Starmer calls peak Reform but says I fight on, I fight to win – politicalbetting.com
Starmer calls peak Reform but says I fight on, I fight to win – politicalbetting.com
? WATCH: Keir Starmer says "the tide is turning" on Reform UK "They can't now win by-elections. They've reached probably the peak of their support – it's going down" pic.twitter.com/tXrw5GpNCr
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But don't forget I'm not always right! 😊
Kemi Badenoch@KemiBadenoch
This is a significant result, and I want to start by congratulating @DLumsden_MSP
on becoming the new Member of Parliament for Aberdeen South and the newest Conservative MP!
Makerfield was about one man’s job.
Aberdeen South was about thousands of jobs in oil and gas across our country and the future of an entire city.
Yesterday, the people of Aberdeen sent a message on behalf of the whole country. Energy security is national security. They know it is common sense to use our own oil and gas rather than importing it from overseas. They know it is madness to make ourselves poorer, weaker and more dependent at a time when even the government’s own intelligence says we are under threat. The first duty of any government is to keep its people safe. The Conservative Party will always put Britain’s security first.
What makes this result particularly significant is that many people who voted Conservative today have never voted Conservative before. I want to thank every one of them.
Many will have voted for us because they care deeply about Aberdeen and its future. Many will have voted for us because they are sick of the SNP’s shenanigans. Others because they are worried about what Labour’s policies mean for their jobs and livelihoods. Many voted for us because they wanted a strong local champion.
Douglas is that champion. He has lived in Aberdeen all his life. He spent two decades working in the oil and gas industry. He knows this city, he knows its people, and throughout this campaign he brought energy, optimism and a genuine belief in Aberdeen’s future. Wherever he went, he had a smile on his face and a positive message about what this great city can achieve.
The Conservative Party is working to earn the trust of the country again. I am grateful and humbled that Aberdeen looked at the choice before them and decided that the Conservative Party was the party that would fight for families, workers and business.
Thank you, Aberdeen. I will never stop fighting for you. Douglas will never stop fighting for you.
The Conservative Party will keep fighting for common sense, a stronger economy and a stronger country.
https://x.com/KemiBadenoch/status/2067861410059612497
Why did the Tories die?
Partly because they spent 14 years trying to destroy anyone who, sociologically speaking, might vote for them in the future.
That’s right. They purposefully tried to stop the re-production of the middle class.
https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/2067666479319793932
X
Dean M Thomson@DeanMThomson
"Makerfield was about one man’s job. Aberdeen South was about thousands of jobs in oil and gas"
That line has cut through. Burnham's team will wince, as face prospects of a bloodied coup to oust Starmer. As Labour descends into infighting, free-range for Tories to define him
https://x.com/DeanMThomson/status/2067879031270449511
No. Once again Harman gets it wrong. It must be done by the book, and Burnham will actually get a boost by being seen to be responsible for dragging Starmer kicking and screaming away from No 10. Those who voted for Burnham yesterday weren't voting for more of the same, anything but.
Burnham must be acutely aware that Harriet Harman's actions led to the demise of his leadership campaign in 2015, after she overstepped her brief as acting temporary leader by trying to force through policy to the agenda of the right of the party and gave him the dilemma of whether or not to resign from the Shadow Cabinet. He made the wrong choice to stay in and the left of the party turned against him, paving the way for Corbyn.
Harman is the last person who should be offering him advice on this.
So when 11 years later Harriet Harman is advising a particular course of action, Burnham's first recourse should be to look to follow the exact opposite course. Give Starmer the weekend to announce his planned departure, in the knowledge that on Monday Burnham will regardless announce that he is standing for the leadership with the support of way over the required 81 MPs. Very likely a simple Burnham v Starmer contest according to party rules, because Streeting can't I think muster 81 supporters now that Burnham is a dead cert.
You could stretch to vibes around renewables too - my generation has lived through Ukraine and Iran, and will bear the cost of climate change.
“The only time I saw him put up a fight was when asked to resign”
Peter.
"It;'s also worth noting that the International annual rate of jobs decline in mature oil fields is set at somehwere between 2-4% so from 1980 to 2030 the natural decline would be from about 130k to around 50k on a 2% decline. or roughly where we will are now regardless of Government policy."
Sorry but I do laugh when people make such ill informed comments.
What the hell has the decline in jobs in mature oil fields got to do with anything. Of course they decline. But then you find NEW oil and gas fields to replace them. There is still an estimated recoverable 15 billion BOE equivalent in the UK sector - set against total UK production since the start of the North Sea of 37 billion BOE equivalent. So there are decades of oil and gas still to be developed. Oh and every prediction ever made for the North Sea since it started has underestimated the reserves.
Those job declines are by no means inevitable except due to political decisions
He'll have to use all his charm to keep the PLP in line while dealing with the overhanging debt we've all inherited (apart from Sandpit and LostPassword who are no longer with us)
The hatred for technologies and “techies” in some of the documents is quite impressive.
