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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the early March polling this year is as good a pointer as March 2010 then the outcome is on a knife-edge

The above chart shows the CON lead in the polls from the first week in March 2010 and compares them with the actual election result nine and a half weeks later.

Read the full story here

BenM

28 days to go to the dissolution of parliament.

GIN1138

BenM said:

28 days to go to the dissolution of parliament.

Tick Tock.

isam

It bears repeating as it is so on topic... The conservatives on here seem to be poll deniers

'But I wonder whether that Tory fortitude is now nearing its limits. It is now two months since David Cameron went into full election mode, dumping everything but national security, the budget and PMQs from his government diary to make room for ever more campaign work. And in those two months, how has the Tory poll number moved? Trick question, of course: it hasn't. The party is where it was, where it has been for years now: stable on around 32 per cent, and far away from the solid lead over Labour needed to be biggest party in May.

No matter what the spinners say, it wasn't supposed to be like this. Tory election planners were expecting things to be better than this by now. Some suggested last summer would be the "crossover" point, when the Tories clearly overtook Labour. Then the autumn was the moment, but It didn't come then either. And now, after two months of attacks on Mr Miliband and rehearsal of the key Tory election themes, the party is still waiting.

"We're stuck," is how one minister puts it. "Nothing we've done yet has moved anyone," says an MP. There's no panic or even much unhappiness to those observations. On the whole, Tories still have a Micawberish faith that Something Will Turn Up, that as election day approaches, voters will simply wake up to a binary Cameron-Miliband choice and vote Tory in droves. Many privately talk about 1992 as the template, when polls put John Major behind all the way to Election Day. It almost seems a bit rude to spoil that wishful thinking by pointing out that 1992's polls were later shown to have been systemically flawed, a flaw that has since been corrected."

'http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11444236/Are-the-Conservatives-losing-their-nerve.html

FrancisUrquhart

I don't see how the Tories are going to pick up much more support, perhaps 3% from UKIPers with the vote UKIP get Ed line, to probably make it 35/35.

There is no evidence the Tories have any grand offers. The likes of the guarantee on pensioners goodies and more starter homes aren't going to shift a huge amount of support.

Tissue_Price

isam said:

It bears repeating as it is so on topic... The conservatives on here seem to be poll deniers

...says the man who uses the unweighted figures to justify his UKIP constituency bets

Dair

Richard_Tyndall said:

I never at any time said that leaving the EU would give a BoP surplus. I simply pointed out that the idea that we were benefiting from EU membership in terms of BoP was a myth since the free market has resulted in a massive BoP deficit. Bar one year in the 1980s the last time we had a trade surplus with the countries of the EEC/EU was the year before we joined.

So when you said (yesterday) : -

"The balance of payments deficit we have with the EU of over £80 billion a year is a fact. That we would have a balance of payments surplus were it not for our trade with the EU is a fact."

you were being hacked?

DavidL

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

Tissue_Price

Broadcasters reject the Greens' request for Natalie Bennett only to appear in one TV debate

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/broadcasters-reject-greens-request-natalie-bennett-only-appear-one-tv-debate

How humiliating, for her personally. Won't hurt the Greens though.

Sean_F

Yougov's polls for the past week imply a shift of c.1% from UKIP to Conservative. The Conservatives need to get another 2% or so from UKIP.

FrancisUrquhart

Tissue_Price said:

Broadcasters reject the Greens' request for Natalie Bennett only to appear in one TV debate

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/broadcasters-reject-greens-request-natalie-bennett-only-appear-one-tv-debate

How humiliating, for her personally. Won't hurt the Greens though.

No wonder...we are having a leaders debate this evening, except the Green's have sent in a ringer. Going down that path, Labour switch out Ed and Lib Dem switch our Nick.

isam

Tissue_Price said:

isam said:

It bears repeating as it is so on topic... The conservatives on here seem to be poll deniers

...says the man who uses the unweighted figures to justify his UKIP constituency bets

Yes that's right. It is as much the betting on Ukip that fascinates me as any political allegiance, I think there is an uncertainty about their poll scores that could lead to good bets... I have been proven correct in Clacton, Rochester and the euros, when others dismissed my bets as hope over judgement , and have taken 6/4 Ukip 10%+ and Ukip over lib dems from supposed PB Shrewdies

So I'm ok with my methodology

The same doesn't really apply to labour and Tory fight for power though

FrankBooth

Trouble is that government and opposition are reversed. Will that make a difference? It does tend to suggest that the belief that the debates lost it for Dave is a dubious one. The Lib Dems have a history of improving in the polls in an election campaign. It seems like the Tories are always looking for excuses for why people don't like them.

Tissue_Price

So here's where the late swing is coming from...

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/02/why-the-betting-markets-disagree-with-the-polls/

Half the poll were asked:

"Regardless of what result you would prefer, which party do you think is most likely to form a government after the general election?"

and half were asked:

Regardless of what result you would prefer, who do you think is most likely to be Prime Minister after the general election?

Labour supporters showed some serious dissonance, whereas the Tories & LDs answered basically the same to each question.

There's also some serious self- delusion going on amongst UKIP supporters...

Tables: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wqtw34mhq3/TimesRedBoxResults_150226_election_expectations_W.pdf

GIN1138

isam said:

It bears repeating as it is so on topic... The conservatives on here seem to be poll deniers

What's unique about this election is the paradox of Cameron being personally quite poluar but people preferring the Labour Party.

I've said before, but what people really seem to want is Cameron leading a Labour government.

Most people honestly don't know which will be most important: Dave and Ed Vs Con and Lab, but that's why Con supporters think they are still in the game.

Anorak

FPT

isam said:

I have tried every drug bar crack and heroin, have had to undergo treatment for the effects of a couple, and have seen friends have their lives destroyed by the drugs you encourage. So by all means laugh and joke about it, and criticise and mock those who try to warn of the dangers from their own experience, but it is your attitude that leads to misery for lots of children and their families

Ok, you tempted me back.

