Will the right unite? – politicalbetting.com
Will the right unite? – politicalbetting.com
Last month I wrote about how talk about electoral pacts would soon appear and today’s Sunday Telegraph has the story above and Mrs Badenoch’s strategy might not survive first contact with reality
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Granted Labour will have a new leader but Farage now has a question he can't answer so is avoiding all press interviews and Reform are finding it difficult to win elections. So why are people trying to push through an electoral pact 2 years before the next election when Reform may have completely imploded by the end.
I find a hard left coalition with the LibDems amusing.
There does need to be a rethink about defence procurement - the desire for tailored products isn’t that helpful but the argument that the defence industry uses is that it creates future jobs and tax revenues from exports - it’s an argument that plays well with the treasury as allows them to offset the costs.
Another issue is that a lot of military capabilities aren’t talked about. For example, Dragonfire has moved from a prototype to a naval production version in 10 years (expected first installation next year). I suspect the land based version has been available for some time, but not highlighted publicly.
Thirdly it’s not just about kit. We need resilience - supply chain strengthening (for example) with chip manufacturing. But when we forced Nexperia (China) to sell Newport why did we let it go to a US buyer vs insisting on UK ownership? We didn’t care about the price that Nexperia achieved.
Finally we need a lot more investment in the less glamorous side of the MoD - training, recruitment, repairs, servicing capabilities, etc. A lot of the MoD spending should be about having the capacity to scale up quickly when needed. I don’t care if a naval dockyard, for example, runs at 60% capacity - but on Treasury models that’s unbelievable inefficient. We need to find a way to value strategic resilience which is currently missing from the analysis.
And I’m not sure that a deal should be done anyway. It would retoxify the Tory brand and sure as shit would unite the left.
The Tories need to courage of their convictions: sound money, disciplined fiscal policy, socially tolerant, controlled immigration. Focus on getting the the basics right of running the country.
So tell me again how this is a better route than finishing second?
https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15916521/Kemi-Farage-split-Makerfield-Burnham.html
And is now costing them dearly.
The question may be coming from panicking reform supporters who must be really worried just how long Farage will remain in the party
Kemi is right to reject all and any suggestions to unite the right and continue her progress in leading the conservatives into GE29 and ignore reform/restore
For the Tories losing the next general election to Burnham Labour would be disappointing but as long as they stay second and beat Reform they will live to fight another day. If however the Tories are beaten by Reform too and cease to be the main party of the right then that could be existential for the Tories unless we get PR and see the party go extinct or taken over by Reform within a decade unless swiftly reversed
The Americans quietly cancelled some sanctions on Russian businessmen and a couple of Turkish businesses involved in supplying the Russian military. Trump might have said a few friendly things about Ukraine, but he's still providing practical assistance to Russia.
https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/2071105563153584145
Yes our prospective quarter finals is tough if we get there. But that's offset by a potentially easier semi final relative to the other half of the draw.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/rough-sleeping-no-longer-a-crime-as-vagrancy-act-repealed
Yet another policy announced outside parliament as Starmer's government continues its campaign to give the Speaker an aneurism.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ewkdgw9ro
Could this facilitate our border control efforts to keep undesirables out of the country?
For example, Challenger.
However, the most recent example was Sunak.
A massive increase in spending on defence is necessary but not sufficient.
The whole MoD is set up to fight the last war, and several floors of staff need to be cleared out of Whitehall.
We need to stop throwing good money after bad on custom projects such as Ajax, instead buying off the shelf. We need to work with a variety of suppliers from different countries, including startups such as Anduril and several companies in Ukraine who are fighting the current war - not the big company who has a habit of offering well-paid non-jobs to MoD retirees.
We need to prioritise making ammunition for current weapons rather than looking at the next big expensive boondoggle, get the Navy actually able to field more than two small ships at any one time, recruit and train tens of thousands of men and officers, address key bottlenecks such as flying school instructors and cybersecurity specialists.
It’s been ignored for decades, probably since 1991, under governments of all colours, well now there’s a heightened threat and we’re not ready, and neither is most of Europe.
North and Eastern Europe countries excepted.
Not that they are perfectly in the centre, but they have that 10% niche of not wanting to be either Tory or Labour that Tories and Labour cannot understand.
(We had dogs when I was a kid)
Seems pretty unacceptable given some people are allergic.
My experience, brief trip to office over COVID, was a colleague arriving with his Labrador. It happily padded about the place and marked its territory on the corner of the meeting room.
