All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
Will Starmer make it to July 5th?
The inertia is so marked he needs to go immediately, but should he be given his two years as a consolation prize?
Really disappointing result for Restore. They'll shortly join Alba and Change UK in the discarded parties bin, which in many ways is the best news of the night.
That's a thumping defeat for the populist right. Well played Andy Burnham and the voters of Makerfield. A new dawn has broken, has it not. No, it hasn't, but it feels like a hugely significant moment.
Burnham winning is exactly the result I wanted because he will almost certainly remove Starmer but also Farage and Lowe failing is an added bonus
The conservatives voted tactically and it looks as if more backed Burnham than Reform
When the rise in Labour vote share was lower than the fall in Green and LibDem, I’m not sure it is so obvious how Conservatives voted. Those Restore votes had to come from somewhere….
It is now only a question of timing for when Burnham becomes PM, and who he puts in his cabinet. I am sure that we will see the return of Haigh and Rayner and surely a few fresh faces.
Burnham thrashed Kenyon, and the Labour vote comfortably exceeded the total of Reform and Restore. Talking up a close contest was clearly just the usual by-election GOTV effort and to be taken with a shovel full of salt.
A good result for the Tories in Aberdeen South, clearly driven by the oil industry vote and unionist tactical voting. Good to see Reform flopping both there and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
I thought everyone else would get squeezed to shit, and that the total of the two would be 92-95%... Restore outperformed, but my bets were still a winner.
Restore did outperform.
I was expecting about 4% for them, and bet on them getting <5% accordingly.
Incidentally, I wasn't feeling too confident the day before as the Conservatives were out to 4.5, but won Aberdeen South by over 8,000 votes. Burnham was a heavy favourite, around 1.14, and won by around a thousand more. It'll get eclipsed by the Burnham news as we wait to see if he bottles challenging Starmer, but that's a hefty margin.
Edited extra bit: and thanks, Mr. Pete, for pointing out it was Mr. JS with the wise tip.
An all round win for Badenoch and for the rest of us. She gets to remain as LOTO, something we all wanted. P.B Tories and non-Conservatives alike are all happy with that result this morning.
That's a thumping defeat for the populist right. Well played Andy Burnham and the voters of Makerfield. A new dawn has broken, has it not. No, it hasn't, but it feels like a hugely significant moment.
Burnham winning is exactly the result I wanted because he will almost certainly remove Starmer but also Farage and Lowe failing is an added bonus
The conservatives voted tactically and it looks as if more backed Burnham than Reform
When the rise in Labour vote share was lower than the fall in Green and LibDem, I’m not sure it is so obvious how Conservatives voted. Those Restore votes had to come from somewhere….
Notably and unusually the turnout in the byelection was several percentage points higher than the last GE.
I think that the very efficient Labour vote and Ming Vase strategy of Labour in the GE failed to get out the Labour vote in places like Makerfield, partly because of its lack of ambition and partly because a walkover was expected.
GOTV is going to be key at the next GE and clear choices for the tactical voter to beat Reform. In most seats that will be Labour.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
@Andy_JS . After almost ten years to the day he nailed Brexit.
Well done to Kemi and the Conservatives. It would otherwise have been their night.
A bit of caution @Andy_JS also predicted a cliffhanger/recount in Makerfield. While some of us predicted that Burnham would comfortably win with a majority greater than the Restore vote.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
That's a thumping defeat for the populist right. Well played Andy Burnham and the voters of Makerfield. A new dawn has broken, has it not. No, it hasn't, but it feels like a hugely significant moment.
Burnham winning is exactly the result I wanted because he will almost certainly remove Starmer but also Farage and Lowe failing is an added bonus
The conservatives voted tactically and it looks as if more backed Burnham than Reform
When the rise in Labour vote share was lower than the fall in Green and LibDem, I’m not sure it is so obvious how Conservatives voted. Those Restore votes had to come from somewhere….
About that...
It's interesting how closely this #ThePolitics result mirrors the 2019 GE. Reform taking the Conservative Party vote share and Restore the Brexit Party Share.
Makerfield always had the Conservatives in a distant but solid second place- 30% in good years, 20% in bad ones. It may upset some to say it, but a lot of those voters were happy to go for something harder, once it was offered in a suit.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
Speaking of the nationalist menace, I did enjoy the unintended irony of the Arbroath winner's comments as quoted by the Beeb:
She said voters had "rejected the politics of division and hate" and made it clear that Scotland's future "lies with independence".
As I predicted the day it was called, Burnham wins comfortably.
And all credit to all of you who did. I thought this was for Reform to lose and to be fair that is what they did. Tactically Robert Kenyon ought to have spoken after the count, might not have felt like it be he ought to have done. I know some returning officers don't allow losers to speak but they ought to be challenged.
I thought Kenyon was a reasonable candidate and remain unimpressed by Burnham. I said before he was a Southerner's idea of a Northerner and he still looks like that to me.
It is clear Labour did no work at all in this constituency during the GE - after all they didn't need to so that suggests their 2024 vote was understated for ultra safe constituencies.
Excellent news from Scotland and in many ways just as convincing a win as Makerfield.
I still don't get my head around Restore in Makerfield, what was all that ? Was it false flagging from Labour ? At least it didn't affect the result.
