A great result for the King of the North and a very bad one for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
A great result for the King of the North and a very bad one for the SNP – politicalbetting.com
? | Makerfield Parliamentary By-Election Result:? LAB: 54.8% (+9.6)?? RFM: 34.5% (+2.7)? RES: 6.8% (New)? CON: 2.2% (-8.7)? GRN: 0.7% (-3.7)? LDM: 0.4% (-6.4)?? CBF: 0.2% (New)? MRLP: 0.1% (New)? Others (6): 0.3%Labour HOLD.Changes w/ GE2024.
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St Andy was always going to walk it.
For a Kemi!!
I'm highly skeptical that most who say it is harmful genuinely think that, as at the least they'd use it the bare minimum and no way 77% of Gen Z use it only for those essential social purposes.
Indeed in the last year the pretence has been dropped and they've basically admitted they are rebranded Tories. So actual outliers need somewhere to go.
FFS.
The main reason Farage has got where he is is because of his ability to take ex-Conservative voters by being more assertively right wing. Now Restore are doing the same to him.
Using someone's signature move against them is always funny to watch.
(Ok we do ban drink for kids, but that's where the analogy breaks down)
“ You're a country of nine million people. You can't just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem that you have."
I'd say that is a particular problem for Kemi, because the Cons have thrown out most of their one nation wing, and much of the "Jenrick" wing, whatever you want to call it, has also left. Plus they had their worst election result for a century iirc, and they have still not faced that head on.
They need to build out sideways politically, and Kemi is digging a bigger hole in the same place. In my entirely neutral (ahem !) terms, they have gutted the party and thrown everything away except the noisome entrails. They do have the advantage that Reform, who Kemi still seems to see as her main competitor, are currently on the skids.
Starmer has a similar problem in some ways, but he is in Government and it will more be determined by (1) If his policies work for groups of voters and (2) Events, dear boy.
Neither is a wicket upon which I would enjoy playing.
(Edit: so long as I was 100% confident they would do a deal with Reform - which I'm not currently tbh.)
It leaves the Lib Dems as the only main opposition party in England not to have won a by-election in this Parliament. Whatever happened to their fabled by-election machine?
Everyone, including Starmer and Burnham, concluded that bring the drivers' friend was the way to go, ignoring the detail that Zone 6 is an unusual bit of London. Chasing that vote was one of the signs of Sunak going mad.
Potentially, it's the same here, except eking out oil and gas for a bit longer. Obviously plays well in Aberdeen, not sure about nationwide.
Wow. Burnham beat Farage so badly he isn't even whining about postal votes.
https://bsky.app/profile/stephenkb.bsky.social/post/3momsdjoai223
I like Andy Burnham. I once saw him speak at Salford University where he said, “the last time I was here was to watch The Smiths in 1984.” Then, the next time I saw him there, he said the exact same thing again.
Unless they are leading Reform where like in Swindob they'll say no deals with Reform, and trust Reform to come to them and agree a deal anyway.
A small business person that very publicly announces they're a racist who wants to deport British citizens with a non-white skin colour. I assume she's been promised a slot on GB news or similar so she doesn't go hungry.
Great for Tories - maybe only in Aberdeen but it was a stunning result, take your wins where you can, those have been few and far between
Bad for Reform, this was one of their most winnable seats. Which in turn should help the Conservatives long term
Bad for Labour in Scotland. And apart from presumably getting rid of an unpopular leader, maybe elsewhere too with Makerfield being the exception that proves there rule.
Exciting times for British oil and gas!
Awesome result for the Tories in Aberdeen, congratulations to Douglas Lumsden MP and there will be a big smile on Kemi Badenoch’s face this morning.
A busy day awaits, of football, cricket, golf, and laughing at Moscow being on fire.
Would be a bit harder for the Tories in England, where Reform are stronger, but it's a major step forward for a party that received such a drubbing less than two years ago.
Three points:
1) Don't overlook that Reform and Reform+Restore (ie the insurgent right) increased their vote share at Makerfield from 2024. The latter from 32 to 41.
2) Reform cannot win either 325+ or most seats in a GE. Tactical voting works.
3) Two weeks ago Kellner said:
If..there is nothing wrong with the raw sample, then Burnham now has a 22 point lead (leading Kenyon by 56-34 per cent”
and is sorry he didn't think it mattered as much as it did. Worth a read:
https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/four-take-aways-from-burnhams-big?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=202660063&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
We're going to have a Cambridge man as PM again, we've seen the other lot make a mess of things and we're going to fix that.
Presume their political markets guy doesn't start work until 9am.
Nobody has spotted my subtle B5 reference.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2026/jun/18/vat-private-school-fees-not-caused-pupil-exodus-bridget-phillipson
So an extra £1.8bn for the ~10m pupils in state schools in UK. £200/student additional funding.
It's like fishing being the only issue on the ballot paper in Torbay
Aberdeen needs oil and gas, only the Tories and Reform living in dark ages on that topic
Of course Kemi has to go to celebrate the win, any Leader would, but it's a strange optic to be as far away from Westminster as you can be, on a day when everyone is focused on Westminster
It shouldn't stand in the way of our campaign for renewables and electrification which is the obvious future for both energy needs, jobs and security. It makes no sense when doing carbon accounting to merely substitute it with imported oil and gas.
