6 months ago Andy Burnham was just a 7.5% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister

System · 9:09AM

6 months ago Andy Burnham was just a 7.5% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister – politicalbetting.com

This is your regular remind punters are frequently wrong, the so called smart money is often wrong.

algarkirk · 9:11AM

First?

BartholomewRoberts · 9:12AM

What's worse is that many were laying Burnham on the basis that he was not an MP.

The problem is where there is a will there is a way and if hundreds of MPs wanted him to be leader, a way would be found - whether Starmer or anyone else liked it or not.

Which is precisely what has happened.

I hope those laying have avoided the poorhouse.

kle4 · 9:15AM

I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.

kle4 · 9:19AM

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.

Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)

Sandpit · 9:20AM

Of 66 entries to the annual PB prediction competition, precisely zero people suggested Andy Burnham as PM at the end of 2026. Only five people said he would become an MP this year, when asked a yes/no question.

MattW · 9:21AM

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.

On top of that he also has a significant number of Labour MPs in Greater Manchester, which covers 10 local authorities, with whom he works, plus in adjacent areas. I don't know the exact numbers without a good dig, but it's a fair number.

BartholomewRoberts · 9:21AM

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.

I think given the unpopularity of Starmer's government, he's got a fairly unique combination of being both experienced and a clean pair of hands.

Sandpit · 9:22AM

PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.

kle4 · 9:22AM

Sandpit said:
Of 66 entries to the annual PB prediction competition, precisely zero people suggested Andy Burnham as PM at the end of 2026. Only five people said he would become an MP this year, when asked a yes/no question.

Should have been higher I suppose given the locals were widely expected to be a Labour massacre, likely precipitating a contest, but I guess too much focus was put on it needing someone to stand down and Labour NEC to allow him to stand, so timing wise he might have missed his opportunity,

algarkirk · 9:22AM

The fact that the odds on a particular event were long a few months ago, and that event has now occurred is called life. What odds would you have got a few weeks ago on a Clacton byelection in which Farage was a candidate and a bin the principal opposition?

Odds on a Clacton byelection as such in the next X months would have been longish but realistic - Farage could have retired from politics at any time. But what has occurred was unthinkable.

The hand of cards I dealt yesterday was an unquantifiable number of trillions to one chance, has never happened before and will never occur again.

The obstacles Burnham faced a few months ago were substantial and real, though less than the obstacles in the way of Foinavon in the 1967 National.

kle4 · 9:23AM

BartholomewRoberts said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
I think given the unpopularity of Starmer's government, he's got a fairly unique combination of being both experienced and a clean pair of hands.

Yes, untainted by the government failings but not some rabble rousing populist unknown chancer.

algarkirk · 9:26AM

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.

Hazlitt in Frith Street is worth a look.

TheScreamingEagles · 9:26AM

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.

If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/

MattW · 9:27AM

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.

One of my current unfocused musings is that we have a severe problem in the UK in the lack of alternative routes to influential political positions, other than inside party structures. That denudes local or regional civil society.

Cameron's Open Primaries were genuinely interesting, but I'm thinking that Regional Mayors are partly where it is at now.

To me this is another thing that Kemi has called the wrong way - stating (if I heard her correctly) that greater devolution is an attack on democracy at Westminster.

LostPassword · 9:29AM

Sandpit said:
Of 66 entries to the annual PB prediction competition, precisely zero people suggested Andy Burnham as PM at the end of 2026. Only five people said he would become an MP this year, when asked a yes/no question.

It's a measure of how quickly things can change once a tipping point is passed. The difficult question is always, "how close is the tipping point?"

We may soon see this with respect to the Russian economy, or the tipping point may be some way off still. And we have a pretty good idea that there's a tipping point for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but next year, decade, century?

Sandpit · 9:29AM

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)

The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/

kle4 · 9:30AM

MattW said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
One of my current unfocused musings is that we have a severe problem in the UK in the lack of alternative routes to influential political positions, other than inside party structures. That denudes local or regional civil society.

Cameron's Open Primaries were genuinely interesting, but I'm thinking that Regional Mayors are partly where it is at now.

To me this is another thing that Kemi has called the wrong way - stating (if I heard her correctly) that greater devolution is an attack on democracy at Westminster.

Well, it is, in theory, an attack on Westminster power, but a) that is a good thing according to pretty much all party policies for ages including hers, and b) it's never really been the case anyway, since mayors like Burnham have been a development in local power, but still at quite a small level.

eek · 9:32AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/

Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.

MattW · 9:32AM

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)

We did here in Nottinghamshire !!!

It is still the best way to get a rapidly stifled giggle from a police officer.

They get joke candidates for London Mayor (£10k deposit iirc), where Binface received 24-25k votes, twice in a row. Entertainment is very expensive in London.

kle4 · 9:33AM

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/

I don't see why we want to put off silly candidates completely for a start (a token payment at least doesn't seem unreasonable to put off complete jokesters), and if we do, why it doesn't apply to all elections. Why are PCCs and mayors special? Yes, they cover larger areas than MPs, but 10x more deposit is steep.

TheScreamingEagles · 9:34AM

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.

London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.

MelonB · 9:36AM

kle4 said:

MattW said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
One of my current unfocused musings is that we have a severe problem in the UK in the lack of alternative routes to influential political positions, other than inside party structures. That denudes local or regional civil society.

Cameron's Open Primaries were genuinely interesting, but I'm thinking that Regional Mayors are partly where it is at now.

To me this is another thing that Kemi has called the wrong way - stating (if I heard her correctly) that greater devolution is an attack on democracy at Westminster.
Well, it is, in theory, an attack on Westminster power, but a) that is a good thing according to pretty much all party policies for ages including hers, and b) it's never really been the case anyway, since mayors like Burnham have been a development in local power, but still at quite a small level.

I think Matt makes a good point. One of the good things about the mayoralties is precisely the ability to build alternative, non Westminster power bases. It’s been a route to the top in many European countries for decades.