Burnham made the election about himself, and he won, well done for him. Nigel was probably not an asset for Reform. The Right needs to get its house in order, "A House divided against itself cannot stand" and it is about time we remembered Ronald Reagan, "Republican shall not speak ill of Republican". Hopefully Nigel will be beginning to bear that in mind otherwise I can see him wringing yet another crushing defeat out of the jaws of victory - that is what he did in Makerfield.
All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
Oh come, come, come.
This result is a triumph for Starmer. Could Burnham have won without a popular figure like SKS in Number Ten?
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
Yes, it's pretty clear a lot of that Conservative vote isn't really "real" but tactical unionist voting from Labour and LDs.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
@Andy_JS . After almost ten years to the day he nailed Brexit.
Well done to Kemi and the Conservatives. It would otherwise have been their night.
A bit of caution @Andy_JS also predicted a cliffhanger/recount in Makerfield. While some of us predicted that Burnham would comfortably win with a majority greater than the Restore vote.
If someone makes two predictions and one fails and the other comes off at longer than evens, that's still a good result.
If I hadn't been feeling pessimistic and backed Conservatives yesterday at 4.5 in Aberdeen South it would've been even better.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
Yes, it's pretty clear a lot of that Conservative vote isn't really "real" but tactical unionist voting from Labour and LDs.
Still, a win is a win.
As you yourself pointed out the biggest forces in British politics at the moment are the anti-Starmer and anti-Farage tactical votes. So there’s no shame in being the beneficiary of another form of tactical voting in Scotland.
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
He wants to get to 2 full years. He'll beg Streeting to make an actual contest, but Wes is going to back down.
No, i don't let being totally wrong in Aberdeen slow down the confidence of my predictions. I'm a pubdit!
As I predicted the day it was called, Burnham wins comfortably.
And all credit to all of you who did. I thought this was for Reform to lose and to be fair that is what they did. Tactically Robert Kenyon ought to have spoken after the count, might not have felt like it be he ought to have done. I know some returning officers don't allow losers to speak but they ought to be challenged.
I thought Kenyon was a reasonable candidate and remain unimpressed by Burnham. I said before he was a Southerner's idea of a Northerner and he still looks like that to me.
It is clear Labour did no work at all in this constituency during the GE - after all they didn't need to so that suggests their 2024 vote was understated for ultra safe constituencies.
Excellent news from Scotland and in many ways just as convincing a win as Makerfield.
I still don't get my head around Restore in Makerfield, what was all that ? Was it false flagging from Labour ? At least it didn't affect the result.
Burnham made the election about himself, and he won, well done for him. Nigel was probably not an asset for Reform. The Right needs to get its house in order, "A House divided against itself cannot stand" and it is about time we remembered Ronald Reagan, "Republican shall not speak ill of Republican". Hopefully Nigel will be beginning to bear that in mind otherwise I can see him wringing yet another crushing defeat out of the jaws of victory - that is what he did in Makerfield.
No disrespect but defeat out of the jaws of victory suggests it was close. It wasn’t close. And “the Right” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your post.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
@Andy_JS . After almost ten years to the day he nailed Brexit.
Well done to Kemi and the Conservatives. It would otherwise have been their night.
A bit of caution @Andy_JS also predicted a cliffhanger/recount in Makerfield. While some of us predicted that Burnham would comfortably win with a majority greater than the Restore vote.
If someone makes two predictions and one fails and the other comes off at longer than evens, that's still a good result.
If I hadn't been feeling pessimistic and backed Conservatives yesterday at 4.5 in Aberdeen South it would've been even better.
And @Foxy didn't of course - he was one of the ones who poo-poohed the prediction of the Tories winning Aberdeen South.
I'm sure a gracious and humble apology will be forthcoming, though.
Really disappointing result for Restore. They'll shortly join Alba and Change UK in the discarded parties bin, which in many ways is the best news of the night.
So many US alt right figures, like Asmongold or Elon Musk, will be very confused as they've bee told the public want Restore.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
As I predicted the day it was called, Burnham wins comfortably.
And all credit to all of you who did. I thought this was for Reform to lose and to be fair that is what they did. Tactically Robert Kenyon ought to have spoken after the count, might not have felt like it be he ought to have done. I know some returning officers don't allow losers to speak but they ought to be challenged.
I thought Kenyon was a reasonable candidate and remain unimpressed by Burnham. I said before he was a Southerner's idea of a Northerner and he still looks like that to me.
It is clear Labour did no work at all in this constituency during the GE - after all they didn't need to so that suggests their 2024 vote was understated for ultra safe constituencies.
Excellent news from Scotland and in many ways just as convincing a win as Makerfield.
I still don't get my head around Restore in Makerfield, what was all that ? Was it false flagging from Labour ? At least it didn't affect the result.
Burnham made the election about himself, and he won, well done for him. Nigel was probably not an asset for Reform. The Right needs to get its house in order, "A House divided against itself cannot stand" and it is about time we remembered Ronald Reagan, "Republican shall not speak ill of Republican". Hopefully Nigel will be beginning to bear that in mind otherwise I can see him wringing yet another crushing defeat out of the jaws of victory - that is what he did in Makerfield.
