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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Monday polls so far: LAB 1% ahead with Populus but 4% b

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  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Pulpstar said:

    saddened said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    Scotland wouldn't be in the EU.
    Same difference with non EU and EU suppliers, both are zero VAT just different numbers in boxes in the return.
    In my case I buy a commodity and have several other local suppliers who provide the same product. I just put import of the hassle list since there's no advantage to buying outside the UK.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108


    Eire? You will have to forgive rather than nit pick at my shorthand. The main point is the needless additional complexity and cost.

    Ireland has had consistently higher GDP growth than the UK since 1949.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    Tough b*astard is just setting up an excuse to squeeze them on price

    *sucks teeth*

    "Oooh. I could do it. But it's such a hassle. Tell you what, knock 5% off the price and we can carry on like before"
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dair said:

    Charles said:


    Are you sure you are right?

    Macallan will charge VAT to Sainsbury's, which will be recorded in the Scottish region. Sainsbury's will then reclaim that VAT in London with this reclaim offset against the gross VAT charge that it adds onto its customers' bills. The consequence is that only the Sainsbury VAT is registered as being in London

    The thread is getting complicated by the various scenarops but I believe you're asking about the current situation in the UK.

    I had to check and Erdington is indeed HQed in Scotland, so in this case, the VAT would (probably) be correctly reflected as things stand. If it was a Diageo brand (based in London) it would all be London Revenue. Possibly.
    In most cases it will be the HQ of the relevant legal entity, which is quite often different to head office
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    Tough b*astard is just setting up an excuse to squeeze them on price

    *sucks teeth*

    "Oooh. I could do it. But it's such a hassle. Tell you what, knock 5% off the price and we can carry on like before"
    Actually Charles, they said they'd move the account SOTB. At the time the bigger issue was currency since I really didn't want to manage currency hassle.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    Who would be their lender of last resort?
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    Tough b*astard is just setting up an excuse to squeeze them on price

    *sucks teeth*

    "Oooh. I could do it. But it's such a hassle. Tell you what, knock 5% off the price and we can carry on like before"
    Actually Charles, they said they'd move the account SOTB. At the time the bigger issue was currency since I really didn't want to manage currency hassle.
    better luck next time!
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    So you're saying Scottish funds are tax avoiders. Nice.

    However the currency argument is the killer for pensions. pensioners don't want the risk of currency fluctuations and being in a country that can't support it's balance sheet isn't an option.

    I have 2 pensions based in Scottish funds and will move them if Scotland goes Indy.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Dunno. Not my concern. Having an actuary in a foreign country would've been for us as it was not considered good practice for scheme members by the trustees. No brainer, simply a non debate.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited March 2015
    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    Who would be their lender of last resort?
    Same as today, the government wherever the activity takes place.

    For example the Lender of Last Resort for the majority of Icelandic Banking losses was HM Government.

    Who of course refused to act as such and then became the Guarantor.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dair said:

    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    Who would be their lender of last resort?
    Same as today, the government wherever the activity takes place.

    For example the Lender of Last Resort for the majority of Icelandic Banking losses for HM Government.

    Who of course refused to act as such and then became the Guarantor.
    Suggest you go back and study your central banking regulations again. HM Government only paid because the Icelandi refused to do so.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,512
    SeanT said:

    Dair said:

    STV News at Six featuring the wonderful SNPTory poster of Salmond with Miliband in his pocket.

    It really makes you wonder if the Tories realise how much it will harm them if they help the SNP achieve a whitewash in Scotland. It might hurt Labour in England but then what, the Union is probably going to be finished by this election and the Tories are supposed to have the Union as a fundamental principle of their party.

    The Tories just just as incapable of coming up with a coherent strategy to deal with the Constitutional issue. They should be all over FFA even if it's only Scotland that becomes a Federal associate. But their strategy doesn't seem to be looking past May 7th.

    WOW. The Tories are intending to run the poster IN SCOTLAND. SNP must be laughing all the way to the Ballot Box.

    You know what? We're done with Scotland. If you wanna stay, stay, if you wanna go, go, but we Really Don't Give A F*ck Any More. Your endless, adolescent whingeing is as boring as it is unproductive. For a supposedly ancient nation, Scotland does a brilliant impression of a spoiled and pimpled teenager who can't quite do without mum's ironing.