They saw making batteries as an accidental endpoint of their scheme. With expertise to be bought in as required. And got rid of as quickly as possible.
We've not invaded Iraq or caused a bond market crisis or introduced a poll tax.
But he is undeniably very unpopular and the perception has set in that Labour will make a change.
Taking global reserves of 1.77 Tn barrels of oil, 200 Tn cubic metres of gas, 1 Tn tonnes of coal if you burnt all of it it would yield 3.7 Tn tonnes of CO2 (Oil 0.8, Gas 0.4, Coal 2.5).
@ 44% absorption corresponds to ~ 260 ppm additional CO2 (3364 Bn tonnes in atmosphere = 430 ppm) which gets us to about 690 ppm by 2126. So a way away from the 998000 ppm of Venus
Historically 690 ppm is fine for the earth tbh, & everyone is using solar at that point.
The problem is solved because we've run out of fossil fuels.
Things like Rosebank and West of Shetland go straight to tanker so they mostly don't contribute to the network costs, certainly for oil.
It matters not a jot how much oil is down there, if the long term cost of developing it, extracting it and getting it ashore doesn't make sense. The smaller the new field and the futher out it is, the more it costs to get it ashore.
Much like Scargills deep mined coal, it matters not how much there is, if someone elses is cheaper.
Most new fields in the North Sea are small and only viable if they tie into the existing pipeline network and that isn't going to change.
Peter.
Stop the presses! We've talked before about the idea that the standing rule that social media aren't publishers should be abolished if they're using algorithms to promote specific material. Well, there's a bombshell* ruling by the EU Court of Justice that has just landed that makes that argument! See https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/commentanalysis/arid-41864400.html
* Possibly not a bombshell. It is, of course, more complicated than that.
Not many constituencies in England & Wales are quite so directly impacted.
Especially, Reform are currently down if not out. They keep losing the high profile stuff. As every skoolboy nose you never kick a man unless he is down. Tories need to attack strongly and make it clear they don't deal with them or any aspect of the far right.
Labour are both about to introspect but in such a way as to secure the longer term. Labour v Tory would be the Tories preferred framing of the next election. In fact it would be brilliant. Next best would be Not Reform v Reform.
Perhaps Kemi should say that they will happily have Kruger back when he recovers from his blip, but not Jenrick. That would make an unmissable point.
https://bsky.app/profile/thomaswpenny.bsky.social/post/3moi6ycbozk2e
As part of the spending review / budget process, individual departments would go in to see the Chief Secretary to make the case for their spending.
He would be given papers for each department with the savings he was expected to achieve.
There would be a series of calculations over several pages. The ideal, various compromises, then, on the last page, the most he could possibly give them.
Each department would come in and Andy Burnham would turn to the back page and offer them that.
Peter.
Know a few people in this mould. Always worked hard. Top marks at School and Uni. Mostly worked in the public sector or adjacent. Can't understand why they get passed over/lose their jobs when they haven't done anything wrong, according to their conception of morality and success (i.e. working had)....
Starmer wanting to fight on is the worst case for Labour, and his cabinet needs to tell him early next week it is time to go, if not before
The weekend is going to be brutal for Starmer
The SNP sits on around 3 in 7 votes,
If the other Parties split the vote the biggest of them gets 2!...
3 beats 2.
If the other Parties unite around the party on 2 it gets 4!...
4 beats 3!
One election the Unionist vote is divided!
The SNP get 50+ MP's Labour a half dozen
Next People wanting rid of the Tories so switch to Labour;
Labour get 50 Mp's the SNP again a half dozen.
Peter.
Technically he isn't an MP until swearing in.
Or am I wrong?
The public have expensive tastes that we can't afford and certainly don't expect to pay for.
The press are uniformly against him, some to ridiculous levels.
He is, as his government, the worst communicator to ever be in charge of the country.
I'm more surprised he retains as much support as he does rather than the other way around, and I still think he may be better than all the plausible alternatives.
..On the plus side the near collapse of the Greens and Lib Dems in Makerfield does give confidence that centre-left voters will vote tactically en masse to stop Reform...
The choice in the by-election was extremely clear on a number of levels - not least that a vote for Burnham was a vote to get rid of Starmer.
Choices in a general election are far less clear for any given constituency, and also the anti-incumbent effect would be working against a PM Burnham rather than in his favour.
It's a bit like sending reinforcements to a position you can't hold.
You can delay it but you risk losing more men when it falls.
Best to send only enough to hold long enough to prepare a btetter line of defnce and then get as many out first before it falls.
I don't have a problem with some new marginal developments if they make sense, but ignoring the long term outcome becuase you don't want to face it, is burying your head in the sand.
Peter.
He'll have considerably fewer now. He'll need loans.
The flag wagging blue "beautiful for 120 years" pool went green within a week, so they added hydrogen peroxide to make it blue again.
(Imagine the Red Dwarf them tune as background.)