No disrespect but defeat out of the jaws of victory suggests it was close. It wasn’t close. And “the Right” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your post.
Anyone who thinks Kenyon "a reasonable candidate" has clearly been on the Kool-Aid!
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
He wants to get to 2 full years. He'll beg Streeting to make an actual contest, but Wes is going to back down.
No, i don't let being totally wrong in Aberdeen slow down the confidence of my predictions. I'm a pubdit!
Streeting isn't going to 'back down.' He won't get 81 nominations.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
I agree in general, but the turnout was normal for a by-election really. Makerfield is exceptional.
As I predicted the day it was called, Burnham wins comfortably.
And all credit to all of you who did. I thought this was for Reform to lose and to be fair that is what they did. Tactically Robert Kenyon ought to have spoken after the count, might not have felt like it be he ought to have done. I know some returning officers don't allow losers to speak but they ought to be challenged.
I thought Kenyon was a reasonable candidate and remain unimpressed by Burnham. I said before he was a Southerner's idea of a Northerner and he still looks like that to me.
It is clear Labour did no work at all in this constituency during the GE - after all they didn't need to so that suggests their 2024 vote was understated for ultra safe constituencies.
Excellent news from Scotland and in many ways just as convincing a win as Makerfield.
I still don't get my head around Restore in Makerfield, what was all that ? Was it false flagging from Labour ? At least it didn't affect the result.
Burnham made the election about himself, and he won, well done for him. Nigel was probably not an asset for Reform. The Right needs to get its house in order, "A House divided against itself cannot stand" and it is about time we remembered Ronald Reagan, "Republican shall not speak ill of Republican". Hopefully Nigel will be beginning to bear that in mind otherwise I can see him wringing yet another crushing defeat out of the jaws of victory - that is what he did in Makerfield.
No disrespect but defeat out of the jaws of victory suggests it was close. It wasn’t close. And “the Right” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in your post.
Calling on Farage to recognise some greater good ahead of his own ambition and vanity is also a tad optimistic.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
Yes, I got it wrong on Aberdeen South, but my point was that the Holyrood constituency was not congruous with the Westminster one as many were saying.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
However people want to loo, at it, this really was a good result for the Blue team.
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
He wants to get to 2 full years. He'll beg Streeting to make an actual contest, but Wes is going to back down.
No, i don't let being totally wrong in Aberdeen slow down the confidence of my predictions. I'm a pubdit!
Streeting isn't going to 'back down.' He won't get 81 nominations.
He may not, but some of his nomination base might be Starmer loyalists who have not yet moved, and Burnham's arrival might release some of those, so I don't entirely rule it out.
I do know a guy who is what i call stealth Reform/Restore in that most of the time they toe the line on our milquetoast middle class set of opinions, possibly for a quiet life, but every now and then show some ankle like 'Trump's offensive, but he's usually right about most things'.
It will be interesting if they think Burnham is a genuine threat or not.
As though I'm pessimistic on the Tories, if Reform are not 1st nationally they mighrmt drop another 5 to the Tories purely from former loyalists who no longer believe Reform can win.
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
He wants to get to 2 full years. He'll beg Streeting to make an actual contest, but Wes is going to back down.
No, i don't let being totally wrong in Aberdeen slow down the confidence of my predictions. I'm a pubdit!
Streeting isn't going to 'back down.' He won't get 81 nominations.
He may not, but some of his nomination base might be Starmer loyalists who have not yet moved, and Burnham's arrival might release some of those, so I don't entirely rule it out.
Any Starmer loyalists left are careerists. Such people will hurry to kiss the Burnham ring.
All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
Oh come, come, come.
This result is a triumph for Starmer. Could Burnham have won without a popular figure like SKS in Number Ten?
I'm very glad that at least two PBers appreciate humour.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
Yes, I got it wrong on Aberdeen South, but my point was that the Holyrood constituency was not congruous with the Westminster one as many were saying.
You should have stopped after the first five words 😉
BTW I meant to ask you, what was your opinion of Jordan James when he was with you ? He was at Blues and looked like a star in the making. Went abroad to better himself. Seems to have done little of note since then and was loaned to your boys in a difficult season.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
However people want to loo, at it, this really was a good result for the Blue team.
Clearly so. A win is a win, and beating Reform.
Perhaps the most interesting contest is now the GM Mayor byelection. That covers a big area of the NW, and Labour is going to need a strong candidate. How the Tories do there will be interesting.
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
He wants to get to 2 full years. He'll beg Streeting to make an actual contest, but Wes is going to back down.
No, i don't let being totally wrong in Aberdeen slow down the confidence of my predictions. I'm a pubdit!
Streeting isn't going to 'back down.' He won't get 81 nominations.
Backing down will be his spin. Like claiming he had the numbers but didn't want to run without St Andy.
Very good performance by Burnham, but remember three rules of British politics:
- by-elections tell you nothing whatever about the national picture - how politicians do before they hold office tells you nothing about how they'll do once they hold it - getting rid of a Labour leader is always more difficult than it looks
On the third point it now looks piss easy, so it will possibly be of only moderate difficulty.
I'm guessing Starmer will announce his departure on Monday (it wouldn't surprise me if he tries to give himself another few months in the process). If he doesn't, Streeting will precipitate a leadership contest.
