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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Huppert on twitter re: the cycling debate today.

    "Strong turnout for the #cyclingdebate with 140 people ready to hear 3 main parties outline their plans for cycling "

    UKIP not showing up ?

    I don't think they were invited.

    "With the General Election fast approaching, the UK Cycling Alliance - which includes CTC - has invited cycling leads in political parties ... Lead transport spokespeople from the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrat political parties will debate their manifesto points on cycling and its infrastructure at the first ever ‘Big Cycling Debate.' "

    http://www.ctc.org.uk/news/20150219-big-cycling-debate-–-chance-participate

    http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/uk-cycling-alliance-organise-first-big-cycling-debate-155543

    I'll bet the Greens were miffed!
    Is that the follow up to the debate last October in the House Of Commons?

    According to this less than 20 MPs turned up last time......

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/active/recreational-cycling/11169000/MPs-wont-take-cyclists-seriously-until-they-pay-tax.html
    Seems to more of a pressure group thing. Mumsnet for people in yellow raincoats.

    I'm not at all sure that cycling should feature in the election debate on national transport policy. Shouldn't that be left to local gov't?
    Who is wearing a yellow raincoat ?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MaxPB
    A small proportion of that spend is for the study of bird flight paths to mitigate the impact before they get planning permission.
    A frivolous waste of profit, but there you go, not everyone has your hard headed business sense.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2015

    Especially us Liberal Metropolitan Posho Elites.

    You are clearly a tortured soul. No self-respecting liberal elite would be seen dead in a TGI Fridays, or an out-of-town multiplex for that matter. At least you didn't admit to 10-pin bowling.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited March 2015

    Anorak said:


    [btw, what's your avatar/icon? didn't you used to have a hat?]

    I still have the hat, though haven't worn it in ages.

    My pic now is a crappy cartoon I drew of an unidentified person covered in a pile (or pyramid!) of peas, holding out a sign saying "peas be upon me"
    Do you work for Hummus Bros? http://www.hbros.co.uk/tshirt

    Great place, although it's best if you're outdoors for the rest of the day.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,837

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Please - have you actually read the piece not the spin ?

    "Let’s say the Tories get more votes and Labour win more seats, which is quite possible, we may think that morally we should put the Tories in but they won’t have enough seats, we won’t have a choice. Last time round, us plus Labour was 11 short of a majority of one, so a majority where we’d have had to rely on Jeremy Corbyn voting through the Budget, things like that, for instance, so 11 short even of that level of a majority, so it wasn’t an option.”

    Farron believes (with some justification if the polls are accurate) that even if the Conservatives are marginally ahead on votes they will be so far adrift on seats as to make a Coalition as unlikely as was any arrangement with Labour in 2010.

    That is NOT saying the LDs will "have to side" with Labour - merely that the arithmetic will probably preclude siding with the Conservatives.

    If, on the other hand, we get a result akin to 2010, there's no reason why the Coalition couldn't continue.




  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Huppert on twitter re: the cycling debate today.

    "Strong turnout for the #cyclingdebate with 140 people ready to hear 3 main parties outline their plans for cycling "

    UKIP not showing up ?

    I don't think they were invited.

    "With the General Election fast approaching, the UK Cycling Alliance - which includes CTC - has invited cycling leads in political parties ... Lead transport spokespeople from the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrat political parties will debate their manifesto points on cycling and its infrastructure at the first ever ‘Big Cycling Debate.' "

    http://www.ctc.org.uk/news/20150219-big-cycling-debate-–-chance-participate

    http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/uk-cycling-alliance-organise-first-big-cycling-debate-155543

    I'll bet the Greens were miffed!
    Is that the follow up to the debate last October in the House Of Commons?

    According to this less than 20 MPs turned up last time......

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/active/recreational-cycling/11169000/MPs-wont-take-cyclists-seriously-until-they-pay-tax.html
    Seems to more of a pressure group thing. Mumsnet for people in yellow raincoats.

    I'm not at all sure that cycling should feature in the election debate on national transport policy. Shouldn't that be left to local gov't?
    Who is wearing a yellow raincoat ?
    I'm hoping to see audience photos of a mass of yellow jackets and head torches, with a significant sub-set of fairtrade-organic-wool hats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,642
    Also, Dave needs to move on defence spending. Recommit to Trident, commit to the 2% target for the next Parliament and begin increasing the size of our conventional and unified forces. The equipment budget has grown too much at the expense of conventional forces. What's the use of having all of this fancy equipment without the means to project it. Our military is becoming a glorified police force under the current government and it hasn't gone unnoticed amongst our partners in NATO.
  • Anorak said:

    Especially us Liberal Metropolitan Posho Elites.

    You are clearly a tortured soul. No self-respecting liberal elite would be seen dead in a TGI Fridays, or an out-of-town multiplex for that matter. At least you didn't admit to 10-pin bowling.
    I've been ten pin bowling there as well. Since I were a lad, I've been visiting here.

    This is finest cinema in the country, has twenty top screens, including the UK's largest IMAX screen. Also has a decent clientèle so no chavs or plebs here.

    And I can see as many movies as I want to, all for £19.40 a month.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Huppert on twitter re: the cycling debate today.

    "Strong turnout for the #cyclingdebate with 140 people ready to hear 3 main parties outline their plans for cycling "

    UKIP not showing up ?

    A comment on the CTC link suggests OfCom's major/minor party ruling is not helping UKIP here.

