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Can Farage win as the anti-establishment candidate when his only opponent is a man with a dustbin on

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,576
    Foxy said:

    First, like Binface

    Shades of 'easy SNP hold'.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,664
    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    What's the path to that, though? After years of his controlling the media, how do you persuade the Russian people that Putin is actually a bad man and accept an anti-Putin as the new leader?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,478
    Let's say Farage does badly in the campaign, more stories come out. Then what? Maybe Binface can win, Boaty McBoatface style. But what if the only other serious candidate wins? Could Clacton end up with a more right-wing MP in Fox?

    Then what? Does Reclaim get a surge of interest and the hard right vote is further split between Reform, Restore and Reclaim? Could Fox buddy up with Rupert Lowe?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,743
    "The head of one of Europe’s largest airports has blamed the design of the new border check system for long delays and supported calls to turn it off indefinitely until problems are fixed.

    Marco Troncone, chief executive of Aeroporti di Roma, which operates Rome Fiumicino airport, said processing times at the border had doubled since the system was fully rolled out in April.

    “We managed to optimise the process on our end bringing this to 90 seconds [down from two minutes] but it is still too high. This is of course not compatible with 50,000-60,000 passengers every day,” Troncone said.

    Rome Fiumicino has spent €12 million (£10 million) preparing for the new entry/exit system (EES) but it was still creating long queues, he added. “The problem is related to the way this process has been designed. It’s not a matter of implementation.”"

    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/transport/article/airport-queues-ees-passport-cdpd8mp7n
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 92,199
    edited 9:08AM
    Donald Trump has declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran.

    The US president told reporters he didn’t “want to deal with them any more” after launching overnight strikes on Tehran.

    In an angry address at the Nato summit in Ankara, Mr Trump told reporters: “These are evil, sick people,” and described them as scum and a cancer that needs to be cut out.

    Asked specifically about the peace deal, Mr Trump said: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them any more.”
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,478
    MattW said:

    The Ref UK line is clear:

    Agent Anderson:
    Lee Anderson MP

    @LeeAndersonMP_
    So despite all the parties wanting to get rid of @Nigel_Farage not one of them have said they will stand against him yet.

    Absolute cowards.

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/2074544497598386208

    Tice:
    Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧

    @TiceRichard 14h
    The main parties are running scared

    They claim they want Standards Inquiry to lead to by election

    So we trigger by election

    Now they all bottle it

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/2074548538000769432

    (Tice is sending out a firehose of responses to reporters.)

    I think that's going to work with some voters.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336

    Donald Trump has declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran.

    The US president told reporters he didn’t “want to deal with them any more” after launching overnight strikes on Tehran.

    In an angry address at the Nato summit in Ankara, Mr Trump told reporters: “These are evil, sick people,” and described them as scum and a cancer that needs to be cut out.

    Asked specifically about the peace deal, Mr Trump said: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them any more.”

    To be fair it was the Iranians which bombed three ships in the Gulf yesterday, and lobbed missiles at US bases in Kuwait this morning.

    Trump’s slowly learning that actual enemies such as Iran and Russia can’t be trusted to negotiate anything in good faith.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,192

    Absurdly old thinking at work

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg4e3lwzqzo

    £37bn??!! For a short range missile.

    Just revive Alpha https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfa_(rocket)

    Or buy the technology for the Korean Hyunmoo-5

    Solid rockets aren’t complex tech, in many ways. This is about giving a pile of money to traditional contractors.

    Build a couple of factories.

    And spend the money on making 10,000 of them.




    Ten-year project? And the minimum spec is a range of only 200 miles?

    Fire Point are aiming to get ballistic missiles into operation by the end of the year.
    The French have demanded that Ariane rockets use wood boosters, for decades. So that it supports their SLBM industry.

    And this is what we get?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,760
    Driver said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    What's the path to that, though? After years of his controlling the media, how do you persuade the Russian people that Putin is actually a bad man and accept an anti-Putin as the new leader?
    When Russians have to walk to the shops, because there's no fuel, and then they find that the shops are all out of bread and other staples, then they will decide that Putin is a bad man, all by themselves.

    Putin's popularity is already on the slide due to the fuel crisis.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,460
    edited 9:12AM
    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Until Burnham becomes Labour leader and PM in 10 days time all opinion polls are irrelevant, indeed in some senses having Labour lower under Starmer is better for him as it means his likely bounce will be bigger
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,228
    DougSeal said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.

    Farage IS the establishment these days. He's desperate given the collapse in his personal popularity to set himself up as anti-establishment when his best mate is POTUS, he's welcomed Tory defectors with open arms, and he willingly accepts funding from our tech overlords.

    The idea that Dulwich educated Farage is a man of the "people" is what makes him "populist". It doesn't make it true. His party has support of roughly 26% of the population. That's less than Sunak's Tories. That it's beating the rest is simply an indication of how divided the nation is. No one speaks for "the people". We don't speak as one.
    Yes, he is very much an establishment character and not an outsider.

    He’s also very marmite as well.

    My in laws (who’d be despised here for being working class and not right on) are very much the sort of people who’d vote Reform but they won’t because neither will overcome their dislike of him. Father in Law thinks he’s slimed and Mother in Law thinks he’s prejudiced. So Reform won’t get a look in.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,743
    In 1985 the UK and Italy had the same population, 56.6 million. Today the UK's population is more than 10 million higher.

    https://georank.org/population/italy/united-kingdom
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,228
    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    Why would they go to The Hague when it is merely a tool of western hegemony.

    You will never see an Israeli, a Brit or an American there. Irrespective of what they did. It is there to punish African warlords, a former Philippines president and East Europeans.

