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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% behind with Ashcroft
Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (=), Con 32 (+1), LD 9 (+1), UKIP 15 (-1), GRN 6 (+1),
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I want my
MTVTNSI want my
I want my
MTVTNSLabour are heading for defeat, EdM will not become PM
The groups had noticed the latest frenzy over TV debates, but remained unmoved. In previous rounds people have said they would watch the debates if they happened, but those most apt to criticise David Cameron for his reluctance to take part were those already least inclined to vote for him.
This week again we found nothing to suggest Cameron would be seriously damaged if the debates did not go ahead and he was blamed: “he should spend his time running the country rather than standing on stage”. Indeed since the leaders only seem to “act like children” when they get together, the event would probably not be very enlightening anyway.
In You Gov I need a tie nd I'll be bang on the money fpr a tory 1% lead on average....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/pmqs/8955789/David-Cameron-defends-coalition-Its-not-like-were-brothers-Ed.html
"There won't be any huge migrant surges into the UK" the establishment told you, whilst calling UKIP "fruitcakes"...
UKIP right again.
Defend 'European values' with an army, says @JunckerEU. What he means is take over UK army & crush British values of freedom & democracy.
I hear on the Telegraph grapevine that Cammo and Co want to reduce our armed forces (land) to only 50K.
That means that after taking all the support troops out, there will be a maximum of 15K frontline forces, (i,e. Soldiers that actually fight). Tories and the rest of the lab/Libs selling out the country.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/ashcroft-national-poll-con-34-lab-30-lib-dem-5-ukip-15-green-8/#more-7768
The UKIP seats are Clacton, and then they gain three Scottish seats from the Lib Dems.
Fife North East, Ross Skye and Lochaber and Orkney and Shetland
The Greens still top the list as the only party which more say they would be happy to see in government (48%) than say they would be unhappy (44%)
Greens are way to the left of the Nats.
"Ed opens door to a coalition with rampaging Scot Nats as polls predict a 'Braveheart battalion' of MPs storming Westminster"
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Big driver of CON position in latest Ashcroft poll is higher certainty to vote. Before turnout filter LAB & CON almost level pegging
4:07 PM - 9 Mar 2015
1. This close to the election, shouldn't all pollsters be using a turnout filter?
2. Should be good for Con with MORI?
Looks like Mike was right to tell us to keep an eye on the 2010 Lib Dems.
http://www.tiph.org/
What a fascinating and utterly bonkers place - like a living lesson in the subjectivity of truth.
Has anyone else been?
May2015 has Carmichael 13% ahead, Election Forecast 6% ahead.
I reckon he wins but by ~ 10%.
Given the loss of 30+ seats in Scotland for 1% of their vote share UK wide Labour's vote will be much less efficient than in 2010. They may well lose more than 10% of their seats for that 1%. Ouch.
So they are left hoping for a repeat of 2005 when they were pretty much equal with the Tories in England but got 92 extra seats. To achieve anything like this I think they need to be very close to the Tories in England. There will be a heavy penalty for every fraction of a percentage point.
I also think the collapse of the Lib Dems will reduce that advantage somewhat by giving the tories some relatively easy pick ups although Labour is likely to get some as well. Some analysis has double counted this advantage by assuming these ex Lib Dems are going to vote Labour tactically. No doubt some of them are but they are already in the numbers and should not be added on again.
From the polling Labour continue to do well in London. The logic of this is that they are not doing well elsewhere. UKIP continue to improve the efficiency of the Tory vote compared with previous elections with 6-8 percentage points worth of votes being reallocated away from uselessly large majorities. I still think this will prove to be a major factor in reducing Labour's advantage.
If Lord A is right then most seats is likely to be very close with the Tories edging ahead. If Populus are Labour are still nailed on, possibly even for a majority given that they will then have scored pretty much dead level in England.
The gap is very reminiscent of the Major/Blair numbers around this time in 1997.
Nobody on the left seems to appreciate just how utterly toxic this position is.
But were an EU army to eventually go to war with Russia no doubt the EU would lose and the US would ultimately be forced to come in and rescue us, LOL!
Actually, is it intended to frighten Scottish voters into not voting SNP ..... hence Labour, or stampede English voters into voting Tory?
It would be the most triumphantly efficient vote share ever seen.
The proposal is more of a concern for those EU countries - like Ireland and Austria - who are declared as neutral.
Que sera sera.
Whatever will be will be
There's always two thousand and thirty
Que sera sera
Non-EU members of NATO are US, Canada, Turkey, Albania, Iceland and Norway.
Ethics! Isn't that a county next to London
"Not toffs" ? Even that only appeals to 30% of the electorate.
Indeed.
@PickardJE: HSBC/PAC: Hodge going for TV clip asking Fairhead if she is "incredibly naive or totally incompetent" - says she should resign from BBC.
@anntreneman: Hodge now tells rona that she should resign from bbc and if she won't then the govt should sack her... It's going really well here
or not
http://wingsoverscotland.com/through-the-vortex/
2* Lib Dems vote share+ looks likely.
Nah, thought not...
What they need to do is persuade the Scots that the next PM will be the head of the largest party in the HoC and it is therefore critical that that is Labour. This means Scots must do their duty, hold their noses and vote for the embarrassing muppets they have as candidates (they may word this bit a little differently).
There is the small problem of this contention not being true but this has never, ever, stopped Labour in the past and it will not this time.
I just don't think it is going to work.
Yes - no issues there. The Russians will be cool with that. As will everyone else, I'm sure.
Hi @Sunil_P2, Our next poll will be released later this month (date tbc), follow @TNS_UK to get the latest updates. bit.ly/1BQLzEg
*Facepalm*
TV coverage was almost non-existent. Even the Labour Broadcasting Corporation (Glasgow Branch) struggled to say much positive about the conference beyond neither Smurf nor Milibland made much, if any references to the SNP. At least the Labour Broadcasting Corporation didn't subject us to Smurf in his running shorts being filmed running along the concourse outside said Labour Broadcasting Corporation premises.
The BBC is seen by most Scots as the mouth piece of the Labour Party and very anti-SNP.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11457973/Rumours-of-Scottish-Labours-demise-are-premature.html
There was a tramp on Sunday Scotland Politics, wild eyed, hair all over the place, unkept of beard and clothing. Looked just like Cochrane.
It would probably cost them the job but what a way to go!
I was wondering who Ashcroft was using.
If it is to save the Labour Party in Scotland, then no, there is absolutely nothing whatsoever they can do. There will be a 55% SNP poll before May. Final result will be very close to SNP vote majority.
If it is to save the Union, then there are some unlikely scenarios but even those (such as pulling out of Scotland) don't seem all that attractive to the Labour mindset of "party first".
NATO and the EU accepting them likewise.
On the same tack, BBC Scotland articles on the BBC News website are the only part of said site which does not allow Comments Sections AT ALL. #bbcbias
SMAPS gives the SNP 55 seats on only a 14 point lead.