    "In organising the debate the UK Cycling Alliance has liaised extensively with the Electoral Commission to ensure that we adhere to the strict rules in the run up to a General Election and to ensure that we fulfill our aim for the event which is to put the main UK parties on the spot about what they will do to improve conditions for cycling if they get into government in May.

    There are very strict Electoral Commission rules about which political parties should be invited to an election debate and by including one minor party we would have to include all others that have representation in the UK Parliament, potentially 11 plus parties, which would make an audience participative debate in the space of one our hour impossible to manage.

    While we appreciate that "minor" parties should be included at the debate and have had one request so far, we are limited in how we can shape the event. Including one additional party alongside the three parties with the largest representations in Westminster alone isn’t an option.

    However, we will be asking each party to send us their main points and will show this on our websites to ensure that voters from across the country are aware of party positions on active travel."

    http://www.ctc.org.uk/news/20150219-big-cycling-debate-–-chance-participate
    1) Ofcom rules only apply to TV and Radio so why they have referred to them I have no idea
    2) We are not yet in the campaign period so they do not apply
    3) I thought UKIP have major party status anyway
    4) Ofcom rules requires that all major parties be given an opportunity to respond on an issue
    5) However in reality I do not think Ofcom rules apply to this. I suspect Electoral commission guidelines regarding Hustings do (see Page 7):

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/105946/sp-hustings-rp-npc-ca.pdf

    6) Those guidelines allow organisations to pick and choose who they invite.

    That explanation sounds like nonsense....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,384
    edited March 2015
    stodge said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Please - have you actually read the piece not the spin ?

    "Let’s say the Tories get more votes and Labour win more seats, which is quite possible, we may think that morally we should put the Tories in but they won’t have enough seats, we won’t have a choice. Last time round, us plus Labour was 11 short of a majority of one, so a majority where we’d have had to rely on Jeremy Corbyn voting through the Budget, things like that, for instance, so 11 short even of that level of a majority, so it wasn’t an option.”

    Farron believes (with some justification if the polls are accurate) that even if the Conservatives are marginally ahead on votes they will be so far adrift on seats as to make a Coalition as unlikely as was any arrangement with Labour in 2010.

    That is NOT saying the LDs will "have to side" with Labour - merely that the arithmetic will probably preclude siding with the Conservatives.

    If, on the other hand, we get a result akin to 2010, there's no reason why the Coalition couldn't continue.




    He should rule out putting into power a party that finished second in share of the vote.

    Have you and he forgotten the Democrat part of Liberal Democrat?
  • Let's assume Dave and Ed both get around 280 seats +/- and that the yellow peril and nits get around 30 each +/- what then happens? And I mean what then happens to the markets and Sterling not who gets to be PM. The pound is awful strong right now but I can't see that surviving May if things pan out as every poll suggests they will. We're in for a period of political chaos - and that can't be good for the FTSE of the pound I'd have thought.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,905

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    YouGov Sunday Times asked a "would consider voting for / would not consider voting for." question. The parties fall into two clear groups.

    LD +23% / -71% (biggest potential gains from Con)

    p.4
    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/42tha4tjwo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-270215.pdf


    EDIT
    "1 in 3 voters might vote UKIP" was from ComRes. I think YouGov have always been around 1 in 4.
    I suspect, it is your activists and candidates that is likely drive away support.

    Polling shows that UKIP are considered the most extreme, least fit to govern, and have candidates more likely to have racist/extreme views.
    In the recent ComRes/ITV poll the anti-UKIP sentiment looked more like class prejudice than anything to do with UKIP's candidates.


    Indeed after a couple of tame urban liberal academics have been poncing around the country for nearly two years peddling propaganda that UKIP voters are 'old white thick and poor'.

    The level of sneering from the Torygraph and other Tory propaganda outlets (not to mention the usual urban liberal suspects) was stomach churning. It was clearly a dog whistle that these were people 'not like them'.
    UKIP seem to slag each other off quite well without any "urban liberal suspects", for example:
    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275
    So you chose to ignore my other post about 'unguarded comments' so you could link that redundant observation anyway. I would have picked the original candidate for Clacton myself. I thought he did a particularly good job of showing himself up for no good purpose. You are not very good at this are you?

    If you like I could link all the Tory stuff slagging off Cameron, the Labour stuff slagging off Miliband or the Libdem stuff slagging off Clegg if you like? However there are few things more verminous than urban liberal snobbery and their co-ordinated attacks on other parts of society. It is a disease that needs to be snuffed out!
    God, I don't have to spend all my time on here reading your posts do I?
    Genuinely missed it.
    This is what UKIP is like in my area:
    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:


    [btw, what's your avatar/icon? didn't you used to have a hat?]

    I still have the hat, though haven't worn it in ages.

    My pic now is a crappy cartoon I drew of an unidentified person covered in a pile (or pyramid!) of peas, holding out a sign saying "peas be upon me"
    Do you work for Hummus Bros? http://www.hbros.co.uk/tshirt

    Great place, although it's best if you're outdoors for the rest of the day.
    Ha! No, but I did once invent a dish called "whirled peas by beet in the meat" (pea and mint pesto with a lamb steak stuffed with a spicy beetroot relish)
  • Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,905
    @Hengists_Gift

    God, I don't have to spend all my time on here reading your posts do I?
    Genuinely missed it.
    This is what UKIP is like in my area:
    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275

    Apologies for duff editing.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Huppert on twitter re: the cycling debate today.