    Any nations engaging with it are fools
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,743
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Until Burnham becomes Labour leader and PM in 10 days time all opinion polls are irrelevant, indeed in some senses having Labour lower under Starmer is better for him as it means his likely bounce will be bigger
    Not true. There's been a small bounce for Labour since it became clear Burnham would become leader, with their average going from about 19% to 21%. But at the same time the Tories seem to have gone up slightly as well, Reform haven't changed much, maybe down a point.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,743
    edited 9:17AM
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Until Burnham becomes Labour leader and PM in 10 days time all opinion polls are irrelevant, indeed in some senses having Labour lower under Starmer is better for him as it means his likely bounce will be bigger
    Not true. There's been a small bounce for Labour since it became clear Burnham would become leader, with their average going from about 19% to 21%. But at the same time the Tories seem to have gone up slightly as well, Reform haven't changed much, maybe down a point. Greens seem to be the main loser of all those changes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,377
    Sandpit said:

    Donald Trump has declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran.

    The US president told reporters he didn’t “want to deal with them any more” after launching overnight strikes on Tehran.

    In an angry address at the Nato summit in Ankara, Mr Trump told reporters: “These are evil, sick people,” and described them as scum and a cancer that needs to be cut out.

    Asked specifically about the peace deal, Mr Trump said: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them any more.”

    To be fair it was the Iranians which bombed three ships in the Gulf yesterday, and lobbed missiles at US bases in Kuwait this morning.

    Trump’s slowly learning that actual enemies such as Iran and Russia can’t be trusted to negotiate anything in good faith.
    It's rather strange he'd be so slow to realise other people act in bad faith since he always does exactly that himself. Where's that famous dealmaking nous?
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 794

    Donald Trump has declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran.

    The US president told reporters he didn’t “want to deal with them any more” after launching overnight strikes on Tehran.

    In an angry address at the Nato summit in Ankara, Mr Trump told reporters: “These are evil, sick people,” and described them as scum and a cancer that needs to be cut out.

    Asked specifically about the peace deal, Mr Trump said: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them any more.”

    The more important bit is what he said immediately afterwards:

    “I’ll speak to our negotiators… they want to negotiate… but they have to come back to me.”

    That’s classic Trump. He declares something dead, then immediately leaves the door unlocked.
    My reading is that this is mostly domestic signalling, with a bit of negotiating posture and a dose of genuine anger.

    He’s telling his base that diplomacy failed because Iran broke the June memorandum by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. That allows him to present the overnight strikes as punishment rather than escalation. At the same time, “I’m done with them” is a familiar Trump negotiating tactic. If Tehran comes back with concessions, he can pivot straight to “they came back to me”. It reinforces the image that he decides when diplomacy starts and stops.

    This also fits his broader pattern: short, high-profile uses of force followed by an offer to negotiate from what he sees as a position of strength.

    The memorandum is probably dead. Diplomacy itself probably isn’t.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,624
    Battlebus said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.

    One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.

    By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
    In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.

    So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
    Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
    It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
    It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
    Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.





    Well, duh. That's the whole point of a stunt.
    Which just shows Farage has won.

    Duh
    Without the ground support that other parties have, all they have is stunts. And the media obliges.
    I suspect someone is going to provide Binface with the funds needed, if only for the laughs, to run his by election campaign and by election spending limits are very generous. Could be crowd funded.

    You can't pay canvassers in an election campaign, but it would be fun if enough volunteers dressed up as clowns to campaign. Can you imagine being canvassed by a clown?

    Just to make clear I was referring to a Binface activist dressing up and not Farage.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,192
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.

    Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen? :hushed:
    Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment.
    "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy.
    "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud.
    "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?"

    https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
    The problem with that line of argument is that the anti-establishment leadership has always been part of the establishment.

    See the Grachi, Marius, Clodius, Caesar…
    The burghers of Clacton talk of little else.
    The point is that the main candidates of the Populares are never bricklayers etc.

    And trying to use it as an argument has failed for millennia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,192
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.

    Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen? :hushed:
    Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment.
    "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy.
    "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud.
    "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?"

    https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
    The problem with that line of argument is that the anti-establishment leadership has always been part of the establishment.

    See the Grachi, Marius, Clodius, Caesar…
    The burghers of Clacton talk of little else.
    The point is that the main candidates of the Populares are never bricklayers etc.

    And trying to use it as an argument has failed for millennia.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,760
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    Why would they go to The Hague when it is merely a tool of western hegemony.

    You will never see an Israeli, a Brit or an American there. Irrespective of what they did. It is there to punish African warlords, a former Philippines president and East Europeans.

    Any nations engaging with it are fools
    They would be sent to the Hague because that would be a condition for granting Russia access to the bits of the world economy that the West controls.

    The Hague is a tool of Western hegemony I can get behind.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,743
    This double post problem seems to be affecting lots of people on here.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,754
    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Burnham fans, please explain?

    (As I said yesterday, funnily enough!)
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 794
    edited 9:23AM
    Trump orders US to cut all trade with Spain

    *Telegraph

    Donald Trump ‌has ordered the US to cut off all trade with Spain, calling it a “terrible partner” in Nato.

    The US president told Scott Bessent, his treasury secretary, to cease trade with the country on Wednesday, accusing it of failing to contribute enough to the defence alliance.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,760
    Andy_JS said:

    This double post problem seems to be affecting lots of people on here.

    It's a bit of a strange one because I think I've experienced it only twice, so it's intermittent. I managed to edit one of my double posts into a wholly new post, so not many people would have noticed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738
    Andy_JS said:

    In 1985 the UK and Italy had the same population, 56.6 million. Today the UK's population is more than 10 million higher.

    https://georank.org/population/italy/united-kingdom

    Thats a lot of sex.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Burnham fans, please explain?