    Sad thing for you is that, of course, if and when there is another vote, you'll STILL vote NO, because you have no answer to the currency question, and because your diminishing resource of oil is now $60 a barrel.
    I can't see how anyone think that the SNP preparing for a huge engagement with Westminster with Salmond at the helm, and potentially joining the UK Government makes independence more likely. Obviously it won't. I'm delighted that Labour are facing disaster and the SNP are coming to Westminster to fight for what they want -that's democracy at work. That's a revived institution at work. Bring on William Wallace's new SNP army I say.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    Who would be their lender of last resort?
    Same as today, the government wherever the activity takes place.

    For example the Lender of Last Resort for the majority of Icelandic Banking losses for HM Government.

    Who of course refused to act as such and then became the Guarantor.
    Suggest you go back and study your central banking regulations again. HM Government only paid because the Icelandi refused to do so.
    Oh, so HM Government refused to act as Lender of Last Resort for UK banks requiring the US Treasury to provide UK banks with in the region of $250bn of liquidity?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited March 2015
    More examples of high quality local government kiddie care. From what I can gather, seems it has been dysfunctional for many years.

    https://twitter.com/Leicester_Merc/status/575047655082082304

  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Dair said:

    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Charles said:



    Who would be their lender of last resort?

    Same as today, the government wherever the activity takes place.

    For example the Lender of Last Resort for the majority of Icelandic Banking losses for HM Government.

    Who of course refused to act as such and then became the Guarantor.
    Suggest you go back and study your central banking regulations again. HM Government only paid because the Icelandi refused to do so.
    Oh, so HM Government refused to act as Lender of Last Resort for UK banks requiring the US Treasury to provide UK banks with in the region of $250bn of liquidity?
    A liquidity window is not a LoLR function.
  • Options
    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    SeanT said:

    Sad thing for you is that, of course, if and when there is another vote, you'll STILL vote NO, because you have no answer to the currency question, and because your diminishing resource of oil is now $60 a barrel.

    Your faith in the sanity of the Scottish people is more intact than mine.

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    @Charles

    quite so.

    I think Dair is refusing to recognise that investors and more particularly trustees will be a lot more switched on to overeseas risks following the Iceland fiasco.

    Better to have the risk at home where at least you can put pressure on the govt.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,512
    welshowl said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    When you look at all the areas where Scottish "Revenue" is not recorded by the UK Government (or GERS) as Scottish but in other parts of the UK, there is good reason to be certain this is why Westminster refuse to offer FFA.

    ....
    That said, it's the direction the electorate is pushing everyone towards and the government should respect that, organise accordingly and let the market do it's thing and have another election in 2020 that deals with the repercussions.
    Faffing around with VAT between England and Scotland shows what a sillyness two plus nations is within the British Isles.
    You mean like we ALREADY have?
    My aluminium supplier delivers from a site in the W Mids but has central invoicing from Glasgow. Before Indyref I told them that they'd be off my purchasing list if I had to manage cross-border VAT.

    And a currency problem.
    You'd dump supplier for a bit of box 8 and 9 stuff. Crikey !
    Most of my co's suppliers and customers aren't in UK - EU VAT isn't that bad !
    We told our pension scheme actuary in Scotland that if independence happened they moved to rUK or we'd move our business. No real choice frankly from our viewpoint.
    What about the Actuaries with various UK Funds based in Bermuda (which is an awful lot)?
    Are you recommending welshowl shifts his fund from Scotland to a tax haven ?
    No, I'm pointing out how fatuous Brass Plate arguments are. At one point, around half the Actuaries employed by Scottish Widows were based in Bermuda while still managing nominally "UK" funds for a "UK" company.

    The Unionist arguments about "all your Financial Services will leave" are just as fatuous.
    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).
    Independence is a deeply visceral instinct. It has nothing to do with economics -economic arguments are unearthed to fit the conclusion that independence is right, not the other way around.
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Charles said:



    Who would be their lender of last resort?

    Same as today, the government wherever the activity takes place.

    For example the Lender of Last Resort for the majority of Icelandic Banking losses for HM Government.