    "Strong turnout for the #cyclingdebate with 140 people ready to hear 3 main parties outline their plans for cycling "

    UKIP not showing up ?

    I don't think they were invited.

    "With the General Election fast approaching, the UK Cycling Alliance - which includes CTC - has invited cycling leads in political parties ... Lead transport spokespeople from the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrat political parties will debate their manifesto points on cycling and its infrastructure at the first ever ‘Big Cycling Debate.' "

    http://www.ctc.org.uk/news/20150219-big-cycling-debate-–-chance-participate

    http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/uk-cycling-alliance-organise-first-big-cycling-debate-155543

    I'll bet the Greens were miffed!
    Is that the follow up to the debate last October in the House Of Commons?

    According to this less than 20 MPs turned up last time......

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/active/recreational-cycling/11169000/MPs-wont-take-cyclists-seriously-until-they-pay-tax.html
    Seems to more of a pressure group thing. Mumsnet for people in yellow raincoats.

    I'm not at all sure that cycling should feature in the election debate on national transport policy. Shouldn't that be left to local gov't?
    Who is wearing a yellow raincoat ?
    I'm hoping to see audience photos of a mass of yellow jackets and head torches, with a significant sub-set of fairtrade-organic-wool hats.
    I'd guess my local cycling club would have more UKIP than Lib Dem voters amongst them judging by Facebook feeds ;)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Huppert on twitter re: the cycling debate today.

    "Strong turnout for the #cyclingdebate with 140 people ready to hear 3 main parties outline their plans for cycling "

    UKIP not showing up ?

    A comment on the CTC link suggests OfCom's major/minor party ruling is not helping UKIP here.

    "In organising the debate the UK Cycling Alliance has liaised extensively with the Electoral Commission to ensure that we adhere to the strict rules in the run up to a General Election and to ensure that we fulfill our aim for the event which is to put the main UK parties on the spot about what they will do to improve conditions for cycling if they get into government in May.

    There are very strict Electoral Commission rules about which political parties should be invited to an election debate and by including one minor party we would have to include all others that have representation in the UK Parliament, potentially 11 plus parties, which would make an audience participative debate in the space of one our hour impossible to manage.

    While we appreciate that "minor" parties should be included at the debate and have had one request so far, we are limited in how we can shape the event. Including one additional party alongside the three parties with the largest representations in Westminster alone isn’t an option.

    However, we will be asking each party to send us their main points and will show this on our websites to ensure that voters from across the country are aware of party positions on active travel."

    http://www.ctc.org.uk/news/20150219-big-cycling-debate-–-chance-participate
    1) Ofcom rules only apply to TV and Radio so why they have referred to them I have no idea
    2) We are not yet in the campaign period so they do not apply
    3) I thought UKIP have major party status anyway
    4) Ofcom rules requires that all major parties be given an opportunity to respond on an issue
    5) However in reality I do not think Ofcom rules apply to this. I suspect Electoral commission guidelines regarding Hustings do (see Page 7):

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/105946/sp-hustings-rp-npc-ca.pdf

    6) Those guidelines allow organisations to pick and choose who they invite.

    That explanation sounds like nonsense....
    "If the cost per party is more than £500, the organiser is making a donation to the party."

    Be interesting to see if that one shows up the Electoral Commission donation figures.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212

    stodge said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Please - have you actually read the piece not the spin ?

    "Let’s say the Tories get more votes and Labour win more seats, which is quite possible, we may think that morally we should put the Tories in but they won’t have enough seats, we won’t have a choice. Last time round, us plus Labour was 11 short of a majority of one, so a majority where we’d have had to rely on Jeremy Corbyn voting through the Budget, things like that, for instance, so 11 short even of that level of a majority, so it wasn’t an option.”

    Farron believes (with some justification if the polls are accurate) that even if the Conservatives are marginally ahead on votes they will be so far adrift on seats as to make a Coalition as unlikely as was any arrangement with Labour in 2010.

    That is NOT saying the LDs will "have to side" with Labour - merely that the arithmetic will probably preclude siding with the Conservatives.

    If, on the other hand, we get a result akin to 2010, there's no reason why the Coalition couldn't continue.




    He should rule out putting into power a party that finished second in share of the vote.

    Have you and he forgotten the Democrat part of Liberal Democrat?
    From the point of view of striking the best deal, the sensible thing must be to keep one's options open.

    If I were a Lib Dem, I wouldn't strike any deal that didn't include PR for local elections.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Patrick,

    "Works for me!"

    Well said, I divide the fauna of the world into two groups ... edible and non edible (although the latter group dwindles if you're very hungry).

    In fact, I do the same to the flora now I come to think about it. Can you eat the Amazonian rainforest? Can you just save the edible bits?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Patrick said:

    Let's assume Dave and Ed both get around 280 seats +/- and that the yellow peril and nits get around 30 each +/- what then happens? And I mean what then happens to the markets and Sterling not who gets to be PM. The pound is awful strong right now but I can't see that surviving May if things pan out as every poll suggests they will. We're in for a period of political chaos - and that can't be good for the FTSE of the pound I'd have thought.

    Correct.

    Amazingly, there is still time to take corrective action. I was expecting the financial markets to wake up to the risks at around the end of 2014.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Julian Huppert on twitter re: the cycling debate today.

