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Why the polls might be underestimating Burnham – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 13,196
edited 2:43PM in General
Why the polls might be underestimating Burnham – politicalbetting.com

Past vote recall in the Makerfield polling is interesting because more people are remembering voting Labour in the 2024 general election, which is getting impacted by voting for Andy Burnham in May 2024 in Greater Manchester mayoral election.

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Comments

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,344
    First like AB tomorrow
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 690
    2nd like reform
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    3rd like an also ran squeezed by tactical posting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605
    Whose voters are going to have the bigger hangovers tomorrow morning when they should be voting?
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 1,068
    @TheScreamingEagles typo in thingy, should be 59.99 not 55.99
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,798
    a
    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    On the riots in Belfast and the failure to tackle Loyalist groups: https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/elon-musk-belfast-pogrom-lee-hurley

    But the Peace Process is so wonderful!
    Yes it is with some reasonably obvious caveats. Would you want to return to the car bombs exploding outside the Europa Hotel every five minutes?
    So race riots are an acceptable price?

    Or should we risk a certain amount of disorder to clamp down on criminal behaviour?
    I added provisos but I stand by my evaluation.

    Perfect is the enemy of good.
    Which is the kind of reasoning that has been used to avoid dealing with gangsters running the streets.

    The belief that any kind of law enforcement against them “risks the peace process”
    But most people think that's not the case and we could have a bit more law enforcement without any jeopardy to the peace process. Whereas you appear to think that the entire peace process was a mistake.
    Which is exactly wrong - I think the Peace Process can survive more law enforcement. And without law enforcement it isn’t a peace process. Just giving criminals control.

    It’s the governments in London, Dublin and Stormont who don’t agree with that.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,379
    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .
  • eekeek Posts: 34,060
    Survation getting their excuses in early I see.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    Falling a bit short on Reithian values.

    BBC presenter Ashley Cain called women ‘slags’, ‘sluts’ and ‘bitches’

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2026/jun/17/bbc-presenter-ashley-cain-called-women-slags-sluts-bitches
    ..BBC executives perceived Cain as someone who could appeal to younger male audiences, particularly on Instagram and YouTube. In a press release to announce season one of Into the Danger Zone, Ricky Cooper, a BBC commissioning editor, described Cain as someone who “connects with young men in a truly exceptional way”. In an event for the Royal Television Society in 2025, another BBC commissioning editor, Nasfim Haque, said: “Ashley is what BBC Three is about – a new talent giving us a new perspective.”..

    The detail in the story is considerably worse than the headline. This character is vile, and has no place in public service broadcasting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,817
    Dumbosaurus said:

    @TheScreamingEagles typo in thingy, should be 59.99 not 55.99

    Ta.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,052
    I'm not sure this theory is right. Turnout in the mayoral election was only 32% so it's not as if overwhelmingly more people voted for Burnham than voted Labour in the GE.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,652
    Pollsters finding it very difficult to find people who voted Reform in 2024.
    Maybe Sandy's dream was clairvoyant?*

    *He reported having dreamt Burnham on 60%+.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,652
    The 3-1 offered about 50-54.99% looks value here.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,105
    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The circumstances are always unique Nico.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 8,379
    Benpointer said:

    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The circumstances are always unique Nico.
    The by-election has turned into a proxy vote for PM in an area where Burnham is popular . I can’t think of any previous by-election where that’s the case .
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,499
    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The result makes no difference at all to the most interesting question for the country, more or less never asked: What are the compelling reasons for the belief that Burnham will be an excellent PM in each respect that excellence is required?
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,362
    1.7

    About the percent he Tories will get
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 28,924
    edited 3:18PM
    nico67 said:

    Benpointer said:

    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The circumstances are always unique Nico.
    The by-election has turned into a proxy vote for PM in an area where Burnham is popular . I can’t think of any previous by-election where that’s the case .
    Technically,
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,499
    nico67 said:

    Benpointer said:

    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The circumstances are always unique Nico.
    The by-election has turned into a proxy vote for PM in an area where Burnham is popular . I can’t think of any previous by-election where that’s the case .
    The voters have little power over the matter. Their little task of electing Burnham (if they do) is necessary but not sufficient. Only the MPs and the members have any sort of decision making powers.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 13,516
    Malmesbury said:

    a

    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    On the riots in Belfast and the failure to tackle Loyalist groups: https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/elon-musk-belfast-pogrom-lee-hurley

    But the Peace Process is so wonderful!
    Yes it is with some reasonably obvious caveats. Would you want to return to the car bombs exploding outside the Europa Hotel every five minutes?
    So race riots are an acceptable price?