Your suffering, following a willingness to stuff your body with a cocktail of chemicals, does not make you a bellwether for most of the population. I can barely speculate on the additional issues caused by mixing drugs which would not be seen if they were taken on their own, but my own experience with mixing just two means I would never do them together again (or any other pair, for that matter).

I've seen at first hand the misery caused by alcoholism; I'm not campaigning to ban alcohol. People should be free to make their own mistakes, and equally they should be informed of the risks they are subjecting themselves to.

The totalitarian approach of banning everything that causes harm runs counter to my understanding of, and firm belief in, personal freedoms. It's been a shame to watch UKIP's libertarian streak washed away by populist table thumping, and an influx of reactionaries such as yourself.

currystar

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

Great post

This has been an excellent coalition government. They inherited a nightmare yet have been hugely successful and have performed far better than anyone thought they would. Despite this the British public will vote them out. Madness

JonnyJimmy

Dair said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

I never at any time said that leaving the EU would give a BoP surplus. I simply pointed out that the idea that we were benefiting from EU membership in terms of BoP was a myth since the free market has resulted in a massive BoP deficit. Bar one year in the 1980s the last time we had a trade surplus with the countries of the EEC/EU was the year before we joined.

So when you said (yesterday) : -

"The balance of payments deficit we have with the EU of over £80 billion a year is a fact. That we would have a balance of payments surplus were it not for our trade with the EU is a fact."

you were being hacked?

Leaving the EU does NOT equal stopping all trade with the EU, except in the lies of europhiles.

grf

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Isam, better to avoid using loaded language like 'denier'. It's mostly used regarding to Holocaust deniers, and sometimes by especially vehement and unreasonable pro-global warming zealots.

It supposes that there's a Truth, and you can acknowledge 'it' ('it' often being a political perspective) or be a vile heretic.

Anyway, we shall see how the polling turns out. I predicted a narrow (but effectively useless) seat advantage for the Conservatives, largely because I think the SNP will stomp all over Scottish Labour.

Indigo

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Errr: the government just makes every act a confidence act.

They therefore either (a) cease to be lame duck, or (b) get an election.

Possible I guess, but hard to think of anything more painful or guaranteed to piss off the voters. First you would have to post the substantive motion, and get it voted down, then raise a Motion of Confidence in the government by supporting its policy of X, which clears an entire day of the parliamentary calendar for the debate (which supersedes all other business), hold the debate, pass the original substantive motion, and then win the confidence vote. Repeated every week or two! (Just been reading Hansard on the Maastricht Treaty to check the procedure)

Pulpstar

Tissue_Price said:

So here's where the late swing is coming from...

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/02/why-the-betting-markets-disagree-with-the-polls/

Half the poll were asked:

"Regardless of what result you would prefer, which party do you think is most likely to form a government after the general election?"

and half were asked:

Regardless of what result you would prefer, who do you think is most likely to be Prime Minister after the general election?

Labour supporters showed some serious dissonance, whereas the Tories & LDs answered basically the same to each question.

There's also some serious self- delusion going on amongst UKIP supporters...

Tables: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wqtw34mhq3/TimesRedBoxResults_150226_election_expectations_W.pdf

Does the average man on the clapham omnibus not seperate out what he thinks will happen with what he wants to happen. Is that a leap too far for most people ?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. grf, welcome to the site.

Sean_F

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

One third (or thereabouts) is probably as good as it gets for anybody these days. I think the days when a political party could poll 40%+ are long gone.

Start The Week had a very good discussion about insurgent parties, this morning, and just how alienated people have become from the mainstream (across Europe).

FalseFlag

The economy has only done as well as to deserve a two/three point lead come election time. They are currently polling their deserved one point gap behind the opposition.

Tissue_Price

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

So here's where the late swing is coming from...

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/03/02/why-the-betting-markets-disagree-with-the-polls/

Half the poll were asked:

"Regardless of what result you would prefer, which party do you think is most likely to form a government after the general election?"

and half were asked:

Regardless of what result you would prefer, who do you think is most likely to be Prime Minister after the general election?

Labour supporters showed some serious dissonance, whereas the Tories & LDs answered basically the same to each question.

There's also some serious self- delusion going on amongst UKIP supporters...

Tables: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wqtw34mhq3/TimesRedBoxResults_150226_election_expectations_W.pdf

Does the average man on the clapham omnibus not seperate out what he thinks will happen with what he wants to happen. Is that a leap too far for most people ?

It's a leap too far for most people. Not to mention that most people socialise with people like themselves, so their frame of reference is necessarily restricted.

This polling is suggestive rather than predictive.

RochdalePioneers

FPT by Blue_Rog

"But what else can the Tories do? They've delivered on the economy and jobs, the NHS has failed to implode, the education system is still functioning OK etc, etc, etc. If the dear peepul want to choose someone else after all this then, I repeat, what can the Tories do?"

Point is that the majority of the "peepul" don't see that list of achievements as factual. They don't feel any benefits of this economic recovery, of jobs that are allegedly now all full time and paying wage increases faster than price increases. They see an NHS in crisis with ever bigger issues seeing a GP and things like elderly care being strangled (cf the story about the A&E crisis at Addenbrookes where one old lady was marooned on a ward as the care home and social care providers both of which had been privatised wouldn't touch her as she was unprofitable).

Just because some Tory minister stands up and says "here you are, the moon on a stick" doesn't mean that the moor or stick actually exist. The sad truth is that too many on the right believe their own spin and then get angry when people point out that reality looks very different.

FrankBooth

DavidL _ 'the fastest growing economy in Europe'

Over the 5 years? I'd like to see the figures. Even if it's true it's not exactly saying much! The great beneficiaries of our economy appear to be immigrants coming from poorer or higher unemployment societies and asset owners (who are increasingly foreign). For all the attempt to deal with Ukip the Tories have been rather good for foreigners who are unlikely to vote for them, even if they are allowed to. And the credit for growth might just be due to Mr Carney for keeping his foot on the accelerator even if no-one is holding the steering wheel.

