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First .....again!0
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20
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Finds what?0
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Find nothing... By the looks of it...0
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18% swing Con - Greens
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distinctly uninteresting so far.0
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Amazed the Libdem numbers haven't moved more. These numbers are dynamite.0
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Have people got them then? I could have sworn I signed up but have nothing in my inbox.0
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With the election just weeks away why is Lord A still not polling with named candidates !!0
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Those polls aren't "as of today" - Con will already be ahead in High Peak / Norwich North.0
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Labour won't win Norwich North.0
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How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.0
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I believe Kennedy will hold on. Murphy will win also - by 5%.0
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Latest LARGER EICIPM0
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20% swings.. wowsers.0
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Voters want EICIPM?TGOHF said:How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.
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Ed plus Nicola - still short...bigjohnowls said:
Voters want EICIPM?TGOHF said:How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.
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Edinburgh SW being 13 percent SNP lead makes any Edinburgh seat with SNP odds against an immense bet.0
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Have to get a box to stand on in that case.TGOHF said:
Ed plus Nicola - still short...bigjohnowls said:
Voters want EICIPM?TGOHF said:How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.
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How is Dave getting to 323 on these numbersTGOHF said:
Ed plus Nicola - still short...bigjohnowls said:
Voters want EICIPM?TGOHF said:How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.
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Where are the Tories at in D&G?0
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Betfair have only suspended Edinburgh South West, all the other Edinburgh seats are open.0
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@MSmithsonPB: In quite a few Ashcroft LAB - CON marginals LAB in front with all giving voting intention. CON holding on greater certainty to vote0
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If Murphy is committed to the Scottish parliament why is he standing?surbiton said:I believe Kennedy will hold on. Murphy will win also - by 5%.
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Level.Casino_Royale said:Where are the Tories at in D&G?
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Tories worth a bet in D&G?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Dumfries-Galloway-Feb-15-Full-tables-LAM124A.pdf0 -
'56 of Scotland's 59 seats could go to the SNP'
Bah! - a mere flesh wound says Ed.0 -
How many seat(s) did Ashcroft predict the yellows would have?0
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YesTissue_Price said:Tories worth a bet in D&G?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Dumfries-Galloway-Feb-15-Full-tables-LAM124A.pdf0 -
Time for Labour to take the nuclear option and rule out any deal with the SNP if this is the true state of play.
Good results for Labour in High Peak and Norwich North, these are very far down their target list.0 -
Is The Good Lord handing down this information to the Masses right now? You know like GOD giving the Ten Commandments to Moses?0
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I think they are both toast - the SNP will now unleash their ground forces in both seats. I wouldn't be surprised if Murphy gives some serious consideration to standing down on the basis of keeping himself for Holyrood 2016 - he's already stated he won't be both an MP and MSP by May 2016, at least he would get a list seat in Holyrood.surbiton said:I believe Kennedy will hold on. Murphy will win also - by 5%.
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Increased my stake on Edinburgh North&Leith and dabbled with Edinburgh South0
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I would prefer a left wing coalition to one with EICIPM governing alone myself. SNP will hopefully result in a more radical GovernmentTGOHF said:
Ed plus Nicola - still short...bigjohnowls said:
Voters want EICIPM?TGOHF said:How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.
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Charlie Kennedy is getting a 10% personal boost, still behind 5%0
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Great. On them at 9/1 I think.Pulpstar said:
Level.Casino_Royale said:Where are the Tories at in D&G?
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UDI from the SNP on the 8th of May?0
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Right after a majority voted against independence?TheScreamingEagles said:UDI from the SNP on the 8th of May?
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Blinking Norah. I've recently tried to temper my optimism about the SNP, but this polling makes that very hard to do.0
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was 6/1 before betfair suspended the market.TheScreamingEagles said:
YesTissue_Price said:Tories worth a bet in D&G?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Dumfries-Galloway-Feb-15-Full-tables-LAM124A.pdf0 -
Oh no sorry tha\ts in their own seat, they are 4% behind in Dumfries and GallowayCasino_Royale said:
Great. On them at 9/1 I think.Pulpstar said:
Level.Casino_Royale said:Where are the Tories at in D&G?
