Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
The notion that England stand a better chance than the four countries below them on that list is laughable. English punters betting with their hearts always makes England's odds tighter than they ought to be.
You do realise that the odds are set worldwide with the dominant bettors by far Chinese?
No. I assumed that Lads set the odds based on the cash being bet at Lads. Isn't that how it works?
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Recent events have shown that there is nothing inevitable about Nigel's progression to Number 10. The Tories have staved off extinction, and Labour are busy reinventing themselves. And both mainstream parties will soon have confident characterful leaders who are much more tricky for Farage to contrast himself with than Starmer,
While I'm not expecting a significant Reform decline anytime soon, it's pretty clear that tactical voting and unease about Farage's suitability as PM when push comes to shove at a general election, means his chances are now decidedly slim. The talk about him standing down (surely very unlikely) is indicative of this.
I think Reform's standing in opinion polls is now partly based on people not giving the issue much thought. When it comes to by-elections they do, and it tends not to be Reform. If Farage quits it'll be a decisive turning point, and from Labour's viewpoint it's better if he unethusiastically stays on.
Observer reporting that David Miliband is being seriously considered for Foreign Office.
Just gets more bizarre not least with his brother strongly tipped as COE
I did say yesterday that Burnham's success as Mayor and his desire to replicate that through devolution is laudable but my fear is Burnham by thinking at Mayor level and saying he will run no 10 part time from the north shows a degree of naivety that does make me worry he hasn't started to realise just what he is taking on
There is a huge jump from mayor to PM and I fear he is not ready for the 24/7 exposure that will happen to him as every journalist seeks their 'gotcha'
The public are disenchanted, angry, fearful, and hugely cynical of politicians and whilst Burnham may get a honeymoon period, is he and the party ready for 'events' that so quickly undermine modern day PMs ?
I reserve my judgment.
I like Burnham, but fear expectations on him may be unrealistic
The idea of a deal between Reform and the Tories should be a non-starter for two reasons:
Firstly, elections are generally won from the centre and Reform's insurgency is not evidence that this rule will change. what this means is twofold; Reform can't and won't win an election, a fact confirmed by recent travails for Farage, and that the centrist opposition to Reform is greater than their hostility to Labour/LD etc when push comes to shove.
Secondly, for a substantial proportion of the electorate, identifying with Reform is not only wrong, but a 'tainting' wrong - one which puts a stain on all the things you may get right. So many voters who may prefer a right of centre economic/fiscal/jobs/tax policy will not vote for a right of centre movement that plans or threatens to remove ILR from and potentially deport your doctor or stirs up race hatred.
A massive increase in spending on defence is necessary but not sufficient.
The whole MoD is set up to fight the last war, and several floors of staff need to be cleared out of Whitehall.
We need to stop throwing good money after bad on custom projects such as Ajax, instead buying off the shelf. We need to work with a variety of suppliers from different countries, including startups such as Anduril and several companies in Ukraine who are fighting the current war - not the big company who has a habit of offering well-paid non-jobs to MoD retirees.
We need to prioritise making ammunition for current weapons rather than looking at the next big expensive boondoggle, get the Navy actually able to field more than two small ships at any one time, recruit and train tens of thousands of men and officers, address key bottlenecks such as flying school instructors and cybersecurity specialists.
It’s been ignored for decades, probably since 1991, under governments of all colours, well now there’s a heightened threat and we’re not ready, and neither is most of Europe.
The question is who are we defending ourselves against.
Russia are losing the war against Ukraine. They are likely to have a change of leadership by the end of the year. Their conventional forces, tanks, artillery, ships, aircraft have all been destroyed. They frankly couldn't take on Poland, let alone get near to us. They do indulge in terrorism and threaten things such as sub sea cables. Whether the post Putin regime is likely to continue this is hard to guess at this stage but the smart thing is to assume yes.
Ukraine is likely to develop into a serious military power. Their drones are several generations ahead of competitors already and accelerating under the heat of war. But even if things cool between us it is hard to see how they become a threat to the UK.
The US is being massively weakened by the incompetence of Trump but it will remain a major force focused mainly on the Pacific and China. It is not obvious to me how we could or should play any part in those tensions.
NATO has become a meaningless and pointless bureaucracy without a purpose. It is time to replace it with something meaningful, something that will not include the US. What we need to do is shape that new entity and work out what our role is going to be within it. That will determine where the MOD should waste their next tranche of cash.
It's difficult to get your head around all this.
The authoritarian states (China, Russia, Iran, N Korea) are becoming ever more assertive but I doubt that they are keen on a hot war with "the West". Would much prefer to pick off countries one by one by undermining their political systems in order to gain leverage. Bring us to their level by destroying faith in traditional norms though the degeneration in political discourse and the normalisation of corruption. And through the election of anti-Western populists like Orban and Trump.
And then, there is the "grey" war - undisclosed acts of aggression against our infrastructure and institutions. Russia seems to be investing in this, despite Ukraine.
Planes, ships and tanks can seem a bit beside the point in all this, but I think we should be cautious about giving up one area where we are still very much ahead. The Chinese are certainly investing heavily in this area. And the Russians would certainly go after the Baltics given half a chance.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It is the total funds quoted by the electoral commission which I later posted
A massive increase in spending on defence is necessary but not sufficient.
The whole MoD is set up to fight the last war, and several floors of staff need to be cleared out of Whitehall.
We need to stop throwing good money after bad on custom projects such as Ajax, instead buying off the shelf. We need to work with a variety of suppliers from different countries, including startups such as Anduril and several companies in Ukraine who are fighting the current war - not the big company who has a habit of offering well-paid non-jobs to MoD retirees.
We need to prioritise making ammunition for current weapons rather than looking at the next big expensive boondoggle, get the Navy actually able to field more than two small ships at any one time, recruit and train tens of thousands of men and officers, address key bottlenecks such as flying school instructors and cybersecurity specialists.
It’s been ignored for decades, probably since 1991, under governments of all colours, well now there’s a heightened threat and we’re not ready, and neither is most of Europe.
The question is who are we defending ourselves against.
Russia are losing the war against Ukraine. They are likely to have a change of leadership by the end of the year. Their conventional forces, tanks, artillery, ships, aircraft have all been destroyed. They frankly couldn't take on Poland, let alone get near to us. They do indulge in terrorism and threaten things such as sub sea cables. Whether the post Putin regime is likely to continue this is hard to guess at this stage but the smart thing is to assume yes.
Ukraine is likely to develop into a serious military power. Their drones are several generations ahead of competitors already and accelerating under the heat of war. But even if things cool between us it is hard to see how they become a threat to the UK.
The US is being massively weakened by the incompetence of Trump but it will remain a major force focused mainly on the Pacific and China. It is not obvious to me how we could or should play any part in those tensions.
NATO has become a meaningless and pointless bureaucracy without a purpose. It is time to replace it with something meaningful, something that will not include the US. What we need to do is shape that new entity and work out what our role is going to be within it. That will determine where the MOD should waste their next tranche of cash.
It's difficult to get your head around all this.
The authoritarian states (China, Russia, Iran, N Korea) are becoming ever more assertive but I doubt that they are keen on a hot war with "the West". Would much prefer to pick off countries one by one by undermining their political systems in order to gain leverage. Bring us to their level by destroying faith in traditional norms though the degeneration in political discourse and the normalisation of corruption. And through the election of anti-Western populists like Orban and Trump.
And then, there is the "grey" war - undisclosed acts of aggression against our infrastructure and institutions. Russia seems to be investing in this, despite Ukraine.
Planes, ships and tanks can seem a bit beside the point in all this, but I think we should be cautious about giving up one area where we are still very much ahead. The Chinese are certainly investing heavily in this area. And the Russians would certainly go after the Baltics given half a chance.
I think that there is more risk of Russia fragmenting further than claiming the Baltics but I am not saying we simply give up on conventional forces, merely that where we put our emphasis will be determined by defence alliances that don't even exist yet.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It is the total funds quoted by the electoral commission which I later posted
Yes, but but 'attracted' X amount suggests donations, rather than public funding, and as government parties don't get much of the latter it can give the wrong impression.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Recent events have shown that there is nothing inevitable about Nigel's progression to Number 10. The Tories have staved off extinction, and Labour are busy reinventing themselves. And both mainstream parties will soon have confident characterful leaders who are much more tricky for Farage to contrast himself with than Starmer,
While I'm not expecting a significant Reform decline anytime soon, it's pretty clear that tactical voting and unease about Farage's suitability as PM when push comes to shove at a general election, means his chances are now decidedly slim. The talk about him standing down (surely very unlikely) is indicative of this.
I think Reform's standing in opinion polls is now partly based on people not giving the issue much thought. When it comes to by-elections they do, and it tends not to be Reform. If Farage quits it'll be a decisive turning point, and from Labour's viewpoint it's better if he unethusiastically stays on.
Interesting. You think Reform would do better under an "enthusiastic" Tice, Jenrick or Yusuf, than under an unenthusiastic Farage? I have to say that I don't see it.