LostPassword · 9:37AM

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/

The deposit of £150 was introduced in 1918, which would be £7,581.71 in today's money. So £5,000 is not as high as it appears compared to the £500 deposit.

DecrepiterJohnL · 9:37AM

algarkirk said:
The fact that the odds on a particular event were long a few months ago, and that event has now occurred is called life. What odds would you have got a few weeks ago on a Clacton byelection in which Farage was a candidate and a bin the principal opposition?

Odds on a Clacton byelection as such in the next X months would have been longish but realistic - Farage could have retired from politics at any time. But what has occurred was unthinkable.

The hand of cards I dealt yesterday was an unquantifiable number of trillions to one chance, has never happened before and will never occur again.

The obstacles Burnham faced a few months ago were substantial and real, though less than the obstacles in the way of Foinavon in the 1967 National.

I always wonder about the cards thing – that every hand of cards is unique, or every shuffled pack of cards is unique.

Of course the number of permutations is astronomical but are we overlooking two key facts about real life? Most people don't shuffle properly and all new packs of cards start off in the same state. My guess is the number of arrangements following one or two bad shuffles of new packs is relatively small.

MattW · 9:37AM

kle4 said:

MattW said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
One of my current unfocused musings is that we have a severe problem in the UK in the lack of alternative routes to influential political positions, other than inside party structures. That denudes local or regional civil society.

Cameron's Open Primaries were genuinely interesting, but I'm thinking that Regional Mayors are partly where it is at now.

To me this is another thing that Kemi has called the wrong way - stating (if I heard her correctly) that greater devolution is an attack on democracy at Westminster.
Well, it is, in theory, an attack on Westminster power, but a) that is a good thing according to pretty much all party policies for ages including hers, and b) it's never really been the case anyway, since mayors like Burnham have been a development in local power, but still at quite a small level.

My hopes are (maybe over-) optimistically pinned on Regional Mayors, plus a transfer of control of revenue that will be miraculously difficult for a future Government to reverse quickly enough to prevent us finding out whether it succeeds.

I think we may need to add elecoral reform to that mix for there to be a decent chance of that outcome.

OldKingCole · 9:39AM

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/
I don't see why we want to put off silly candidates completely for a start (a token payment at least doesn't seem unreasonable to put off complete jokesters), and if we do, why it doesn't apply to all elections. Why are PCCs and mayors special? Yes, they cover larger areas than MPs, but 10x more deposit is steep.

The deposit in Parliamentary elections used to be higher, both in actual money and in terms of buying power. As a Liberal Party election worker in the 60's and 70's I was acutely aware of it.

And Good Morning everybody. Where's the sun gone?

Sandpit · 9:40AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.

Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!

kle4 · 9:40AM

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/
The deposit of £150 was introduced in 1918, which would be £7,581.71 in today's money. So £5,000 is not as high as it appears compared to the £500 deposit.

Interesting. So it was intended to be a greater barrier to participation, but over time has become closer to being a nominal payment only (£500 is not nothing, but much more manageable), therefore accidentally enabling a culture of joke and protest candidates.

BartholomewRoberts · 9:40AM

What's noteworthy of course is that within a decade we'll have seen two different former Mayors become PM. Both following the route of being [arguably not-especially respected] MPs who left Parliament to become Mayor, became long-term Party favourite for leadership polls, then returned to the Commons and became Prime Minister.

Would not surprise if going forward many more ambitious MPs suddenly become interested in opportunities to become Mayor.

DecrepiterJohnL · 9:41AM

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.

Boris made it from City Hall to Downing Street, and Sadiq Khan and before him Ken Livingstone nationally known. All, like Burnham, had previously been MPs though.

MattW · 9:41AM

Brains Trust:

Can anyone recommend a decent app or facility for an iPixel Google phone to take notes or outlines whilst on a perambulation?

Is Google Keep Notes up to it, or do I need something else?

kle4 · 9:42AM

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/
I don't see why we want to put off silly candidates completely for a start (a token payment at least doesn't seem unreasonable to put off complete jokesters), and if we do, why it doesn't apply to all elections. Why are PCCs and mayors special? Yes, they cover larger areas than MPs, but 10x more deposit is steep.
As a Liberal Party election worker in the 60's and 70's

What a time that must have been - did you genuinely foresee that the party would recover (not necessarily through a merger) from what looked like near extinction?

Mexicanpete · 9:42AM

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.

When I was flush, I used to stay in the Royal Lanc. (from the Italian Job) until I remembered £500 a night is £400 more than I want to pay. A half mile walk to Marble Arch alongside Hyde Park. Just checked, £600 these days.

Higher floors give a great view of London. Lower floors are a waste of time.

These days I stay at Heathrow Sofitel and take the Lizzie Line in.

OldKingCole · 9:43AM

MattW said:
Brains Trust:

Can anyone recommend a decent app or facility for an iPixel Google phone to take notes or outlines whilst on a perambulation?

Is Google Keep Notes up to it, or do I need something else?

You're not planning to have your phone in your hand while walking about, surely?

TheScreamingEagles · 9:45AM

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!

It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.

kle4 · 9:45AM

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
Boris made it from City Hall to Downing Street, and Sadiq Khan and before him Ken Livingstone nationally known. All, like Burnham, had previously been MPs though.

Boris did use it as a launchpad, though I think London would always have been a special care given its size and significance. Livingstone I don't know if he ever contemplated being more than an outsider, and Khan doesn't seem to have any ambitions to national government anymore, or I think he'd not have stood last time. Third term feels like giving up on that.

Stuartinromford · 9:45AM

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.

About half of them are 2024 newbies, so perhaps not that surprising.

In a way it feeds back into why Starmer was considered the right person to be Labour leader in 2020. Bluntly, there weren't any other realistic candidates. Long-Bailey was continuity Corbyn and Nandy wasn't really up to it either. It's much the same logic that has left the Conservatives stuck with Badenoch. The turnover of MPs in the 2010s has really constrained parties looking for ministers and Prime Ministers in the 2020s.