Tissue_Price

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

One third (or thereabouts) is probably as good as it gets for anybody these days. I think the days when a political party could poll 40%+ are long gone.

Start The Week had a very good discussion about insurgent parties, this morning, and just how alienated people have become from the mainstream (across Europe).

If we get a Labour Minority government propped up by the SNP I expect the Tories to be polling 40% by Christmas.

currystar

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Sean_F

Tissue_Price said:

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

One third (or thereabouts) is probably as good as it gets for anybody these days. I think the days when a political party could poll 40%+ are long gone.

Start The Week had a very good discussion about insurgent parties, this morning, and just how alienated people have become from the mainstream (across Europe).

If we get a Labour Minority government propped up by the SNP I expect the Tories to be polling 40% by Christmas.

They may briefly poll 40%, but I doubt if they'll get it.

IMO, within a couple of years (assuming that such a government survived that long), the Conservatives would be polling in the low to mid thirties, and Labour and UKIP in the low to mid twenties.

Pulpstar

Tissue_Price said:

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

One third (or thereabouts) is probably as good as it gets for anybody these days. I think the days when a political party could poll 40%+ are long gone.

Start The Week had a very good discussion about insurgent parties, this morning, and just how alienated people have become from the mainstream (across Europe).

If we get a Labour Minority government propped up by the SNP I expect the Tories to be polling 40% by Christmas.

Start off 2020 Betfair position the day after the GE with a few hundred on Tory Maj betfair ?

chestnut

DavidL said:

It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

Keep calm and carry on.

Labour have Ed Miliband.

Tissue_Price

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

One third (or thereabouts) is probably as good as it gets for anybody these days. I think the days when a political party could poll 40%+ are long gone.

Start The Week had a very good discussion about insurgent parties, this morning, and just how alienated people have become from the mainstream (across Europe).

Generally I think this concern is overblown in the UK. The two-party share will probably increase at this election, helped by a bit more differentiation between the parties (and leaders). All that's really happened is that the traditional party of protest has changed.

Europe is different because the mainstream has quite obviously f*cked up, with the Euro.

Pulpstar

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

This would very much depend on which town you are looking at I'd guess.

Indigo

currystar said:

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

Great post

This has been an excellent coalition government. They inherited a nightmare yet have been hugely successful and have performed far better than anyone thought they would. Despite this the British public will vote them out. Madness

Because they are still addicted to the Magic Money Tree.

The Conservatives are like your parents when you were a kid, they tell you to go to bed on time, they get you to tidy your room, they take away your pocket money if you take the piss, and they make you do some work around the house if you want a few quid. Labour are your favourite uncle who turn up in their fancy pink van with a few presents he brought for you after borrowing a few quid on the never-never, and who loudly promises you a flash day out on the town before quietly nicking the cash to pay for it out of your piggy bank when you are not looking.

There is a slight chance that if Labour smash the economy into the wall REALLY hard, so that we have to call in the IMF, or borrow embarrassingly large amounts from the ECB, or if the bond markets take fright and the interest on our national debt triples (to say half what Greece is paying now) then the public might take notice, but more likely they will decide they are "bored" with the news coverage, and turn over for the next episode of Strict Come Dancing With Big Brother's Got Talent.

Sean_F

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

People do give the government some credit. But, they've put up with 5 years of austerity, with more to come. And, a fair number of people won't vote for people who don't share their values (however competent they may be). That also hits Labour's potential support as well.

Sunil_Prasannan

For those wot missed it yesterday: Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week (ELBOW) for week-ending 1st March:

Two main parties up, three smaller parties down

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572032477293891585

Lab lead down to only 0.7%, lowest this year and second lowest since August

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572033068443275264

Greens definitely faltering - 6.1% lowest score of the year so far.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572043434179084288

currystar

Pulpstar said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

This would very much depend on which town you are looking at I'd guess.

Its every town I go to.

MarqueeMark

Tissue_Price said:

Broadcasters reject the Greens' request for Natalie Bennett only to appear in one TV debate

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/broadcasters-reject-greens-request-natalie-bennett-only-appear-one-tv-debate

How humiliating, for her personally. Won't hurt the Greens though.

Are these the debates that aren't going to happen anyway?

FrancisUrquhart

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

I have to say, it really depends. I live in town that is booming, as you say all the restaurants jammed packed, new ones opening up, non-chain stores etc...I had reason to visit Crewe / Nantwich area 2 weeks ago. I only mention that because if we remember that it went Tory with the popular son of the local Timpson family and is a marginal.

Needing to use the bank I went into the town centre. It is in a total mess, lots of empty shops, crappy discount stores etc. Worse than during the middle of the recession and little sign of the good times are returning. Also, it has attracted a lot of Eastern Europe workers.

So I think the Tories will have a hard job to convince the people of Crewe that things are great and for the xenophobic voter, the influx of 1000's of Polish workers certainly wont have them rushing to vote Tory.

Sunil_Prasannan

And here are the monthly "Super-ELBOWs" updated for February. Lab lead for the month 1.2%, almost unchanged from January (1.1%). Note UKIP's slow but steady decline.

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572053013654847488

FalseFlag

FrankBooth said:

DavidL _ 'the fastest growing economy in Europe'

Over the 5 years? I'd like to see the figures. Even if it's true it's not exactly saying much! The great beneficiaries of our economy appear to be immigrants coming from poorer or higher unemployment societies and asset owners (who are increasingly foreign). For all the attempt to deal with Ukip the Tories have been rather good for foreigners who are unlikely to vote for them, even if they are allowed to. And the credit for growth might just be due to Mr Carney for keeping his foot on the accelerator even if no-one is holding the steering wheel.