A massive increase in spending on defence is necessary but not sufficient.
The whole MoD is set up to fight the last war, and several floors of staff need to be cleared out of Whitehall.
We need to stop throwing good money after bad on custom projects such as Ajax, instead buying off the shelf. We need to work with a variety of suppliers from different countries, including startups such as Anduril and several companies in Ukraine who are fighting the current war - not the big company who has a habit of offering well-paid non-jobs to MoD retirees.
We need to prioritise making ammunition for current weapons rather than looking at the next big expensive boondoggle, get the Navy actually able to field more than two small ships at any one time, recruit and train tens of thousands of men and officers, address key bottlenecks such as flying school instructors and cybersecurity specialists.
It’s been ignored for decades, probably since 1991, under governments of all colours, well now there’s a heightened threat and we’re not ready, and neither is most of Europe.
The question is who are we defending ourselves against.
Russia are losing the war against Ukraine. They are likely to have a change of leadership by the end of the year. Their conventional forces, tanks, artillery, ships, aircraft have all been destroyed. They frankly couldn't take on Poland, let alone get near to us. They do indulge in terrorism and threaten things such as sub sea cables. Whether the post Putin regime is likely to continue this is hard to guess at this stage but the smart thing is to assume yes.
Ukraine is likely to develop into a serious military power. Their drones are several generations ahead of competitors already and accelerating under the heat of war. But even if things cool between us it is hard to see how they become a threat to the UK.
The US is being massively weakened by the incompetence of Trump but it will remain a major force focused mainly on the Pacific and China. It is not obvious to me how we could or should play any part in those tensions.
NATO has become a meaningless and pointless bureaucracy without a purpose. It is time to replace it with something meaningful, something that will not include the US. What we need to do is shape that new entity and work out what our role is going to be within it. That will determine where the MOD should waste their next tranche of cash.
It's difficult to get your head around all this.
The authoritarian states (China, Russia, Iran, N Korea) are becoming ever more assertive but I doubt that they are keen on a hot war with "the West". Would much prefer to pick off countries one by one by undermining their political systems in order to gain leverage. Bring us to their level by destroying faith in traditional norms though the degeneration in political discourse and the normalisation of corruption. And through the election of anti-Western populists like Orban and Trump.
And then, there is the "grey" war - undisclosed acts of aggression against our infrastructure and institutions. Russia seems to be investing in this, despite Ukraine.
Planes, ships and tanks can seem a bit beside the point in all this, but I think we should be cautious about giving up one area where we are still very much ahead. The Chinese are certainly investing heavily in this area. And the Russians would certainly go after the Baltics given half a chance.
We need our options open. We are (just about) rich enough for that still.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It is the total funds quoted by the electoral commission which I later posted
Yes, but but 'attracted' X amount suggests donations, rather than public funding, and as government parties don't get much of the latter it can give the wrong impression.
I accept I should have said total funds, but then I am not as perfect as others
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Recent events have shown that there is nothing inevitable about Nigel's progression to Number 10. The Tories have staved off extinction, and Labour are busy reinventing themselves. And both mainstream parties will soon have confident characterful leaders who are much more tricky for Farage to contrast himself with than Starmer,
While I'm not expecting a significant Reform decline anytime soon, it's pretty clear that tactical voting and unease about Farage's suitability as PM when push comes to shove at a general election, means his chances are now decidedly slim. The talk about him standing down (surely very unlikely) is indicative of this.
I think Reform's standing in opinion polls is now partly based on people not giving the issue much thought. When it comes to by-elections they do, and it tends not to be Reform. If Farage quits it'll be a decisive turning point, and from Labour's viewpoint it's better if he unethusiastically stays on.
Interesting. You think Reform would do better under an "enthusiastic" Tice, Jenrick or Yusuf, than under an unenthusiastic Farage? I have to say that I don't see it.
I interpreted Nick's comment as implying that Reform will continue to do more damage to the Tories if Farage stays than if he goes.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
On Farage's £9m+ worth bearing in mind that in the event of a Reform Government Nige would find himself appointing vast numbers of new working peers to the House of Lords.
I remember reading how surprised a Tory chief whip (I forget which one) was at the number of soon-to-be ex-MPs canvassing for a place on the red benches.
Why not slip Nige a few thou on the off-chance if you're a Brexity type with a few quid to spare? Could prove a good investment if ermine is your thing.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Recent events have shown that there is nothing inevitable about Nigel's progression to Number 10. The Tories have staved off extinction, and Labour are busy reinventing themselves. And both mainstream parties will soon have confident characterful leaders who are much more tricky for Farage to contrast himself with than Starmer,
While I'm not expecting a significant Reform decline anytime soon, it's pretty clear that tactical voting and unease about Farage's suitability as PM when push comes to shove at a general election, means his chances are now decidedly slim. The talk about him standing down (surely very unlikely) is indicative of this.
I think Reform's standing in opinion polls is now partly based on people not giving the issue much thought. When it comes to by-elections they do, and it tends not to be Reform. If Farage quits it'll be a decisive turning point, and from Labour's viewpoint it's better if he unethusiastically stays on.
Interesting. You think Reform would do better under an "enthusiastic" Tice, Jenrick or Yusuf, than under an unenthusiastic Farage? I have to say that I don't see it.
I interpreted Nick's comment as implying that Reform will continue to do more damage to the Tories if Farage stays than if he goes.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
I have a LibDem borough councillor and a Green county councillor. Neither make any significant attempt to stay in touch except at election time, when we drown in their leaflets, which are all about their alleged personal attributes (you could reasonably describe the area as Waitrosey).. If there is any effort by either party to boost national standing, it's not visible here. Mind you, Labour and Tories don't get in touch much either - essentially between elections we don't hear from any of them unless we make the effort to seek out their websites. Down the road in Didcot, Reform won the seat, and are similarly invisible at the moment.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
On Farage's £9m+ worth bearing in mind that in the event of a Reform Government Nige would find himself appointing vast numbers of new working peers to the House of Lords.
I remember reading how surprised a Tory chief whip (I forget which one) was at the number of soon-to-be ex-MPs canvassing for a place on the red benches.
Why not slip Nige a few thou on the off-chance if you're a Brexity type with a few quid to spare? Could prove a good investment if ermine is your thing.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
The notion that England stand a better chance than the four countries below them on that list is laughable. English punters betting with their hearts always makes England's odds tighter than they ought to be.
You do realise that the odds are set worldwide with the dominant bettors by far Chinese?
No. I assumed that Lads set the odds based on the cash being bet at Lads. Isn't that how it works?
No, it did pre internet but not for a long time now. If they did that they would create arbitrage with the rest of the world market which arbers would exploit. Also only a third of Ladbrokes parent group customers are UK based.
England do tend to be over-rated but its not from patriotic reasons. I'd suggest a bigger reason is punters under-estimating the impact of physicality of the Premier League on extending that season into June and July, compared with a more relaxed season for the top players at Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern and PSG. Kane and Bellingham being our best two players so far an example of that, whilst the Prem based players picking up further knocks.
And we are not that overrated. 2 finals, lost to France in QF and Croatia SF in last 4 attempts.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
On Farage's £9m+ worth bearing in mind that in the event of a Reform Government Nige would find himself appointing vast numbers of new working peers to the House of Lords.
I remember reading how surprised a Tory chief whip (I forget which one) was at the number of soon-to-be ex-MPs canvassing for a place on the red benches.
Why not slip Nige a few thou on the off-chance if you're a Brexity type with a few quid to spare? Could prove a good investment if ermine is your thing.
This gives me an idea for a header.
The story is told of a whisky baron who gave £50,000 to the Conservatives to buy an earldom (pre-WW1).
Having chosen his title, he signed the cheque with his title and post-dated it Jan 1st next year.
If his title was not forthcoming, the cheque would bounce.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
LibDem success depends very much on local activists. If they aren't there, or they are lazy and complacent, then there is no success. There's not much that national leadership can do about that.
Activists can adopt a nearby constituency, then find, motivate and train activists in that target constituency. So we've spread like a rash in the South West and have spots all over the country that are are capable of expanding. It's bottom up.
I think if local Lib Dems "activists" are lazy or complacent that is worse than having no local activists. They act as bed blockers. Perhaps in your ward?
I'm fairly certain that we don't target based on Gails or Waitrose! But I accept there may be a correlation to do with average income.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
I have a LibDem borough councillor and a Green county councillor. Neither make any significant attempt to stay in touch except at election time, when we drown in their leaflets, which are all about their alleged personal attributes (you could reasonably describe the area as Waitrosey).. If there is any effort by either party to boost national standing, it's not visible here. Mind you, Labour and Tories don't get in touch much either - essentially between elections we don't hear from any of them unless we make the effort to seek out their websites. Down the road in Didcot, Reform won the seat, and are similarly invisible at the moment.