    Who of course refused to act as such and then became the Guarantor.
    Suggest you go back and study your central banking regulations again. HM Government only paid because the Icelandi refused to do so.
    Oh, so HM Government refused to act as Lender of Last Resort for UK banks requiring the US Treasury to provide UK banks with in the region of $250bn of liquidity?
    A liquidity window is not a LoLR function.
    Actually that is what a Lender of Last Resort means.

    But don't worry, most people seem to confuse this with a deposit guarantee, which is totally different and NOT provided by a Central Bank.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    BBC leading with Free School Expansion story.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    economic arguments are unearthed to fit the conclusion that independence is right, not the other way around.

    By unearthed, I think you mean "made up"
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    chestnut said:

    BBC leading with Free School Expansion story.

    I can scarcely believe that wasn't eclipsed by non-debate-gate...
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scott_P said:

    economic arguments are unearthed to fit the conclusion that independence is right, not the other way around.

    By unearthed, I think you mean "made up"
    I strongly disagree, that implies some level of thought and there isn't any.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Scott_P said:
    According to Private Eye that cartoon Matt did a couple of weeks back - "The Editor says not to mention the cricket. Write about HSBC instead." - he imposed on the Telegraph by only giving them one draft as opposed to his usual six. Matt is more important than HSBC for the Telegraph's bottom line, it seems :)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Charles said:

    Dair said:

    Charles said:



    Who would be their lender of last resort?

    Same as today, the government wherever the activity takes place.

    For example the Lender of Last Resort for the majority of Icelandic Banking losses for HM Government.

    Who of course refused to act as such and then became the Guarantor.
    Suggest you go back and study your central banking regulations again. HM Government only paid because the Icelandi refused to do so.
    Oh, so HM Government refused to act as Lender of Last Resort for UK banks requiring the US Treasury to provide UK banks with in the region of $250bn of liquidity?
    A liquidity window is not a LoLR function.
    Actually that is what a Lender of Last Resort means.

    But don't worry, most people seem to confuse this with a deposit guarantee, which is totally different and NOT provided by a Central Bank.
    Don't worry. For a variety of reasons I have an excellent knowledge of banking regulations. Although I will doff my cap in the presence of @Cyclefree

    The Fed did not have to extend its liquidity window to British owned banks, but chose to do so. Ultimately the lead regulator is responsible for the proper function of the bank. The problem is that the consequences are borne, as you noticed but misinterpreted, by the Central Banks in the countries in which the affected operations are active. This is the primary reason why we are seeing powerful forces (often tacitly or explicitly government backed) tending to balkanize the global banking system.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I strongly disagree, that implies some level of thought and there isn't any.

    Fantasy numbers endlessly regurgitated by the fanatics.

    And here's a special treat for all my fans, none of whom have worked out what retweet means yet...

    @olivernmoody: The Italian for "retweeted" turns out to be ritwittato. I don't know why this is so pleasing, but it is.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SeanT said:

    Dair said:

    STV News at Six featuring the wonderful SNPTory poster of Salmond with Miliband in his pocket.

    It really makes you wonder if the Tories realise how much it will harm them if they help the SNP achieve a whitewash in Scotland. It might hurt Labour in England but then what, the Union is probably going to be finished by this election and the Tories are supposed to have the Union as a fundamental principle of their party.

    The Tories just just as incapable of coming up with a coherent strategy to deal with the Constitutional issue. They should be all over FFA even if it's only Scotland that becomes a Federal associate. But their strategy doesn't seem to be looking past May 7th.

    WOW. The Tories are intending to run the poster IN SCOTLAND. SNP must be laughing all the way to the Ballot Box.

    You know what? We're done with Scotland. If you wanna stay, stay, if you wanna go, go, but we Really Don't Give A F*ck Any More. Your endless, adolescent whingeing is as boring as it is unproductive. For a supposedly ancient nation, Scotland does a brilliant impression of a spoiled and pimpled teenager who can't quite do without mum's ironing.

    Sad thing for you is that, of course, if and when there is another vote, you'll STILL vote NO, because you have no answer to the currency question, and because your diminishing resource of oil is now $60 a barrel.
    All the far lefties who have fled Labour to the SNP will fully agree with the poster. That is the point of it. The far left of the English Labour party will be quite happy to press for the same agenda. If the English electorate give them a chance.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Dair said:

    chestnut said:

    Dair said:

    You didn't read my post.