    (As I said yesterday, funnily enough!)
    Isn't today the day that matters? #Labourtimetable
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    Why would they go to The Hague when it is merely a tool of western hegemony.

    You will never see an Israeli, a Brit or an American there. Irrespective of what they did. It is there to punish African warlords, a former Philippines president and East Europeans.

    Any nations engaging with it are fools
    Well if they don’t want to go to The Hague, they’d better stay well away from balconies in tall buildings.

    Their choice.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,377
    edited 9:26AM

    Andy_JS said:

    This double post problem seems to be affecting lots of people on here.

    It's a bit of a strange one because I think I've experienced it only twice, so it's intermittent. I managed to edit one of my double posts into a wholly new post, so not many people would have noticed.
    Hats off. That's what people should do when they get 'duped'. Just go into one of them on 'edit' and turn it into a fresh little gem.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,760

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Burnham fans, please explain?

    (As I said yesterday, funnily enough!)
    Isn't today the day that matters? #Labourtimetable
    I think nominations open tomorrow.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Burnham fans, please explain?

    (As I said yesterday, funnily enough!)
    Isn't today the day that matters? #Labourtimetable
    Edit - I see I have it wrong - Noms open tomorrow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,460
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Until Burnham becomes Labour leader and PM in 10 days time all opinion polls are irrelevant, indeed in some senses having Labour lower under Starmer is better for him as it means his likely bounce will be bigger
    Not true. There's been a small bounce for Labour since it became clear Burnham would become leader, with their average going from about 19% to 21%. But at the same time the Tories seem to have gone up slightly as well, Reform haven't changed much, maybe down a point.
    On this poll clearly there hasn't been much. MiC has a Burnham led Labour going from 21% to 27%, that will be the key test, polls while Starmer remains PM are largely irrelevant

    https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/2069778743808110859?s=20
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336
    kjh said:

    Battlebus said:

    ydoethur said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.

    One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.

    By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
    In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.

    So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
    Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
    It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
    It won't be in the least sad if he spikes Farage's cynical, desperation-driven stunt though. For which he doesn't need to win he just needs a big vote.
    Here you are calling it a desperate stunt yet you cant stop talking about it.





    Well, duh. That's the whole point of a stunt.
    Which just shows Farage has won.

    Duh
    Without the ground support that other parties have, all they have is stunts. And the media obliges.
    I suspect someone is going to provide Binface with the funds needed, if only for the laughs, to run his by election campaign and by election spending limits are very generous. Could be crowd funded.

    You can't pay canvassers in an election campaign, but it would be fun if enough volunteers dressed up as clowns to campaign. Can you imagine being canvassed by a clown?

    Just to make clear I was referring to a Binface activist dressing up and not Farage.
    You sell £50 Binface outfits, and make sure you have the company to do it set up before the by-election is actually called.

    There have to be groups of donors and activists out there who’d flood the zone to get rid of Farage, especially if the by-election is in the summer when the students are all on holiday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,460

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Burnham fans, please explain?

    (As I said yesterday, funnily enough!)
    Starmer is still Labour leader, not Burnham
  • TazTaz Posts: 29,228
    Sweeney74 said:

    Donald Trump has declared an end to the ceasefire with Iran.

    The US president told reporters he didn’t “want to deal with them any more” after launching overnight strikes on Tehran.

    In an angry address at the Nato summit in Ankara, Mr Trump told reporters: “These are evil, sick people,” and described them as scum and a cancer that needs to be cut out.

    Asked specifically about the peace deal, Mr Trump said: “To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them any more.”

    The more important bit is what he said immediately afterwards:

    “I’ll speak to our negotiators… they want to negotiate… but they have to come back to me.”

    That’s classic Trump. He declares something dead, then immediately leaves the door unlocked.
    My reading is that this is mostly domestic signalling, with a bit of negotiating posture and a dose of genuine anger.

    He’s telling his base that diplomacy failed because Iran broke the June memorandum by attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. That allows him to present the overnight strikes as punishment rather than escalation. At the same time, “I’m done with them” is a familiar Trump negotiating tactic. If Tehran comes back with concessions, he can pivot straight to “they came back to me”. It reinforces the image that he decides when diplomacy starts and stops.

    This also fits his broader pattern: short, high-profile uses of force followed by an offer to negotiate from what he sees as a position of strength.

    The memorandum is probably dead. Diplomacy itself probably isn’t.
    The memorandum was dead before it was signed.

    Especially as Israel, acting as a rogue state, was deliberately undermining it.

    Trump is in a pickle here as he trusted Bibi and the Israelis on what would happen in Iran.

    If anything the regime is stronger now and more war will simply fuck the global economy up. It won’t do anything concrete.

    He has to accept the new reality of Hormuz and the Gulf which both he and Israel have created and longer term work to mitigate Hormuz.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,760
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Burnham fans, please explain?

    (As I said yesterday, funnily enough!)
    Starmer is still Labour leader, not Burnham
    Perhaps.

    I do wonder whether the extended timetable will work against Burnham. Labour will announce him as their new leader, eventually, and you can imagine a lot of people thinking, "didn't that happen ages ago?" and wondering why he hasn't done anything yet.

    It may be acting to dissipate all the momentum he had generated.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    Why would they go to The Hague when it is merely a tool of western hegemony.

    You will never see an Israeli, a Brit or an American there. Irrespective of what they did. It is there to punish African warlords, a former Philippines president and East Europeans.

    Any nations engaging with it are fools
    They would be sent to the Hague because that would be a condition for granting Russia access to the bits of the world economy that the West controls.

    The Hague is a tool of Western hegemony I can get behind.
    Indeed.