My part of North Durham Reform are very visible as the leader is a councillor in the ward next door and our local independent, who has done a fair bit in the ward, went Reform and he is still visible.
Labour are a lot more visible here now. For many years they took the area for granted as it always voted Labour however they do seem a little more engaged. I know Luke Akehurst is not to everyone’s taste but I feel he knows what needs to be done to re-engage people even if he’s from Oxford.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
On Farage's £9m+ worth bearing in mind that in the event of a Reform Government Nige would find himself appointing vast numbers of new working peers to the House of Lords.
I remember reading how surprised a Tory chief whip (I forget which one) was at the number of soon-to-be ex-MPs canvassing for a place on the red benches.
Why not slip Nige a few thou on the off-chance if you're a Brexity type with a few quid to spare? Could prove a good investment if ermine is your thing.
I think the public have already decided that Farage is willing to take personal gifts of a sort and in a manner unsuited to public office, thus disqualifying him from being PM, along with the ethnic stuff and the threat to deport hard working friends of this country.
So anyone thinking of giving him a further gift might do better to plank it on Cape Verde to win the World Cup.
A massive increase in spending on defence is necessary but not sufficient.
The whole MoD is set up to fight the last war, and several floors of staff need to be cleared out of Whitehall.
We need to stop throwing good money after bad on custom projects such as Ajax, instead buying off the shelf. We need to work with a variety of suppliers from different countries, including startups such as Anduril and several companies in Ukraine who are fighting the current war - not the big company who has a habit of offering well-paid non-jobs to MoD retirees.
We need to prioritise making ammunition for current weapons rather than looking at the next big expensive boondoggle, get the Navy actually able to field more than two small ships at any one time, recruit and train tens of thousands of men and officers, address key bottlenecks such as flying school instructors and cybersecurity specialists.
It’s been ignored for decades, probably since 1991, under governments of all colours, well now there’s a heightened threat and we’re not ready, and neither is most of Europe.
The question is who are we defending ourselves against.
Russia are losing the war against Ukraine. They are likely to have a change of leadership by the end of the year. Their conventional forces, tanks, artillery, ships, aircraft have all been destroyed. They frankly couldn't take on Poland, let alone get near to us. They do indulge in terrorism and threaten things such as sub sea cables. Whether the post Putin regime is likely to continue this is hard to guess at this stage but the smart thing is to assume yes.
Ukraine is likely to develop into a serious military power. Their drones are several generations ahead of competitors already and accelerating under the heat of war. But even if things cool between us it is hard to see how they become a threat to the UK.
The US is being massively weakened by the incompetence of Trump but it will remain a major force focused mainly on the Pacific and China. It is not obvious to me how we could or should play any part in those tensions.
NATO has become a meaningless and pointless bureaucracy without a purpose. It is time to replace it with something meaningful, something that will not include the US. What we need to do is shape that new entity and work out what our role is going to be within it. That will determine where the MOD should waste their next tranche of cash.
It's difficult to get your head around all this.
The authoritarian states (China, Russia, Iran, N Korea) are becoming ever more assertive but I doubt that they are keen on a hot war with "the West". Would much prefer to pick off countries one by one by undermining their political systems in order to gain leverage. Bring us to their level by destroying faith in traditional norms though the degeneration in political discourse and the normalisation of corruption. And through the election of anti-Western populists like Orban and Trump.
And then, there is the "grey" war - undisclosed acts of aggression against our infrastructure and institutions. Russia seems to be investing in this, despite Ukraine.
Planes, ships and tanks can seem a bit beside the point in all this, but I think we should be cautious about giving up one area where we are still very much ahead. The Chinese are certainly investing heavily in this area. And the Russians would certainly go after the Baltics given half a chance.
We need our options open. We are (just about) rich enough for that still.
There is obvious value in alliances, and NATO is for now what we have. Of course if the US carries on post Trump as it is now, then the value of their alliance has to be assumed, worst case, as nil.
Defence spending is for the most part exactly like insurance. If the worst doesn't happen then it's largely non productive expenditure - and that certainly applies to obsolescent conventional assets.
Spending on infrastructure and domestic manufacturing capacity is obviously of more value.
In any event, a larger security concern is the advanced manufacturing deficit in Europe. We don't, for example, have a single advanced chip plant for volume production either leading edge processors or memory, despite having much of the technology to develop them.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
Having closely analyzed the latest flight footage of Ukraine’s new FP-5 "Flamingo" missile, we can finally draw an obvious—and for the Kremlin, utterly humiliating—conclusion. Disregard any panic about some "hypersonic sci-fi wonder-weapon." The Flamingo is functionally a standard, subsonic, low-flying cruise missile running on technology rooted in the middle of the last century.
Let’s be real: on a radar screen, this thing likely lights up like a massive farm tractor. Powered by a jet engine that leaves a thermal heat signature the size of an aircraft carrier, it can be seen and heard from miles away by radar, binoculars, monocles, or even a basic pair of reading glasses. But here is the absolute peak of the thriller: Despite this flying tractor slowly cruising through sovereign Russian airspace for two entire hours, Russia's entire air defense matrix completely fails to intercept it!
When smaller Ukrainian drones strike deep, pro-Kremlin mouthpieces love to cope by claiming they are made of carbon fiber and invisible to Pantsir batteries. But a massive, ten-meter steel tube packed with a screaming jet engine? Even if we assume every operational Pantsir has been deployed to the frontlines or buried around Putin's private bunker in Valdai, where on earth is the Russian Air Force? Where are the interceptor jets explicitly designed for this exact mission?
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
Just when you think she's hitting the right tone (on for, example, the Nowak case) she goes and ruins it all by putting in a nasty and mean-spirited performance as she did at last week's PMQs. I do get that it plays well with her loyalists, but it's just not the kind of thing that's going to attract the non-committed that she needs if she's to progress in the polls.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
I have a LibDem borough councillor and a Green county councillor. Neither make any significant attempt to stay in touch except at election time, when we drown in their leaflets, which are all about their alleged personal attributes (you could reasonably describe the area as Waitrosey).. If there is any effort by either party to boost national standing, it's not visible here. Mind you, Labour and Tories don't get in touch much either - essentially between elections we don't hear from any of them unless we make the effort to seek out their websites. Down the road in Didcot, Reform won the seat, and are similarly invisible at the moment.
I think LibDem success is based on effective local activists. Your councilors don't sound to be very effective! Reform, on the other hand, are short on local activists but very good at social media that have a national reach. That's why LibDem success is very patchy and Reform is more geographically spread.
Ironically, patchy is more effective under FPTP than fairly evenly spread.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
On Farage's £9m+ worth bearing in mind that in the event of a Reform Government Nige would find himself appointing vast numbers of new working peers to the House of Lords.
I remember reading how surprised a Tory chief whip (I forget which one) was at the number of soon-to-be ex-MPs canvassing for a place on the red benches.
Why not slip Nige a few thou on the off-chance if you're a Brexity type with a few quid to spare? Could prove a good investment if ermine is your thing.
I think the public have already decided that Farage is willing to take personal gifts of a sort and in a manner unsuited to public office, thus disqualifying him from being PM, along with the ethnic stuff and the threat to deport hard working friends of this country.
So anyone thinking of giving him a further gift might do better to plank it on Cape Verde to win the World Cup.
The bolded bit is certainly true. Fur the rest, we have to rely on our electorate being more sensible than US voters. That's not yet 100% clear.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
I hope you are right.
So do I, but 2029 is quite a long way away for me with my current health issues but I simply want to see the end of Farage and Polanski as extremes always cause division
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
I have a LibDem borough councillor and a Green county councillor. Neither make any significant attempt to stay in touch except at election time, when we drown in their leaflets, which are all about their alleged personal attributes (you could reasonably describe the area as Waitrosey).. If there is any effort by either party to boost national standing, it's not visible here. Mind you, Labour and Tories don't get in touch much either - essentially between elections we don't hear from any of them unless we make the effort to seek out their websites. Down the road in Didcot, Reform won the seat, and are similarly invisible at the moment.
My part of North Durham Reform are very visible as the leader is a councillor in the ward next door and our local independent, who has done a fair bit in the ward, went Reform and he is still visible.
Labour are a lot more visible here now. For many years they took the area for granted as it always voted Labour however they do seem a little more engaged. I know Luke Akehurst is not to everyone’s taste but I feel he knows what needs to be done to re-engage people even if he’s from Oxford.
The Tories held our District and County Council seats when we moved here around 25 years ago and we heard very little from them. Then about 15 years ago a series of energetic 'sort of' Greens and Independents took over, and we heard a lot from them. Still do. However last year we had a District by-election which was won by Reform and we've heard very little from him, largely, I suspect, because he also sits on another Parish Council and on the County Council for yet another community.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
LibDem success depends very much on local activists. If they aren't there, or they are lazy and complacent, then there is no success. There's not much that national leadership can do about that.
Activists can adopt a nearby constituency, then find, motivate and train activists in that target constituency. So we've spread like a rash in the South West and have spots all over the country that are are capable of expanding. It's bottom up.
