politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battl
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Guest slot contributor, Stodge, casts his eye on the battle for London
Dr Carl Sagan once said “you have to understand the past to know the present”. Looking at the election battleground that is Greater London and its 73 seats, that quote seems strangely apposite.
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11/4 is not good value for Labour to win Battersea. They have no chance whatsoever, and contrary to what you say this is crystal clear from the local election results last year.
Enfield Southgate is doable for Labour, they narrowly polled the most votes there in the local elections last year and as in Enfield North the demographics are helping them considerably. Finchley & GG will be an easy Tory hold.
Lib Dems will hold Kingston easily and Twickenham is only a potential Tory gain if Vince steps down at the last minute.
Look at Heywood and Middleton. GE2010 was a 12.9% LAB Majority, at the by-election last year the LAB percentage of the vote didn't change by more than a few points, the LD vote cratered, the CON voter got hammered, and the Kipper vote suddenly put on 35% out of thin air.
This could suggest the LD vote is largely a NOTA vote, and the kippers are the new party of NOTA, or it could suggest WVM wants to ditch labour, and either the local Conservative voters are more naturally kippers anyway, or they want to help kick out Labour.
If that is repeated across the North, especially in WVM areas like the suburbs of the northern cities, Labour might be in for a bit of a scare.
Despite not looking good on paper Labour seem to think they have a good shot in Finchley and Golders Green so maybe there's something going on there.
2) The Greens will not win a seat in London
3) The Liberal Democrats will not gain a seat in London
4) East Ham will be a Labour hold
Nice little ACCA there, Stodge. A tenner might net you all of 50p ;-)
You on Jezki? If not, do so soon. Will be shorter on the day.
There's huge demographic change in most of London. The Conservatives really need to start to win over more ethnic minority voters before they no longer have any marginals in London left to win. I don't how they go about this without alienating the traditional vote that hasn't gone to UKIP. Many ethnic minority voters should be natural Conservatives but it will take time before they start voting for the party. Meanwhile they should be going doing all they can to attract these voters. Like having fewer people from Eton on the front bench and recognising how policies like taking passports away from citizens without trial looks quite bad.
I have had a nibble on the reds here.
The demographics in many parts of London unify people against UKIP.
Ealing Central and Acton-will be close.It is a poor area but the neighbouring constituencies have high concentration of immigrants,so it is possible Blues may hold on those concerns.
Hendon-Was a Labour gain from May 2010.
I suggest Finchley and Golders Green may be a Labour gain as a surprise.Large Jewish population though well-off may root for Ed due to Jewish origin.
In the East Midlands I am expecting very few changes and nil in the 10 Leics seats.
Jacks ARSE is rarely far out.
Hopefully one of them will fall.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#London
Since UKIP reached about ~10% in May 2013 there been no change other than a Green/LD rebalancing.
YouGov
April 2014: LD 9%, Green 2%
May 2014: LD 11%, Green 2%
June 2014: LD 8%, Green 4%
Jan 2015: LD 7%, Green 8%
Feb 2015: LD 8%, Green 6%
March 2015: LD 7%, Green 5%
"Jacks ARSE is rarely far out."
I obviously bow to your greater knowledge of Jack's ARSE but as far as I know we have no evidence that his ARSE is any more accurate than your own. He was way out in the INDY ref and as far as I know during the last election it was just an unformed pimple.
His biggest fan is Easterross who has the rare distinction of being the only poster to be less accurate than me and Southam Observer put together!!
Tories will not gain Hampstead and Kilburn. Yes Hampstead is well off and has a few city millionaires but the middle class there is very liberal and Kilburn has a large ethnic minority vote. This is prime Ed Milliband territory.
H & U is prob UKIPs best London chance.. its not really London 2015 in terms of culture and demographic, its more like London 1970 so you can imagine UKIP will do well.. In my circle of friends and family I would say 70% are voting UKIP, including shop owners prepared to put posters in their window.. I think UKIP are 8/1... prob small value, they arc certainties to come 2nd
A girl I was seeing lives in Romford and she said her are UKIP posters in lots of houses round the posh part (Exhibition Estate Gidea Pk) My uncle lives there and having been a member of the Con club all his life, he told Andrew Rosindell last year he had lost his vote to UKIP.. alsdo a BIG wave of immigrants in Rommo, you go into Sports Direct and everyones speaking Polish, there is a Russian shop just opened etc, people might well have had enough.
