I reckon about 50% Farage, 35% Binface, and 15% others, on a small turnout.
Which is a really terrible look for the winner, having spent the summer arguing with a man with a bin on his head.
I'm wondering if Farage might be largely absent, but I think he has no option - the potential downside is too great for him to leave it alone.
Do we have any other Mayoral or other elections due, as afaics Ref UK are redirecting their Manchester Mayoral activists - 'now is the time for all good men to come the aid of their party."? What will the impact be?
They didn't have any real chance in the GM Mayoral election anyway because it's SV and everyone knows Labour will be in the top 2.
Though I had read on here that Burnham swapping horses had scuppered Labour chances in the GM mayoral election. Funny old game..
The “Buy-to-let Empress” was going to sweep to victory on the back of immense business acumen.
The following has changed
1) Farage has managed to tarnish his brand, especially with the "persuadable voters" - those who might move to Reform. 2) The electoral system changed to SV on 18th June, this year - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ea-bulletin-443-england 3) Starmer hasn't fought back against Burnham, the foot in mouth stuff seems to be in remission and it looks to a be a coronation - so Labour are at the top end of their current (poor) position
Of these 2) is perhaps the most important.
Note that if Burnham had got the earlier seat, it would have been a FPTP election.
Perhaps interesting that some who rail against those ignorant of the usage and effects of proportional representation on elections have missed that.
Am I alone in finding Farage a total arse *and* Binface a bit of thin joke?
No, you are not alone. Binface is a bit of a thin joke, marginally enlivening by-elections. Much the same proposition as Lord Sutch (without His Heavy Friends) but with a *slightly* more satirical edge. The character occupies much the same comedy space as any "topical news quiz".
Yes, if he were funnier or had a shred of political sense he'd be in with a shout, but he seems to be nothing more than an attention-seeker with a sub-Beano comedy act. He'll struggle to make 20%, even against Farage.
I think that's right. It's a shame we don't have a Martin Bell type candidate to humiliate Farage. Can't someone persuade Martin Lewis to stand? Or what about some national treasure? Judi Dench MP would be amusing.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
Am I alone in finding Farage a total arse *and* Binface a bit of thin joke?
No, you are not alone. Binface is a bit of a thin joke, marginally enlivening by-elections. Much the same proposition as Lord Sutch (without His Heavy Friends) but with a *slightly* more satirical edge. The character occupies much the same comedy space as any "topical news quiz".
Yes, if he were funnier or had a shred of political sense he'd be in with a shout, but he seems to be nothing more than an attention-seeker with a sub-Beano comedy act. He'll struggle to make 20%, even against Farage.
I think that's right. It's a shame we don't have a Martin Bell type candidate to humiliate Farage. Can't someone persuade Martin Lewis to stand? Or what about some national treasure? Judi Dench MP would be amusing.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
Count Binface certainly appeals to the sort of people who still think Have I Got News for You is cutting edge.
Personally I think he’s as funny as a vegetable that’s grown into a rude and amusing shape
My sides are usually intact when I hear him speak but that is really not the point. The point is he is not Nigel Farage and therefore a relative good. I would certainly vote for him in this constituency at this time but it doesn't have much to do with any personal merits he may have. I think a fair percentage of the electorate who can be bothered to vote will feel the same but not enough to win. I am guessing he ends up in the high twenties as a percentage.
They could vote for Rejoin EU, or the Climate Party, or Reclaim, or the guy dressed as a fox, or the guy dressed as a fish finger, or the former reality TV star, etc. There’s gonna be a lot of candidates.
Yes. In Davis' 2008 by-election he received ~70% of the vote, the Greens and the English Democrats took another ~15%, and all three other candidates shared the final ~15%.
I'd expect something similar in Clacton. No other candidate is likely to exceed 10%. A couple may save their deposit, and the remaining candidates will share quite a large share of the vote between them.
I think what people are missing is that there are still quite a large number of Farage fans across the country, and Clacton has the highest concentration of them for any of the 650 constituencies.
Incidentally, there's a Pathfinder 2 Humble Bundle up at the moment. Weighing up whether to get it. Probably value, but between current and next campaigns it'd likely be years before I used it (and the excellent Archives of Nethys has all the rules for free).
I'm happy to say that I have no idea what you are talking about.
Sorry for slow reply, was out.
Pathfinder 2 is a TTRPG system. Humble Bundles are very heavily discounted collections of (usually but not exclusively digital) content, such as games, comics, etc. Archives of Nethys is a website.
Is Farage suggesting MPs now need 24 hour protection ?
It comes as no surprise that he would use Widdecombes murder to try and deflect from his grifting .
If he loses, will he change his tune to ex-MPs need 24 hour protection?
There clearly is some risk to ex-MPs, but what about prominent political spokespeople who are not MP's like Polanski or Goodwin? Or even celebrities who have made controversial statements like Lineker?
Maybe we need to tone down the vitriol on Social Media, and for the police to take threats on it seriously.
I certainly agree that as a country we need to greatly tone down the way we speak to each other online. Even PB is not completely immune. The usual social norms are much reduced online with anonymity and remoteness and it coarsens the conversation. It is one of the reasons that I personally chose a fairly readily identifiable name on here. It makes me pause when I am tempted to publish something offensive (most of the time).
Whether the police should be taking this vitriol more seriously I am less sure about. It seems to me that we already have quite a lot of prosecutions for racist, sexist and abusive comments online and we sometimes seem to take this more seriously than actual violence. We need to be careful about protecting freedom of speech which includes the right (but not the obligation) to be obnoxious.
I think the core point here is for a sea change in our contemporary politics such that driving division is no longer a fruitful strategy for significant parties.
I'd agree that the nature and unrestraint of social media are factors, but that is amongst many others.
One I think we have not picked up is that we are at a potential era-defining point - as 1945 or 1979, and that we are due an updated answer to more philosophical questions such as "What is the raison d'etre of our society?"
The 1945 government was much more era defining than 1979. Attlee's government set the agenda to what we would now call social democracy with several central, and expensive, pillars still in place. (NHS, education, social housing, universal welfare, NATO). 1979, despite rhetoric, only tried to make it work better but did not shift the foundations.
The post war deal was felt by most, especially the working class, to entail a self evident raison d'etre. It was still a religious age with those assumptions. This offered a Kingdom of sorts, with profound implications for those who had had little share in a secular Kingdom before.
No-one has yet come up with a politically possible alternative to the 1945 deal. But it is too expensive to do well. Even Reform have no real plans - ask the voters of Clacton what they think of pensions and their various safety nets.