    Or should we risk a certain amount of disorder to clamp down on criminal behaviour?
    I added provisos but I stand by my evaluation.

    Perfect is the enemy of good.
    Which is the kind of reasoning that has been used to avoid dealing with gangsters running the streets.

    The belief that any kind of law enforcement against them “risks the peace process”
    But most people think that's not the case and we could have a bit more law enforcement without any jeopardy to the peace process. Whereas you appear to think that the entire peace process was a mistake.
    Which is exactly wrong - I think the Peace Process can survive more law enforcement. And without law enforcement it isn’t a peace process. Just giving criminals control.

    It’s the governments in London, Dublin and Stormont who don’t agree with that.
    You could question whether the stormont government is independent of criminal control. Nothing has changed since the days of James Craig
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,950
    Seems the 'Putney pusher' may have been found.



    Have we heard from @Topping recently?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 37,105
    nico67 said:

    Benpointer said:

    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The circumstances are always unique Nico.
    The by-election has turned into a proxy vote for PM in an area where Burnham is popular . I can’t think of any previous by-election where that’s the case .
    I don't disagree.
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 690
    Are they counting overnight or waiting for Friday?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605

    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    MightyAlex said:

    Seems the 'Putney pusher' may have been found.



    Have we heard from @Topping recently?

    I hope it's not @peter_from_putney
  • MattWMattW Posts: 33,683
    edited 3:28PM
    Mexicanpete said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Seems the 'Putney pusher' may have been found.

    Have we heard from @Topping recently?

    I hope it's not @peter_from_putney
    @Topping is keeping it under his hat.

    (With the marmalade sandwich.)
  • Sweeney74Sweeney74 Posts: 690
    From The Times:
    The prime minister heaped praise on Burnham, calling him “a great asset” and saying he deserved “a big role in government”.


    Yeah, PM...


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    edited 3:30PM
    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,898
    edited 3:32PM
    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067267739262042616

    @ElectionMapsUK
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 27% (-2)
    CON: 20% (+2)
    LAB: 19% (-2)
    LDM: 12% (+2)
    GRN: 11% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    RES: 2% (New)

    Via @Survation, 11-15 Jun. Changes w/ 5 Mar.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 23,344
    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    I think you can say that Iran 'won' the war, but to do so they also played their Trump card - closing the Straights. I assume all affected nations have looked at this and thought - how do we ensure this cannot happen again, be it pipelines, or canals or whatever it takes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,434
    edited 3:39PM
    Let's see what happens with recent national opinion polls for these pollsters.

    Survation - Both Labour (268->243) and Reform (111->103) 2024GE voters are downweighted, Labour by a little bit more.

    More in Common - Both Labour (577->367) and Reform (224->156) 2024GE voters are downweighted, though Labour by a little bit more.

    Opinium - Sample has very little weighting to correct sample for 2024GE past vote.

    So my assumption would have been that Labour voters would have been easier to find, and overrepresented in the sample compared to Reform voters, but there isn't much of a difference in national opinion polls.

    Obviously getting a sample for a constituency poll is a lot harder, so not directly comparable to a national poll, but I think this is some supporting evidence for the idea in the header.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,287
    "Next Labour leader must abandon migrant crackdown, says union boss

    The next Labour leader must abandon the party’s crackdown on migration, the boss of Britain’s largest trade union has demanded.

    Andrea Egan, the general secretary of Unison, described reforms to the asylum system brought forward by Sir Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood as “a betrayal of our most basic values”.