Mortimer · 9:46AM

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!

I stay in London 'otels a few times a month - prices are incredibly variable at present, but anything decent in the summer is £300+ per night now - and flagship places regularly £700+.

Actually stay in the Malmaison that TSE mentioned almost monthly and can strongly recommend - especially if you upgrade to a better room. Cracking Italian nearby called Brutto, plus St. John, and Bouchon Racine, a few yard further away, has just been voted the best resto in Britain IIRC

Farringdon is a great location now thanks to the Lizzy line. It is my place of choice for trips that start or end at Gatwick or Heathrow.

MattW · 9:48AM

MelonB said:

kle4 said:

MattW said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
One of my current unfocused musings is that we have a severe problem in the UK in the lack of alternative routes to influential political positions, other than inside party structures. That denudes local or regional civil society.

Cameron's Open Primaries were genuinely interesting, but I'm thinking that Regional Mayors are partly where it is at now.

To me this is another thing that Kemi has called the wrong way - stating (if I heard her correctly) that greater devolution is an attack on democracy at Westminster.
Well, it is, in theory, an attack on Westminster power, but a) that is a good thing according to pretty much all party policies for ages including hers, and b) it's never really been the case anyway, since mayors like Burnham have been a development in local power, but still at quite a small level.
I think Matt makes a good point. One of the good things about the mayoralties is precisely the ability to build alternative, non Westminster power bases. It’s been a route to the top in many European countries for decades.

I would expect traditional Conservatives to embrace Mayors and strong Regions, since this was such a Victorian structure, with the prosperous regional cites - Brum, Leeds, Manchester, Glasgow and the rest.

Is there potential for a new more-localist "Conservative Economics" emphasis to supplement neoliberalism in a world resiling from globalism?

(I know that's a vague question with lots of arms, but I'm musing. Once Reform have gone pop, we need a new spot for some sort of party of some sort of rather less reactionary version of the right.)

LostPassword · 9:50AM

DecrepiterJohnL said:

algarkirk said:
The fact that the odds on a particular event were long a few months ago, and that event has now occurred is called life. What odds would you have got a few weeks ago on a Clacton byelection in which Farage was a candidate and a bin the principal opposition?

Odds on a Clacton byelection as such in the next X months would have been longish but realistic - Farage could have retired from politics at any time. But what has occurred was unthinkable.

The hand of cards I dealt yesterday was an unquantifiable number of trillions to one chance, has never happened before and will never occur again.

The obstacles Burnham faced a few months ago were substantial and real, though less than the obstacles in the way of Foinavon in the 1967 National.
I always wonder about the cards thing – that every hand of cards is unique, or every shuffled pack of cards is unique.

Of course the number of permutations is astronomical but are we overlooking two key facts about real life? Most people don't shuffle properly and all new packs of cards start off in the same state. My guess is the number of arrangements following one or two bad shuffles of new packs is relatively small.

Let's say that a bad shuffle divides the deck into three sections, reversing the order of those sections. The first division is somewhere in the first half of the deck (maybe around 20 different positions) and the second division is somewhere in the second half of the deck. That would give you ~400 different states after one bad shuffle.

It's not many, but I'd still be impressed if you managed to repeat the same shuffle in consecutive shuffles (having reset the deck).

Dura_Ace · 9:50AM

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!

We stay at Langham's if we're in London because it's close to Mrs DA's fav restaurant. That's about 500 quid on a weekend and is in a great location.

Obviously, I'm in The Rag if I'm on my own.

DecrepiterJohnL · 9:51AM

kle4 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
Boris made it from City Hall to Downing Street, and Sadiq Khan and before him Ken Livingstone nationally known. All, like Burnham, had previously been MPs though.
Boris did use it as a launchpad, though I think London would always have been a special care given its size and significance. Livingstone I don't know if he ever contemplated being more than an outsider, and Khan doesn't seem to have any ambitions to national government anymore, or I think he'd not have stood last time. Third term feels like giving up on that.

Yes. I think also a lot more national politicians doubt that Number 10 is worth the candle. Two years of abuse in return for a country house and air miles but no real power. Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner are said to have stood back on those grounds, maybe Jeremy Hunt too on the other side. Sadiq Khan has achieved more in London than many recent ministers or even prime ministers. Andy Burnham might soon be able to tell us how he finds the contrast.

Gallowgate · 9:52AM

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
We stay at Langham's if we're in London because it's close to Mrs DA's fav restaurant. That's about 500 quid on a weekend and is in a great location.

Obviously, I'm in The Rag if I'm on my own.

And there’s me choking on my cornflakes when Premier Inn want £250 per night

StillWaters · 9:52AM

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.

Hyatt Regency Churchill in Portman Square (Marble Arch) is around £450

Northern_Al · 9:52AM

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.

You could just stay one night, and use the remaining £500 as your deposit to take on Count Binface in Clacton.

Stuartinromford · 9:53AM

BartholomewRoberts said:
What's noteworthy of course is that within a decade we'll have seen two different former Mayors become PM. Both following the route of being [arguably not-especially respected] MPs who left Parliament to become Mayor, became long-term Party favourite for leadership polls, then returned to the Commons and became Prime Minister.

Would not surprise if going forward many more ambitious MPs suddenly become interested in opportunities to become Mayor.

Have to say, I think that would be unfortunate. Partly because local government ought to be about more than tarnished national figures working their passage back to the only place that really matters.

But also- as currently set up, metro Mayor is easy politics. It's all about spending, and nagging central government to give you more money to spend. There are very few tradeoffs involved- I think we should have X, it will be worth increasing taxes by Y to fund it. Or I want to reduce taxes by P and so the local authority isn't going to provide Q any more. It's far too easy to be popuar in that scenario.