    "Strong turnout for the #cyclingdebate with 140 people ready to hear 3 main parties outline their plans for cycling "

    UKIP not showing up ?

    A comment on the CTC link suggests OfCom's major/minor party ruling is not helping UKIP here.

    "In organising the debate the UK Cycling Alliance has liaised extensively with the Electoral Commission to ensure that we adhere to the strict rules in the run up to a General Election and to ensure that we fulfill our aim for the event which is to put the main UK parties on the spot about what they will do to improve conditions for cycling if they get into government in May.

    There are very strict Electoral Commission rules about which political parties should be invited to an election debate and by including one minor party we would have to include all others that have representation in the UK Parliament, potentially 11 plus parties, which would make an audience participative debate in the space of one our hour impossible to manage.

    While we appreciate that "minor" parties should be included at the debate and have had one request so far, we are limited in how we can shape the event. Including one additional party alongside the three parties with the largest representations in Westminster alone isn’t an option.

    However, we will be asking each party to send us their main points and will show this on our websites to ensure that voters from across the country are aware of party positions on active travel."

    http://www.ctc.org.uk/news/20150219-big-cycling-debate-–-chance-participate
    1) Ofcom rules only apply to TV and Radio so why they have referred to them I have no idea
    2) We are not yet in the campaign period so they do not apply
    3) I thought UKIP have major party status anyway
    4) Ofcom rules requires that all major parties be given an opportunity to respond on an issue
    5) However in reality I do not think Ofcom rules apply to this. I suspect Electoral commission guidelines regarding Hustings do (see Page 7):

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/105946/sp-hustings-rp-npc-ca.pdf

    6) Those guidelines allow organisations to pick and choose who they invite.

    That explanation sounds like nonsense....

    Postscript 7) And the Electoral Commission will have absolutely nothing to do with the Ofcom rules. There are very strong demarcation lines between them.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Julian Huppert on twitter re: the cycling debate today.

    "Strong turnout for the #cyclingdebate with 140 people ready to hear 3 main parties outline their plans for cycling "

    UKIP not showing up ?

    I don't think they were invited.

    "With the General Election fast approaching, the UK Cycling Alliance - which includes CTC - has invited cycling leads in political parties ... Lead transport spokespeople from the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrat political parties will debate their manifesto points on cycling and its infrastructure at the first ever ‘Big Cycling Debate.' "

    http://www.ctc.org.uk/news/20150219-big-cycling-debate-–-chance-participate

    http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/uk-cycling-alliance-organise-first-big-cycling-debate-155543

    I'll bet the Greens were miffed!
    Is that the follow up to the debate last October in the House Of Commons?

    According to this less than 20 MPs turned up last time......

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/active/recreational-cycling/11169000/MPs-wont-take-cyclists-seriously-until-they-pay-tax.html
    Seems to more of a pressure group thing. Mumsnet for people in yellow raincoats.

    I'm not at all sure that cycling should feature in the election debate on national transport policy. Shouldn't that be left to local gov't?
    Who is wearing a yellow raincoat ?
    I'm hoping to see audience photos of a mass of yellow jackets and head torches, with a significant sub-set of fairtrade-organic-wool hats.
    I'd guess my local cycling club would have more UKIP than Lib Dem voters amongst them judging by Facebook feeds ;)
    Clearly a splendid example of civil society. :-)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Smarmeron said:

    @MaxPB
    A small proportion of that spend is for the study of bird flight paths to mitigate the impact before they get planning permission.
    A frivolous waste of profit, but there you go, not everyone has your hard headed business sense.

    Why don't they just do one major study on the question whether you can make omelettes without breaking eggs, and rely on that in future cases?

    Alternatively, generate electricity the way God intended by digging up coal and burning the bloody stuff.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Ishmael_X said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @MaxPB
    A small proportion of that spend is for the study of bird flight paths to mitigate the impact before they get planning permission.
    A frivolous waste of profit, but there you go, not everyone has your hard headed business sense.

    Why don't they just do one major study on the question whether you can make omelettes without breaking eggs
    I've tried this. It didn't end well.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677

    Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    In case you missed it, my pre-season thoughts on F1 2015 are up here:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/testing-thoughts.html
  • Patrick said:

    Let's assume Dave and Ed both get around 280 seats +/- and that the yellow peril and nits get around 30 each +/- what then happens? And I mean what then happens to the markets and Sterling not who gets to be PM. The pound is awful strong right now but I can't see that surviving May if things pan out as every poll suggests they will. We're in for a period of political chaos - and that can't be good for the FTSE of the pound I'd have thought.

    Correct.

    Amazingly, there is still time to take corrective action. I was expecting the financial markets to wake up to the risks at around the end of 2014.
    For me the easiest way to sort Sterling is to buy gold. Maybe time to buy another load...
  • Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
    You're voting Tory, we've agreed on it.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Ishmael_X
    Sod the environment, we need to make money so we can pass on an inheritance to our offspring so they will be able to cope with the state of the world we have left them.
    BTW? where do you suggest we dig this coal up from? Or do we import the cheap soft stuff from abroad?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
    Any lurkers in Elmet/Rothwell, Portsmouth North or Kingswood should definitely vote Conservative btw.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,384
    edited March 2015
    @portraitinflesh: Something awfully familiar about this...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GjqtFXEAAn0XW.jpg
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    Seriously, why do they bother with these bill-boards?