    Her remarks will probably put Unison on a collision course with Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, who are expected to challenge the Prime Minister after the Makerfield by-election on Thursday."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/17/makerfield-live-news-keir-starmer-labour-burnham-streeting/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    turbotubbs said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    I think you can say that Iran 'won' the war, but to do so they also played their Trump card - closing the Straights. I assume all affected nations have looked at this and thought - how do we ensure this cannot happen again, be it pipelines, or canals or whatever it takes.
    Richard Littlejohn from his gated community in Florida was never so ashamed to be British when Starmer didn't back up Trump over Iran.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,095
    Mexicanpete said:

    turbotubbs said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    I think you can say that Iran 'won' the war, but to do so they also played their Trump card - closing the Straights. I assume all affected nations have looked at this and thought - how do we ensure this cannot happen again, be it pipelines, or canals or whatever it takes.
    Richard Littlejohn from his gated community in Florida was never so ashamed to be British when Starmer didn't back up Trump over Iran.
    I'm rarely more ashamed to be British than when I hear about Richard Littlejohn.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,095
    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    That is very harsh. The Trump Crime Family will have made hundreds of millions insider trading, plus a few billion in bungs from defence firms across the world. So it certainly wasn't for nothing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,287
    "Starmer warns Burnham against leadership challenge if he wins Makerfield by-election"

    https://www.itv.com/news/2026-06-17/starmer-warns-burnham-against-leadership-challenge-if-he-wins-by-election
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 28,095
    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The result makes no difference at all to the most interesting question for the country, more or less never asked: What are the compelling reasons for the belief that Burnham will be an excellent PM in each respect that excellence is required?
    No-one, literally no-one is going to be an excellent PM in these conditions. An adequate one is realistically hard to find.

    The evidence is he will be far better than Starmer at comms and a bit worse on delivery. Probably a small win for the Labour party and a small loss for the country.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,434
    turbotubbs said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    I think you can say that Iran 'won' the war, but to do so they also played their Trump card - closing the Straights. I assume all affected nations have looked at this and thought - how do we ensure this cannot happen again, be it pipelines, or canals or whatever it takes.
    The Straits have obviously been very important, particularly in terms of pushing up gas prices in the US, and so damaging Trump directly.

    But they weren't the only card Iran had to play. It was also the case that they were able to target military and fossil fuel infrastructure across the Middle East throughout the conflict, causing damage to US military bases and to oil and gas infrastructure, even after weeks of US strikes aimed at destroying their missile and drone capability.

    We saw this previously with the Houthis, whee the US (& Britain, etc) were not able to prevent them Houthis from launching drones at ships in the Red Sea.

    And we also see this in the Russo-Ukraine war, where thus far neither side is able to destroy the other's capability to launch long-range strikes.

    So it would be reasonable to assume that Iran will have the capability to hit oil and gas infrastructure across the middle east in a future conflict, albeit they will have to do a lot of damage to match the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 24,434
    noneoftheabove said:

    algarkirk said:

    nico67 said:

    The media and many Labour MPs might end up reading too much into a clear Burnham victory .

    The circumstances are unique and should be viewed with that in mind .

    The result makes no difference at all to the most interesting question for the country, more or less never asked: What are the compelling reasons for the belief that Burnham will be an excellent PM in each respect that excellence is required?
    No-one, literally no-one is going to be an excellent PM in these conditions. An adequate one is realistically hard to find.

    The evidence is he will be far better than Starmer at comms and a bit worse on delivery. Probably a small win for the Labour party and a small loss for the country.
    The best that any Prime Minister can hope to achieve in the current circumstances is to make the job of their replacement easier - but that seems to be the last thing any of them want to do!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 128,817
    Andy Burnham will turn down any job he is offered by Keir Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election.

    The prime minister hinted on Wednesday that he is prepared to give the Greater Manchester mayor a key post in his cabinet if he becomes an MP again after a nine-year absence from Westminster.

    He said: “Oh, Andy is a great asset. And, yes, I want him to have a big role in government.”

    But a source on Burnham’s campaign team insisted he will not accept a job from Starmer.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/andy-burnham-turn-down-job-135706493.html
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    No, the line is that Trump let them down.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,346
    MightyAlex said:

    Seems the 'Putney pusher' may have been found.



    Have we heard from @Topping recently?

    TOPPLING...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    turbotubbs said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    I think you can say that Iran 'won' the war, but to do so they also played their Trump card - closing the Straights. I assume all affected nations have looked at this and thought - how do we ensure this cannot happen again, be it pipelines, or canals or whatever it takes.
    The upside is that Trump's efforts have shown them they don't necessarily need nuclear weapons to hold the world to ransom ...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    edited 4:12PM
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    No, the line is that Trump let them down.
    At the G7 presser,Trump sounds defensive and defeated despite the lies and the utter gibberish. Once again Evan Davis sane washing the nonsense.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,052
    edited 4:11PM
    Dopermean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Andy Burnham will turn down any job he is offered by Keir Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election.