MattW · 9:54AM

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
Boris made it from City Hall to Downing Street, and Sadiq Khan and before him Ken Livingstone nationally known. All, like Burnham, had previously been MPs though.

Good observation. I'm of the view that one thing Burnham could perhaps create is regional clusters such that Civil Service careers from more or less bottom to top become possible in a Region, rather than London being the brains and other places being the limbs.

That implies a degree of specialism by adjacent departmental functions, within for example Liverpool-Manchester, or Leeds-Bradford-York , or around here Nottingham-Derby-Leicester.

And that puts an emphasis back on transport.

Sandpit · 9:55AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.

Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).

LostPassword · 9:55AM

kle4 said:

LostPassword said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/
The deposit of £150 was introduced in 1918, which would be £7,581.71 in today's money. So £5,000 is not as high as it appears compared to the £500 deposit.
Interesting. So it was intended to be a greater barrier to participation, but over time has become closer to being a nominal payment only (£500 is not nothing, but much more manageable), therefore accidentally enabling a culture of joke and protest candidates.

It feels like it could be quite controversial to increase the deposit, as you're explicitly making it harder for people to stand as candidates, which looks like politicians trying to protect their position against outsiders.

The increase from £150 to £500 was combined with reducing the threshold for saving the deposit from 12.5% to 5%, which probably helped to make the increase more acceptable.

DecrepiterJohnL · 9:55AM

Is Nigel Farage definitely standing in Clacton btw? I know he has already left parliament but he's led parties from outside the Commons before.

MattW · 9:56AM

Stuartinromford said:

BartholomewRoberts said:
What's noteworthy of course is that within a decade we'll have seen two different former Mayors become PM. Both following the route of being [arguably not-especially respected] MPs who left Parliament to become Mayor, became long-term Party favourite for leadership polls, then returned to the Commons and became Prime Minister.

Would not surprise if going forward many more ambitious MPs suddenly become interested in opportunities to become Mayor.
Have to say, I think that would be unfortunate. Partly because local government ought to be about more than tarnished national figures working their passage back to the only place that really matters.

But also- as currently set up, metro Mayor is easy politics. It's all about spending, and nagging central government to give you more money to spend. There are very few tradeoffs involved- I think we should have X, it will be worth increasing taxes by Y to fund it. Or I want to reduce taxes by P and so the local authority isn't going to provide Q any more. It's far too easy to be popuar in that scenario.

That comes back to more revenue being needed to be raised locally.

DecrepiterJohnL · 9:59AM

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.
Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).

Careful. You'll be writing about Victorian glassware and noom if you repeat too many of Leon's talking points such as comparatively cheap hotels abroad.

TheScreamingEagles · 10:00AM

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.
Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).

To be honest, if you really want to treat her, perhaps go for a luxury hotel outside of London.

Pound for pound those places are much better.

One of the reasons I really don't like The Ritz is that the gentlemen are required to wear suits and ties in the public areas at all time, no exceptions.

Claridge's don't have such a ludicrous dress policy.

Which is why it is also useful to check such policies.

Foss · 10:00AM

MattW said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
Boris made it from City Hall to Downing Street, and Sadiq Khan and before him Ken Livingstone nationally known. All, like Burnham, had previously been MPs though.
Good observation. I'm of the view that one thing Burnham could perhaps create is regional clusters such that Civil Service careers from more or less bottom to top become possible in a Region, rather than London being the brains and other places being the limbs.

That implies a degree of specialism by adjacent departmental functions, within for example Liverpool-Manchester, or Leeds-Bradford-York , or around here Nottingham-Derby-Leicester.

And that puts an emphasis back on transport.

It puts the emphasis back on remote working.

HYUFD · 10:00AM

As soon as the NEC allowed Burnham to be the Labour candidate in a Labour held seat that was when it all changed. Burnham had to then win it of course but once he did win the Makerfield by election then he was very likely to replace Starmer as PM

NickPalmer · 10:00AM

BartholomewRoberts said:
What's noteworthy of course is that within a decade we'll have seen two different former Mayors become PM. Both following the route of being [arguably not-especially respected] MPs who left Parliament to become Mayor, became long-term Party favourite for leadership polls, then returned to the Commons and became Prime Minister.

Would not surprise if going forward many more ambitious MPs suddenly become interested in opportunities to become Mayor.

As an MP you have zero responsibility for implementing anything, and as a Minister you have limited scope for implementing anything in a narrow area. As Mayor you have unquestioned responsibility for most things affecting the city. It's probably closer to being PM than a backbench MP, and roughly equal to a mid-ranking Minister.

DecrepiterJohnL · 10:00AM

Stuartinromford said:

BartholomewRoberts said:
What's noteworthy of course is that within a decade we'll have seen two different former Mayors become PM. Both following the route of being [arguably not-especially respected] MPs who left Parliament to become Mayor, became long-term Party favourite for leadership polls, then returned to the Commons and became Prime Minister.

Would not surprise if going forward many more ambitious MPs suddenly become interested in opportunities to become Mayor.
Have to say, I think that would be unfortunate. Partly because local government ought to be about more than tarnished national figures working their passage back to the only place that really matters.

But also- as currently set up, metro Mayor is easy politics. It's all about spending, and nagging central government to give you more money to spend. There are very few tradeoffs involved- I think we should have X, it will be worth increasing taxes by Y to fund it. Or I want to reduce taxes by P and so the local authority isn't going to provide Q any more. It's far too easy to be popuar in that scenario.

Yes, George Osborne has made the point that what Andy Burnham did was spend money dished out by George Osborne.

eek · 10:01AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.
Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).
To be honest, if you really want to treat her, perhaps go for a hotel outside of London.

Pound for pound those places are much better.

One of the reasons I really don't like The Ritz is that the gentlemen are required to wear suits and ties in the public areas at all time, no exceptions.

Claridge's don't have such a ludicrous dress policy.

Which is why it is also useful to check such policies.

+1 - the Grand in York is great provided you aren't trying to get Breakfast at 9:30 on a Sunday morning (lost a lot of points there).

