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Why the polls might be underestimating Burnham – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 34,064

    Nigelb said:

    Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/exclusive-burnham-team-convince-ministers-delay-resignations-avoid-chaos
    ..Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.

    “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.

    “Andy won’t be launching an immediate challenge or laying down the gauntlet in the early hours of Friday or over the weekend. He wants it to be as bloodless as possible.”

    The Guardian can reveal that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain sceptical he has the numbers – in Makerfield on Monday. Aides denied there had been a Granita-style pact over the timing of any contest.

    The pair had independently come to the view that Starmer should be given time to reflect on his position, they said. “No deals were done,” one source said.


    Starmer has said he expects to talk to Burnham “after the weekend”. But close allies of the Labour mayor warned that clinging on to power for more than a few weeks would result in Burnham triggering a contest.

    “We would rather this happens in a dignified and respectful way. There are big challenges facing the country so it would be much better … But if he digs in at Downing Street then we’ll force him out,” a senior campaign figure said..

    No, he ain't arrogant. Not one little bit.

    Come on voters of Makerfield - you've got a chance to burst his bubble.
    Not going to happen - although I suspect Restore will have had an impact on the final result.

    I don’t get the idea of SKS reflecting on his position - to retain the Manchester Mayor, Burnham needs to be in No 10 before that election finishes
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,544
    fitalass said:

    Well done England, we enjoyed the match.

    The Times - Granite city dismay at ‘empty promises’ puts by-election up for grabs
    'Every voter interviewed by a focus group in Aberdeen South prioritised oil and gas, which the Conservatives are hoping will steer them to victory'
    https://www.thetimes.com/article/9bfa3ee6-eed0-409c-bd52-2f244bc840b0?shareToken=ef84e901d55d0fa066eaa30daf9139b3

    WTF will ineffectual English led Tories do to change anything in Scotland. They will bend the knee and butt lick London's butt as they always have done. You woudl think those clowns up there would have got the picture by now but they seem to like to be rogered by English parties.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 19,732
    carnforth said:

    "Point 6: Money for Iran reconstruction
    The sixth point of the MoU says the US and regional partners will develop a "definitive, mutually agreed plan" worth at least $300bn (£224bn) for reconstruction and economic development in Iran.
    The final mechanism will be agreed within 60 days of the final deal, and all licences, waivers and permissions will be granted by the US.
    However, this does not mean the US will be financially involved.
    One official noted that the US is not required to pay "a cent of money" to Iran, or contribute to the fund.
    As a hypothetical example, the official said that if Iran "behaves", Emirati authorities could build a power plant in Iran, with US blessing.
    Trump and other officials have gone to great lengths to make clear to the US public that it will not be paying Iran directly, which the administration says stands in stark contrast to the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the Obama administration."

    So the stuff about Trump paying billions to Iran was guff?

    Of course it was guff, if anyone actually said this.

    Trump always gets other people to pay. Always.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,576
    Nigelb said:

    It looks as though China might have been better prepared for Trump's war than was Trump (or us).

    Fascinating argument by Bloomberg's top energy analyst Javier Blas 👇: he argues that China effectively saved the world economy during the Iran war by absorbing the brunt of the global oil supply shock on its own, without visible economic damage.

    According to his calculations, China "cut its average daily waterborne oil imports by the same amount as the combined oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK."

    And, still according to Blas, they "did so without suffering economic harm" because they could rely on many levers: their huge strategic petroleum reserve, a massive surge in EV usage, their remaining coal-fired electricity capacity, and coal-to-chemicals replacing lost feedstocks...

    https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/2067153947257930227

    Coal gasification followed by sour water gas shift acid gas removal using Rectisol or maybe Selexol, a sulphur recovery unit or maybe sulphuric acid plant on the side, then supply the syngas to Fischer Tropsch or methanol synthesis.

    Fancy a country with domestic coal reserves making use of them rather than leaving them in the ground and relying on oil and gas imports.

    (You can add CCS relatively easily, as the CO2 is being extracted from the syngas anyway.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 35,378
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Good luck to Andy Burnham today.

    We need somebody who can take on Reform and prevent them getting power.

    Starmer is clearly not up to that task.

    You reckon Burnham is ?

    I hope he is but I just think he’s a more charismatic version of Starmer.
    I don't think he's up to it. But Starmer has got to go.
    Starmer is herpes.

    Burnham is syphilis.

    You don't really want either, but if you have to choose...
    The only thing worse would be a brand new strain featuring both of them, called herpiphilis.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 23,029
    edited 7:20AM
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/exclusive-burnham-team-convince-ministers-delay-resignations-avoid-chaos
    ..Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.

    “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.