    Hand over Putin and Lavrov, and we’ll ease the sanctions enough for you to repair some of those oil refineries in time for winter.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,478
    Who pays for the by-election? Is it the local authority? What if the constituency overlaps two local authority areas?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336
    Taz said:
    IOC did the same yesterday. Someone’s being bribed with rubles.

    Every European leader needs to tell Trump today that they’ll boycot the Olympics in LA if Russians are there as Russians.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 2,151
    If we can spin things out long enough, and if there is still a vacancy after the by-election, there is no reason why Count Binface couldn't be Prime Minister. Andy Burnham makes a few gaffes, and yep.... Prime Minister Count Binface...... it's happening!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738
    Taz said:
    I must have missed the bit where the illegal invasion of Ukraine ended. Maybe it happened when I was watching the world cup?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,170

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.

    Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen? :hushed:
    Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment.
    "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy.
    "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud.
    "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?"

    https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
    The problem with that line of argument is that the anti-establishment leadership has always been part of the establishment.

    See the Grachi, Marius, Clodius, Caesar…
    The burghers of Clacton talk of little else.
    The point is that the main candidates of the Populares are never bricklayers etc.

    And trying to use it as an argument has failed for millennia.
    Actually the last two candidates of the Populares were etc, plumbers (one successful, one failing the bum sniff test).
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 489
    Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.

    Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,996

    Andy_JS said:

    In 1985 the UK and Italy had the same population, 56.6 million. Today the UK's population is more than 10 million higher.

    https://georank.org/population/italy/united-kingdom

    Thats a lot of sex.
    Not for me, sadly.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,590
    HYUFD said:

    Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim

    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/2074602485075894576

    I hope the next "Re-" political party is called Rectal
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,633

    MattW said:

    The Ref UK line is clear:

    Agent Anderson:
    Lee Anderson MP

    @LeeAndersonMP_
    So despite all the parties wanting to get rid of @Nigel_Farage not one of them have said they will stand against him yet.

    Absolute cowards.

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/2074544497598386208

    Tice:
    Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧

    @TiceRichard 14h
    The main parties are running scared

    They claim they want Standards Inquiry to lead to by election

    So we trigger by election

    Now they all bottle it

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/2074548538000769432

    (Tice is sending out a firehose of responses to reporters.)

    I think that's going to work with some voters.
    Sure; it's not as though Farage will get zero votes.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,996

    Taz said:
    I must have missed the bit where the illegal invasion of Ukraine ended. Maybe it happened when I was watching the world cup?
    You also missed the bit where the illegal invasion of Ukraine ended because of sanctions imposed against Russian sports teams.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336
    Driver said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    What's the path to that, though? After years of his controlling the media, how do you persuade the Russian people that Putin is actually a bad man and accept an anti-Putin as the new leader?
    Starvation probably concentrates the minds of the proles somewhat.

    When they’re queuing for bread and fuel, as they did a few decades ago, the guy who says he turned around the economy after the ‘90s has clearly failed no matter how good the TV propoganda. That the TV stations are to some extent actually now questioning the economic situation, is also good.
  • CharlieSharkCharlieShark Posts: 489
    I think this has only just come out today, a well hung parliament, with no easy answers:

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_vipoll_20260708.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,938

    Who pays for the by-election? Is it the local authority? What if the constituency overlaps two local authority areas?

    Central government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,938
    On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.

    But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?

    Especially when the investigation resumes...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,762
    edited 9:51AM
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ukraine hit two more oil refineries overnight, in Saratov and Tartarstan. That's twice they've hit more than one refinery in a single night this month, which brings the total to seven refineries so far in July.


    The Financial Times published this chart earlier in the month, and Ukraine are well on the way to taking this campaign up another notch. They also hit an oil pumping station in Ufa, and 6 more ships trying to supply Crimea

    Saratov looks lovely at this time of year 😉

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2074651901799411954
    How much of Russia’s domestic heating is oil-based? Winter, after all, is coming.
    At the moment they’re not even thinking that far ahead, they’re wondering if their farms have enough diesel for the harvest.

    The old Soviet apartment blocks in large cities are almost all run on a central heating system, with a large oil-fired water heater in the basement that powers radiators around the building.

    It’s not impossible that more remote parts of Russia encounter a serious humanitarian crisis this winter. The worry is that Putin, as with many previous leaders in that part of the world, doesn’t care too much about his own population and lets it happen.

    If Russia leaves Ukraine, and the Politbureau all go to The Hague, then the international community will send as much aid as required.
    Why would they go to The Hague when it is merely a tool of western hegemony.

    You will never see an Israeli, a Brit or an American there. Irrespective of what they did. It is there to punish African warlords, a former Philippines president and East Europeans.

    Any nations engaging with it are fools
    Il est défendu de tuer; tout meurtrier est puni, à moins qu'il n'ait tué en grande compagnie, et au son des trompettes.

    ... as Voltaire wrote.

    At the end of last year the ICJ ruled that Russia's claims of Ukrainian geoncidal shenanigans in Donetsk and Lugansk were admissable and will go to trial in 2027 so there's going to be plenty of people going to Den Haag.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 3,332

    Absurdly old thinking at work

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg4e3lwzqzo

    £37bn??!! For a short range missile.

    Just revive Alpha https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfa_(rocket)

    Or buy the technology for the Korean Hyunmoo-5

    Solid rockets aren’t complex tech, in many ways. This is about giving a pile of money to traditional contractors.

    Build a couple of factories.

    And spend the money on making 10,000 of them

    The BBC report seems to miss that this is the UK announcing funding for a bunch of joint projects, including the Stratus program to replace Storm Shadow, so a stealth cruise missile with a 2000+km range as well as the 500km medium range ballistic missile project:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/50bn-boost-for-european-deep-precision-strike-capabilities-as-uk-leads-new-initiative

    (There’s a Meteor replacement (FASE) been announced recently as well, although I think that’s a different funding pot to the one being announced here.)