    WESTMINSTER may be unable to offer FFA if they know it would look positive for the SNP. Scottish FFA GDP at 110% of rUK GDP would demonstrate that the Unionists have been lying for years.

    I've read so many variations of what Scotland's finances are, it remains to be seen what the truth is.

    The next UK government needs to push the boundary as far as it can and see where it leads.
    Yes, indeed there are a lot of hoops to jump through to get a proper estimate of actual Scottish GDP, especially major items like VAT and Corporation Tax being skewed by the Head Office effect.

    But Westminster *probably* knows the answer. And this would explain why the Tories - with no represenation to lose from Scottish Home Rule - are still reluctant to offer FFA.

    There is no constitutional problem with the Tories allowing FFA. Scotland would still be in the Union, the UK would still exist. Logically, the only possible reason is that Westminster has the numbers and they have supressed the reports - just like they did with McCrone for 25 years.
    Cultural and ideological objections, as well as DEMOCRATIC ONES. Tories believe in the UK, so do most Scots. So the union remains.

  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460


    @ lucky guy

    Quite so. Scotland is perfectly viable as a separate state and if they want it fine, but I remain amazed at those in Scotland who seem not to want to grasp there will be downsides to going it alone to go with the perceived upsides. Our trustees for instance I'm sure have no view either way per se on Scottish independence, but do have a view on perceived increased risk and will act accordingly. If some Nats don't want to believe that, well fine, let them believe that if it makes them feel better.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Now we know why Ed won't rule it out, and the Tory poster is so accurate...

    @TelePolitics: Labour strategists want a 'permanent' deal with the SNP, it is claimed http://t.co/01PbgcA57E
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    Who claimed?
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    Now we know why Ed won't rule it out, and the Tory poster is so accurate...

    @TelePolitics: Labour strategists want a 'permanent' deal with the SNP, it is claimed http://t.co/01PbgcA57E

    This is the nub of the point I made just a moment ago.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited March 2015
    .

    This is the nub of the point I made just a moment ago.

    And you were right
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Flightpath
    Who claimed?
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    Now we know why Ed won't rule it out, and the Tory poster is so accurate...

    @TelePolitics: Labour strategists want a 'permanent' deal with the SNP, it is claimed http://t.co/01PbgcA57E

    Do you honestly believe this is any more than Telegraph fantasies?

    I mean, it doesn't stand up to logical scrutiny. It would kill Labour, it would be short term given the SNP goals. Think what you want about the socialist mince Labour spout but they are not all completely brain dead.
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    SeanT said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
    You told us in an earlier comment, a few days ago, that England had literally RAPED Scotland.

    Those were your exact words. i.e. you sincerely and genuinely believe England, presumably under Thatcher, inserted the PENIS of the poll tax into the VAGINA of Scottish undersea hydrocarbons, producing tell-tale bruising in the PERINEUM of Arbroath's unemployment rate.

    Have I got that right? You guys were literally RAPED??
    Have we reached Peak Nat?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
    You're ranting again because you don't like the answers.

    This has nothing to do with punishing Scotland and everything to do with looking after our own financial interest, something you as a Nat advocate for yourself.

    The threat to Scotland's financial sector will be at ground level - vox cum pedibus - people will move their money because it's safer. And if they move it then the companies will have to follow or watch their business shrink.


  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SeanT said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
    You told us in an earlier comment, a few days ago, that England had literally RAPED Scotland.

    Those were your exact words. i.e. you sincerely and genuinely believe England, presumably under Thatcher, inserted the PENIS of the poll tax into the VAGINA of Scottish undersea hydrocarbons, producing tell-tale bruising in the PERINEUM of Arbroath's unemployment rate.

    Have I got that right? You guys were literally RAPED??
    I did warn the more impetuous to actually look up the definition of rape.

    From OED "2. The wanton destruction or spoiling of a place:
    the rape of the countryside"

    From Chambers "2 violation, despoiling or abuse. verb (raped, raping) 1 to commit rape on someone. 2 to violate or despoil, especially a country or place in wartime.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    It's not punishment. It's rational business. We have a duty to our pensioners to act rationally in good faith in their best interests. "Punishing" Scotland should not, does not, and would not come into it.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
    'Scottish' financial institutions have crashed, 'Scottish' oil price has crashed. The UK is picking up the bill.
    You have already shown yet again on this thread what an economic illiterate you are and you have a massive nerve to spout 'little englander' given your prejudice.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    More examples of high quality local government kiddie care. From what I can gather, seems it has been dysfunctional for many years.

    https://twitter.com/Leicester_Merc/status/575047655082082304

    This is the story:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/Senior-sackings-Leicester-City-Council-left/story-26141171-detail/story.html

    It seems that in a botched austerity measure last year 30 Social Workers left, leaving an unsustainable workload for the rest.