Real wage growth has been poor, immigration has held wages down too much, the government's own fault.

coolagorna

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Indigo

DavidL said:

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

The Budget will tell us what the Conservative Leadership really thinks their chances are.

If it's a confident budget which looks responsible, cuts the deficit, and has a few bits of eye catching tinsel for the voters, they think they are going to win.

If its full of bear traps for Labour, measures that would trip up a Labour government and make them look bad if they over turn them, but make them actually very desirable from a fiscal point of view to over turn (see 50% tax rate for a master class), and expensive populist guff for which the real costs don't vest for a couple of years, then they think they are going to lose.

richardDodd

Currystar..I spent a couple of months in Borehamwood..Elstree last year on a film shoot. It looked like everyone had won the lottery.No old cars, restaurants were always full. Nail shops and beauty salons everywhere.

currystar

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Well I was in Liverpool at the weekend
And Manchester three weeks ago

Restaurants full, the places are buzzing, people spending loads of money.

FrancisUrquhart

Jihadi John: Mohammed Emwazi's brother voiced support for radical cleric

The Telegraph reveals Omar Emwazi, 21, was known as a member of the 'Muslim Mafia' at school and supported an Islamist cleric who inspired one of Lee Rigby’s killers

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11444377/Jihadi-John-Mohammed-Emwazis-brother-voiced-support-for-radical-cleric.html

More and more signs that the eldest brother was not just some guy who lost his way. His father, this brother, his sister, all appear to have shown some interesting behaviour.

Smarmeron

10 charged in Rochdale over child abuse, no real details yet, just on the Beeb ticker.

Pulpstar

currystar said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Well I was in Liverpool at the weekend
And Manchester three weeks ago

Restaurants full, the places are buzzing, people spending loads of money.

Payday effect.

chestnut

The Tories don't really need to convince people that things are great, just that they will get worse under Labour.

TheScreamingEagles

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

Sunil_Prasannan

richardDodd said:

Currystar..I spent a couple of months in Borehamwood..Elstree last year on a film shoot. It looked like everyone had won the lottery.No old cars, restaurants were always full. Nail shops and beauty salons everywhere.

Rail fans may note that Elstree & Borehamwood station is actually in Borehamwood

(cf. Harrow & Wealdstone station actually being in Wealdstone).

FrancisUrquhart

currystar said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Well I was in Liverpool at the weekend
And Manchester three weeks ago

Restaurants full, the places are buzzing, people spending loads of money.

My experience is that the likes of Manchester and Birmingham has really undergone a huge overhaul, but the satellite towns around them are not necessarily seeing the shiny shiny wave of new buildings, shops, restaurants etc.

Indigo

If Osborne announces Public Sector Worker Bonds available in June with a 100% cash bonus on their 3-yr maturity at the budget, its time to put the bank on LAB Maj

Sean_F

currystar said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Well I was in Liverpool at the weekend
And Manchester three weeks ago

Restaurants full, the places are buzzing, people spending loads of money.

Even in 2008/09, restaurants etc. were buzzing in Central London. But, the recession was very real.

chestnut

coolagorna said:

Hardly surprising when average wages

House prices, car sales, company profit updates and holiday bookings tell you much more than average wage statistics ever will.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

Fridays do have great midweek offers occasionally, but the London Road is my favourite area of Sheffield to go out and eat.

Last restaurant I ate at was Pizza Express in Shepherd's Bush !
Actually was Damons at Peaks...

Indigo

chestnut said:

The Tories don't really need to convince people that things are great, just that they will get worse under Labour.

Problem is it wont, for a while, because they will give away all sorts of candy paid for with borrowed money for a couple of years. People always remember the great sex, never the infection they caught afterwards.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

currystar said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Well I was in Liverpool at the weekend
And Manchester three weeks ago

Restaurants full, the places are buzzing, people spending loads of money.

My experience is that the likes of Manchester and Birmingham has really undergone a huge overhaul, but the satellite towns around them are not necessarily seeing the shiny shiny wave of new buildings, shops, restaurants etc.

Is the case with Manchester very much so, however, with the tram extension, the other towns are getting some boosts.

JWisemann

Wheres Rod?

coolagorna

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

It was payday weekend..people were going out drinking to forget they are living
under the misery of Tory led rule for a few hours before another few weeks of
cutting costs and staying in and counting the days to liberation
day in May

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

Fridays do have great midweek offers occasionally, but the London Road is my favourite area of Sheffield to go out and eat.

Last restaurant I ate at was Pizza Express in Shepherd's Bush ! Actually was Damons at Peaks...

If I do eat out in Sheffield, it is usually near the centretainment or Meadowhall.

I used to spend a lot of time a while back on London Road/West Street and of course, Champs on Eccleshall road.

I believe Mr Owls is a fan of Damons, if I go the Peaks, I'll eat at Pizza Hut.

TheScreamingEagles

coolagorna said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

It was payday weekend..people were going out drinking to forget they are living
under the misery of Tory led rule for a few hours before another few weeks of
cutting costs and staying in and counting the days to liberation
day in May

Is like that every Friday, most Fridays, I go t'cinema, and the place is booming.

HurstLlama

" I went into the town centre. It is in a total mess, lots of empty shops, crappy discount stores etc. Worse than during the middle of the recession and little sign of the good times are returning. Also, it has attracted a lot of Eastern Europe workers."

You could be describing my nearest town, Burgess Hill. The town centre is exactly like that and seems mainly populated during the day by the elderly and overweight people in track suits. If you were to judge the place by its town centre you would think that it was poverty stricken and in massive, probably terminal, decline.

Yet house prices are more than buoyant, building is going on on every available plot of land, the industrial estates are throbbing with activity and there are jobs for everyone who is employable. Burgess Hill is actually a very prosperous town that will remain staunchly Conservative in its voting.

Pulpstar

Have to say that of all the "big city nightlife streets" Broad Street in Birmingham is by far my least favourite/most chavvy.