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I've taken a punt of Conservatives in Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk0
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Tories Most Seats really should shorten on this - another 5 or so on the SNP line0
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Ed Miliband is Elmer Fudd!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's worth bearing in mind that the polling in the Tory marginals is 3-4 weeks old. If there's been a swing to the Conservatives since then, they would all be holds.Artist said:Time for Labour to take the nuclear option and rule out any deal with the SNP if this is the true state of play.
Good results for Labour in High Peak and Norwich North, these are very far down their target list.
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Wabbits!Casino_Royale said:
Ed Miliband is Elmer Fudd!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So the state of play for the last few months is still holding it seems, Labour doing just enough to win were it not for the collapse in Scotland muddying the waters.0
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And good show everyone who was saying pile on SNP in Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine back when they were still better than evens.0
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@keiranpedley: Key quote from @LordAshcroft tonight 'some of the results from my polling ... were very close, and some of them are now several months old'0
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Undeniably. All my squeamishness yesterday seems to have been just faint-hearted nonsense. Though I stand by what I said about the chances of the SNP getting more than 22 seats being better than two in three.Pulpstar said:
This polling is good news for my Livingston & Stirling bets I reckon.antifrank said:Blinking Norah. I've recently tried to temper my optimism about the SNP, but this polling makes that very hard to do.
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Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
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Just stuck a few more tweets in
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I'm wading through the tables as we speak.JohnLilburne said:Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
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I don't doubt some small numbers in their ranks might want to go that route regardless of the result of the IndyRef, but cooler heads should make them see that it isn't necessary. If the SNP get that kind of dominance in Westminster seats, there's a good chance the Union is dead anyway, though not a certainty - but given how everything has worked out so well for the SNP since the IndyRef failure, I cannot be optimistic that the dominance will reduce quickly, which is needed for the Union side to pick themselves up.RobD said:
Right after a majority voted against independence?TheScreamingEagles said:UDI from the SNP on the 8th of May?
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Ashcroft saying that based on all his old marginal polls, Labour will gain 41 seats from the Tories. Given how the landscape and polls have moved since then, and accounting for named candidates, I expect the true current figure to be around 30 gains.
Not good enough. Tories need to claw back at least another 10.0 -
If I read the understanding of those at the presentation, Lord A thinks the polling has moved to the Tories since the last time he polled, so the Lab gains in the past, are no longer Lab gains.0
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Ashcroft points out that swing to SNP is actually higher in "no" areas, it would #GE20150
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This really is the sort of polling that could see all 3 leaders out - the SNP simply will not prop up the Conservatives but if Ed ends up on 260 seats he is surely toast.0
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All Edinburgh markets have now been suspended by Betfair. Sorry if you missed out.0
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I can't see the wood for the trees.0
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There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont VotesJohnLilburne said:Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
Doing so gives roughly
Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .0 -
SNP 6 !!!MarkSenior said:
There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont VotesJohnLilburne said:Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
Doing so gives roughly
Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .0 -
Interesting. Could the SNP demand Miliband go as a price for propping up Labour? I've no idea where we are headed, maybe another 2015 general election. The bizarre thing is as you state that on these kind of numbers the knives could be out for all three party leaders. The mood of late has suggested that if Cameron could head up another coalition then his party would back him. But would they? He's never had much cash in the bank.Pulpstar said:This really is the sort of polling that could see all 3 leaders out - the SNP simply will not prop up the Conservatives but if Ed ends up on 260 seats he is surely toast.
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You can get 2/1 on the SNP in Ross Skye & Lochaber with William Hill, for those who believe that the odds will change when the bookies wake up.0
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Farron and Nigel Dodds could hold the power.FrankBooth said:
Interesting. Could the SNP demand Miliband go as a price for propping up Labour? I've no idea where we are headed, maybe another 2015 general election. The bizarre thing is as you state that on these kind of numbers the knives could be out for all three party leaders. The mood of late has suggested that if Cameron could head up another coalition then his party would back him. But would they? He's never had much cash in the bank.Pulpstar said:This really is the sort of polling that could see all 3 leaders out - the SNP simply will not prop up the Conservatives but if Ed ends up on 260 seats he is surely toast.