I think if local Lib Dems "activists" are lazy or complacent that is worse than having no local activists. They act as bed blockers. Perhaps in your ward?
I'm fairly certain that we don't target based on Gails or Waitrose! But I accept there may be a correlation to do with average income.
I think a good candidate too. A decade or so back the Lib Dem’s were really competitive in Durham City seat. However they chose a candidate who was enthusiastic, I’m sure, but didn’t really come over that well on TV or was able to go the next stage
They can get the activists out to get the vote in their council wards here and some they have held for a long time.
I certainly think now with Labour on the slide, Reform stalling and the Tories going nowhere there is a chance for a breakthrough. They don’t seem able to take it or build on what they have.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
Just when you think she's hitting the right tone (on for, example, the Nowak case) she goes and ruins it all by putting in a nasty and mean-spirited performance as she did at last week's PMQs. I do get that it plays well with her loyalists, but it's just not the kind of thing that's going to attract the non-committed that she needs if she's to progress in the polls.
I'm looking forward to the first Andy/Kemi PMQs in September.
I suspect that Burnham will get his people to research Badenoch's recent achievements. He'll start by saying "First of all Mr Speaker, I would like to congratulate the Leader of the Opposition on her success in ... ." Big genuine smile from him. And then actually answer her question and thank her for it. It will be a quite different dynamic. How will Kemi cope?
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
Spain have a nice draw, can ease themselves into it, build up Yamals fitness and not much stopping them to get to the semi final.
England look too chaotic at the back. Am on Argentina at 10s so happy, my 900-1 last 16 prediction got scuppered by South Korea.
Short on numbers now too. Not something I was expecting to write about a major tournament but if anything happens to Spence we are screwed.
Playing away at altitude is tougher than people understand. Even things like the ball flies faster so all the passing and shooting is different. If we get past Mexico we will have done very well.
Am on Argentina too. I was surprised how generous the odds were up until today when they have suddenly dropped to a more realistic 4/1. They have a very easy route through untl they come up against England or Mexico. I think the latter is more likely. England are a lay. They're a decent side but with obvious flaws and playing at altitude against the home Nation is likely to be too much for them.
If England win the next match, they need to get themselves to Mexico City as soon as possible to aclimatise. It’s 7,500’ high there, very thin air.
The good news is Harry Kane will be able to soar at least six feet higher than usual to get his head on a cross. We all remember Bob Beamon.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
LibDem success depends very much on local activists. If they aren't there, or they are lazy and complacent, then there is no success. There's not much that national leadership can do about that.
Activists can adopt a nearby constituency, then find, motivate and train activists in that target constituency. So we've spread like a rash in the South West and have spots all over the country that are are capable of expanding. It's bottom up.
I think if local Lib Dems "activists" are lazy or complacent that is worse than having no local activists. They act as bed blockers. Perhaps in your ward?
I'm fairly certain that we don't target based on Gails or Waitrose! But I accept there may be a correlation to do with average income.
I think a good candidate too. A decade or so back the Lib Dem’s were really competitive in Durham City seat. However they chose a candidate who was enthusiastic, I’m sure, but didn’t really come over that well on TV or was able to go the next stage
They can get the activists out to get the vote in their council wards here and some they have held for a long time.
I certainly think now with Labour on the slide, Reform stalling and the Tories going nowhere there is a chance for a breakthrough. They don’t seem able to take it or build on what they have.
Very much the same, I suspect, in Southend West. Very much a target seat twenty plus years ago, apparently an also ran nowadays.
Sad. I worked enthusiastically for the old Liberal Party in Castle Point, Southend West's neighbour, in the 70's & 80's. It all seems to have gone to pot now.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
Just when you think she's hitting the right tone (on for, example, the Nowak case) she goes and ruins it all by putting in a nasty and mean-spirited performance as she did at last week's PMQs. I do get that it plays well with her loyalists, but it's just not the kind of thing that's going to attract the non-committed that she needs if she's to progress in the polls.
I'm looking forward to the first Andy/Kemi PMQs in September.
I suspect that Burnham will get his people to research Badenoch's recent achievements. He'll start by saying "First of all Mr Speaker, I would like to congratulate the Leader of the Opposition on her success in ... ." Big genuine smile from him. And then actually answer her question and thank her for it. It will be a quite different dynamic. How will Kemi cope?
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
The LibDems are a coalition of liberals (centre right emphasis on freedom of individuals and markets) and social democrats (emphasis on social justice and mutual responsibility).
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
So why aren’t you ?
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
LibDem success depends very much on local activists. If they aren't there, or they are lazy and complacent, then there is no success. There's not much that national leadership can do about that.
Activists can adopt a nearby constituency, then find, motivate and train activists in that target constituency. So we've spread like a rash in the South West and have spots all over the country that are are capable of expanding. It's bottom up.
I think if local Lib Dems "activists" are lazy or complacent that is worse than having no local activists. They act as bed blockers. Perhaps in your ward?
I'm fairly certain that we don't target based on Gails or Waitrose! But I accept there may be a correlation to do with average income.
I think a good candidate too. A decade or so back the Lib Dem’s were really competitive in Durham City seat. However they chose a candidate who was enthusiastic, I’m sure, but didn’t really come over that well on TV or was able to go the next stage
They can get the activists out to get the vote in their council wards here and some they have held for a long time.
I certainly think now with Labour on the slide, Reform stalling and the Tories going nowhere there is a chance for a breakthrough. They don’t seem able to take it or build on what they have.
I take your point on having good candidates as well as enthusiastic ones. In many ways it is worse to get a poor candidate elected than not get elected at all. They do long term damage to their party and to their electorate cf many Reform Councillors.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
Just when you think she's hitting the right tone (on for, example, the Nowak case) she goes and ruins it all by putting in a nasty and mean-spirited performance as she did at last week's PMQs. I do get that it plays well with her loyalists, but it's just not the kind of thing that's going to attract the non-committed that she needs if she's to progress in the polls.
I'm looking forward to the first Andy/Kemi PMQs in September.
I suspect that Burnham will get his people to research Badenoch's recent achievements. He'll start by saying "First of all Mr Speaker, I would like to congratulate the Leader of the Opposition on her success in ... ." Big genuine smile from him. And then actually answer her question and thank her for it. It will be a quite different dynamic. How will Kemi cope?
My advice would be (as I think StillWaters suggested upthread) that she focuses relentlessly on public finances and Labour's failure to cut the welfare bill, and points out that they are the reasons we're all paying more and more taxes. I don't think Andy's charm would be enough to counter that.
Having closely analyzed the latest flight footage of Ukraine’s new FP-5 "Flamingo" missile, we can finally draw an obvious—and for the Kremlin, utterly humiliating—conclusion. Disregard any panic about some "hypersonic sci-fi wonder-weapon." The Flamingo is functionally a standard, subsonic, low-flying cruise missile running on technology rooted in the middle of the last century.
Let’s be real: on a radar screen, this thing likely lights up like a massive farm tractor. Powered by a jet engine that leaves a thermal heat signature the size of an aircraft carrier, it can be seen and heard from miles away by radar, binoculars, monocles, or even a basic pair of reading glasses. But here is the absolute peak of the thriller: Despite this flying tractor slowly cruising through sovereign Russian airspace for two entire hours, Russia's entire air defense matrix completely fails to intercept it!
When smaller Ukrainian drones strike deep, pro-Kremlin mouthpieces love to cope by claiming they are made of carbon fiber and invisible to Pantsir batteries. But a massive, ten-meter steel tube packed with a screaming jet engine? Even if we assume every operational Pantsir has been deployed to the frontlines or buried around Putin's private bunker in Valdai, where on earth is the Russian Air Force? Where are the interceptor jets explicitly designed for this exact mission?
A while back, we had video of a naval drone attack on a Russian military vessel.
The Russian ship was stationary, and the sea state mild. The Russian point defence systems were completely unable to target the drone - shooting wildly all over the place.
Given that the ship was supposed to have an elaborate, layered defence, it was quite remarkable.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
The notion that England stand a better chance than the four countries below them on that list is laughable. English punters betting with their hearts always makes England's odds tighter than they ought to be.
To be honest I struggle seeing England beating any of those in that list
England are 4th in the FIFA world rankings so 4th in the betting is not absurd, even if it is wrong.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
Spain have a nice draw, can ease themselves into it, build up Yamals fitness and not much stopping them to get to the semi final.
England look too chaotic at the back. Am on Argentina at 10s so happy, my 900-1 last 16 prediction got scuppered by South Korea.
Short on numbers now too. Not something I was expecting to write about a major tournament but if anything happens to Spence we are screwed.
Playing away at altitude is tougher than people understand. Even things like the ball flies faster so all the passing and shooting is different. If we get past Mexico we will have done very well.
