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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% b

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  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    welshowl said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).
    Independence is a deeply visceral instinct. It has nothing to do with economics -economic arguments are unearthed to fit the conclusion that independence is right, not the other way around.
    The Scottish people are independent. As are the people of Wales and England and NI.
    Everyone of them is represented in Parliament according to their relative size. They, we all, are independent within the UK.
    It is absurd to think that the people of Scotland are not independent but that somehow the people of California are.
    Peddling lies by SNP apologists will not change that.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    New thread: Labour lead at -4
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514

    Ed needs to close down this debate issue sharpish.

    What do you mean, he weaponized the NHS...he weaponized legal tax planning...he weaponized the debates...he is now 10 points clear in the polls...oh wait.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited March 2015
    Will this FINALLY serve as a wake-up call to Labour and stop with their utterly anodyne, inoffensive messages? "A plan for working families" is the epitome of "meh". And they're certainly not going to win by default by wailing about how evil the Tories are without saying anything positive about themselves.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2015

    Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    Probably an outlier... but I wonder what Ed Miliband is thinking tonight

    :cold_sweat:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.

    There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.

    Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    chestnut said:

    These 4 point leads are good news for SLAB.

    If anything is going to drive Scots back to Labour, it's big Tory leads across the UK.

    Shhh u'll give Mike S ideas about a thread not on the YG largest tory lead for >2 yrs ;-)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sean_F
    Yes, but the Torygraph managed to make an article out of one throwaway sentence in the Statesman (possibly)

    Are we not entertained?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.

    .. with You gov, possibly but swingback looks really like its coming.. Can King Canute Ed stop it..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    New thread: Labour lead at -4

    You big tease... tried to find the thread to get the first! ;)
  • DavidL said:

    Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.

    There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.

    Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
    We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Shhh u'll give Mike S ideas about a thread not on the YG largest tory lead for >2 yrs ;-)

    Why Dave can't win with a 4 point lead?

    Already written. In triplicate.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    RodCrosby said:

    Wow .. Rod Crosby is a sage.

    Five weeks out in a forecast made two years ago...

    Must try to do better. ;-)
    We are not worthy, we are not worthy :-)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    The increase is definitely getting to the upper limits of even optimistic margin of error. Something is shifting.

    Where @compouter2 by the way?

    Still scraping Basil off the road?
  • Keep calm Labour people, don't ditch Ed.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    I said on 23rd February that I thought that rogue Ashcroft poll of Labour +4 might be masking the trend.

    And lo....

    Which isn't a surprise to those of us knocking the doors. There is only one unifying theme on the doorsteps. Ed Miliband Must Never Be Prime Minister.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    SeanT said:

    chestnut said:

    CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    OK. We have a trend.
    You know it, I know it, but does OGH know it yet?
    Watch those betting markets move now!
    Stand by for a 'Tories need to be 11 points ahead. Or sumfink.' thread.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,

    This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.

    I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.

    There was a story that Nicola is willing to trade away scrapping Trident in return for granting Holyrood the power to call the next referendum
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    The chicken labelling stuff was a pile of crap. Awful student union crap. Whether you agree with Cameron it was brave to go against the broadcasters.

    Probably just people seeing spring sunshine, bit more dosh, economy in the pocket sort of stuff. Bit of MoE = small tory lead but a trend.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SeanT said:

    chestnut said:

    These 4 point leads are good news for SLAB.

    If anything is going to drive Scots back to Labour, it's big Tory leads across the UK.

    Don't see the logic. Devomax protects Scotland from any "nasty Tory laws". All present polls point to a very close election - even if they are now pointing to a Tory "victory" rather than a Labour "victory".

    If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,

    This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.

    I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.
    If you want to have an MP in Scotland that will see you right vote Tory. Look at the attention pandas get over sheep.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    More examples of high quality local government kiddie care. From what I can gather, seems it has been dysfunctional for many years.

    https://twitter.com/Leicester_Merc/status/575047655082082304

    This is the story:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/Senior-sackings-Leicester-City-Council-left/story-26141171-detail/story.html

    It seems that in a botched austerity measure last year 30 Social Workers left, leaving an unsustainable workload for the rest.