    The prime minister hinted on Wednesday that he is prepared to give the Greater Manchester mayor a key post in his cabinet if he becomes an MP again after a nine-year absence from Westminster.

    He said: “Oh, Andy is a great asset. And, yes, I want him to have a big role in government.”

    But a source on Burnham’s campaign team insisted he will not accept a job from Starmer.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/andy-burnham-turn-down-job-135706493.html

    For someone rejected by the Labour membership twice, 8.7% and 19%, he's an entitled twat
    Not even David Davis thought that his vanity by-election was a mandate to be given the leadership, let alone become PM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    rottenborough said:


    Michael McFaul
    @McFaul

    Iran won this war. By closing the Strait of Hormuz, they forced Trump to capitulate without achieving any of his major war objectives.

    I hope future presidents will study the lessons of this defeat. Too many people died, and too much money was spent for nothing.

    https://x.com/McFaul/status/2067236048439329212

    The Iran War fanbois and girl who were urging Starmer to hang onto Trump's coattails all seem to have left the building.
    No, the line is that Trump let them down.
    At the presser,Trump sounds defeated despite the lies and the utter gibberish.
    He doesn't look well - even more than usual.

    JD may become president after all, but still won't be elected to the post.
    The Betfair market is for the latter thing, isn't it ?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,346


    Quota, in deepest LibDemShire.

    I feel all Emily Thornberry.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    carnforth said:



    Quota, in deepest LibDemShire.

    I feel all Emily Thornberry.

    With your cap in the window I am surprised they didn't leave you alone.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 3,210
    Mexicanpete said:

    carnforth said:



    Quota, in deepest LibDemShire.

    I feel all Emily Thornberry.

    With your cap in the window I am surprised they didn't leave you alone.
    Did the warden not realize the reg is for a red Nissan Micra?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,572
    On topic: 33/1 for >60%.

    I had a dream, so must be true.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 2,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Andy Burnham will turn down any job he is offered by Keir Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election.

    The prime minister hinted on Wednesday that he is prepared to give the Greater Manchester mayor a key post in his cabinet if he becomes an MP again after a nine-year absence from Westminster.

    He said: “Oh, Andy is a great asset. And, yes, I want him to have a big role in government.”

    But a source on Burnham’s campaign team insisted he will not accept a job from Starmer.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/andy-burnham-turn-down-job-135706493.html

    He would be idiotic to accept any offer to join Starmer's Cabinet

    His best hope is Streeting and possibly a Clive Lewis type both move next week.

    He can them claim he has to go for it now and as the unifying candidate between right and left.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    Ouch.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 25,572
    Dopermean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Andy Burnham will turn down any job he is offered by Keir Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election.

    The prime minister hinted on Wednesday that he is prepared to give the Greater Manchester mayor a key post in his cabinet if he becomes an MP again after a nine-year absence from Westminster.

    He said: “Oh, Andy is a great asset. And, yes, I want him to have a big role in government.”

    But a source on Burnham’s campaign team insisted he will not accept a job from Starmer.

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/andy-burnham-turn-down-job-135706493.html

    For someone rejected by the Labour membership twice, 8.7% and 19%, he's an entitled twat
    He certainly is.

    May I suggest a thread title in the event he wins:

    "The Ego has Landed."
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    Nigelb said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    Ouch.
    No, and every post a winner.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 90,002
    Another part of the DIP about to go tits up ?

    Non-committal answer from @LukePollard
    re Precision Strike Missile, which had been seen as at the heart of the @BritishArmy deep fires modernisation. I hear that a combination of massively escalating costs, as well as no guaranteed delivery slots has made PrSM really unattractive..
    https://x.com/FTusa284/status/2067237007588208695

    Relying on Lockheed to deliver on time and on budget isn't really a plan.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 55,516
    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 22,124
    Sweeney74 said:

    Are they counting overnight or waiting for Friday?

    Overnight.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
    Happy now?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 40,287
    Are Aberdeen South and Arbroath & Broughton Ferry also counting overnight?
  • eekeek Posts: 34,060
    Nigelb said:

    Another part of the DIP about to go tits up ?