He wants to get to 2 full years. He'll beg Streeting to make an actual contest, but Wes is going to back down.
No, i don't let being totally wrong in Aberdeen slow down the confidence of my predictions. I'm a pubdit!
Best thing for Burnham now is to capture the castle with no force required at all. But will that give him sufficient mandate to carry the party and nation through the difficult bits to come? He's better at politics, sure. He'll push back on trash talk, whereas Starmer's temperament and life experience is to attempt to swallow it.
But the constraints on Starmer's government haven't gone away.
Tories are quite entitled to enjoy their first bit of good news since before the Brexit vote.
BTW it does seem that Kemi Badenoch is cutting through, she featured very positively in the recent episode of the News Agents, where a focus group member described her as Thatcher with a sense of humour. Whilst said voter could not currently vote Tory, the potential is clearly there.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
Yes, I got it wrong on Aberdeen South, but my point was that the Holyrood constituency was not congruous with the Westminster one as many were saying.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
Yes, I got it wrong on Aberdeen South, but my point was that the Holyrood constituency was not congruous with the Westminster one as many were saying.
You should have stopped after the first five words 😉
BTW I meant to ask you, what was your opinion of Jordan James when he was with you ? He was at Blues and looked like a star in the making. Went abroad to better himself. Seems to have done little of note since then and was loaned to your boys in a difficult season.
He was the only decent player in our side last season. It was when he was injured and out of the side that we lost every match. It was losing him to injury rather than managerial changes that got us relegated.
He is easily good enough for the Premier League, and I do not think his injury a long term issue.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
Yes, I got it wrong on Aberdeen South, but my point was that the Holyrood constituency was not congruous with the Westminster one as many were saying.
Which makes it an even better result for the Tories than it is on the face of it then.
He was poo-poohed by a number of regulars on here, who I won't embarass by naming them.
Very dangerous behaviour
General Melchett: Is this true, Blackadder? Did Captain Darling pooh-pooh you?
Captain Blackadder: Well, perhaps a little.
General Melchett: Well, then, damn it all! What more evidence do you need? The pooh-poohing alone is a court martial offense!
Captain Blackadder: I can assure you, sir, that the pooh-poohing was purely circumstantial.
General Melchett: Well, I hope so, Blackadder. You know, if there's one thing I've learnt from being in the Army, it's never ignore a pooh-pooh. I knew a Major, who got pooh-poohed, made the mistake of ignoring the pooh-pooh. He pooh-poohed it! Fatal error! 'Cos it turned out all along that the soldier who pooh-poohed him had been pooh-poohing a lot of other officers who pooh-poohed their pooh-poohs. In the end, we had to disband the regiment. Morale totally destroyed... by pooh-pooh!
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
However people want to loo, at it, this really was a good result for the Blue team.
Clearly so. A win is a win, and beating Reform.
Perhaps the most interesting contest is now the GM Mayor byelection. That covers a big area of the NW, and Labour is going to need a strong candidate. How the Tories do there will be interesting.
You know what, I think the recriminations in Reform will be interesting.
I’ve challenged people,who called peak reform, like people who call the top of the stock market all the time, but I think @Big_G_NorthWales may be right, this is their high water mark. They did poorly yesterday in council by elections too.
Restore will deprive them of more seats than tactical voting.
Tories are quite entitled to enjoy their first bit of good news since before the Brexit vote.
BTW it does seem that Kemi Badenoch is cutting through, she featured very positively in the recent episode of the News Agents, where a focus group member described her as Thatcher with a sense of humour. Whilst said voter could not currently vote Tory, the potential is clearly there.
The Tories can probably aim to get to 25% at the next election and, if they're very lucky, 200 seats. There's a scenario where Labour disappoint still further and Reform repulse.
I'd say steady as she goes for Kemi. The next election, bar a miracle, won't be about 40% and a clear overall majority for her.
The online global far right will find their angle on Burnham and will land an absolutely fucking brutal bucket of total lies and half truths again. Reform, The Telegraph, the Tories and many others will take many elements of their borderline Nazistic lead.
Burnham lands alongside an Olivia Rodrigo album with a seriously parabolic trajectory. Let's hope we can prevent Burnham from mirroring that trajectory.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
Yes, I got it wrong on Aberdeen South, but my point was that the Holyrood constituency was not congruous with the Westminster one as many were saying.
Which makes it an even better result for the Tories than it is on the face of it then.
Yes, I think that a fair assessment. Squeezing the Unionist tactical vote and campaigning on oil may not work elsewhere though, even in Scotland.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
However people want to loo, at it, this really was a good result for the Blue team.
Clearly so. A win is a win, and beating Reform.
Perhaps the most interesting contest is now the GM Mayor byelection. That covers a big area of the NW, and Labour is going to need a strong candidate. How the Tories do there will be interesting.
You know what, I think the recriminations in Reform will be interesting.
I’ve challenged people,who called peak reform, like people who call the top of the stock market all the time, but I think @Big_G_NorthWales may be right, this is their high water mark. They did poorly yesterday in council by elections too.
Restore will deprive them of more seats than tactical voting.
Reverse Toried, you love to see it.
