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Could this German stop Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister on Monday? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,251
edited 2:47PM in General
Could this German stop Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister on Monday? – politicalbetting.com

The countdown is ON! ??????????? England v Argentina, World Cup semi-final | Live on BBC One and BBC iPlayer from 1900 BST??? Watch, listen and follow build-up across BBC iPlayer, BBC Sounds and the BBC Sport website and app. pic.twitter.com/c2M7JOyQqy

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    Its the hope that kills you.....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,742

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    edited 2:55PM

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    Another red card and late dodgy penalty from Messi's favourite ref....

    I think it will be a step too far, Argentina are good and we have half the team seemingly playing injuried, spending days on the bog with dodgy guts or suffering terrific back pain from carrying the rest of the team every game.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,742

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    Another red card and late dodgy penalty from Messi's favourite ref....
    I'm expecting those in the first 20 mins.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,840
    FPT because some dimwit once again started another thread...

    On to the big betting event of the day which I'm told is NOT the 6.50 at Lingfield - just 26 runners in the 6 races and RON'S ANGEL in the aforementioned 6.50 backed from 2s to 6/4 with Billy Loughnane probably the reason.

    Paddy have England at 13/8, Argentina at 2s and 9/5 the Draw at 90 minutes. Both teams have dodgy defences - IF I were playing and God help me, I know next to nothing about "the beautiful game" at least in comparison to the "sport of kings", I'd be on 2-2 at 12s.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,663
    If we win the World Cup, my passage to the airport in the very early hours of the 20th may be inhibited. I feel, therefore (and reluctantly), that we ought to crash out.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,840
    edited 3:00PM
    carnforth said:

    If we win the World Cup, my passage to the airport in the very early hours of the 20th may be inhibited. I feel, therefore (and reluctantly), that we ought to crash out.

    Presumably any actual Bank Holiday (if such largesse is permitted) would be for when the Jules Rimet trophy begins its nationwide tour (of England though the Scots and Welsh can have a look as well) and the entire team is knighted, ennobled or whatever.

    Mr Tuchel would be offered British citizenship as Sir Thomas Tuchel (or better yet change his name as some other Germans did in 1917).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 67,118

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    I'm not holding my breath.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,822

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    I'm not holding my breath.
    I'm happy whatever happens (aside of a shit refereeing decision - less likely with VAR) or going out on penalties. They've reached the semis, won a couple of games I thought they would lose (Mexico for sure) and have a shot. I'd also not be surprised with 3-0, or 0-3.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,533

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    I'm not holding my breath.
    I'm happy whatever happens (aside of a shit refereeing decision - less likely with VAR) or going out on penalties. They've reached the semis, won a couple of games I thought they would lose (Mexico for sure) and have a shot. I'd also not be surprised with 3-0, or 0-3.
    At least today something as egregious as the “Hand of God” would result in a red card for Mr Maradona, rather than a goal against us.

    He’d have been unable to score the “Goal of the Century” a few minutes later, where he dribbled the ball past the whole England team single-handedly.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,057
    Had Starmer been what now appears to be himself since he became Prime Minister, he’d probably be looking forward to another term

    The stick seems to have been removed from his arse
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    edited 3:22PM

    Had Starmer been what now appears to be himself since he became Prime Minister, he’d probably be looking forward to another term

    The stick seems to have been removed from his arse

    I am not sure. Just because a bit of personality has come through, that doesn't change the fact he is Mr "never crossed my desk" is his modus operandi and his instincts have been repeatedly wrong. Like Sunak, that isn't going to change, he just isn't cut out for the job. No real plan and his achievement in 2 years are more laws banning stuff, lots of giving money away as part of international rulings / talking shops that are basically irrevelant, but none of the big issue have been tackled.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,057

    Had Starmer been what now appears to be himself since he became Prime Minister, he’d probably be looking forward to another term

    The stick seems to have been removed from his arse

    I am not sure. Just because a bit of personality has come through, that doesn't change the fact he is Mr "never crossed my desk" and his instincts have been repeatedly wrong.
    I know what you’re saying, but he was so extreme in the zero - or maybe even negative - personality. Anything vaguely human would have been better than what he gave us
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,742
    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,057
    Does the next chancellor know who the next chancellor is?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,742
    EXC: Andy Burnham's team has “pretty much locked in” senior Cabinet picks

    - Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is now expected to become Chancellor of the Exchequer

    - Opponents of Ed Miliband campaigned to stop his appointment as Chancellor. He is expected to be offered Foreign Secretary.

    - A Labour insider sympathetic to Miliband said his prospects of becoming Chancellor had suffered not so much because of scepticism about his net zero agenda, but because many in the party had not forgiven him for Labour's 2015 general election defeat.

    - Also in line for Cabinet positions are Louise Haigh who will be in a “beefed up" role as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, a senior Cabinet Office minister who drives cross-government policy and collaboration.

    - Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell and former Housing Secretary Angela Rayner are all in line for Cabinet positions.

    - Cabinet expected to be announced late Monday afternoon


    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/2077389081969864969?s=46
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    edited 3:31PM
    del
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    edited 3:30PM

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,742

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll be a success.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    edited 3:34PM

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll be a success.
    Well we will have to see what King of the North demands is the direction of travel. After giving one speech and taking no questions, he has been basically invisible, so we are still really no clearer what he is going to do different from Starmer / Reeves.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,298

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Possibly only person I can think of in my adult lifetime to hold the post of Home Secretary and be respected in it by anyone other than own parties supporters.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,057

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll be a success.
    Are labour lawyers better suited to chancellor than PM?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,920
    fpt

    God, on topic, people are idiots

    I believe Reform are on the side of the establishment and not ordinary people. The evidence is compelling.
    Do you know why Farage isn't part of the establishment? Because he didn't go to university.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,920

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Genuinely brilliant choice from Burnham, and thank goodness it isn't Ed.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,667

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Possibly only person I can think of in my adult lifetime to hold the post of Home Secretary and be respected in it by anyone other than own parties supporters.
    Well, I'm a bit older than you, I think, but for me there's not been a Home Sec to touch Roy Jenkins.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,298

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Possibly only person I can think of in my adult lifetime to hold the post of Home Secretary and be respected in it by anyone other than own parties supporters.
    Well, I'm a bit older than you, I think, but for me there's not been a Home Sec to touch Roy Jenkins.
    Well that dates it before my lifetime, let alone adult lifetime.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,567
    Although if Burnham does delay his accession to No 10 it will allow Starmer to bask in the glory of an England world cup win still as PM rather than him doing so. Of course still 2 matches for England to win first anyway
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 6,422
    KIRKLEES POST:

    Another go at electing a leader will take place tonight at a full council meeting scheduled from 5.30-9pm.