Am on Argentina too. I was surprised how generous the odds were up until today when they have suddenly dropped to a more realistic 4/1. They have a very easy route through untl they come up against England or Mexico. I think the latter is more likely. England are a lay. They're a decent side but with obvious flaws and playing at altitude against the home Nation is likely to be too much for them.
If England win the next match, they need to get themselves to Mexico City as soon as possible to aclimatise. It’s 7,500’ high there, very thin air.
The good news is Harry Kane will be able to soar at least six feet higher than usual to get his head on a cross. We all remember Bob Beamon.
Some of us weren’t yet born when he nearly jumped out of the pit in 1968!
The amazing thing is that Mike Powell’s current record has stood since 1995, longer then Beamon’s did. Only one guy in nearly six decades has jumped longer than Beamon’s Mexico leap, despite the massive advances in tracks, shoes, sports medicine, and human performance training. It really was one of the greatest athletic achievements of all time.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Recent events have shown that there is nothing inevitable about Nigel's progression to Number 10. The Tories have staved off extinction, and Labour are busy reinventing themselves. And both mainstream parties will soon have confident characterful leaders who are much more tricky for Farage to contrast himself with than Starmer,
While I'm not expecting a significant Reform decline anytime soon, it's pretty clear that tactical voting and unease about Farage's suitability as PM when push comes to shove at a general election, means his chances are now decidedly slim. The talk about him standing down (surely very unlikely) is indicative of this.
I think Reform's standing in opinion polls is now partly based on people not giving the issue much thought. When it comes to by-elections they do, and it tends not to be Reform. If Farage quits it'll be a decisive turning point, and from Labour's viewpoint it's better if he unethusiastically stays on.
Interesting. You think Reform would do better under an "enthusiastic" Tice, Jenrick or Yusuf, than under an unenthusiastic Farage? I have to say that I don't see it.
I think Nick means the opposite. From Labour's electoral pov a Reform collapse would not be great because it's the Cons who'd mainly benefit. Better for Labour is that Reform slide back - behind Labour in the polls - but continue to be a serious player on the right of politics. This scenario is facilitated by an 'unenthusiastic' Farage carrying on rather than bowing out (which could trigger a collapse).
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
Spain have a nice draw, can ease themselves into it, build up Yamals fitness and not much stopping them to get to the semi final.
England look too chaotic at the back. Am on Argentina at 10s so happy, my 900-1 last 16 prediction got scuppered by South Korea.
Short on numbers now too. Not something I was expecting to write about a major tournament but if anything happens to Spence we are screwed.
Playing away at altitude is tougher than people understand. Even things like the ball flies faster so all the passing and shooting is different. If we get past Mexico we will have done very well.
Am on Argentina too. I was surprised how generous the odds were up until today when they have suddenly dropped to a more realistic 4/1. They have a very easy route through untl they come up against England or Mexico. I think the latter is more likely. England are a lay. They're a decent side but with obvious flaws and playing at altitude against the home Nation is likely to be too much for them.
If England win the next match, they need to get themselves to Mexico City as soon as possible to aclimatise. It’s 7,500’ high there, very thin air.
The good news is Harry Kane will be able to soar at least six feet higher than usual to get his head on a cross. We all remember Bob Beamon.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
The notion that England stand a better chance than the four countries below them on that list is laughable. English punters betting with their hearts always makes England's odds tighter than they ought to be.
A lot of fans do the opposite though - they never bet on their own team or they bet against them. The emotional hedge. Fuelled by the human nature tendency (in many) to overestimate the probability of what you fear happening, happening.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
Spain have a nice draw, can ease themselves into it, build up Yamals fitness and not much stopping them to get to the semi final.
England look too chaotic at the back. Am on Argentina at 10s so happy, my 900-1 last 16 prediction got scuppered by South Korea.
Short on numbers now too. Not something I was expecting to write about a major tournament but if anything happens to Spence we are screwed.
Playing away at altitude is tougher than people understand. Even things like the ball flies faster so all the passing and shooting is different. If we get past Mexico we will have done very well.
Am on Argentina too. I was surprised how generous the odds were up until today when they have suddenly dropped to a more realistic 4/1. They have a very easy route through untl they come up against England or Mexico. I think the latter is more likely. England are a lay. They're a decent side but with obvious flaws and playing at altitude against the home Nation is likely to be too much for them.
If England win the next match, they need to get themselves to Mexico City as soon as possible to aclimatise. It’s 7,500’ high there, very thin air.
The good news is Harry Kane will be able to soar at least six feet higher than usual to get his head on a cross. We all remember Bob Beamon.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
Spain have a nice draw, can ease themselves into it, build up Yamals fitness and not much stopping them to get to the semi final.
England look too chaotic at the back. Am on Argentina at 10s so happy, my 900-1 last 16 prediction got scuppered by South Korea.
Short on numbers now too. Not something I was expecting to write about a major tournament but if anything happens to Spence we are screwed.
Playing away at altitude is tougher than people understand. Even things like the ball flies faster so all the passing and shooting is different. If we get past Mexico we will have done very well.
Am on Argentina too. I was surprised how generous the odds were up until today when they have suddenly dropped to a more realistic 4/1. They have a very easy route through untl they come up against England or Mexico. I think the latter is more likely. England are a lay. They're a decent side but with obvious flaws and playing at altitude against the home Nation is likely to be too much for them.
If England win the next match, they need to get themselves to Mexico City as soon as possible to aclimatise. It’s 7,500’ high there, very thin air.
The good news is Harry Kane will be able to soar at least six feet higher than usual to get his head on a cross. We all remember Bob Beamon.
And Dick Fosbury.
Ah yes. Two iconic moments in sport there. Beamon and Fosbury. Then the Carlos and Smith black power protest. And David Hemery's gold in the 400m hurdles. Mex68. What an Olympics that was.
David Coleman's notorious commentary:
"And he's done it. It's Hemery gold, Hennige the silver, and who cares about the bronze"
The last bit routinely clipped now - because the bronze was won in a massive personal best by Sheffield's John Sherwood.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
The notion that England stand a better chance than the four countries below them on that list is laughable. English punters betting with their hearts always makes England's odds tighter than they ought to be.
A lot of fans do the opposite though - they never bet on their own team or they bet against them. The emotional hedge. Fuelled by the human nature tendency (in many) to overestimate the probability of what you fear happening, happening.
I know multiple people who bet against their team or a 0-0 draw on the basis that it will give them something to celebrate if the match doesn’t go their way or is as dull as ditchwater
My guess is the right unites in 2029/30 post the next GE - the Tories and Reform need to figure out who will be top and who will be bottom before a pact/merger can be worth agreeing, whereas at the moment Reform still think they'll win it all and the Tories have too many MPs over Reform to justify bending over as Reform (and Jacob Rees-Mogg) wish.
The problem with a top and bottom is by tradition the top does the shafting. And the bottom just gets buggered.
So if we get into the last 16 it’s likely Mexico in their fortress. Then it be likely Brazil.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
Because Congo followed by Mexico is considerably easier than Portugal followed Spain?
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
By the time you’re in the WC quarter-finals there’s no easy matches. Congo’s clearly earlier than Portugual for the R32 match though.
Current World Cup betting has England joint-3rd best with Spain:-
7/2 France 4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil 16/1 Netherlands 20/1 Germany
The notion that England stand a better chance than the four countries below them on that list is laughable. English punters betting with their hearts always makes England's odds tighter than they ought to be.
A lot of fans do the opposite though - they never bet on their own team or they bet against them. The emotional hedge. Fuelled by the human nature tendency (in many) to overestimate the probability of what you fear happening, happening.
I know multiple people who bet against their team or a 0-0 draw on the basis that it will give them something to celebrate if the match doesn’t go their way or is as dull as ditchwater
Yes. It's something I'm generally prone to. As a punter I have to fight that bias - betting against what I want - much harder than the 'wishful thinking' opposite.
Re header: The worst thing the Tories could do is deal with Reform. Kemi really is making some steps forward electorally. Small steps, but progress nonetheless. The Tories still do have problems, but they're on the right track, and I'm thinking about rejoining the party.
Deal with Reform? Then the above is all out of the window. Both the Tories and Reform would destroy themselves, and give a free pass to the socialist workers state of Post-IMF2-Britain.
If Reform and Conservative get together then masses of Reform will go to Restore.
A not inconsiderable number of Tories might go elsewhere too. Makerfield recontacts suggest GE Tories broke a surpisingly small margin for Kenyon over Burnham.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
Quite remarkable that even excluding short money the opposition still received more than the government.
Unless the opposition looks like it is inevitably going to win, then surely the influence and donations typically head more to the party in power?
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
Quite remarkable that even excluding short money the opposition still received more than the government.
Unless the opposition looks like it is inevitably going to win, then surely the influence and donations typically head more to the party in power?
We’re going to have two elections in a row with massive swings against the incumbents.
Good afternoon everyone and thanks for the header @TSE . I'll have a look at the article.
Do we know whom is the Conservative MP? What exactly is a "hard left coalition with the Lib Dems" and how does one create one anywhere else other than in fairyland?
