On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
One Nation means bringing the working class into society and serving all citizens equally, supporting a mixed economy.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
It is accepted that energy costs are crippling many and businesses which are loaded with climate change costs
Nothing to do with views but our economy and people's jobs
Apparently Beefeater announced the closure of their chain of106 restaurants yesterday
Best summary I have seen of the Farage situation from Ben Habib strangely.
Anyone who's got the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, the police, National Crime Agency, FCA, and potentially HMRC after them, any one of them would rattle a normal person.
The broad spectrum lawfare against Big Nige helps reinforce his lament that the establishment are out to get him.
Delusional. While the faithful will continue to make offerings at the shrine, for the 70+% the receiving of £5million on the quiet from a tricky source is enough. Farage is such an establishment figure that his party is leading in the polls, he is a big mate of POTUS and has lots of plutocratic friends. His behaviour shows that he is out to get himself. In politics each bit of the establishment uses the data they can to do down other bits of the establishment.
Taking large sums of money from dubious characters via washing machine mechanisms like crypto and relatives of the giver is exactly what triggers investigations across the board. And then add in the ongoing crackdowns on political money.
Complaining that it gets lots of investigation is in the “petrol fight while smoking” category of stupid
A recipe for a summer spritz cocktail overstated the amount of elderflower liqueur by some margin: 35ml was the intended measure, not 235ml (The good mixer, 18 July, Feast, p15).
Oscar Wilde famously remarked the one thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.
Kemi Badenoch has no such fears on PB - she's always close to the conversation which I think speaks volumes to the political demographic of PB.
Fair enough - I think Andy Burnham represents a far greater challenge than Keir Starmer ever did. How she responds to that challenge will be either the making of her or the breaking of her.
The outlines of a distinctive Conservative offering are appearing but the Devil will be in the detail - whose benefits will be cut when and by how much? Declaring war on pensioners by abolishing the Triple Lock for example seems an electorally fraught move - promising tax cuts here, abolishing stamp duty there, spending more on defence all sound good but the cynic in me will rightly ask how all this is to be paid.
The crunch for her will be having to stand up and defend welfare cuts - you can be sure those affected will shout the loudest.
She may be fortunate inasmuch as by 2029, rather like 1979, the prevailing sentiment will be "we cannot go on like this" and there will be more support for the kind of economic restructuring she might be advocating in terms of supply side reforms etc.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
It is accepted that energy costs are crippling many and businesses which are loaded with climate change costs
Nothing to do with views but our economy and people's jobs
Apparently Beefeater announced the closure of their chain of106 restaurants yesterday
You cannot keep loading costs onto business
Ah, Beefeater - the Stodge family used to frequent them in the 1970s.
It became a racing term - it's a Beefeater meeting - very small stakes !!
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
I fully agree with this, being a 50 years Tory voter (in general elections) but now lost to them. The Tories without a centrist middle class, including a public sector middle class, is a lost cause in the long run.
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
The 'New Conservatives' = Kemi fan club. Seems about right. She appears to be putting a lot of weight behind her ratings and less on the party's share.
Would not be surprised if my solid blue Conservative MP heads to the dark side just prior to the next GE.
Oscar Wilde famously remarked the one thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.
Kemi Badenoch has no such fears on PB - she's always close to the conversation which I think speaks volumes to the political demographic of PB.
Fair enough - I think Andy Burnham represents a far greater challenge than Keir Starmer ever did. How she responds to that challenge will be either the making of her or the breaking of her.
The outlines of a distinctive Conservative offering are appearing but the Devil will be in the detail - whose benefits will be cut when and by how much? Declaring war on pensioners by abolishing the Triple Lock for example seems an electorally fraught move - promising tax cuts here, abolishing stamp duty there, spending more on defence all sound good but the cynic in me will rightly ask how all this is to be paid.
The crunch for her will be having to stand up and defend welfare cuts - you can be sure those affected will shout the loudest.
She may be fortunate inasmuch as by 2029, rather like 1979, the prevailing sentiment will be "we cannot go on like this" and there will be more support for the kind of economic restructuring she might be advocating in terms of supply side reforms etc.
The big question with Burnham is whether he can actually do anything. Starmer got to the point of complaining he couldn’t do what he wanted.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
It is accepted that energy costs are crippling many and businesses which are loaded with climate change costs
Nothing to do with views but our economy and people's jobs
Apparently Beefeater announced the closure of their chain of106 restaurants yesterday
You cannot keep loading costs onto business
The Beefeater/ Brewers Fayre closure seems to be more at the whim of the CEO of Whitbread. Whitbread CEOs seem to have spent the last few years liquidating assets like Costa and when they can't sell they shut the doors. A year or two a go the CEO wanted to close down the Premier Inn breakfast service, something which is central to their only remaining value asset. They doesn't appear to be a practical business people to me.
In addition the Beefeater, Brewer's Fayre offering seems to me to have been a very poor copy of the Bernie Inn of the 1980s for decades. No one wants add water and stir rubbish.
Yes, Burnham would only call an early general election if Labour had returned to over 30% in the polls consistently and a clear 10%+ poll lead over Reform. His bounce has only brought Labour to neck and neck with Reform so that won't happen.
As TSE says though Reform and Labour are now the top two in the polls so in most marginal seats Burnham Labour can squeeze the LDs and Greens to beat Reform, while the evidence suggests fewer Tories will tactically vote Reform to beat Labour. Seats where it will still be Labour v Tory and Labour will find tactical votes harder to get are mainly confined to London and the most prosperous parts of the home counties which did not go LD in 2024
Oscar Wilde famously remarked the one thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.
Kemi Badenoch has no such fears on PB - she's always close to the conversation which I think speaks volumes to the political demographic of PB.
Fair enough - I think Andy Burnham represents a far greater challenge than Keir Starmer ever did. How she responds to that challenge will be either the making of her or the breaking of her.
The outlines of a distinctive Conservative offering are appearing but the Devil will be in the detail - whose benefits will be cut when and by how much? Declaring war on pensioners by abolishing the Triple Lock for example seems an electorally fraught move - promising tax cuts here, abolishing stamp duty there, spending more on defence all sound good but the cynic in me will rightly ask how all this is to be paid.
The crunch for her will be having to stand up and defend welfare cuts - you can be sure those affected will shout the loudest.
She may be fortunate inasmuch as by 2029, rather like 1979, the prevailing sentiment will be "we cannot go on like this" and there will be more support for the kind of economic restructuring she might be advocating in terms of supply side reforms etc.
The big question with Burnham is whether he can actually do anything. Starmer got to the point of complaining he couldn’t do what he wanted.
I'd argue the big question is not what Burnham can or cannot do - it's what Farage and Badenoch would try to do and asking why or if they would be any more successful.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
The 'New Conservatives' = Kemi fan club. Seems about right. She appears to be putting a lot of weight behind her ratings and less on the party's share.
Would not be surprised if my solid blue Conservative MP heads to the dark side just prior to the next GE.
Because more Conservative MPs is just what Farage needs to see his vote share to continue going down.
Reform need some Labour defectors. Hard to see them wanting to face questions on the doorstep about "that five million quid" though.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
It is accepted that energy costs are crippling many and businesses which are loaded with climate change costs
Nothing to do with views but our economy and people's jobs
Apparently Beefeater announced the closure of their chain of106 restaurants yesterday
You cannot keep loading costs onto business
The Beefeater/ Brewers Fayre closure seems to be more at the whim of the CEO of Whitbread. Whitbread CEOs seem to have spent the last few years liquidating assets like Costa and when they can't sell they shut the doors. A year or two a go the CEO wanted to close down the Premier Inn breakfast service, something which is central to their only remaining value asset. They doesn't appear to be a practical business people to me.
In addition the Beefeater, Brewer's Fayre offering seems to me to have been a very poor copy of the Bernie Inn of the 1980s for decades. No one wants add water and stir rubbish.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
If you think that's Kemi Badenoch actual energy policy, or that she even has a thought out energy policy, I have a transition bridge to sell you.
That's the problem with government by slogans. There's nothing behind them.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
I fully agree with this, being a 50 years Tory voter (in general elections) but now lost to them. The Tories without a centrist middle class, including a public sector middle class, is a lost cause in the long run.
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
Eh? The Tories are now polling best in the higher category on 22%, to 20% in the Intermediate category and just 19% with Routine groups.
Indeed, the only group where Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 parties is those in the higher social class category, with Labour on 27%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on just 17% and the LDs on 15%.
Whereas Reform lead with Intermediate and Routine groups on 28% and 30% and Labour, the traditional party of the working class is now only third with its former core vote on just 17% and 16% behind even the Tories in those groups on 20% and 19%
A recipe for a summer spritz cocktail overstated the amount of elderflower liqueur by some margin: 35ml was the intended measure, not 235ml (The good mixer, 18 July, Feast, p15).
The Guardian is not aiming itself at the poor is it? With its 235ml of St Germain liqueur, that's half the bottle at +£20 a time + champagne (not eh cheapest) + everything else it ends up costing a few bob a time.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
"they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive."
Doubt it. That's a complete waste of money.
I am getting plenty of adverts to vote Tory on Thursday.
It's about helping set a narrative, the problem for the Tories I alluded to in the header is that they need to be seen as the principal opponent's to Labour, not Reform, if they aren't then they get seen as a wasted vote at the next GE.
Yes, but Greater Manchester isn't where that happens and Reform will be a very clear second.
We heard all this "Tories still aren't winning in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle" stuff under Cameron in the noughties.
Which is about as relevant as 'Labour still aren't winning in rural Britain and our villages' as neither have a hope of winning them, the Tories will never win inner cities and Labour will never sweep rural Britain. It is towns and suburbs where general elections are won
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
The 'New Conservatives' = Kemi fan club. Seems about right. She appears to be putting a lot of weight behind her ratings and less on the party's share.
Would not be surprised if my solid blue Conservative MP heads to the dark side just prior to the next GE.
Because more Conservative MPs is just what Farage needs to see his vote share to continue going down.
Reform need some Labour defectors. Hard to see them wanting to face questions on the doorstep about "that five million quid" though.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
Changing the national and introducing local grids would take about the same time as new licenses to become active. It would cost a lot less, give us opportunities amongst the world and massively reduce energy costs within the UK.
The issue is not costs for net zero but the lack of movement in redesigning the way that the UK can take advantage of the massive amounts of electricity that are wasted by the current grid, never mind the planning hoops for terrestrial systems the Tories put in despite being the ones who introduced net zero.
I find it bizarre Kemi is fixated on denouncing a key policy for the Conservatives for the past 10 years. The Tories have long been the party of conservation, be that the WaC Act, BNG, Hedgerow Regs, Energy Act, coal and petrol phase outs etc etc.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
Changing the national and introducing local grids would take about the same time as new licenses to become active. It would cost a lot less, give us opportunities amongst the world and massively reduce energy costs within the UK.
The issue is not costs for net zero but the lack of movement in redesigning the way that the UK can take advantage of the massive amounts of electricity that are wasted by the current grid, never mind the planning hoops for terrestrial systems the Tories put in despite being the ones who introduced net zero.