The challenge of Reform, Restore, idiots on social media, and racism could enable the three old parties (currently steady on 50% of the vote between them) to be clearer on their common ground about the future of social democracy and the ground rules of our behaviour towards each other. This is in fact enormous but because of politics they are anxious to deny it.
So for the moment I shall park your question under Too Difficult, along with CO2, social media toxicity, the middle east and Trump.
As I see it, and need to remind myself, the strategy here is to interrupt the use of rivers for ships internal to Russia - something that does not happen in the UK as we do not really have serious rivers. European mainlanders will have a natural appreciation for this.
Ships of around 5000-6000 tons can reach Moscow from the Sea of Azov, via the Don, then eventually via the "Moscow Canal". And the Don carries about 25 million barrels of oil going the other way for export each year - which is small but not negligible in the scheme of things..
The riverine craft had been commandeered to break the siege of Crimea. It was a task for which they were ill-equipped as they should not be encountering sea conditions. Plus, there was no support from the Black Sea fleet - there being no effective Black Sea fleet any longer.
Another "do something - this is something" attempt that has ended in ignomy.
The senior naval and FSB figures and their families have reportedly already left.
The power is largely out, as the power and substations have been remorselessly whacked. If power is out, so is water.
Four ferries commandeered to move supplies across Kerch were droned a couple of days back. A large convoy (50+ vehicles?) coming the long way round was utterly destroyed.
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
Agreed about Binface. The wild card for me is how well Restore will do. They appeal to same set of voters as Farage, are actual fascists rather than adjacent ones, have a very well organised and motivated base as shown in Makerfield, and are untroubled by bribery and money laundering issues. In theory they should do very well in Clacton. But will they?
The only wild-card factor I can think of is adjacent to this point. What about the "Restore-most" cohort of Farage voters? (I choose not to say "right-most" as I think that's the wrong axis, and right-wing views don't *have* to coincide with Faragiste populism, whatever the current useless right-of-centre positioning may be). Could they be sufficiently furious with Farage to stay at home? That could be a significant chunk of voters.
I fully expect Farage to get north of 70% of the vote in this non-election; but that 23.5% is not totally unassailable.
Am I alone in finding Farage a total arse *and* Binface a bit of thin joke?
No, you are not alone. Binface is a bit of a thin joke, marginally enlivening by-elections. Much the same proposition as Lord Sutch (without His Heavy Friends) but with a *slightly* more satirical edge. The character occupies much the same comedy space as any "topical news quiz".
Yes, if he were funnier or had a shred of political sense he'd be in with a shout, but he seems to be nothing more than an attention-seeker with a sub-Beano comedy act. He'll struggle to make 20%, even against Farage.
I think that's right. It's a shame we don't have a Martin Bell type candidate to humiliate Farage. Can't someone persuade Martin Lewis to stand? Or what about some national treasure? Judi Dench MP would be amusing.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
Am I alone in finding Farage a total arse *and* Binface a bit of thin joke?
No, you are not alone. Binface is a bit of a thin joke, marginally enlivening by-elections. Much the same proposition as Lord Sutch (without His Heavy Friends) but with a *slightly* more satirical edge. The character occupies much the same comedy space as any "topical news quiz".
Yes, if he were funnier or had a shred of political sense he'd be in with a shout, but he seems to be nothing more than an attention-seeker with a sub-Beano comedy act. He'll struggle to make 20%, even against Farage.
I think that's right. It's a shame we don't have a Martin Bell type candidate to humiliate Farage. Can't someone persuade Martin Lewis to stand? Or what about some national treasure? Judi Dench MP would be amusing.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
Here's one that ought to be standing - Carole Cadwalladr. She has spent years, decades trying to expose Farage for what he is, and was driven slightly mad by Brexit, where she overplayed her hand, but she would be the perfect non-Joke candidate, Martin Bell style.
The senior naval and FSB figures and their families have reportedly already left.
The power is largely out, as the power and substations have been remorselessly whacked. If power is out, so is water.
Four ferries commandeered to move supplies across Kerch were droned a couple of days back. A large convoy (50+ vehicles?) coming the long way round was utterly destroyed.
Crimea is no longer a viable Russian outpost.
Yup, they can’t get quantities of food or fuel into Crimea, so it’ll slowly starve out.
The peninsula is also much bigger than the common perception. It’s not the Isle of Wight, Sevastopol to Kerch is more than 300km. At one point 2m people lived there, although it’s not going to be close to that now. But several hundred thousand people are going to be running out of basic supplies pretty soon without something akin to the Berlin Airlift.
The Iran war is ramping up again. Overnight the US said it hit dozens of Iranian military targets including air defence systems, radar installations, missile and drone launchers and “small boats”.
In response Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan and radar systems in Oman.
Analysts say they are in a state of controlled escalation, the BBC reports.
Trump has somehow managed to negotiate into a worst position.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: “Tehran will not agree to the entry of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into the territory of the nuclear facilities.”
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
Nowhere near as many as killed by the cold each winter, of course.
In the winter of 2024 to 2025, an estimated 2,544 cold-associated deaths occurred across 3 cold weather episodes (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1,965 to 3,131)
Cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths in England. Between 2000 and 2019, cold temperatures were linked to over 60,000 deaths annually, compared with fewer than 800 heat-related deaths.
The Iran war is ramping up again. Overnight the US said it hit dozens of Iranian military targets including air defence systems, radar installations, missile and drone launchers and “small boats”.
In response Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan and radar systems in Oman.
Analysts say they are in a state of controlled escalation, the BBC reports.
Trump has somehow managed to negotiate into a worst position.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: “Tehran will not agree to the entry of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into the territory of the nuclear facilities.”
US has bombed some of the Iranian export facilities on Kharg Island.
Am I alone in finding Farage a total arse *and* Binface a bit of thin joke?
No, you are not alone. Binface is a bit of a thin joke, marginally enlivening by-elections. Much the same proposition as Lord Sutch (without His Heavy Friends) but with a *slightly* more satirical edge. The character occupies much the same comedy space as any "topical news quiz".
Yes, if he were funnier or had a shred of political sense he'd be in with a shout, but he seems to be nothing more than an attention-seeker with a sub-Beano comedy act. He'll struggle to make 20%, even against Farage.