    Several people have been sacked for mismanagement.
    You think prolonged and historic abuse of kids in Leicester was mainly due to "botched austerity measures"?
    No the Frank Beck case was quite big here.

    This headline is about a botched review of social services leaving them understaffed.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    I said on 23rd February that I thought that rogue Ashcroft poll of Labour +4 might be masking the trend.

    And lo....

    Which isn't a surprise to those of us knocking the doors. There is only one unifying theme on the doorsteps. Ed Miliband Must Never Be Prime Minister.

    Yeah it's what everyone says to me too. Not heard 1 single person say they'd vote for him and loads saying same thing. Never never never. Think he's more despised than Kinnock.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    ....cough cough....now now PB Tories...calm down calm down...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Either way Ashcroft polls are untested.. they need to be seen in context to actual results.. There was another pollster who was untested in the UK who got it very wrong.
    Stick to the real gold standard.. ICM
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,848



    The Scottish people are independent. As are the people of Wales and England and NI.
    Everyone of them is represented in Parliament according to their relative size. They, we all, are independent within the UK.
    It is absurd to think that the people of Scotland are not independent but that somehow the people of California are.
    Peddling lies by SNP apologists will not change that.

    Well, quite so, but allowing the debate to be framed in terms of 'independence' as opposed to something like 'separation' was just a very early cock up among many.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    SeanT said:


    Don't see the logic. Devomax protects Scotland from any "nasty Tory laws". All present polls point to a very close election - even if they are now pointing to a Tory "victory" rather than a Labour "victory".

    If you're Scots, the best and most useful vote in 2015 is for Sturgeon and Salmond, to have most influence over a volatile Westminster,

    This does NOT mean a vote for indy. Scots MPS at Westminster can't call a 2nd referendum.

    I expect the Nats to do significantly less well at Holyrood in 2016.

    If the Tories are perceived to be doing 'too' well, the volatility element diminishes.

    We have three four point leads now.

    Imagine your six point lead. That's borderline Tory majority with a couple of dozen Lib Dems and maybe a few Kippers/NI Unionists lending support when it matters.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".

    Lorralorralaughs.. I wonder how his 7% lead is faring..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    DavidL said:

    Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.

    There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.

    Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
    We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.
    And Piers Morgan is not going to electrocute himself now. Definitely down on the day.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?

    Got on Tory majority before Xmas, but still thinking a Maj of 20-30 is their maximum.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015

    Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?

    Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...The very very best the Tories could get is a tiny majority.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    Shame no one was tempted to back the under 43.5 in my aggregate Monday Kipper Poll quote.

    MU 44

    Not as much as a shame as me laying Nacho Monreal FGS though... don't think I have ever not celebrated the Arse going 1-0 up at OT before
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?

    Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...
    Not how it works me friend in british constitution. 10pt clear can = 40 or 50 seat maj.

    So just asking if anyones on it?
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.

    There has been a peculiar trend in recent weeks where Yougov starts the week off with the Tories doing well and then drifts back to Labour as the week goes on. Really cannot think of any possible reason for this so it may just be a coincidence.

    Still after England being knocked out the WC and United being knocked out of the FA Cup in one day a small Yougov pick me up does not go amiss.
    We saw last year an odd trend, Monday's Populus had a large Lab lead, but Friday's had smaller Lab leads/Tory leads.
    And Piers Morgan is not going to electrocute himself now. Definitely down on the day.
    Tell me about it, only time I was ever cheering for Manchester United.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Have some sympathy for Jack W. As his next ARSE poll is only 10 hours away, Mrs Jack will be administering a serious doze of syrup of figs or some other laxative to ensure his arse twitches sufficiently in the morning.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".

    Lorralorralaughs.. I wonder how his 7% lead is faring..
    The £1000 Blair donation to his campaign must be worth a few per cent.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015

    Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?

    Not going to happen...their support is not wide enough. Scotland they get 1 seat if lucky, parts of Wales are no go areas, North East and North West unpopular...
    Not how it works me friend in british constitution. 10pt clear can = 40 or 50 seat maj.

    No it doesn't.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    RobD said:

    Graphs updated - http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Be sure to check out the second tab with a zoom in of 2015!