    Several people have been sacked for mismanagement.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    I wonder what article the "Torygraph" made that bedtime story up from?
    Or indeed which paragraph?

    " The SNP surge now looks certain to deprive Labour of a parliamentary majority. Our sister site, May2015, currently predicts that the SNP will win all but three seats in Scotland, wiping out 40 Labour seats in the process. But for all the Conservative glee at Ed Miliband's woes, it isn't particularly good news for the Tories, either.

    The SNP have already ruled out supporting a Conservative government, which means that Labour losses in Scotland may not change the parliamentary arithmetic in terms of coalition talks all that much. (One hopeful Labour strategist describes a "CDU-CSU" scenario, where Labour would form a permanent alliance at Westminster with the nationalist party, much as the Bavarian Christian Social Union allies with the Christian Democrats in Germany.)"
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/say-hello-tories-secret-weapon-alex-salmond

    My money is on this one, but perhaps there is a better candidate?
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2015
    Permanent deal with the SNP..... screw their own supporters.. they must be mental.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
    'Scottish' financial institutions have crashed, 'Scottish' oil price has crashed. The UK is picking up the bill.
    You have already shown yet again on this thread what an economic illiterate you are and you have a massive nerve to spout 'little englander' given your prejudice.
    But sigh. The Nats are never wrong.
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    STV Scotland Tonight immediately after the ITV News is to discuss issue of tactical voting in Scotland.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    Dair said:

    SeanT said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
    You told us in an earlier comment, a few days ago, that England had literally RAPED Scotland.

    Those were your exact words. i.e. you sincerely and genuinely believe England, presumably under Thatcher, inserted the PENIS of the poll tax into the VAGINA of Scottish undersea hydrocarbons, producing tell-tale bruising in the PERINEUM of Arbroath's unemployment rate.

    Have I got that right? You guys were literally RAPED??
    I did warn the more impetuous to actually look up the definition of rape.

    From OED "2. The wanton destruction or spoiling of a place:
    the rape of the countryside"

    From Chambers "2 violation, despoiling or abuse. verb (raped, raping) 1 to commit rape on someone. 2 to violate or despoil, especially a country or place in wartime.
    Okay, this definition clearly doesn't apply to modern Scotland, then.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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    Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 7s 7 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Wow .. Rod Crosby is a sage.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,987
    Gold standard!
  • Options
    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    YouGov follows Ashcroft 4 point Tory lead. SUNIL get bending that ELBOW
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,894
    #crossovermonday
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    edited March 2015

    More examples of high quality local government kiddie care. From what I can gather, seems it has been dysfunctional for many years.

    https://twitter.com/Leicester_Merc/status/575047655082082304

    This is the story:

    http://m.leicestermercury.co.uk/Senior-sackings-Leicester-City-Council-left/story-26141171-detail/story.html

    It seems that in a botched austerity measure last year 30 Social Workers left, leaving an unsustainable workload for the rest.

    Several people have been sacked for mismanagement.
    It is more than that, much more.

    Starter for 10, 2012....and here we are again....Elaine McHale has retired from Wakefield Council....

    http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/general-news/exclusive-care-chiefs-step-down-as-man-jailed-for-killing-son-1-5065899

    2014...Simultaneously, interim director of children's services Elaine McHale was asked to see the council's chief operating officer and head of paid service Andy Keeling.

    http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/axe-fell-Vi-Dempster-Elaine-McHale/story-26142778-detail/story.html
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    Bugger!

    So that's average of 2.333%..... boo for big blue boys beating reds.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    You gotta wonder if this is starting to happen for the tories.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Jeez. Forget Braveheart, courage and invention. 'Visit the new Scotland, a nation of whining victims' should get the tourists flooding in over the Summer.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Crossover is official.
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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    It's the economy stupid.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Ashcroft, ICM and YG all have 4 point Tory leads.