    Nationally there are currently two councils who have failed to select a leader, ourselves and Oldham, all other impasses, in such as Birmingham, Cambridge, iirc Chelmsford have been resolved. It seems over a lot of the last few years politics has often mirrored across Standedge, albeit in different variants.

    Previously, the two candidates, the Green leader of a coalition containing LD and varying Independents and the Reform leader have failed to gain the leadership. It is not an X vs Y FPTP vote, it takes the form of two votes, one for or against X (or abstain), one for or against Y.

    The Conservative group of 9 councillors have voted against both Green and Reform candidates in previous meetings, defeating both and saying they will only support a grand coalition.

    It seems a lot of the preliminary fact finding discussions and questions between the parties were conducted on copy to all councillor email chains with a view to transparency. (some of the article covering this, for which I bought a physical newspaper as a one off as the best form of reading - over £3!!! - is below).

    https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/kirklees-council-crisis-heated-confrontations-34150156

    It looks like the Reform leader Cllr Wood (of, "we don't know what an amendment is" fame) is quite a radical her way or no way type who stonewalls anything not entirely to her liking, and would have liked to meet opposing politicians individually and face-to-face (perhaps to pick off individual Conservatives) so refused to engage at all with the email discovery.

    It was also the Reform group that refused to countenance any rescheduling around the England game.

    She has lost two councillors since May, one went independent one resigned (by-election 13/8), so the numbers are:

    Green 12
    Varied Ind 14
    LD 5 (31 supporting Green coalition)

    Con 9

    Reform 27
    ex-Reform Ind 1 (27 or 28 supporting Reform)

    I think tonight some of the business prior to the vote will debate a Reform motion along the lines of "per precedent largest party should be able to form a cabinet" (let us be in charge). There is a Tory suggested amendment that in the circumstances the leadership only be valid for 12 months (Cllr Wood - "in they did not consult me on this amendment").

    The thought crosses my mind that the coalition grouping could all sign up as a single group and reveal they have greater numbers in a single political group than Reform, though I feel such a trick improbable.

    It does look to be edging a little towards a 12 month Reform led council though, the alternative being a process whereby the auditors invite the government to ultimately take over running of the council. I'm not at all certain of that outcome though.

    All will become clear, or not, tonight.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,502

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    Bolshy defeatist talk!
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 8,313

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll be a success.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll do nothing until chased for the umpteenth time, and then charge for reading the chasing letters and emails.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,977
    edited 3:50PM

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,239
    Andy_JS said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Genuinely brilliant choice from Burnham, and thank goodness it isn't Ed.
    1/25 on BF now.

    Does she have a clue about economics?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,902
    Burnham is already risking alienating the left of the party with his Chancellor and Chief of Staff picks.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 37,155

    EXC: Andy Burnham's team has “pretty much locked in” senior Cabinet picks

    - Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is now expected to become Chancellor of the Exchequer

    - Opponents of Ed Miliband campaigned to stop his appointment as Chancellor. He is expected to be offered Foreign Secretary.

    - A Labour insider sympathetic to Miliband said his prospects of becoming Chancellor had suffered not so much because of scepticism about his net zero agenda, but because many in the party had not forgiven him for Labour's 2015 general election defeat.

    - Also in line for Cabinet positions are Louise Haigh who will be in a “beefed up" role as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, a senior Cabinet Office minister who drives cross-government policy and collaboration.

    - Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell and former Housing Secretary Angela Rayner are all in line for Cabinet positions.

    - Cabinet expected to be announced late Monday afternoon


    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/2077389081969864969?s=46

    If Ed Miliband is "expected to be offered" the Foreign Office then, reading between the lines, the whole Cabinet is still up for negotiation so I'd not spend my winnings yet.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,600
    Kite flying on names to get a reaction?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,239

    EXC: Andy Burnham's team has “pretty much locked in” senior Cabinet picks

    - Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is now expected to become Chancellor of the Exchequer

    - Opponents of Ed Miliband campaigned to stop his appointment as Chancellor. He is expected to be offered Foreign Secretary.

    - A Labour insider sympathetic to Miliband said his prospects of becoming Chancellor had suffered not so much because of scepticism about his net zero agenda, but because many in the party had not forgiven him for Labour's 2015 general election defeat.

    - Also in line for Cabinet positions are Louise Haigh who will be in a “beefed up" role as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, a senior Cabinet Office minister who drives cross-government policy and collaboration.

    - Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell and former Housing Secretary Angela Rayner are all in line for Cabinet positions.

    - Cabinet expected to be announced late Monday afternoon


    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/2077389081969864969?s=46

    If Ed Miliband is "expected to be offered" the Foreign Office then, reading between the lines, the whole Cabinet is still up for negotiation so I'd not spend my winnings yet.
    They sure they've got the right brother?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,839

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll be a success.
    Well we will have to see what King of the North demands is the direction of travel. After giving one speech and taking no questions, he has been basically invisible, so we are still really no clearer what he is going to do different from Starmer / Reeves.
    Task one would be to run the country country competently and show leadership by having a decent account of where we are, where he wants to go and how he plans to get there. He is going to be fully accountable to parliament and he isn't yet PM, so I think the criticism (if it is) is premature.

    We know perfectly well that he is personable social democrat who by temperament will find spending money easier than raising it and that he faces problems to which there are no easy solutions.