    So not just a medium range ballistic missile.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336

    Who pays for the by-election? Is it the local authority? What if the constituency overlaps two local authority areas?

    IIRC the local authority (nominated for each constituency) runs the process of the election, but the bill is paid from a Parliamentary budget.

    Farage has however said that Reform will pay the bill for this one, presumably back to the same account that currently pays Reform their Short Money.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738
    edited 9:56AM

    Taz said:
    I must have missed the bit where the illegal invasion of Ukraine ended. Maybe it happened when I was watching the world cup?
    You also missed the bit where the illegal invasion of Ukraine ended because of sanctions imposed against Russian sports teams.
    Would never be expected to work in isolation. My view is that states that engage in this kind of thing need to become pariah nations. Otherwise you have absurd situations. Russia seem happy to murder Ukranians in apartment blocks, they should not be accorded the rights that other nations get to be part of the global community.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 43,647
    @kyivindependent.com‬

    ⚡️'Moscow will fall' — Another 9 Russian shadow fleet tankers hit in Azov Sea, Ukraine's 'Madyar' says.

    According to Robert Brovdi, over the past 72 hours Ukrainian forces hit 21 vessels , including 19 shadow fleet tankers, one cargo ship, and one ferry in Crimea's Kerch.

    https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3mq4tfwdwkk2f
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 64,192

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.

    Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen? :hushed:
    Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment.
    "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy.
    "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud.
    "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?"

    https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
    The problem with that line of argument is that the anti-establishment leadership has always been part of the establishment.

    See the Grachi, Marius, Clodius, Caesar…
    The burghers of Clacton talk of little else.
    The point is that the main candidates of the Populares are never bricklayers etc.

    And trying to use it as an argument has failed for millennia.
    Actually the last two candidates of the Populares were etc, plumbers (one successful, one failing the bum sniff test).
    .. and Caesar promoted some very low types to the Senate. Which was part of why he got stabbed.

    That’s just part of the shtick - they don’t get to run the show.
  • eekeek Posts: 34,429

    MattW said:

    The Ref UK line is clear:

    Agent Anderson:
    Lee Anderson MP

    @LeeAndersonMP_
    So despite all the parties wanting to get rid of @Nigel_Farage not one of them have said they will stand against him yet.

    Absolute cowards.

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/2074544497598386208

    Tice:
    Richard Tice MP 🇬🇧

    @TiceRichard 14h
    The main parties are running scared

    They claim they want Standards Inquiry to lead to by election

    So we trigger by election

    Now they all bottle it

    https://x.com/TiceRichard/status/2074548538000769432

    (Tice is sending out a firehose of responses to reporters.)

    I think that's going to work with some voters.
    ydoethur said:

    On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.

    But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?

    Especially when the investigation resumes...

    It also means that the Tories can compare their last vote (12,820) with what Farage got.

    Which means come the second by election there will be bar charts showing that the Tories really could beat Farage there
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    On topic: yes, the fact the establishment aren't fighting the seat makes his point all the more clear.

    Farage has withdrawn?! I missed that, when did it happen? :hushed:
    Nick Robinson to Zia Yusuf: "You say this is all about standing up to the establishment.
    "You're a multi-millionaire. You made your money selling luxury helicopter charters and rare wines to the super-wealthy.
    "Nigel Farage is a public schoolboy, a former commodities trader who gets £5m gifts from his friends and lives in a 5-storey house next to Buckingham Palace courtesy of a man convicted of fraud.
    "Do you really think you are in a position at Reform UK to claim not to be part of the super-wealthy, self-serving establishment?"

    https://x.com/KevinASchofield/status/2074757620825469092
    The problem with that line of argument is that the anti-establishment leadership has always been part of the establishment.

    See the Grachi, Marius, Clodius, Caesar…
    The burghers of Clacton talk of little else.
    The point is that the main candidates of the Populares are never bricklayers etc.

    And trying to use it as an argument has failed for millennia.
    Actually the last two candidates of the Populares were etc, plumbers (one successful, one failing the bum sniff test).
    .. and Caesar promoted some very low types to the Senate. Which was part of why he got stabbed.

    That’s just part of the shtick - they don’t get to run the show.
    Shakespeare informed me that he got stabbed because he started to behave as if he was a god, rather than a mortal man.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 5,311
    Binface now 5/1 with Ladbrokes. Farage 1/8.

    Certainly not yet a done deal.

    If all the parties were standing Farage would walk it. Evidence of epic grift hasn't detererred Maga diehard supporters of Trump in the US and even faced with evidence on a similar scale enough Reform supporters in Clacton would show a parallel lack of capacity for independent thought. But Binface muddies the water.

    I had to laugh at Binface's reaction when asked why people should vote for him on this morning's Today programme: "I'm not Farage" followed by silence. Nailed it in one.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 48,170
    edited 10:03AM
    ydoethur said:

    On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.

    But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?

    Especially when the investigation resumes...

    Actually the odds on Binface are shorter than I expected. Not great value I’d say, but another minor humiliation for Farbage.


    Count Binface's chances of winning the Clacton by-election have increased overnight

    Ladbrokes now give him a 17% chance!

    Reform UK - 1/8
    Count Binface - 5/1
    50/1 bar

    ladbrokes.com/en/sports/even…

    https://x.com/ladpolitics/status/2074786391150436414?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 79,938

    ydoethur said:

    On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.

    But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?

    Especially when the investigation resumes...

    Actually the odds on Binface are shorter than I expected. Not great value I’d say, but another minor humiliation for Farbage.