We will need fossil fuels for chemical feedstock etc in the long term too.
It was a great tip. A very good value loser that almost came off.
I had £20 on at 12/1
I'm not 100% convinced it applies in a democracy.
I didn't bet on the Scottish byelections, as didn't think much value there.
Burnham brings in top economists before possible leadership run
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/18/andy-burnham-top-economists-possible-leadership-run
..Burnham is understood to be getting advice from Andy Haldane, a former Bank of England chief economist, as well as Richard Hughes, a former chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility and Jim O’Neill, a crossbench peer and former Treasury minister who worked on George Osborne’s “Northern Powerhouse”..
It is not either or but both, maximise tax from extracting oil and gas and continue the transition to net zero
North sea oil and gas exploration will be very much on Burnham's agenda and significantly Wes Streeting is on the same page as Kemi
And fuck the planet.
https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/four-take-aways-from-burnhams-big?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2975369&post_id=202660063&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1mnpci&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
We are transitioning to net zero but need oil and gas for decades to come
We are minnows in this story compared to US Russia, and others who completely ignore the issue
Also, I made a tiny bet on the Victoria state election, laying Labor at under evens, then just backed at 3.55. Might try looking at more things like that over the weekend, time permitting (checking polls, starting position, etc). Only a little profit, but it's a nice result given it's an entirely new thing for me.
And, as mentioned, Norris at 11 each way in Austria is worth contemplating.
That would be a reassuring explanation for the discrepancy.
We gain tax from more exploration which is not being paid at present at an estimate of 2.5 billion pa
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen-aberdeenshire/7041486/offshore-energies-north-sea-windfall-tax-changes/
Good result for Tories in Aberdeen South, well done Andy JS and all who backed them there. Whilst I thought the SNP were favourites, I didn't think there would be much in it either way. In the end up Douglas Lumsden won easily. The Tories are still very strong in the north east and were close in both the equivalent seat here and Aberdeenshire East at Holyrood against a backdrop of losing votes in Scotland.
I think there are several factors at play, obviously oil and gas, its quite a pro business seat, so not as typical of other urban seats with a high student or young population. The SNP have had a poor 6 weeks at Holyrood, which haven't helped, and Reform are starting to decline.
Labour are very weak in Scotland just now, Anas Sarwar may step down at some point, however the bigger issue is their UK leader is now very clearly done, but won't go either quickly or easily. He may get 2 years in office, but surely not much more than that. Will SKS last as long as the leader's speech at conference?
Going forward it feels more like a Hartlepool moment for Reform, and it wouldn't surprise me if they have peaked. Burnham can shore up the working class vote much better than Starmer, and a non London based leader should be in their interests.
If Burnham fights the leadership and wins, I think he will be the first UK Lab leader based in a non London seat since Ed M.
I fear we may be about to find out.
Burnham has given no sign that he has any idea how to solve the country's many problems than Starmer does. And he will probably make some key ones, especially economic ones, even worse.
He loves gimmicks, needs to throw the left of the party multiple bones, there's no money to pay for them and he will damage economic growth even more by raising taxes.
So by next year we may be pining for Starmer.
The industry is collapsing mainly because there's no more commercially viable oil and gas left
This is how it happens: Labour takes support away from the Far Right. The Far Right starts internal feuding. The Tories look respectable and find a few people who look like a government in waiting and suggest some sensible ideas. Votes drift back to the Tories from the Far Right, along with some support from those who have lent their support to Labour. The Tories so position themselves that it is safe to vote for them affirmatively and tactically to keep the Far Right out. (They need to do more on this soon.)
not enough to put them in government but enough to survive and fight another day.
Biggest rise in by-election turnout, from the GE prior, since Torrington 1958
First actual rise in Labour vote total in a by-election since Hull N in 1966.
First by-election winner to (likely) go on to mount a leadership challenge since Tony Benn in 1984.
The TLDR of the rest of it appears to be that you can't rely on, and hence shouldn't weight using, people's recollection of how they voted last time.
Indeed I expect Burnham will authorise the continuing development of the North Sea
Their own model suggests a significant reduction in tax revenue while we wait for O&G activity to bump up a bit (in relative terms - it will still be declining in line with the overall trend). The implied future revenue is all indirect - payroll, supply chain etc. That subject to an awful lot of uncertainty.
I’m not against this but it doesn’t help the cause suggesting that there is significant cash available here - a 0.14% increase in tax revenue over a decade, and that’s a very optimistic estimate.
OEUK are only claiming £13bn of which most (£10bn) is PAYE
https://oeuk.org.uk/boosting-north-sea-investment-could-generate-13-4-billion-to-eliminate-fuel-poverty-and-add-an-additional-60-billion-to-the-uk-economy/
other briefings are less optimistic
https://www.upliftuk.org/post/the-declining-economics-of-the-north-sea
Financial analysis
https://ageoftransformation.org/britains-rightwing-want-to-drill-for-nothing-in-the-north-sea/
Starmer is waking up saying heaven knows I'm miserable now, as I know its over.
Surely you mean economically viable.