Head to the lakes or towards Bath and there are plenty of great options that your budget will cover.

The weird thing is sometimes the chain curiosities hotels are great. Hotel Indigo in Durham is definitely not like other hotels in that chain (it was the old headquarters of Durham County Council until 1968 so the dining hall is the old council chamber)

OldKingCole · 10:02AM

kle4 said:

OldKingCole said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/
I don't see why we want to put off silly candidates completely for a start (a token payment at least doesn't seem unreasonable to put off complete jokesters), and if we do, why it doesn't apply to all elections. Why are PCCs and mayors special? Yes, they cover larger areas than MPs, but 10x more deposit is steep.
As a Liberal Party election worker in the 60's and 70's
What a time that must have been - did you genuinely foresee that the party would recover (not necessarily through a merger) from what looked like near extinction?

I didn't get involved until after the '64 election and then only marginally. By '66 we'd begun to think something might happen, but 1970 crushed that. 1974 was when one could, IMHO anyway, think positively.
In the mid eighties life was throwing a few curved balls at me and I dropped out of active politics, and, while I've recovered an interest I've not had the same involvement.

LostPassword · 10:03AM

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Is Nigel Farage definitely standing in Clacton btw? I know he has already left parliament but he's led parties from outside the Commons before.

Nominations don't close until Friday at 4pm, so we can't know for sure.

Imagine if Reform cock-up their nomination papers and there isn't a Reform candidate either?

Sandpit · 10:04AM

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.
Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).
Careful. You'll be writing about Victorian glassware and noom if you repeat too many of Leon's talking points such as comparatively cheap hotels abroad.

Haha. In my mind the two cities are around the same price, but I guess the difference is that there’s many more hotels here now, than there were 20 years ago. Meanwhile there’s almost the same number of keys in London now as then. Hence London hotel prices having experienced significant inflation, and Dubai hotels remained around the same price in money terms.

TheScreamingEagles · 10:04AM

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.
Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).
To be honest, if you really want to treat her, perhaps go for a hotel outside of London.

Pound for pound those places are much better.

One of the reasons I really don't like The Ritz is that the gentlemen are required to wear suits and ties in the public areas at all time, no exceptions.

Claridge's don't have such a ludicrous dress policy.

Which is why it is also useful to check such policies.
+1 - the Grand in York is great provided you aren't trying to get Breakfast at 9:30 on a Sunday morning (lost a lot of points there).

Head to the lakes or towards Bath and there are plenty of great options that your budget will cover.

Absolutely love the Grand in York.

Plus, a 2 min walk from the railway station which puts you 2 hours away from London and 2 and a bit hours from Edinburgh.

OldKingCole · 10:06AM

LostPassword said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Is Nigel Farage definitely standing in Clacton btw? I know he has already left parliament but he's led parties from outside the Commons before.
Nominations don't close until Friday at 4pm, so we can't know for sure.

Imagine if Reform cock-up their nomination papers and there isn't a Reform candidate either?

All it wants is one signatory who doesn't live in the constituency .........

fitalass · 10:08AM

And this is why I love British politics, absolutely brilliant video and still laughing!

X
Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker
Very cool, entertaining and with high production values: if I were @Nigel_Farage, I’d consider dipping into that £5 million to try to get out a video that can compare to it.
https://x.com/ThatTimWalker/status/2075868244330656041

carnforth · 10:17AM

fitalass said:
And this is why I love British politics, absolutely brilliant video and still laughing!

X
Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker
Very cool, entertaining and with high production values: if I were @Nigel_Farage, I’d consider dipping into that £5 million to try to get out a video that can compare to it.
https://x.com/ThatTimWalker/status/2075868244330656041

X doesn't show the video without logging in, but the frame shown of the ice cream van is clearly AI-generated. So I'm not sure high production values is right...

Sandpit · 10:20AM

carnforth said:

fitalass said:
And this is why I love British politics, absolutely brilliant video and still laughing!

X
Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker
Very cool, entertaining and with high production values: if I were @Nigel_Farage, I’d consider dipping into that £5 million to try to get out a video that can compare to it.
https://x.com/ThatTimWalker/status/2075868244330656041
X doesn't show the video without logging in, but the frame shown of the ice cream van is clearly AI-generated. So I'm not sure high production values is right...

It is mostly AI, and done quickly. Still rather funny though.

carnforth · 10:21AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.
Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).
To be honest, if you really want to treat her, perhaps go for a hotel outside of London.

Pound for pound those places are much better.

One of the reasons I really don't like The Ritz is that the gentlemen are required to wear suits and ties in the public areas at all time, no exceptions.

Claridge's don't have such a ludicrous dress policy.

Which is why it is also useful to check such policies.
+1 - the Grand in York is great provided you aren't trying to get Breakfast at 9:30 on a Sunday morning (lost a lot of points there).

Head to the lakes or towards Bath and there are plenty of great options that your budget will cover.
Absolutely love the Grand in York.

Plus, a 2 min walk from the railway station which puts you 2 hours away from London and 2 and a bit hours from Edinburgh.

If you fancy the cotswolds, this place has just reopened after a massive renovation, and is probably cheap for its quality at the moment:

https://www.dumbletonhall.co.uk/

I've walked the grounds, but have yet to step inside...

kinabalu · 10:22AM

On topic: in political punting (absent a data edge) there's often 2 ways to assess the chances of X happening.

The bottoms up micro analytical way. What you do here is work out the chain of events that must occur to get to X. You then assess a probability for each and from that you get what (iyo) are the fair value odds for X. Back, lay or no bet accordingly.

The macro big picture way. This is more intuitive. You get up and above the detail, almost forget it really, and try and tune into the essence of a situation. What is driving it? Where do those forces point to as a resolution and end state? Is that outcome being mispriced?

Both these techniques are money makers if done well. They can also be complimentary or in conflict. With this one - Burnham PM from long range - they were in conflict and the 2nd technique was the one to go with. The 1st would likely have led to some expensive lays.