I think this will only potentially work when Farage goes pop, or Kemi stops making the same mistake as SKS - choosing to fight on Farage's ground, rather than deciding what the Conservative Party wants to be and focus on being that.
I love the idea of a hard left coalition including the LibDems.
To the left they are hated for facilitating hard right Cameron, to the right they are hated for being hard left Labour bootlickers.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
Not being Tory or Labour or indeed Reform or Green and anti Brexit, a niche market for the LDs
I can't see that anyone has mentioned this poll and article. Of course there won't be a pact, a couple of excitables see Reform stutter and start looking for a way around it.
Should they do a deal: 78% No. 22% Yes. Who is better at holding Labour to account: Badenoch 41%, Farage 30%.
Sounds like the nutty right wing of the Tories are getting worried that Reform’s bloom is fading. Now would be wrong time to do a deal.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
Good morning
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
Did you not read TSE's point about the party funders, though, Big_G. If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
Kemi has attracted over £6,063,7111 million in Q1 to Farage £9,936.393
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
That’s utterly misleading.
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
It anyway misses the point, which is not what donors are doing now, but what they might do over the next couple of years.
I would just say on that I do expect Kemi to win that one as Farage's star fades
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
I hope you are right.
So do I, but 2029 is quite a long way away for me with my current health issues but I simply want to see the end of Farage and Polanski as extremes always cause division
Enough of that please. Here's to you getting your telegram.
Trivia question, which I can't work out the answer to. When was the last time a back-bench MP (or Lord) was appointed Prime Minister? In Government if you like, or in general if you assume that LOTO and shadow ministers are front-bench posts
You must be suffering from Long Covid if you can't remember Long Covid sufferer Boris, who resigned from the Cabinet in order to challenger Theresa May.
There was a gap of around a year between him resigning from the cabinet and becoming PM.
54 weeks, to be exact, although the general thrust of the comment is correct.
However, the most recent example was Sunak.
Yes, i keep on repressing the Liz Truss interregnum.
My guess is the right unites in 2029/30 post the next GE - the Tories and Reform need to figure out who will be top and who will be bottom before a pact/merger can be worth agreeing, whereas at the moment Reform still think they'll win it all and the Tories have too many MPs over Reform to justify bending over as Reform (and Jacob Rees-Mogg) wish.
That will depend entirely on the next general election result. If Reform win more seats than the Tories and that remains the same at the general election after as well, Reform would likely take over the Tories within a decade unless we get PR. If however the Tories win more seats than Reform still at the next general election, then most likely the Tories would reabsorb most of Reform, perhaps if Labour are re elected under Jacob Rees Mogg after Kemi and Farage resignations with some Reform hardliners going Restore
Trivia question, which I can't work out the answer to. When was the last time a back-bench MP (or Lord) was appointed Prime Minister? In Government if you like, or in general if you assume that LOTO and shadow ministers are front-bench posts
You must be suffering from Long Covid if you can't remember Long Covid sufferer Boris, who resigned from the Cabinet in order to challenger Theresa May.
There was a gap of around a year between him resigning from the cabinet and becoming PM.
54 weeks, to be exact, although the general thrust of the comment is correct.
However, the most recent example was Sunak.
Yes, i keep on repressing the Liz Truss interregnum.
Sky just showing the rescue of an 11 year old boy burried in the rubble in the Venezeula earthquake for 3 days and such raw emotion and joy by everyone at a life saved
Don't really see why Badenoch would or should make any deals if there's any truth to that rumour from the previous thread about Farage not leading Reform into the next election.
Raw numbers are meaningless anyway. The relevant metric is the teacher/pupil ratio, and that might be being maintained given the dwindling numbers.
However, she’s hardly putting anything into teacher training. In fact, her plans are to restrict it further (although she may not realise it).
Edit - it is worth pointing out (much though I hate to defend Phillipson) that she is talking about teachers in secondary schools whereas the community note is for teachers in all settings, which would include a contraction in the primary sector.
Hard for Tories/Reform to agree who is the senior partner in a pact.
Only way to do it may be an informal pact where the Tories don't campaign too hard in redwall seats like Makerfield and Barnsley and Stoke and Merthyr Tydfil which are traditionally Labour and where the Tories are weaker. In return, Reform don't campaign too hard in Scottish seats like Aberdeen South and London marginal seats and LD seats the Tories are targeting in the South where Reform are weak
Raw numbers are meaningless anyway. The relevant metric is the teacher/pupil ratio, and that might be being maintained given the dwindling numbers.
However, she’s hardly putting anything into teacher training. In fact, her plans are to restrict it further (although she may not realise it).
Edit - it is worth pointing out (much though I hate to defend Phillipson) that she is talking about teachers in secondary schools whereas the community note is for teachers in all settings, which would include a contraction in the primary sector.
So she could have massively improved the pupil/teacher ratio, but instead decided to bring 100,000 pupils from the private sector into the public sector in a disorganised manner, as so many private schools closed due to the VAT charge on fees.
Hard for Tories/Reform to agree who is the senior partner in a pact.
Only way to do it may be an informal pact where the Tories don't campaign too hard in redwall seats like Makerfield and Barnsley and Stoke and Merthyr Tydfil which are traditionally Labour and where the Tories are weaker. In return, Reform don't campaign too hard in Scottish seats like Aberdeen South and London marginal seats and LD seats the Tories are targeting in the South where Reform are weak
Not much of a pact really? That's just being strategic with your efforts. Not that long ago that Farage didn't campaign in Tory seats.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
Why would you want to make it palatable? Just don't eat it.
Sky just showing the rescue of an 11 year old boy burried in the rubble in the Venezeula earthquake for 3 days and such raw emotion and joy by everyone at a life saved
Raw numbers are meaningless anyway. The relevant metric is the teacher/pupil ratio, and that might be being maintained given the dwindling numbers.
However, she’s hardly putting anything into teacher training. In fact, her plans are to restrict it further (although she may not realise it).
Edit - it is worth pointing out (much though I hate to defend Phillipson) that she is talking about teachers in secondary schools whereas the community note is for teachers in all settings, which would include a contraction in the primary sector.
Both sides seem to be carefully caveating their numbers but it is not just about pupil/teacher ratios because the justification of VAT on public school fees was to pay for more teachers in state schools.
As to what the government should do, imo the easiest way to raise standards is to keep schools open even as pupil numbers fall, leading to smaller class sizes. It would not even involve more spending – just forgoing any notional income from selling the site off for posh flats.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
Why would you want to make it palatable? Just don't eat it.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
Why would you want to make it palatable? Just don't eat it.
Raw numbers are meaningless anyway. The relevant metric is the teacher/pupil ratio, and that might be being maintained given the dwindling numbers.
However, she’s hardly putting anything into teacher training. In fact, her plans are to restrict it further (although she may not realise it).
Edit - it is worth pointing out (much though I hate to defend Phillipson) that she is talking about teachers in secondary schools whereas the community note is for teachers in all settings, which would include a contraction in the primary sector.
So she could have massively improved the pupil/teacher ratio, but instead decided to bring 100,000 pupils from the private sector into the public sector in a disorganised manner, as so many private schools closed due to the VAT charge on fees.
That warrants a Community Note of its own. The IFS estimate 20-40k pupils leaving the private sector, not 100k. The number of school closures is debated, but one of the highest quoted figures is >100. However, the average number of schools that close each year is already 80.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
Why would you want to make it palatable? Just don't eat it.
Raw numbers are meaningless anyway. The relevant metric is the teacher/pupil ratio, and that might be being maintained given the dwindling numbers.
However, she’s hardly putting anything into teacher training. In fact, her plans are to restrict it further (although she may not realise it).
Edit - it is worth pointing out (much though I hate to defend Phillipson) that she is talking about teachers in secondary schools whereas the community note is for teachers in all settings, which would include a contraction in the primary sector.
So she could have massively improved the pupil/teacher ratio, but instead decided to bring 100,000 pupils from the private sector into the public sector in a disorganised manner, as so many private schools closed due to the VAT charge on fees.
Don't know where you've got 100,000 from, do you? Even the Independent Schools Council put it at around 30,000, while the DfE put it at 22,000. And, of course, we can't be at all sure that all of those are because of VAT.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
Why would you want to make it palatable? Just don't eat it.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
It's a decent carrier for Szechuan pepper or other spicy things, too.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
It's a decent carrier for Szechuan pepper or other spicy things, too.
That looks way too thick to me. Thinner slices make the tofu texture, which puts off a lot of people, disappear.
This is a video from Chris Spargo with the claim "The Prime Minister resigned after meeting me". It may be true, but it also clearly fun self-puffery.
Chris Spargo is one of those vloggers of idiosyncracies and things we may be aware of, but have not followed up. His last one I saw was about why a particular design of litter bin is used everywhere in the UK.
Last year there was an event to involve Youtubers and others in engagement with the Government, and I am surmising that his invite to the Paris Summit was a follow-on.