    “Andy won’t be launching an immediate challenge or laying down the gauntlet in the early hours of Friday or over the weekend. He wants it to be as bloodless as possible.”

    The Guardian can reveal that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain sceptical he has the numbers – in Makerfield on Monday. Aides denied there had been a Granita-style pact over the timing of any contest.

    The pair had independently come to the view that Starmer should be given time to reflect on his position, they said. “No deals were done,” one source said.


    Starmer has said he expects to talk to Burnham “after the weekend”. But close allies of the Labour mayor warned that clinging on to power for more than a few weeks would result in Burnham triggering a contest.

    “We would rather this happens in a dignified and respectful way. There are big challenges facing the country so it would be much better … But if he digs in at Downing Street then we’ll force him out,” a senior campaign figure said..

    No, he ain't arrogant. Not one little bit.

    Come on voters of Makerfield - you've got a chance to burst his bubble.
    Not going to happen - although I suspect Restore will have had an impact on the final result.

    I don’t get the idea of SKS reflecting on his position - to retain the Manchester Mayor, Burnham needs to be in No 10 before that election finishes
    It's significantly easier for Labour now that the elections have gone back to SV, which is one of the bits of choreography that's gone on here without anyone wanting to admit it.

    The rest of it is fairly classic bullying- quite possibly not Burnham himself, but Burnham's (political) kids trashing Starmer's lawn with their scooters because it lets them cosplay Malcolm Tucker/Francis Urquhart.

    None of which means that Burnham hasn't been an utter dick for pretty much the entirety of Starmer's premiership.

    Can the panel think of any other examples of someone convinced that they were born to rule, who walked away when the leadership was open to them and then spent a lot of their time throwing bricks at the decent but inadequate sap who stepped into the breach?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,452

    Greater chance than ever of Trump going after Cuba, chasing a win after this self-inflicted debacle.

    It's less than 200km from Cuba to Key West, Miami is just over 300km.

    I have no idea what drone capability Cuba has, but it wouldn't take much for an attempted intervention in Cuba to become an even greater humiliation for Trump.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,096

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Burnham team tell ministers to delay resignations to avoid chaos

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/17/exclusive-burnham-team-convince-ministers-delay-resignations-avoid-chaos
    ..Supporters of Burnham expect senior cabinet ministers to tell the prime minister over the weekend to agree to a handover of power, rather than fighting a bitter leadership contest that could stretch on for months.

    “We want to give Keir time and space to come to terms with the reality of his situation. Andy wants a managed transition. It’s what Labour MPs want. We need to keep the government on track,” a close Burnham ally said.

    “Andy won’t be launching an immediate challenge or laying down the gauntlet in the early hours of Friday or over the weekend. He wants it to be as bloodless as possible.”

    The Guardian can reveal that Burnham met Wes Streeting in secret – a putative leadership rival even though many MPs remain sceptical he has the numbers – in Makerfield on Monday. Aides denied there had been a Granita-style pact over the timing of any contest.

    The pair had independently come to the view that Starmer should be given time to reflect on his position, they said. “No deals were done,” one source said.


    Starmer has said he expects to talk to Burnham “after the weekend”. But close allies of the Labour mayor warned that clinging on to power for more than a few weeks would result in Burnham triggering a contest.

    “We would rather this happens in a dignified and respectful way. There are big challenges facing the country so it would be much better … But if he digs in at Downing Street then we’ll force him out,” a senior campaign figure said..

    No, he ain't arrogant. Not one little bit.

    Come on voters of Makerfield - you've got a chance to burst his bubble.
    Not going to happen - although I suspect Restore will have had an impact on the final result.

    I don’t get the idea of SKS reflecting on his position - to retain the Manchester Mayor, Burnham needs to be in No 10 before that election finishes
    It's significantly easier for Labour now that the elections have gone back to SV, which is one of the bits of choreography that's gone on here without anyone wanting to admit it.

    The rest of it is fairly classic bullying- quite possibly not Burnham himself, but Burnham's (political) kids trashing Starmer's lawn with their scooters because it lets them cosplay Malcolm Tucker/Francis Urquhart.

    None of which means that Burnham hasn't been an utter dick for pretty much the entirety of Starmer's premiership.

    Can the panel.think of any other examples of someone convinced that they were born to rule, who walked away when the leadership was open to them and then spent a lot of their time throwing bricks at the decent but inadequate sap who stepped into the breach?
    Tyrion Lanister?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,387
    malcolmg said:

    Ummm..