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Have to say that of all the "big city nightlife streets" Broad Street in Birmingham is by far my least favourite/most chavvy.

Yeah, but they have a Reflex, which is an awesome 80s bar.

(Sheffield has one as well, behind John Lewis/City Hall)

Indigo

Economist not impressed with the Tuition Fees policy

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21645241-cutting-tuition-fees-labours-least-progressive-idea-class-war

The implications that the Uni's might not see the cash cut from the tuition fees because it would increase the deficit is interesting.

The proposal would leave universities with less funding unless they were compensated with an increase in their direct grants. This might not happen: unlike debt write-offs, increased grants boost the deficit. That means Labour must find a way to pay for the policy, even though the government’s cash-flow would be largely unchanged (under either system, it pays the full cost of the course up front). Fearing for their budgets, university chiefs have criticised the proposal. Mr Miliband is expected to find the cash by reducing tax relief on saving for retirement.

TheWatcher

coolagorna said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

It was payday weekend..people were going out drinking to forget they are living
under the misery of Tory led rule for a few hours before another few weeks of
cutting costs and staying in and counting the days to liberation
day in May

Presumably, they're all looking forward to free Unicorn steaks, and Owl cocktails under a Labour government.

PClipp

DavidL said:

I have some sympathy with Blue_Rog's comment at the end of the last thread. It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

And 1/3 of the population like them enough to vote for them.

To come we have the budget in 2 weeks and the campaign. Are either of these going to make the difference? If the above list doesn't I seriously doubt it.

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Have to say that of all the "big city nightlife streets" Broad Street in Birmingham is by far my least favourite/most chavvy.

Yeah, but they have a Reflex, which is an awesome 80s bar.

(Sheffield has one as well, behind John Lewis/City Hall)

I've always gone to the "other" Reflex in Birmingham, the one near the Chinese bit. Not been out to Brummajum for about a decade though.

FrankBooth

Indigo said:

chestnut said:

The Tories don't really need to convince people that things are great, just that they will get worse under Labour.

Problem is it wont, for a while, because they will give away all sorts of candy paid for with borrowed money for a couple of years. People always remember the great sex, never the infection they caught afterwards.

It's all the voters fault eh? Have you considered that we have a government that came in five years ago with a single minded economic focus on eliminating the deficit. A PM who said getting the job half done wasn't acceptable? It makes sense that voters would likely feel that the apparent good performance on jobs and growth of late is merely incidental. And that on their central objective they have failed. I see everyone is talking about a consumption boom. Certainly truth in that and there's not much incentive to save right now. Even if their spending like mad perhaps deep down people know things aren't that great?

CD13

Here's a what-if.

If Ed scrambles together a fragile coalition with the SNP and we have six months of governing before another election, what is the likely outcome?

Assuming Ed is political (he is), he will have showered goodies on all, and especially Scotland. He goes to the country and asks for five more years. I'll assume for OGH's heart rate that the LDs have clambered from the coffin and have around thirty seats, and Ukip have four or five but loads of second places.

My prediction .. a majority for Ed, SNP disappointed, Ukip fading slightly and the LDs back to being NOTA.

Basically ... back to normal with an idiot on stilts as PM. Not good.

chestnut

Indigo said:

Problem is it wont, for a while, because they will give away all sorts of candy paid for with borrowed money for a couple of years. People always remember the great sex, never the infection they caught afterwards.

Over the last six months or so, the Tories have moved clearly ahead with the 55+ age group, and they are near level pegging with the 45-54 band now.

People know the score. It comes through in the economic competence ratings.

Isn't it true that no party has won when behind on both economics and leadership?

PClipp

DavidL said:

It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

Perhaps people attribute this to the Lib Dems, rather than to the Tories, David. Though they are not grateful to them either.

Meanwhile, nobody believes that the Tories are capable of looking after the interests of the majority of the population.

That is why I think the Tories ought to be more generous towards their coalition partners. They might then be more credible.

Indigo

FrankBooth said:

Indigo said:

chestnut said:

The Tories don't really need to convince people that things are great, just that they will get worse under Labour.

Problem is it wont, for a while, because they will give away all sorts of candy paid for with borrowed money for a couple of years. People always remember the great sex, never the infection they caught afterwards.

It's all the voters fault eh? Have you considered that we have a government that came in five years ago with a single minded economic focus on eliminating the deficit. A PM who said getting the job half done wasn't acceptable? It makes sense that voters would likely feel that the apparent good performance on jobs and growth of late is merely incidental. And that on their central objective they have failed. I see everyone is talking about a consumption boom. Certainly truth in that and there's not much incentive to save right now. Even if their spending like mad perhaps deep down people know things aren't that great?

But they failed because a) everyone cried so much that it became apparent that cutting what was required would be electoral suicide and b) because Labour voted against just about every cost cut the government proposed, and the LDs some of them. Its a bit rich to sit there and complain about failure to clear the deficit having voted to prevent it happening for the last five years. Its was observed at the time of the last election, that the problem wasn't knowing what to do to the deficit, the problem was doing it and getting elected afterwards.

People know things aren't great, we spend a decade under Labour spending money we didn't have, and now someone is asking for the cheque. Labour isn't proposing a solution to this, they just want to do it all over again. There isn't the slightest indication from them about how they proposed to close the £100m gap between what we collect and what we spend, even the small money raisers they have announced have already been spent.

Dair

CD13 said:

Here's a what-if.

If Ed scrambles together a fragile coalition with the SNP and we have six months of governing before another election, what is the likely outcome?

Assuming Ed is political (he is), he will have showered goodies on all, and especially Scotland. He goes to the country and asks for five more years. I'll assume for OGH's heart rate that the LDs have clambered from the coffin and have around thirty seats, and Ukip have four or five but loads of second places.