I think that's right. It's a shame we don't have a Martin Bell type candidate to humiliate Farage. Can't someone persuade Martin Lewis to stand? Or what about some national treasure? Judi Dench MP would be amusing.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
Here's one that ought to be standing - Carole Cadwalladr. She has spent years, decades trying to expose Farage for what he is, and was driven slightly mad by Brexit, where she overplayed her hand, but she would be the perfect non-Joke candidate, Martin Bell style.
Farage would call her a blatant liar, whose every column about the Brexit campaigns had to be corrected by the Observer the following week. She’s the ultimate Establishment figure bogeywoman in his mind.
You need a Martin Lewis or similar, a genuine non-political person in a white suit.
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
Nowhere near as many as killed by the cold each winter, of course.
In the winter of 2024 to 2025, an estimated 2,544 cold-associated deaths occurred across 3 cold weather episodes (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1,965 to 3,131)
Cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths in England. Between 2000 and 2019, cold temperatures were linked to over 60,000 deaths annually, compared with fewer than 800 heat-related deaths.
And lots of other people too. I have been mildly shocked by the additional mortality caused by the heat. We may well have another couple of thousand excess deaths this week (hopefully not including any of those who have to wear horse hair on their heads, waistcoat, tails and a court gown in this heat).
I’m sure you can think of colleagues whose obituaries you would read with great pleasure.
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
Nowhere near as many as killed by the cold each winter, of course.
In the winter of 2024 to 2025, an estimated 2,544 cold-associated deaths occurred across 3 cold weather episodes (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1,965 to 3,131)
Cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths in England. Between 2000 and 2019, cold temperatures were linked to over 60,000 deaths annually, compared with fewer than 800 heat-related deaths.
(Though that 60 000 includes respiratory infections linked to cold damp weather, as well as straightforward coldness.)
Summer Air Conditioning Fuel Payment incoming?
I suspect that would be rational governance but impossible politics. The idea of elderly people struggling with the cold is so etched in our folk memories that it feels like the priorlty even if it isn't.
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
Nowhere near as many as killed by the cold each winter, of course.
That's why the absolute numbers are not the point. It's the excess deaths (or the negative thereof) that matters.
It's also a typically infuriating BBC article. It summarises the report, fails to indicate whether this is absolute numbers or excess deaths, and fails to link to the source.
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
Nowhere near as many as killed by the cold each winter, of course.
In the winter of 2024 to 2025, an estimated 2,544 cold-associated deaths occurred across 3 cold weather episodes (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1,965 to 3,131)
Cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths in England. Between 2000 and 2019, cold temperatures were linked to over 60,000 deaths annually, compared with fewer than 800 heat-related deaths.
(Though that 60 000 includes respiratory infections linked to cold damp weather, as well as straightforward coldness.)
It's really surprised me that my mobility problems have increased with the hot weather, quite the reverse of what I expected. Heard several people my age say the heat's affected them the same.
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
My guess is this:
For most people in Clacton to vote for Binface involves a multi stage argument, obvious to anoraks and irony fans but not to most people. These are the hurdles to Binface getting a large vote:
1) Farage is going to win so there is no point in voting in a pointless election 2) The other parties have said in effect this is a non event; voters believe it 3) Binface is an idiot, which is fine but not worth getting out of bed for 4) There is no candidate, if you oppose Farage, ordinary people actually want to see as their MP, especially Binface. Voting for an idiot to oppose an idiot is not politics 5) Most people don't do irony. This might work in Cambridge or Hampstead. A white knight may have worked in Clacton but I doubt it.
Conclusion: low turnout, big % win on small vote. Farage win. Binface 10-15%.
If Binface was a local, so that local people knew him and could naturally be part of the joke, then I think he'd have a genuine chance of winning.
There are going to be so many other minor and joke candidates that the non-Farage vote is going to be split, so I'd be very surprised if any other candidate gets 10%.
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
My guess is this:
For most people in Clacton to vote for Binface involves a multi stage argument, obvious to anoraks and irony fans but not to most people. These are the hurdles to Binface getting a large vote:
1) Farage is going to win so there is no point in voting in a pointless election 2) The other parties have said in effect this is a non event; voters believe it 3) Binface is an idiot, which is fine but not worth getting out of bed for 4) There is no candidate, if you oppose Farage, ordinary people actually want to see as their MP, especially Binface. Voting for an idiot to oppose an idiot is not politics 5) Most people don't do irony. This might work in Cambridge or Hampstead. A white knight may have worked in Clacton but I doubt it.
Conclusion: low turnout, big % win on small vote. Farage win. Binface 10-15%.
I'd guess it depends how many locals dislike Farage enough to make the effort to register a vote against him. A low turnout is likely; if (for example) Farage backers are twice as likely to vote as Farage haters, then the 23.5% is bang on the money.
It's guesswork based on not a lot of data, though.
Because there is no serious opposition my own view is that turnout will be low, but the Farage % will be very high, which will give him a figure to publicise. Possible: Turnout 40%. Farage 75-80%. This is not a prediction! DYOR.
I would be delighted to be wrong. It's not a market I am entering.
40% turnout would be amazing for Farage. It would be higher than for the Davis by-election in 2008, and his seat generally has much higher turnout than Clacton.
Farage will be doing well if turnout stays above 30%.
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
My guess is this:
For most people in Clacton to vote for Binface involves a multi stage argument, obvious to anoraks and irony fans but not to most people. These are the hurdles to Binface getting a large vote:
1) Farage is going to win so there is no point in voting in a pointless election 2) The other parties have said in effect this is a non event; voters believe it 3) Binface is an idiot, which is fine but not worth getting out of bed for 4) There is no candidate, if you oppose Farage, ordinary people actually want to see as their MP, especially Binface. Voting for an idiot to oppose an idiot is not politics 5) Most people don't do irony. This might work in Cambridge or Hampstead. A white knight may have worked in Clacton but I doubt it.
Conclusion: low turnout, big % win on small vote. Farage win. Binface 10-15%.
I'd guess it depends how many locals dislike Farage enough to make the effort to register a vote against him. A low turnout is likely; if (for example) Farage backers are twice as likely to vote as Farage haters, then the 23.5% is bang on the money.
It's guesswork based on not a lot of data, though.
Because there is no serious opposition my own view is that turnout will be low, but the Farage % will be very high, which will give him a figure to publicise. Possible: Turnout 40%. Farage 75-80%. This is not a prediction! DYOR.
I would be delighted to be wrong. It's not a market I am entering.
40% turnout would be amazing for Farage. It would be higher than for the Davis by-election in 2008, and his seat generally has much higher turnout than Clacton.
