politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

SLAB might as well give up and go home.

Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West

I'm on the SNP at 50/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith. Posts like yours are exquisite torture.

Before dumping all my life savings on it I have to keep reminding myself the Edinburgh North and Leith is more than just Leith. The North part of the name encompasses some of the most snobbish high class bits of Edinburgh.It's a weird constituency.

IIRC, the Telegraph journo (and inveterate Nat-basher) Alan Cochrane lives in the North constituency. Presumably in one of the areas you cite.

@afneil: Today's Scotsman: THE Scottish group of Labour MPs has demanded that Ed Miliband rules out any deal with the SNP after the general election.

Easterross said:

coolagorna said:

Terrible day for Cameron yesterday

Could be the entire game changer of the entire GE as
the debates story is set to dominate the headlines for a
few days and with a Sky News Poll showing 80% of people
say they are "less likely" to vote for a leader who refuses
to debate with his main opponent

I predict "Cross back over" in next weeks polls and
maybe "All over" for Dave" soon after if he doesnt agree to meet Mili
junior head to head and defend his record

Poor deluded fool. The electorate doesn't give a shit about debates. The debates derailed the last election because they took over and dominated the agenda. Good to see uppity journalists put back in their boxes.

One of the 20% obviously lol!

The significance of yesterday was that while we on the
left know that Cameron is weak, totally fake and the unattractive
combination of both.bully and coward....the leaders rating
polls that see Dave ahead of his party in popularity seemed
mystifyingly not to reflect this

I actually agree about the debates spoiling the campaign last
time and much prefer the out and about campaigning of Major 92
and Prezza "connecting" in 01 but thats not the point

All the public will see is Dave appearing unwilling to debate with
the man described as "hopeless" "a liability" and "a disaster"
by their daily rags and for a few....maybe enough to turn this
entire GE they will begin to realise just why......perhaps because Ed as Peters
Oborne and Hitchens have stated is a far more substantial
politician than PR man Dave has ever been or could ever be

coolagorna said:

Easterross said:

coolagorna said:

Terrible day for Cameron yesterday

Could be the entire game changer of the entire GE as
the debates story is set to dominate the headlines for a
few days and with a Sky News Poll showing 80% of people
say they are "less likely" to vote for a leader who refuses
to debate with his main opponent

I predict "Cross back over" in next weeks polls and
maybe "All over" for Dave" soon after if he doesnt agree to meet Mili
junior head to head and defend his record

Poor deluded fool. The electorate doesn't give a shit about debates. The debates derailed the last election because they took over and dominated the agenda. Good to see uppity journalists put back in their boxes.

One of the 20% obviously lol!

The significance of yesterday was that while we on the
left know that Cameron is weak, totally fake and the unattractive
combination of both.bully and coward....the leaders rating
polls that see Dave ahead of his party in popularity seemed
mystifyingly not to reflect this

I actually agree about the debates spoiling the campaign last
time and much prefer the out and about campaigning of Major 92
and Prezza "connecting" in 01 but thats not the point

All the public will see is Dave appearing unwilling to debate with
the man described as "hopeless" "a liability" and "a disaster"
by their daily rags and for a few....maybe enough to turn this
entire GE they will begin to realise just why......perhaps because Ed as Peters
Oborne and Hitchens have stated is a far more substantial
politician than PR man Dave has ever been or could ever be

I thought you were talking about your twitter feed , its bizarre..

SquareRoot said:

coolagorna said:

Easterross said:

coolagorna said:

Terrible day for Cameron yesterday

Could be the entire game changer of the entire GE as
the debates story is set to dominate the headlines for a
few days and with a Sky News Poll showing 80% of people
say they are "less likely" to vote for a leader who refuses
to debate with his main opponent

I predict "Cross back over" in next weeks polls and
maybe "All over" for Dave" soon after if he doesnt agree to meet Mili
junior head to head and defend his record

Poor deluded fool. The electorate doesn't give a shit about debates. The debates derailed the last election because they took over and dominated the agenda. Good to see uppity journalists put back in their boxes.

One of the 20% obviously lol!

The significance of yesterday was that while we on the
left know that Cameron is weak, totally fake and the unattractive
combination of both.bully and coward....the leaders rating
polls that see Dave ahead of his party in popularity seemed
mystifyingly not to reflect this

I actually agree about the debates spoiling the campaign last
time and much prefer the out and about campaigning of Major 92
and Prezza "connecting" in 01 but thats not the point

All the public will see is Dave appearing unwilling to debate with
the man described as "hopeless" "a liability" and "a disaster"
by their daily rags and for a few....maybe enough to turn this
entire GE they will begin to realise just why......perhaps because Ed as Peters
Oborne and Hitchens have stated is a far more substantial
politician than PR man Dave has ever been or could ever be

I thought you were talking about your twitter feed , its bizarre..

Eh? I am not even on Twitter

JackW said:

The PM should sack the advisors who have persuaded him to torpedo the debates.