Or Restore disappear as they become ever more obviously racist. There's a market for that of millions, but not tens of millions
Tories are quite entitled to enjoy their first bit of good news since before the Brexit vote.
BTW it does seem that Kemi Badenoch is cutting through, she featured very positively in the recent episode of the News Agents, where a focus group member described her as Thatcher with a sense of humour. Whilst said voter could not currently vote Tory, the potential is clearly there.
The Tories can probably aim to get to 25% at the next election and, if they're very lucky, 200 seats. There's a scenario where Labour disappoint still further and Reform repulse.
I'd say steady as she goes for Kemi. The next election, bar a miracle, won't be about 40% and a clear overall majority for her.
If you buy the notion that today our politics is presidential layered over a parliamentary system, big swings like Mark Carneys are possible.
Yes the Tory brand is still a disadvantage, but she is clearly an asset. I reckon it could flip. Unlikely but possible.
Ironically a similar Burnham Labour might help her.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
However people want to loo, at it, this really was a good result for the Blue team.
Clearly so. A win is a win, and beating Reform.
Perhaps the most interesting contest is now the GM Mayor byelection. That covers a big area of the NW, and Labour is going to need a strong candidate. How the Tories do there will be interesting.
You know what, I think the recriminations in Reform will be interesting.
I’ve challenged people,who called peak reform, like people who call the top of the stock market all the time, but I think @Big_G_NorthWales may be right, this is their high water mark. They did poorly yesterday in council by elections too.
Restore will deprive them of more seats than tactical voting.
Reverse Toried, you love to see it.
Or Restore disappear as they become ever more obviously racist. There's a market for that of millions, but not tens of millions
They’re vile. I’m disappointed they got as many as they did. Clearly a Nasty racist far right party.
Tories are quite entitled to enjoy their first bit of good news since before the Brexit vote.
BTW it does seem that Kemi Badenoch is cutting through, she featured very positively in the recent episode of the News Agents, where a focus group member described her as Thatcher with a sense of humour. Whilst said voter could not currently vote Tory, the potential is clearly there.
I suspect a great deal of the cut through is smoke and mirrors. If I were a Tory desperate for a win at the next General Election I would be disappointed that she now has her feet firmly under the table. I don't think her arrogance and unquestioned self belief will not go down well under scrutiny. But then I have no intention of voting for her so it is none of my business.
All roads lead to Burnham becoming PM so he really should accept the inevitable.
Politics is a cruel game but rightly or wrongly most of the public seem to viscerally loathe Starmer and it’s hard to see how you could turn that around .
Whether Burnhams better popularity can survive when he becomes PM is another matter .
Oh come, come, come.
This result is a triumph for Starmer. Could Burnham have won without a popular figure like SKS in Number Ten?
Which makes it a triumph for Rupert Lowe
1) Starmer uses this famous victory to stay on 2) This strengths the Axis of Meme Parties 3) Reform will fall over shortly 4) Leading to Restore getting all their votes
Getting 3k votes is actually 29 dimensional chess move that guarantees a Restore government at the next election.
So now I don't feel so bad, sharing my losing bet with the true master of value losers....after Casino said (sorry I can't get quote to work properly):
I was expecting about 4% for them, and bet on them getting <5% accordingly.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
He could do worse than shamelessly stealing some oft quoted ideas from here.
Like merging income tax and national insurance for starters.
Really disappointing result for Restore. They'll shortly join Alba and Change UK in the discarded parties bin, which in many ways is the best news of the night.
For the party’s first ever foray into a Westminster election, I would say 7% is pretty good. Alba couldn’t manage 2% in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election and their best 2024 performance was 3%. Likewise, Change UK got 3.4% in the 2019 Euro elections. Soubry got 8.5% in Broxtowe at the general, but that was as the sitting MP (Gapes similar).
Also, I don’t think Restore are playing quite the same game. Their intent isn’t to win. Their intent is to keep Rupert Lowe’s social media income up.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
Not entirely true. Starmer's in love with digital ID and ruinous, technologically deficient authoritarianism,
Tories are quite entitled to enjoy their first bit of good news since before the Brexit vote.
BTW it does seem that Kemi Badenoch is cutting through, she featured very positively in the recent episode of the News Agents, where a focus group member described her as Thatcher with a sense of humour. Whilst said voter could not currently vote Tory, the potential is clearly there.
I suspect a great deal of the cut through is smoke and mirrors. If I were a Tory desperate for a win at the next General Election I would be disappointed that she now has her feet firmly under the table. I don't think her arrogance and unquestioned self belief will not go down well under scrutiny. But then I have no intention of voting for her so it is none of my business.
My hunch is that it’s real. She’s popular with her own tribe in a way Hague and Milliband were as LoO.
Don’t begrudge her arrogant self belief, which is a necessity in her position post defeat.
The question is can she reach beyond her tribe. Some hints of that. But still only hints. She might struggle with Burnham.
Really disappointing result for Restore. They'll shortly join Alba and Change UK in the discarded parties bin, which in many ways is the best news of the night.
For the party’s first ever foray into a Westminster election, I would say 7% is pretty good. Alba couldn’t manage 2% in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election and their best 2024 performance was 3%. Likewise, Change UK got 3.4% in the 2019 Euro elections. Soubry got 8.5% in Broxtowe at the general, but that was as the sitting MP (Gapes similar).