Farage will be doing well if turnout stays above 30%.
If turnout is above 25% I will be very surprised...
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
My guess is this:
For most people in Clacton to vote for Binface involves a multi stage argument, obvious to anoraks and irony fans but not to most people. These are the hurdles to Binface getting a large vote:
1) Farage is going to win so there is no point in voting in a pointless election 2) The other parties have said in effect this is a non event; voters believe it 3) Binface is an idiot, which is fine but not worth getting out of bed for 4) There is no candidate, if you oppose Farage, ordinary people actually want to see as their MP, especially Binface. Voting for an idiot to oppose an idiot is not politics 5) Most people don't do irony. This might work in Cambridge or Hampstead. A white knight may have worked in Clacton but I doubt it.
Conclusion: low turnout, big % win on small vote. Farage win. Binface 10-15%.
If Binface was a local, so that local people knew him and could naturally be part of the joke, then I think he'd have a genuine chance of winning.
There are going to be so many other minor and joke candidates that the non-Farage vote is going to be split, so I'd be very surprised if any other candidate gets 10%.
Local...or well known (the "White Knight" option). The problem for Binface is that he is not, in fact, well known, outside of political nerd circles. Partly because he is a character who wears a bin on his face, rather than a "real person".
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
Agreed about Binface. The wild card for me is how well Restore will do. They appeal to same set of voters as Farage, are actual fascists rather than adjacent ones, have a very well organised and motivated base as shown in Makerfield, and are untroubled by bribery and money laundering issues. In theory they should do very well in Clacton. But will they?
The only wild-card factor I can think of is adjacent to this point. What about the "Restore-most" cohort of Farage voters? (I choose not to say "right-most" as I think that's the wrong axis, and right-wing views don't *have* to coincide with Faragiste populism, whatever the current useless right-of-centre positioning may be). Could they be sufficiently furious with Farage to stay at home? That could be a significant chunk of voters.
I fully expect Farage to get north of 70% of the vote in this non-election; but that 23.5% is not totally unassailable.
Restore aren't standing, but a couple of candidates of that ilk are - Reclaim and the British Democrats.
The BNP received 4.6% in 2010, so there's a good chance of one of those two saving their deposit on a low turnout.
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
Incidentally, there's a Pathfinder 2 Humble Bundle up at the moment. Weighing up whether to get it. Probably value, but between current and next campaigns it'd likely be years before I used it (and the excellent Archives of Nethys has all the rules for free).
I'm happy to say that I have no idea what you are talking about.
Sorry for slow reply, was out.
Pathfinder 2 is a TTRPG system. Humble Bundles are very heavily discounted collections of (usually but not exclusively digital) content, such as games, comics, etc. Archives of Nethys is a website.
Thanks. I'm still stuck with something, something, rocket propelled grenade.
I guess if I drop into full rail crank parlance, it would be equally baffling to the uninitiated.
As I see it, and need to remind myself, the strategy here is to interrupt the use of rivers for ships internal to Russia - something that does not happen in the UK as we do not really have serious rivers. European mainlanders will have a natural appreciation for this.
Ships of around 5000-6000 tons can reach Moscow from the Sea of Azov, via the Don, then eventually via the "Moscow Canal". And the Don carries about 25 million barrels of oil going the other way for export each year - which is small but not negligible in the scheme of things..
No, this is part of the strategy to isolate Crimea. River barges have been pressed into service for supplying Crimea by Russia because of the damage to the Kerch bridge.
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
Nowhere near as many as killed by the cold each winter, of course.
That's why the absolute numbers are not the point. It's the excess deaths (or the negative thereof) that matters.
It's also a typically infuriating BBC article. It summarises the report, fails to indicate whether this is absolute numbers or excess deaths, and fails to link to the source.
"We estimate a total of 553 (95% empirical Confidence Intervals: 426 - 704) excess heat-related deaths during 21-29 May 2026 and 2,183 (95%eCI: 1,582 - 2,724) during 18-28 June 2026 in England and Wales."
The lack of links in due to the religious belief that the links to outside sites are bad - because they take the customer to someone else's site.
If I was a billionaire, I would love to take over The Times (or similar) and make every article a link fest. Further, make stories a flow, rather than a one off snap shot. Oh, and remove the paywall - no ads for subscribers. And make the archive a curated wiki.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Prediction - The bullshit agreement between two sets of bullshiters, liars and sociopaths will turn out to be bullshit. Again.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
The senior naval and FSB figures and their families have reportedly already left.
The power is largely out, as the power and substations have been remorselessly whacked. If power is out, so is water.
Four ferries commandeered to move supplies across Kerch were droned a couple of days back. A large convoy (50+ vehicles?) coming the long way round was utterly destroyed.
Crimea is no longer a viable Russian outpost.
Yup, they can’t get quantities of food or fuel into Crimea, so it’ll slowly starve out.
The peninsula is also much bigger than the common perception. It’s not the Isle of Wight, Sevastopol to Kerch is more than 300km. At one point 2m people lived there, although it’s not going to be close to that now. But several hundred thousand people are going to be running out of basic supplies pretty soon without something akin to the Berlin Airlift.
Crimea is slightly larger than Wales in area with a slightly lower population. They are comparable.
Voters who supported the party because it was not like the others will be disappointed at his recent conduct.
Because Reform is not like the other parties - the Tories / Labour pay attention to where money comes from and if it doesn't follow the rules they return it....
Edit -removed the Lib Dems from the list because their 2005 issues.
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
Nowhere near as many as killed by the cold each winter, of course.
That's why the absolute numbers are not the point. It's the excess deaths (or the negative thereof) that matters.
It's also a typically infuriating BBC article. It summarises the report, fails to indicate whether this is absolute numbers or excess deaths, and fails to link to the source.
"We estimate a total of 553 (95% empirical Confidence Intervals: 426 - 704) excess heat-related deaths during 21-29 May 2026 and 2,183 (95%eCI: 1,582 - 2,724) during 18-28 June 2026 in England and Wales."
The lack of links in due to the religious belief that the links to outside sites are bad - because they take the customer to someone else's site.
If I was a billionaire, I would love to take over The Times (or similar) and make every article a link fest. Further, make stories a flow, rather than a one off snap shot. Oh, and remove the paywall - no ads for subscribers. And make the archive a curated wiki.
Even when sites have links out they just 'nofollow' the vast majority of them, breaking the concept of a link graph.
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Perhaps a more interesting test is whether Farage beats the 13,000 the 2nd placed candidate (Conservative) got last time.