    In that sense he can't be that much different from Starmer. He may get luckier, and he can't be worse at making stupid mistakes and at communicating. So he starts 1-0 up.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,239
    FF43 said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
    It's a genuine head scratcher to be honest.

    Let's see what happens on Monday.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,520
    edited 3:58PM
    So it looks like Reform will accuse anyone who criticises them of inciting violence against the party .

    I thought they supported free speech !
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,967
    FF43 said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
    Utterly depressing, more stolid policies then a reform sweep 2029.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    New: After being accused of avoiding press scrutiny Andy Burnham has sat down for an eve of premiership interview with… Gary Lineker

    After he was asked by Lineker about new wealth taxes Burnham said he wouldn’t rule it out but that it’s a decision “for another day”:

    “I’m going to obviously take my time to properly look at the state of things, particularly the state of finances. And I just said a moment ago, Gary, about bringing people together. You know, I don’t want to come in and sort of, if you like, create new divisions and pitch people one against another.

    “I’m not going rule things out right now. I do believe we need a greater sense of fairness and people feeling that things are being done in the right way and a fair way. But at the same time, you know, I don’t want to sort of be perceived as somebody who’s coming in with grudges and agendas and, you know, going to just immediately find or demonise one group or create a new way of dividing people.

    “So, you know, decisions to be taken in time, they’re going to be difficult. I’m not going to shy away from that. You know, we are going to have to work quite hard to make sure, you know, we can pay our way.

    “And at some point that might be having to ask for a little more. But, you know, those decisions are not for now. They’re for another day.”

    https://x.com/EthanCroft98/status/2077410370751205433?s=20
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,356
    Artist said:

    Burnham is already risking alienating the left of the party with his Chancellor and Chief of Staff picks.

    On the other hand, it gets Mahmood away from the Home Office. And I think the last political bruiser to make the switch from Home Secretary to Chancellor was Ken Clarke; he did OK.

    Should this stuff be leaking now, though?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 16,840
    As he's about to leave office (it seems), I still don't know what to make of Keir Starmer.

    There's no denying he inherited a Labour Party in deep trouble after the 2019 defeat but the extent to which he was personally responsible for its renaissance and the extent to which said renaissance was the sole reserve of the disastrous Conservative administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak, buffeted as they were by events often outside their immediate control but nonetheless seemingly ill-equipped (for the most part) to deal with the consequences, I'm less certain.

    The so-called "loveless landslide" of July 2024 doesn't alter the fact Labour won a big majority and you could argue in the 1983-97 period the groundwork for the 1997 success was as much laid by Kinnock, Smith and Blair as it was by Major and his own Cabinet and the events of "Black" Wednesday.

    To be fair, it's not easy to come into Government after so long in Opposition - just ask Blair and Cameron - and you could appreciate the frustration if there was a substantial programme of radical legislation planned and being slow to be enacted but with Starmer, all I heard was "change".

    Okay - "change", but from what to what? We couldn't go on as we were or had done from 2019-24 but there seemed no sense of what the incoming Government was trying to do - had it possessed, like Attlee in 1945 and Thatcher in 1979 and even Blair/Brown with the independence of the BoE in 1997, a radical programme of legislation, yes, we might have said, "let's see if this works".

    Southport ended the honeymoon as did the hamfisted measures on winter fuel allowance which seemed an example of doing something just to be seen to be doing it. Yes, political nerds wanted immediate action but the country was heading on its summer holidays and could have waited.

    The fundamental questions of the public finances and immigration (though the latter has evolved beyond the issues of "boats") remain largely unresolved and future administrations (starting with Burnham but not excluding a future Reform or Conservative Government) are going to have to face some difficult choices.

    Starmer seems a prime example of a man leading a Government in office but not in power - his own authority over his backbenchers was challenged and found wanting over welfare. You can argue backbenchers have always had the power - after all, Conservative MPs undermined and forced the resignations of Thatcher, IDS, Cameron (arguably), May, Johnson and Truss.

    We can only speculate what a Harris White House would have been like but the return of the arch-disruptor Trump left Starmer (as it would Sunak) looking uncomfortable trying to navigate a complex relationship.

    It may well be (and only time will tell) history will judge both Sunak and Starmer rather better than is the case currently.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    edited 4:03PM
    algarkirk said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll be a success.
    Well we will have to see what King of the North demands is the direction of travel. After giving one speech and taking no questions, he has been basically invisible, so we are still really no clearer what he is going to do different from Starmer / Reeves.
    Task one would be to run the country country competently and show leadership by having a decent account of where we are, where he wants to go and how he plans to get there. He is going to be fully accountable to parliament and he isn't yet PM, so I think the criticism (if it is) is premature.

    We know perfectly well that he is personable social democrat who by temperament will find spending money easier than raising it and that he faces problems to which there are no easy solutions.

    In that sense he can't be that much different from Starmer. He may get luckier, and he can't be worse at making stupid mistakes and at communicating. So he starts 1-0 up.

    It wasn't criticism, it was just a statement of fact, that we don't know. I am sure they are busy trying to formulate plans, but because there was no leadership race he wasn't forced to lay out anything concrete. He has just done an interview with Gary Lineker where he was again very vague.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,533

    stodge said:

    As he's about to leave office (it seems), I still don't know what to make of Keir Starmer.

    There's no denying he inherited a Labour Party in deep trouble after the 2019 defeat but the extent to which he was personally responsible for its renaissance and the extent to which said renaissance was the sole reserve of the disastrous Conservative administrations of Johnson, Truss and Sunak, buffeted as they were by events often outside their immediate control but nonetheless seemingly ill-equipped (for the most part) to deal with the consequences, I'm less certain.

    The so-called "loveless landslide" of July 2024 doesn't alter the fact Labour won a big majority and you could argue in the 1983-97 period the groundwork for the 1997 success was as much laid by Kinnock, Smith and Blair as it was by Major and his own Cabinet and the events of "Black" Wednesday.

    To be fair, it's not easy to come into Government after so long in Opposition - just ask Blair and Cameron - and you could appreciate the frustration if there was a substantial programme of radical legislation planned and being slow to be enacted but with Starmer, all I heard was "change".