7/2 France
4/1 Argentina
7/1 England and Spain
14/1 Portugal and Brazil
16/1 Netherlands
20/1 Germany
33/1 bar
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner
But it's fairly rare.
While I'm not expecting a significant Reform decline anytime soon, it's pretty clear that tactical voting and unease about Farage's suitability as PM when push comes to shove at a general election, means his chances are now decidedly slim. The talk about him standing down (surely very unlikely) is indicative of this.
If enough of them decide that's the way to get what they want, some sort of pact might be inevitable. Unless the Tories suddenly pick up another 10% in the polls, in that circumstance whatever Kemi wants might well be irrelevant.
No serious country would ever issue something so ridiculous.
With the Jenricks etc now on board and in senior position Reform have committed to a 'We're the Tories, but done right this time' position, is that going to be sustainable if the Tories don't fade away and FPTP does not hammer them?
On topic, or at least on one of those raised so far, I can't see the Conservatives and Reform uniting. They might on occasion work together but there's too much bad blood at the top, and, I suggest, incompatible policies lower down. Climate change is an obvious one; Thatcher was an early accepter of the idea.
@JohnRentoul
The Curious Case of Louise Haigh’s Sensible Tax Proposals: a thread..
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/2071153890062426421
Am on Argentina at 10s so happy, my 900-1 last 16 prediction got scuppered by South Korea.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/2070955836311265294
TL:DR, it’s totally destroyed. This is where they used to make Iskander launchers, artillery systems, and various missiles.
Yet another day where Putin holds all the cards. I just don't know how Ukraine can hold out much longer.
While I applaud your optimism I think you're setting to much store by by-election results - where tactical voting is considerably easier - and Westminster gossip, than on the political fundamentals: Labour are unable to get to grips with the country's problems, the Tories are not forgiven for their period in government, and so Reform are the next cab on the rank.
https://www.etsy.com/ie/listing/1672318358/pretty-in-pink-flamingo-playing-cards
Maybe, but the very fact they have been exceeding the big two shows the situation is more changeable that usual, making their primacy fragile as well in an uncertain time.
Playing away at altitude is tougher than people understand. Even things like the ball flies faster so all the passing and shooting is different. If we get past Mexico we will have done very well.
Next.
https://x.com/jalle51/status/2071104654751007033
@atrupar
after detailing the Trump family's corruption, Ossoff says "if you're involved in any of this, next year you'll be raising your right hand and swearing to tell the truth, the whole truth, and so help you God before Congress."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/2070945958062379201
Late edit; silly me, momentary old age confusion: it was in the Guardian (so it must be true!)
"Reform UK makes dramatic first impression in Senedd opposition role
With more than a third of Welsh parliament seats, Reform MSs have caused tears and walkouts – and voted against their own party"
Pop up tent cities that will become semi permanent as Plod won’t be able to move them on, unless the local council can take action.
😂😂😂😂
By contrast labour attracted £4,102,856
The LibDems, (formerly Social and Liberal Democrats) are a merger of two parties, Liberals and SDP.
The liberals, often called orange bookers after an orange book financed by Paul Marshall, were totally dominant under Clegg in the coalition government of 2010. But not any more. I think it is now fairly balanced.
There are plenty of Red Libdems (I'm one) and Blue LibDems. But neither are fighting internally for dominance, unlike within the Tory or Labour parties. Our two sets of values are complementary and focused on getting good outcomes for local people.
We should be popular ....
Sadly I suspect a formatting issue.
Russia are losing the war against Ukraine. They are likely to have a change of leadership by the end of the year. Their conventional forces, tanks, artillery, ships, aircraft have all been destroyed. They frankly couldn't take on Poland, let alone get near to us. They do indulge in terrorism and threaten things such as sub sea cables. Whether the post Putin regime is likely to continue this is hard to guess at this stage but the smart thing is to assume yes.
Ukraine is likely to develop into a serious military power. Their drones are several generations ahead of competitors already and accelerating under the heat of war. But even if things cool between us it is hard to see how they become a threat to the UK.
The US is being massively weakened by the incompetence of Trump but it will remain a major force focused mainly on the Pacific and China. It is not obvious to me how we could or should play any part in those tensions.
NATO has become a meaningless and pointless bureaucracy without a purpose. It is time to replace it with something meaningful, something that will not include the US. What we need to do is shape that new entity and work out what our role is going to be within it. That will determine where the MOD should waste their next tranche of cash.