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Perhaps a more interesting test is whether Farage beats the 13,000 the 2nd placed candidate (Conservative) got last time.
Turnout is going to be everything for this by-election and why on earth would anyone go out and vote.
I mean as a family we all would because people died to get the vote but even I would struggle this time round...
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Perhaps a more interesting test is whether Farage beats the 13,000 the 2nd placed candidate (Conservative) got last time.
Turnout is going to be everything for this by-election and why on earth would anyone go out and vote.
I mean as a family we all would because people died to get the vote but even I would struggle this time round...
If it's anything like as hot as it has been, most people would count it an unnecessary effort/journey, IMHO.
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
My guess is this:
For most people in Clacton to vote for Binface involves a multi stage argument, obvious to anoraks and irony fans but not to most people. These are the hurdles to Binface getting a large vote:
1) Farage is going to win so there is no point in voting in a pointless election 2) The other parties have said in effect this is a non event; voters believe it 3) Binface is an idiot, which is fine but not worth getting out of bed for 4) There is no candidate, if you oppose Farage, ordinary people actually want to see as their MP, especially Binface. Voting for an idiot to oppose an idiot is not politics 5) Most people don't do irony. This might work in Cambridge or Hampstead. A white knight may have worked in Clacton but I doubt it.
Conclusion: low turnout, big % win on small vote. Farage win. Binface 10-15%.
If Binface was a local, so that local people knew him and could naturally be part of the joke, then I think he'd have a genuine chance of winning.
There are going to be so many other minor and joke candidates that the non-Farage vote is going to be split, so I'd be very surprised if any other candidate gets 10%.
I am among the Bin-sceptical, so who else might come second? So far, there are three possible contenders in my eyes, Reclaim, Rejoin and an independent.
Laurence Fox (Reclaim): offers the same as Farage, but without the corruption. Fox's record in elections is very poor, but if the people of Clactin like Reform and UKIP, then Reclaim should be attractive to them.
t.b.a. (Rejoin EU): Rejoin EU are a serious party. They frequently stand in elections. They don't generally do very well, but they do better than some fringe parties. It's a simple message. They are obviously the opposite of Farage. Could they suck up some of the anti-Farage vote?
Luke Worley (independent): former reality TV person. Grew up in Clacton. I don't know how serious he is, but will that local connection and knowledge help?
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Perhaps a more interesting test is whether Farage beats the 13,000 the 2nd placed candidate (Conservative) got last time.
Turnout is going to be everything for this by-election and why on earth would anyone go out and vote.
I mean as a family we all would because people died to get the vote but even I would struggle this time round...
If it's anything like as hot as it has been, most people would count it an unnecessary effort/journey, IMHO.
Very low 20's here ATM, and we're about 20 miles inland of Clacton.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Is there a market on Farage's vote share? I think Farage will win easily, but I don't think he'll get 90%+. There are plenty of Clacton voters who voted against him. Sure, turnout will be low, but they won't all vanish. They'll turn up and vote for someone.
Between 5 and 6% is my prediction. Deposit saved which is unheard of for joke candidates, but only barely.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Perhaps a more interesting test is whether Farage beats the 13,000 the 2nd placed candidate (Conservative) got last time.
Turnout is going to be everything for this by-election and why on earth would anyone go out and vote.
I mean as a family we all would because people died to get the vote but even I would struggle this time round...
If it's anything like as hot as it has been, most people would count it an unnecessary effort/journey, IMHO.
And if the weather suddenly cools off, most people would count it an unnecessary effort/journey, IMHO.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
I believe the approved methodology is to set fire to the Whitehouse. After stealing all the cutlery.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
America is a democracy, so I would like to see a completely different leader elected at the next election.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
TBF, I'm sure I'm not the only person on this board who would be delighted to see the pseudo-religious grifting paedophiles with links to organised crime and holding power through dubious election results with the backing of more or less openly corrupt courts removed.
And it would be good to see the back of the Ayatollahs too.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
Didn't work n 1812, when the British burned the White House.
I hate adding to conspiracy theories, but oh well, if you insist..
𝕲𝖆𝖊𝖙𝖆𝖓𝖔 @gmf1369 Photo 1 (widely shared 2023 version): Mitch McConnell and Elaine Chao in a recovery/rehab setting. McConnell wears the red gingham shirt, smiles broadly while holding printed material, seated in the blue chair with white linens behind
Photo 2 (the version associated with the July 12, 2026 update): Appears identical to Photo 1 in every visible detail — same clothing, exact same pose and expressions, same background, same blue chair, same item in McConnell’s hand, same lighting and composition.
Side-by-side observation: These are the same photograph (originally from April 2023). No meaningful differences exist in subject positioning, clothing, facial expressions, background elements, or any other visual detail. Minor variations in cropping, resolution, or on-screen overlays (e.g., news logos or borders in different articles) may appear depending on the source, but the core image content is unchanged.
This confirms the image being referenced in recent discussions is the older one being recirculated. If you have different specific versions/URLs in mind, share them for further comparison!
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
TBF, I'm sure I'm not the only person on this board who would be delighted to see the pseudo-religious grifting paedophiles with links to organised crime and holding power through dubious election results with the backing of more or less openly corrupt courts removed.
And it would be good to see the back of the Ayatollahs too.
Iran entered the negotiations not like the vanquished Party, but like the victors.
I’d like all three sides to be replaced. The Mullahs, MAGA and the Far Right Israeli regime
To be fair he seems to be one of the few on here loyal to Farage
Indeed the way Farage is behaving he is going to need all the support he can get, as he seems to have decided to take on everyone in a brazen attempt to deflect from his and reforms financial troubles
Message to Farage:
The public will not be taken for fools for much longer
Am I alone in finding Farage a total arse *and* Binface a bit of thin joke?
No, you are not alone. Binface is a bit of a thin joke, marginally enlivening by-elections. Much the same proposition as Lord Sutch (without His Heavy Friends) but with a *slightly* more satirical edge. The character occupies much the same comedy space as any "topical news quiz".
Yes, if he were funnier or had a shred of political sense he'd be in with a shout, but he seems to be nothing more than an attention-seeker with a sub-Beano comedy act. He'll struggle to make 20%, even against Farage.