I find it bizarre Kemi is fixated on denouncing a key policy for the Conservatives for the past 10 years. The Tories have long been the party of conservation, be that the WaC Act, BNG, Hedgerow Regs, Energy Act, coal and petrol phase outs etc etc.
Off topic, but perhaps timely, since this is Sunday:
In a collection, Humor, History, and Politics, edited by Guy Halsall, I found this story:
But people took them [Byzantine religious debates] in deadly earnest, for correct belief was crucial to correct practice, in other words to as sinless a life as possible; in turn, it was well known that if some elements of the Christian flock erred from the path of righteousness, then God might punish them all -- with a plague, a war, earthquakes, and other calamities. This is summed up very nicely in a mid-seventh century story about a certain abbot, to whom God appeared in a dream. 'Is it true that all rulers are appointed by heavenly command?' he asked. The answer was positive. 'Then why, O Lord, did you send the wicked tyrant Phocas to rule the Roman people?' 'Because', came the stern reply, 'I could find no one worse.'
Obviously, I can't stop anyone from finding a lesson for us in that story.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
The 'New Conservatives' = Kemi fan club. Seems about right. She appears to be putting a lot of weight behind her ratings and less on the party's share.
Would not be surprised if my solid blue Conservative MP heads to the dark side just prior to the next GE.
Because more Conservative MPs is just what Farage needs to see his vote share to continue going down.
Reform need some Labour defectors. Hard to see them wanting to face questions on the doorstep about "that five million quid" though.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
I fully agree with this, being a 50 years Tory voter (in general elections) but now lost to them. The Tories without a centrist middle class, including a public sector middle class, is a lost cause in the long run.
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
Eh? The Tories are now polling best in the higher category on 22%, to 20% in the Intermediate category and just 19% with Routine groups.
Indeed, the only group where Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 parties is those in the higher social class category, with Labour on 27%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on just 17% and the LDs on 15%.
Whereas Reform lead with Intermediate and Routine groups on 28% and 30% and Labour, the traditional party of the working class is now only third with its former core vote on just 17% and 16% behind even the Tories in those groups on 20% and 19%
This slightly misses the point. The majority of the middle class votes left of centre. 78% of the middle class doesn't vote Tory. This is an existential crisis for the party.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
Changing the national and introducing local grids would take about the same time as new licenses to become active. It would cost a lot less, give us opportunities amongst the world and massively reduce energy costs within the UK.
The issue is not costs for net zero but the lack of movement in redesigning the way that the UK can take advantage of the massive amounts of electricity that are wasted by the current grid, never mind the planning hoops for terrestrial systems the Tories put in despite being the ones who introduced net zero.
I find it bizarre Kemi is fixated on denouncing a key policy for the Conservatives for the past 10 years. The Tories have long been the party of conservation, be that the WaC Act, BNG, Hedgerow Regs, Energy Act, coal and petrol phase outs etc etc.
Local only grids is a recipe for load shedding and blackouts. You can manage demand a bit but at the end of the day you need to get the electricity from wherever the source is to wherever the demand is, down a wire. If the wires aren't up to the job as with the current National Grid you will have a system that is both wasteful and lacking resilience. Hence the big Grid upgrade.
But you raise an interesting general point. A lot of the cost of the energy transition it seems to me is investment in resilience. Would it be OK to have a lower cost system with less redundancy, which works most of the time, but fails occasionally?
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
I fully agree with this, being a 50 years Tory voter (in general elections) but now lost to them. The Tories without a centrist middle class, including a public sector middle class, is a lost cause in the long run.
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
Eh? The Tories are now polling best in the higher category on 22%, to 20% in the Intermediate category and just 19% with Routine groups.
Indeed, the only group where Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 parties is those in the higher social class category, with Labour on 27%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on just 17% and the LDs on 15%.
Whereas Reform lead with Intermediate and Routine groups on 28% and 30% and Labour, the traditional party of the working class is now only third with its former core vote on just 17% and 16% behind even the Tories in those groups on 20% and 19%
This slightly misses the point. The majority of the middle class votes left of centre. 78% of the middle class doesn't vote Tory. This is an existential crisis for the party.
No it doesn't, only 49% of those in the higher class vote Labour or Green and the LDs were in government with the Tories only just over 10 years ago.
The Tories still lead Reform with middle class voters, so while Reform lead Labour with working class voters, the Tories reach middle class voters still Reform can't
We had a discussion on the last thread about compute in space, and why it doesn't stack up. Here's a detailed counter argument, which isn't completely implausible. (It's also a pretty good analysis of SpaceX without the orbital compute.)
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
I fully agree with this, being a 50 years Tory voter (in general elections) but now lost to them. The Tories without a centrist middle class, including a public sector middle class, is a lost cause in the long run.
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
Eh? The Tories are now polling best in the higher category on 22%, to 20% in the Intermediate category and just 19% with Routine groups.
Indeed, the only group where Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 parties is those in the higher social class category, with Labour on 27%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on just 17% and the LDs on 15%.
Whereas Reform lead with Intermediate and Routine groups on 28% and 30% and Labour, the traditional party of the working class is now only third with its former core vote on just 17% and 16% behind even the Tories in those groups on 20% and 19%
This slightly misses the point. The majority of the middle class votes left of centre. 78% of the middle class doesn't vote Tory. This is an existential crisis for the party.
No it doesn't, only 49% of those in the higher class vote Labour or Green and the LDs were in government with the Tories only just over 10 years ago.
The Tories still lead Reform with middle class voters, so while Reform lead Labour with working class voters, the Tories reach middle class voters still Reform can't
I am content with Kemi and the conservative party and the siren voices on here are entitled to their view
However, you do not achieve a plus approval rate with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi if you are not cutting through and predicting the demise of the conservative party is either wishful thinking or hope
There is a lot to happen over the next 3 years and predicting the next GE is impossible
Burnham may win but who knows even Kemi may upset all the predictions and become the next PM
I expect it to be one or the other as I do not see Farage as a threat for the next GE
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
I fully agree with this, being a 50 years Tory voter (in general elections) but now lost to them. The Tories without a centrist middle class, including a public sector middle class, is a lost cause in the long run.
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
Eh? The Tories are now polling best in the higher category on 22%, to 20% in the Intermediate category and just 19% with Routine groups.
Indeed, the only group where Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 parties is those in the higher social class category, with Labour on 27%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on just 17% and the LDs on 15%.
Whereas Reform lead with Intermediate and Routine groups on 28% and 30% and Labour, the traditional party of the working class is now only third with its former core vote on just 17% and 16% behind even the Tories in those groups on 20% and 19%
This slightly misses the point. The majority of the middle class votes left of centre. 78% of the middle class doesn't vote Tory. This is an existential crisis for the party.
No it doesn't, only 49% of those in the higher class vote Labour or Green and the LDs were in government with the Tories only just over 10 years ago.
The Tories still lead Reform with middle class voters, so while Reform lead Labour with working class voters, the Tories reach middle class voters still Reform can't
I am content with Kemi and the conservative party and the siren voices on here are entitled to their view
However, you do not achieve a plus approval rate with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi if you are not cutting through and predicting the demise of the conservative party is either wishful thinking or hope
There is a lot to happen over the next 3 years and predicting the next GE is impossible
Burnham may win but who knows even Kemi may upset all the predictions and become the next PM
I expect it to be one or the other as I do not see Farage as a threat for the next GE
Or rather let Farage concentrate on winning Labour held seats in the Northern redwall and Midlands and Wales and let Kemi concentrate on winning Labour seats in London and the South and a few SNP seats in Scotland.
Reform and the Tories only really need to fight each other in the 124 existing Tory held seats and the handful of seats Reform won from the Tories at the last general election, especially in areas like Kent and Essex and East Anglia, which is less than a quarter of the total number of seats in the Commons
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Could be worse, they could Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.
‘My son was on my wife’s lap when the IDF shot him dead’
In a land besieged by settler terror, baby Sam is one of 259 Palestinian children killed since the atrocities of October 7
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
We had a discussion on the last thread about compute in space, and why it doesn't stack up. Here's a detailed counter argument, which isn't completely implausible. (It's also a pretty good analysis of SpaceX without the orbital compute.)
I'm still hyper sceptical for a number of reasons, but the idea of running compute in space isn't completely impractical (more likely that the economics don't stack up against earthbound alternatives), and it's certainly physically possible (note Google's radiation testing of their chip).
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
Best summary I have seen of the Farage situation from Ben Habib strangely.
Anyone who's got the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner, the police, National Crime Agency, FCA, and potentially HMRC after them, any one of them would rattle a normal person.
Should have said the whole interview is worth a watch. Farage's political career was always about amassing as much money as possible according to Habib. Money was never the means to getting power. Hence the tens of millions of dodgy money.
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
The policy on net zero is all about transition and to do it in a way that doesn't cripple homes and businesses with excessive charges
Define "cripple" and "excessive". Does it include "not spoiling the view"?
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
It is accepted that energy costs are crippling many and businesses which are loaded with climate change costs
Nothing to do with views but our economy and people's jobs
Apparently Beefeater announced the closure of their chain of106 restaurants yesterday
You cannot keep loading costs onto business
Whitbread announced the closure of their non Premier Inn business months ago but they’ve been quietly closing it down for over a decade
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Could be worse, they could Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.
‘My son was on my wife’s lap when the IDF shot him dead’
In a land besieged by settler terror, baby Sam is one of 259 Palestinian children killed since the atrocities of October 7
Shall we talk about the racist/apartheid like new law that leads to the death penalty for Palestinians but not for Jews Dame Maureen?
Fun fact, Dave (pbuh) who is advising Kemi is not a fan of Israel's behaviour.
Oh I know, and the Israel-Gaza war is something I try not to comment on on PB because the commentary deteriorates into individual examples but statistics is about summarising and warfare statistics are very difficult to compile esp in real time, so I back away because I can't provide meaningful input. My intent was to put ML's change into context and provide a reason why she is vote switching.
I still think the next General Election date most favours May 3rd 2029, though I admit, last Monday changes things a bit. The Conservatives and their media friends should plan for an election happening sooner than May 2029.
Is the Murdock Sunday Paper today just reporting an interesting ongoing police investigation, with the only added something to keep their weekly Reform bash on front page being the Party’s Bank dobbed them in to police several years ago, because it is newsworthy enough today?
Or has Murdoch and team made a firm decision to stick with the Conservatives, consciously aware the only way to stick with and help the Conservatives in FPTP system, where tactical votes can produce lopsided sided results - my recent header flagged this with evidence - meaning the focussed headspace is to KILL REFORM OFF completely - and, as Farage himself would put it - aye-sap?
I’m moving on to the next logical questions in this sequence. Will all Murdochs media take an increasingly campaigning, attack dog line to Kill Off Reform? And will they be joined by others, in fact the whole of the right wing media?
For four crazy years, the right wing media have been in a wishy washy dibblydobbly headspace, regards the two right wing parties cancelling each other out handing the centre and left unearned electoral treasure - will they all now make this same rational decision as the Sunday Times ownership appears to have done, and kill off Reform as quickly as possible, to help the Conservatives in an election which could come sooner rather than later?