    Rob - you've got Con and Lab scores wrong way round on Populus.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Danny565 said:

    Curious q here. ANyone got on the tories for a thumping majority? Never hear it mentioned but as matter of interest with a big bonus budget they could go to a 10 pt lead in next 2 months. Not suggesting they will just asking if anyone's on it?

    Got on Tory majority before Xmas, but still thinking a Maj of 20-30 is their maximum.
    There are some not too difficuld Tory gains from LD, but not easy to find Labour seats that will turn blue. The figures would have to be 40 odd gains from Labour. I cannot see it myself.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Pauline MacNeil the soon to be ex Labour MP for Kilmarnock not keen on tactical voting.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Its all going terribly wrong for EdM. his Lib Dem crutch has broken, his Scottish safety net has a huge hole in it and the old "we need judge lead enquiry, make everything illegal" soundbite is wearing very thin. His Bandwagon is losing wheels every day. One wheel on my wagon and i'm still rolling along ....just

    POEWAS
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Sean T

    The NAT gains in Scotland make no difference whatsoever to Cameron's hopes of a majority save the last, sole, lonely, isolated, Mundell who could well lose his seat as well. Not a poltical point just arithmetic.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    not easy to find Labour seats that will turn blue.

    Ed Balls?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015
    The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.

    Scotland Tonight :-1:
    First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them.
    Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.

    This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    As Nick Palmer would say, "tick tock".

    And I would agree with him. Megan Ward was great in that film.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Interestingly I think Populus, YouGov in both the Mon Times and Sun Times, Opinium and Ashcroft are all +1 towards the Tories compared with this time last week. So only a small movement but seems to be reflected across a range of pollsters
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    We seem to be missing the L word again...

    I have no idea which party Sir Peter Soulsby and Vi Dempster belong to.

    Leicester children's services 'fell apart' under review

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-31794480
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?

    We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
    Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Have some sympathy for Jack W. As his next ARSE poll is only 10 hours away, Mrs Jack will be administering a serious doze of syrup of figs or some other laxative to ensure his arse twitches sufficiently in the morning.

    To be fair on Jacks ARSE with added APLOMB, on Saturday he put the Tories on over 300 and gaining seats.

    Jacks ARSE leads where others fear not to tread. You may recall that he has the SNP on 35 too, considerably fewer than some other forecasts.



  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?

    I believe PtP gave the nod to Jezki in the 3:20 but Pricewise have apparently tipped Vaniteux (33/1 now into 28/1)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JohnLilburne
    It certainly looks like it, I wonder if the shift will be more pronounced in some section of the voters compared to others (age, certainty to vote, etc,)?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited March 2015

    so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?

    We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
    Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?
    I'm not sure. Probably.

    Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budget. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    Graphs updated - http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Be sure to check out the second tab with a zoom in of 2015!

    Rob - you've got Con and Lab scores wrong way round on Populus.
    Not intentional, honest guvner! (I wish people were consistent in reporting the blues first).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    No, it's RAPE, SODOMY and non-consensual TROMBONING.

    When 50 shades was released there was a Twitter meme on #ScottishSexPositions

    One of my personal favourites, "You'll have had your teabagging"
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?

    Is there a horse race on?

    :)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    Nakedly political? Never!

    "Conservatives have denied taxpayer-backed bonds with ‘market-leading rates’ are election bribe for older voters"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/09/george-osborne-pensioner-bonds-tory-campaign-letters
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    SeanT said:

    Dair said:

    The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.

    Scotland Tonight :-1:
    First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them.
    Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.

    This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.

    No, it's RAPE, SODOMY and non-consensual TROMBONING.
    Don't know why but that reminds me of a joke that only really works with a Scots accent...

    What do you do if you find a trombone in your garden?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Charles said:

    Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    Probably an outlier... but I wonder what Ed Miliband is thinking tonight

    :cold_sweat:
    It may be an outlier but as far as I can see the last few YouGovs have had tories on 34 36 35 34. before that there was a 31 but before that there were 34 33 33 35 33 33.
    The average rounds up to 34.
    If we include the current and treat the Tory Party like an ice skater (ie deduct the lowest and highest and forget all about the Russian judge voting low) we get even closer to 34 on rounding.
    So if its an outlier then surely its not by much.
    Sorry to call you Shirley...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.