I think that's right. It's a shame we don't have a Martin Bell type candidate to humiliate Farage. Can't someone persuade Martin Lewis to stand? Or what about some national treasure? Judi Dench MP would be amusing.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
Not just Binface. Labour, Conservative, Green, LibDem voters don't count because their betters in London decided humiliating Nigel Farage was more important than democracy. Not that that isn't altogether a bad thing.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
Didn't work n 1812, when the British burned the White House.
Well, the result of the war was pretty much everything the British wanted. And the US got pretty much nothing. And a lasting peace resulted.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
TBF, I'm sure I'm not the only person on this board who would be delighted to see the pseudo-religious grifting paedophiles with links to organised crime and holding power through dubious election results with the backing of more or less openly corrupt courts removed.
And it would be good to see the back of the Ayatollahs too.
Iran entered the negotiations not like the vanquished Party, but like the victors.
I’d like all three sides to be replaced. The Mullahs, MAGA and the Far Right Israeli regime
I wasn't at all sympathetic to the Iranian regime until Trump started bombing them. Now I'm not quite so sure!
GPs have high workload and high pay, so the obvious way to avoid becoming burnt out is to work part-time. You still earn well, but you don't kill yourself with the work. More even than that, because of the workload, many GPs are notionally part-time in terms of the number of sessions they work, but they are working full-time in terms of the number of hours they are working.
However, another factor is that a lot of GPs go for a "portfolio" career: they'll work part-time in a GP practice and part-time elsewhere. So, they are still doctoring full-time, often still being a GP full-time, but in more than one place. That can add variety to the job, provide flexibility. I work in healthcare research, so we get lots of GPs who are part-time GP'ing and part-time doing research, for example.
Being a GP is also seen as being more family friendly than being a hospital doctor. When my Mum became a single mother, she switched from being a surgeon to being a GP. That was a long time ago, but similar issues still apply. That said, the rate of being part-time is equally high in male and female GPs.
To be fair he seems to be one of the few on here loyal to Farage
Indeed the way Farage is behaving he is going to need all the support he can get, as he seems to have decided to take on everyone in a brazen attempt to deflect from his and reforms financial troubles
Message to Farage:
The public will not be taken for fools for much longer
You can fool some of the people all the time, and those are the ones you want to concentrate on. Groerge W Bush
The GPs contracts became an interesting social experiment in the idea of people trading money for less work.
The answer is that if you give people the flexibility, and they have enough money, people will trade money for time with their children and a relaxing lifestyle. When they don't have bosses to try and threaten them into working 9-5 every day.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
TBF, I'm sure I'm not the only person on this board who would be delighted to see the pseudo-religious grifting paedophiles with links to organised crime and holding power through dubious election results with the backing of more or less openly corrupt courts removed.
And it would be good to see the back of the Ayatollahs too.
Iran entered the negotiations not like the vanquished Party, but like the victors.
I’d like all three sides to be replaced. The Mullahs, MAGA and the Far Right Israeli regime
I wasn't at all sympathetic to the Iranian regime until Trump started bombing them. Now I'm not quite so sure!
That’s a shame as I know a couple of Iranians in the UK. The regime can never be supported. Trump is awful but comparable to Iran ? Really ?
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
TBF, I'm sure I'm not the only person on this board who would be delighted to see the pseudo-religious grifting paedophiles with links to organised crime and holding power through dubious election results with the backing of more or less openly corrupt courts removed.
And it would be good to see the back of the Ayatollahs too.
Iran entered the negotiations not like the vanquished Party, but like the victors.
I’d like all three sides to be replaced. The Mullahs, MAGA and the Far Right Israeli regime
I wasn't at all sympathetic to the Iranian regime until Trump started bombing them. Now I'm not quite so sure!
Don’t be sympathetic to them!
So many of the problems in the Middle East of the past half century have Iran’s fingerprints all over them.
GPs have high workload and high pay, so the obvious way to avoid becoming burnt out is to work part-time. You still earn well, but you don't kill yourself with the work. More even than that, because of the workload, many GPs are notionally part-time in terms of the number of sessions they work, but they are working full-time in terms of the number of hours they are working.
However, another factor is that a lot of GPs go for a "portfolio" career: they'll work part-time in a GP practice and part-time elsewhere. So, they are still doctoring full-time, often still being a GP full-time, but in more than one place. That can add variety to the job, provide flexibility. I work in healthcare research, so we get lots of GPs who are part-time GP'ing and part-time doing research, for example.
Being a GP is also seen as being more family friendly than being a hospital doctor. When my Mum became a single mother, she switched from being a surgeon to being a GP. That was a long time ago, but similar issues still apply. That said, the rate of being part-time is equally high in male and female GPs.
If I had high pay and my hours were flexible and I had little outgoings I’d certainly not work full time.
It's a genuinely difficult one to predict. While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity. It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
My guess is this:
For most people in Clacton to vote for Binface involves a multi stage argument, obvious to anoraks and irony fans but not to most people. These are the hurdles to Binface getting a large vote:
1) Farage is going to win so there is no point in voting in a pointless election 2) The other parties have said in effect this is a non event; voters believe it 3) Binface is an idiot, which is fine but not worth getting out of bed for 4) There is no candidate, if you oppose Farage, ordinary people actually want to see as their MP, especially Binface. Voting for an idiot to oppose an idiot is not politics 5) Most people don't do irony. This might work in Cambridge or Hampstead. A white knight may have worked in Clacton but I doubt it.
Conclusion: low turnout, big % win on small vote. Farage win. Binface 10-15%.
If Binface was a local, so that local people knew him and could naturally be part of the joke, then I think he'd have a genuine chance of winning.
There are going to be so many other minor and joke candidates that the non-Farage vote is going to be split, so I'd be very surprised if any other candidate gets 10%.
I am among the Bin-sceptical, so who else might come second? So far, there are three possible contenders in my eyes, Reclaim, Rejoin and an independent.
Laurence Fox (Reclaim): offers the same as Farage, but without the corruption. Fox's record in elections is very poor, but if the people of Clactin like Reform and UKIP, then Reclaim should be attractive to them.
t.b.a. (Rejoin EU): Rejoin EU are a serious party. They frequently stand in elections. They don't generally do very well, but they do better than some fringe parties. It's a simple message. They are obviously the opposite of Farage. Could they suck up some of the anti-Farage vote?
Luke Worley (independent): former reality TV person. Grew up in Clacton. I don't know how serious he is, but will that local connection and knowledge help?
I think the British Democrats are a possible second to take the openly fascist vote. 4.6% for the BNP in 2010 shows the potential.