    Count Binface's chances of winning the Clacton by-election have increased overnight

    Ladbrokes now give him a 17% chance!

    Reform UK - 1/8
    Count Binface - 5/1
    50/1 bar

    ladbrokes.com/en/sports/even…

    https://x.com/ladpolitics/status/2074786391150436414?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    I think that's an awful lot of punters enjoying themselves.

    I hope he doesn't win, by the way. I don't want to die laughing over Nigel Farage.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 51,377
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim

    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/2074602485075894576

    I hope the next "Re-" political party is called Rectal
    And when they get an easy ride from the media the cry goes up ... "it's about time we had some serious Rectal scrutiny".
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,853
    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim

    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/2074602485075894576

    I hope the next "Re-" political party is called Rectal
    Reconnoiter. And all of their MPs are required to wear ghillie suits at all times.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,069
    Is this by-election actually going to happen?

    Surely Farage is going to unresign at some point today?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,590

    ydoethur said:

    On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.

    But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?

    Especially when the investigation resumes...

    Actually the odds on Binface are shorter than I expected. Not great value I’d say, but another minor humiliation for Farbage.


    Count Binface's chances of winning the Clacton by-election have increased overnight

    Ladbrokes now give him a 17% chance!

    Reform UK - 1/8
    Count Binface - 5/1
    50/1 bar

    ladbrokes.com/en/sports/even…

    https://x.com/ladpolitics/status/2074786391150436414?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    I think a few people having a quiet giggle has shifted the dial. Would be hilarious but...no
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,762
    edited 10:12AM

    ydoethur said:

    On a serious point, Farage will win. We all know that.

    But if the turnout is around 15%, what sort of signal does that send about how popular he is?

    Especially when the investigation resumes...

    Actually the odds on Binface are shorter than I expected. Not great value I’d say, but another minor humiliation for Farbage.


    Count Binface's chances of winning the Clacton by-election have increased overnight

    Ladbrokes now give him a 17% chance!

    Reform UK - 1/8
    Count Binface - 5/1
    50/1 bar

    ladbrokes.com/en/sports/even…

    https://x.com/ladpolitics/status/2074786391150436414?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
    Big Nige got 48% of the vote in the San Diego of Essex at the GE. There's, at the very least, 20% regarded arseholes who will vote for him no matter fucking what. There is no way Binface has a 17% chance.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 64,073
    Foss said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim

    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/2074602485075894576

    I hope the next "Re-" political party is called Rectal
    Reconnoiter. And all of their MPs are required to wear ghillie suits at all times.
    Surely 'Reconnoitre'? Isn't the '-er' spelling American?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,235

    nico67 said:

    The media have no interest in following the so called Clacton campaign .

    With the Greens not standing they don’t even have the polar opposites going up against each other narrative . Farage will be really pissed off .

    Reform can spin this as much as they like but the opposition parties point that any by-election should have waited till after the investigation reported seems fair and would be supported by the vast majority of the public .

    There's enough of a constituency there for Farage that they'll believe this is an establishment stitch up.

    But he's starting to lose the floating voters he needs to become next PM.
    Farage fans are like the MAGA mob - they steadfastly refuse to see what is staring them in the face and look ever more stupid by the day.
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,853

    Foss said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim

    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/2074602485075894576

    I hope the next "Re-" political party is called Rectal
    Reconnoiter. And all of their MPs are required to wear ghillie suits at all times.
    Surely 'Reconnoitre'? Isn't the '-er' spelling American?
    So it is.

    (Insert your own joke about overseas funding here)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,633
    Phil said:

    Absurdly old thinking at work

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg4e3lwzqzo

    £37bn??!! For a short range missile.

    Just revive Alpha https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfa_(rocket)

    Or buy the technology for the Korean Hyunmoo-5

    Solid rockets aren’t complex tech, in many ways. This is about giving a pile of money to traditional contractors.

    Build a couple of factories.

    And spend the money on making 10,000 of them

    The BBC report seems to miss that this is the UK announcing funding for a bunch of joint projects, including the Stratus program to replace Storm Shadow, so a stealth cruise missile with a 2000+km range as well as the 500km medium range ballistic missile project:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/50bn-boost-for-european-deep-precision-strike-capabilities-as-uk-leads-new-initiative

    (There’s a Meteor replacement (FASE) been announced recently as well, although I think that’s a different funding pot to the one being announced here.)

    So not just a medium range ballistic missile.
    It's all long grass stuff, though.
    And at the expense of short to medium term procurement. The Meteor mid-life upgrade has also been cancelled, for example.

    The usual putting off expenditure for a successor government to sort out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 64,073
    Foss said:

    Foss said:

    DougSeal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Lawrence Fox has also confirmed he will stand in Clacton. Fox is a friend of Tommy Robinson and debated on the side as Tommy R at the Oxford Union only a few weeks ago so in the absence of Restore and if you ignore Binface it will be a straight fight between Farage and the even more hardline anti woke Islam sceptic Reclaim

    https://x.com/LozzaFox/status/2074602485075894576

    I hope the next "Re-" political party is called Rectal
    Reconnoiter. And all of their MPs are required to wear ghillie suits at all times.
    Surely 'Reconnoitre'? Isn't the '-er' spelling American?
    So it is.

    (Insert your own joke about overseas funding here)
    Don't worry, at least you didn't refer to the Great Patriotic War.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 2,070
    edited 10:17AM
    Has Farage actually resigned yet?

    Once he sobers up this morning he remains a fairly canny political operator, surely he will volte face with his tail firmly clamped between his sweaty bum cheeks?

    One or two days of humiliation now is surely preferable to weeks of humiliation in a campaign against a bin.