My prediction .. a majority for Ed, SNP disappointed, Ukip fading slightly and the LDs back to being NOTA.

Basically ... back to normal with an idiot on stilts as PM. Not good.

The change in Scotland is not likely to be undone.

A second GE would just increase the SNP share and seats while all taking place as part of the greater campaign for a Holyrood 2016 landslide and the Second Referendum in 2017/8.

Sunil_Prasannan

"Westboro Baptist Church's Plan To Picket Leonard Nimoy's Funeral FOILED"

https://uk.yahoo.com/movies/westboro-baptist-churchs-plan-to-picket-leonard-112506822046.html

weejonnie

HurstLlama said:

" I went into the town centre. It is in a total mess, lots of empty shops, crappy discount stores etc. Worse than during the middle of the recession and little sign of the good times are returning. Also, it has attracted a lot of Eastern Europe workers."

You could be describing my nearest town, Burgess Hill. The town centre is exactly like that and seems mainly populated during the day by the elderly and overweight people in track suits. If you were to judge the place by its town centre you would think that it was poverty stricken and in massive, probably terminal, decline.

Yet house prices are more than buoyant, building is going on on every available plot of land, the industrial estates are throbbing with activity and there are jobs for everyone who is employable. Burgess Hill is actually a very prosperous town that will remain staunchly Conservative in its voting.

A lot of town centre problems are not due to the economy being in the doldrums but that councils have made them very pedestrian friendly.

So people who need to do their weekly shop can't park near the high street and so go to the out of town shopping centres. The amount of money in the high street has collapsed so the smaller businesses can't afford the sky-high traditional rates/ rent and thus gone out of business.

I see that in Bishop Auckland. The main street (Newgate Street) has dozens of empty shops - yet the shopping centre in West Auckland is booming. (It has to be said that there are some signs of shops re-opening.)

But this it the North East. Very little wealth (as in most Labour areas) is created here.

BannedInParis

Pulpstar said:

Have to say that of all the "big city nightlife streets" Broad Street in Birmingham is by far my least favourite/most chavvy.

There's a signpost coming from the other direction, pointing down to the street saying "Rumble Strip". Always makes me giggle.

paulbarker

On topic, in March 2010 we has already endured two years of media speculation about the date of the Election. This time, nothing. Most voters will think seriously about their choice when they feel they have to, probably not till mid April. At that point the polls will shift very quickly & many "Experts/Pundits" will explode. Messy.

Indigo

CD13 said:

Here's a what-if.

If Ed scrambles together a fragile coalition with the SNP and we have six months of governing before another election, what is the likely outcome?

Assuming Ed is political (he is), he will have showered goodies on all, and especially Scotland. He goes to the country and asks for five more years. I'll assume for OGH's heart rate that the LDs have clambered from the coffin and have around thirty seats, and Ukip have four or five but loads of second places.

My prediction .. a majority for Ed, SNP disappointed, Ukip fading slightly and the LDs back to being NOTA.

Basically ... back to normal with an idiot on stilts as PM. Not good.

Labour cant afford a second campaign which might slow him down a bit. I think an early Ed act will be some sort of idiotic Harperson PC act which will piss off a lot of voters and might gee up the kippers. More interestingly is if people see the weak government as a soft target and we get some terrorism incidents, or more likely the financial markets put the boot in.

isam

Anorak said:

FPT

isam said:

I have tried every drug bar crack and heroin, have had to undergo treatment for the effects of a couple, and have seen friends have their lives destroyed by the drugs you encourage. So by all means laugh and joke about it, and criticise and mock those who try to warn of the dangers from their own experience, but it is your attitude that leads to misery for lots of children and their families

Ok, you tempted me back.

Your suffering, following a willingness to stuff your body with a cocktail of chemicals, does not make you a bellwether for most of the population. I can barely speculate on the additional issues caused by mixing drugs which would not be seen if they were taken on their own, but my own experience with mixing just two means I would never do them together again (or any other pair, for that matter).

I've seen at first hand the misery caused by alcoholism; I'm not campaigning to ban alcohol. People should be free to make their own mistakes, and equally they should be informed of the risks they are subjecting themselves to.

The totalitarian approach of banning everything that causes harm runs counter to my understanding of, and firm belief in, personal freedoms. It's been a shame to watch UKIP's libertarian streak washed away by populist table thumping, and an influx of reactionaries such as yourself.

Yes my suffering was my own fault as was that of my friends, but we were children.

I just don't want to see my children or those of my mates to ever in that horrible nervous anxious confused state that too much cannabis leaves young people in, and an atmosphere where it is peddled as safe encourages that

anotherDave

YouGov Sunday Times asked a "would consider voting for / would not consider voting for." question. The parties fall into two clear groups.

Lab +42% / -51% (biggest potential gains from Green)
Con +40% / -54% (biggest potential gains from UKIP)

UKIP +26% / - 69% (biggest potential gains from Con)
Green +25% / -69% (biggest potential gains from Lab)
LD +23% / -71% (biggest potential gains from Con)

p.4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/42tha4tjwo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-270215.pdf

weejonnie

CD13 said:

Here's a what-if.

If Ed scrambles together a fragile coalition with the SNP and we have six months of governing before another election, what is the likely outcome?

Assuming Ed is political (he is), he will have showered goodies on all, and especially Scotland. He goes to the country and asks for five more years. I'll assume for OGH's heart rate that the LDs have clambered from the coffin and have around thirty seats, and Ukip have four or five but loads of second places.

My prediction .. a majority for Ed, SNP disappointed, Ukip fading slightly and the LDs back to being NOTA.

Basically ... back to normal with an idiot on stilts as PM. Not good.

One good thing for Ed is that he would have had another 6 months of the BBC spouting forth how good a prime minister he is and he should be given time to meet his manifesto commitments (especially a compulsory levy on all households to fund the same BBC instead of the TV licence.). A few more mockumentaries about the danger of leaving the EU or letting UKIP obtain any sort of political power will need about 6 months to film - so the timing is perfect.