The issue will be how this is achieved, and to what extent successfully. Much depends on how the Tories can play out the slight strengthening of their position from Reform's by election fails; and how a new PM gets on.
The succession of Reform by election fails matters a lot; much more than the local election triumphs.
Just partial cashed out on Lab leader on BF and put over £300 in the kitty.
I very pleasant start to a hot weekend.
Her gender, race, colour is immaterial.
She's useless
Thats a political judgement nothing elss
I can't think of any and I don't speak for any, but I have seen criticism of the idea that the Aberdeen result is some new dawn for the Tories the way they have tried to spin it, but nothing aimed at Kemi's background or gender.
By and large I think most criticisms on here focus on; " We don't think she is any good, and she's a Tory!"
Peter.
That is the same with any tax change.
You have repeatedly supported fuel duty increases. I could do the same to that to claim it is relatively tiny too.
There is no reason to make any changes be deflated by making it a percentage of all taxes, no change is ever going to realistically be "significant" then. It is just not sound logic or economics to do what you are doing.
Billions of pounds is significant, even if total taxes are hundreds of billions.
Here's a scenario for him:
Streeting's pitch to Burnham's support could be "You don't want Andy wielding the dagger, lend your vote to me". Someone gets in Keir's ear "Do not put yourself through the humiliation of a contest which Burnham is going to beat you handily in" and he resigns
Nominations count:
Streeting 85
Burnham 80
Streeting becomes PM.
I suspect the argument now is how long can be negotiate so he has a swan song summer of international visits etc.
(suchomimus)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-J-L2FeRSVU
I've been banging the drum on this for years. As have others.
The problem is we are so utterly inconsistent now in our tax rates, and heavily penalise those with the highest costs (eg young parents) with the highest tax rates, all to featherbed certain voters into not having to pay those taxes.
Everyone on the same income should pay the same taxes.
That and finding some bets on Andy B as next Lab leader means I am no longer going to the poorhouse if Andy B becomes next PM.
Ed Miliband at 100/1 also helped.
Peter.
Would screw over Millennials who like myself who paid their loan repayments, but our generation always gets screwed by all changes it seems.
Daughter made a quiche in cookery lesson yesterday but had to leave it (and school) early for a (disastrous) piano exam, from which she came straight home. Cookery teacher said she would remove quiche from oven and daughter could take it home today. But today is Sports Day, which is off-site at the athletics club in the local park. Daughter collected quiche first thing and apparently left it at the office for wife to collect so she wasn't having to take a quiche to Sports Day for it to sit in the Greater Manchester sun all day.
But when wife got to school, the office denied the existence of any sort of quiche.
So a mystery. Albeit a very boring, middle class one.
Meanwhile Burnham won't be lending votes to anyone. He has nothing to lose by forcing a formal leadership contest, in which Labour will quickly unite around him, and quite a lot to gain by being credited as the one who did for Starmer especially from those who are not natural Labour supporters and see Starmer as toxic.
Time will tell but the Andy - Kemi show is about to come to town
Kemi like all politicians has faults but she will lead into GE29 and even on here her improvement has been recognised
Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
3/ It's clear there will now be a demand for a change of leadership. But without total reset of economic policy it's pointless. End Treasury's veto on Labour growth strategy, meet the 3% defence target, cap rents, build council homes and renationalise water...
Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
4/ You could do all of that in 12 months and take on and smash the far right billionaires trying to destroy our democracy using new social media legislation...
https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2067814977713369568
So the question is whether Starmer dogs his heels in and forces a vote, and when Burnham forces the issue.
There’s going to be lots of threads on the alternative vote system because Labour uses AV to elect their leaders.
The results last night in the three Westminster by-elections definitely made the positions of PM Keir Starmer at Westminster and FM John Swinney at Holyrood far more precarious, and I say this despite the SNP hold in one of their absolutely nailed on heartland seats in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry. But again do your homework and check out the less than subtle X posts by newly elected SNP MSP and now former SNP Aberdeen South MP Stephen Flynn on the back of Scottish Conservative gain where he made it clear he is looking to replace John Swinney as SNP leader just like Andy Burnham is equally clearly hoping to replace Keir Starmer as the current Labour PM and leader!
But wiser heads might also note that quietly in the background Kemi Badenoch had a very good night as Conservative party leader and this will have only gone onto strengthen her own position within her party and among the centre right electorate going forward, especially as Nigel Farage looks to be focussing more and more on his big earning interests outside Westminster as Reform and the newly created Restore party descend into an ever more acrimonious fight for the former far right UKIP vote....
A prediction you can hold me too, come the next GE Keir Starmer, John Swinney, Ed Davey and Zack Polanski will no longer be leaders of their parties but Kemi Badenoch will lead the Conservatives into that election.
There are now 98 Labour mps calling for Starmer to go
https://x.com/saintjavelin/status/2067911472097656979
https://x.com/skynews/status/2067894540254445641
BREAKING: Man arrested after toddler ended up in crocodile enclosure 'not fit for interview' and released
“Ended up”, “Released”..?