    ETA: rottenborough I see you beat me too it, albeit with less colourful language.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,996
    Why Is Britain Burning Through Prime Ministers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOZZmIUUOJ0

    Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,759
    edited 10:20AM

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.

    One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.

    By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
    In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.

    So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
    Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
    It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
    Do people still remember Commander Bill Boaks?
    And lost to memory almost is William Brownrigg who in 1951 and 1955 stood in Penrith and Border on a manifesto to abolish margarine.

    (Footnote, in 1955, 71 years ago, the winner was one William Whitelaw, who held it until 1983, and never won less than 50% of the vote. Happy days.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 137,460
    edited 10:20AM

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    More In Common is the second poll in two days to put Labour in third place, following YouGov yesterday.

    Ref 27 (-1)
    Con 22 (+2)
    Lab 21 (-3)
    LD 11 (-1)
    Grn 10 (=)
    SNP 2 (=)
    Oth 5 (+2)

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2074765871289901195

    Burnham fans, please explain?

    (As I said yesterday, funnily enough!)
    Starmer is still Labour leader, not Burnham
    Perhaps.

    I do wonder whether the extended timetable will work against Burnham. Labour will announce him as their new leader, eventually, and you can imagine a lot of people thinking, "didn't that happen ages ago?" and wondering why he hasn't done anything yet.

    It may be acting to dissipate all the momentum he had generated.
    I doubt it makes much difference, Burnham will likely be PM in 10 days.

    MiC still has the Greens on 10% while Starmer remains PM, with Burnham they fall to 8% with Reform and the LDs also slightly down
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,762
    Nigelb said:

    Phil said:

    Absurdly old thinking at work

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg4e3lwzqzo

    £37bn??!! For a short range missile.

    Just revive Alpha https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfa_(rocket)

    Or buy the technology for the Korean Hyunmoo-5

    Solid rockets aren’t complex tech, in many ways. This is about giving a pile of money to traditional contractors.

    Build a couple of factories.

    And spend the money on making 10,000 of them

    The BBC report seems to miss that this is the UK announcing funding for a bunch of joint projects, including the Stratus program to replace Storm Shadow, so a stealth cruise missile with a 2000+km range as well as the 500km medium range ballistic missile project:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/50bn-boost-for-european-deep-precision-strike-capabilities-as-uk-leads-new-initiative

    (There’s a Meteor replacement (FASE) been announced recently as well, although I think that’s a different funding pot to the one being announced here.)

    So not just a medium range ballistic missile.
    It's all long grass stuff, though.
    And at the expense of short to medium term procurement. The Meteor mid-life upgrade has also been cancelled, for example.

    The usual putting off expenditure for a successor government to sort out.
    Putting Meteor on F-35 to replace AIM-120 feels like a complete waste of time and money at this point so they'll probably do it.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738
    edited 10:25AM

    Why Is Britain Burning Through Prime Ministers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOZZmIUUOJ0

    Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.

    Because times are (perceived to be) hard and the ones we've tried have been shit.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,817
    edited 10:23AM
    maxh said:

    Has Farage actually resigned yet?

    Once he sobers up this morning he remains a fairly canny political operator, surely he will volte face with his tail firmly clamped between his sweaty bum cheeks?

    One or two days of humiliation now is surely preferable to weeks of humiliation in a campaign against a bin.

    ETA: rottenborough I see you beat me too it, albeit with less colourful language.

    Could he spin it that the others parties, in refusing to field candidates, have denied the good folk of Clacton their democratic birthright and therefore he's not going to be complicit in their dirty game?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yusuf on R4 Today this morning was toecurlingly awful. The sense that Reform can only deal with stuff by shouting over questions and changing the subject is palpable. It felt like he had nowhere to go and nothing to say. Clearing the debris will take time but I think it's over for Reform in the sense that they will never lead or be part of a government.

    One to watch: Danny Kruger. Since 6th July he has posted on X exactly once, on the subject of Capita's many failings.

    By contrast to Yusuf, Binface on R4 Today this morning was rather good. Sharp cookie.
    In addition to writing for HIGNFY, The Thick of It and producing a load of tv shows and podcasts (mainly for the BBC), he is part of the team that writes the questions for Only Connect.

    So not exactly surprising he is media savvy and doesn't come across as a moron.
    Ah see, Nigel was right - the Establishment.
    It is a bit sad that even novelty characters are now Oxford grads with sensible day jobs, where as MRLP leader was proper wild one.
    Do people still remember Commander Bill Boaks?
    And lost to memory almost is William Brownrigg who in 1951 and 1955 stood in Penrith and Border on a manifesto to abolish margarine.

    (Footnote, in 1955, 71 years ago, the winner was one William Whitelaw, who held it until 1983, and never won less than 50% of the vote. Happy days.)
    @Luckyguy1983 would approve, and to be fair he may be right about the benefits of butter vs the evils of margarine.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,996
    OT the Betfair forum has been unresponsive since last night.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738

    maxh said:

    Has Farage actually resigned yet?

    Once he sobers up this morning he remains a fairly canny political operator, surely he will volte face with his tail firmly clamped between his sweaty bum cheeks?

    One or two days of humiliation now is surely preferable to weeks of humiliation in a campaign against a bin.

    ETA: rottenborough I see you beat me too it, albeit with less colourful language.

    Could he spin it that the others parties, in refusing to field candidates, have denied the good folk of Clacton their democratic birthright and therefore he's not going to be complicit in their dirty game?
    I think he has to go all in now. Pulling out now might avoid a pregnancy but still counts as intercourse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,069

    Why Is Britain Burning Through Prime Ministers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOZZmIUUOJ0

    Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.