Also, I don’t think Restore are playing quite the same game. Their intent isn’t to win. Their intent is to keep Rupert Lowe’s social media income up.
Sadly yes, for a totally trivial outfit holding the deposit is not inconsequential.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
Not entirely true. Starmer's in love with digital ID and ruinous, technologically deficient authoritarianism,
Those should be popular with the public tendency, making his unpopularity more notable.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
He could do worse than shamelessly stealing some oft quoted ideas from here.
Like merging income tax and national insurance for starters.
It’s perfectly possible to come up with left and left adjacent policies that deal with various issues.
The requirement is to have a leader. A leader takes on policies, find subordinates to manage them and backs those subordinates to get them done.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
Whilst I don’t disagree, nowhere did I make a suggestion about the rest of the UK or predicted a renaissance of Scottish Toryism. I love the idea of sane parties joining forces to oust the divisive SNP and Reform people, but in Scotland at least that’s easy to say and hard to do.
Tories won Aberdeen South because they won votes from all non-SNP voters. That’s self evident.
Really disappointing result for Restore. They'll shortly join Alba and Change UK in the discarded parties bin, which in many ways is the best news of the night.
For the party’s first ever foray into a Westminster election, I would say 7% is pretty good. Alba couldn’t manage 2% in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election and their best 2024 performance was 3%. Likewise, Change UK got 3.4% in the 2019 Euro elections. Soubry got 8.5% in Broxtowe at the general, but that was as the sitting MP (Gapes similar).
Also, I don’t think Restore are playing quite the same game. Their intent isn’t to win. Their intent is to keep Rupert Lowe’s social media income up.
One point I would make on Restore is that Makerfield has a history of relatively strong support for racist far right parties. The BNP used to be quite well supported there. So I think this may actually be quite a poor showing by them, in that context. Which is a shame, obviously.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
Yes, I got it wrong on Aberdeen South, but my point was that the Holyrood constituency was not congruous with the Westminster one as many were saying.
Which makes it an even better result for the Tories than it is on the face of it then.
Yes, I think that a fair assessment. Squeezing the Unionist tactical vote and campaigning on oil may not work elsewhere though, even in Scotland.
It’s a stunning result. It would be good to get some detailed polling on what happened - is this Labour switching to Conservative, or a highly efficient Reform/Conservative consolidation, + Labour voters just not turning out at all?
I think the latter is more likely but either way highly consequential on how the Conservatives position themselves over the next 3 years.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
Not entirely true. Starmer's in love with digital ID and ruinous, technologically deficient authoritarianism,
Those should be popular with the public tendency, making his unpopularity more notable.
It'd help if we had a media that wasn't either thick as pigshit or complicit in a desire by the Government to track the proletariat scum and force them to take on digital ID or upload personal documents to do almost anything on the internet.
As a mayor i hope Andy can turbocharge devolution and make it less a way for Whitehall to make regions dance and compete for limited pots of funding.
Unfortunately that will further delay the programme, which is already oddly slow even for areas which are straightforward like the proposed Wessex which needs no local government reorganisation.
Really disappointing result for Restore. They'll shortly join Alba and Change UK in the discarded parties bin, which in many ways is the best news of the night.
For the party’s first ever foray into a Westminster election, I would say 7% is pretty good. Alba couldn’t manage 2% in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election and their best 2024 performance was 3%. Likewise, Change UK got 3.4% in the 2019 Euro elections. Soubry got 8.5% in Broxtowe at the general, but that was as the sitting MP (Gapes similar).
Also, I don’t think Restore are playing quite the same game. Their intent isn’t to win. Their intent is to keep Rupert Lowe’s social media income up.
And block Farage from getting power.
The thing is we won't see most of Restore's advertising as it's targeting Reform likely voters.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
However people want to loo, at it, this really was a good result for the Blue team.
Clearly so. A win is a win, and beating Reform.
Perhaps the most interesting contest is now the GM Mayor byelection. That covers a big area of the NW, and Labour is going to need a strong candidate. How the Tories do there will be interesting.
You know what, I think the recriminations in Reform will be interesting.
I’ve challenged people,who called peak reform, like people who call the top of the stock market all the time, but I think @Big_G_NorthWales may be right, this is their high water mark. They did poorly yesterday in council by elections too.
Restore will deprive them of more seats than tactical voting.
Hang on this isn’t peak reform, they’ve been sliding all year.
Morning all! Let’s talk Aberdeen South first. SNP absolutely scunnered by the usual collapse in SNP vote combined with all other party voters going tactical to oust them. Exactly what I was discussing with Tory activists at the Aberdeen count for the Holyrood election a few weeks.
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
I think that over egging it in Aberdeen South. The SNP vote was down 4%, and SLAB down 19% but the turnout was down a massive 28% at 31%.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
You called it wrong. Badly.
Show some humility and admit it.
However people want to loo, at it, this really was a good result for the Blue team.
Clearly so. A win is a win, and beating Reform.
Perhaps the most interesting contest is now the GM Mayor byelection. That covers a big area of the NW, and Labour is going to need a strong candidate. How the Tories do there will be interesting.
You know what, I think the recriminations in Reform will be interesting.