    Okay - "change", but from what to what? We couldn't go on as we were or had done from 2019-24 but there seemed no sense of what the incoming Government was trying to do - had it possessed, like Attlee in 1945 and Thatcher in 1979 and even Blair/Brown with the independence of the BoE in 1997, a radical programme of legislation, yes, we might have said, "let's see if this works".

    Southport ended the honeymoon as did the hamfisted measures on winter fuel allowance which seemed an example of doing something just to be seen to be doing it. Yes, political nerds wanted immediate action but the country was heading on its summer holidays and could have waited.

    The fundamental questions of the public finances and immigration (though the latter has evolved beyond the issues of "boats") remain largely unresolved and future administrations (starting with Burnham but not excluding a future Reform or Conservative Government) are going to have to face some difficult choices.

    Starmer seems a prime example of a man leading a Government in office but not in power - his own authority over his backbenchers was challenged and found wanting over welfare. You can argue backbenchers have always had the power - after all, Conservative MPs undermined and forced the resignations of Thatcher, IDS, Cameron (arguably), May, Johnson and Truss.

    We can only speculate what a Harris White House would have been like but the return of the arch-disruptor Trump left Starmer (as it would Sunak) looking uncomfortable trying to navigate a complex relationship.

    It may well be (and only time will tell) history will judge both Sunak and Starmer rather better than is the case currently.

    Starmer's downfall can be summed up very simply, "fail to plan, plan to fail".
    Yes, the plan didn’t go beyond “We’re not the other lot” when there was a tired government after 14 years in office.

    Cameron and Blair at least came in with a vision and a plan. Starmer, nothing.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,057
    Had my first night out in London for a few years last night

    I went in a cab I didn’t have to pay for with my friends who invited me. We met up with an old friend of mine who had introduced me to the band years ago

    I was initially disappointed that the brilliant singer wasn’t there with them, but the guitarist was an excellent singer

    And we got to hear the band better than we would have with the other singer, so I made peace with it. They were immaculate

    From left to right is clarinet, cornet (played by the band leader; she stomps quietly at the beginning of every song to set the tempo), trombone, guitar, sousaphone, some sort of French named banjo, and the washboard

    I briefly met the washboard player while I bought my new T-shirt

    Tuba Skinny at Ronnie’s last night


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 37,667
    Pro_Rata said:

    KIRKLEES POST:

    Another go at electing a leader will take place tonight at a full council meeting scheduled from 5.30-9pm.

    Nationally there are currently two councils who have failed to select a leader, ourselves and Oldham, all other impasses, in such as Birmingham, Cambridge, iirc Chelmsford have been resolved. It seems over a lot of the last few years politics has often mirrored across Standedge, albeit in different variants.

    Previously, the two candidates, the Green leader of a coalition containing LD and varying Independents and the Reform leader have failed to gain the leadership. It is not an X vs Y FPTP vote, it takes the form of two votes, one for or against X (or abstain), one for or against Y.

    The Conservative group of 9 councillors have voted against both Green and Reform candidates in previous meetings, defeating both and saying they will only support a grand coalition.

    It seems a lot of the preliminary fact finding discussions and questions between the parties were conducted on copy to all councillor email chains with a view to transparency. (some of the article covering this, for which I bought a physical newspaper as a one off as the best form of reading - over £3!!! - is below).

    https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/local-news/kirklees-council-crisis-heated-confrontations-34150156

    It looks like the Reform leader Cllr Wood (of, "we don't know what an amendment is" fame) is quite a radical her way or no way type who stonewalls anything not entirely to her liking, and would have liked to meet opposing politicians individually and face-to-face (perhaps to pick off individual Conservatives) so refused to engage at all with the email discovery.

    It was also the Reform group that refused to countenance any rescheduling around the England game.

    She has lost two councillors since May, one went independent one resigned (by-election 13/8), so the numbers are:

    Green 12
    Varied Ind 14
    LD 5 (31 supporting Green coalition)

    Con 9

    Reform 27
    ex-Reform Ind 1 (27 or 28 supporting Reform)

    I think tonight some of the business prior to the vote will debate a Reform motion along the lines of "per precedent largest party should be able to form a cabinet" (let us be in charge). There is a Tory suggested amendment that in the circumstances the leadership only be valid for 12 months (Cllr Wood - "in they did not consult me on this amendment").

    The thought crosses my mind that the coalition grouping could all sign up as a single group and reveal they have greater numbers in a single political group than Reform, though I feel such a trick improbable.

    It does look to be edging a little towards a 12 month Reform led council though, the alternative being a process whereby the auditors invite the government to ultimately take over running of the council. I'm not at all certain of that outcome though.

    All will become clear, or not, tonight.

    Eldest granddaughter works for Kirklees! She and her colleagues are keeping their heads down and getting on with their jobs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,208

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    That is the hope...

    Not me of course.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,510
    Yes, us in a WC final and a change of PMs is too much for 48 hours to handle. If we win tonight (and cmon we're going to!) the tooing and froing between Downing St and the Palace could usefully be put back a day or two. This will allow people to give it the attention it deserves. I know it's become an all too regular thing, changing PMs, but it's still special, and this time particularly so because it's Andy Burnham. A few short weeks ago he wasn't even an MP. What a story.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,764

    Had my first night out in London for a few years last night

    I went in a cab I didn’t have to pay for with my friends who invited me. We met up with an old friend of mine who had introduced me to the band years ago

    I was initially disappointed that the brilliant singer wasn’t there with them, but the guitarist was an excellent singer

    And we got to hear the band better than we would have with the other singer, so I made peace with it. They were immaculate

    From left to right is clarinet, cornet (played by the band leader; she stomps quietly at the beginning of every song to set the tempo), trombone, guitar, sousaphone, some sort of French named banjo, and the washboard

    I briefly met the washboard player while I bought my new T-shirt

    Tuba Skinny at Ronnie’s last night


    Damn I didn't know they were touring. I absolutely love Tuba Skinny and watch them all the time on Youtube. That female trumpeter is amazing.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,906
    Andy Burnham is going to have to drop some Ming vases along the way.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 28,024
    There is a special place in hell for journalists who leak the England team.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,764
    nico67 said:

    So it looks like Reform will accuse anyone who criticises them of inciting violence against the party .