    Non-committal answer from @LukePollard
    re Precision Strike Missile, which had been seen as at the heart of the @BritishArmy deep fires modernisation. I hear that a combination of massively escalating costs, as well as no guaranteed delivery slots has made PrSM really unattractive..
    https://x.com/FTusa284/status/2067237007588208695

    Relying on Lockheed to deliver on time and on budget isn't really a plan.

    It is if the plan is a work of complete fiction. You would expect everyone in Defence to know that overruns in both time and budget are continual..
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,978
    tlg86 said:

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/2067267739262042616

    @ElectionMapsUK
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 27% (-2)
    CON: 20% (+2)
    LAB: 19% (-2)
    LDM: 12% (+2)
    GRN: 11% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (+1)
    RES: 2% (New)

    Via @Survation, 11-15 Jun. Changes w/ 5 Mar.

    Sleazy, broken Reform, Labour, and Greens on the slide!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,978
    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
    Happy now?
    I'm always a saddo :lol:
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,346
    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
    The problem is that, when you tick "display my profile publicly" you see your email address on your profile page when logged in. Other people don't, but you do. So there's no way to verify you're not self-doxxing, except by logging out and checking the profile.

    If your email address identifies you, it's a bit scary.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,384
    Nigelb said:

    Another part of the DIP about to go tits up ?

    Non-committal answer from @LukePollard
    re Precision Strike Missile, which had been seen as at the heart of the @BritishArmy deep fires modernisation. I hear that a combination of massively escalating costs, as well as no guaranteed delivery slots has made PrSM really unattractive..
    https://x.com/FTusa284/status/2067237007588208695

    Relying on Lockheed to deliver on time and on budget isn't really a plan.

    Brought to you by "Invest in Ukraine"
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,978
    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
    The problem is that, when you tick "display my profile publicly" you see your email address on your profile page when logged in. Other people don't, but you do. So there's no way to verify you're not self-doxxing, except by logging out and checking the profile.

    If your email address identifies you, it's a bit scary.
    You can only see your own email, not other people's.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 6,370
    edited 4:44PM
    Sweeney74 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Next Labour leader must abandon migrant crackdown, says union boss

    The next Labour leader must abandon the party’s crackdown on migration, the boss of Britain’s largest trade union has demanded.

    Andrea Egan, the general secretary of Unison, described reforms to the asylum system brought forward by Sir Keir Starmer and Shabana Mahmood as “a betrayal of our most basic values”.

    Her remarks will probably put Unison on a collision course with Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, who are expected to challenge the Prime Minister after the Makerfield by-election on Thursday."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/06/17/makerfield-live-news-keir-starmer-labour-burnham-streeting/

    This has always been Labour’s fundamental tension. The traditional labour movement was built around working-class communities whose priorities were jobs, wages, housing and economic security, and many were socially quite conservative. The modern progressive wing is much more rooted in academia, the professions and activist circles, with a stronger focus on cultural and identity issues.

    The problem for Labour is that these groups increasingly disagree on things like immigration. Union leaders and activists often assume they’re speaking for “the base”, but many ordinary union members and working-class voters hold rather different views.
    Not just Labour - the Conservatives had an exactly analogous tension, between big business that wants more cheap, skilled and willing labour and the membership that would send the Navy to sink every small boat if it had its way.

    All successful political parties are coalitions, and the more divided a country gets, the more those splits show.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,346
    edited 4:45PM
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
    The problem is that, when you tick "display my profile publicly" you see your email address on your profile page when logged in. Other people don't, but you do. So there's no way to verify you're not self-doxxing, except by logging out and checking the profile.

    If your email address identifies you, it's a bit scary.
    You can only see your own email, not other people's.
    That's what I said...

    (There is another tick-box to show your email to everyone, adding to the confusion...)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,181
    Some polling relevant to the social media ban: https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54969-eight-in-ten-parents-say-social-media-use-has-a-negative-impact-on-children

    Looking at the party splits, this is a policy aimed at Labour and LibDem voters, with Reform voters least concerned about social media ills.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,978
    carnforth said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
    The problem is that, when you tick "display my profile publicly" you see your email address on your profile page when logged in. Other people don't, but you do. So there's no way to verify you're not self-doxxing, except by logging out and checking the profile.

    If your email address identifies you, it's a bit scary.
    You can only see your own email, not other people's.
    That's what I said...
    So not a problem, then?