I've no idea how well known or liked Luke Worley is in the constituency, but you can see how a local candidate could gain traction. If he was serious he'd probably be the most likely to cause an upset as a local boy against Westminster games.
But without any local intelligence from the place it's also possible that most people there think he's a knob for his reality TV activities.
Am I alone in finding Farage a total arse *and* Binface a bit of thin joke?
No, you are not alone. Binface is a bit of a thin joke, marginally enlivening by-elections. Much the same proposition as Lord Sutch (without His Heavy Friends) but with a *slightly* more satirical edge. The character occupies much the same comedy space as any "topical news quiz".
Yes, if he were funnier or had a shred of political sense he'd be in with a shout, but he seems to be nothing more than an attention-seeker with a sub-Beano comedy act. He'll struggle to make 20%, even against Farage.
I think that's right. It's a shame we don't have a Martin Bell type candidate to humiliate Farage. Can't someone persuade Martin Lewis to stand? Or what about some national treasure? Judi Dench MP would be amusing.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
Not just Binface. Labour, Conservative, Green, LibDem voters don't count because their betters in London decided humiliating Nigel Farage was more important than democracy. Not that that isn't altogether a bad thing.
Not quite. It isn't a rule of democracy that you take stunts seriously. To resign and stand again in a seat you already hold for another three years is nothing to do with democracy, it is (as it was for Davis) an obvious abuse of process and should not be allowed.
It sounds low but it is not impossible since recent changes mean the old partnership model of general practice is dying out. Most GPs are now salaried GPs rather than partners, and that makes it easier to work part-time and also to have portfolio careers: for instance being part-time as a GP but also in A&E or dermatology or whatever. Practices are now being merged or taken over which accelerates this.
If you go to the website of any GP practice (search for Randomsville doctors to get a list) and somewhere on it will be a list of doctors working there and whether they are partners or not, and often you can see if they are part-time if their availability is also shown.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
US markets open in only a few hours.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Need to get a real leader into the White House instead of the loser who is there who can get regime change in Iran.
Trump is pathetic.
So, to get regime change in Iran, you want regime change in the US? Do you suggest the same approach to achieving regime change, starting with bombing Washington?
Didn't work n 1812, when the British burned the White House.
It stopped America capturing Canada, aka not the 51st state.
Comments
1) Farage has managed to tarnish his brand, especially with the "persuadable voters" - those who might move to Reform.
2) The electoral system changed to SV on 18th June, this year - https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/ea-bulletin-443-england
3) Starmer hasn't fought back against Burnham, the foot in mouth stuff seems to be in remission and it looks to a be a coronation - so Labour are at the top end of their current (poor) position
Of these 2) is perhaps the most important.
Note that if Burnham had got the earlier seat, it would have been a FPTP election.
Perhaps interesting that some who rail against those ignorant of the usage and effects of proportional representation on elections have missed that.
― Sun Tzu
In this case, don't blow it up...
"More than 2,700 people may have died in exceptional May and June heatwaves in England and Wales"
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
The issue with Binface is he brings democracy (further) into disrepute.
he was protesting against MPs "flipping" their second homes. So that may not meet your definition of joke.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/election2010/results/constituency/a79.stm
The Election was won by Big Bad John.
(Incoming Andrew Neil with hair.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2P3ww6Fk6k
I'd expect something similar in Clacton. No other candidate is likely to exceed 10%. A couple may save their deposit, and the remaining candidates will share quite a large share of the vote between them.
I think what people are missing is that there are still quite a large number of Farage fans across the country, and Clacton has the highest concentration of them for any of the 650 constituencies.
There’s already serious water and fuel problems in many parts of the peninsula, I think I’d be finding a way out if I was there.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/2076322614050447596
Pathfinder 2 is a TTRPG system. Humble Bundles are very heavily discounted collections of (usually but not exclusively digital) content, such as games, comics, etc. Archives of Nethys is a website.
The post war deal was felt by most, especially the working class, to entail a self evident raison d'etre. It was still a religious age with those assumptions. This offered a Kingdom of sorts, with profound implications for those who had had little share in a secular Kingdom before.
No-one has yet come up with a politically possible alternative to the 1945 deal. But it is too expensive to do well. Even Reform have no real plans - ask the voters of Clacton what they think of pensions and their various safety nets.
The challenge of Reform, Restore, idiots on social media, and racism could enable the three old parties (currently steady on 50% of the vote between them) to be clearer on their common ground about the future of social democracy and the ground rules of our behaviour towards each other. This is in fact enormous but because of politics they are anxious to deny it.
So for the moment I shall park your question under Too Difficult, along with CO2, social media toxicity, the middle east and Trump.
Another "do something - this is something" attempt that has ended in ignomy.
However Farage, Lozza, Binface and a guy dressed as a Fox slugging it out on Question Time is comedy gold.
The power is largely out, as the power and substations have been remorselessly whacked. If power is out, so is water.
Four ferries commandeered to move supplies across Kerch were droned a couple of days back. A large convoy (50+ vehicles?) coming the long way round was utterly destroyed.
Crimea is no longer a viable Russian outpost.
What's happened to the weather this morning; cloudy and windy here, with only occasional breaks for some sunshine!
However, Good Morning everyone.
The largest share of the vote in a peacetime by-election since 1918 is 97.4% (Ian Paisley, North Antrim, 1986).
The lowest turnout in a peacetime by-election since 1918 is 18.2% (Manchester Central, 2012).
The fewest votes for the winning candidate in a peacetime by-election since 1918 is probably 5,483 (Combined English Universities, 1946).
Farage might break all three records. Which I would find hilarious.
The peninsula is also much bigger than the common perception. It’s not the Isle of Wight, Sevastopol to Kerch is more than 300km. At one point 2m people lived there, although it’s not going to be close to that now. But several hundred thousand people are going to be running out of basic supplies pretty soon without something akin to the Berlin Airlift.
The Iran war is ramping up again. Overnight the US said it hit dozens of Iranian military targets including air defence systems, radar installations, missile and drone launchers and “small boats”.
In response Iran targeted US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan and radar systems in Oman.
Analysts say they are in a state of controlled escalation, the BBC reports.