    I thought they supported free speech !

    I agree in general though would probably make an exception for the threat to shoot someone in the face. That does rather step over a line.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,239
    Battlebus said:

    Kite flying on names to get a reaction?


    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    1h
    So a Chancellor with no economic experience who made clear she didn’t want the job (and was doing well at the Home Office), and a Foreign Secretary with no foreign policy experience who also didn’t want the job…

    https://x.com/BenKentish/status/2077411113864454603
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,663

    nico67 said:

    So it looks like Reform will accuse anyone who criticises them of inciting violence against the party .

    I thought they supported free speech !

    I agree in general though would probably make an exception for the threat to shoot someone in the face. That does rather step over a line.
    The question is whether arresting such people is new post-Widdecombe policy or whether similar outbursts would have lead to arrest in the past. Call me a cynic...
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 8,057

    Had my first night out in London for a few years last night

    I went in a cab I didn’t have to pay for with my friends who invited me. We met up with an old friend of mine who had introduced me to the band years ago

    I was initially disappointed that the brilliant singer wasn’t there with them, but the guitarist was an excellent singer

    And we got to hear the band better than we would have with the other singer, so I made peace with it. They were immaculate

    From left to right is clarinet, cornet (played by the band leader; she stomps quietly at the beginning of every song to set the tempo), trombone, guitar, sousaphone, some sort of French named banjo, and the washboard

    I briefly met the washboard player while I bought my new T-shirt

    Tuba Skinny at Ronnie’s last night


    Damn I didn't know they were touring. I absolutely love Tuba Skinny and watch them all the time on Youtube. That female trumpeter is amazing.
    She was superb last night

    In the intro to one of the songs she told us that her grandfather had played sax at Ronnie’s sixty years ago. She seemed to be loving life in London
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 6,122
    edited 4:24PM
    Sandpit said:

    Its the hope that kills you.....

    Yeah, we're getting knocked out tonight.
    I'm not holding my breath.
    I'm happy whatever happens (aside of a shit refereeing decision - less likely with VAR) or going out on penalties. They've reached the semis, won a couple of games I thought they would lose (Mexico for sure) and have a shot. I'd also not be surprised with 3-0, or 0-3.
    At least today something as egregious as the “Hand of God” would result in a red card for Mr Maradona, rather than a goal against us.

    He’d have been unable to score the “Goal of the Century” a few minutes later, where he dribbled the ball past the whole England team single-handedly.
    If you watch that goal back you'll see a nasty two footed tackle that was worthy of at least a yellow that won the ball for Maradona. I forget who made it.

    It would also have been called back by VAR.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 61,179

    Battlebus said:

    Kite flying on names to get a reaction?


    Ben Kentish
    @BenKentish
    ·
    1h
    So a Chancellor with no economic experience who made clear she didn’t want the job (and was doing well at the Home Office), and a Foreign Secretary with no foreign policy experience who also didn’t want the job…

    https://x.com/BenKentish/status/2077411113864454603
    It’s going to be a fun couple of years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 64,800
    Completely off topic, but on Monday night my wife and I had dinner with friends in Soho just a hundred yards or so from Ronnie Scott's at Osteria Vibrato.

    It was a fun evening, with great food, made all the more memorable by the fact that Nigella Lawson was at the next door table. For 66, she looks absolute fabulous. And it's fair to say she was having a marvelous (and very loud) time.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,239
    Aaron Bastani
    @AaronBastani
    ·
    34m
    “You get to be foreign secretary because this faction lobbied against you having a different job”

    This stuff is killing the two major parties. And deservedly so.

    https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2077420245182976361
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,988
    Guardian reporting that Farage said he'd have to be paid £1m a year to return to politics in early 2024. And then, lo, he was paid for five years upfront.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,239
    The only way the Mahmood appointment makes sense, if it happens, is she has agreed she will just do exactly what No. 10 want on the economics front and have no ideas or agenda herself.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,663

    Aaron Bastani
    @AaronBastani
    ·
    34m
    “You get to be foreign secretary because this faction lobbied against you having a different job”

    This stuff is killing the two major parties. And deservedly so.

    https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2077420245182976361

    Was it ever not thus? We just didn't have 24 hour news and social media and had to wait for the memoirs...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,764
    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    So it looks like Reform will accuse anyone who criticises them of inciting violence against the party .

    I thought they supported free speech !

    I agree in general though would probably make an exception for the threat to shoot someone in the face. That does rather step over a line.
    The question is whether arresting such people is new post-Widdecombe policy or whether similar outbursts would have lead to arrest in the past. Call me a cynic...
    I think a threat to shoot someone has always been taken seriously. If only because if they then go and do it then the police look rather bad.

    But anything other than a direct threat/incitement certainly shouldn't be something for the police to get involved in.

    In answer to your question though, yes, as we know from the regular complaints and police apologies, the police have been more than happy to arrest people for making nasty comments online, though usually people on the political right who apprently deserve all they get. At least that is the impression many on here give when defending such arrests.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,652
    Andy_JS said:

    fpt

    God, on topic, people are idiots

    I believe Reform are on the side of the establishment and not ordinary people. The evidence is compelling.
    Do you know why Farage isn't part of the establishment? Because he didn't go to university.
    So presumably the Establishment does include Matt Goodwin (obv), Richard Tice, Sarah Pochin, Danny Kruger, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, and Zia Yusuf.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,567

    Andy_JS said:

    fpt

    God, on topic, people are idiots

    I believe Reform are on the side of the establishment and not ordinary people. The evidence is compelling.
    Do you know why Farage isn't part of the establishment? Because he didn't go to university.
    So presumably the Establishment does include Matt Goodwin (obv), Richard Tice, Sarah Pochin, Danny Kruger, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, and Zia Yusuf.
    Not Yusuf, Tice and Pochin and Goodwin as they didn't go to Oxbridge, for top rank mandarins there are only 2 universities as Sir Humphrey said
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,510

    FF43 said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
    Utterly depressing, more stolid policies then a reform sweep 2029.
    RR was the first female Chancellor and it was made a big deal of. All the more so, I sense, because of the ongoing absence of a female Labour leader.