How long before the Murdoch and slightly less extreme Right Wing Media pick up the cudgels for the hidden maelstrom forming like a torrid undercurrent under the kemification and idelological purge going on in the Tory Party. Potential mass deselection of current and former Tory MP;s and Candidates.
Not inconceivable that a well place header by Andy Street / Ruth Davison or both in the coming weeks could turn the 2026 Tory Party Conference in to something resembling the old internecine Bexit type splits between the centrists and the bog eyed kemiloons
Nope. You are completely wrong again - Brixo. That is such a weak, not understanding politics answer. I will now attempt to teach you, but suspect you are one of those at back of class, gazing out the window at the girls two years above you playing netball, and not even listening.
The right wing media have decided to kill Reform off completely to help Kemi’s Conservatives, because they absolutely love how proper right wing Kemi’s manifesto now is - and with her purge of “wets” how masterful, er, mistressful, she is in forcing those right wing policies through the commons.
After all, where did Kemi’s manifesto come from, if it wasn’t from being immersed in that same right wing reactionary glib echo chambers way of seeing what the priorities and answers are, this media has created and been indoctrinating its loyal followers with? So you are wrong, yet again the truth is completely the other way around from how you understand politics - you need to learn which way round the egg and chicken came -
They kill Reform to cheerlead for Kemi, because Kemi is cheerleading for them.
On topic. For Burnham’s Populism to work, he may have to go for the early General Election, before the Populist bounce wears off and starts being called out as just more of the same. So I wouldn’t take how he’s currently answering media questions about early GE, as certainty about what actually happens over the next 16 months.
I think you are insufficiently cynical, Mx Rabbit.
if the right wing side of the media are undermining Farage, it is for clicks and revenue.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
The problem with an discussion of Israel or Palistine is that it desends into labelling with both sides stamped them hard by the other. Genocide, Zionist, Antisemite; increasingly they are nothing more than clubs to hit the other side with.
We don't argue over what's in the jar, but how the jar is labled. Name calling rather than analysis.
What Hamas is is a product of what they needed to be to survive. A cell structured loose militia, made of of recruite driven by anger and just like all the other quazi militias, they lack discipline and restrained.
Back in 1982, iIraeli backed Militias killed somelike 3,000 in Sabra and Shatila in Beirut. Not the Israeli intent, though they wanted to break the PLO strangle hold on lebanon but a consequence of using and aiding these types of groups.
In Kosovo we havea narrative of Milošević letting slip his dogs of war to commit attrocities on his orders, but we should at least consider that our attacks broke his hold on the leash and once free they did what dogs do.
There is no excuse for what happened, but I think it is more likely that if they had had proper control and better discipline they would have not have wanted the civilian deaths that occurred. They hate the israeli's civilian and military but they aren't stupid. They may have been twisted by the conflict as many are after decade, but we see that throughout Africa with militias too.
All this is why I am not keen on the UK creating a Ranger battalion to train these sorts of groups or us using proxies.
I am not in any way justifying Hamas or what it does, but explaination isn't justification. Why it is what it is and did what it did can be explained without demonising it or turning it into propoganda for either side.
As to Israel, yes it has a right to self defence, but it's actions have been on the basis of independant evidence, both disproportionate and illegal in the targetting of civilians and civilian areas.
Thir defence of defeating terrorists carries no more weight than Putins defeating Facism in Ukraine. Two wrongs don't make a right and the ends don't justify the means.
Calling it genocide or arguing over if it is, simply muddies the waters and makes it about the labe not the facts.
Calling Israeli's who back it out of far Zionists is just as bad, as is calling people who think Israel's use of force is excessive or that the Palistinians should have their own State friends of Hamas.
I took the advice of some PBers and visited Ikea for a few essentials, and visited M&S food on the way for some treats - out that way they are in Giltbrook and Ilkeston.
It's still Ikea - 2 laundry baskets cost the same as a jar of Bilberry and a jar of Lingonberry Jam, and I came back with a fair amount of Ikea food, but there is a shift from wood to metal and recycled plastic afaics.
The M&S food mix seems to have shifted towards quick pleasant pre-or-semi-prepared, at interesting prices; I'll have to visit the large M&S in Mansfield and see what the food offering & pricing is like.
I took the advice of some PBers and visited Ikea for a few essentials, and visited M&S food on the way for some treats - out that way they are in Giltbrook and Ilkeston.
It's still Ikea - 2 laundry baskets cost the same as a jar of Bilberry and a jar of Lingonberry Jam, and I came back with a fair amount of Ikea food, but there is a shift from wood to metal and recycled plastic afaics.
The M&S food mix seems to have shifted towards quick pleasant pre-or-semi-prepared, at interesting prices; I'll have to visit the large M&S in Mansfield and see what the food offering & pricing is like.
We have a weekly Asda delivery for essentials, but buy M@S chicken, steak, fish, fruit and now my wife is celiac their 'made without' bread, muesli and healthy food
They concentrate on UK sourced food and it is more expensive but in our view well worth the difference
We are fortunate not to be constrained by price, but recommend you take time in a M@S food store and you may well be pleasantly surprised
On topic, I think this is probably a wise decision by AB.
The aces in his hole (so to speak) are imo partly the long term things started by SKS which have either not surfaced yet, or not been noticed because SKS did not talk about them obsessively enough. Though some things could blow up in his face to an extent, such as the housing promises, though he can argue that he is semi-detached. On that one he needs to surpass the best done by the Cons by a fairly clear margin, and some of the Con numbers in certain years were better than we sometimes think.
I think AB also must make sure the game takes place on his home turf. I think his chances of that are reasonably good.
On topic, I think this is probably a wise decision by AB.
The aces in his hole (so to speak) are imo partly the long term things started by SKS which have either not surfaced yet, or not been noticed because SKS did not talk about them obsessively enough. Though some things could blow up in his face to an extent, such as the housing promises, though he can argue that he is semi-detached. On that one he needs to surpass the best done by the Cons by a fairly clear margin, and some of the Con numbers in certain years were better than we sometimes think.
I think AB also must make sure the game takes place on his home turf. I think his chances of that are reasonably good.
I think he is good for Labour as long as he is more Blairite than Corbynite, and certainly has got off to a good start
I hope he doesn't get carried away too much with no 10 North and not sure how this helps Scotand and Wales
Anyway, good Starmer and Reeves have gone and certainly he is a new challenge for the opposition including Kemi
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
On topic, I think this is probably a wise decision by AB.
The aces in his hole (so to speak) are imo partly the long term things started by SKS which have either not surfaced yet, or not been noticed because SKS did not talk about them obsessively enough. Though some things could blow up in his face to an extent, such as the housing promises, though he can argue that he is semi-detached. On that one he needs to surpass the best done by the Cons by a fairly clear margin, and some of the Con numbers in certain years were better than we sometimes think.
I think AB also must make sure the game takes place on his home turf. I think his chances of that are reasonably good.
What exactly are these long term things started by SKS?
SKS identified some problems that need fixes that will take a long time, like housing which requires planning reform, the problem is he's not actually done those reforms yet.
If you don't actually reform anything, then you have not really started anything yet and no long term benefits will arise.
I took the advice of some PBers and visited Ikea for a few essentials, and visited M&S food on the way for some treats - out that way they are in Giltbrook and Ilkeston.
It's still Ikea - 2 laundry baskets cost the same as a jar of Bilberry and a jar of Lingonberry Jam, and I came back with a fair amount of Ikea food, but there is a shift from wood to metal and recycled plastic afaics.
The M&S food mix seems to have shifted towards quick pleasant pre-or-semi-prepared, at interesting prices; I'll have to visit the large M&S in Mansfield and see what the food offering & pricing is like.
We have a weekly Asda delivery for essentials, but buy M@S chicken, steak, fish, fruit and now my wife is celiac their 'made without' bread, muesli and healthy food
They concentrate on UK sourced food and it is more expensive but in our view well worth the difference
We are fortunate not to be constrained by price, but recommend you take time in a M@S food store and you may well be pleasantly surprised
Yes - that's fair. For me it is a bit of a distance unless I am out that way. I have a few equivalents to try back to back with Aldi / Lidl / Morrisons / made from scratch; the pork I had for dinner and the egg custard pies were better flavoured (and the egg custard better cooked underneath, which is the test). I also have plenty of butchers round here, and several excellent farm shops.
I still am not much up for ASDA despite a huge on in the town centre except for booze on rare occasions, - Morrisons are still far better on fresh, fish and charcuterie, despite having been bought by private equity asset strippers, and discounters for the ordinary things.
I took the advice of some PBers and visited Ikea for a few essentials, and visited M&S food on the way for some treats - out that way they are in Giltbrook and Ilkeston.
It's still Ikea - 2 laundry baskets cost the same as a jar of Bilberry and a jar of Lingonberry Jam, and I came back with a fair amount of Ikea food, but there is a shift from wood to metal and recycled plastic afaics.
The M&S food mix seems to have shifted towards quick pleasant pre-or-semi-prepared, at interesting prices; I'll have to visit the large M&S in Mansfield and see what the food offering & pricing is like.
We have a weekly Asda delivery for essentials, but buy M@S chicken, steak, fish, fruit and now my wife is celiac their 'made without' bread, muesli and healthy food
They concentrate on UK sourced food and it is more expensive but in our view well worth the difference
We are fortunate not to be constrained by price, but recommend you take time in a M@S food store and you may well be pleasantly surprised
Yes - that's fair. For me it is a bit of a distance unless I am out that way. I have a few equivalents to try back to back with Aldi / Lidl / Morrisons / made from scratch; the pork I had for dinner and the egg custard pies were better flavoured (and the egg custard better cooked underneath, which is the test). I also have plenty of butchers round here, and several excellent farm shops.
I still am not much up for ASDA despite a huge on in the town centre except for booze on rare occasions, - Morrisons are still far better on fresh, fish and charcuterie, despite having been bought by private equity asset strippers, and discounters for the ordinary things.
We've just called in at Otley Waitrose on the way home from a walk.
One genuinely good thing Burnham has done is piss off the entire Westminster media establishment by (a) being northern and (b) not giving them his undivided attention. https://x.com/GarethDennis/status/2081294897076740472
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
The problem is he has been too soft on Hamas (at least historically) and too hard on Palestinian civilians.
There are simply too many examples of war crimes being committed to remain on the side of the Israeli government.
I think the only side left to root for is the civilians of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. Which requires you to be strongly against the actions of their governing bodies.
I took the advice of some PBers and visited Ikea for a few essentials, and visited M&S food on the way for some treats - out that way they are in Giltbrook and Ilkeston.
It's still Ikea - 2 laundry baskets cost the same as a jar of Bilberry and a jar of Lingonberry Jam, and I came back with a fair amount of Ikea food, but there is a shift from wood to metal and recycled plastic afaics.
The M&S food mix seems to have shifted towards quick pleasant pre-or-semi-prepared, at interesting prices; I'll have to visit the large M&S in Mansfield and see what the food offering & pricing is like.
Standard M&S (Simply Foods) outlets are there for you to pick up a ready meal on your way home from work, instead of buying a takeaway. Maybe a meal deal at lunch time. They are useless for actual shopping or if you want to prepare meals. The big M&S stores on the other hand are interesting.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
The problem is he has been too soft on Hamas (at least historically) and too hard on Palestinian civilians.