No_Offence_Alan · 10:22AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.

How the other half (1%) live, my idea of luxury is a Hampton by Hilton.

MattW · 10:24AM

NickPalmer said:

BartholomewRoberts said:
What's noteworthy of course is that within a decade we'll have seen two different former Mayors become PM. Both following the route of being [arguably not-especially respected] MPs who left Parliament to become Mayor, became long-term Party favourite for leadership polls, then returned to the Commons and became Prime Minister.

Would not surprise if going forward many more ambitious MPs suddenly become interested in opportunities to become Mayor.
As an MP you have zero responsibility for implementing anything, and as a Minister you have limited scope for implementing anything in a narrow area. As Mayor you have unquestioned responsibility for most things affecting the city. It's probably closer to being PM than a backbench MP, and roughly equal to a mid-ranking Minister.

So also a way to upskill or backbench MPs !!

What's not to like?

BartholomewRoberts · 10:26AM

kinabalu said:
On topic: in political punting (absent a data edge) there's often 2 ways to assess the chances of X happening.

The bottoms up micro analytical way. What you do here is work out the chain of events that must occur to get to X. You then assess a probability for each and from that you get what (iyo) are the fair value odds for X. Back, lay or no bet accordingly.

The macro big picture way. This is more intuitive. You get up and above the detail, almost forget it really, and try and tune into the essence of a situation. What is driving it? Where do those forces point to as a resolution and end state? Is that outcome being mispriced?

Both these techniques are money makers if done well. They can also be complimentary or in conflict. With this one - Burnham PM from long range - they were in conflict and the 2nd technique was the one to go with. The 1st would likely have led to some expensive lays.

The problem with the first is not mathematical but assumptions.

Do you assume each thing that must happen is independent, so assign independent odds and check by multiplying them?

Or do you realise some events correlate with each other and if conditions arise for one to occur then the others can equally become more likely too?

Gallowgate · 10:28AM

MattW said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
Boris made it from City Hall to Downing Street, and Sadiq Khan and before him Ken Livingstone nationally known. All, like Burnham, had previously been MPs though.
Good observation. I'm of the view that one thing Burnham could perhaps create is regional clusters such that Civil Service careers from more or less bottom to top become possible in a Region, rather than London being the brains and other places being the limbs.

That implies a degree of specialism by adjacent departmental functions, within for example Liverpool-Manchester, or Leeds-Bradford-York , or around here Nottingham-Derby-Leicester.

And that puts an emphasis back on transport.

I mean it’s not difficult. I work out of my firm’s Newcastle office but my team is spread across all the major cities in the UK.

kinabalu · 10:31AM

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:
On topic: in political punting (absent a data edge) there's often 2 ways to assess the chances of X happening.

The bottoms up micro analytical way. What you do here is work out the chain of events that must occur to get to X. You then assess a probability for each and from that you get what (iyo) are the fair value odds for X. Back, lay or no bet accordingly.

The macro big picture way. This is more intuitive. You get up and above the detail, almost forget it really, and try and tune into the essence of a situation. What is driving it? Where do those forces point to as a resolution and end state? Is that outcome being mispriced?

Both these techniques are money makers if done well. They can also be complimentary or in conflict. With this one - Burnham PM from long range - they were in conflict and the 2nd technique was the one to go with. The 1st would likely have led to some expensive lays.
The problem with the first is not mathematical but assumptions.

Do you assume each thing that must happen is independent, so assign independent odds and check by multiplying them?

Or do you realise some events correlate with each other and if conditions arise for one to occur then the others can equally become more likely too?

Yes that's key. The 'maths' is easy, it's all about defining the event chain, the probabilities for each and - as you say - the dependencies and cross correlations in there.

MattW · 10:32AM

fitalass said:
And this is why I love British politics, absolutely brilliant video and still laughing!

X
Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker
Very cool, entertaining and with high production values: if I were @Nigel_Farage, I’d consider dipping into that £5 million to try to get out a video that can compare to it.
https://x.com/ThatTimWalker/status/2075868244330656041

That's interesting. I'm blocked by That Tim Walker. Who is he?

carnforth · 10:34AM

MattW said:

fitalass said:
And this is why I love British politics, absolutely brilliant video and still laughing!

X
Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker
Very cool, entertaining and with high production values: if I were @Nigel_Farage, I’d consider dipping into that £5 million to try to get out a video that can compare to it.
https://x.com/ThatTimWalker/status/2075868244330656041
That's interesting. I'm blocked by That Tim Walker. Who is he?

Was a big remainer, prominent on twitter after the referendum.

https://www.andrewlownie.co.uk/authors/tim-walker

AnneJGP · 10:34AM

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)

Thank you, that explains why I thought the deposit for standing as an MP candidate was £5000.

eek · 10:35AM

No_Offence_Alan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
How the other half (1%) live, my idea of luxury is a Hampton by Hilton.

An awful lot of the time I will just stay in a Premier Inn but often they are so expensive in London that going posher makes sense (see last week and next week).

AnneJGP · 10:36AM

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.

I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.

MattW · 10:37AM

carnforth said:

MattW said:

fitalass said:
And this is why I love British politics, absolutely brilliant video and still laughing!

X
Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker
Very cool, entertaining and with high production values: if I were @Nigel_Farage, I’d consider dipping into that £5 million to try to get out a video that can compare to it.
https://x.com/ThatTimWalker/status/2075868244330656041
That's interesting. I'm blocked by That Tim Walker. Who is he?
Was a big remainer, prominent on twitter after the referendum.

https://www.andrewlownie.co.uk/authors/tim-walker

I've only interacted with him ONCE, and that was back in 2020, being slightly media-skeptical.

https://x.com/search?q=to:ThatTimWalker from:mattwardman&src=typed_query&f=top

Nigelb · 10:39AM

MattW said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
One of my current unfocused musings is that we have a severe problem in the UK in the lack of alternative routes to influential political positions, other than inside party structures. That denudes local or regional civil society.