    I think it's possible that this would play into the thinking on the replacement. Context being Reeves has only done two years and the new leader is yet again male.

    It would, on this basis, devolve into a Mahmood v Cooper choice. And Mahmood is the sharper tougher politician of those two.

    Aftertime wisdom from me here though. I backed Pat McFadden.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,764

    The only way the Mahmood appointment makes sense, if it happens, is she has agreed she will just do exactly what No. 10 want on the economics front and have no ideas or agenda herself.

    I thuink she seems to have been a pretty effective operator at the Home Office, even if personally I disagree with the anti-immigrant stance she has adopted.

    She was put there with a brief to bring down immigration and has turned a poison chalice into an asset politically.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,127

    EXC: Andy Burnham's team has “pretty much locked in” senior Cabinet picks

    - Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is now expected to become Chancellor of the Exchequer

    - Opponents of Ed Miliband campaigned to stop his appointment as Chancellor. He is expected to be offered Foreign Secretary.

    - A Labour insider sympathetic to Miliband said his prospects of becoming Chancellor had suffered not so much because of scepticism about his net zero agenda, but because many in the party had not forgiven him for Labour's 2015 general election defeat.

    - Also in line for Cabinet positions are Louise Haigh who will be in a “beefed up" role as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, a senior Cabinet Office minister who drives cross-government policy and collaboration.

    - Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell and former Housing Secretary Angela Rayner are all in line for Cabinet positions.

    - Cabinet expected to be announced late Monday afternoon


    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/2077389081969864969?s=46

    If Ed Miliband is "expected to be offered" the Foreign Office then, reading between the lines, the whole Cabinet is still up for negotiation so I'd not spend my winnings yet.
    Does that mean we're still in with a faint chance of somebody who's not a Massive Tristram at education?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 60,906
    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
    Utterly depressing, more stolid policies then a reform sweep 2029.
    RR was the first female Chancellor and it was made a big deal of. All the more so, I sense, because of the ongoing absence of a female Labour leader.

    I think it's possible that this would play into the thinking on the replacement. Context being Reeves has only done two years and the new leader is yet again male.

    It would, on this basis, devolve into a Mahmood v Cooper choice. And Mahmood is the sharper tougher politician of those two.

    Aftertime wisdom from me here though. I backed Pat McFadden.
    Cooper is a very longstanding friend of Andy Burnham.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 34,764
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    fpt

    God, on topic, people are idiots

    I believe Reform are on the side of the establishment and not ordinary people. The evidence is compelling.
    Do you know why Farage isn't part of the establishment? Because he didn't go to university.
    So presumably the Establishment does include Matt Goodwin (obv), Richard Tice, Sarah Pochin, Danny Kruger, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, and Zia Yusuf.
    Not Yusuf, Tice and Pochin and Goodwin as they didn't go to Oxbridge, for top rank mandarins there are only 2 universities as Sir Humphrey said
    Three surely - Oxford, Campbridge and Hull!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 129,742
    Trump's nominee for DNI

    KING: Who won the 2020 election?

    CLAYTON: I've answered that question. I'm going to get into that

    KING: You have not answered that question. Could you answer it?

    CLAYTON: Joe Biden was certified

    KING: No. That's not an answer. You told us you'd tell truth to power, and you won't answer a very simple question.


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2077408671055634935
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,920
    Got on a train and within 10 minutes someone sitting nearby is watching videos on their phone with the volume turned up high. Why do people think this is acceptable?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 29,298
    Maybe its just me but I've never understood why in modern politics Foreign Secretary is considered a big job, let alone a Great Office of State.

    Maybe in the past it was. Especially in the era of the Empire. Or even much of the latter part of the 20th Century.

    But today? Every major foreign policy adventure I can think of from Blair onwards (my adult life) has been fronted by the PM personally.

    Home Secretary has big policies linked to them personally. So does Chancellor. So too other Secretaries like Education or Health. However anything major on foreign politics is the PM first and foremost.

    To me it seems Foreign Secretary should be akin to Chief Secretary of the Treasury, very much a second-fiddle role, not a primary one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,510

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
    Utterly depressing, more stolid policies then a reform sweep 2029.
    RR was the first female Chancellor and it was made a big deal of. All the more so, I sense, because of the ongoing absence of a female Labour leader.

    I think it's possible that this would play into the thinking on the replacement. Context being Reeves has only done two years and the new leader is yet again male.

    It would, on this basis, devolve into a Mahmood v Cooper choice. And Mahmood is the sharper tougher politician of those two.

    Aftertime wisdom from me here though. I backed Pat McFadden.
    Cooper is a very longstanding friend of Andy Burnham.
    Is she going back to Home Sec then?

    (if Mahmood is CoE and Ed is Foreign - which is where the betting has strongly gone)

    Maybe best to just wait, I suppose. Not long now.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,127

    Trump's nominee for DNI

    KING: Who won the 2020 election?

    CLAYTON: I've answered that question. I'm going to get into that

    KING: You have not answered that question. Could you answer it?

    CLAYTON: Joe Biden was certified

    KING: No. That's not an answer. You told us you'd tell truth to power, and you won't answer a very simple question.


    https://x.com/atrupar/status/2077408671055634935

    Joe Biden was certified as the winner in 2020.

    Donald Trump is providing ample evidence that he should have been certified in 2020.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,839

    algarkirk said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    She’s a lawyer, she’ll be a success.
    Well we will have to see what King of the North demands is the direction of travel. After giving one speech and taking no questions, he has been basically invisible, so we are still really no clearer what he is going to do different from Starmer / Reeves.
    Task one would be to run the country country competently and show leadership by having a decent account of where we are, where he wants to go and how he plans to get there. He is going to be fully accountable to parliament and he isn't yet PM, so I think the criticism (if it is) is premature.