I’ve challenged people,who called peak reform, like people who call the top of the stock market all the time, but I think @Big_G_NorthWales may be right, this is their high water mark. They did poorly yesterday in council by elections too.
Restore will deprive them of more seats than tactical voting.
Hang on this isn’t peak reform, they’ve been sliding all year.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
He could do worse than shamelessly stealing some oft quoted ideas from here.
Like merging income tax and national insurance for starters.
It’s perfectly possible to come up with left and left adjacent policies that deal with various issues.
The requirement is to have a leader. A leader takes on policies, find subordinates to manage them and backs those subordinates to get them done.
Starmer has repeatedly failed at the last two.
Like Truss the very fact of being ousted so soon would demonstrate unsuitability for the role. PMs have to be able to rise above challenges.
Good luck to the new PM on increasing health, welfare, and defence spending to keep the MPs happy, without any cuts.
Oh, and whilst reopening the assusted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
People here constantly emphasise the challenges.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Fair point. The Starmer government seemed bereft of ideas and tentative from the start.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
Eh? This is Andy Burnham we're talking about.
He has already implied giving WASPI women money then reverse ferreted when pushed. Nit sure if he has the stomach to take risks or not.
Comments
The inertia is so marked he needs to go immediately, but should he be given his two years as a consolation prize?
Icing on their crumbs from May, for sure.
I forget who tipped it alas, but thanks to whoever mentioned the Conservatives at 3 or so for Aberdeen South
My considered analysis of Makerfield is that Reform do not like it up 'em.
Also: LOL.
https://bsky.app/profile/pbump.com/post/3moma4mmzk22z
Well done to Kemi and the Conservatives. It would otherwise have been their night.
Burnham thrashed Kenyon, and the Labour vote comfortably exceeded the total of Reform and Restore. Talking up a close contest was clearly just the usual by-election GOTV effort and to be taken with a shovel full of salt.
A good result for the Tories in Aberdeen South, clearly driven by the oil industry vote and unionist tactical voting. Good to see Reform flopping both there and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
I was expecting about 4% for them, and bet on them getting <5% accordingly.
Edited extra bit: and thanks, Mr. Pete, for pointing out it was Mr. JS with the wise tip.
Whether a man who has never knowingly said "no" to a voter will thrive in a role where saying "no" is a core part of the job is another matter.
As Shakespeare almost put it.
Right after he's fed the five thousand in Eccles.
I think that the very efficient Labour vote and Ming Vase strategy of Labour in the GE failed to get out the Labour vote in places like Makerfield, partly because of its lack of ambition and partly because a walkover was expected.
GOTV is going to be key at the next GE and clear choices for the tactical voter to beat Reform. In most seats that will be Labour.
Aberdeen South - what a result.
A career in comedy?
People like me voting Tory - or them voting Labour or LibDem - is how we stop the nationalist menace. Can I also gently remind our Tory friends on here who rightly want to talk bout how their oil and gas policies won this that their previous policies were the same as SNP and Labour policies…
Congratulations to James Adams who gets elected to Holyrood in Lumsden’s place.
It's interesting how closely this #ThePolitics result mirrors the 2019 GE. Reform taking the Conservative Party vote share and Restore the Brexit Party Share.
https://bsky.app/profile/leftback.bsky.social/post/3momgx37yq224
Makerfield always had the Conservatives in a distant but solid second place- 30% in good years, 20% in bad ones. It may upset some to say it, but a lot of those voters were happy to go for something harder, once it was offered in a suit.
He was poo-poohed by a number of regulars on here, who I won't embarass by naming them.
She said voters had "rejected the politics of division and hate" and made it clear that Scotland's future "lies with independence".
I thought Kenyon was a reasonable candidate and remain unimpressed by Burnham. I said before he was a Southerner's idea of a Northerner and he still looks like that to me.
It is clear Labour did no work at all in this constituency during the GE - after all they didn't need to so that suggests their 2024 vote was understated for ultra safe constituencies.
Excellent news from Scotland and in many ways just as convincing a win as Makerfield.
I still don't get my head around Restore in Makerfield, what was all that ? Was it false flagging from Labour ? At least it didn't affect the result.
Burnham made the election about himself, and he won, well done for him. Nigel was probably not an asset for Reform. The Right needs to get its house in order, "A House divided against itself cannot stand" and it is about time we remembered Ronald Reagan, "Republican shall not speak ill of Republican". Hopefully Nigel will be beginning to bear that in mind otherwise I can see him wringing yet another crushing defeat out of the jaws of victory - that is what he did in Makerfield.
This result is a triumph for Starmer. Could Burnham have won without a popular figure like SKS in Number Ten?
Still, a win is a win.
Those are the headlines.
If I hadn't been feeling pessimistic and backed Conservatives yesterday at 4.5 in Aberdeen South it would've been even better.
The loonies are just loony and in a slightly cringe way.
It's all a bit Morecambe and Wise, and a bit anachronistic.
So tactical voting, but also voters in Scotland much less interested in Westminster politics than Holyrood, particularly SNP voters.
I am not convinced this good result for the Tories is generalisable even to other parts of Scotland, let alone the rest of the UK.
We’re in a presidential politics age , albeit one layered over a parliamentary system.