There are simply too many examples of war crimes being committed to remain on the side of the Israeli government.
I think the only side left to root for is the civilians of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. Which requires you to be strongly against the actions of their governing bodies.
Which is not difficult - Hamas and Netanyahu are both part of the problem.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Could be worse, they could Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.
‘My son was on my wife’s lap when the IDF shot him dead’
In a land besieged by settler terror, baby Sam is one of 259 Palestinian children killed since the atrocities of October 7
Shall we talk about the racist/apartheid like new law that leads to the death penalty for Palestinians but not for Jews Dame Maureen?
Fun fact, Dave (pbuh) who is advising Kemi is not a fan of Israel's behaviour.
Maureen Lipman is not an Israeli citizen and does not live there. Are you suggesting that English Jews like her should be slaughtered? Like the 18 English Jews killed on October 7, 2023. Or the 2 Jews killed on Yom Kippur in Manchester last yet. Or the English Jews the 2 defendants sentenced to a long period of imprisonment last December for planning a Batclan-style massacre of Jews with AK-47's in Manchester?
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
But the problem you fail to see is an understandable retribution for October 7th has predominantly been applied to Gazan (and Lebanese) women and children rather than Hamas terrorists.
Hamas and Netanyahu need each other to survive and thrive.
On topic, I think this is probably a wise decision by AB.
The aces in his hole (so to speak) are imo partly the long term things started by SKS which have either not surfaced yet, or not been noticed because SKS did not talk about them obsessively enough. Though some things could blow up in his face to an extent, such as the housing promises, though he can argue that he is semi-detached. On that one he needs to surpass the best done by the Cons by a fairly clear margin, and some of the Con numbers in certain years were better than we sometimes think.
I think AB also must make sure the game takes place on his home turf. I think his chances of that are reasonably good.
LOOOL. Long term things like chagos, abolishing jury trials, failing to get a grip on small boats....
On topic, I think this is probably a wise decision by AB.
The aces in his hole (so to speak) are imo partly the long term things started by SKS which have either not surfaced yet, or not been noticed because SKS did not talk about them obsessively enough. Though some things could blow up in his face to an extent, such as the housing promises, though he can argue that he is semi-detached. On that one he needs to surpass the best done by the Cons by a fairly clear margin, and some of the Con numbers in certain years were better than we sometimes think.
I think AB also must make sure the game takes place on his home turf. I think his chances of that are reasonably good.
What exactly are these long term things started by SKS?
SKS identified some problems that need fixes that will take a long time, like housing which requires planning reform, the problem is he's not actually done those reforms yet.
If you don't actually reform anything, then you have not really started anything yet and no long term benefits will arise.
That's a good challenge. Here are a few of the long term items which will be making it to the surface in my view. I can probably come up with a similar list of more "retail" items which should have been done / not been done, as I think we all can.
- Restarting Sure Start (ie support for new parents) in some areas. That was an excellent programme with widespread benefit. - Renters Rights (and refusing Rent Controls point-blank). - Increased minimum wage - at that income level it is recycled back into the economy. - Primary school breakfast clubs. - Planning Reform - maybe, I have not followed the detail. You have followed and you seem skeptical. - Ed Miliband unjamming the wind farm planning queue from "first-come, first-served" system to prioritize ready-to-build. - Streamlining EU trade and potentially EU travel. I think that last applies to pets, though I do not have pets and I do not know if it has happened yet, or what the benefit is. - I'm not yet clear on the impact Employment Rights legislation will have. - I think there has been a fair amount of important background work in the defence area, but that is slowly emerging - examples are the MOD housing estate, and recruitment. That is largely imo down to John Healey going carefully.
I think there are also things around that have only been started or consulted on, but I expect to come in, From my own areas of interest:
- Micro mobility vehicles and batteries, regulation and enforcement. - Rebasing road safety around targets is a good move, as we know they work. (We probably won't wholly agree on that one.). - Mobility aids consultation, but that is genuinely specialist until we see what happens. The existing laws are from pre-war, 1970 and 1988, and need a deep, considered overhaul. There are a huge number of problems and complications. - Setting up a Road Safety Investigation Branch, depending how well it is done. We have these for Air and Rail, but road is a far more complex and diverse environment used by ordinary citizens, and the potential gains are far greater. That should help take our practices towards "safety systems" (as per H&S) rather than a blame culture.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Could be worse, they could Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.
‘My son was on my wife’s lap when the IDF shot him dead’
In a land besieged by settler terror, baby Sam is one of 259 Palestinian children killed since the atrocities of October 7
Shall we talk about the racist/apartheid like new law that leads to the death penalty for Palestinians but not for Jews Dame Maureen?
Fun fact, Dave (pbuh) who is advising Kemi is not a fan of Israel's behaviour.
Maureen Lipman is not an Israeli citizen and does not live there. Are you suggesting that English Jews like her should be slaughtered? Like the 18 English Jews killed on October 7, 2023. Or the 2 Jews killed on Yom Kippur in Manchester last yet. Or the English Jews the 2 defendants sentenced to a long period of imprisonment last December for planning a Batclan-style massacre of Jews with AK-47's in Manchester?
BIB.
No and if you think that then you need to give your head a wobble.
Bad faith arguments like that are rubbish.
How would you like if I turned your comments like that around saying you are pro murdering Palestinians?
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
I still think the next General Election date most favours May 3rd 2029, though I admit, last Monday changes things a bit. The Conservatives and their media friends should plan for an election happening sooner than May 2029.
Is the Murdock Sunday Paper today just reporting an interesting ongoing police investigation, with the only added something to keep their weekly Reform bash on front page being the Party’s Bank dobbed them in to police several years ago, because it is newsworthy enough today?
Or has Murdoch and team made a firm decision to stick with the Conservatives, consciously aware the only way to stick with and help the Conservatives in FPTP system, where tactical votes can produce lopsided sided results - my recent header flagged this with evidence - meaning the focussed headspace is to KILL REFORM OFF completely - and, as Farage himself would put it - aye-sap?
I’m moving on to the next logical questions in this sequence. Will all Murdochs media take an increasingly campaigning, attack dog line to Kill Off Reform? And will they be joined by others, in fact the whole of the right wing media?
For four crazy years, the right wing media have been in a wishy washy dibblydobbly headspace, regards the two right wing parties cancelling each other out handing the centre and left unearned electoral treasure - will they all now make this same rational decision as the Sunday Times ownership appears to have done, and kill off Reform as quickly as possible, to help the Conservatives in an election which could come sooner rather than later?
How long before the Murdoch and slightly less extreme Right Wing Media pick up the cudgels for the hidden maelstrom forming like a torrid undercurrent under the kemification and idelological purge going on in the Tory Party. Potential mass deselection of current and former Tory MP;s and Candidates.
Not inconceivable that a well place header by Andy Street / Ruth Davison or both in the coming weeks could turn the 2026 Tory Party Conference in to something resembling the old internecine Bexit type splits between the centrists and the bog eyed kemiloons
Nope. You are completely wrong again - Brixo. That is such a weak, not understanding politics answer. I will now attempt to teach you, but suspect you are one of those at back of class, gazing out the window at the girls two years above you playing netball, and not even listening.
The right wing media have decided to kill Reform off completely to help Kemi’s Conservatives, because they absolutely love how proper right wing Kemi’s manifesto now is - and with her purge of “wets” how masterful, er, mistressful, she is in forcing those right wing policies through the commons.
After all, where did Kemi’s manifesto come from, if it wasn’t from being immersed in that same right wing reactionary glib echo chambers way of seeing what the priorities and answers are, this media has created and been indoctrinating its loyal followers with? So you are wrong, yet again the truth is completely the other way around from how you understand politics - you need to learn which way round the egg and chicken came -
They kill Reform to cheerlead for Kemi, because Kemi is cheerleading for them.
On topic. For Burnham’s Populism to work, he may have to go for the early General Election, before the Populist bounce wears off and starts being called out as just more of the same. So I wouldn’t take how he’s currently answering media questions about early GE, as certainty about what actually happens over the next 16 months.
I think you are insufficiently cynical, Mx Rabbit.
if the right wing side of the media are undermining Farage, it is for clicks and revenue.
Yes, I could be more cynical, it’s a fault of mine. It’s true old print media need clicks for relevancy and revenue. I was talking about the political angle. A key mood change.
Mail Express and Graph and Times make just about every front page political, even when there’s no real story there - just a dodgy Tory dossier like Mail today. And for a reason - owners editors and journalists at those news organisations want to steer and influence UK politics.
I’ll lift from my header the other day. Labour 63.2% of seats from just 33.7% votes. 23.7% gave Conservatives just 18.6% of seats. For four crazy years, the right wing media have been in a wishy washy dibblydobbly headspace regards the two right wing parties cancelling each other out, handing the centre and left unearned electoral treasure. It’s pointless - almost to point centre and left Parties laughing at the Daily Mail’s lack of focus and understanding, putting Tory Central Office outputs on Mail front page like today, whilst leaving Reform competing with Conservatives for same voter pool, and the electoral results we are seeing from cancelling each other out.
The realisation they need to kill the half baked politics and limited ceiling Reform Party offer, to actually help the Conservatives, is long overdue.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
you still are and forever will be a complete lunatic
I still think the next General Election date most favours May 3rd 2029, though I admit, last Monday changes things a bit. The Conservatives and their media friends should plan for an election happening sooner than May 2029.
Is the Murdock Sunday Paper today just reporting an interesting ongoing police investigation, with the only added something to keep their weekly Reform bash on front page being the Party’s Bank dobbed them in to police several years ago, because it is newsworthy enough today?
Or has Murdoch and team made a firm decision to stick with the Conservatives, consciously aware the only way to stick with and help the Conservatives in FPTP system, where tactical votes can produce lopsided sided results - my recent header flagged this with evidence - meaning the focussed headspace is to KILL REFORM OFF completely - and, as Farage himself would put it - aye-sap?
I’m moving on to the next logical questions in this sequence. Will all Murdochs media take an increasingly campaigning, attack dog line to Kill Off Reform? And will they be joined by others, in fact the whole of the right wing media?
For four crazy years, the right wing media have been in a wishy washy dibblydobbly headspace, regards the two right wing parties cancelling each other out handing the centre and left unearned electoral treasure - will they all now make this same rational decision as the Sunday Times ownership appears to have done, and kill off Reform as quickly as possible, to help the Conservatives in an election which could come sooner rather than later?
How long before the Murdoch and slightly less extreme Right Wing Media pick up the cudgels for the hidden maelstrom forming like a torrid undercurrent under the kemification and idelological purge going on in the Tory Party. Potential mass deselection of current and former Tory MP;s and Candidates.
Not inconceivable that a well place header by Andy Street / Ruth Davison or both in the coming weeks could turn the 2026 Tory Party Conference in to something resembling the old internecine Bexit type splits between the centrists and the bog eyed kemiloons
Nope. You are completely wrong again - Brixo. That is such a weak, not understanding politics answer. I will now attempt to teach you, but suspect you are one of those at back of class, gazing out the window at the girls two years above you playing netball, and not even listening.