Cameron's Open Primaries were genuinely interesting, but I'm thinking that Regional Mayors are partly where it is at now.

To me this is another thing that Kemi has called the wrong way - stating (if I heard her correctly) that greater devolution is an attack on democracy at Westminster.

Yes, that's among the more stupid things she has said.
England in particular is in desperate need of more devolution of power. We are an absurdly over-centralised state.

MattW · 10:39AM

AnneJGP said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.

London hotels are not my game, but are these not the price ranges for St Pancras?

(Which is different but not classically "luxurious".)

SandyRentool · 10:42AM

Gallowgate said:

MattW said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
Boris made it from City Hall to Downing Street, and Sadiq Khan and before him Ken Livingstone nationally known. All, like Burnham, had previously been MPs though.
Good observation. I'm of the view that one thing Burnham could perhaps create is regional clusters such that Civil Service careers from more or less bottom to top become possible in a Region, rather than London being the brains and other places being the limbs.

That implies a degree of specialism by adjacent departmental functions, within for example Liverpool-Manchester, or Leeds-Bradford-York , or around here Nottingham-Derby-Leicester.

And that puts an emphasis back on transport.
I mean it’s not difficult. I work out of my firm’s Newcastle office but my team is spread across all the major cities in the UK.

We are the same. Our immediate team of 6 is split across 4 offices plus one home based. Our wider team across at least 10 offices. We can recruit people from across the country and accommodate staff relocation for personal reasons, partner's job, etc. And during Covid it was more business as usual for us than for those from a culture of everyone sitting in the same space every day.

bondegezou · 10:42AM

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.

Many of the 400 are first-termers, who are unlikely to be seen as viable for the role.

Sandpit · 10:43AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
Claridge’s wanted £900 for a basic room, 35sqm. £1,250 for a balcony room.

In my mind the fanciest London hotels were in the £500 range, it’s obviously been a long time since I checked them out! Thinking back, it’s probably about 20 years!
It's causing me grief.

Back in 2023 I took my then girlfriend for a 4 night stay at Claridge's.

Current girlfriend wants the same experience but the prices are shocking, I'd be paying nearly double 3 years later.

As one of my colleagues put it, the cost must be really bad if even I baulking at the costs.
Last time I stayed in London with the missus, we were counting the pennies and stayed at a crappy Ibis next to CIty Airport and a B&B on Edgeware Rd.

This time I thought I’d push the boat out and surprise her with a stay in a fancy place, as a thank-you to her for spending the previous week with my family, but after spending the morning researching the signature hotels they’re all miles over budget.

I’ve realised that Dubai hotels are great value, there’s almost nothing above £600-700 for a king room, and the Burj-al-Arab is £1,000 for a suite (but closed for refurb at the moment).
To be honest, if you really want to treat her, perhaps go for a luxury hotel outside of London.

Pound for pound those places are much better.

One of the reasons I really don't like The Ritz is that the gentlemen are required to wear suits and ties in the public areas at all time, no exceptions.

Claridge's don't have such a ludicrous dress policy.

Which is why it is also useful to check such policies.

What we are actually doing is a bit of a trip. The family thing is near Birmingham, so we’re going to spend the week wandering towards London (Leamington Spa, Stratford, Oxford, Slough etc), then finish off with a couple of days in Town before heading to Gatwick. She wants to go to the theatre and do some sightseeing.

Thanks everyone for the hotel suggestions, a good day for the PB brain trust. 👍

TheScreamingEagles · 10:46AM

AnneJGP said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.

I am staying in a £248 a night room tomorrow.

The Queens in Leeds.

MattW · 10:46AM

I'm off for some fun in the sun, but I'll leave an interesting trivia question:

Which was the US President (I think there is only one) who did not have English as first language?

(This has been on social media today, but I'll be very impressed with anyone who gets it right without a search - I was nowhere.)

SandyRentool · 10:46AM

eek said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.
How the other half (1%) live, my idea of luxury is a Hampton by Hilton.
An awful lot of the time I will just stay in a Premier Inn but often they are so expensive in London that going posher makes sense (see last week and next week).

Stay a bit further out and get better for less. A Zone 3 Doubletree for less than a Zone 1 Travelodge, for example. Plus you get a warm cookie.

bondegezou · 10:46AM

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

AnneJGP said:

LostPassword said:

bondegezou said:
https://x.com/jim_blagden/status/2075523376370618629

The received wisdom would suggest they're going to need to extend the y-axis on that graph for Clacton. And it shows that even saving their deposit would be an exceptional result for Binface.
I've often thought it must be an expensive hobby for these 'joke' candidates.
Not my idea of a good time, especially if someone else doesn't stump up the £500 deposit.

I bet we don't see joke candidates for PCC, where the deposit is £5k - which seems inexplicably high and I cannot think of a good reason for it.

Though remove the deposit and you get Canada where you've had by-elections with 80 candidates (as part of protests against FPTP)
The Mayor of Greater Manchester by-election is also £5,000.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/notice-of-election-2026/

That seems high enough to put off the silly candidates. There’s seven people standing, only one of whom is independent.

https://www.gmelects.org.uk/elections/official-notices/statement-as-to-persons-nominated-2026/

The last London mayoral election still managed to attract 13 candidates, 8 of whom got less than 2%.

fitalass · 10:48AM

carnforth said:

fitalass said:
And this is why I love British politics, absolutely brilliant video and still laughing!

X
Tim Walker@ThatTimWalker
Very cool, entertaining and with high production values: if I were @Nigel_Farage, I’d consider dipping into that £5 million to try to get out a video that can compare to it.
https://x.com/ThatTimWalker/status/2075868244330656041
X doesn't show the video without logging in, but the frame shown of the ice cream van is clearly AI-generated. So I'm not sure high production values is right...