    This appears to be real…?

    look at the state of those weeds , lazy barsteward with no personal pride
    Council weeds biodiversity as they are not within the curtilidge.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,030
    Interesting interview with the CEO of ASML.

    https://x.com/dnystedt/status/2067449915572400543
    ..Europe “quite behind” the United States and China
    “If we compare how we do on the entire ecosystem versus the US and China, I think the US today is a clear winner. They are looking at champions across the AI semi ecosystem. I think the one place they were missing a bit out was manufacturing and they have been extremely aggressive in bringing some key companies to manufacture in the US. They can do that because they buy chips - 80% of the advanced chips manufactured worldwide are bought by the United States. So, I think the US is doing very, very well.”
    “China has been investing also across the entire ecosystem. I think most probably, they do very well on the application side, a bit less on what’s before that. But they are driving the use of AI probably more aggressively than any other country.”
    “And again, when you look at Europe, a lot of holes. I would say, possibly quite behind compared to what is happening today.”
    Europe Must Shore Up Supply Chain
    “Strategically, if you don’t have a big enough of part of a certain ecosystem – in this case, AI, you’re going to be exposed to the goodwill of other parties,” he said.
    He said it’s important to understand that you must have innovation first in order to get sovereignty. So, it’s more important to make sure innovation can happen in Europe...


    Europe, in this context, very much includes us.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,848

    NEW THREAD

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 8,281
    edited 7:29AM

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    It’s a pretty good picture, and there’s video too!

    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067456010025918789
    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067462120120189002

    There’s at least four or five large fires at the site now, looks somewhat apocalyptic.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726
    Yes, and this refinery is only 16km (10 miles) from Red Square. Not far at all.
    More at risk must be St. Basils, given the Russians trashed the Kyiv Cathedral.
    Er, St Basil's is in Red Square.

    It's a pretty church but the Moscow Kremlin is far more a symbol of the Russian state. And still contains government buildings, including a residence of the President, so arguably a legitimate target.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,452

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    It’s a pretty good picture, and there’s video too!

    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067456010025918789
    https://x.com/tendar/status/2067462120120189002

    There’s at least four or five large fires at the site now, looks somewhat apocalyptic.

    https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2067449379816902726
    Yes, and this refinery is only 16km (10 miles) from Red Square. Not far at all.
    More at risk must be St. Basils, given the Russians trashed the Kyiv Cathedral.
    Er, St Basil's is in Red Square.

    It's a pretty church but the Moscow Kremlin is far more a symbol of the Russian state. And still contains government buildings, including a residence of the President, so arguably a legitimate target.
    My main point with the distance to Red Square was not that drones would be heading for Lenin's mausoleum, but that the huge plume of smoke from the refinery fire will be oppressively visible from most of Moscow.

    The war is coming home. Twenty-six years of Putin, never stopped corruption...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 17,621
    Battlebus said:

    malcolmg said:

    Ummm..



    This appears to be real…?

    look at the state of those weeds , lazy barsteward with no personal pride
    Council weeds biodiversity as they are not within the curtilidge.
    @bondegezou 's photo captures an important point. These people hate Labour. That's their primary motivation for voting Reform. They don't care whether Reform are any good. Reform's unique and only selling point is that they might beat Labour.
    This sort of tribalism shouldn't be that hard to relate to for Mr. 'Never kissed a Tory', even if he positions himself as more collegiate these days.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,519
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Happy Day 3 of Moscow oil refinery being on fire!

    https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/2067482310006411769

    Nice top hat on that storage tank.

    I think the photo is worth sharing on here.


    I would guess this photo will get used in plenty of places as the definitive image of Ukraine's campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.
    That flying saucer looks about to crash...
    It's surely cheating for the Ukrainians to have enlisted actual aliens to fight alongside them.
    Trump must have said, "sorry we can't help you, but we know some people who can....." ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,519
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    2 out of 3 is not bad Andy
    I would say

    Aberdeen South close SNP hold.
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry easy SNP hold
    Makerfield easy Labour win by 5k+
    My feeling also
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,544
    DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    My prediction for tomorrow's by-elections

    Aberdeen South -> Con gain from SNP
    Arbroath & Broughton Ferry -> SNP hold (with strong Ref UK performance)
    Makerfield -> very narrow Lab hold

    2 out of 3 is not bad Andy
    I would say

    Aberdeen South close SNP hold.
    Arbroath and Broughty Ferry easy SNP hold
    Makerfield easy Labour win by 5k+
    I would agree David.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 46,544
    Battlebus said:

    malcolmg said:

    Ummm..



    This appears to be real…?

    look at the state of those weeds , lazy barsteward with no personal pride
    Council weeds biodiversity as they are not within the curtilidge.
    Still anyone with an ounce of moral fibre would have them removed tout suite, an eyesore and partly explains his obscene banner, a knuckle dragging moron.
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