The right wing media have decided to kill Reform off completely to help Kemi’s Conservatives, because they absolutely love how proper right wing Kemi’s manifesto now is - and with her purge of “wets” how masterful, er, mistressful, she is in forcing those right wing policies through the commons.
After all, where did Kemi’s manifesto come from, if it wasn’t from being immersed in that same right wing reactionary glib echo chambers way of seeing what the priorities and answers are, this media has created and been indoctrinating its loyal followers with? So you are wrong, yet again the truth is completely the other way around from how you understand politics - you need to learn which way round the egg and chicken came -
They kill Reform to cheerlead for Kemi, because Kemi is cheerleading for them.
On topic. For Burnham’s Populism to work, he may have to go for the early General Election, before the Populist bounce wears off and starts being called out as just more of the same. So I wouldn’t take how he’s currently answering media questions about early GE, as certainty about what actually happens over the next 16 months.
I think you are insufficiently cynical, Mx Rabbit.
if the right wing side of the media are undermining Farage, it is for clicks and revenue.
Yes, I could be more cynical, it’s a fault of mine. It’s true old print media need clicks for relevancy and revenue. I was talking about the political angle. A key mood change.
Mail Express and Graph and Times make just about every front page political, even when there’s no real story there - just a dodgy Tory dossier like Mail today. And for a reason - owners editors and journalists at those news organisations want to steer and influence UK politics.
I’ll lift from my header the other day. Labour 63.2% of seats from just 33.7% votes. 23.7% gave Conservatives just 18.6% of seats. For four crazy years, the right wing media have been in a wishy washy dibblydobbly headspace regards the two right wing parties cancelling each other out, handing the centre and left unearned electoral treasure. It’s pointless - almost to point centre and left Parties laughing at the Daily Mail’s lack of focus and understanding, putting Tory Central Office outputs on Mail front page like today, whilst leaving Reform competing with Conservatives for same voter pool, and the electoral results we are seeing from cancelling each other out.
The realisation they need to kill the half baked politics and limited ceiling Reform Party offer, to actually help the Conservatives, is long overdue.
I don't read the Mail, Express, Telegraph or the Times.
My impression (and I don't do impressions) is the Express is still riding both Reform and Conservative horses and the Mail, for all its dalliance with Reform, has never really deserted the Conservatives.
All the above are of course far more anti-Labour and anti-"Left" than they are pro-Conservative or pro-Reform and whichever vehicle looks the one to rid the country of the "evil" Labour Government is the one to be on - hence the Mail's desperate "campaign" to "unite the Right" even when Reform have publicly called for the destruction of the Conservative Party.
A Labour Government with few friends in the printed media -who'd have thunk it? It's an argument for not allowing British newspapers to be owned by foreign nationals.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
you still are and forever will be a complete lunatic
Lunacy is repeating the same mistakes and expecting other outcomes. Like having a repeated cycle of ceasefire, hatred, conflict, ceasefire.
Victory can break the cycle of violence. The Nazis are gone, the Tamil Tigers are gone. Imperial Japan reformed to save itself.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
you still are and forever will be a complete lunatic
Lunacy is repeating the same mistakes and expecting other outcomes. Like having a repeated cycle of ceasefire, hatred, conflict, ceasefire.
Victory can break the cycle of violence. The Nazis are gone, the Tamil Tigers are gone. Imperial Japan reformed to save itself.
Victory works better than stalemate.
Hmmm Tamil Tigers were fighting genuine oppression and had the vast majority of support of the Tamil people. You obviously are unable to understand nuance and parrot off something you read a while ago. Ask and learn my friend…
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
you still are and forever will be a complete lunatic
Lunacy is repeating the same mistakes and expecting other outcomes. Like having a repeated cycle of ceasefire, hatred, conflict, ceasefire.
Victory can break the cycle of violence. The Nazis are gone, the Tamil Tigers are gone. Imperial Japan reformed to save itself.
Victory works better than stalemate.
You can understand where the Russian ultras on Telegram are coming from when they say nothing less than an all out war of annihilation and total victory will ever bring the Ukrainian Nazis to heel, I suppose.
*"His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, CBE, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular"
On topic - I'm expecting an earlier election simply because there is a risk of Reform imploding so holding an election as it implodes rather than after it's gone would be the sensible approach...
So I wouldn't 100% rule out 2027 as the sane choice.
What's striking is that no one is calling for an early election, in complete contrast to the last three or four times that the PM changed mid term.
Lots of reasons of course but the main one is that no one actually wants one right now. Reform would have a year ago but are on the slide. The Tories are basically nowhere. The greens are fading as their leaders balloon has burst on the twin boobs of failing to obey the law and actual scrutiny. The lib dems have made no impression on moving their vote share despite the government travails.
So no one wants an early election.
Shows just how cynical all those who repeatedly called for them in previous times were.
One of the reasons I am told that the Tories aren't keen on fighting a snap election is that they don't have a pot to piss in at the moment and they have to run a full campaign for the Greater Manchester Mayoral campaign which is expensive.
Also candidate selection, the other issue that some people are on the Tory candidate list who are also looking to join Reform....
I bet they regret returning £15m to Frank 'Dianne Abbott should be shot' Hester.
They did return it, didn't they?
Oh.
'Diane Abbott row: Tory minister says they'd take more cash from donor Frank Hester'
So Kemi's claims she has raised millions are about as accurate as her claims when she was in charge of International Trade and signed dozens of deals on worse terms!
I think on this occasion Burnham is wise not to be anything but form on the date.
The Country is sick and tired of the churn and short termism.
If he goes is 229 he can go with a message of stability and a manifesto for 5 -10 years with hopefully a degree of trust.
Farage I doubt will be the threat he still is, Tories will desperately need to wake up and realise the centre round is where they should be and not hard right where they are being taken. If there is an exodus of Tories it is more likely to be to LD's in strategically plausible incumbent hold deats across the South and Home Counties. Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables.
'Tories who are pro EU and pro renewables' have a ready made home in the Lib Dems
@HYUFD who is the best one to listen to on the conservative party, though we have our disagreements, has already made this point not least because the conservative party will not re-join the EU and wants to ameliorate the cost of domestic bills by reducing the climate change levies by £200 pa. Also open up the North Sea which seems to be likely now.
The ECHR is a problem across Europe with individual EU countries seeking to exclude immigration from their remit, and even introduce Rwanda style schemes
You have a 'bee in your bonnet' about Kemi but look at her polling and approval rates and note that she and Andy Burnham are the only leaders with positive ratings
The next 12 months will be the Andy v Kemi show, not least because Kemi is the leader of the opposition, and it promises to be interesting
So are you happy for her to basically deselect or refuse to select Politicians who are in support of net zero or some form of renewable POlicy or are in support of the basic tenets and vast majority of EHCR guidelines.
Are you happy for very good people like Street and Davison walk away?
Kemi is creating a new conservative party and yes, if they do not support her policies why would she allow them to stand ?
Because without a broad centre right coalition including the intelligent and thoughtful One Nation party it is impossible for the Tories to win 325 seats would be a top reason and quite enough for now.
You mean pro EU and net zero then one nation
One Nation will do fine thanks. It is worth noting that Labour, currently the government and likely to still be after the next election, are stuffed full of MPs and members who are pro EU but don't have now, or any plan to have, a policy of rejoining the EU.
As to net zero, most UK politicians don't accept that climate change caused by CO2 is a hoax. SFAICS it isn't even Reform policy as such. I don't think Kemi has said it's all a big lie. The policy of CO2 emissions is all about timing and bilateral movement with other emitters, not about principle.
Badenoch doesn't own the Conservative Party in the way Farage owns Reform. It belongs to the members who share the same principles (private enterprise, national cohesion, personal responsibility, for example). How those principles evolve into policies is the daily grind of big tent party politics and for Badenoch to short-circuit the process by excluding everyone who disagrees with her does not bode well. The Wets are drifting to the Libdems and the Dries are drifting to Reform, leaving behind the unelectable residue of her personal fan club. It's easy to see why the Tories chose her ("We're desperate. Let's try a girl from Lagos. We've never done it before"), less easy to imagine how it will succeed in practice. Her divisive policies are actually an irrelevance because she's never going to be in a position to enact them. She'll end up in the dustbin of history where Liz Truss awaits her, but at least she won't be expected to rock up to the Cenotaph every November.
I fully agree with this, being a 50 years Tory voter (in general elections) but now lost to them. The Tories without a centrist middle class, including a public sector middle class, is a lost cause in the long run.
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
Eh? The Tories are now polling best in the higher category on 22%, to 20% in the Intermediate category and just 19% with Routine groups.
Indeed, the only group where Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 parties is those in the higher social class category, with Labour on 27%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on just 17% and the LDs on 15%.
Whereas Reform lead with Intermediate and Routine groups on 28% and 30% and Labour, the traditional party of the working class is now only third with its former core vote on just 17% and 16% behind even the Tories in those groups on 20% and 19%
This slightly misses the point. The majority of the middle class votes left of centre. 78% of the middle class doesn't vote Tory. This is an existential crisis for the party.
No it doesn't, only 49% of those in the higher class vote Labour or Green and the LDs were in government with the Tories only just over 10 years ago.
The Tories still lead Reform with middle class voters, so while Reform lead Labour with working class voters, the Tories reach middle class voters still Reform can't
I am content with Kemi and the conservative party and the siren voices on here are entitled to their view
However, you do not achieve a plus approval rate with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi if you are not cutting through and predicting the demise of the conservative party is either wishful thinking or hope
There is a lot to happen over the next 3 years and predicting the next GE is impossible
Burnham may win but who knows even Kemi may upset all the predictions and become the next PM
I expect it to be one or the other as I do not see Farage as a threat for the next GE
Or rather let Farage concentrate on winning Labour held seats in the Northern redwall and Midlands and Wales and let Kemi concentrate on winning Labour seats in London and the South and a few SNP seats in Scotland.
Reform and the Tories only really need to fight each other in the 124 existing Tory held seats and the handful of seats Reform won from the Tories at the last general election, especially in areas like Kent and Essex and East Anglia, which is less than a quarter of the total number of seats in the Commons
“let Farage concentrate on winning Labour held seats in the Northern redwall and Midlands and Wales and let Kemi concentrate on winning Labour seats in London and the South and a few SNP seats in Scotland.”
I am sure your electoral logic is bankrupt there. Specifically Labour areas will switch to Reform in great quantities at a Parliamentary election.
When Labour had a bad locals that boosted Burnham’s takeover, 4 of their voters went left, to to just 1 right to Reform.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
you still are and forever will be a complete lunatic
Lunacy is repeating the same mistakes and expecting other outcomes. Like having a repeated cycle of ceasefire, hatred, conflict, ceasefire.
Victory can break the cycle of violence. The Nazis are gone, the Tamil Tigers are gone. Imperial Japan reformed to save itself.
Victory works better than stalemate.