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Naz Shah is the Labour candidate in Bradford West. She got less than 15 votes in the original selection.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,837


    He should rule out putting into power a party that finished second in share of the vote.

    Have you and he forgotten the Democrat part of Liberal Democrat?

    That's absurd. Why would the Party do that ? If Labour finished one vote behind the Conservatives nationally, that would exclude them from office and presumably the same if the Conservatives finished one vote behind Labour.

    Given all parties are minorities in form or another, I don't understand the second part of your comment at all.


  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,314
    Dair said:



    Holy hell, you're still going to persist after your direct lie was caught?

    You said "I never at any time said that leaving the EU would give a BoP surplus." Today.

    You said "The balance of payments deficit we have with the EU of over £80 billion a year is a fact. That we would have a balance of payments surplus were it not for our trade with the EU is a fact." Yesterday.

    There is no spin on that, there is no mis-interpretation. You directly lied and contradicted yourself.

    Nope there is just a complete inability of you to understand English. At no time did I say leaving the EU would make that BoP deficit disappear. You just made that up. My point,which I have made many times before on here and which you seem to be the only person incapable of understanding is that membership of the EU had hindered rather than helped our BoP deficit and that we have seen it worsen substantially whilst our BoP with the rest of the world has improved. I have used real numbers to illustrate that whilst you have simply plucked figures out of the sir with no basis in fact. In short I am consistent and use facts to back up my position whilst you make stuff up and use it to smear people.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    @portraitinflesh: Something awfully familiar about this...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GjqtFXEAAn0XW.jpg

    Why are you retweeting old posters from the 80s ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677

    Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
    You're voting Tory, we've agreed on it.
    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian :)
  • Pulpstar said:

    @portraitinflesh: Something awfully familiar about this...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GjqtFXEAAn0XW.jpg

    Why are you retweeting old posters from the 80s ?
    I thought it was a new one?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @GIN1138
    "Seriously, why do they bother with these bill-boards?"

    Usually because some PR guy convinces them that his cousin can do a fantastic vote pulling ad.
    The market economy?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
    Any lurkers in Elmet/Rothwell, Portsmouth North or Kingswood should definitely vote Conservative btw.
    Nope. Portsmouth North lurkers should definitely vote UKIP. It would probably be a good idea for them to convince their neighbours too!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Pulpstar said:

    @portraitinflesh: Something awfully familiar about this...

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_GjqtFXEAAn0XW.jpg

    Why are you retweeting old posters from the 80s ?
    I thought it was a new one?
    It's dire.
  • Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
    You're voting Tory, we've agreed on it.
    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian :)
    No more Depeche Mode themed nighthawks if you don't vote Tory.

    I have altered the deal, pray I don't alter it any further.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034

    Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
    You're voting Tory, we've agreed on it.
    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian :)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmX2VzsB25s
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Patrick said:

    For me the easiest way to sort Sterling is to buy gold. Maybe time to buy another load...

    Well, that's more a bet on gold than on sterling, and historically gold has been a rather poor hedge against economic trouble.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,384
    edited March 2015
    Well that's tomorrow's front pages sorted out.

    An England footballer has been arrested on suspicion of having sex with a 14 year old girl.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Smarmeron said:

    @Ishmael_X
    Sod the environment, we need to make money so we can pass on an inheritance to our offspring so they will be able to cope with the state of the world we have left them.
    BTW? where do you suggest we dig this coal up from? Or do we import the cheap soft stuff from abroad?

    I thought our offspring were going to be swept away by rising ocean levels if we don't start tidal generation. Make your mind up.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203

    Well that's tomorrow's front pages sorted out.

    An England footballer has been arrested on suspicion of having sex with a 14 year old girl.

    #yewtree ?

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited March 2015
    Bouncy Castle time t-3 and counting.

    7 point swing.

    Just don't know who for...
  • Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Ishmael_X
    Why are they talking about having to raise the height of the London flood barrier? Architectural enhancement of the "riverscape"?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677
    Tories take lead in @LordAshcroft national poll 2nd March: Con 34 (+2), Lab 31 (-5), LD 7 (nc), UKIP 14 (+3), Green 7 (-1)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Who tipped Con to take the lead with the Good Lord? ;)

    But just remember:

    As The Good Lord Giveth The Good Lord Taketh

    Amen!

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,642

    Tories take lead in @LordAshcroft national poll 2nd March: Con 34 (+2), Lab 31 (-5), LD 7 (nc), UKIP 14 (+3), Green 7 (-1)

    GOLD STANDARD!
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015

    @Hengists_Gift

    God, I don't have to spend all my time on here reading your posts do I?
    Genuinely missed it.
    This is what UKIP is like in my area:
    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-parliamentary-candidate-leaves-over-chairman-s-criminal-record-1-6546275

    Apologies for duff editing.

    Yes I've seen that before. Frankly given the offences occurred 15 years ago I get the sense that that was a rather fabricated excuse and those spitting the dummy were unhappy for other reasons. These things happen especially when an organisation is thrown into the spotlight the way UKIP has been over the last two years. I'm sure there are plenty of such goings on in other parties (the goings on in Ashford Labour around Harriet Yeo who is now supporting UKIP for example). However they don't get the same sort of sensational media treatment despite her being a former Chair of Labour's NEC.

    Fareham is interesting though because only three candidates seem to have been selected. Both the Tories and UKIP have still to find someone.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2930136/Ukip-plunged-crisis-row-campaign-chief-s-criminal-past-leads-election-candidate-quitting.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    That's more like it.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Edit function makes you a predictive genius.

