up 28.5% dan Labour down 27.7%.
Where is this Populus ?
My single, not very exciting tip for the Arkle is to take the 5/2 from Betfair Sportsbook on un de sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths.
I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
Ed's ratings north of the border are utterly appalling and brand Labour has contaminated itself with "Better together Tory freshener". The only brand that is immune from Tory toxification in Scotland is errm the Tories
But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.
Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
You shouldn't keep ruling out deals with the winning party..
The most nakedly political budget of all time was in 2010.
If you have a particular name in mind for your non-Ed Labour PM then there is probably £2 @ 200.0 and £5 @ 100.0 waiting on betfair for you.
But he said he's carrying on, regardless, IIRC. Labour has a big problem.
Labour. Fecked if they do and fecked if they don't.