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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    SeanT said:

    chestnut said:

    CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    OK. We have a trend.
    Yeah looking that way.
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    The increase is definitely getting to the upper limits of even optimistic margin of error. Something is shifting.
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    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Smarmeron said:

    I wonder what article the "Torygraph" made that bedtime story up from?
    Or indeed which paragraph?

    " The SNP surge now looks certain to deprive Labour of a parliamentary majority. Our sister site, May2015, currently predicts that the SNP will win all but three seats in Scotland, wiping out 40 Labour seats in the process. But for all the Conservative glee at Ed Miliband's woes, it isn't particularly good news for the Tories, either.

    The SNP have already ruled out supporting a Conservative government, which means that Labour losses in Scotland may not change the parliamentary arithmetic in terms of coalition talks all that much. (One hopeful Labour strategist describes a "CDU-CSU" scenario, where Labour would form a permanent alliance at Westminster with the nationalist party, much as the Bavarian Christian Social Union allies with the Christian Democrats in Germany.)"
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/say-hello-tories-secret-weapon-alex-salmond

    My money is on this one, but perhaps there is a better candidate?

    The CSU does not seek Bavarian Independence.
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Just a minor blip. Labour back in front with Yougov in the matter of days.
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    PB Tory o'clock.

    Welcome chums....
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Basil just fainted...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    If only Dave had agreed to the debates, maybe they wouldn't be..

    Oh, wait...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Jeez. Forget Braveheart, courage and invention. 'Visit the new Scotland, a nation of whining victims' should get the tourists flooding in over the Summer.

    Eck the King maker - on the opposition benches.lolz.
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    That is the Tories largest lead with YouGov since Jan 2012
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Jeez. Forget Braveheart, courage and invention. 'Visit the new Scotland, a nation of whining victims' should get the tourists flooding in over the Summer.

    lol, you've sold it when can I go ?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    These 4 point leads are good news for SLAB.

    If anything is going to drive Scots back to Labour, it's big Tory leads across the UK.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Tories have a four-point lead over Labour: CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    Labour sub 250 looks a punt.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,291
    Squirrel down....I repeat squirrel down....

    https://c1.staticflickr.com/9/8016/7144008715_7b8243e5c5_z.jpg
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Wow .. Rod Crosby is a sage.

    Five weeks out in a forecast made two years ago...

    Must try to do better. ;-)
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    I wonder what article the "Torygraph" made that bedtime story up from?
    Or indeed which paragraph?

    " The SNP surge now looks certain to deprive Labour of a parliamentary majority. Our sister site, May2015, currently predicts that the SNP will win all but three seats in Scotland, wiping out 40 Labour seats in the process. But for all the Conservative glee at Ed Miliband's woes, it isn't particularly good news for the Tories, either.

    The SNP have already ruled out supporting a Conservative government, which means that Labour losses in Scotland may not change the parliamentary arithmetic in terms of coalition talks all that much. (One hopeful Labour strategist describes a "CDU-CSU" scenario, where Labour would form a permanent alliance at Westminster with the nationalist party, much as the Bavarian Christian Social Union allies with the Christian Democrats in Germany.)"
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/say-hello-tories-secret-weapon-alex-salmond

    My money is on this one, but perhaps there is a better candidate?

    Historically, the CSU did grow out of the pre-War BVP, which favoured Bavarian autonomy, and had a pro-independence wing, but Bavarian independence is now very much on the fringe of the CSU. If the CSU wanted Bavaria to become independent, the CDU would certainly not ally with it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,987
    Graphs updated - http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

    Be sure to check out the second tab with a zoom in of 2015!
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    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited March 2015
    SeanT said:

    chestnut said:

    CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    OK. We have a trend.
    You know it, I know it, but does OGH know it yet?
    Watch those betting markets move now!
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Ed needs to close down this debate issue sharpish.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,512
    welshowl said:



    @ lucky guy

    Quite so. Scotland is perfectly viable as a separate state and if they want it fine, but I remain amazed at those in Scotland who seem not to want to grasp there will be downsides to going it alone to go with the perceived upsides. Our trustees for instance I'm sure have no view either way per se on Scottish independence, but do have a view on perceived increased risk and will act accordingly. If some Nats don't want to believe that, well fine, let them believe that if it makes them feel better.