    I see my email on my own profile, but I can't see Mexicanpete's on his.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,181
    Malmesbury said:

    a

    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    On the riots in Belfast and the failure to tackle Loyalist groups: https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/elon-musk-belfast-pogrom-lee-hurley

    But the Peace Process is so wonderful!
    Yes it is with some reasonably obvious caveats. Would you want to return to the car bombs exploding outside the Europa Hotel every five minutes?
    So race riots are an acceptable price?

    Or should we risk a certain amount of disorder to clamp down on criminal behaviour?
    I added provisos but I stand by my evaluation.

    Perfect is the enemy of good.
    Which is the kind of reasoning that has been used to avoid dealing with gangsters running the streets.

    The belief that any kind of law enforcement against them “risks the peace process”
    But most people think that's not the case and we could have a bit more law enforcement without any jeopardy to the peace process. Whereas you appear to think that the entire peace process was a mistake.
    Which is exactly wrong - I think the Peace Process can survive more law enforcement. And without law enforcement it isn’t a peace process. Just giving criminals control.

    It’s the governments in London, Dublin and Stormont who don’t agree with that.
    Well, then, try to express yourself more clearly!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,346
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    carnforth said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    carnforth said:

    IanB2 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Nigelb said:

    Isn't this just Downing St talk from Starmer about what might happen in by-elections ?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4dj7n83yqo
    ..Asked about Streeting's threat, Sir Keir said: "There is Westminster talk about what might happen in by-elections.
    "Meanwhile, I would just gently point out, that we do have a Manchester mayoralty by-election which will follow immediately on if Andy Burnham wins the by-election...

    Congratulations on reaching the 90,000 mark.
    At least he's following the site rules, with an unlocked profile.....
    The problem is that, when you tick "display my profile publicly" you see your email address on your profile page when logged in. Other people don't, but you do. So there's no way to verify you're not self-doxxing, except by logging out and checking the profile.

    If your email address identifies you, it's a bit scary.
    You can only see your own email, not other people's.
    That's what I said...
    So not a problem, then?

    I see my email on my own profile, but I can't see Mexicanpete's on his.
    My point is it takes some effort to convince oneself of this fact. If it were the case that any logged-in user could see the email, you'd have to create a second account to check that. Checking logged-out isn't even fully convincing.

    If the language of the two tickboxes were changed to "Show my profile (but not email address)" and "Show my email address" it would be clearer.

    Or, if one's own profile showed the email address followed by "(this is not shown to other users)".
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,499
    It seems to me that a lot fewer people than usual are flying England flags for football purposes both on houses, pubs etc and in cars. (North Cumberland.) Is this true more generally?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 36,577
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Another part of the DIP about to go tits up ?

    Non-committal answer from @LukePollard
    re Precision Strike Missile, which had been seen as at the heart of the @BritishArmy deep fires modernisation. I hear that a combination of massively escalating costs, as well as no guaranteed delivery slots has made PrSM really unattractive..
    https://x.com/FTusa284/status/2067237007588208695

    Relying on Lockheed to deliver on time and on budget isn't really a plan.

    It is if the plan is a work of complete fiction. You would expect everyone in Defence to know that overruns in both time and budget are continual..
    The perennial cry is for the MoD to buy foreign arms off the shelf rather than build it here but this leaves us at the back of the queue (where have I heard that phrase before?) when the host country shoots all its own inventory in the Middle East.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605
    carnforth said:



    Quota, in deepest LibDemShire.

    I feel all Emily Thornberry.

    This was outside Gails presumably?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 60,052
    algarkirk said:

    It seems to me that a lot fewer people than usual are flying England flags for football purposes both on houses, pubs etc and in cars. (North Cumberland.) Is this true more generally?

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2067276118529384667

    Green party-led Bristol city council has banned residents from flying the England flag during the World Cup because its "making migrants feel uncomfortable"
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,929
    Andy_JS said:

    Are Aberdeen South and Arbroath & Broughton Ferry also counting overnight?

    Depends if Broughton ferry can dock
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 17,499
    bondegezou said:

    Some polling relevant to the social media ban: https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/54969-eight-in-ten-parents-say-social-media-use-has-a-negative-impact-on-children

    Looking at the party splits, this is a policy aimed at Labour and LibDem voters, with Reform voters least concerned about social media ills.