    Lab -5 on the week = LOL.
  • That is all very well, you say, but what if the leaders were holiday destinations? Well, I am glad you asked. Mr Cameron, according to our groups, would be “somewhere suave, like Monaco”, or quite possibly “an offshore island to store your money in”.

    Mr Farage would simply be “Blighty!”, probably Margate or Southend because “they adore him down there” or (the view from Muswell Hill) “Benidorm.

    Somewhere tacky and loud with egg and chips”. Mr Clegg would be somewhere “nice and inoffensive”, or possibly, since he must feel beleaguered, a distant location like the Caribbean “where people don’t know him so he won’t get hassled all the time”.

    Mr Miliband? A place “where the traffic is terrible, because he doesn’t have any sense of direction.” Alternatively “the Moon, his own little world,” or more charitably “somewhere misunderstood – a really nice place but no-one goes there.”
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677
    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    edited March 2015
    Waiting to see how Mike put's an anti-Con spin on this one before I go out...
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Ashcroft's pollster is up and down more than a tart's drawers! In fact thats what I will refer to Ashcroft's polls as. 'The Tart's Drawers'.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2015

    Fareham is interesting though because only three candidates seem to have been selected. Both the Tories and UKIP have still to find someone.

    The Conservatives have selected Suella Fernandes:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2015/02/suella-fernandes-selected-as-the-conservative-candidate-for-fareham.html

    Before that she'd been a runner-up in a number of selections.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tuition fees bringing the votes home!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677

    Pulpstar said:

    This is why every vote counts in May.

    Has convinced me to vote Tory and not Lib Dem in May.

    @georgeeaton: Tim Farron tells me that Lib Dems will have to side with Labour if they win more seats but Tories win more votes. http://bit.ly/1AOuKHH

    Ooops. Now I have to vote Tory in Ilford North...
    bribe Inbox
    In case the rozzers are reading, Pulpstar isn't offering Sunil I bribe for his vote.

    Besides, I can bribe Sunil in better ways, I mean, I could threaten to put up threads on nothing but AV and Scotland for the rest of the week.
    Or do a thread on ELBOW? :)

    Basically Pulpstar wants me to vote Lab for "professional" reasons :)
    You're voting Tory, we've agreed on it.
    "This deal is getting worse all the time!" - Lando Calrissian :)
    No more Depeche Mode themed nighthawks if you don't vote Tory.

    I have altered the deal, pray I don't alter it any further.
    Join me and we can end this destructive election campaign!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    GIN1138 said:

    Waiting to see how Mike put's an anti-Con spin on this one before I go out...

    "They need a 11% lead in England to win an overall blah blah blah..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,725
    Bouncier than a well-endowed lady on a trampoline.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Hengists_Gift

    "Ashcroft's pollster is up and down more than a tart's drawers! "

    But with a disturbingly familiar emission of bodily fluids where PB is concerned?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677
    @TSE This is one of them "untested" pollsters at a GE, right? :)
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    That is all very well, you say, but what if the leaders were holiday destinations? Well, I am glad you asked. Mr Cameron, according to our groups, would be “somewhere suave, like Monaco”, or quite possibly “an offshore island to store your money in”.

    Mr Farage would simply be “Blighty!”, probably Margate or Southend because “they adore him down there” or (the view from Muswell Hill) “Benidorm.

    Somewhere tacky and loud with egg and chips”. Mr Clegg would be somewhere “nice and inoffensive”, or possibly, since he must feel beleaguered, a distant location like the Caribbean “where people don’t know him so he won’t get hassled all the time”.

    Mr Miliband? A place “where the traffic is terrible, because he doesn’t have any sense of direction.” Alternatively “the Moon, his own little world,” or more charitably “somewhere misunderstood – a really nice place but no-one goes there.”

    His Lordship needs to get the comedy out of the actual figures before tryting to relocate it elsewhere.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    GIN1138 said:

    Seriously, why do they bother with these bill-boards?

    Subliminal / repetitive advertising. You notice the message even if not looking directly at them.

    Any one for Ed Miliband's Red eyes and "We warned you once."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,426
    Gawd bless His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling!

    Last week a clear outlier, masking clear Blue water now between Labour and the Tories.

    I feckin' well hope!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212

    Fareham is interesting though because only three candidates seem to have been selected. Both the Tories and UKIP have still to find someone.

    The Conservatives have selected Suella Fernandes:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2015/02/suella-fernandes-selected-as-the-conservative-candidate-for-fareham.html

    Before that she'd been a runner-up in a number of selections.
    I'm glad Suella Fernandes got a seat. She is a really nice person.

  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Ashcroft's pollster is up and down more than a tart's drawers! In fact thats what I will refer to Ashcroft's polls as. 'The Tart's Drawers'.
    Yeah but that's good thing. Not getting moe or variation's the stuff you should worry more on. Static = suspicious.

    I've posted y'day why I may have sussed YG's static problem.

    Good tory poll but within moe despite dramatic looking swing back.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212

    That is all very well, you say, but what if the leaders were holiday destinations? Well, I am glad you asked. Mr Cameron, according to our groups, would be “somewhere suave, like Monaco”, or quite possibly “an offshore island to store your money in”.

    Mr Farage would simply be “Blighty!”, probably Margate or Southend because “they adore him down there” or (the view from Muswell Hill) “Benidorm.