    The hardcore don't really care if it's true or not. But the footsoldiers believe it (and are the ones who'll suffer). It's very like socialism in that respect. You can't argue with it because it's a calculation arguing with a feeling. One of the dopey sods here for the indyref chat became a nationalist because he felt rejected by the idiot English hooray henries when he studied at St Andrews. It's that basic.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    The trend is your friend.

    Unless you are Eddie No-mates Miliband, screaming that he will pass a law making it compulsory for the other kids in the park to have to play with him.....
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited March 2015

    Basil just fainted...

    Basil is celebrating, no more carrying the goalposts....for now.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    edited March 2015
    If ICM comes in close to last month then the whole 'outlier' view on it may need some revisionism and indeed much bowing and kneeling before the original gold standard...
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    SeanT said:

    chestnut said:

    CON 35%, LAB 31%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    OK. We have a trend.
    You know it, I know it, but does OGH know it yet?
    He does

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/574996104351203330
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,884
    Pretty likely we have CROSSOVER IMO
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Dair said:

    SeanT said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    welshowl said:


    Think what you like. I know our business would've left Scotland ( shame, we are happy with the service we get ).

    The Punishment argument doesn't come across as more compelling than any other Loyalist trope.
    Not listening to your customers is a surefire way of going out of business.
    I have no doubt that you are quite willing to participate in illogical and irrational actions to punish Scotland. I suspect but have no guarantee that this would not be the exogenous shock you imply. I suspect but have no guarantee that Scotland would be able to cope with it.

    I know and can be certain from historic evidence that Scotland's GDP is somewhere around 25% lower than it would be since 1980 if it had not been milked so heavily by England.

    The transition might lead to punishment, which would be a shame, especially as it would likely end up hurting England more (if Scottish financial institutions crashed, the rUK would be legally liable for most of the bill). But I do not put it past you. As Iceland shows, a small economy standing up to a bully, refusing to kow tow and take on liabilities it has no legal right to bear can do VERY well if it stands firm.

    The Little Englander mentality is a hard one to reason with. But it is also a reason to leave it behind even if it means a couple of percent off GDP for a year or two.
    You told us in an earlier comment, a few days ago, that England had literally RAPED Scotland.

    Those were your exact words. i.e. you sincerely and genuinely believe England, presumably under Thatcher, inserted the PENIS of the poll tax into the VAGINA of Scottish undersea hydrocarbons, producing tell-tale bruising in the PERINEUM of Arbroath's unemployment rate.

    Have I got that right? You guys were literally RAPED??
    I did warn the more impetuous to actually look up the definition of rape.

    From OED "2. The wanton destruction or spoiling of a place:
    the rape of the countryside"

    From Chambers "2 violation, despoiling or abuse. verb (raped, raping) 1 to commit rape on someone. 2 to violate or despoil, especially a country or place in wartime.
    If Scotland genuinely wanted independence they should have extended the franchise to England and they would have romped home.
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    so when are we expecting the debate backlash to be reflected in the polls?

    We're seeing it, the voters are punishing Ed for being a ScotNat whiny little bitch
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    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    what is it about Labour politicians? They all appear to be getting as fat and bloated as Gordon Brown.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    chestnut said:

    Ashcroft, ICM and YG all have 4 point Tory leads.

    Outliers are like buses - they always come in threes.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Somebody has got to get a hold of ed now and shake him before this all goes seriously t8ts up.

    He cannot entertain a coalition with the SNP. He simply cannot.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    SeanT said:

    For the moment I stand by my official S K Tremayne, sorry, Tom Knox prediction, from the other day, of something like

    CON: 36
    Labour: 30
    UKIP: 14
    LD: 10


    Added to big Nat gains in Scotland then Cameron is close to a Maj, but not quite.

    To be honest, I'm not even sure 30% is a cert for Labour.
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    PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    SeanT said:

    For the moment I stand by my official S K Tremayne, sorry, Tom Knox prediction, from the other day, of something like

    CON: 36
    Labour: 30
    UKIP: 14
    LD: 10


    Added to big Nat gains in Scotland then Cameron is close to a Maj, but not quite.

    Ok me then:

    Con 38
    Lab 29
    Ukip 9
    LD 10
This discussion has been closed.