Hmmm Tamil Tigers were fighting genuine oppression and had the vast majority of support of the Tamil people. You obviously are unable to understand nuance and parrot off something you read a while ago. Ask and learn my friend…
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
you still are and forever will be a complete lunatic
Lunacy is repeating the same mistakes and expecting other outcomes. Like having a repeated cycle of ceasefire, hatred, conflict, ceasefire.
Victory can break the cycle of violence. The Nazis are gone, the Tamil Tigers are gone. Imperial Japan reformed to save itself.
Victory works better than stalemate.
You can understand where the Russian ultras on Telegram are coming from when they say nothing less than an all out war of annihilation and total victory will ever bring the Ukrainian Nazis to heel, I suppose.
They have it arse over tit, nothing less than the complete and total Ukrainian victory over fascist Russia will work. But the principle can stand, the problem is that Ukraine like Israel is the 'good guy' and Russia like Hamas and Iran is the evil one that needs defeating.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
Somewhat amazingly I find myself wanting to steer you back to the light comedy of the Laffer curve.
Ruling out an early election is an obvious play with no real drawbacks.
If you're popular in 12 months you can go early after all without any consequence for changing your mind, and if you're not popular (now or in 12 months) an early election is an unnecessary risk to a huge majority purely for the sake of a 'mandate' that you don't gain even after you win an election anyway, since opposition doesn't halt just because you won.
The Tories need a 200 seat strategy next time, I'm afraid, and a 30% voteshare target.
That's all they can hope for. Focus on the economy and fiscal credibility, as well as constructive growth-based reform, and focus on 80 seats.
A LD plus strategy to defend their core seats and restore primacy in the South and prevent Reform taking back all their old seats in the east and midlands.
If they have more seats than Reform they can argue for leadership in any merger/pact. If they have less, they won't last much longer.
Thought he could call a by-election to end the media circus over donations No parties give him succour Main challenger is a bin, failed attempt to paint the bin as the establishment Farage continues to one-man-band Reform, giving speeches Nobody can cover his speeches as he's a by-election candidate More scandals come out about donations The only thing people hear about Reform as Burnham takes over are donations scandals
I assume that he will defeat Binface. But he is already defeated politically.
Binface won’t even be second.
The number of people who will actually turn out and vote for a joke candidate is fairly limited, even if that joke candidate had the unofficial backing of actual mainstream parties and their supporters. Holding the deposit would by itself be a tremendous outcome in such a situation.
But if it is just minuscule parties and independents plus Farage Binface still has a slight chance of second, though I'd expect Farage to get north of 80% on a low turnout. As much as many people hate him if there's no one real to vote for most will stay at home, and his supporters may still turn out reasonably to show their backing.
Ruling out an early election is an obvious play with no real drawbacks.
If you're popular in 12 months you can go early after all without any consequence for changing your mind, and if you're not popular (now or in 12 months) an early election is an unnecessary risk to a huge majority purely for the sake of a 'mandate' that you don't gain even after you win an election anyway, since opposition doesn't halt just because you won.
Also, "early election" is a bit of a vague concept. I presume he doesn't want one any time soon, but is one three years into a Parliament "early"? If Reform start to drop away and he comes up with a manifesto he wants 5 years to implement, I'd expect him to go for it
*"His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, CBE, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular"
I presume Al Hadji is up for grabs, in fact you probably have it
Ruling out an early election is an obvious play with no real drawbacks.
If you're popular in 12 months you can go early after all without any consequence for changing your mind, and if you're not popular (now or in 12 months) an early election is an unnecessary risk to a huge majority purely for the sake of a 'mandate' that you don't gain even after you win an election anyway, since opposition doesn't halt just because you won.
Also, "early election" is a bit of a vague concept. I presume he doesn't want one any time soon, but is one three years into a Parliament "early"? If Reform start to drop away and he comes up with a manifesto he wants 5 years to implement, I'd expect him to go for it
3 years is still pretty early but 4 is not.
Sensible aim surely is 2 years of governing and coming up with plans and then seeking re-election, with a fallback option of going long if needed.
*"His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, CBE, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular"
I presume Al Hadji is up for grabs, in fact you probably have it
I do indeed to the amusement of many.
(I only went because I was worried how my parents and grandparents would cope with the heat, honestly wearing a non branded white outfit for five days was hell for me.)
Edit I also wanted the title 'Your Excellency' which is why I nearly joined the Foreign Office but said no when I realised the title/honorific isn't for life.
A GCMG would be nice but I wanted to be addressed as Your Excellency for life.
The Tories need a 200 seat strategy next time, I'm afraid, and a 30% voteshare target.
That's all they can hope for. Focus on the economy and fiscal credibility, as well as constructive growth-based reform, and focus on 80 seats.
A LD plus strategy to defend their core seats and restore primacy in the South and prevent Reform taking back all their old seats in the east and midlands.
If they have more seats than Reform they can argue for leadership in any merger/pact. If they have less, they won't last much longer.
The Tories need a 200 seat strategy next time, I'm afraid, and a 30% voteshare target.
That's all they can hope for. Focus on the economy and fiscal credibility, as well as constructive growth-based reform, and focus on 80 seats.
A LD plus strategy to defend their core seats and restore primacy in the South and prevent Reform taking back all their old seats in the east and midlands.
If they have more seats than Reform they can argue for leadership in any merger/pact. If they have less, they won't last much longer.
The problem with that is that the Waitrose/Gail's belt thinks that the obsession with the ECHR just makes Kemi Reform Lite... Surrey isn't going to swing back unless the Tories show some awareness that they need to stop banging on about Europe. Unless they get real and accept that Brexit has been a complete failure, and the only way to recover is to find a constructive way to work with the EU, the seats they lost to the Lib Dems stay lost, and maybe for several electoral cycles. Even PR may not help the Tories- the Lib Dem majorities are so large
Thought he could call a by-election to end the media circus over donations No parties give him succour Main challenger is a bin, failed attempt to paint the bin as the establishment Farage continues to one-man-band Reform, giving speeches Nobody can cover his speeches as he's a by-election candidate More scandals come out about donations The only thing people hear about Reform as Burnham takes over are donations scandals
I assume that he will defeat Binface. But he is already defeated politically.
Binface won’t even be second.
The number of people who will actually turn out and vote for a joke candidate is fairly limited, even if that joke candidate had the unofficial backing of actual mainstream parties and their supporters. Holding the deposit would by itself be a tremendous outcome in such a situation.
But if it is just minuscule parties and independents plus Farage Binface still has a slight chance of second, though I'd expect Farage to get north of 80% on a low turnout. As much as many people hate him if there's no one real to vote for most will stay at home, and his supporters may still turn out reasonably to show their backing.
The way the other parties managed to play the offside trap on Farage over the bogus by-election has been remarkable. Even if one party like Lowe's blackshorts had stood it would have been a reportable contest but as it is the election cannot be reported lawfully, readably and usefully because of election law.
But it remains completely lawful to report on Farage's donation woes and Reform's dodgy cronies just as long as the reporting makes no mention whatsoever of the fact there is a by-election. And that is exactly what they are doing. LOL
Ruling out an early election is an obvious play with no real drawbacks.
If you're popular in 12 months you can go early after all without any consequence for changing your mind, and if you're not popular (now or in 12 months) an early election is an unnecessary risk to a huge majority purely for the sake of a 'mandate' that you don't gain even after you win an election anyway, since opposition doesn't halt just because you won.
Also, "early election" is a bit of a vague concept. I presume he doesn't want one any time soon, but is one three years into a Parliament "early"? If Reform start to drop away and he comes up with a manifesto he wants 5 years to implement, I'd expect him to go for it
3 years is still pretty early but 4 is not.
Sensible aim surely is 2 years of governing and coming up with plans and then seeking re-election, with a fallback option of going long if needed.
The issue is if sticking to the manifesto (or "arguably" sticking to the manifesto) starts to be too challenging
Ruling out an early election is an obvious play with no real drawbacks.
If you're popular in 12 months you can go early after all without any consequence for changing your mind, and if you're not popular (now or in 12 months) an early election is an unnecessary risk to a huge majority purely for the sake of a 'mandate' that you don't gain even after you win an election anyway, since opposition doesn't halt just because you won.
Also, "early election" is a bit of a vague concept. I presume he doesn't want one any time soon, but is one three years into a Parliament "early"? If Reform start to drop away and he comes up with a manifesto he wants 5 years to implement, I'd expect him to go for it
General election gaps since 1945 (roughly): 5 years 1.5 years 3.5 years 4.5 years 5 years 1.5 years 4 years 3.5 years Under 1 year 4.5 years 4 years 4 years 5 years 5 years 4 years 4 years 5 years 5 years 2 years 2.5 years 4.5 years
More full terms (of thereabouts) than I'd thought, and 3 years would clearly be early in historic terms, but I'd still say that going 3 years in would not be seen as ridiculously early by the public, and a 12 month bedding in period for a new PM is pretty usual when you get a switch between GEs, before they pull the trigger.
The Tories need a 200 seat strategy next time, I'm afraid, and a 30% voteshare target.
That's all they can hope for. Focus on the economy and fiscal credibility, as well as constructive growth-based reform, and focus on 80 seats.
A LD plus strategy to defend their core seats and restore primacy in the South and prevent Reform taking back all their old seats in the east and midlands.
If they have more seats than Reform they can argue for leadership in any merger/pact. If they have less, they won't last much longer.
The problem with that is that the Waitrose/Gail's belt thinks that the obsession with the ECHR just makes Kemi Reform Lite... Surrey isn't going to swing back unless the Tories show some awareness that they need to stop banging on about Europe. Unless they get real and accept that Brexit has been a complete failure, and the only way to recover is to find a constructive way to work with the EU, the seats they lost to the Lib Dems stay lost, and maybe for several electoral cycles. Even PR may not help the Tories- the Lib Dem majorities are so large
It seems to be a problem for the Tories that the most fertile ground for them to regain support is Reform-lite policies - that is where the receptive audience is to be found - but that will undermine them in many of the wealthier, southern rural heartlands where they actually outperformed in the last couple of election cycles.
Hence the tightrope walking of trying to be more Reformy, and not openly hostile to Reform wherever possible, but still needing people to see them as different, more reasonable than Reform, and not willing to sell themselves out to get Reform support.
Feck, I hate it when we import so much grief from the rest of the world, whether it is either the Jews or the Palestinians in Gaza, or anyone at all in the Punjab. These are not our problems.
There was a time when we were the world's policeman, when we ruled the waves and saw all of these conflicts through the prism of our interests but that was pre WW2. Right now we want to stay out of these fights. No one really gives a toss what we think and why should they?
We need to get real. We have minimal influence these days. Stay out of it. We have plenty of problems of our own.
The Tories need a 200 seat strategy next time, I'm afraid, and a 30% voteshare target.
That's all they can hope for. Focus on the economy and fiscal credibility, as well as constructive growth-based reform, and focus on 80 seats.
A LD plus strategy to defend their core seats and restore primacy in the South and prevent Reform taking back all their old seats in the east and midlands.
If they have more seats than Reform they can argue for leadership in any merger/pact. If they have less, they won't last much longer.
Fewer.
(Sorry!)
Arbitrary and unnecessary in this context where there was no diminution of understanding.
Language 'rules' are only inflexible where they are essential for that understanding - that's why they evolve, reflecting where there is flexibility.