Its not about the high production values, its all about the fact someone has put together a really funny and catchy music video supporting Count Binface while mocking Nigel Farage that totally encapsulates our British sense of humour and our tradition of novelty election candidates in by-elections. I don't know who has produced this, but its absolutely brilliant done and they should take a bow.

Theuniondivvie · 10:48AM

MattW said:
I'm off for some fun in the sun, but I'll leave an interesting trivia question:

Which was the US President (I think there is only one) who did not have English as first language?

(This has been on social media today, but I'll be very impressed with anyone who gets it right without a search - I was nowhere.)

Just on the basis of his Netherlandish name, Van Buren?

MustaphaMondeo · 10:49AM

Nigelb said:

MattW said:

kle4 said:
I didn't think he'd manage it. I guess mayors are no longer a joke now, a place for has beens and never will bes.

Or was the fact he was an MP previously and still known to many of them enough to make being a mayor still viable as a leadership prospect?

It is kind of weird that not a single MP out of 400 was considered a genuine option.
One of my current unfocused musings is that we have a severe problem in the UK in the lack of alternative routes to influential political positions, other than inside party structures. That denudes local or regional civil society.

Cameron's Open Primaries were genuinely interesting, but I'm thinking that Regional Mayors are partly where it is at now.

To me this is another thing that Kemi has called the wrong way - stating (if I heard her correctly) that greater devolution is an attack on democracy at Westminster.
Yes, that's among the more stupid things she has said.
England in particular is in desperate need of more devolution of power. We are an absurdly over-centralised state.

I want the Heptarchy back.
Devolve towards that please, ptb.

eek · 10:49AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

AnneJGP said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.
I am staying in a £248 a night room tomorrow.

The Queens in Leeds.

That website needs a far larger Book Now button...

SandyRentool · 10:49AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

AnneJGP said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.
I am staying in a £248 a night room tomorrow.

The Queens in Leeds.

Handy for the Greggs on the station. Good choice.

Nigelb · 10:49AM

kinabalu said:
On topic: in political punting (absent a data edge) there's often 2 ways to assess the chances of X happening.

The bottoms up micro analytical way. What you do here is work out the chain of events that must occur to get to X. You then assess a probability for each and from that you get what (iyo) are the fair value odds for X. Back, lay or no bet accordingly.

The macro big picture way. This is more intuitive. You get up and above the detail, almost forget it really, and try and tune into the essence of a situation. What is driving it? Where do those forces point to as a resolution and end state? Is that outcome being mispriced?

Both these techniques are money makers if done well. They can also be complimentary or in conflict. With this one - Burnham PM from long range - they were in conflict and the 2nd technique was the one to go with. The 1st would likely have led to some expensive lays.

The unexpected/unprecedented outcome (from the perspective of the year or so before it became obvious in retrospect) - Obama; Trump; Burnham; ...Binface ? - is surprisingly common in electoral politics.

kinabalu · 10:50AM

MattW said:
I'm off for some fun in the sun, but I'll leave an interesting trivia question:

Which was the US President (I think there is only one) who did not have English as first language?

(This has been on social media today, but I'll be very impressed with anyone who gets it right without a search - I was nowhere.)

You'd say Donald Trump, listening to him sometimes.

TheScreamingEagles · 10:51AM

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AnneJGP said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.
I am staying in a £248 a night room tomorrow.

The Queens in Leeds.
Handy for the Greggs on the station. Good choice.

Handy for The Wetherspoons too.

JohnLilburne · 10:53AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AnneJGP said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.
I am staying in a £248 a night room tomorrow.

The Queens in Leeds.
Handy for the Greggs on the station. Good choice.
Handy for The Wetherspoons too.

I would have thought for £248 you would get breakfast and not have to go to Wetherspoons

bondegezou · 10:53AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
If you don't mind looking at the Barbican en route then I recommend The Malmaison near the Barbican.

I've stayed there a few times, recommend it.

https://www.malmaison.com/locations/london/
Was at the Clermont last week - was OK nothing great.

Next weekend I'm staying at the Great Northern (which is the one on Kings Cross) so will report back - but we are very fairly often for drinks so the bar is very acceptable.
London hotel prices have gone up so much recently.

The cost of living crisis is real.

Early on this week I nearly fainted when I found out 30g of Beluga caviar is now £400 in Claridge's (plus service charge).

I paid £250 in 2023.

My Mum was a GP and the Soviet (later Russian) Trade Delegation was in her catchment area, so she had all these diplomatic/KGB patients. They gave her presents (because that’s what you did in the Soviet Union, give presents to your doctor). This used to be vodka, but then Gorbachev wanted to crack down on alcoholism, so the diplomats were instructed not to give vodka as gifts any more. So then we got caviar.

Lots of caviar.

Us kids wouldn’t touch the stuff and there was only so much her and her sister could get through. We started offering it to the cat, but she’d only eat the most expensive variety (the malossol).

Sandpit · 10:53AM

MattW said:

AnneJGP said:

Sandpit said:
PB brains trust question, perhaps one for Mr Eagles.

I’m looking for a nice hotel in central London for a couple of nights in September, budget around £500 a night B&B.

Was shocked to find that the Savoy is £1,200 and the Ritz £1,600 for a standard king room. In my old mind I thought I might have looked at those.
I'm shocked at the thought Mr Eagles would know about £500 pn hovels.
London hotels are not my game, but are these not the price ranges for St Pancras?

(Which is different but not classically "luxurious".)

Yes, that’s on the short list. Rooms £350-400.

Not 100% sure about the constant sirens going down Euston Rd, that was my only negative thought.

Driver · 10:54AM

MattW said:
I'm off for some fun in the sun, but I'll leave an interesting trivia question:

Which was the US President (I think there is only one) who did not have English as first language?

(This has been on social media today, but I'll be very impressed with anyone who gets it right without a search - I was nowhere.)

Van Buren?

6 months ago Andy Burnham was just a 7.5% chance of becoming the next Prime Minister

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