    Because times a (perceived to be) hard and the ones we've tried have been shit.
    And the voters are not interested in being told the truth. We are a very low growth, low productivity country, where living standards have stagnated and millions do not work and yet we want Scando levels of public services.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,182

    Why Is Britain Burning Through Prime Ministers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOZZmIUUOJ0

    Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.

    I saw a headline somewhere this morning about the problematic cost of having to provide lifetime security to ex PMs as there are so many that it’s passed the £100m mark now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 73,069
    Kemi: "Farage has called a by-election to fight himself."

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738

    Why Is Britain Burning Through Prime Ministers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOZZmIUUOJ0

    Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.

    Because times a (perceived to be) hard and the ones we've tried have been shit.
    And the voters are not interested in being told the truth. We are a very low growth, low productivity country, where living standards have stagnated and millions do not work and yet we want Scando levels of public services.

    Plus, as above, we've increase our population hugely (when compared with say Italy) without really planning how to cope.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336
    boulay said:

    Why Is Britain Burning Through Prime Ministers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOZZmIUUOJ0

    Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.

    I saw a headline somewhere this morning about the problematic cost of having to provide lifetime security to ex PMs as there are so many that it’s passed the £100m mark now.
    Starmer will be the ninth living former PM.

    Major
    Blair
    Brown
    Cameron
    May
    Johnson
    Truss
    Sunak
    Starmer

    Also note that a number of these are still relatively young and active, with loads of international travel for personal gain.

    There’s something to be said for taking expenses at source, if for example they’re going to the US to make a million from addressing a wunch of bankers, and there’s three police travelling in 1st and staying in the same fancy hotels.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,996

    Why Is Britain Burning Through Prime Ministers?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOZZmIUUOJ0

    Some ‘data journalism’ in under 3 minutes from Times Wireless.

    Because times a (perceived to be) hard and the ones we've tried have been shit.
    And the voters are not interested in being told the truth. We are a very low growth, low productivity country, where living standards have stagnated and millions do not work and yet we want Scando levels of public services.

    Plus, as above, we've increase our population hugely (when compared with say Italy) without really planning how to cope.
    Also on pb, Japan and China are in deep trouble as they face population decline.

    Also also on pb, most economic statistics are rubbish, including GDP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 81,288
    Out of interest, which office was Stephen Gethins appointed to by the treasury ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 62,336

    Kemi: "Farage has called a by-election to fight himself."

    Kemi’s going to turn up and hug Binface, isn’t she?

    Well played Kemi, well played.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 2,070

    maxh said:

    Has Farage actually resigned yet?

    Once he sobers up this morning he remains a fairly canny political operator, surely he will volte face with his tail firmly clamped between his sweaty bum cheeks?

    One or two days of humiliation now is surely preferable to weeks of humiliation in a campaign against a bin.

    ETA: rottenborough I see you beat me too it, albeit with less colourful language.

    Could he spin it that the others parties, in refusing to field candidates, have denied the good folk of Clacton their democratic birthright and therefore he's not going to be complicit in their dirty game?
    Perhaps.

    It feels very thin to me but I will very much acknowledge that I am not a neutral observer in respect of how Farage might be perceived.

    This is a thoroughly enjoyable day politically, and as such is a rare treat these days so I'm making the most of it.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 9,182
    Taz said:
    Ultimately I would expect that if FIFA lift the ban then UEFA can hold their ban so Russia would have to switch confederations to Asia in order to play in qualifying for the World Cup which long term isn’t what Russia’s clubs would want as it locks them out forever from the Champions league etc. If FIFA kick off with UEFA about it then UEFA can dangle the stick of pulling UEFA from the WC and Club World Championship which would massively damage FIFA’s revenues as the European market is huge and as is normal in the WC six of the last 8 teams are European and most of the stars they want in the Club World Championship, and the ingest global clubs with the huge global support are European.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,996
    Pulpstar said:

    Out of interest, which office was Stephen Gethins appointed to by the treasury ?

    Chiltern Hundreds. Wikipedia has lists:-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stewards_of_the_Chiltern_Hundreds
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stewards_of_the_Manor_of_Northstead
  • oggologioggologi Posts: 34
    If it’s really about being anti establishment then people should vote for Binface.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,738
    Sandpit said:

    Kemi: "Farage has called a by-election to fight himself."

    Kemi’s going to turn up and hug Binface, isn’t she?

    Well played Kemi, well played.
    Shock news - Kemi IS Binface. Big reveal on election night...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,759

    Binface would stand more of a chance if he was actually funny, instead it's all a bit of forced humour. A rematch with Al Murray would be better.

    Farage will win at a canter, but the optics won't be great for him. I think it's another mis-step, taken in haste, which is a worrying trait for a potential PM.

    Then recent missteps are collectively fatal.

    1) Wrong candidate for Gorton
    2) Wrong candidate for Makerfield
    3) Dealing with £5million Guardian leak by denial and anger
    4) Getting angry about posh George instead of dealing with the issues

    and in the last 24 hours:
    5) Calling the byelection and walking into the offside trap of the strangely united five man defence of Lab, Con. LD, Green, Restore
    6) Responding with bluster and anger since the by election announcement.

    The only senior Reform person I would normally take seriously is Kruger. Since 3rd July he has posted on X exactly twice; once on defence procurement and once on government contracts with Capita. This non barking dog is interesting.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 59,414
    oggologi said:

    If it’s really about being anti establishment then people should vote for Binface.

    Even more importantly one is a receptacle for rubbish and the other spouts it.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 23,833
    Sandpit said:

    Kemi: "Farage has called a by-election to fight himself."

    Kemi’s going to turn up and hug Binface, isn’t she?

    Well played Kemi, well played.
    Just because you think you heard someone describe her as a Count!
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