Feck, I hate it when we import so much grief from the rest of the world, whether it is either the Jews or the Palestinians in Gaza, or anyone at all in the Punjab. These are not our problems.
There was a time when we were the world's policeman, when we ruled the waves and saw all of these conflicts through the prism of our interests but that was pre WW2. Right now we want to stay out of these fights. No one really gives a toss what we think and why should they?
We need to get real. We have minimal influence these days. Stay out of it. We have plenty of problems of our own.
There's a difference between accepting that the UK is not a superpower (and has not been for a very long time), and thinking it should not be a significant power at all. We are still a very large country (somewhere around 20th in terms of population) with a sizable economy. We cannot and should not get involved in many situations, we should be very discerning about where and how we do, but we have the capability to make that a choice, if we think it in our interests, and abandoning the ability to have any influence at all in that regard would be a mistake.
If anything I don't think the problem today is that the public think we are more powerful than we are and try to do too much, but that we don't think we can do anything at all.
Politicians, on the other hand, worry that the public will criticise them for being unambitious if they say we cannot do things, and so try to do too much whilst spending like we can do nothing. That disharmony then pisses people off.
Ruling out an early election is an obvious play with no real drawbacks.
If you're popular in 12 months you can go early after all without any consequence for changing your mind, and if you're not popular (now or in 12 months) an early election is an unnecessary risk to a huge majority purely for the sake of a 'mandate' that you don't gain even after you win an election anyway, since opposition doesn't halt just because you won.
And Gordon Brown's experience shows the dangers of letting the media get carried away with speculation on an early election if you aren't 100% definitely going to have one.
I agree that the idea of "mandates" is overrated. Either you have the MPs to get your policies through, or you don't; and the electorate will judge you on the effects of your decisions, not on whether or not you said in advance that you were going to do them.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
Somewhat amazingly I find myself wanting to steer you back to the light comedy of the Laffer curve.
Barty is an absolutist. Even when it comes to killing civilians by the tens of thousands ... so long as it's done by the 'good guys'.
... with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi...
Dame Maureen has got close relatives in Israel and she's said in the past about how scared she is for them given the constant missile bombardment. Under Badenoch the Conservatives are solidly pro-Israel (I think - somebody correct me if wrong) and Labour under Burnham is lukewarm, so she has a valid reason for the switch.
Indeed, its sad to see the pro Hamas turn many in Labour have taken. Good to see principled lefties like Maureen take a stance.
It's not pro Hamas, it's anti genocidal, racist Israeli government
Barty seems to process scepticism of the Netanyahu Government as a pro Hamas narrative. Maybe Maureen Lipman is similarly minded.
I support the Israeli opposition that wants to see the corrupt Netanyahu be replaced, but be just as hardline at defeating Hamas.
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
No, the problem is that Netanyahu's two goals, defeating Hamas and changing the regime in Iran, are and always were utterly unrealistic.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
That's quite a defeatist and nihilistic attitude.
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
Somewhat amazingly I find myself wanting to steer you back to the light comedy of the Laffer curve.
Barty is an absolutist. Even when it comes to killing civilians by the tens of thousands ... so long as it's done by the 'good guys'.
The whole thing is a ghastly mess but one thing I am sure of is that Hamas have not agreed to turn up and fight in areas free of civilians. That does not excuse Israel, but it does provide context.
I heard there were guys from Kerry who'd booked Monday and Tuesday off work to celebrate they were that confident. Mayo haven't won for 75 years - they said they were cursed.
*"His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, CBE, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular"
I presume Al Hadji is up for grabs, in fact you probably have it
I do indeed to the amusement of many.
(I only went because I was worried how my parents and grandparents would cope with the heat, honestly wearing a non branded white outfit for five days was hell for me.)
Edit I also wanted the title 'Your Excellency' which is why I nearly joined the Foreign Office but said no when I realised the title/honorific isn't for life.
A GCMG would be nice but I wanted to be addressed as Your Excellency for life.
Can’t you just make it your pronoun, and insist upon it?
Comments
Sometimes, you just have to get on with it.
It does not mean being pro-EU/ECHR.
Nothing to do with views but our economy and people's jobs
Apparently Beefeater announced the closure of their chain of106 restaurants yesterday
You cannot keep loading costs onto business
Complaining that it gets lots of investigation is in the “petrol fight while smoking” category of stupid
Oscar Wilde famously remarked the one thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about.
Kemi Badenoch has no such fears on PB - she's always close to the conversation which I think speaks volumes to the political demographic of PB.
Fair enough - I think Andy Burnham represents a far greater challenge than Keir Starmer ever did. How she responds to that challenge will be either the making of her or the breaking of her.
The outlines of a distinctive Conservative offering are appearing but the Devil will be in the detail - whose benefits will be cut when and by how much? Declaring war on pensioners by abolishing the Triple Lock for example seems an electorally fraught move - promising tax cuts here, abolishing stamp duty there, spending more on defence all sound good but the cynic in me will rightly ask how all this is to be paid.
The crunch for her will be having to stand up and defend welfare cuts - you can be sure those affected will shout the loudest.
She may be fortunate inasmuch as by 2029, rather like 1979, the prevailing sentiment will be "we cannot go on like this" and there will be more support for the kind of economic restructuring she might be advocating in terms of supply side reforms etc.
It became a racing term - it's a Beefeater meeting - very small stakes !!
An indicator worth keeping an eye on is in the sub samples (with the customary warnings of course) of polling, eg YouGov. In their latest polling, in the 'Higher' category (which I suppose is something ljke ABC1) Tory + Reform is only 39%. Tory at 22%. They have lost a lot of their traditional support, tending to be naturally centrist, to elsewhere.
Would not be surprised if my solid blue Conservative MP heads to the dark side just prior to the next GE.
In addition the Beefeater, Brewer's Fayre offering seems to me to have been a very poor copy of the Bernie Inn of the 1980s for decades. No one wants add water and stir rubbish.
As TSE says though Reform and Labour are now the top two in the polls so in most marginal seats Burnham Labour can squeeze the LDs and Greens to beat Reform, while the evidence suggests fewer Tories will tactically vote Reform to beat Labour. Seats where it will still be Labour v Tory and Labour will find tactical votes harder to get are mainly confined to London and the most prosperous parts of the home counties which did not go LD in 2024
Reform need some Labour defectors. Hard to see them wanting to face questions on the doorstep about "that five million quid" though.
That's the problem with government by slogans. There's nothing behind them.
Indeed, the only group where Labour and the Tories are still the top 2 parties is those in the higher social class category, with Labour on 27%, the Tories on 22%, Reform on just 17% and the LDs on 15%.
Whereas Reform lead with Intermediate and Routine groups on 28% and 30% and Labour, the traditional party of the working class is now only third with its former core vote on just 17% and 16% behind even the Tories in those groups on 20% and 19%
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/VotingIntention_MRP_Results_260723_w.pdf
The issue is not costs for net zero but the lack of movement in redesigning the way that the UK can take advantage of the massive amounts of electricity that are wasted by the current grid, never mind the planning hoops for terrestrial systems the Tories put in despite being the ones who introduced net zero.
I find it bizarre Kemi is fixated on denouncing a key policy for the Conservatives for the past 10 years. The Tories have long been the party of conservation, be that the WaC Act, BNG, Hedgerow Regs, Energy Act, coal and petrol phase outs etc etc.
The issue is not costs for net zero but the lack of movement in redesigning the way that the UK can take advantage of the massive amounts of electricity that are wasted by the current grid, never mind the planning hoops for terrestrial systems the Tories put in despite being the ones who introduced net zero.
I find it bizarre Kemi is fixated on denouncing a key policy for the Conservatives for the past 10 years. The Tories have long been the party of conservation, be that the WaC Act, BNG, Hedgerow Regs, Energy Act, coal and petrol phase outs etc etc.
In a collection, Humor, History, and Politics, edited by Guy Halsall, I found this story: Obviously, I can't stop anyone from finding a lesson for us in that story.
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phocas )
But you raise an interesting general point. A lot of the cost of the energy transition it seems to me is investment in resilience. Would it be OK to have a lower cost system with less redundancy, which works most of the time, but fails occasionally?
The Tories still lead Reform with middle class voters, so while Reform lead Labour with working class voters, the Tories reach middle class voters still Reform can't
However, you do not achieve a plus approval rate with even Maureen Lipman saying this week she would vote for Kemi if you are not cutting through and predicting the demise of the conservative party is either wishful thinking or hope
There is a lot to happen over the next 3 years and predicting the next GE is impossible
Burnham may win but who knows even Kemi may upset all the predictions and become the next PM
I expect it to be one or the other as I do not see Farage as a threat for the next GE
Reform and the Tories only really need to fight each other in the 124 existing Tory held seats and the handful of seats Reform won from the Tories at the last general election, especially in areas like Kent and Essex and East Anglia, which is less than a quarter of the total number of seats in the Commons
‘My son was on my wife’s lap when the IDF shot him dead’
In a land besieged by settler terror, baby Sam is one of 259 Palestinian children killed since the atrocities of October 7
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/west-bank-israel-children-idf-w6nfrn3kb
Shall we talk about the racist/apartheid like new law that leads to the death penalty for Palestinians but not for Jews Dame Maureen?
Fun fact, Dave (pbuh) who is advising Kemi is not a fan of Israel's behaviour.
Trump's policies are making you
🟤 Worse off - 58%
🟢 Better off - 13%
YouGov (CBS) #B - A - 7/24
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2081367087184740696
So, the chances of your criteria being met are zero.
if the right wing side of the media are undermining Farage, it is for clicks and revenue.
We don't argue over what's in the jar, but how the jar is labled.
Name calling rather than analysis.
What Hamas is is a product of what they needed to be to survive. A cell structured loose militia, made of of recruite driven by anger and just like all the other quazi militias, they lack discipline and restrained.
Back in 1982, iIraeli backed Militias killed somelike 3,000 in Sabra and Shatila in Beirut. Not the Israeli intent, though they wanted to break the PLO strangle hold on lebanon but a consequence of using and aiding these types of groups.
In Kosovo we havea narrative of Milošević letting slip his dogs of war to commit attrocities on his orders, but we should at least consider that our attacks broke his hold on the leash and once free they did what dogs do.
There is no excuse for what happened, but I think it is more likely that if they had had proper control and better discipline they would have not have wanted the civilian deaths that occurred. They hate the israeli's civilian and military but they aren't stupid. They may have been twisted by the conflict as many are after decade, but we see that throughout Africa with militias too.
All this is why I am not keen on the UK creating a Ranger battalion to train these sorts of groups or us using proxies.
I am not in any way justifying Hamas or what it does, but explaination isn't justification.
Why it is what it is and did what it did can be explained without demonising it or turning it into propoganda for either side.
As to Israel, yes it has a right to self defence, but it's actions have been on the basis of independant evidence, both disproportionate and illegal in the targetting of civilians and civilian areas.
Thir defence of defeating terrorists carries no more weight than Putins defeating Facism in Ukraine.
Two wrongs don't make a right and the ends don't justify the means.
