What will Count Binface’s vote share in Clacton be? – politicalbetting.com
What will Count Binface’s vote share in Clacton be? – politicalbetting.com
Whilst I find Count Binface amusing and interesting I think some political punters and analysts have been out in the sun too much which explains the prices in this market from Ladbrokes.
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Personally I think he’s as funny as a vegetable that’s grown into a rude and amusing shape
Oh, wait...
I think he will save his deposit, but if he does much more than that, Farage should take that as a massive slap in the face. Anything over 10% would probably be fatal for Farage's career.
Binface is great fun but I can’t see him (them?) driving the turnout required to bin Farage, even if you tot the other shares up from the last election. Not convinced that the demographic that resides in Clacton has the same impish sense of humour that exists elsewhere.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/crl1gk55rzet
So, high 20s is a number I can agree with now, but let's have the full candidate list before finalising that one.
It was a cunning plan to try and subvert the conversation.
Clearly you found it about as funny as getting an arrow through the neck and then finding there's a gas bill tied to it.
As opposed to Farage engineering a situation where he's going to have to spend a month arguing with a bloke with a bin on his head for zero benefit?
Comedy is largely about context.
The gag doesn’t work here !!
Which is a really terrible look for the winner, having spent the summer arguing with a man with a bin on his head.
He obviously also hoped that if he held the by-election and won, it would neuter a recall petition, and even if it were successful he could campaign on 'which part of "we've just re-elected him did you not get"?'
Unfortunately for him, it appears to be backfiring already, but turnout at a record low would make everything much worse. For a start, it would call into question his ability to engage with voters who have lost trust in politics.
If someone does know, please speak up because we have bets to place.
The greatest irony of this by-election is it means he'll have to spend most of the summer there rather than lecturing in America to make money.
Farage contesting an election against a bloke dressed as a bin, funny.
Reform damaging their chances in Greater Manchester due to Farage triggering a by-election, hilarious.
But drink lots of water today.
(And yes, the converse is true for implacable opponents of Farage.)
While joke candidates very rarely indeed get a significant vote, they aren\t usually the main challenger and getting national publicity.
It's not as though every one in Clacton loves Farage; only around half of those who turned out last time voted for him.
How many of those who wouldn't vote for his this tome either will bother to vote ?
I think the odds in the header might be around the mark. It seems a coin toss - or at least enough of one for me not to be tempted by TSE's tip.
Also of note, 4 bits of anti-aircraft kit no longer stopping drones/missiles slamming into refineries....
Farage is such a narcissistic fool
Chefs kiss there !!!
Do we have any other Mayoral or other elections due, as afaics Ref UK are redirecting their Manchester Mayoral activists - 'now is the time for all good men to come the aid of their party."? What will the impact be?
It’s 86 minutes from Liverpool St to Clacton on the train.
Will activists from other parties turn up to help Binface, or will that be frowned upon?
The second funniest would be him winning with 90% on something close to normal by-election turnout.
I think the former is marginally more likely than the latter.
But he is a narcissist. I doubt that he gives much more of a stuff for ex-industrial townspeople then he does for fishermen.
Gives one hope for human nature.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjdg4y3g0z7o
IIRC they were the first to say they wouldn't stand.
Time to close down that Facebook account?
I mean,he's no more (and in some quite crucial respects, rather less) of an establishment stooge than Farage, but it's not about the truth. If truth mattered, Farage would be a fat pub bore somewhere in Esher just about to start another day as a mid-ranking and not very successful stockbroker. It's about the narrative, and one thing Farage is very good at is constructing narratives.
Farage has jumped into a swamp of his own volition, and he has not yet found a way out.
If media seriously start digging into the Man of the People (all that time spent in London clubs, and servicing people oligarchs around the world rather than his constituents). Strangely, the character with a mismatched narrative it reminds me of is perhaps Chukka Umunna - who had some coverage of his social life in clubs around self-regarding people with money in London.
Other than that, I've no idea.
For most people in Clacton to vote for Binface involves a multi stage argument, obvious to anoraks and irony fans but not to most people. These are the hurdles to Binface getting a large vote:
1) Farage is going to win so there is no point in voting in a pointless election
2) The other parties have said in effect this is a non event; voters believe it
3) Binface is an idiot, which is fine but not worth getting out of bed for
4) There is no candidate, if you oppose Farage, ordinary people actually want to see as their MP, especially Binface. Voting for an idiot to oppose an idiot is not politics
5) Most people don't do irony. This might work in Cambridge or Hampstead. A white knight may have worked in Clacton but I doubt it.
Conclusion: low turnout, big % win on small vote. Farage win. Binface 10-15%.
Which is why Burnham was a selfish idiot for making such a fuss about wanting to stand in G+D.
A low turnout is likely; if (for example) Farage backers are twice as likely to vote as Farage haters, then the 23.5% is bang on the money.
It's guesswork based on not a lot of data, though.
He can't simultaneously claim to be the anti-establishment candidate when he's up against someone with a bin on his head without looking ridiculous. Yet the narrative he chose to fight this unnecessary election on its that the establishment is out to get him on his generous gifts.
https://x.com/jalle51/status/2076287160341213508
The Sea is now almost totally empty of ships, although as with the Straight of Hormuz there might be a few out there with transponders off.
Rumours around that “that” bridge might be about to become a target, as there’s now no air defences left around it.
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/2076271000019226945
I would be delighted to be wrong. It's not a market I am entering.
I fully expect Farage to get north of 70% of the vote in this non-election; but that 23.5% is not totally unassailable.
I'd agree that the nature and unrestraint of social media are factors, but that is amongst many others.
One I think we have not picked up is that we are at a potential era-defining point - as 1945 or 1979, and that we are due an updated answer to more philosophical questions such as "What is the raison d'etre of our society?"
Farage's answer to that is not very convincing.
I find them both insufferable fuckwits
As I understand it, no joke candidate has ever saved their deposit in a Westminster Parliamentary election.
Ships of around 5000-6000 tons can reach Moscow from the Sea of Azov, via the Don, then eventually via the "Moscow Canal". And the Don carries about 25 million barrels of oil going the other way for export each year - which is small but not negligible in the scheme of things..