    Somewhere tacky and loud with egg and chips”. Mr Clegg would be somewhere “nice and inoffensive”, or possibly, since he must feel beleaguered, a distant location like the Caribbean “where people don’t know him so he won’t get hassled all the time”.

    Mr Miliband? A place “where the traffic is terrible, because he doesn’t have any sense of direction.” Alternatively “the Moon, his own little world,” or more charitably “somewhere misunderstood – a really nice place but no-one goes there.”

    The focus group comments that Lord Ashcroft provides about Milliband are laugh out loud funny.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Well that's tomorrow's front pages sorted out.

    An England footballer has been arrested on suspicion of having sex with a 14 year old girl.

    "at a £1.85m mansion" - suggests he new on the scene - look sub 23 and less than 10 caps.
  • Fareham is interesting though because only three candidates seem to have been selected. Both the Tories and UKIP have still to find someone.

    The Conservatives have selected Suella Fernandes:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2015/02/suella-fernandes-selected-as-the-conservative-candidate-for-fareham.html

    Before that she'd been a runner-up in a number of selections.
    OK Anthony Wells (and Wiki) have yet to pick up on that

  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:

    That is all very well, you say, but what if the leaders were holiday destinations? Well, I am glad you asked. Mr Cameron, according to our groups, would be “somewhere suave, like Monaco”, or quite possibly “an offshore island to store your money in”.

    Mr Farage would simply be “Blighty!”, probably Margate or Southend because “they adore him down there” or (the view from Muswell Hill) “Benidorm.

    Somewhere tacky and loud with egg and chips”. Mr Clegg would be somewhere “nice and inoffensive”, or possibly, since he must feel beleaguered, a distant location like the Caribbean “where people don’t know him so he won’t get hassled all the time”.

    Mr Miliband? A place “where the traffic is terrible, because he doesn’t have any sense of direction.” Alternatively “the Moon, his own little world,” or more charitably “somewhere misunderstood – a really nice place but no-one goes there.”

    The focus group comments that Lord Ashcroft provides about Milliband are laugh out loud funny.

    If you suggest a good comparison topic via twitter he obliges, as one or two posters have discovered.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,426
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Waiting to see how Mike put's an anti-Con spin on this one before I go out...

    "They need a 11% lead in England to win an overall blah blah blah..
    They actually only need a 11% lead in England not to make Michael Gove look a prat when he said the Tories wouldn't lose any seats. And even then...
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    @TSE This is one of them "untested" pollsters at a GE, right? :)

    The fact that you have to ask (and won't get an answer) is the reason why this poll should be out at ELBOW, as it were.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677
    Ashcrofts so far this year:

    11th Jan: Con +6
    18th Jan: Con +1
    25th Jan: Tie
    1st Feb: Tie
    8th Feb: Con +3
    15th Feb: Lab +1
    22nd Feb: Lab +4
    1st Mar: Con +3
  • @TSE This is one of them "untested" pollsters at a GE, right? :)

    Yup
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Ashcroft swinging wildly around the mean again.

    Underlying position therefore is no change.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,314
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:



    Holy hell, you're still going to persist after your direct lie was caught?

    You said "I never at any time said that leaving the EU would give a BoP surplus." Today.

    You said "The balance of payments deficit we have with the EU of over £80 billion a year is a fact. That we would have a balance of payments surplus were it not for our trade with the EU is a fact." Yesterday.

    There is no spin on that, there is no mis-interpretation. You directly lied and contradicted yourself.

    Can you not read or understand what you've written?

    Leaving the EU is NOT THE SAME as stopping all trade with the EU. Richard never said we would stop all trade with the EU.

    But IF we did stop all EU trade our BoP WOULD be £80bn better
    If your[???] claiming an implied non-sequitur feel free. It doesn't make his ramblings any more coherent or relevant.
    I'm saying that you're entirely misrepresenting the points that Richard has made.

    Either wilfully, so you're a typically duplicitous Europhile, or just because you're a bit dim.

    I thought the former, I'm now leaning towards the latter.
    No, I am stating the pretty obvious conclusion of your argument.

    Either Tyndall is quoting the figure in support of his argument that the UK should leave the EU or he is introducing a non-sequitur to imply he has supporting facts when they are completely unrelated to his argument.

    BTW, I'm not a Europhile, I'm pretty much 50:50 between EFTA and EU membership. There's good arguments for both providing strong benefits.
    Ha.!! The idea that you are not a Eurofanatic is as believable as those figures you keep making up. I am coming to the conclusion that you are psychologically incapable of telling the truth about anything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Ashcroft's pollster is up and down more than a tart's drawers! In fact thats what I will refer to Ashcroft's polls as. 'The Tart's Drawers'.
    Rightly, he says look at the trend.

    Since the start of the year, Lord A has produced 4 Conservative leads, 2 Labour leads, and 2 ties. That's an average Conservative lead of 1%, so far this year. That is out of line with internet panels, but in line with other telephone surveys. An average of all 13 telephone surveys this year puts the Conservatives 1% ahead.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2015
    Sean_F said:

    I'm glad Suella Fernandes got a seat. She is a really nice person.

    Yes, she is, and I thought she was impressive on the couple of occasions when I met her. The only thing is that I think she might have been better suited to a seat in the London area.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677

    Fareham is interesting though because only three candidates seem to have been selected. Both the Tories and UKIP have still to find someone.