BenM

chestnut said:

The Tories don't really need to convince people that things are great, just that they will get worse under Labour.

They've tried doing that for three years. #Flatline

HurstLlama

weejonnie said:

HurstLlama said:

" I went into the town centre. It is in a total mess, lots of empty shops, crappy discount stores etc. Worse than during the middle of the recession and little sign of the good times are returning. Also, it has attracted a lot of Eastern Europe workers."

You could be describing my nearest town, Burgess Hill. The town centre is exactly like that and seems mainly populated during the day by the elderly and overweight people in track suits. If you were to judge the place by its town centre you would think that it was poverty stricken and in massive, probably terminal, decline.

Yet house prices are more than buoyant, building is going on on every available plot of land, the industrial estates are throbbing with activity and there are jobs for everyone who is employable. Burgess Hill is actually a very prosperous town that will remain staunchly Conservative in its voting.

A lot of town centre problems are not due to the economy being in the doldrums but that councils have made them very pedestrian friendly.

So people who need to do their weekly shop can't park near the high street and so go to the out of town shopping centres. The amount of money in the high street has collapsed so the smaller businesses can't afford the sky-high traditional rates/ rent and thus gone out of business.

I see that in Bishop Auckland. The main street (Newgate Street) has dozens of empty shops - yet the shopping centre in West Auckland is booming. (It has to be said that there are some signs of shops re-opening.)

But this it the North East. Very little wealth (as in most Labour areas) is created here.

Mr Jonnie, you maybe on the money with your diagnosis. Burgess Hill Town Centre has been pedestrianised and car park charges have been ramped up of late.

OldKingCole

PClipp said:

DavidL said:

It is very difficult to see what the Tories can do to change the position.

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate.

Perhaps people attribute this to the Lib Dems, rather than to the Tories, David. Though they are not grateful to them either.

Meanwhile, nobody believes that the Tories are capable of looking after the interests of the majority of the population.

That is why I think the Tories ought to be more generous towards their coalition partners. They might then be more credible.

Tories hate the LD's more than they do Labour. That's why the Coalition's been, generally lower down, so scratchy.

Garethofthevale

CD13 said:

Here's a what-if.

If Ed scrambles together a fragile coalition with the SNP and we have six months of governing before another election, what is the likely outcome?

Assuming Ed is political (he is), he will have showered goodies on all, and especially Scotland. He goes to the country and asks for five more years. I'll assume for OGH's heart rate that the LDs have clambered from the coffin and have around thirty seats, and Ukip have four or five but loads of second places.

My prediction .. a majority for Ed, SNP disappointed, Ukip fading slightly and the LDs back to being NOTA.

Basically ... back to normal with an idiot on stilts as PM. Not good.

There are several things wrong with this scenario:

1) The PM no longer has the power to dissolve parliament unilaterally. He would need 66% of MPs to agree to it. Why would any of the other parties agree to this?
2) Labour has no money to fight a 2nd election so closely afterwards
3) You are assuming there is no English backlash to perceived bribes being given to Scotland
4) You are assuming the new government governs flawlessly for 6 months
5) You are assuming the Tories don't get a boost from their new leader
6) Your scenario suggests the 2nd election would be happening over Christmas

FalseFlag

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"Westboro Baptist Church's Plan To Picket Leonard Nimoy's Funeral FOILED"

https://uk.yahoo.com/movies/westboro-baptist-churchs-plan-to-picket-leonard-112506822046.html

Founded by Democrat politician and anti-racism activist Fred Phelps. Ann Coulter has long noted how Phelps's family cult received implausible legal protection from the judicial establishment.

The Westboro Baptist Church is an interesting example for how to think about things like the possibility of false flag operations. It probably wasn't a false flag per se, but it was lovingly nurtured by respectable society, whose purposes it served well.

Dair

anotherDave said:

YouGov Sunday Times asked a "would consider voting for / would not consider voting for." question. The parties fall into two clear groups.

Lab +42% / -51% (biggest potential gains from Green)
Con +40% / -54% (biggest potential gains from UKIP)

UKIP +26% / - 69% (biggest potential gains from Con)
Green +25% / -69% (biggest potential gains from Lab)
LD +23% / -71% (biggest potential gains from Con)

p.4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/42tha4tjwo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-270215.pdf

So the Drooling Kippers "one in three voters might support us" turns into one in four and they STILL haven't got any policies into the public consciousness.

Sunil_Prasannan

Indigo said:

CD13 said:

Here's a what-if.

If Ed scrambles together a fragile coalition with the SNP and we have six months of governing before another election, what is the likely outcome?

Assuming Ed is political (he is), he will have showered goodies on all, and especially Scotland. He goes to the country and asks for five more years. I'll assume for OGH's heart rate that the LDs have clambered from the coffin and have around thirty seats, and Ukip have four or five but loads of second places.

My prediction .. a majority for Ed, SNP disappointed, Ukip fading slightly and the LDs back to being NOTA.

Basically ... back to normal with an idiot on stilts as PM. Not good.

Labour cant afford a second campaign which might slow him down a bit. I think an early Ed act will be some sort of idiotic Harperson PC act which will piss off a lot of voters and might gee up the kippers. More interestingly is if people see the weak government as a soft target and we get some terrorism incidents, or more likely the financial markets put the boot in.

Well, Ed is what gives a PBer his power. He's an energy field created by all living things. Ed surrounds us and penetrates us; he binds the Galaxy together.

RochdalePioneers

paulbarker said:

On topic, in March 2010 we has already endured two years of media speculation about the date of the Election. This time, nothing. Most voters will think seriously about their choice when they feel they have to, probably not till mid April. At that point the polls will shift very quickly & many "Experts/Pundits" will explode. Messy.

Whilst there are an awful lot of don't knows out there (as other activists will confirm), this sounds like the final pushing of the goalposts as to when we will finally see that fat Tory lead.