He does quite a decent job of explaining and demystifying the politics, to what I assume is a less politically focussed audience than say us. It's longish, at 40 minutes.
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
It's a decent carrier for Szechuan pepper or other spicy things, too.
That looks way too thick to me. Thinner slices make the tofu texture, which puts off a lot of people, disappear.
Have you tried harder drier tofu, rather than the smooth "silken" type? It tastes of something, plus the texture is better.
Raw numbers are meaningless anyway. The relevant metric is the teacher/pupil ratio, and that might be being maintained given the dwindling numbers.
However, she’s hardly putting anything into teacher training. In fact, her plans are to restrict it further (although she may not realise it).
Edit - it is worth pointing out (much though I hate to defend Phillipson) that she is talking about teachers in secondary schools whereas the community note is for teachers in all settings, which would include a contraction in the primary sector.
So she could have massively improved the pupil/teacher ratio, but instead decided to bring 100,000 pupils from the private sector into the public sector in a disorganised manner, as so many private schools closed due to the VAT charge on fees.
Don't know where you've got 100,000 from, do you? Even the Independent Schools Council put it at around 30,000, while the DfE put it at 22,000. And, of course, we can't be at all sure that all of those are because of VAT.
So far, I don't think any private schools have closed solely because of VAT. It gave the final push to some already on very shaky ground - Malvern St James, for example, seems to have suffered from it. As did that one up in Bangor.
But it wasn't, for example, responsible for the collapse of Abbotsholme, where I understand investigations are now beginning (rather belatedly and far too late to save the school or the teachers' jobs, although it's conceivable they might get the money they're owed). And there are some very funny rumours circulating about the reasons for the implosion of Rendcomb.
The true litmus test will be about two years from now as changes in key stage start feeding through the system. If we start to see a big contraction in numbers then, we'll have reason to think that VAT on school fees is having a negative effect.
But I agree with @DecrepiterJohnL about keeping smaller schools open and cutting class sizes, although as funding is per head it wouldn't be quite as simple as 'we're spending the same to educate fewer children.'
Hard for Tories/Reform to agree who is the senior partner in a pact.
Only way to do it may be an informal pact where the Tories don't campaign too hard in redwall seats like Makerfield and Barnsley and Stoke and Merthyr Tydfil which are traditionally Labour and where the Tories are weaker. In return, Reform don't campaign too hard in Scottish seats like Aberdeen South and London marginal seats and LD seats the Tories are targeting in the South where Reform are weak
Not much of a pact really? That's just being strategic with your efforts. Not that long ago that Farage didn't campaign in Tory seats.
Yet not in the Tory target seats Boris needed to get a majority and Brexit done in 2019 where the Brexit party still stood candidates
Quite a story. There are quite a few different anti-government Russian groups prepared to do damage to the Russian war machine.
Black Spark, an underground resistance movement operating inside Russia in coordination with Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, claimed its agents spent months undercover inside the Shahed drone production facility in Alabuga. The group said it exfiltrated server data on Geran-2 and Geran-3 production and sabotaged the UAV assembly process from within.
"He needed a lot of persuading to apply because he felt that as a working-class boy, going off to Cambridge wasn't for him. He didn't believe in himself, but he did it, and the rest is history."
These are the words of former English teacher Stephen Harrington on the advice he gave to a 16-year-old Andy Burnham in 1986 at St Aelred's Catholic High School in Newton-Le-Willows, Merseyside.
The man, now widely tipped to win any Labour leadership contest and become prime minister, has credited his former teacher with boosting his confidence at that pivotal time in his life.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2eymr3xrewo
My guess is the right unites in 2029/30 post the next GE - the Tories and Reform need to figure out who will be top and who will be bottom before a pact/merger can be worth agreeing, whereas at the moment Reform still think they'll win it all and the Tories have too many MPs over Reform to justify bending over as Reform (and Jacob Rees-Mogg) wish.
That will depend entirely on the next general election result. If Reform win more seats than the Tories and that remains the same at the general election after as well, Reform would likely take over the Tories within a decade unless we get PR. If however the Tories win more seats than Reform still at the next general election, then most likely the Tories would reabsorb most of Reform, perhaps if Labour are re elected under Jacob Rees Mogg after Kemi and Farage resignations with some Reform hardliners going Restore
"...if Labour are re elected under Jacob Rees Mogg..."
And people thought Wes Streeting was too far to the right to lead Labour!
Culinary discovery of the day - it's is possible to make raw tofu more than palatable. Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
Why would you want to make it palatable? Just don't eat it.
Because it's an excellent dietary staple.
No it isn't. It's doubtful it's even food.
We can safely disregard you on diet.
What is it about a congealed lump of chemically coagulated soy that you think is so worthwhile in your diet that you're prepared to jump through hoops to convince your tastebuds that it's worth eating?
My guess is the right unites in 2029/30 post the next GE - the Tories and Reform need to figure out who will be top and who will be bottom before a pact/merger can be worth agreeing, whereas at the moment Reform still think they'll win it all and the Tories have too many MPs over Reform to justify bending over as Reform (and Jacob Rees-Mogg) wish.
That will depend entirely on the next general election result. If Reform win more seats than the Tories and that remains the same at the general election after as well, Reform would likely take over the Tories within a decade unless we get PR. If however the Tories win more seats than Reform still at the next general election, then most likely the Tories would reabsorb most of Reform, perhaps if Labour are re elected under Jacob Rees Mogg after Kemi and Farage resignations with some Reform hardliners going Restore
"...if Labour are re elected under Jacob Rees Mogg..."
And people thought Wes Streeting was too far to the right to lead Labour!
Comments
Of the £6 million some £1.8 million is from Short Money whereas Labour only received £52k in public funds.
Excluding public funds the Tories and Labour received nearly the same from donors. £4.2 million versus £4 million.
I’m in the north East.
Durham council was until recently run by a coalition and led by a Lib Dem.
The Lib Dem’s have always had areas of strength in Newcastle, Durham and Gateshead. I know some of the Lib Dem councillors here are very well regarded, like Craig Martin in North Lodge.
Yet they make no effort at all, that I can see, to build on that.
My ward used to be Lib Dem, we had two councillors. Neither made much effort.
I get the impression the Lib Dem’s are really focussed on the Gail’s/Waitrose part of the country under the current leadership.
I did say yesterday that Burnham's success as Mayor and his desire to replicate that through devolution is laudable but my fear is Burnham by thinking at Mayor level and saying he will run no 10 part time from the north shows a degree of naivety that does make me worry he hasn't started to realise just what he is taking on
There is a huge jump from mayor to PM and I fear he is not ready for the 24/7 exposure that will happen to him as every journalist seeks their 'gotcha'
The public are disenchanted, angry, fearful, and hugely cynical of politicians and whilst Burnham may get a honeymoon period, is he and the party ready for 'events' that so quickly undermine modern day PMs ?
I reserve my judgment.
I like Burnham, but fear expectations on him may be unrealistic
Firstly, elections are generally won from the centre and Reform's insurgency is not evidence that this rule will change. what this means is twofold; Reform can't and won't win an election, a fact confirmed by recent travails for Farage, and that the centrist opposition to Reform is greater than their hostility to Labour/LD etc when push comes to shove.
Secondly, for a substantial proportion of the electorate, identifying with Reform is not only wrong, but a 'tainting' wrong - one which puts a stain on all the things you may get right. So many voters who may prefer a right of centre economic/fiscal/jobs/tax policy will not vote for a right of centre movement that plans or threatens to remove ILR from and potentially deport your doctor or stirs up race hatred.
The authoritarian states (China, Russia, Iran, N Korea) are becoming ever more assertive but I doubt that they are keen on a hot war with "the West". Would much prefer to pick off countries one by one by undermining their political systems in order to gain leverage. Bring us to their level by destroying faith in traditional norms though the degeneration in political discourse and the normalisation of corruption. And through the election of anti-Western populists like Orban and Trump.
And then, there is the "grey" war - undisclosed acts of aggression against our infrastructure and institutions. Russia seems to be investing in this, despite Ukraine.
Planes, ships and tanks can seem a bit beside the point in all this, but I think we should be cautious about giving up one area where we are still very much ahead. The Chinese are certainly investing heavily in this area. And the Russians would certainly go after the Baltics given half a chance.
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/media-centre/political-parties-accept-ps247m-donations-q1-2026
I remember reading how surprised a Tory chief whip (I forget which one) was at the number of soon-to-be ex-MPs canvassing for a place on the red benches.
Why not slip Nige a few thou on the off-chance if you're a Brexity type with a few quid to spare? Could prove a good investment if ermine is your thing.
I would have thought that even those who are not persuaded by Kemi would want her to win the battle and put reform in their box
It's not blind faith for me, I just see an improving politician and my instinct says she and Burnham will be the focus of politics over the next 3 years, not least because she has the position of the official opposition no matter what reform characters say
England do tend to be over-rated but its not from patriotic reasons. I'd suggest a bigger reason is punters under-estimating the impact of physicality of the Premier League on extending that season into June and July, compared with a more relaxed season for the top players at Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern and PSG. Kane and Bellingham being our best two players so far an example of that, whilst the Prem based players picking up further knocks.