Throw into that that three hospitals have been closed down recently, to be used as housing for East End social housing tenants, and the replacement, Queens, is in special measure and there have been a spate of robberies of patients
http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/crime-court/shocking_figures_reveal_allegations_of_crime_at_queen_s_hospital_1_3963788
Disgusting place, shabby treatment, in short a disgrace.. people are v unhappy about it
Dagenham and Rainham will probably stay Labour as there are barely any WWC people left there, same goes for Barking, which is a mixture of African, Eastern European and Asians with very few WWC.. I would expect UKIP to come 2nd in all 4 and maybe a 3/1 shot to win one
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2983871/Schoolgirls-abused-Banbury-grooming-gang-slags-not-victims-court-told.html
My ARSE was unrivalled in its accuracy in 2010 and the US affiliate ARSE BUTT also triumphed in the last two general elections across the pond.
The reason JackW is the undisputed TOTY on PB isn't because he issues forth predictions as truly awful as your good self.
Polls coming up tonight: Opinium/Observer, YouGov/Times and hearing possibly ComRes too. Reminder: pay attention to fieldwork dates! #GE2015
Ironically I thought the whole point of Dave ditching his traditional voters was to pick up people like these...
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.co.uk/2009/09/rural-battleground-seats-in-north-and.html?m=1
Under the exemption, introduced in 1976, cider-makers who produce fewer than 70 hectolitres a year – about 12,000 pints – do not have to pay duty. The National Association of Cider Makers calculates that this accounts for about 80% of the UK’s 480 cider-makers.
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2015/mar/07/craft-cider-eu-tax-threat
The ARSE also got the Eastleigh by election fairly close.
You were hardly unique in predicting two victories for Obama and the Tories being largest party in a hung parliament in 2010. And you never answered Roger's point about your indyref prediction, which IIRC was something like 61-39, ie. a fair way off and certainly not the most accurate on here. Your long-standing proclamation that "Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister" and your assertion today that the Tories are going to be net gainers of seats in 2015 are both highly likely to be proved wrong.
'and as far as I know during the last election it was just an unformed pimple.'
You obviously weren't paying attention,Rod Crosby was spot on and JackW was within a couple of seats.
Slightly metropolitan and student population.
'I suggest Finchley and Golders Green may be a Labour gain as a surprise.Large Jewish population though well-off may root for Ed due to Jewish origin.'
Do you think the reverse may be true in constituencies with large Muslim populations?
I predicted Obama to win the nomination from early and correctly nailed the state by state contests. In the election I also accurately predicted all swing states except Missouri. In 2012 save for Florida that I predicted as TCTC but for Romney. In the other swing states my accuracy was exceptional.
In the 2010 GE I not only predicted a hung parliament with the Conservatives as largest party but also to within one seat.
My McARSE prediction was, out of necessity, given a month out, and was picking up the trend to NO. The model would have moved to around 56.5/43.5 on the day, which I concede was 3 point adrift. The turnout model of 85% was spot on and I was advising PBers from 6 months out that turnout would be 80% plus.
Acting weird on BBC interview.
"You obviously weren't paying attention,Rod Crosby was spot on and JackW was within a couple of seats."
If you think Rod Crosby is the new Tory Messiah-following in the footsteps of Fitilass and Easterross-there's a lot of money to be made. His last prediction was something like 100% certainty of a Tory overall majority. What's more that was after 6000 twists of the Lambert and Butler wheel with Passing Cloud derivation (courtesy Compouter).
Jack's claim to fame was Obama. I don't recall his predictions for the 2010 election. Perhaps he can tell us his final seat projection?
"Shit what's Salmond on"
Probably
Loughborough is an interesting mix of University town (but an engineering and business orientated one); midlands light engineering and some surrounding villages.
I think Nicky Morgan is safe. The bookies have her as favourite too.
The extraordinary potential haul of Ukip “silver medals” – in an addition to a likely tally of half-a-dozen or so seats at Westminster – would represent a massive breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s anti-EU party, which failed to achieve even a single second place in 2010.
The analysis, conducted by Robert Ford at the University of Manchester for the Observer, suggests that the biggest threat to the established parties from Ukip will come in future local and national elections after May, once it has put down local roots and established itself in the minds of voters as a real alternative to the incumbent party.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/07/ukip-100-second-places-may-election-nigel-farage
Both those polls were ambiguous. The Tories win when the question is phrased one way, the LDs win when it is phrased in another way.