It is a tactical and strategic error of considerable significance. The story will rumble on for weeks and deflect attention from the decent economic story the Coalition has to tell and also makes Cameron look weak against a Labour leader not rated by the public.

No Prime Minister should be allowed to dictate terms or effectively stop the debates. Cameron should be empty chaired if necessary and take the consequences.

Instead of empty-chairing the PM, could the broadcasters invite another Conservative MP to take his place and represent the party in order to maintain political balance? Ken Clarke perhaps, or Mad Nad.

OT -- HMG is running adverts to encourage us to switch energy suppliers and save £200. Is there an election coming up?

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Which table contains the published VI for the 8,000 poll?

I had a look for it on the wiki, but it isn't listed yet...

I can't see it going on, extracting VI figures from Lord A's tables probably constitutes "original research". Unless he publishes VI figures himself.

Dair said:

kle4 said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Because many voters are sensible centrists. It is how both Blair and Cameron became PM.

Centrism may take a while to come back to fashion but it will happen sooner as Ed departs stage left and the Tories stage right.

The most centrist party is the SNP

According to...? I cannot tell from that chart, which has the parties in areas I am not used to seeing (which is not to say it may not be correct/incorrect on that basis alone).

http://www.politicalcompass.org/

I'm surprised to see UKIP labeled as 'authoritarian'. I wouldn't have put them there.

logical_song said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Because many voters are sensible centrists. It is how both Blair and Cameron became PM.

Centrism may take a while to come back to fashion but it will happen sooner as Ed departs stage left and the Tories stage right.

The most centrist party is the SNP

Labour nearest to the DUP and BNP.
Tories and UKIP practically the same.

Liberal Democrats not particularly liberal, nor particularly democratic; allegedly.

logical_song said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Because many voters are sensible centrists. It is how both Blair and Cameron became PM.

Centrism may take a while to come back to fashion but it will happen sooner as Ed departs stage left and the Tories stage right.

The most centrist party is the SNP

Labour nearest to the DUP and BNP.
Tories and UKIP practically the same.

That graph is ridiculous.

anotherDave said:

Dair said:

kle4 said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Because many voters are sensible centrists. It is how both Blair and Cameron became PM.

Centrism may take a while to come back to fashion but it will happen sooner as Ed departs stage left and the Tories stage right.

The most centrist party is the SNP

According to...? I cannot tell from that chart, which has the parties in areas I am not used to seeing (which is not to say it may not be correct/incorrect on that basis alone).

http://www.politicalcompass.org/

I'm surprised to see UKIP labeled as 'authoritarian'. I wouldn't have put them there.

I'd like to know how they came about their scores for the different parties. Couldn't see a description on the site.

JackW said:

The PM should sack the advisors who have persuaded him to torpedo the debates.

It is a tactical and strategic error of considerable significance. The story will rumble on for weeks and deflect attention from the decent economic story the Coalition has to tell and also makes Cameron look weak against a Labour leader not rated by the public.

No Prime Minister should be allowed to dictate terms or effectively stop the debates. Cameron should be empty chaired if necessary and take the consequences.

Are political consultants not just useless but counter-productive? Cameron is advised to duck debates that would most likely cement his advantage over Miliband, whose own team have him out and about reading the Sun and eating bacon sandwiches as if -- even if he had managed to look normal doing it -- it would swing a single vote leftwards. In America, of course, Obama is in the White House because Hillary's team got the California rules wrong.

RobD said:

anotherDave said:

Dair said:

kle4 said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Because many voters are sensible centrists. It is how both Blair and Cameron became PM.

Centrism may take a while to come back to fashion but it will happen sooner as Ed departs stage left and the Tories stage right.

The most centrist party is the SNP

According to...? I cannot tell from that chart, which has the parties in areas I am not used to seeing (which is not to say it may not be correct/incorrect on that basis alone).

http://www.politicalcompass.org/

I'm surprised to see UKIP labeled as 'authoritarian'. I wouldn't have put them there.

I'd like to know how they came about their scores for the different parties. Couldn't see a description on the site.

No idea.

The test puts me almost perfectly 'centre', and I'm currently intending to vote UKIP.

https://www.politicalcompass.org/yourpoliticalcompass?ec=0.38&soc=0.21

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Because many voters are sensible centrists. It is how both Blair and Cameron became PM.

Centrism may take a while to come back to fashion but it will happen sooner as Ed departs stage left and the Tories stage right.

The most centrist party is the SNP

Apart from not standing in England, the SNP are way to the left of the centre of voting intention on that bizzare chart.

Interesting analysis of UKIP strategy:

‘Our aims are quite simple,’ says [Ukip’s election strategist ] Bruni-Lowe: ‘Get Nigel elected in South Thanet, win a good number of seats, and then come second in more than 100 northern constituencies.’ Finding a Westminster perch for the leader is the top priority. A few more seats would be nice, but Ukip’s aim is to position itself for the 2020 election. The bet is on Labour’s support dissolving in the north of England, as it is already doing in Scotland.<.i>

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9461352/as-the-election-nears-ukip-is-getting-serious-about-its-strategy/