And we are not that overrated. 2 finals, lost to France in QF and Croatia SF in last 4 attempts.
Having chosen his title, he signed the cheque with his title and post-dated it Jan 1st next year.
If his title was not forthcoming, the cheque would bounce.
Activists can adopt a nearby constituency, then find, motivate and train activists in that target constituency.
So we've spread like a rash in the South West and have spots all over the country that are are capable of expanding. It's bottom up.
I think if local Lib Dems "activists" are lazy or complacent that is worse than having no local activists. They act as bed blockers. Perhaps in your ward?
I'm fairly certain that we don't target based on Gails or Waitrose! But I accept there may be a correlation to do with average income.
Labour are a lot more visible here now. For many years they took the area for granted as it always voted Labour however they do seem a little more engaged. I know Luke Akehurst is not to everyone’s taste but I feel he knows what needs to be done to re-engage people even if he’s from Oxford.
disqualifying him from being PM, along with the ethnic stuff and the threat to deport hard working friends of this country.
So anyone thinking of giving him a further gift might do better to plank it on Cape Verde to win the World Cup.
Defence spending is for the most part exactly like insurance. If the worst doesn't happen then it's largely non productive expenditure - and that certainly applies to obsolescent conventional assets.
Spending on infrastructure and domestic manufacturing capacity is obviously of more value.
In any event, a larger security concern is the advanced manufacturing deficit in Europe.
We don't, for example, have a single advanced chip plant for volume production either leading edge processors or memory, despite having much of the technology to develop them.
https://x.com/jalle51/status/2071138371347378582
Having closely analyzed the latest flight footage of Ukraine’s new FP-5 "Flamingo" missile, we can finally draw an obvious—and for the Kremlin, utterly humiliating—conclusion. Disregard any panic about some "hypersonic sci-fi wonder-weapon." The Flamingo is functionally a standard, subsonic, low-flying cruise missile running on technology rooted in the middle of the last century.
Let’s be real: on a radar screen, this thing likely lights up like a massive farm tractor. Powered by a jet engine that leaves a thermal heat signature the size of an aircraft carrier, it can be seen and heard from miles away by radar, binoculars, monocles, or even a basic pair of reading glasses. But here is the absolute peak of the thriller: Despite this flying tractor slowly cruising through sovereign Russian airspace for two entire hours, Russia's entire air defense matrix completely fails to intercept it!
When smaller Ukrainian drones strike deep, pro-Kremlin mouthpieces love to cope by claiming they are made of carbon fiber and invisible to Pantsir batteries. But a massive, ten-meter steel tube packed with a screaming jet engine? Even if we assume every operational Pantsir has been deployed to the frontlines or buried around Putin's private bunker in Valdai, where on earth is the Russian Air Force? Where are the interceptor jets explicitly designed for this exact mission?
Reform, on the other hand, are short on local activists but very good at social media that have a national reach. That's why LibDem success is very patchy and Reform is more geographically spread.
Ironically, patchy is more effective under FPTP than fairly evenly spread.
Fur the rest, we have to rely on our electorate being more sensible than US voters. That's not yet 100% clear.
They can get the activists out to get the vote in their council wards here and some they have held for a long time.
I certainly think now with Labour on the slide, Reform stalling and the Tories going nowhere there is a chance for a breakthrough. They don’t seem able to take it or build on what they have.
https://x.com/realjakebroe/status/2071086904075075635
I suspect that Burnham will get his people to research Badenoch's recent achievements.
He'll start by saying "First of all Mr Speaker, I would like to congratulate the Leader of the Opposition on her success in ... ." Big genuine smile from him. And then actually answer her question and thank her for it. It will be a quite different dynamic. How will Kemi cope?
Sad. I worked enthusiastically for the old Liberal Party in Castle Point, Southend West's neighbour, in the 70's & 80's. It all seems to have gone to pot now.
In many ways it is worse to get a poor candidate elected than not get elected at all.
They do long term damage to their party and to their electorate cf many Reform Councillors.
The Russian ship was stationary, and the sea state mild. The Russian point defence systems were completely unable to target the drone - shooting wildly all over the place.
Given that the ship was supposed to have an elaborate, layered defence, it was quite remarkable.
The amazing thing is that Mike Powell’s current record has stood since 1995, longer then Beamon’s did. Only one guy in nearly six decades has jumped longer than Beamon’s Mexico leap, despite the massive advances in tracks, shoes, sports medicine, and human performance training. It really was one of the greatest athletic achievements of all time.
David Coleman's notorious commentary:
"And he's done it. It's Hemery gold, Hennige the silver, and who cares about the bronze"
The last bit routinely clipped now - because the bronze was won in a massive personal best by Sheffield's John Sherwood.
Deal with Reform? Then the above is all out of the window. Both the Tories and Reform would destroy themselves, and give a free pass to the socialist workers state of Post-IMF2-Britain.
Makerfield recontacts suggest GE Tories broke a surpisingly small margin for Kenyon over Burnham.
Unless the opposition looks like it is inevitably going to win, then surely the influence and donations typically head more to the party in power?
Pleased for Bashir though.
Do we know whom is the Conservative MP? What exactly is a "hard left coalition with the Lib Dems" and how does one create one anywhere else other than in fairyland?
I think this will only potentially work when Farage goes pop, or Kemi stops making the same mistake as SKS - choosing to fight on Farage's ground, rather than deciding what the Conservative Party wants to be and focus on being that.
Should they do a deal: 78% No. 22% Yes. Who is better at holding Labour to account: Badenoch 41%, Farage 30%.
https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15935359/Voters-support-Badenoch-pledge-deal-Farage.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=social-twitter_mailonline
https://x.com/bphillipsonmp/status/2069759164209848819
No, SoS, the number of teachers went down not up.
However, she’s hardly putting anything into teacher training. In fact, her plans are to restrict it further (although she may not realise it).
Edit - it is worth pointing out (much though I hate to defend Phillipson) that she is talking about teachers in secondary schools whereas the community note is for teachers in all settings, which would include a contraction in the primary sector.
That's just being strategic with your efforts.
Not that long ago that Farage didn't campaign in Tory seats.
Served as thinly sliced sashimi with a dipping sauce of virgin olive oil and good double fermented soy sauce, it is surprisingly tasty, as the utter blandness complements the amazing umami of the soy.
Add garnishes to taste.
As to what the government should do, imo the easiest way to raise standards is to keep schools open even as pupil numbers fall, leading to smaller class sizes. It would not even involve more spending – just forgoing any notional income from selling the site off for posh flats.
It's a decent carrier for Szechuan pepper or other spicy things, too.
Thinner slices make the tofu texture, which puts off a lot of people, disappear.
Chris Spargo is one of those vloggers of idiosyncracies and things we may be aware of, but have not followed up. His last one I saw was about why a particular design of litter bin is used everywhere in the UK.
Last year there was an event to involve Youtubers and others in engagement with the Government, and I am surmising that his invite to the Paris Summit was a follow-on.
He does quite a decent job of explaining and demystifying the politics, to what I assume is a less politically focussed audience than say us. It's longish, at 40 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T59a3maXZ0
https://www.seriouseats.com/shopping-cooking-guide-different-tofu-types
https://x.com/PolitlcsGlobal/status/2071184981246763041?s=20
But it wasn't, for example, responsible for the collapse of Abbotsholme, where I understand investigations are now beginning (rather belatedly and far too late to save the school or the teachers' jobs, although it's conceivable they might get the money they're owed). And there are some very funny rumours circulating about the reasons for the implosion of Rendcomb.
The true litmus test will be about two years from now as changes in key stage start feeding through the system. If we start to see a big contraction in numbers then, we'll have reason to think that VAT on school fees is having a negative effect.
But I agree with @DecrepiterJohnL about keeping smaller schools open and cutting class sizes, although as funding is per head it wouldn't be quite as simple as 'we're spending the same to educate fewer children.'
Black Spark, an underground resistance movement operating inside Russia in coordination with Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, claimed its agents spent months undercover inside the Shahed drone production facility in Alabuga. The group said it exfiltrated server data on Geran-2 and Geran-3 production and sabotaged the UAV assembly process from within.
https://t.me/noel_reports/48516
The shahed drone factory is about 1,200km from Ukraine.
These are the words of former English teacher Stephen Harrington on the advice he gave to a 16-year-old Andy Burnham in 1986 at St Aelred's Catholic High School in Newton-Le-Willows, Merseyside.
The man, now widely tipped to win any Labour leadership contest and become prime minister, has credited his former teacher with boosting his confidence at that pivotal time in his life.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2eymr3xrewo
And people thought Wes Streeting was too far to the right to lead Labour!
(And it should be Labour is, BTW.)