Sutton and Cheam
Table 4, p.4
"If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"
Con 36%, LD 26%
Table 7, p.7
"Thinking specifically about your own PARLIAMENTARY constituency at the next General Election and the candidates who are likely to stand FOR ELECTION TO WESTMINSTER there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?"
Con 27%, LD 45%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Sutton-Cheam-Full-tables-Sept-14.pdf
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Carshalton and Wallington
Table 4, p.4
"If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"
Con 30%, LD 25%
Table 7, p.7
"Thinking specifically about your own PARLIAMENTARY constituency at the next General Election and the candidates who are likely to stand FOR ELECTION TO WESTMINSTER there, which party's candidate do you think you will vote for in your own constituency?"
Con 23%, LD 43%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Carshalton-Wallington-poll-tables-Nov-14.pdf
(As usual DYOR)
The interesting thing is that the article indicates that UKIP will be on 14% in tonight's poll.
Better out than in as MikeK would say on some issues.
What a tiresome threesome you make. Salmond and his band of 30/40/50 SNP MPs will be laughing at you all the way to Westminster! Get used to it guys.
Saw a minute or two of Sky News. Constant bleating and viewing everything through the prism of the debates is not an attractive approach.
The question then becomes one of whether UKIP follow the Labour pattern and become the new normal or the SDP pattern and disappear before the next election.
I have no idea which of those is more likely.
Imagine we were all just endless drudges who toe a party line what fun would there be, we;d end up like Nicola Sturgeon.
This year's second place is next year's contender.
Hvae you three ever thought of why your weekends are so cold?
First, thanks to OGH and the team for putting up my random rantings and thanks for the generally positive response. I cannot believe I forgot Enfield North either - I would agree with most it looks a fairly certain Labour gain.
On the CON-LAB side I'm fairly confident Labour will recapture Hendon, Brentford & Isleworth and Ealing Central & Acton. Harrow East is very close while I expect Labour to pick up Croydon Central.
Battersea is on the fringes - YouGov suggests a CON hold but I was trying to find some value in what look to be some very cramped odds and I thought 11/4 for Labour had possibilities. The problem for Labour is there isn't much LD vote to squeeze though I would again note the residual Labour strength in that part of Wandsworth.
I don't share HHemmelig's optimistic assessment of LD chances in SW London. The Conservatives will throw the proverbial at both K&S and Twickenham and the Borough results last year weren't too bad for the Tories so 9/2 looked a sporting bet for Twickenham.
Apart from the two obvious LAB gains from LD (and I really don't know about OB&S), do I think any of the 2005 Conservative gains will revert to Labour ? In 2005 London voted 39-32-22 (LAB-CON-LD) so the current YouGov poll is a swing of 2.5% to Labour from there so you'd be tempted to think there could be some upside from the 44-22-8 seat split back then.
My prediction of 45-24-4 isn't far from that but I do accept if the YouGov numbers turn out to be an accurate reflection of votes in nine weeks time that some of the 2005 CON gains will be under threat though I struggle to see the likes of F&GG and Enfield Southgate changing hands.
Enfield North has always been in the Labour column but has moved between <500 TCTC and a <2500 majority.
As for Ed .... nuff said we disagree but I am correct :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
'What a tiresome threesome you make. Salmond and his band of 30/40/50 SNP MPs will be laughing at you all the way to Westminster! Get used to it guys."
Alex 'three dozen'. I can recommend some good restaurants. I understand they come down with quite an appetite.
What caused a major part of the electorate to get "switched on" at the last general election?
We can assume that the Tory party will know the answer, as they studied it extensively.
In addition, unlike in Kingston and Richmond, last year's local elections in Sutton saw the Conservatives lose ground on 2010 - although Timmo will try and offer some weak excuse, the truth is the Tories needed to do a lot better to be in with a serious chance.
You sound more like Bitter Together. And things ain't getting any better for you.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/24/green-party-labour-threat-2015-election-robert-ford
How many people think that Cameron is capable of getting a majority he couldn't get in 2010 in 2015 and how many people think that Milliband is capable full stop.
We're set for a hanging parliament and the 20 surviving Libs won't want to play with anyone, SF won't be there, the DUP will get six or seven, UKIP will be lucky to get that, leaving a minimum of 40 SNP/Plaid/Greens calling the shots.
Sounds fine to me.