Calling it genocide or arguing over if it is, simply muddies the waters and makes it about the labe not the facts.
Calling Israeli's who back it out of far Zionists is just as bad, as is calling people who think Israel's use of force is excessive or that the Palistinians should have their own State friends of Hamas.
Peter.
That's a bit unfortunate for him. I was just thinking how much better he was doing than the Alpines.
It's still Ikea - 2 laundry baskets cost the same as a jar of Bilberry and a jar of Lingonberry Jam, and I came back with a fair amount of Ikea food, but there is a shift from wood to metal and recycled plastic afaics.
The M&S food mix seems to have shifted towards quick pleasant pre-or-semi-prepared, at interesting prices; I'll have to visit the large M&S in Mansfield and see what the food offering & pricing is like.
They concentrate on UK sourced food and it is more expensive but in our view well worth the difference
We are fortunate not to be constrained by price, but recommend you take time in a M@S food store and you may well be pleasantly surprised
The aces in his hole (so to speak) are imo partly the long term things started by SKS which have either not surfaced yet, or not been noticed because SKS did not talk about them obsessively enough. Though some things could blow up in his face to an extent, such as the housing promises, though he can argue that he is semi-detached. On that one he needs to surpass the best done by the Cons by a fairly clear margin, and some of the Con numbers in certain years were better than we sometimes think.
I think AB also must make sure the game takes place on his home turf. I think his chances of that are reasonably good.
I hope he doesn't get carried away too much with no 10 North and not sure how this helps Scotand and Wales
Anyway, good Starmer and Reeves have gone and certainly he is a new challenge for the opposition including Kemi
The problem with Netanyahu is that he is (a) corrupt and (b) been too soft on Hamas.
Not that he has been too hard on them.
SKS identified some problems that need fixes that will take a long time, like housing which requires planning reform, the problem is he's not actually done those reforms yet.
If you don't actually reform anything, then you have not really started anything yet and no long term benefits will arise.
I still am not much up for ASDA despite a huge on in the town centre except for booze on rare occasions, - Morrisons are still far better on fresh, fish and charcuterie, despite having been bought by private equity asset strippers, and discounters for the ordinary things.
Cheaper than staying out for a pub meal.
https://x.com/GarethDennis/status/2081294897076740472
Concern trolling Beth Rigby thinks she's being 'othered'.
https://x.com/SkyNews/status/2080921543656227034
There are simply too many examples of war crimes being committed to remain on the side of the Israeli government.
I think the only side left to root for is the civilians of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. Which requires you to be strongly against the actions of their governing bodies.
Hamas and Netanyahu need each other to survive and thrive.
- Restarting Sure Start (ie support for new parents) in some areas. That was an excellent programme with widespread benefit.
- Renters Rights (and refusing Rent Controls point-blank).
- Increased minimum wage - at that income level it is recycled back into the economy.
- Primary school breakfast clubs.
- Planning Reform - maybe, I have not followed the detail. You have followed and you seem skeptical.
- Ed Miliband unjamming the wind farm planning queue from "first-come, first-served" system to prioritize ready-to-build.
- Streamlining EU trade and potentially EU travel. I think that last applies to pets, though I do not have pets and I do not know if it has happened yet, or what the benefit is.
- I'm not yet clear on the impact Employment Rights legislation will have.
- I think there has been a fair amount of important background work in the defence area, but that is slowly emerging - examples are the MOD housing estate, and recruitment. That is largely imo down to John Healey going carefully.
I think there are also things around that have only been started or consulted on, but I expect to come in, From my own areas of interest:
- Micro mobility vehicles and batteries, regulation and enforcement.
- Rebasing road safety around targets is a good move, as we know they work. (We probably won't wholly agree on that one.).
- Mobility aids consultation, but that is genuinely specialist until we see what happens. The existing laws are from pre-war, 1970 and 1988, and need a deep, considered overhaul. There are a huge number of problems and complications.
- Setting up a Road Safety Investigation Branch, depending how well it is done. We have these for Air and Rail, but road is a far more complex and diverse environment used by ordinary citizens, and the potential gains are far greater. That should help take our practices towards "safety systems" (as per H&S) rather than a blame culture.
Israel simply cannot wipe out Hamas while the Palestinians' political grievances remain unaddressed. It has had limited military successes, but at the cost of further entrenching political support for Hames in Gaza.
And the war to overthrow the Iranian regime has been a total and utter failure - in fact, completely counter-productive because it has allowed the Iranian regime to clamp down on the opposition at home even more thoroughly.
All Netanyahu's strategy has achieved is to strengthen his enemies politically, ruin Israel's standing abroad and trap it in a never-ending cycle of war and atrocity.
It's the definition of a futile dead end.
From that point of view, at least, Netanyahu and Putin are twins.
No and if you think that then you need to give your head a wobble.
Bad faith arguments like that are rubbish.
How would you like if I turned your comments like that around saying you are pro murdering Palestinians?
It is absolutely possible to militarily defeat evil terrorists and fascist regimes like Hamas and Iran. There is plenty of precedence for doing so like defeating the Tamil Tigers and the Nazis and Imperial Japan.
What is needed is Total War until they are defeated and surrender unconditionally.
The problem is that Trump especially has been weak and chickened out, and Netanyahu has also been pulling his punches.
Israel needs to get more aggressive than it is and end the cycle of violence by eliminating the enemies.
Mail Express and Graph and Times make just about every front page political, even when there’s no real story there - just a dodgy Tory dossier like Mail today. And for a reason - owners editors and journalists at those news organisations want to steer and influence UK politics.
I’ll lift from my header the other day. Labour 63.2% of seats from just 33.7% votes. 23.7% gave Conservatives just 18.6% of seats. For four crazy years, the right wing media have been in a wishy washy dibblydobbly headspace regards the two right wing parties cancelling each other out, handing the centre and left unearned electoral treasure. It’s pointless - almost to point centre and left Parties laughing at the Daily Mail’s lack of focus and understanding, putting Tory Central Office outputs on Mail front page like today, whilst leaving Reform competing with Conservatives for same voter pool, and the electoral results we are seeing from cancelling each other out.
The realisation they need to kill the half baked politics and limited ceiling Reform Party offer, to actually help the Conservatives, is long overdue.
My impression (and I don't do impressions) is the Express is still riding both Reform and Conservative horses and the Mail, for all its dalliance with Reform, has never really deserted the Conservatives.
All the above are of course far more anti-Labour and anti-"Left" than they are pro-Conservative or pro-Reform and whichever vehicle looks the one to rid the country of the "evil" Labour Government is the one to be on - hence the Mail's desperate "campaign" to "unite the Right" even when Reform have publicly called for the destruction of the Conservative Party.
A Labour Government with few friends in the printed media -who'd have thunk it? It's an argument for not allowing British newspapers to be owned by foreign nationals.
Victory can break the cycle of violence. The Nazis are gone, the Tamil Tigers are gone. Imperial Japan reformed to save itself.
Victory works better than stalemate.
Idi Amin’s grandson pledges to become ‘King of Scotland’ at Commonwealth Games
Heavyweight boxer Aziz Abdul credits Ugandan dictator as his inspiration as he attempts to become the ‘baddest man’ in Glasgow
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/boxing/2026/07/26/idi-amin-grandson-pledges-become-king-of-scotland/
*"His Excellency, President for Life, Field Marshal Al Hadji Doctor Idi Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, CBE, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and Fishes of the Seas and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in General and Uganda in Particular"
I am sure your electoral logic is bankrupt there. Specifically Labour areas will switch to Reform in great quantities at a Parliamentary election.
When Labour had a bad locals that boosted Burnham’s takeover, 4 of their voters went left, to to just 1 right to Reform.
https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54811-labours-voter-coalition-broke-more-to-left-than-right-at-2026-local-elections
Boris had more appeal over these Labour area’s than Farage. Especially the crucial midlands seats.
The real picture is Conservative and Reform are standing everywhere and cancelling each out, fighting for what is most largely the same voter pool.
Terrorists can be defeated.
If you're popular in 12 months you can go early after all without any consequence for changing your mind, and if you're not popular (now or in 12 months) an early election is an unnecessary risk to a huge majority purely for the sake of a 'mandate' that you don't gain even after you win an election anyway, since opposition doesn't halt just because you won.
If they have more seats than Reform they can argue for leadership in any merger/pact. If they have less, they won't last much longer.
But if it is just minuscule parties and independents plus Farage Binface still has a slight chance of second, though I'd expect Farage to get north of 80% on a low turnout. As much as many people hate him if there's no one real to vote for most will stay at home, and his supporters may still turn out reasonably to show their backing.
After attacking people by ramming his vehicle into them, he then proceeded to attack people with a machete.
Sick what some people will do.
Sensible aim surely is 2 years of governing and coming up with plans and then seeking re-election, with a fallback option of going long if needed.
(I only went because I was worried how my parents and grandparents would cope with the heat, honestly wearing a non branded white outfit for five days was hell for me.)
Edit I also wanted the title 'Your Excellency' which is why I nearly joined the Foreign Office but said no when I realised the title/honorific isn't for life.
A GCMG would be nice but I wanted to be addressed as Your Excellency for life.
(Sorry!)
But it remains completely lawful to report on Farage's donation woes and Reform's dodgy cronies just as long as the reporting makes no mention whatsoever of the fact there is a by-election. And that is exactly what they are doing. LOL
5 years
1.5 years
3.5 years
4.5 years
5 years
1.5 years
4 years
3.5 years
Under 1 year
4.5 years
4 years
4 years
5 years
5 years
4 years
4 years
5 years
5 years
2 years
2.5 years
4.5 years
More full terms (of thereabouts) than I'd thought, and 3 years would clearly be early in historic terms, but I'd still say that going 3 years in would not be seen as ridiculously early by the public, and a 12 month bedding in period for a new PM is pretty usual when you get a switch between GEs, before they pull the trigger.
Hence the tightrope walking of trying to be more Reformy, and not openly hostile to Reform wherever possible, but still needing people to see them as different, more reasonable than Reform, and not willing to sell themselves out to get Reform support.
There was a time when we were the world's policeman, when we ruled the waves and saw all of these conflicts through the prism of our interests but that was pre WW2. Right now we want to stay out of these fights. No one really gives a toss what we think and why should they?
We need to get real. We have minimal influence these days. Stay out of it. We have plenty of problems of our own.
Language 'rules' are only inflexible where they are essential for that understanding - that's why they evolve, reflecting where there is flexibility.
If anything I don't think the problem today is that the public think we are more powerful than we are and try to do too much, but that we don't think we can do anything at all.
Politicians, on the other hand, worry that the public will criticise them for being unambitious if they say we cannot do things, and so try to do too much whilst spending like we can do nothing. That disharmony then pisses people off.
I agree that the idea of "mandates" is overrated. Either you have the MPs to get your policies through, or you don't; and the electorate will judge you on the effects of your decisions, not on whether or not you said in advance that you were going to do them.
Even when it comes to killing civilians by the tens of thousands ... so long as it's done by the 'good guys'.
I heard there were guys from Kerry who'd booked Monday and Tuesday off work to celebrate they were that confident. Mayo haven't won for 75 years - they said they were cursed.