    The Conservatives have selected Suella Fernandes:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2015/02/suella-fernandes-selected-as-the-conservative-candidate-for-fareham.html

    Before that she'd been a runner-up in a number of selections.
    OK Anthony Wells (and Wiki) have yet to pick up on that

    The good thing about Wiki is that you can edit things yourself :)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Waiting to see how Mike put's an anti-Con spin on this one before I go out...

    "They need a 11% lead in England to win an overall blah blah blah..
    They actually only need a 11% lead in England not to make Michael Gove look a prat when he said the Tories wouldn't lose any seats. And even then...
    I think the magic number for the Cons is 300.

    More than that and Dave is PM - which is prize no 1.

    Less than that and it would look very difficult to last for 5 years.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,837

    Gawd bless His Lordship's Bouncy Castle of Polling!

    Last week a clear outlier, masking clear Blue water now between Labour and the Tories.

    I feckin' well hope!

    Well I'm sure you do but I no more believe Labour at 31% this week than I did the 43% combined Conservative-UKIP share last week.

    It's all good entertainment and keeps Tories like you happy for a few days but meaningless on most other levels.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TGOHF
    The only reason we are getting to hear about it is because he thinks a "gagging order" is when he asks for a blow job.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Just gonna repeat this. Variation inside moe which this is, is good & shows sampling's working well.

    YG's problem's this. MS says they have 300k registered but I've done 2 VI polls in 3 days, first of my life & they're bloody long. You get 2 GE q's, general then constituency specific, then 10-15 mins of other q's about all kinds of stuff some of it badly phrased and boring as shit. LIke q's all about Heathrow as an experience y'day. ONly boring turds like me are gonna be arsed to go through that crap.

    I reckon it's clear whatever YG say to deny this: <3000 people bother to fill em in. Same old 3k of people complete the long VI surveys = small sample pool, same old people, same old result day in day out.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Let's assume Dave and Ed both get around 280 seats +/- and that the yellow peril and nits get around 30 each +/- what then happens? And I mean what then happens to the markets and Sterling not who gets to be PM. The pound is awful strong right now but I can't see that surviving May if things pan out as every poll suggests they will. We're in for a period of political chaos - and that can't be good for the FTSE of the pound I'd have thought.

    Correct.

    Amazingly, there is still time to take corrective action. I was expecting the financial markets to wake up to the risks at around the end of 2014.
    For me the easiest way to sort Sterling is to buy gold. Maybe time to buy another load...
    A lot of the FTSE 100 earnings are overseas so a plunging pound means soaring dollar earnings.

    Also much of the risk is priced in.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Smarmeron said:

    @TGOHF
    The only reason we are getting to hear about it is because he thinks a "gagging order" is when he asks for a blow job.

    Certainly a smoking hot story..
  • coolagornacoolagorna Posts: 127
    TGOHF said:

    Well that's tomorrow's front pages sorted out.

    An England footballer has been arrested on suspicion of having sex with a 14 year old girl.

    "at a £1.85m mansion" - suggests he new on the scene - look sub 23 and less than 10 caps.
    Couldnt have been Rooney anyway, shes 50 years too young
    for his taste

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,983

    Patrick said:

    For me the easiest way to sort Sterling is to buy gold. Maybe time to buy another load...

    Well, that's more a bet on gold than on sterling, and historically gold has been a rather poor hedge against economic trouble.
    Gold was awful when Yugoslavia collapsed - the exchange rate of gold coins to food was appalling. If you want to hedge against TSC (total societal collapse), then you need shotgun shells, bottled water and wine.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Sean_F said:

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Ashcroft's pollster is up and down more than a tart's drawers! In fact thats what I will refer to Ashcroft's polls as. 'The Tart's Drawers'.
    Rightly, he says look at the trend.

    Since the start of the year, Lord A has produced 4 Conservative leads, 2 Labour leads, and 2 ties. That's an average Conservative lead of 1%, so far this year. That is out of line with internet panels, but in line with other telephone surveys. An average of all 13 telephone surveys this year puts the Conservatives 1% ahead.

    Thats one worth noting 'cos I rate phone pollsters much more than onliners. Current psn could be narrow tory lead.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Smarmeron said:

    @Ishmael_X
    Why are they talking about having to raise the height of the London flood barrier? Architectural enhancement of the "riverscape"?

    Make your mind up. You want anti-warming measures like barrages, but when someone proposes building one it becomes a capitalist plot to enrich the hedge funds and cheat our grandchildren. The "I'm going on a protest, dunno what it's about" mentality.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Another dire subsample for SLAB.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212
    The Tories lead 36/32% in England, before don't knows are reallocated (presumably that would put it up to a lead of 5%).

    Among those who've definitely made up their minds, the Tories lead 38/32
  • New Thread
  • Sean_F said:

    Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status

    Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)

    Ashcroft's pollster is up and down more than a tart's drawers! In fact thats what I will refer to Ashcroft's polls as. 'The Tart's Drawers'.
    Rightly, he says look at the trend.

    Since the start of the year, Lord A has produced 4 Conservative leads, 2 Labour leads, and 2 ties. That's an average Conservative lead of 1%, so far this year. That is out of line with internet panels, but in line with other telephone surveys. An average of all 13 telephone surveys this year puts the Conservatives 1% ahead.

    And a 1% lead would give which Party most seats, SeanF?
This discussion has been closed.