    @politicshome: Tomorrow's Financial Times front page: Osborne eyes breathing space over austerity push http://t.co/KuGfYGjTnl
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited March 2015

    so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?

    We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
    Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?
    I'm not sure. Probably.

    Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budgets. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
    if osborne gets this budget right the tories could add another 2 -3% on their lead, some kippers will be coming home too, on the other hand if osborne blows it (i dont think he will) then who knows
  • Should the trend to the Blue Team continue, coupled with Labour's massive impending losses in Scotland, that 226 - 250 seats band may not be wholly unrealistic. Skybet's 8/1 is currently the best price ...... still an unlikely winner, but more like a 5/1 shot in my opinion, based on the current polls.
    DYOR.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    What is the most obviously over done example of trying to hide your identity by affecting a certain style of talking... or writing... that you have ever seen?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231
  • Pauline MacNeil the soon to be ex Labour MP for Kilmarnock not keen on tactical voting.

    How long does it take for a tactical vote to become a swing vote or a vote for the party one voted for as a tactic?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231

    28-point swing, at any rate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231

    Labour brand is toxic in Scotland due to standing with the Conservatives in the "Better Together" campaign.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231

    28-point swing, at any rate.
    Glasgow NE could go lol
  • Pong said:

    Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?

    Is there a horse race on?

    :)
    Where's PtP when you need him - don't fret, I feel sure he'll be making regular appearances this week, starting tomorrow morning.
  • Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231

    Populus confirmed they were subsamples lumped together. Not properly weighted.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2015
    It's page 55 here, figures for lots of cities - but on a "living nearest to" basis:

    http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_February_2015-BPC.pdf
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    There does seem to have been a shift over the last couple of weeks towards the Cons. If this is sustained I could see 36 Con Lab 29 on election day and a lead of around 10 points in England and Labour being wiped out in Scotland, but making up some ground in Wales.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231

    Populus confirmed they were subsamples lumped together. Not properly weighted.
    The UK wide Populus poll was carried out in February, across the major cities of around 14,000 people with more than 600 in Glasgow.

    It showed the rise in SNP support in the city at 9.8% while Labour dropped 9.5% since November last year.

    The change since the 2010 election is even greater with the SNP up 28.5% dan Labour down 27.7%.

    Where is this Populus ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Glasgow Populus? Is this just the Glasgow subsamples added together, do you think?

    http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/city-poll-puts-snp-further-ahead-199675n.120260231

    Populus confirmed they were subsamples lumped together. Not properly weighted.
    The UK wide Populus poll was carried out in February, across the major cities of around 14,000 people with more than 600 in Glasgow.

    It showed the rise in SNP support in the city at 9.8% while Labour dropped 9.5% since November last year.

    The change since the 2010 election is even greater with the SNP up 28.5% dan Labour down 27.7%.

    Where is this Populus ?
    See Mr Price's comment below.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Night of the Long Polls for Ed.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    The Conservatives lead by 0.7% on average, in March's 12 polls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Ed's Scottish ratings are atrocious, thankfully.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited March 2015

    Pong said:

    Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?

    Is there a horse race on?

    :)
    Where's PtP when you need him - don't fret, I feel sure he'll be making regular appearances this week, starting tomorrow morning.
    lol.

    My single, not very exciting tip for the Arkle is to take the 5/2 from Betfair Sportsbook on un de sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths.


  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Are there some nags I should be punting on for tomorrow?

    Is there a horse race on?

    :)
    Where's PtP when you need him - don't fret, I feel sure he'll be making regular appearances this week, starting tomorrow morning.
    lol.

    My single, not very exciting tip for the Arkle is to take the 5/2 from Betfair Sportsbook on un de sceaux winning by over 3.5 lengths.


    Can't find this.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
    Both !

    Ed's ratings north of the border are utterly appalling and brand Labour has contaminated itself with "Better together Tory freshener". The only brand that is immune from Tory toxification in Scotland is errm the Tories :D
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
    It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.

    But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.

    Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.
    If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PeterMannionMP: A strange sort of symmetry to my day. It started with Ed Balls' press conference. Ended with fecal transplants on #Newsnight. Night all.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
    It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.

    But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.

    Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
    Nope. Opposition, done properly, is a difficult business. Your party has to confront why it lost, and change. Wittering on about food banks and the alleged privatisation of the NHS for 4 years is no substitute.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
    It won't make a difference in Scotland, Ed is not a factor.

    But they need 270 seats to form a government with SNP support. Ed appears to be pulling them down below that. They don't need anyone spectacular, just someone who is Not Ed to keep them up around 33% and hit their 270 seats.

    Flint or the postie would surely be enough to keep them on 270.
    labour are heading for sub 250 and irrelevance for the SNP beckons again.

    You shouldn't keep ruling out deals with the winning party..
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    Dair said:

    The pretence that the Scottish Broadcast Media are going to remain remotely impartial has been thrown out the window tonight.

    Scotland Tonight :-1:
    First piece - Should Labour Veto deal with SNP - guests Two Labour MPs. No-one else, no SNP while the Labour Dinosaurs slate them.
    Second piece - Tactical Voting - Scotland in Union rep "vote anyone but SNP", ex-MSP Labour rep, Severin Carrell Guardian's chief Labour mouthpiece. No-one else.

    This is "impartial" broadcasting in Scotland in 2015.

    Well, get your wee pretendy government to do something about it. "They'll rue the day" is a phrase that comes unbidden to mind.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    Less than two months out from the election? Literally suicide. Anyway, anyone who wants to lead the party will want to do so with a clean slate not after winning a very bloody battle just weeks before an election. October was the time to do it, after Ed turned up the volume but Labour are too happy in their comfort zone. The Tories would have decapitated a leader that gave a speech like that but for Labour it hit all of their comfort zone notes so he survived.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    kjohnw said:

    so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?

    We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
    Are the polls finally synching up with the leadership ratings?
    I'm not sure. Probably.

    Just remember the most sustained shift in voting intention in this parliament was the omnishambles budgets. And we're just under 9 days away from the most nakedly political budget of all time.
    if osborne gets this budget right the tories could add another 2 -3% on their lead, some kippers will be coming home too, on the other hand if osborne blows it (i dont think he will) then who knows
    What would matter more than pensioner bonds and another £200 on the tax allowance is the tax take not tax giveaways and the control of spending which taken together would show the deficit target being met. The rabbit out of any hat would not be giveaways but the deficit target being met and by more than predicted. It a moot point if we will get it.
    The most nakedly political budget of all time was in 2010.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    MaxPB said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    Less than two months out from the election? Literally suicide.
    As in, not literally.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
    Step forward, Harriet Harman.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Dair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.
    If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.
    That would go down like a lead balloon with the electorate.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Calling @antifrank

    If you have a particular name in mind for your non-Ed Labour PM then there is probably £2 @ 200.0 and £5 @ 100.0 waiting on betfair for you.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Dair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.
    If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.
    Purely a hypothetical question, and he wouldn't "have" to go, in any case. Politics being what it is, they would never be united in that aim. Half of them will be calculating their own ambitions would be better served by him carrying on, losing, and the knives coming out after the election...

    But he said he's carrying on, regardless, IIRC. Labour has a big problem.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    RobD said:

    Dair said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    There is no mechanism. And no time to invent one.
    If the Shadow Cabinet told Ed to resign or they would hold a morning press conference asking him to resign, he would have to go.
    That would go down like a lead balloon with the electorate.
    Just like Ed is currently going down with the electorate.

    Labour. Fecked if they do and fecked if they don't.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2015
    Charles said:

    Smarmeron said:

    The increase is definitely getting to the upper limits of even optimistic margin of error. Something is shifting.

    Where @compouter2 by the way?

    Still scraping Basil off the road?
    Who do you think is keeping the tissues going for this premature polling ejaculation. This is the biggest PBHODGEGASM yet. Shares in keyboard cleaners have rocketed in the last half hour.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pong said:

    Dair said:

    At this rate, if Labour don't get rid of Ed, they are finished outside of Scotland as well.

    I know it's never been done before. But surely, cutting their losses at this stage would be the best strategy.

    As you say, tis rather late to do anything - but who would replace Ed? - Is it Ed who is toxic north of the border, or the Labour party?
    Step forward, Harriet Harman.
    Lest we forget, Labour polled higher under her tenure in 2010 than they are currently...
This discussion has been closed.