    We know perfectly well that he is personable social democrat who by temperament will find spending money easier than raising it and that he faces problems to which there are no easy solutions.

    In that sense he can't be that much different from Starmer. He may get luckier, and he can't be worse at making stupid mistakes and at communicating. So he starts 1-0 up.

    It wasn't criticism, it was just a statement of fact, that we don't know. I am sure they are busy trying to formulate plans, but because there was no leadership race he wasn't forced to lay out anything concrete. He has just done an interview with Gary Lineker where he was again very vague.
    Fair comment.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,816

    The only way the Mahmood appointment makes sense, if it happens, is she has agreed she will just do exactly what No. 10 want on the economics front and have no ideas or agenda herself.

    I thuink she seems to have been a pretty effective operator at the Home Office, even if personally I disagree with the anti-immigrant stance she has adopted.

    She was put there with a brief to bring down immigration and has turned a poison chalice into an asset politically.
    This is the nonsense. Doing a good job, so best she stops doing it.

    Hopefully the policies will continue.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,127
    edited 4:50PM

    Maybe its just me but I've never understood why in modern politics Foreign Secretary is considered a big job, let alone a Great Office of State.

    Maybe in the past it was. Especially in the era of the Empire. Or even much of the latter part of the 20th Century.

    But today? Every major foreign policy adventure I can think of from Blair onwards (my adult life) has been fronted by the PM personally.

    Home Secretary has big policies linked to them personally. So does Chancellor. So too other Secretaries like Education or Health. However anything major on foreign politics is the PM first and foremost.

    To me it seems Foreign Secretary should be akin to Chief Secretary of the Treasury, very much a second-fiddle role, not a primary one.

    Because it requires doing a lot of complicated yet unglamorous donkey work with foreign powers without which our trade and security networks simply couldn't function.

    It's probably the job that involves the most actual work of any role in the Cabinet (including PM) because it's always changing due to factors outside your control. The Chancellor has a few big set pieces a year that everything revolves around, if there's a crisis the Home Secretary at least can pull her own levers of power. But a Foreign Secretary may be making hurried, difficult decisions and dealing with major changes from day to day due to things over which she has no control whatsoever.

    Plus, it means meeting lots of other foreign leaders and seeing how they do things.

    It is no coincidence that the Foreign Office has usually been seen as a better proving ground for PMs than being Chancellor for that reason. There was no shortage of serious commentary that one of Brown's (and Sunak's) big weaknesses was he came from the Treasury not the FO. To some extent you can see that also with Neville Chamberlain.

    Of course, it's not a rule of physics. Neither Eden nor Truss were much cop.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,663

    Andy_JS said:

    Got on a train and within 10 minutes someone sitting nearby is watching videos on their phone with the volume turned up high. Why do people think this is acceptable?

    They don't care whether it is acceptable or not. They are selfish arseholes.

    The elderly are doing it too. I had that last night in the pub. In their defence, at least the elderly might not realise how loud it is, being half deaf.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,735
    edited 4:52PM
    If (and it's a big if) Mahmood is appointed CoE, I wouldn't read too much into her performance as HS. She was appointed as HS specifically to lance the boil of (illegal) immigration and small boats, and has made pretty good progress. This, of course, has infuriated some of the left of my party. But most Home Secretaries veer towards the right a bit. It doesn't necessarily follow that she would be a 'right-wing' CoE.

    In other words, Mahmood may surprise us lefties on the upside if she's CoE by being a reasonable re-distributive Chancellor.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 80,127
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
    Utterly depressing, more stolid policies then a reform sweep 2029.
    RR was the first female Chancellor and it was made a big deal of. All the more so, I sense, because of the ongoing absence of a female Labour leader.

    I think it's possible that this would play into the thinking on the replacement. Context being Reeves has only done two years and the new leader is yet again male.

    It would, on this basis, devolve into a Mahmood v Cooper choice. And Mahmood is the sharper tougher politician of those two.

    Aftertime wisdom from me here though. I backed Pat McFadden.
    Cooper is a very longstanding friend of Andy Burnham.
    Is she going back to Home Sec then?

    (if Mahmood is CoE and Ed is Foreign - which is where the betting has strongly gone)

    Maybe best to just wait, I suppose. Not long now.
    Or, if she has not been well, First Secretary of State/Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Leader of the House?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,302
    edited 4:55PM
    tlg86 said:

    There is a special place in hell for journalists who leak the England team.

    The last World Cup, the Athletic had the starting line up many many hours before the kick off. But I am sure Argentina are very happy to know that its Rogers in for Saka a couple of horus before kick off.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,920
    edited 4:53PM
    edit
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,533

    Andy_JS said:

    Got on a train and within 10 minutes someone sitting nearby is watching videos on their phone with the volume turned up high. Why do people think this is acceptable?

    They don't care whether it is acceptable or not. They are selfish arseholes.

    The Lib Dem’s actually has a good policy on this to try to clamp down on it.

    Although whenever it happens when I’m on public transport I’m willing them to be struck down by the almighty and despatched to Hades
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,510
    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    FF43 said:

    Kerching

    FT reporting Shabana Mahmood to be Burnham’s Chancellor.

    Certainly a better option than eco-nutter Milband, light fingered Haigh or Cooper-Balls. Surely can't be worse than Reeves.
    Given Mahmood has no experience in economics and as far we can tell no interest in it either, and her signature policy on immigration is directly inimical to growth, I would expect Mahmood to be worse than Reeves.

    Maybe she will surprise on the upside. Which is another way of saying there's no reason to believe she will.
    Utterly depressing, more stolid policies then a reform sweep 2029.
    RR was the first female Chancellor and it was made a big deal of. All the more so, I sense, because of the ongoing absence of a female Labour leader.

    I think it's possible that this would play into the thinking on the replacement. Context being Reeves has only done two years and the new leader is yet again male.

    It would, on this basis, devolve into a Mahmood v Cooper choice. And Mahmood is the sharper tougher politician of those two.