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Delighted to see it looks as though David Mundell will repel the Yessers. If Ashcroft has a TIE then he should be able to hold on.0
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NO !!!!!!! The 6 also includes Plaid , BNP and Some Other Party hence the mostly .Pulpstar said:
SNP 6 !!!MarkSenior said:
There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont VotesJohnLilburne said:Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
Doing so gives roughly
Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .0 -
Mike Smithson is tweeting as tho this poll is a result. Its nonsense. Def showing his anti tory stance!!0
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Removing the DK/WNV/Refused from Q1. I make it
Lab 34%
Con 30%
UKIP 18%
Grn 6%
LD 6%
SNP 4%
Other 1%
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The reallocation of don't knows would usually narrow the gap by c2%.MarkSenior said:
There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont VotesJohnLilburne said:Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
Doing so gives roughly
Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .
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Well Carmichael seems safe enough on these numbers.
I err think....0 -
Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet0
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If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border0
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I don't think you'd shed too many tears if these polls eventuated as reality on 8 May.TheScreamingEagles said:Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
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Is it possible to move the Pandas out of Scotland somehow perhaps? Nullify the bet?TheScreamingEagles said:Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
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I wouldn't. I'm so glad you delurked from your sabbatical last summer.antifrank said:
I don't think you'd shed too many tears if these polls eventuated as reality on 8 May.TheScreamingEagles said:Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
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Don't know about his stance but here's a tweet of his:SquareRoot said:Mike Smithson is tweeting as tho this poll is a result. Its nonsense. Def showing his anti tory stance!!
LAB & CON currently on 272 seats each according to Lord Ashcroft polling
Here's what Ashcroft says:
And of the 59 Conservative-held seats I have polled in which Labour are the principal challengers, I have found Labour ahead in……forty-one. That – and this is not a forecast – would give Labour and the Conservatives 272 seats each in the House of Commons.
But some of the results from my polling in those 41 seats were very close, and some of them are now several months old.
"currently."
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What when England and Wales will move even closer to withdrawing from the EU and rUK will have to put up strong border controls to ensure immigrants to Scotland under Scotland's liberal immigration policy are not just using it as an access route to rUK?Big_G_NorthWales said:If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
And thats not even mentioning the finacial settlements.
Divorces almost invariably get messy!0 -
Not in this case , it would boost the Lib Dems a touch and perhaps the Conservatives by less than half a % . See Table 1 Page 2Sean_F said:
The reallocation of don't knows would usually narrow the gap by c2%.MarkSenior said:
There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont VotesJohnLilburne said:Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
Doing so gives roughly
Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .
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Just For Fun
YouGov Prediction:
Con/Lab Tie!0 -
Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.TheScreamingEagles said:Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
Mundell probably holds...0 -
Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.Big_G_NorthWales said:If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
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It is not going to be easy but if it is the will of the Scots then it has to be respected just as an exit from Europe would have to be respected if a referendum voted to leaveHengists_Gift said:
What when England and Wales will move even closer to withdrawing from the EU and rUK will have to put up strong border controls to ensure immigrants to Scotland under Scotland's liberal immigration policy are not just using it as an access route to rUK?Big_G_NorthWales said:If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
And thats not even mentioning the finacial settlements.
Divorces almost invariably get messy!0 -
Yeah, I think he does, there's enough tactical unionist votes out there.Pulpstar said:
Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.TheScreamingEagles said:Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
Mundell probably holds...0 -
Mundell and Murphy to go?
On my look at the Ashcroft data the SNP are slightly ahead in both seats. What are the odds against a Nat clean sweep?0 -
What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.Big_G_NorthWales said:If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
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Even worse is people are on their way to the pay out window to collect their winnings, it's utter nonsense.SquareRoot said:Mike Smithson is tweeting as tho this poll is a result. Its nonsense. Def showing his anti tory stance!!
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Ok, I'm prepared to say the Tories will win the most votes and most seats.0
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I won't be, the way they have carried on I am sick to death of the grasping ponces.kle4 said:
What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.Big_G_NorthWales said:If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
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The SNP are cannier than that. They know that 'the people' are tired of politicians squabbling and playing games so they'll largely behave themselves I'm sure whilst perhaps subtly doing the odd thing to undermine the union.kle4 said:
What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.Big_G_NorthWales said:If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
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Welcome to my world!TheScreamingEagles said:Ok, I'm prepared to say the Tories will win the most votes and most seats.
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Excellent analysis of the situation to come if SNP take anything like the seats projectedkle4 said:
What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.FrankBooth said:
Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.Big_G_NorthWales said:If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
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ARF!TheScreamingEagles said:Ok, I'm prepared to say the Tories will win the most votes and most seats.
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