We'll be here on 5th May, I'll be collapsing onto the sofa with a beer after a hard day's campaigning and reading comments on here about how we'll finally see swingback on polling day instead of April/March/Jan/Autumn/Summer/2013 etc etc as promised.

EICIPM

anotherDave

anotherDave said:

YouGov Sunday Times asked a "would consider voting for / would not consider voting for." question. The parties fall into two clear groups.

Lab +42% / -51% (biggest potential gains from Green)
Con +40% / -54% (biggest potential gains from UKIP)

UKIP +26% / - 69% (biggest potential gains from Con)
Green +25% / -69% (biggest potential gains from Lab)
LD +23% / -71% (biggest potential gains from Con)

p.4
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/42tha4tjwo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-270215.pdf

Con voters prefer: Con, LD, UKIP, Green/Lab
Lab voters prefer: Lab, Green, LD/UKIP, Con

UKIP voters prefer: UKIP, Con, Lab, Green, LD
Green voters prefer: Green, Lab, LD, UKIP, Con
LD voters prefer: LD, Green, Lab, Con, UKIP

Sunil_Prasannan

RochdalePioneers said:

paulbarker said:

On topic, in March 2010 we has already endured two years of media speculation about the date of the Election. This time, nothing. Most voters will think seriously about their choice when they feel they have to, probably not till mid April. At that point the polls will shift very quickly & many "Experts/Pundits" will explode. Messy.

Whilst there are an awful lot of don't knows out there (as other activists will confirm), this sounds like the final pushing of the goalposts as to when we will finally see that fat Tory lead.

We'll be here on 5th May, I'll be collapsing onto the sofa with a beer after a hard day's campaigning and reading comments on here about how we'll finally see swingback on polling day instead of April/March/Jan/Autumn/Summer/2013 etc etc as promised.

EICIPM

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572033068443275264

Bond_James_Bond

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

I am simply numb at the otherworldliness of a place where people will wait 2 hours to get served at TGI Fridays.

I don't understand bingo or glue sniffing either.

Sunil_Prasannan

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

I am simply numb at the otherworldliness of a place where people will wait 2 hours to get served at TGI Fridays.

I don't understand bingo or glue sniffing either.

Maybe McDonalds and KFC were also heaving?

Pulpstar

RochdalePioneers said:

paulbarker said:

On topic, in March 2010 we has already endured two years of media speculation about the date of the Election. This time, nothing. Most voters will think seriously about their choice when they feel they have to, probably not till mid April. At that point the polls will shift very quickly & many "Experts/Pundits" will explode. Messy.

Whilst there are an awful lot of don't knows out there (as other activists will confirm), this sounds like the final pushing of the goalposts as to when we will finally see that fat Tory lead.

We'll be here on 5th May, I'll be collapsing onto the sofa with a beer after a hard day's campaigning and reading comments on here about how we'll finally see swingback on polling day instead of April/March/Jan/Autumn/Summer/2013 etc etc as promised.

EICIPM

Who will you be campaigning for and which seat ?

Wouldn't bother with Rochdale, Danczuk will romp home.

Scrapheap_as_was

Slowly recovering after the trauma of yesterday.. it's going to take some time.

I actually spoke to someone last month who was looking forward to Labour getting back in - that's 1 person.

Everyone else I speak with (providers, advisers, clients) none of them expect Ed Miliband to be PM or Ed Balls as Chancellor.

I often say we need to plan 'what if' they get in and what it means for the tax planning we're doing or could do now... it's always 'you don't really think they will get back in do you, I can't see it'

Bond_James_Bond

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Bond_James_Bond said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

coolagorna said:

currystar said:

grf said:

DavidL said:

They have produced the fastest growing economy in Europe. They have been unbelievably successful in creating employment. They have reduced the size of the State markedly but in ways that relatively few people notice. They have substantially reduced the deficit. They have increased health spending in real terms. They have taken millions of the lower paid out of tax. They have increased taxes on the wealthy to compensate. .

Some of the statistics above are a little suspect. And as these don't seem to meet peoples real world experiences, the Tories aren't ahead in the polls. It is no good saying how good things are if people aren't feeling it, and some aren't.

England is a totally different place to 5 years ago. I dont accept that people are not experiencing the recovery. Just go to a town on a Saturday and look at the restaurants, jammed full, queues out the door. People have a lot more disposable income than 5 years ago and are spending it. They are just not giving the Government any credit for it.

Seriously that description is the complete reverse of the situation here in
Sheffield (and across the North)..From 97 to 08 the
feelgood factor was a reality not a catchphrase but now
its completely different

Hardly surprising when average wages have been behind the
inflation rate for virtually the entire period and public sector wages
and working age benefits have all been held down below inflation
and continue to be now

Where do you go out on a Saturday? Kensington and Chelsea
where you bump into Rifkind et al throwing his 5k bungs about

Sheffield is booming. 2 hour to get served at TGIs on Friday.

I am simply numb at the otherworldliness of a place where people will wait 2 hours to get served at TGI Fridays.

I don't understand bingo or glue sniffing either.

Maybe McDonalds and KFC were also heaving?

After a "meal" at any of those, it would be me that was heaving.

Bond_James_Bond

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Slowly recovering after the trauma of yesterday.. it's going to take some time.

I actually spoke to someone last month who was looking forward to Labour getting back in - that's 1 person.

Everyone else I speak with (providers, advisers, clients) none of them expect Ed Miliband to be PM or Ed Balls as Chancellor.

I often say we need to plan 'what if' they get in and what it means for the tax planning we're doing or could do now... it's always 'you don't really think they will get back in do you, I can't see it'

What's the point, really, of tax planning ahead of a Labour government? Why wouldn't Labour just introduce retrospective taxation? Nothing that I can see prevents them from abolishing or lowering the tax-exempt status of ISAs, for example.