No, i don't let being totally wrong in Aberdeen slow down the confidence of my predictions. I'm a pubdit!
I'm sure a gracious and humble apology will be forthcoming, though.
Show some humility and admit it.
And utterly delightful to see the British voter to tell foreign influencers dressed in union jacks to naff off.
It will be interesting if they think Burnham is a genuine threat or not.
As though I'm pessimistic on the Tories, if Reform are not 1st nationally they mighrmt drop another 5 to the Tories purely from former loyalists who no longer believe Reform can win.
Oh you didn't mean the SNP there? Sorry, easy mistake to make.
BTW I meant to ask you, what was your opinion of Jordan James when he was with you ? He was at Blues and looked like a star in the making. Went abroad to better himself. Seems to have done little of note since then and was loaned to your boys in a difficult season.
Perhaps the most interesting contest is now the GM Mayor byelection. That covers a big area of the NW, and Labour is going to need a strong candidate. How the Tories do there will be interesting.
Right.
But the constraints on Starmer's government haven't gone away.
BTW it does seem that Kemi Badenoch is cutting through, she featured very positively in the recent episode of the News Agents, where a focus group member described her as Thatcher with a sense of humour. Whilst said voter could not currently vote Tory, the potential is clearly there.
He is easily good enough for the Premier League, and I do not think his injury a long term issue.
General Melchett: Is this true, Blackadder? Did Captain Darling pooh-pooh you?
Captain Blackadder: Well, perhaps a little.
General Melchett: Well, then, damn it all! What more evidence do you need? The pooh-poohing alone is a court martial offense!
Captain Blackadder: I can assure you, sir, that the pooh-poohing was purely circumstantial.
General Melchett: Well, I hope so, Blackadder. You know, if there's one thing I've learnt from being in the Army, it's never ignore a pooh-pooh. I knew a Major, who got pooh-poohed, made the mistake of ignoring the pooh-pooh. He pooh-poohed it! Fatal error! 'Cos it turned out all along that the soldier who pooh-poohed him had been pooh-poohing a lot of other officers who pooh-poohed their pooh-poohs. In the end, we had to disband the regiment. Morale totally destroyed... by pooh-pooh!
Oh, and whilst reopening the assisted suicide debate.
Vibes theory of governing being more important may be proven.
I’ve challenged people,who called peak reform, like people who call the top of the stock market all the time, but I think @Big_G_NorthWales may be right, this is their high water mark. They did poorly yesterday in council by elections too.
Restore will deprive them of more seats than tactical voting.
I'd say steady as she goes for Kemi. The next election, bar a miracle, won't be about 40% and a clear overall majority for her.
The ones in Saltires are Iranians.
Easy to get confused.
The online global far right will find their angle on Burnham and will land an absolutely fucking brutal bucket of total lies and half truths again. Reform, The Telegraph, the Tories and many others will take many elements of their borderline Nazistic lead.
Burnham lands alongside an Olivia Rodrigo album with a seriously parabolic trajectory. Let's hope we can prevent Burnham from mirroring that trajectory.
However its worth noting the upside.
The new PM is going to have 2.5 years in Downing Street with a landslide majority.
If you can't make it work with a landslide majority, you don't deserve another term.
Andy Burnham
The Labour Party
The Conservative Party.
A bad night for:
Reform UK
Keir Starmer
Wes Streeting
The SNP.
A consequential moment for all of us.
Or Restore disappear as they become ever more obviously racist. There's a market for that of millions, but not tens of millions
Yes the Tory brand is still a disadvantage, but she is clearly an asset. I reckon it could flip. Unlikely but possible.
Ironically a similar Burnham Labour might help her.
I suspect the economy could pick up too.
1) Starmer uses this famous victory to stay on
2) This strengths the Axis of Meme Parties
3) Reform will fall over shortly
4) Leading to Restore getting all their votes
Getting 3k votes is actually 29 dimensional chess move that guarantees a Restore government at the next election.
I was expecting about 4% for them, and bet on them getting <5% accordingly.
The MPs want to be led, and they will take chances if they have confidence in who leads them. Andy should go bold and tell them they trusted him to save the party, they need to trust him even if a proposal might sound unpopular. Go big.
What though? There's no money left, for real this time.
Like merging income tax and national insurance for starters.
Also, I don’t think Restore are playing quite the same game. Their intent isn’t to win. Their intent is to keep Rupert Lowe’s social media income up.
My hunch is that it’s real. She’s popular with her own tribe in a way Hague and Milliband were as LoO.
Don’t begrudge her arrogant self belief, which is a necessity in her position post defeat.
The question is can she reach beyond her tribe. Some hints of that. But still only hints. She might struggle with Burnham.
The requirement is to have a leader. A leader takes on policies, find subordinates to manage them and backs those subordinates to get them done.
Starmer has repeatedly failed at the last two.
Tories won Aberdeen South because they won votes from all non-SNP voters. That’s self evident.
I think the latter is more likely but either way highly consequential on how the Conservatives position themselves over the next 3 years.
Unfortunately that will further delay the programme, which is already oddly slow even for areas which are straightforward like the proposed Wessex which needs no local government reorganisation.
The thing is we won't see most of Restore's advertising as it's targeting Reform likely voters.