    Aftertime wisdom from me here though. I backed Pat McFadden.
    Cooper is a very longstanding friend of Andy Burnham.
    Is she going back to Home Sec then?

    (if Mahmood is CoE and Ed is Foreign - which is where the betting has strongly gone)

    Maybe best to just wait, I suppose. Not long now.
    Or, if she has not been well, First Secretary of State/Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Leader of the House?
    Deputy PM is also a piece of the jigsaw.
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,533

    The only way the Mahmood appointment makes sense, if it happens, is she has agreed she will just do exactly what No. 10 want on the economics front and have no ideas or agenda herself.

    I thuink she seems to have been a pretty effective operator at the Home Office, even if personally I disagree with the anti-immigrant stance she has adopted.

    She was put there with a brief to bring down immigration and has turned a poison chalice into an asset politically.
    This is the nonsense. Doing a good job, so best she stops doing it.

    Hopefully the policies will continue.
    They won’t

    Hes already folding on ILR in the face of the Far Left in Labour and their lobbying.

    Still, it’s not as if the welfare and benefits bill isn’t big enough. Plenty more to pay out.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,839
    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    So it looks like Reform will accuse anyone who criticises them of inciting violence against the party .

    I thought they supported free speech !

    I agree in general though would probably make an exception for the threat to shoot someone in the face. That does rather step over a line.
    The question is whether arresting such people is new post-Widdecombe policy or whether similar outbursts would have lead to arrest in the past. Call me a cynic...
    A thought WRT people in public life getting huge numbers of threats to kill, maim, rape etc and this being a routine aspect of their lives. Obvs social media has turned private and outrageous conversations, unknowable beyond the group in the pub, into planet wide distribution and a small number of mad, histrionic and bad people are having disproportionate effect.

    What to do?

    Nearly all the bad stuff is in fact a crime; incitement, threats, hate crime etc. nearly all of it goes uninvestigated and unpunished. it seems to me that we have a choice in society. Either accept that this will continue, and a tiny % of the population cause mayhem while some especially women MPs live in fear and threat; or develop of culture of massive and well publicised criminal law enforcement of thousands of cases which drives it into unacceptability. A parallel: drink driving.

  • TazTaz Posts: 29,533
    Labour definitely going after the so called progressives now SKS is history.


    “ The UK government is working on a ban on imports and exports to illegal Israeli settlements, the trade minister confirmed on Wednesday morning.

    Both services and goods will be prohibited from flowing to and from the outposts, Sir Chris Bryant told MPs of the Business and Trade Committee.”

    https://x.com/skynews/status/2077399342999121971?s=61
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,652
    algarkirk said:

    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    So it looks like Reform will accuse anyone who criticises them of inciting violence against the party .

    I thought they supported free speech !

    I agree in general though would probably make an exception for the threat to shoot someone in the face. That does rather step over a line.
    The question is whether arresting such people is new post-Widdecombe policy or whether similar outbursts would have lead to arrest in the past. Call me a cynic...
    A thought WRT people in public life getting huge numbers of threats to kill, maim, rape etc and this being a routine aspect of their lives. Obvs social media has turned private and outrageous conversations, unknowable beyond the group in the pub, into planet wide distribution and a small number of mad, histrionic and bad people are having disproportionate effect.

    What to do?

    Nearly all the bad stuff is in fact a crime; incitement, threats, hate crime etc. nearly all of it goes uninvestigated and unpunished. it seems to me that we have a choice in society. Either accept that this will continue, and a tiny % of the population cause mayhem while some especially women MPs live in fear and threat; or develop of culture of massive and well publicised criminal law enforcement of thousands of cases which drives it into unacceptability. A parallel: drink driving.

    There is a middle path of the social media companies doing more to stop such posts.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 60,502
    edited 5:02PM
    tlg86 said:

    There is a special place in hell for journalists who leak the England team.

    "There's a special rung in Hell reserved for people who leak good England teams. Seeing as I might be rapping on the door momentarily… I must say, that's a damn good England team."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,533
    A foreigner’s view of England football songs. Quite insightful from an outsider.

    https://x.com/msmelchen/status/2077381219700863294

    A reply to a video of hundreds of England fans heading home after the Norway match, singing “There’ll be no f***ing rowing in New York”.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,663
    algarkirk said:

    carnforth said:

    nico67 said:

    So it looks like Reform will accuse anyone who criticises them of inciting violence against the party .

    I thought they supported free speech !

    I agree in general though would probably make an exception for the threat to shoot someone in the face. That does rather step over a line.
    The question is whether arresting such people is new post-Widdecombe policy or whether similar outbursts would have lead to arrest in the past. Call me a cynic...
    A thought WRT people in public life getting huge numbers of threats to kill, maim, rape etc and this being a routine aspect of their lives. Obvs social media has turned private and outrageous conversations, unknowable beyond the group in the pub, into planet wide distribution and a small number of mad, histrionic and bad people are having disproportionate effect.

    What to do?

    Nearly all the bad stuff is in fact a crime; incitement, threats, hate crime etc. nearly all of it goes uninvestigated and unpunished. it seems to me that we have a choice in society. Either accept that this will continue, and a tiny % of the population cause mayhem while some especially women MPs live in fear and threat; or develop of culture of massive and well publicised criminal law enforcement of thousands of cases which drives it into unacceptability. A parallel: drink driving.

    I agree generally, but the analogy is inexact (aren't they all?). Drink driving is a real risk: if I do it 10000 times, I'm bound to hurt myself or someone else. Or there is a large possibility. If I threaten to kill politicians 10000 times, but never mean it, the risk to life is zero.

    (One threat each, from 10000 different people is, of course, a different matter.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,422
    carnforth said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Got on a train and within 10 minutes someone sitting nearby is watching videos on their phone with the volume turned up high. Why do people think this is acceptable?

    They don't care whether it is acceptable or not. They are selfish arseholes.

    The elderly are doing it too. I had that last night in the pub. In their defence, at least the elderly might not realise how loud it is, being half deaf.
    Pardon?
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