    Vote Reform. My 10 year old grandchild can look forward after 2029 to riding with the Torpenhow otter hounds with a glass in one hand, a fag in the other while scrolling through beheading videos. It's not all bad.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605
    edited 4:58PM
    One of the most humiliating episodes in American history frankly and one that will cause massive problems for years to come:

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    The US has circulated its version of the Memo of Understanding with Iran to G7 leaders in France. It’s as bad if not worse than expected.

    ...

    America will now become a partner with the tyrants of Tehran, who Trump only recently wanted to overthrow, in rebuilding their economy.


    When Trump insisted the war would only end with ‘unconditional surrender’ it never crossed my mind he meant his own.

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2067264423660556777







  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,346
    rottenborough said:

    carnforth said:



    Quota, in deepest LibDemShire.

    I feel all Emily Thornberry.

    This was outside Gails presumably?
    Our Gails doesn't open until mid-July!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605
    Donald Trump wants his name and face on everything—office buildings, banners, passports, palatial ballrooms, $250 bills, stimulus checks, arts centers. He has held public signings for nearly every executive order and piece of legislation (except for the bill on releasing the Epstein files, which was signed in secret).

    And yet, Trump is nowhere to be found on his Big Beautiful Surrender Deal with Iran. That thing? Oh, that belongs to JD Vance. He’s the one defending it. He’s the one who will be signing it. The vice president owns it.

    The Bulwark
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605
    carnforth said:

    rottenborough said:

    carnforth said:



    Quota, in deepest LibDemShire.

    I feel all Emily Thornberry.

    This was outside Gails presumably?
    Our Gails doesn't open until mid-July!
    He's gonna get a lot of tickets waiting there until mid July.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605
    algarkirk said:

    It seems to me that a lot fewer people than usual are flying England flags for football purposes both on houses, pubs etc and in cars. (North Cumberland.) Is this true more generally?

    So far in the boondocks of the midlands I have seen one single car with an england flag and not a single house or window.

    So, yes, I think you are correct.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 72,605
    Rubio looks like he needs to leave the room to be sick at the Trump G7 press statement.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    Chris Mason on 6 o clock news saying Rob the plumber winning Makerfield sends Labour into a (death?) spiral.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,652
    NickPalmer said:

    Sweeney74 said:

    Are they counting overnight or waiting for Friday?

    Overnight.
    Expected 4 to 5 am.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,798
    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    a

    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    On the riots in Belfast and the failure to tackle Loyalist groups: https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/elon-musk-belfast-pogrom-lee-hurley

    But the Peace Process is so wonderful!
    Yes it is with some reasonably obvious caveats. Would you want to return to the car bombs exploding outside the Europa Hotel every five minutes?
    So race riots are an acceptable price?

    Or should we risk a certain amount of disorder to clamp down on criminal behaviour?
    I added provisos but I stand by my evaluation.

    Perfect is the enemy of good.
    Which is the kind of reasoning that has been used to avoid dealing with gangsters running the streets.

    The belief that any kind of law enforcement against them “risks the peace process”
    But most people think that's not the case and we could have a bit more law enforcement without any jeopardy to the peace process. Whereas you appear to think that the entire peace process was a mistake.
    Which is exactly wrong - I think the Peace Process can survive more law enforcement. And without law enforcement it isn’t a peace process. Just giving criminals control.

    It’s the governments in London, Dublin and Stormont who don’t agree with that.
    Well, then, try to express yourself more clearly!
    OK

    Let’s fix the Peace Process


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 59,978
    algarkirk said:

    It seems to me that a lot fewer people than usual are flying England flags for football purposes both on houses, pubs etc and in cars. (North Cumberland.) Is this true more generally?

    You've got to hold and give, but do it at the right time
    You can be slow or fast, but you must get to the line
    They'll always hit you and hurt you, defend and attack
    There's only one way to beat them, get round the back
    Catch me if you can, cause I'm the England man
    And what you're looking at is the master plan
    We ain't no hooligans, this ain't a football song
    Three lions on my chest, I know we can't go wrong
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,384
    Mexicanpete said:

    Chris Mason on 6 o clock news saying Rob the plumber winning Makerfield sends Labour into a (death?) spiral.

    BBC are culling their news team. Wonder if he is on the list?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 40,050
    Battlebus said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Chris Mason on 6 o clock news saying Rob the plumber winning Makerfield sends Labour into a (death?) spiral.

    BBC are culling their news team. Wonder if he is on the list?
    Surely he and Kuennsberg stay. All the good ones go.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,181
    Ummm..