Trump has somehow managed to negotiate into a worst position.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: “Tehran will not agree to the entry of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into the territory of the nuclear facilities.”
an estimated 2,544 cold-associated deaths occurred across 3 cold weather episodes (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1,965 to 3,131)
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/cold-mortality-monitoring-report-england-winter-2024-to-2025/cold-mortality-monitoring-report-winter-2024-to-2025
Both those numbers have changed, for sure:
Cold-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths in England. Between 2000 and 2019, cold temperatures were linked to over 60,000 deaths annually, compared with fewer than 800 heat-related deaths.
https://post.parliament.uk/research-briefings/post-pn-0752/
(Though that 60 000 includes respiratory infections linked to cold damp weather, as well as straightforward coldness.)
https://x.com/hormuzletter/status/2076571792798347590
You need a Martin Lewis or similar, a genuine non-political person in a white suit.
It might be as simple as "old" and "cold" rhyme.
I see Reform are having a complete meltdown online this morning.
I see Reform are having a complete meltdown online this morning.
There are going to be so many other minor and joke candidates that the non-Farage vote is going to be split, so I'd be very surprised if any other candidate gets 10%.
Farage will be doing well if turnout stays above 30%.
The BNP received 4.6% in 2010, so there's a good chance of one of those two saving their deposit on a low turnout.
Realistically it is only people like us who care about politics that will even hear of him or find him funny.
The entire joke will pass most voters by. Farage will get about 90%+ of the vote on a dismal turnout as his voters will turn out to vote for him and next-to-nobody else will.
Iran Foreign Ministry says the agreement with the US has “undoubtedly entered a crisis phase,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei says in his weekly press conference. Says ships taking US parallel routes in Hormuz are at risk.
I guess if I drop into full rail crank parlance, it would be equally baffling to the uninitiated.
heat-related deaths during 21-29 May 2026 and 2,183 (95%eCI: 1,582 - 2,724) during
18-28 June 2026 in England and Wales."
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/grantham-institute/public/publications/collaborative-publications/Climate-change-increases-heat-health-risks-from-2026’s-May-and-June-heatwaves.pdf
The lack of links in due to the religious belief that the links to outside sites are bad - because they take the customer to someone else's site.
If I was a billionaire, I would love to take over The Times (or similar) and make every article a link fest. Further, make stories a flow, rather than a one off snap shot. Oh, and remove the paywall - no ads for subscribers. And make the archive a curated wiki.
We must be a due a leak to Axios about how well negotiates are going???
Trump is pathetic.
They are comparable.
Voters who supported the party because it was not like the others will be disappointed at his recent conduct.
Because Reform is not like the other parties - the Tories / Labour pay attention to where money comes from and if it doesn't follow the rules they return it....
Edit -removed the Lib Dems from the list because their 2005 issues.
I mean as a family we all would because people died to get the vote but even I would struggle this time round...
https://bsky.app/profile/cg1999.bsky.social/post/3mqhbwxlhn22h
Laurence Fox (Reclaim): offers the same as Farage, but without the corruption. Fox's record in elections is very poor, but if the people of Clactin like Reform and UKIP, then Reclaim should be attractive to them.
t.b.a. (Rejoin EU): Rejoin EU are a serious party. They frequently stand in elections. They don't generally do very well, but they do better than some fringe parties. It's a simple message. They are obviously the opposite of Farage. Could they suck up some of the anti-Farage vote?
Luke Worley (independent): former reality TV person. Grew up in Clacton. I don't know how serious he is, but will that local connection and knowledge help?
https://x.com/cjsnowdon/status/2076345019187736735
Iran is not a democracy.
And it would be good to see the back of the Ayatollahs too.
I guess he would have dropped the legal stuff if he got that plum role?
𝕲𝖆𝖊𝖙𝖆𝖓𝖔
@gmf1369
Photo 1 (widely shared 2023 version): Mitch McConnell and Elaine Chao in a recovery/rehab setting. McConnell wears the red gingham shirt, smiles broadly while holding printed material, seated in the blue chair with white linens behind
Photo 2 (the version associated with the July 12, 2026 update): Appears identical to Photo 1 in every visible detail — same clothing, exact same pose and expressions, same background, same blue chair, same item in McConnell’s hand, same lighting and composition.
Side-by-side observation: These are the same photograph (originally from April 2023). No meaningful differences exist in subject positioning, clothing, facial expressions, background elements, or any other visual detail. Minor variations in cropping, resolution, or on-screen overlays (e.g., news logos or borders in different articles) may appear depending on the source, but the core image content is unchanged.
This confirms the image being referenced in recent discussions is the older one being recirculated. If you have different specific versions/URLs in mind, share them for further comparison!
Someone has some splaining to do!
https://x.com/gmf1369/status/2076455241902678502?s=20
I’d like all three sides to be replaced. The Mullahs, MAGA and the Far Right Israeli regime
To be fair he seems to be one of the few on here loyal to Farage
Indeed the way Farage is behaving he is going to need all the support he can get, as he seems to have decided to take on everyone in a brazen attempt to deflect from his and reforms financial troubles
Message to Farage:
The public will not be taken for fools for much longer
{Opens a really, really large box of matches}
So...
GPs have high workload and high pay, so the obvious way to avoid becoming burnt out is to work part-time. You still earn well, but you don't kill yourself with the work. More even than that, because of the workload, many GPs are notionally part-time in terms of the number of sessions they work, but they are working full-time in terms of the number of hours they are working.
However, another factor is that a lot of GPs go for a "portfolio" career: they'll work part-time in a GP practice and part-time elsewhere. So, they are still doctoring full-time, often still being a GP full-time, but in more than one place. That can add variety to the job, provide flexibility. I work in healthcare research, so we get lots of GPs who are part-time GP'ing and part-time doing research, for example.
Being a GP is also seen as being more family friendly than being a hospital doctor. When my Mum became a single mother, she switched from being a surgeon to being a GP. That was a long time ago, but similar issues still apply. That said, the rate of being part-time is equally high in male and female GPs.
Groerge W Bush
The answer is that if you give people the flexibility, and they have enough money, people will trade money for time with their children and a relaxing lifestyle. When they don't have bosses to try and threaten them into working 9-5 every day.
The Iranian regime is as vile as the Israeli one.
So many of the problems in the Middle East of the past half century have Iran’s fingerprints all over them.
I'm looking forward to his forecast for Clacton though.
I've no idea how well known or liked Luke Worley is in the constituency, but you can see how a local candidate could gain traction. If he was serious he'd probably be the most likely to cause an upset as a local boy against Westminster games.
But without any local intelligence from the place it's also possible that most people there think he's a knob for his reality TV activities.
If you go to the website of any GP practice (search for Randomsville doctors to get a list) and somewhere on it will be a list of doctors working there and whether they are partners or not, and often you can see if they are part-time if their availability is also shown.