    This appears to be real…?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 3,384
    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    a

    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    On the riots in Belfast and the failure to tackle Loyalist groups: https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/elon-musk-belfast-pogrom-lee-hurley

    But the Peace Process is so wonderful!
    Yes it is with some reasonably obvious caveats. Would you want to return to the car bombs exploding outside the Europa Hotel every five minutes?
    So race riots are an acceptable price?

    Or should we risk a certain amount of disorder to clamp down on criminal behaviour?
    I added provisos but I stand by my evaluation.

    Perfect is the enemy of good.
    Which is the kind of reasoning that has been used to avoid dealing with gangsters running the streets.

    The belief that any kind of law enforcement against them “risks the peace process”
    But most people think that's not the case and we could have a bit more law enforcement without any jeopardy to the peace process. Whereas you appear to think that the entire peace process was a mistake.
    Which is exactly wrong - I think the Peace Process can survive more law enforcement. And without law enforcement it isn’t a peace process. Just giving criminals control.

    It’s the governments in London, Dublin and Stormont who don’t agree with that.
    Well, then, try to express yourself more clearly!
    OK

    Let’s fix the Peace Process


    Relative of mine did that. Dealt with the various bombs and devices. Got a medal for it. How he managed to have the coolness to do it we can't work out but we're glad he did and survived.

    Now Work with veterans, a lot of whom were in NI. And after all this time, the mental scars are still there. God knows what the average person in NI is like, if the veterans are like they are.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 32,652
    bondegezou said:

    Ummm..



    This appears to be real…?

    Indeed it has been admitted so. Liked by a number of newly elected Wigan councillors.
    A sign of the crazy times is many people automatically believed it was AI.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 21,181
    edited 5:21PM
    williamglenn said:

    algarkirk said:

    It seems to me that a lot fewer people than usual are flying England flags for football purposes both on houses, pubs etc and in cars. (North Cumberland.) Is this true more generally?

    https://x.com/GBPolitcs/status/2067276118529384667

    Green party-led Bristol city council has banned residents from flying the England flag during the World Cup because its "making migrants feel uncomfortable"
    A lie, or half of one. See https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/world-cup-2026-flags-england-banned-green-council-5Hjdbgx_2/ The council has banned flags for the same reason lots of councils have, health & safety, and it’s banned them from things like lampposts. People have been encouraged to fly flags at home.

    Please don’t post lies, William.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 63,798
    Battlebus said:

    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    a

    bondegezou said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Malmesbury said:

    bondegezou said:

    On the riots in Belfast and the failure to tackle Loyalist groups: https://www.thehandbasket.co/p/elon-musk-belfast-pogrom-lee-hurley

    But the Peace Process is so wonderful!
    Yes it is with some reasonably obvious caveats. Would you want to return to the car bombs exploding outside the Europa Hotel every five minutes?
    So race riots are an acceptable price?

    Or should we risk a certain amount of disorder to clamp down on criminal behaviour?
    I added provisos but I stand by my evaluation.

    Perfect is the enemy of good.
    Which is the kind of reasoning that has been used to avoid dealing with gangsters running the streets.

    The belief that any kind of law enforcement against them “risks the peace process”
    But most people think that's not the case and we could have a bit more law enforcement without any jeopardy to the peace process. Whereas you appear to think that the entire peace process was a mistake.
    Which is exactly wrong - I think the Peace Process can survive more law enforcement. And without law enforcement it isn’t a peace process. Just giving criminals control.

    It’s the governments in London, Dublin and Stormont who don’t agree with that.
    Well, then, try to express yourself more clearly!
    OK

    Let’s fix the Peace Process


    Relative of mine did that. Dealt with the various bombs and devices. Got a medal for it. How he managed to have the coolness to do it we can't work out but we're glad he did and survived.

    Now Work with veterans, a lot of whom were in NI. And after all this time, the mental scars are still there. God knows what the average person in NI is like, if the veterans are like they are.
    They range from boringly normal to Fucked In Da Head.

    Mainly a function of how close they were to events.

    Most people saw nothing apart from a few riots and army patrols. And those were in specific areas.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 9,346
    edited 5:22PM
    bondegezou said:

    Ummm..



    This appears to be real…?

    Awful. It would flow so much better with "I'd" instead of "I would". And "Andy Burnham" instead of "Labour".
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